2012 NFL Week-by-Week Preview: Week One

The beauty of the NFL is that every single game is so incredibly important due to the simple fact that there are only 16 of them.  The defending champs were one poorly-thrown Tony Romo pass away from missing the playoffs altogether.  And, in this league of the best football players in the world, any little advantage goes a really long way.

With this in mind, we like to do a different kind of preview here at BSB.  You will hear all sorts of people with predicted divisional standings, with W-L records for all the teams.  The most diligent of those will have the Ws and Ls at least add up to one another, but they are still just looking at a team – maybe the overall schedule – and deciding how good they think they are.  But, I believe that there is so much more to actually trying to “preview” the season.  But, there are so many other factors to a season – little things like playing a team off their bye or on a short week or West Coast teams at 1:00 or playing getting a team in a possible “trap game” that is sandwiched in between major rivals.  Any one of these factors can be the difference between getting a ticket to the crapshoot playoff field and thinking about “what could have been.” 

So, here at BSB, we try to do our best to actually analyze the schedule every year.  So, without further ado, let’s get it going with Week One.  While we will be using the preseason Vegas lines, as a reference, the picks will just be winners.  You can make your own judgment as far as ATS picks, if you really feel the need to bet NFL games this far in advance (not judging because, well, I do it…).

Each weekday for the next two weeks, we will be posting previews twice a day (7am and 3pm), so check back then to follow along week-by-week.

Wednesday Night

Dallas (0-0) at N.Y.GIANTS (0-0) – Vegas: Giants -3
The defending champs will get their rings on this night and have all the world watching them at home.  I like the Cowboys this year, but I cannot find any reason to pick them in this one.  Giants (moderate)

Sunday, Early Afternoon

Indianapolis (0-0) at CHICAGO (0-0) – Vegas: Bears -10
No luck for Andrew’s debut here, as he faces a pretty stout defense and an underrated offense.  Bears -10 (easy)

Philadelphia (0-0) at CLEVELAND (0-0) – Vegas: Eagles -8.5
The Eagles dynasty couldn’t get off to a much easier start, as the Browns might be the worst team in the NFL.  That being said, to quote one of BSB’s best contributors, Gross, “of all the times to play the Browns on the road, Week One is probably the worst time.”  I still don’t see the 2012 Eagles losing to the 2012 Browns anywhere, anytime.  Eagles (easy)

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The O’s have acquired Joe Saunders

Well it’s a rainy Sunday afternoon and the worst news for Orioles fans today was that the Orioles didn’t get to play today, which is sort of ironic because the worst news is normally that we are 17 games out of first place on August 26th. However, the best news is that the Orioles have landed a legit starter, certainly not an ace, but a nice piece to this confusing puzzle that is the Orioles.

If you are an O’s fan I am not sure how you could not like this trade. Finally, a proven ML pitcher and a hometown kid. Saunders is from Falls Church, VA, played his college ball at Virginia Tech and was a first round (12th overall) pick by the Anaheim Angels, just to give O’s fans a little background.

I am sure some people are worried that giving away a piece of that bullpen was a mistake, I mean the collective group is 72-0 in the past 72 games when leading after the 7th inning…pretty impressive. But the fact is this bullpen is good with or without Lindstrom. There was a period where Lindstrom had been on the DL and this team was just fine without him, so I think the move is fantastic. For Lindstrom, unfortunately, he ran into Pedro Strop who has been one of the best setup men in baseball this year. But now Lindstrom will get a chance to go over to Arizona and get a chance to be a setup man to J.J. Putz. Another fun fact for all of us Orioles fans: currently the Diamondbacks have Matt Lindstrom, Brad Bergesen, Matt Albers and David Hernandez.

But back to Saunders. This guy has already seen postseason ball and the majority of the A.L. while pitching with the Angels. Most of you remember him from his 08′ year where he was an All-Star and was in contention for a Cy Young. It was when everyone was saying, “who the hell is this Joe Saunders kid?” Then in 2010 he was shipped to Arizona for Dan Haren and as of today he has become an Oriole. He was a little banged up this year and his pitched to a 6-10, 4.22 ERA including a 1.36 WHIP. Not bad numbers.

