NFL Week-by-Week Preview: Week Eight

Just about halfway throught the 2012 season here and things are taking more of a shape.  After next week, we will take our first peak at the “playoff picture.”  For not, it’s still a jockeying for position.  There is just one undefeated team left (Green Bay) and one winless team (Oakland).  The big surprises on the good side through 7 weeks are probably New Orleans (5-1) and Cincinnati (5-2), while the surprises on the bad side are probably Oakland (0-6), Seattle (1-6), and Detroit (2-4).  But, at only 7 weeks in, a lot of this could be just the imbalance of the schedule thus far.  After just about every game being really tough to call so far, there are a ton of mismatches here in Week Eight.

Thursday Night

Tampa Bay (3-3) at MINNESOTA (3-4) – Vegas: Vikings -3.5
Again, I need a really solid reason to pick against the home team on these Thursday Night games, and I can’t find one here.  Vikings (moderate)

Sunday, Early Afternoon

Carolina (3-3) at CHICAGO (3-3) – Vegas: Bears -4
This one is tougher than it may seem simply because the Bears are coming off a Monday Night game against division rivals, Detroit.  But, that was a home game and so is this.  Plus, I think the Bears matchup well against the Panthers, so I’ll stick with the better team at home.  Bears (close)

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NFL Week-by-Week Preview: Week Seven

Around now in the NFL season is when teams start to assert themselves as either true contenders or everybody else.  The Packers are the only remaining unbeaten team after a big win over the Texans in Week Six.  The Colts and Raiders are still winless.

Thursday Night

Seattle (1-5) at SAN FRANCISCO (4-2) – Vegas: 49ers -7
The home team on a short week is simply the better team.  49ers (easy)

Sunday, Early Afternoon

Tennessee (3-3) at BUFFALO (3-3) – Vegas: Bills -3.5
The Titans have 10 days to prepare for this game, and the Bills are coming back from back-to-back games on the West Coast.  Even for a guy who actually believes in the Bills being much improved and isn’t that high on the Titans, this is a tough one for me.  But, all in all, I think the Bills should put it together and have the defense to really cause the Titans offense some problems.  But, this is not a great spot for the Bills.  Bills (close)

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NFL Week-by-Week Preview: Week Six

Another great week of NFL action here as we start to see a little bit of form coming in the divisions.  There is still a TON of football to be played, though.  With the Bears, Saints, Panthers, and Jags all on the bye, we’ve got 14 games this week.  The Packers and Steelers are the lone undefeateds left, while Washington, Indy, and Oakland are all still chasing their first W.

Thursday Night

Pittsburgh (4-0) at TENNESSEE (2-3) – Vegas: Steelers -2.5
Short weeks favor the home teams.  And, this game, for the Steelers is sandwiched in between the Eagles last week and Bengals next week.  I’m looking to the upset here.  Titans (close)

Sunday, Early Afternoon

Oakland (0-4) at ATLANTA (3-2) – Vegas: Falcons -6.5
The Raiders are coming off of a bye, but the game is at 1:00 on the East Coast, and the Falcons just outclass them.  Falcons (easy)

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The Orioles land Randy Wolf

I don’t think I would have been doing a Phillies based blog site justice if I wouldn’t have written about Mr. Wolf heading to the Orioles.  Yesterday afternoon I was sitting at my desk and the monotony of doing the same cases over and over finally got to a breaking point.  So I took a quick stroll around the building and checked the Twitter, like I always do for my latest Orioles news, and saw we landed Randy Wolf.  The following 5 minutes I was hit with 3 different texts and 2 emails in regards to the news.

Obviously, at this point my work day was complete as I began to do my Randy Wolf homework, and as my parents always taught me…homework comes first.  Not spending a whole lot of time focusing on the N.L. this year, I had to look up Wolf’s stats and immediately saw 3-10 5.69 ERA.  I said to myself, “Ok, a little off but I am not discouraged.”  I then looked up the 4.19 lifetime ERA and felt a little sigh of relief. 

Overall, I like the move.  Of course there are things that worry me, he’s 36, he has had a brutal year, and he has never pitched in the A.L. more noteably the A.L. East, so there is definitely some reason to be concerned, but the good outweighs the bad here.

1. He is heading to the bullpen

The bullpen this year has been fantastic.  Every guy in the pen has stepped up and done their job.  The glaring problem with the bullpen in the past 2 1/2 weeks has been the loss of Troy Patton, who the hell would ever think that would be said.  Patton was put on the 15 day DL due to an ankle injury, leaving the Orioles with no left-handed relief…kind of scary.  In turn they brought up JC Romero, well that was a bigger failure than trying to get Mike Mussina to give an emotional speech at his own Orioles H.O.F. induction.  By the way that went along the lines of, “Hello.  Thanks to all the fans, and the organization for this honor. Thank you.”…riveting.  Anyway, Romero game up and was a disaster and now he is gone.  Which left the Orioles to call up Brian Matusz, whose struggles this season have been well documented and not only he but our opening day starter have both been moved from starters to the pen.  Signing Randy Wolf brings stability.  He can pitch long relief, he can start, and he understands how to pitch in September and the postseason. Which leads into my next point.

