BSB NFL Two-a-Days: Week Twelve

Week Eleven was the first week since Week Three with a full slate of 16 games, so you know that we’re getting into the crucial part of this NFL season.  A fantastic slate of Week Twelve games should help separate the men from the boys.

Thursday, November 25 (Thanksgiving Day):
12:30 – New England (8-2) at DETROIT (3-7)
I have done this for a number of years now, and I always want to pick Dallas and Detroit on Thanksgiving because I think (a) it’s a big advantage to be at home on short weeks, in general, but I think it’s an even bigger advantage for these two because they play this game every year and should be accostomed to it.  The Lions never come through, but I still haven’t learned.  I’m going with the Lions because of exactly what I just said, coupled with the fact that the Pats are coming off of a brutal game with Indianapolis last week and are looking ahead to an AFC East showdown with the Jets next week.  This is a real “trap” game on the road on Thanksgiving.

4:15 – New Orleans (8-2) at DALLAS (7-3)
This is a fantastic Thanksgiving Day game!  It should be a lot of fun to root for the Saints after a great turkey dinner, but I like the Cowboys here because, as I said, above, I like Dallas and Detroit on Thanksgiving because they do it every year.

8:20 – CINCINNATI (6-4) at N.Y. Jets (7-3)
Now, unlike the two early games with the common home teams, I think that it might be a bad thing to be at home for the night game on Thanksgiving Day.  The Jets will be home with their families and then have to play a game that night.  The Bengals will be on just another road trip.  Plus, the Jets have one of their biggest games of the year next week against New England.  I like the Bengals on the road here.

Sunday, November 28:
1:00 – Jacksonville (4-6) at N.Y. GIANTS (5-5)
I really wanted to go with the Jags here, but I couldn’t pull the trigger.  The Giants have a bit of a trap game here with the Eagles last week and the Redskins next week, but my reverse bias is killing me here.  I’m terrified that if I really pick the Giants to lose at home to Jacksonville, my credibility will be shot, so in an effort to save face, I’ll take the G-men here.  I don’t really believe it, though.

1:00 – PITTSBURGH (5-5) at Buffalo (1-9)
The Steelers may really need this game, and it’s a good spot to be in because the Bills stink.  The weather may not be very cooperative, but the Steelers are no strangers to bad weather.

1:00 – Tennessee (6-4) at HOUSTON (5-5)
Time for the Texans to circle the wagons here with a home game against Tennessee that could mean their season.  Though Houston might be looking ahead with a short week coming up, I still like them to take care of business here against their division foes.

1:00 – MINNESOTA (4-6) at Washington (3-7)
The Vikings may be coming off an emotional game at home against the Packers, but they might also be staring at their season right here.  I think that they are just much more talented than the ‘Skins and should be able to go into FedEx and win.

1:00 – Philadelphia (7-3) at CHICAGO (6-4)
November in Soldier Field is not a good place for a team that throws the ball 65% of the time.  Especially not when coming off of a tough game against the Giants and staring at a short week–a Thursday game next week.  Throw in the fact that they have to face a rested Bears team that played on Thursday last week and this is a recipe for a bad loss in the Windy City.

1:00 – GREEN BAY (7-3) at Atlanta (8-2)
Man, the schedule gods are fair, aren’t they?  They completely crushed the Falcons last year with just atrocious circumstances and this year, they are rewarded with an incredibly favorable set of circumstances surrounding their schedule.  They get to face a Green Bay team that is coming off their biggest win of the year–at Minnesota–and they get them at home.  This is still a really tough game to predict, and I’m still going with Rodgers and the Packers here, but it’s very, very close and could easily go the other way.

1:00 – Tampa Bay (1-9) at BALTIMORE (6-4)
After merely surviving the brutal beginning of their schedule, the Ravens are getting a couple breaks here.

1:00 – CAROLINA (6-4) at Cleveland (2-8)
The Panthers are coming off of a nasty game against Baltimore when they go into Cleveland here in Week Twelve.  I’m not exactly sure why, but this strikes me as the type of game where the Browns could shock Carolina and put a real shot to their playoff hopes, but in the end, I have to believe that John Fox will get his guys ready to play here.

4:05 – Kansas City (4-6) at SEATTLE (1-9)
Seattle’s a tough place to play, even when the team is 1-9.  I think this might be the week where things start to click a little for Pete Carroll and the boys.  And, picking the Chiefs to lose on the road is not exactly going out on a limb.

4:05 – MIAMI (4-6) at Oakland (7-3)
This is probably going to be a huge game in Week Twelve, no matter how the beginning of the season plays out.  Miami should be, at least, in it, and Oakland could be making some noise, like predicted here.  But, either way, this is a really tough spot for the Raiders.  The Dolphins have 10 days to prepare for this on, while the Raiders are coming back from a road game in Pittsburgh.  Plus, the Raiders have division-leading San Diego next week, so they might be looking ahead a bit.  I like Sparano and the Dolphins to go into the Black Hole and steal one.