There are a few reasons why I love this trade:

1. He is proven

Currently the Orioles staff, when Jason Hammel comes back in 10 days or so will look like; Saunders, Hammel, Chen, Gonzalez, Johnson (maybe). If that isn’t a list of no names I don’t know what is. If this team does somehow make the playoffs we finally have a proven guy that can take the reigns of that rotation, and to be honest I am a lot more comfortable seeing a name like Saunders as one of the potential playoff starting pitchers other than a Gonzalez or Johnson.

2. We didn’t give up much

Lindstrom was a guy we got in the trade for Jeremy Guthrie (who has also since been traded). When the deal was done most Oriole fans were crushed. Jeremy Guthrie for Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom….WHO!? FIRE DUQUETTE! I heard a ton of that on the local sports talkshows. As I said earlier, Lindstrom has already been on the DL once, and the Orioles were just fine, so I don’t really see much of that changing. Lindstrom wanted to be a setup type of guy and that wasn’t going to happen while Strop was still pitching.

3. Duquette has had a scary way of making things work this year

I know this might be a stupid reason, but sometimes things just pan out in these G.M.’s favors. Well in Duquette’s case everything has been going right. The Hammel and Lindstrom trade for Guthrie looks genius. We traded for Thome and gave up two Single-A prospects. Granted Thome is hurt, but here is the thing…they are still winning without him so when he comes back that can only benefit the lineup, in my opinion. Then they trade for Omar Quintanilla, I think they traded a half dozen crab cakes for him. But the guy has only come over and brought stability to a terrible fielding team and hit the same number of home runs in his time with the Orioles as he has in his career. And now you bring in Saunders. With 36 games left it looks like the guy will probably get about 6 to 7 starts to end the year, he is slated to make his O’s debut either Wednesday or Thursday.

4. Saunders coming to Baltimore means Bundy or Gausman will probably stay down

I want to see both Bundy and Gausman in an Orioles uniform just as badly as the next diehard, but I don’t think either of them are ready. You look at the numerous pitching prospects that have been called up too soon and just had a career wasted, it’s not worth it for one potential playoff push. Bundy is 19 and he is dominating the minors, which is awesome. I want that confidence to continue to grow and be so overwhelming that when he is finally brought up he just has the confidence to dominate the league. You look at Strasburg and maybe the best quality of all was that he was a bit older and more mature. I think bringing up Bundy, maybe wouldn’t be so bad but on top of it there are rumors of bringing up Gausman. I think that would be one of the biggest mistakes the Orioles would make in the history of the franchise. I have watched minimal film of this kid and he is overpowering, however, he doesn’t look ready. He still eats 4 donuts in between every inning he pitches…how he hasn’t barfed on the mound yet is beyond me. Now with the addition of Saunders I am hoping that keeps at least Gausman down and hopefully Bundy as well.

Regardless, the Orioles have done everything wrong this year and it has worked. We are a week away from September and still in contention. In Philly, I understand that is the norm, in Baltimore it hasn’t been in a long time. Most of my friends and the guys my age have a typical routine. We go to opening day, we talk about how great the team is going to be, we go to games, we watch on television and by the time our late July/early August vacation to Ocean City takes place we start talking fantasy football and the Ravens because frankly, we understand the Orioles have no shot. But this year has been different. I woke up today, I walked the dog, kissed my girlfriend, got dressed and we went to the grocery store. As she was up at the deli counter ordering god knows what I was looking at ESPN and checking Twitter to verify that what I was reading was true. On August 26th, the Orioles are in a pennant race and made a trade for Joe Saunders. The first thing I did was call my old man and broke the good news. Before he could finish saying, “hello, what are you up to?” like he does to start every conversation, I said anxiously, “Dad we traded for Saunders.” We talked for about 5 more minutes and then hung up. For the minute or two after that I was just in a haze as my girlfriend finished at the deli counter. Not because the Orioles pulled off some blockbuster but because this season has taken me, like many others my age, back to when we were kids, when the Orioles mattered. When I was 9 years old it was 1997, my old man scored tickets to both the Seattle and Cleveland series. He didn’t take a buddy, his wife, or even my older brother (mainly because he wasn’t real into sports). He took me. He taught me to understand what Orioles baseball was like when it was winning, how great it was to have a stadium like Camden Yards, and that it was special that we were able to live in a city that not only had a baseball team, but a team that won. Well the Orioles went on to lose to Cleveland that year and I as a 9 year old boy was crushed, but I was from there on out, forever an Orioles fan. I have spent 15 years turning on the television at 7:05 to watch scrub after bum after homeless guy take the mound or boot balls at third or strike out with the bases loaded. That is what this year has meant to me. So, to sum it all up Joe Saunders was more than just a trade, it was the hope that 15 years will come to an end.