2. He could sure up postseason possibilites

There are 34 games remaining. 2 remaining in the series against the White Sox, 7 against the Yankees, 7 against the Blue Jays, 6 against the Rays, 6 against the Red Sox, 3 against the A’s, and 3 against the Mariners.  It has been 15 years, so yes I am going to be a homer and overly optimistic.  But if you look at it, the Jays, Red Sox and Mariners are all out of the race. That is 16 games, pretty much half our schedule remaining for teams that are packing it in until the end.  Not to mention the Yankees are so beat up we just keep catching them at the right times, now that Teixeira is said to be out for multiple series.

All this said, if we make the playoffs, I am 100% comfortable with Randy Wolf making a postseason start.  In looking at all of our pitching, Wolf has the most postseason experience, seeing as the majority of our pitching has none.  Pitching in New York in October or facing a Rangers lineup in October is a little different then pitching in those scenarios in July.  At this point I think if I was Showalter I would definitely be more willing to send Wolf out on the mound than to send a guy like Miguel Gonzalez, who has been really good so far, but is starting to show signs of fatigue.

3. He was dirt cheap

The Orioles paid $80,000 for the remaining salary for verteran minimum for Randy Wolf.  80 grand! There are some people that walk around my office that do less work than a major league starting pitcher that make more money than 80 grand.  I would throw 80 grand at the experience of a guy like Wolf, especially if it turns into 2 or 3 key September wins and a potential win or two in October.  Worst case scenario, he pitches to his 5.50 ERA and we release him and we say nice try.

4. He wanted to be here

This, to me, is the most important thing.  Once released, Wolf had the choice to go wherever he wanted. Apparently, the A’s who are also in playoff contention, immediately called for his services.  I have sat through 15 years of Adam Dunn telling us no. Adam LaRoche telling us no.  Paul Konerko telling us no, twice. Vlad Guerrero telling us no, until he was ancient and worthless.  Mark Teixeira pretty much laughing in the hometown’s face.  For once it was nice to hear Randy Wolf picked us.  Granted this isn’t some monster free-agent that weighed 12 different offers and decided Baltimore was his new team.  It was Randy Wolf.  But Wolf, success or failure, gives me great hope that this will start a trend in Baltimore that brings fans back to park, that has free-agents pay attention and take a harder look at Baltimore, and hopefully just brings back that amazing winning tradition.

34 games left and I am hung up on every pitch.

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NFL Week-by-Week Preview: Week Five

And, we are into October.  As the leaves change and the weather cools, the NFL season is only warming up.  Can the Packers, Steelers, and Texans stay undefeated?  Will either of the top two draft picks get their first win of the year?  The Cowboys, Lions, Raiders, and Bucs all take the week off to contemplate their up-and-down starts to the season.

Thursday Night

Arizona (2-2) at ST. LOUIS (2-2) – Vegas: Rams -2.5
Again, the short weeks onlly add to the homefield advantage.  I am not sure who I would like on a neutral field, but on a short week, at home, I would need a good reason not to take the Rams, and I can’t find one.  Rams (close)

Sunday, Early Afternoon

Miami (2-2) at CINCINNATI (3-1) – Vegas: Bengals -2.5
Miami is coming back from a West Coast trip, and now they are on the road again.  Gimme the Bengals and the points in this one.  Bengals (moderate)

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NFL Week-by-Week Preview: Week Four

Week Four is the start of the bye weeks, as the Colts and Steelers take the week off.  The rest of the league is back at it here in the early stages of another fascinating NFL season.

Thursday Night

 Cleveland (1-2) at BALTIMORE (1-2) – Vegas: Ravens -1
This is the fourth game in an absolutely brutal stretch to start the season for the Ravens.  They just hosted New England on Sunday night, after getting Cincy and Philly in 6 days to start the year.  But, it is the Browns at home on a Thursday night.  If the game was on the road or against someone better, I would think they could be pretty vulnerable here, but they should beat the Browns at home.  Ravens (moderate)

Sunday, Early Afternoon

Carolina (1-2) at ATLANTA (1-2) – Vegas: Falcons -4.5
The Falcons are just coming back from a trip out West last week, while the Panthers have 10 days to prepare for this one.  I might take Carolina and the points, but, as for the game, I think the Falcons are just the better team.  Falcons (close)

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MLB Suicide Game: Half the Field Goes Down, Leaving a Final Four

We started with 8 people left – all one strike away from elimination.  4 of them survived (including two who won a pair of games to make it through); 4 of them did not.

