Saturday’s Wild Card Games

Jaguars at Steelers

This is by far the best game of Wild Card Weekend.  Not only are both teams really good, but they’re also so evenly matched that picking a winner is almost impossible.  The Jags did go into Pittsburgh just a few weeks ago and win 29-22, but winning in a place like Heinz Field in the playoffs is really tough.

The Steelers have some injury concerns coming into this one.  Running back Willie Parker, who was leading the NFL in rushing through 14 games, is done for the year and Najeh Davenport takes over his role.  Due in part to Parker’s absence, Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette thinks the Steelers will rely on Ben Roethlisberger, and come out throwing the ball early and often.  The run-heavy Steeler offense has done this before in the playoffs, as Bouchette points out, going to the air in 2005 to beat the Colts and Broncos en route to Super Bowl XL. 

If the Steelers are planning on leaning on the passing game, there may be one fatal flaw to the plan: the left tackle situation.  Starter Marvel Smith went down with an injury a few weeks ago and his replacement, Max Starks, was injured last week and is also unavailable for Saturday’s game.  So the job of protecting Roethlisberger’s blind-side falls to Trai Essex, who has spent almost his whole career on the practice squad.  If Essex ends up doing his best Winston Justice impression, the Steelers will move veteran guard Alan Faneca over to the left tackle spot.  This has to be a major point of concern for the Steeler coaching staff coming into the game.  Jags All-Pro DT Marcus Stroud is injured, but they still have a formidable defensive line that can eat up sub-par blockers.  If Faneca is moved over to tackle, that leaves a backup guard to handle blocking John Henderson and Grady Jackson on the interior of the Jacksonville D-line.

I really have no idea who’s going to win this game.  Logic probably points to Jacksonville.  They won in Pittsburgh a few weeks ago and now the Steelers have more injury problems.  Also, the Steelers only beat one playoff team all year (Seattle in early October).  They will have to stop Fred Taylor (who has killed them throughout his career) and Maurice Jones-Drew and force David Garrard to beat them.  Garrard is still inexperienced and it will tough for him in a hostile, playoff atmosphere to put the team on his shoulders.  If he does, he will solidify himself as a franchise quarterback.  But for the Steelers, Roethlisberger has already done that.

The Pick: Steelers 14, Jags 13

Redskins at Seahawks

I’ve been saying all year that the Redskins stink.  I couldn’t believe the Eagles lost to them in Week 2 and I wasn’t surprised in the least when a 3-5 Eagles team (a week after getting plastered at home by Dallas) went to Washington and beat them in Week 10.  I stand by that.  They were not a good team.  But now they have two giant ‘X-Factors’ working in their favor:  Sean Taylor and Todd Collins.  Yup, a dead guy and a quarterback that hadn’t started an NFL game since 1997.  Makes sense, right?

Now, I’m not a huge believer in these ‘Tragedy strikes, Team starts winning’ stories.  For every team that “Won One for the Gipper”, you could point to another team where people were saying, “Well, they’re losing because they’re emotionally worn down”, or something like that.  But there are these facts:  Prior to Taylor’s funeral on December 3rd, the Skins had lost 5 of 6 games, with the one win being in overtime against the 4-12 Jets.  Since December 3rd, they have won four straight, including road wins over the Giants and Vikings.

Now, if you’re not a believer in the ‘inspirational’ explanation for that turnaround, there is another (probably better) explanation:  Collins taking over at quarterback at the start of this four-game winning streak.  After an injury to starter Jason Campbell, Collins came out of nowhere to win NFC Offensive Player of the Month honors for December.  His quarterback rating of 106.4 is almost 30 points higher than Campbell’s and the team went from averaging 19 points/game with Campbell, to 26 with Collins under center.  I watched the Skins win over Dallas last weekend and Collins was really impressive.  Troy Aikman, commentating for the game, was constantly showing replays of Collins releasing the ball long before a receiver was open, only to have the ball drop right in their hands just as they broke into a seam.  I’m not saying he looked like Tom Brady, but he was doing things you don’t see from Campbell.  Basically, I think Collins gives the Skins a shot in this game.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks will also count on a big game from their quarterback, Matt Hasselbeck.  Les Carpenter, of the Washington Post, writes that the Seahawks season turned around when Mike Holmgren decided to abandon a balanced offense and start throwing the ball more and more.  With the team at 4-4 and Shaun Alexander showing that he’s past his prime, Holmgren decided to put the offense on Hasselbeck’s shoulders and his team went 6-2 in the second half of the season.

Like the Jags-Steelers, home-field advantage will play a key role in this game.  Seattle is a surprisingly tough place to play, with the stadium being considered one of the loudest in the league.  The Redskins have those ‘X-Factors’ working in their favor and they’re a popular upset pick in this game, but I think the difference will ultimately be the coaching.  I don’t think Joe Gibbs can be trusted anymore and I expect Holmgren to out-maneuver him.

The Pick: Seahawks 27, Redskins 23