Sorry to all the Phillies fans that had to listen a rant.

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Top 10 Fantasy Runningbacks

Hey guys for those of you that know me my name is Steve Grossnickle aka Gross, because lets face who the hell wants to consistently say that last name. For those of you that don’t I am a friend of Cim’s from softball and sports was just a natural topic of conversation. He told me about the website and I think it is awesome what you guys have set up. I know most of you guys are Philly guys but I am a Baltimore kid born and raised so anyone that is interested in Baltimore sports I hope to write on here as much as possible.

Along with being a a huge Baltimore sports fan I am also a huge fantasy sports nerd, especially football. I know it is pretty popular so hopefully this will interest some of you guys. So here are my top 10 fantasy RBs.

1. Arian Foster:

I mean this is a pretty big no brainer in my opinion. If you look at last year I think that is the biggest tell of all. Foster missed 2 games at the beginning of the year and then sat out the final game of the season. Half of the season T.J. Yates was under center. So in summary, 13 games played, and facing 8 to 9 men in the box. Well Foster ended up with over 1,200 yards rushing, 600 yards receiving and 12 total TDs…not too bad. Now, I think with Foster coming into his prime and Schaub and Andre Johnson getting another year older, dealing with a ton of injuries, I see no reason why Foster shouldn’t be the number one runningback coming off of your board.

2. LeSean McCoy:

I don’t understand why this kid doesn’t get more respect, probably because of the whole Michael Vick thing but damn he is good. He reminds me of Brian Westbrook only bigger, stronger and faster. This kid is a PPR monster! He catches a ton of balls and is the main focal point in this offense. How he has been rated #3 or #4 RB in a lot of rankings is just absurd to me. I think out of all the backs in the draft he is the safest pick. With McCoy you know what you are going to get and it’s 1,000 yard back that also catches a ton of passes. If you are in a PPR league even consider drafting this kid first.

3. Ray Rice:

Yes the Ravens fan has Ray Rice third out of the big 3 RBs. My biggest issue with Rice is the offensive line…it’s not that good. You have one of the biggest scumbags in the world, McKinnie at LT, a washed up Bobbie Williams at LG, a genius, but old at C, Matt Birk, an actual NFL starting lineman in Yanda at RG and to put the bow on this sexy lineup the most overrated lineman in all of football, RT Michael Oher. If only every lineman had a shitty movie made about them starring Sandra Bullock we would have some seriously injured QBs out there. So on top of a terrible line, Cam Cameron has decided he wants to change to offense again and go more no huddle or what they like to call the “sugar huddle.” Yup, grown men playing NFL Football and they implemented something called a sugar huddle…I think Rice is safe at 3 because he has the most potential to be a bust this year. The Ravens play a brutal schedule and I think if you take him first over Foster and McCoy you will be disappointed when you compare the three at the end of the year.

4. Chris Johnson:

Here is where most of the debate will begin. Unlike most years in fantasy where you had a list of 10 to 12 runningbacks that you knew were going to be studs, this year is a complete crap shoot. But I have Chris Johnson at first mainly because I believe that last year was a bad year simply due to that holdout. Rotoworld actually did a nice article about big time players coming off a big year and the next season holding out into training camp. Something like 8 of the 11 had significantly worse seasons. One of the guys that didn’t was, Emmitt Smith, so it shows you how hard it is to break that trend. I think Chris Johnson is going to be back to form though. The kid is still young and still very fast, and as the old saying goes, speed kills. Since this year in fantasy RBs are so weak, I really think a key strategy to your draft should be drafting the guys with the biggest potential boom factor, even if there are a bunch of lingering questions. No risk no reward. But Johnson is coming into the offense this year, he put on 20 lbs of muscle, which he desperately needed, and oh yeah they signed probably the best LG in the game, Steve Hutchinson. The offensive line is better, this QB Locker looks like he could be forreal and there are a ton of weapons on that team to take some focus off of CJ. I think he is due for a big season.

