BSB NFL Two-a-Days: Week Seventeen

Week Sixteen is in the books.  One week left.  All the marbles.  And, the NFL did a great thing this year–every single Week Seventeen game is a game between division rivals.  That has created some amazing final week matchups.  Before we get to the games, let’s look at some final-week playoff scenarios:

The NFC is easy.  Five teams have clinched (GB, NO, Phi, Dal, SF), and two teams play each other for the final spot (Atl-Car), with the winner getting in and loser going home.  Also, the Cowboys and Eagles play for the NFC East title.  As for seeding, the Packers will get the top seed with a win.  If they lose, it could be NO, Phi, or Dal, depending of various combinations.  SF has locked themselves in the #4-spot.

The AFC is much more complicated.  The Colts will get the top-seed with a win or a Patriots loss.  The Chargers have the edge over NE for the #2-seed, but it’s not a lock.  The Pats have clinched the East.  The North will go to the winner of Week Seventeen’s game between Baltimore and Cincy.  The loser of that game is in a fight for a wild card.  Right now, three teams sit at 9-6 (Pit, Mia, and Ten).  If two of them lose, the loser of the North title game will get in, otherwise there will be a crazy tiebreaker.  The Raiders, Texans, and Jets all sit at 8-7 and not mathematically eliminated, but they would need some serious help.

Sunday, January 2:
1:00 – Miami (9-6) at NEW ENGLAND (11-4)
The Super Bowl for the Dolphins, but they have to play in Foxborough with the Pats having something to play for.  A tough game, but I like New England at home.

1:00 – Buffalo (1-14) at N.Y. JETS (8-7)
The Jets get a break in Week Seventeen with a home game against an abysmal team.  Will it be enough?

1:00 – Cincinnati (10-5) at BALTIMORE (10-5)
The AFC North Championship Game is in Baltimore.  The Ravens are just too tough and too good at home to lose this one, although it should be a phenomenal game.

1:00 – PITTSBURGH (9-6) at Cleveland (3-12)
After the 1-3 start without Ben, the Steelers now finish 9-3 with him and have a shot at the playoffs.  I can’t see them losing here in Cleveland with the season on the line.

1:00 – Jacksonville (6-9) at HOUSTON (8-7)
The Texans are most likely going to be the only team of these two with anything to play for.  They should win this game at home.  Will it be enough?

1:00 – Tennessee (9-6) at INDIANAPOLIS (12-3)
Obviously, my take on this game would be a lot different if the Colts have nothing to play for here because we all know that they won’t hesitate to rest everyone.  But, in this scenario, the Colts do still have homefield advantage to play for (actually, they are still at risk for a #3-seed).  If this is true, they will win this game.

1:00 – Oakland (8-7) at KANSAS CITY (6-9)
At this point in the season, it’s more likely that the Chiefs will still be playing hard.  Yes, in this scenario, the Raiders still have a glimmer of playoff hope, but I think, no matter what, the Chiefs should win this game at home.

1:00 – DALLAS (10-5) at Philadelphia (10-5)
Three years in a row the NFC Beast has come down to these two teams on the last day of the season.  In 2008, the Eagles waxed the Cowboys to take the division.  In 2009, the Cowboys got them back, won the division and won again in the wild card rematch.  This year, I just think that the Cowboys, in these circumstances, are the better team and will win in Philly.  And, yes, it will really, really suck…again.

1:00 – N.Y. Giants (8-7) at WASHINGTON (3-12)
No one circles the wagons like the Washington Redskins.  They will put it all together for one last game for pride.  With the Giants eliminated, the ‘Skins will have the edge they need and win this game at home.

1:00 – MINNESOTA (8-7) at Detroit (6-9)
Now, let me preface this.  If the Vikings are completely eliminated in Week Sixteen, I think they might walk in here and lose.  In this scenario, they are, but I still think that there’s enough of a chance that they will play for pride here and win, that I am going to give it to them here.

1:00 – Chicago (8-7) at GREEN BAY (11-4)
Green Bay has it all at stake here and should be able to beat their arch-rivals in Lambeau to lock up the homefield advantage.  A season that started so promising for Chicago ends at .500.

1:00 – Carolina (9-6) at ATLANTA (9-6)
A playoff game before the playoffs.  Winner goes to the playoffs; loser goes home.  The Falcons are coming off a really tough game on Monday night against New Orleans, but I think, with their entire season on the line, they should rebound and beat the Panthers at home, sending them back to the playoffs.

1:00 – Tampa Bay (3-12) at NEW ORLEANS (10-5)
If the Saints need a win in Week Seventeen, they have the perfect co-conspirators to get it done.  Tampa at home?  Atlanta or Carolina better win this division before the final game because this is a walkover for the defending champs.