4:15 – St. Louis (1-9) at DENVER (3-7)
The Broncos are not good, and they are coming off of a Monday night game in San Diego.  But, I’m just not ready to pick the Rams to beat anybody on the road.

8:20 – San Diego (8-2) at INDIANAPOLIS (8-2)
Time for Peyton and company to flex their muscles in the AFC.  Coming off of a loss to the Pats, the Colts might really need and want this one, at home, to prove themselves the best of the conference again.  And, not that this game won’t have all their attention, but the Chargers do have a big divisional game with the Raiders next week, as well.  I like the Colts easy in this one.

Monday, November 29:
8:30 – San Francisco (6-4) at ARIZONA (3-7)
Not so fast on everyone’s belief in the 49ers.  Let’s remember who their quarterback is.  Monday night with the Packers on the schedule in six short days, this is definitely a game that this team could throw away.  I like the Cardinals in an expression of their professional pride here.

STANDINGS AFTER WEEK 12
NFC EAST
8-3 Dallas
7-4 Philadelphia
6-5 N.Y. Giants
3-8 Washington

I think we can stick a fork in the Deadskins now.  The Eagles suffer a huge loss in Chicago, while the Cowboys and Giants pick up really big wins.  It’s Dallas’s division to lose now, but they still have two games left with Philly, so that should tell the tale.

NFC NORTH
8-3 Green Bay
7-4 Chicago
5-6 Minnesota
4-7 Detroit

This division goes a very impressive 4-0 in Week Twelve, as the Packers get a huge win in Atlanta, the Vikings win in Washington, the Lions beat Dallas, and the Bears beat Philly.  That’s an incredible week for the North.

NFC SOUTH
8-3 New Orleans
8-3 Atlanta
7-4 Carolina
1-10 Tampa Bay

The Falcons fail to take advantage of the Saints loss on Thanksgiving, as they lose on Sunday.  The Panthers get another big win on the road at Cleveland.

NFC WEST
6-5 San Francisco
4-7 Arizona
2-9 Seattle
1-10 St. Louis

Hold up the printing of those banners for just a second.  The Cardinals beat the Niners on Monday night to insert the tiniest bit of drama back into the West.

AFC EAST
8-3 New England
7-4 N.Y. Jets
5-6 Miami
1-10 Buffalo

The Pats and Jets both lose on Thanksgiving, in approach of their big showdown in Week Thirteen.  The Dolphins win again to stay in the discussion.

AFC NORTH
7-4 Baltimore
7-4 Cincinnati
6-5 Pittsburgh
2-9 Cleveland

The big three all win again, as this division is going to be nasty down the stretch.  The Browns barely lose at home to Carolina for their 9th consecutive defeat.

AFC SOUTH
9-2 Indianapolis
6-5 Houston
6-5 Tennessee
4-7 Jacksonville

The Texans get a gigantic win at home against Tennessee.  The Colts beat the Chargers to reiterate the fact that they are the AFC’s team to beat.

AFC WEST
8-3 San Diego
7-4 Oakland
4-7 Denver
4-7 Kansas City

Only the Broncos win this week.  The big losers were the Raiders, who lost at home to Miami in a game that could have tied them with San Diego heading into their big game against each other next week.

PLAYOFF PICTURE AFTER WEEK 12
NFC
#6 Carolina (7-4) at #3 New Orleans (8-3)
#5 Atlanta (8-3) at #4 San Francisco (6-5)

t.b.d. vs. #2 Dallas (8-3)
t.b.d. vs. #1 Green Bay (8-3)

In the mix:  Chicago (7-4), Philadelphia (7-4), N.Y. Giants (6-5)

Some major shuffling here in the NFC in Week Twelve.  The Packers are now the #1 seeds, thanks to their Week Nine win over Dallas.  The Cowboys are the #2 seed thanks to their win this week over New Orleans.  The Saints, therefore, have fallen out of bye position into the #3-spot.  Like we said last week, get used to the Falcons-49ers in the 4-5 game, but the #6-spot has been hotly contested and has a new face this week–the Panthers.  Carolina won the three-way tie between them, Chicago, and Philly, thanks to the Bears win over the Eagles this week, and Carolina’s win over the Bears in Week Five.

AFC
#6 Oakland (7-4) at #3 New England (8-3)
#5 N.Y. Jets (7-4) at #4 Cincinnati (7-4)

t.b.d. at #2 San Diego (8-3)
t.b.d. at #1 Indianapolis (9-2)

In the mix:  Baltimore (7-4), Houston (6-5), Pittsburgh (6-5), Tennessee (6-5)

Just like the NFC, it looks like there are three elite teams, and one of them is going to be left out of the bye sweepstakes.  This week, it is New England at #3, thanks to their loss to San Diego last week.  The Colts, with their 9-2 record, have regained the top spot.  The Bengals are holding steady at #4.  The Jets are still #5, but this time it’s on the backs of their Week One win over Baltimore.  The Ravens miss out of the playoffs because of that loss.  The Raiders are the beneficiaries, slipping into that #6-spot.

Click here for Week Thirteen (available 9/9 at 11:00 am).