5. Matt Forte

If you look around at RBs, Forte has got to be considered the safest, outside of McCoy. Forte has been as consistent as any other RB in the league. He finally got his contract and he looks healthy off the injury. I know everyone is concerned about Michael Bush, but you shouldn’t be worried. Yes, Bush will be a goal line vulture and will be seeing a lot of those red zone type carries, but that doesn’t matter. Everyone remember what a fantasy monster Forte was last year? Good, because he only had 3 rushing TDs last season. That isn’t Forte’s game, he is a pass catching explosive play type of back. He averaged pretty much 5 yards a carry (4.9 officially) and pretty much 10 yards a catch (9.4 officially). Now imagine if he didn’t have that knee injury. In fact, after 11 weeks he was on pace to lead the NFL in yards from scrimmage. I would say all of these facts should have him moving his way up on everyones boards. By the way, for those of you that are worried about the knee, it was only a sprain last year, not a tear.

6. Marshawn Lynch

This kid is so annoying. This is going to end up being a guy you more so “have” to take than “want” to take just because he is going to slide in the draft. Right now he is still awaiting his suspension, because one is definitely coming. I know they are saying he might avoid one, but Goodell is such a ball buster I think Lynch will probably get 2 games. A lot of things I have seen now, depending on how many teams are in your league, he is falling to the second or third round. If he is in the third, you absolutely have to take him, if he is in the second, depending on what is still out there he still holds great value. The league I run is 12 teams and he went pick number 20, just to give everyone an idea. If this guy can stop being such a jerk and just focus on football, he will be back in “beast mode.” However, he is somewhat scary. He just got the new contract and he rewards the team with a DUI. To make sure you have your bases covered, in the late rounds pick up Robert Turbin, he is the backup and he has had a really good camp. For your enjoyment, I can imagine this was a close look at how Marshawn was cruising down the street before he got pulled over (See Below)

7. Darren McFadden:

It is a real shame that this kid gets hurt every single year, because he is fun to watch. You want to talk about explosive, this kid is unbelievable to watch. I understand that everyone is afraid of injuries, you cannot base your draft on injuries. Say you take McFadden and he gets hurt and you say, “well I knew that was going to happen.” But what if you took Brees in that spot and the first week he blows out a knee or gets a concussion and misses 8 weeks, I mean you can’t predict these things. Not to mention I think Greg Knapp’s new zone running scheme will help McFadden stay healthy. Knapp is all about the one cut and then get up the field. That couldn’t be better for McFadden, a guy who likes to cut and then just run. My prediction is that IF DMC stays healthy, he is going to be the best fantasy RB this season, take a chance on him.

8. Jamaal Charles:

Last year this guy was pretty much a universal top 5 pick. Week 2 game and just like that Charles was done for the season with a torn ACL. The good news out of all of this is that he tore it in week 2, so he has had pretty much a full year of recovery. This season in comes Peyton Hillis, which I think is scaring the majority of people away from Jamaal Charles. Charles is a very similar situation to Matt Forte. Again, remember when Charles had that monster year? It wasn’t because of a ton of TDs, Thomas Jones took all those goal line carries. Charles is a big play type of guy. Another big factor playing into Charles’ success is that Haley is gone, the guy who loves to use 9 RBs and throw the ball 45 times a game, and Romeo Crennel is the head man, a guy who likes to play defense and run the ball. I think Charles will find his form prior to the knee injury. By the way, a lot of people hate Hillis this year, KC when they had Charles and Jones made the two headed monster work better than anyone…keep that in mind.