4:15 – SAN DIEGO (11-4) at Denver (4-11)
It was really just two years ago when these two teams played in Week Seventeen for the AFC West title?  Well, they have both gone in opposite directions since then.  The Chargers should handle the Broncos with ease and take the #2-seed in the AFC again.

4:15 – Arizona (6-9) at SAN FRANCISCO (8-7)
Even if Arizona keeps it close through the year, the Niners get this final game at home and should be able to take care of business and win the division.  It’s a nice hammer to have for them, knowing that they only have to stay within a game and they get their shot, at home, in Week Seventeen.

4:15 – St. Louis (2-13) at SEATTLE (4-11)
A long trip for a bad game.  I’ll take the Seahawks.

FINAL STANDINGS
NFC EAST
11-5 Dallas
10-6 Philadelphia
8-8 N.Y. Giants
4-12 Washington

The Cowboys win the Week Seventeen title game and win the NFC Beast for the second straight year.  The Eagles are going to the playoffs with a solid 10-6 “rebuilding” year.  The Giants finish a disappointing 8-8, while the Redskins don’t even improve on last year’s win total.

NFC NORTH
12-4 Green Bay
9-7 Minnesota
8-8 Chicago
6-10 Detroit

The Packers wrap up homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.  The Vikings finish a disappointing 9-7.  The Bears, after a strong start, come back to reality and finish 8-8.  The Lions have the arrow moving in the right direction.

NFC SOUTH
11-5 New Orleans
10-6 Atlanta
9-7 Carolina
3-13 Tampa Bay

The Saints are the first ever back-to-back NFC South champs.  The Falcons go back to the playoffs with a big win over Carolina.  Tampa struggles again.

NFC WEST
9-7 San Francisco
6-10 Arizona
5-11 Seattle
2-14 St. Louis

After a ton of hype for several years, Mike Singletary finally leads his team to the playoffs, winning the NFC West.  This division was really, really bad all season long.

AFC EAST
12-4 New England
9-7 Miami
9-7 N.Y. Jets
1-15 Buffalo

The Pats beat Miami, but will fall short of a first-round bye.  The Dolphins loss this week eliminates them from the playoffs, and the Jets will also be watching from home.  The Bills win the Jake Locker sweepstakes with a putrid 1-15 season.

AFC NORTH
11-5 Baltimore
10-6 Cincinnati
10-6 Pittsburgh
3-13 Cleveland

The Ravens win the AFC North Championship Game against Cincy and take the division.  With losses to Tennessee and Miami, this division will take both AFC wild cards.

AFC SOUTH
13-3 Indianapolis
9-7 Houston
9-7 Tennessee
6-10 Jacksonville

The Colts clinch the top-seed…again.  The Texans fall a game short of the playoffs…again.  The Titans took a big loss here and are going to miss the playoffs…again.  Jacksonville should (but probably won’t) fire Jack Del Rio…AGAIN.

AFC WEST
12-4 San Diego
8-8 Oakland
7-9 Kansas City
4-12 Denver

The Chargers clinch the first-round bye with a win and an Indy win.  The Chiefs finish out an encouraging year with a win over Oakland.  The Raiders lose six of their final seven games to ruin a promising start.  The Broncos have a lot of rebuilding to do.

THE PLAYOFFS
NFC
#6 Atlanta (10-6) at #3 New Orleans (11-5)
#5 Philadelphia (10-6) at #4 San Francisco (9-7)

t.b.d. vs. #2 Dallas (11-5)
t.b.d. vs. #1 Green Bay (12-4)

The Packers are the top-seed, as the only NFC team to win 12 games.  Dallas’s Thanksgiving Day win over New Orleans wins them the tiebreaker over the Saints and gives them the all-important first-round bye.  New Orleans, NFC South champs, are #3.  San Fran, who has been in the #4-spot all year, finishes there and will host the Eagles on wild card weekend.  The Birds beat Atlanta in Week Six to earn the #5-seed.  The Falcons win over Carolina got them in and sends them to New Orleans as the #6-seed.

AFC
#6 Cincinnati (10-6) at #3 New England (12-4)
#5 Pittsburgh (10-6) at #4 Baltimore (11-5)

t.b.d. at #2 San Diego (12-4)
t.b.d. at #1 Indianapolis (13-3)

Six teams with double-digit wins and six playoff spots.  That is how it’s supposed to work.  The Colts clinch another #1-seed with a league-best 13-3 record.  The Chargers, on the strength of their Week Seven win over New England, get the first-round bye.  The Pats have to settle for the #3-seed.  The Ravens, after winning the AFC North are the #4-seed and will host their arch-rivals, the Steelers, who snuck into the playoffs and took the #5-seed on the back of a season-sweep of Cincinnati (Weeks Nine and Fourteen).  The Bengals have to settle for #6.

Click here for The Playoffs (available 9/11 at 7:00 pm).