  • RyanDoc (Brewers and Mariners) and Wojo (A’s and Mariners) were the big winners on the day, picking two games right to make the Final Four
  • McGrath (Mariners) is back to another Final Four with a win
  • Stumpf (Mariners) rounds out the final group, looking for another W
  • Doogan (Mariners-W, Braves-L) puts in a solid showing, but couldn’t pull off the double and exits his first round of the year
  • Gillig (Yankees) goes from outright leader to just plain out with two losses in as many days
  • Bry (Dodgers) goes deep in yet another round, but can’t finish it off, as the only one who picked against the Rox in their 10-0 rout of Josh Beckett’s Dodgers
  • RyanSmith (Yankees) also falls short in an attempt to win his first round of the year

OVERALL – 4 of 29 remain
STILL PERFECT (0)
ONE STRIKE (0)
TWO STRIKE (4) – McGrath, RyanDoc, Stumpf, Wojo
ELIMINATED (25)

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NFL Week-by-Week Preview: Week Three

Two weeks in and still a lot of storylines yet to unroll.  But, for right now, the narrative is dominated by the surprises of the Vikings and Bills at 2-0 and the Broncos, Jets, Panthers, and Cowboys at 0-2.

Thursday Night

N.Y. Giants (2-0) at CAROLINA (0-2) – Vegas: Panthers -1
I think the Giants are a considerably better team than Carolina.  However, I think this is a pretty tough spot for them.  First of all, as fellow BSB contributor, Gross often points out, Thursday night games seem to disproportionately favor the home team because of the short week and the lost day of practice due to travel.  Plus, the Giants have a huge showdown with the Eagles in Week Four, so they may have a slight eye on that one, which would exaggerate the difficulties in playing on Thursday night.  Now, the Giants do match up really well against the Panthers offense because the d-line is good enough to contain Cam, but this seems like a bit of a trap game for Big Blue, and Vegas even agrees.  Panthers (close)

Sunday, Early Afternoon

St. Louis (1-1) at CHICAGO (1-1) – Vegas: Bears -7.5
The Bears have 10 days to prepare for a home game against a bad Rams team.  The fact that Vegas is only giving 7.5 here gives me a little pause, but it could just be a bad line.  The Bears should roll.  Bears (easy)

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2012 NFL Week-by-Week Preview: Week Two

An always-interesting opening week set the stage for the 2012 NFL season.  Now, Week Two is upon us and things will continue to shock us – as they always do.

Thursday Night

 Chicago (1-0) at GREEN BAY (1-0) – Vegas: Packers -7.5
The Packers open with back-to-back tough games (SF and CHI), but they get them both at home.  While I think the Bears, are going to be good – and decently prepared after an easy Week One against Indy – I don’t see quite enough here to go into Lambeau and get the upset.  Packers (moderate)

Sunday, Early Afternoon

Kansas City (1-0) at BUFFALO (1-0) – Vegas: Bills -2.5
I have both of these teams coming off big Week One wins.  The Bills went into the Meadowlands and beat the Jets, while the Chiefs upset Matt Ryan and the Falcons at home.  I like both of these teams to possibly surprise some people in the AFC this year, and I am not sure who I am higher on.  In this case, I am going to just go with the home team.  Bills (close)

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MLB Suicide Game: Another One Falls as Everyone is Left at Two Strikes

A rainy Sunday eliminates one more, brings our leader back to the pack, and gives us our first rainouts of the year.

  • The Pirates were smoked by Milwaukee, as they continue to gag away their shot at the playoffs and, in the process, eliminate Tyler from Round Eleven
  • The White Sox got, what turned out to be a walkoff 2-run HR in the bottom of the 7th…thanks to the rain; the win kept alive the hopes of Bry and RyanSmith
  • The Yankees beat the reeling Indians and Ubaldo, 4-2, keeping McGrath alive and kicking
  • The Red Sox got a big hit from newly-acquired James Loney to keep Stumpf in Round Eleven
  • And, the most popular pick of the day – the Orioles – were actually rained out, leaving Doogan, RyanDoc, and Wojo

OVERALL – 8 of 29 remain
STILL PERFECT (0)
ONE STRIKE (0)
TWO STRIKES, NO MAKEUP (5) – Bry, Gillig, McGrath, RyanSmith, Stumpf
TWO STRIKE, MAKEUP (3) – Doogan, RyanDoc, Wojo
ELIMINATED (21)

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