9. Steven Jackson:

The ancient one, at 29. Yes, I am on the Steven Jackson bandwagon this season and why not? Always injured right? Wrong. Steven Jackson has never played in less than 12 games in a season. In fact, in the past 3 seasons he has only missed 2 games. Not bad for a guy who can’t shake the tag of injury prone. I think this team was immediately made better the day Jeff Fisher was hired. I think Fisher only took the job because he knows this team can be good. Not to mention Steven Jackson doesn’t have a ton of talent really pushing him for his spot. I mean the guy has run off seven consecutive 1,000 yard seasons, and I think he is going to make it number eight. With how shaky the RB situations are around the NFL with everyone splitting carries and not knowing who will get the primary workload, it is nice to see a familiar face in Steven Jackson, knowing what you will get from the guy. It is a quality pick which you will probably get in the latter part of round 2 maybe even middle to end of round 3 if you are lucky.

10. Adrian Peterson:

I mean this guy is just a freak of nature, he defies all the odds. Torn ACL at the end of the season and there is talk that he will be on the field week one, you have got to be kidding me. This guy was the consensus number one pick last year and now people are making him RB 14, 15 or 16. Here’s the thing: with all this uncertainty at the position and all the other guys coming off injury why wouldn’t you take a chance on Peterson. Worst comes to worst he still puts up top 25 RB numbers. Best case scenario he goes back on top of the mountain. I just don’t see much losing on this pick. I mean don’t get me wrong I am not taking him first round, but he is definitely in that lump of RBs after the past 5 or so where he is catching my eye. In the 12 team draft I was in over the weekend, good knowledge in the league, he was the 10th overall pick, 6th RB off the board. He was taken before Lynch, Charles, McFadden and Jackson just to give everyone an idea that this guys draft stock is rising.

Hope this helps you guys with your fantasy drafts.

Lynch cruising

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Introducing a New Member of the BSB Family

(NOTE: The NFL Preview is still going on in the below post.  We’ll bump it up when completed, but you can keep up-to-date at the post.)

The BroadStreetBelievers team is pleased to announce another member to our team.  Steve Grossnickle (“Gross”) has accepted our generous offer (maybe a free beer or something…) to provide another perspective to the site.  Gross, while “fluent” in all sports, will slide nicely into the currently vacant niche of “fantasy guru,” while also providing a uniquely Baltimorean angle.  He is also an avid college hoops fanatic, so our already strong winter content should be even stronger.  Look for some upcoming fantasy articles as he gets his feet wet here at BSB.

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MLB Suicide Game: No Harm, No Foul

We entered Day Nine of Round Eleven with 11 people left, we will enter Day Ten with 11 people left, as the field goes 11-0 on Thursday.  But, it wasn’t easy…

The Tigers offense nearly ruins a Verlander gem, but rally in the 8th and win it in the 11th
Doogan, RyanSmith, and Stumpf all stay alive, while, our leader, Gillig, stays at 1 strike

You never want to spot the Astros a 4-run lead…oh wait, it doesn’t matter – the Cards erase a 4-0 deficit with 8 runs in the 4th and 5th to win 13-5
Bry, Dannell, and Mittenthal all survive to pick another day

The Phillies erase a 3-0 Reds lead with 2 in the 6th and 1 in the 8th, before John Mayberry, Jr., won it in the 11th
RyanDoc and Wojo both stay alive here in Round Eleven

The Rangers entered the bottom of the 8th with just a one-run lead over the Twinkies, but entered the top of the 9th with a 7-lead and held on
Tyler remains alive with the W

A 4-hit shutout for Alex Cobb, as the Rays beat the A’s, 5-0
McGrath has the only easy W of the day to keep his round going

OVERALL – 11 of 29 remain
STILL PERFECT (0)
ONE STRIKE (1) – Gillig
TWO STRIKES (10) – Bry, Dannell, Doogan, McGrath, Mittenthal, RyanDoc, RyanSmith, Stumpf, Tyler, Wojo
ELIMINATED (18)

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MLB Suicide Game: Back to Basics

After a couple rough days, the field returned to the midseason form that had pervaded the past couple of rounds with a solid 11-2 day.  The two losses did cost two more people their dreams of winning Round Eleven, though.  Gillig remains in the lead with a single strike.

ELIMINATED:
Kevin (Pirates) falls to 17-12 in the NL (10-12 in the AL)
Rick (Pirates) falls to 23-13 in the NL (11-19 in the AL)

WON TO STAY AT ONE STRIKE:
Gillig (A’s) wins his first A’s pick of the year

WON TO STAY ALIVE:
Bry (Brewers) improves to 4-1 with the Brewers and 17-2 in the NL Central
Dannell (D’backs) goes to one game over .500 in the NLW
Doogan (A’s) is on the board with his first AL win of the year (1-1)
McGrath (Brewers) goes back over the .700 mark for winning % on the year (19-8)
Mittenthal (Brewers) improves to 3-1 with MIL – only STL, WAS, and LAA have more wins for him
RyanDoc (Rangers) wins his 5th game with TEX joining only LAA as 5-win teams for him
RyanSmith (Cardinals) improves to an amazing 6-0 with STL and 11-1 in the NLC
Stumpf (Cardinals) wins his 4th game with STL, joining WAS, PHI, and DET as his 4-game winners
Tyler (D’backs) improves to an impressive 8-1 in the NLW and 20-5 in the NL
Wojo (Rays) improves to 33-6 in his three rounds

OVERALL – 11 of 29 remain
STILL PERFECT (0)
ONE STRIKE (1) – Gillig
TWO STRIKES (10) – Bry, Dannell, Doogan, McGrath, Mittenthal, RyanDoc, RyanSmith, Stumpf, Tyler, Wojo
ELIMINATED (18)

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MLB Suicide Game: Dodging Land Mines

The past two days of Round Eleven has been all about avoiding the big explosion.  A leg up are the people that were able to keep themselves from taking the Mets or A’s Monday night and the Rays last night.  And by “people,” I really mean “person,” as Gillig is the only one in the field that has successfully navigated these past two nights without a strike.  And, thanks to that, after watching 31 strikes be handed out, including the elimination of 11 people, he is the only one of the 13 people still left in the field that doesn’t face elimination with each pick here on out.  On to the specifics from last night.

ELIMINATED:
Boot (Rays) loses his first ALE pick of the whole year
Chad (Rays) also loses his first ALE pick of the year
Greeley (Rays) falls to 0-5 in the ALE
Rohde (Rays) loses with TB for the first time in 4 picks this year
Scott (Rays) loses his 10th ALE game of the year, tying him with RyanSmith for 2nd in ALE losses, behind MattK’s amazing 14
Vito (Rays) falls below .500 in the ALE at 4-5

WON TO STAY AT ONE STRIKE:
Gillig (Mariners) wins for the first time in 3 SEA picks this year

LOST FOR STRIKE TWO:
Bry (Rays) falls to 1-4 with TB – his most losses with any one team
Mittenthal (Rays) falls to 3-9 in the ALE
RyanDoc (Rays) loses his 8th ALE game of the year – most of any division
RyanSmith (Rays) loses his 10th ALE game of the year – most of any division
Stumpf (Mets) falls to 0-2 with NYM this year

WON TO STAY ALIVE:
Dannell (Mariners) wins his first SEA pick of the year
Doogan (Cardinals) improves to 5-1 in the NL
Kevin (Tigers) wins his 3rd game with DET – tied with NYM for most of any one team
Rick (Nationals) wins his 4th game with WAS – tied with SF for second-most of any team, behind LAA with 5
Tyler (Mariners) wins with SEA for the first time in 3 picks
Wojo (Tigers) improves to 12-2 in the AL (5-0 in ALC) – has only played 3 rounds and won with DET in all 3 (also with ARI and WAS)

OVERALL – 13 of 29 remain
STILL PERFECT (0)
ONE STRIKE (1) – Gillig
TWO STRIKES (12) – Bry, Dannell, Doogan, Kevin, McGrath, Mittenthal, Rick, RyanDoc, RyanSmith, Stumpf, Tyler, Wojo
ELIMINATED (16)

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MLB Suicide Game: What a Day to Pick the Padres…of the “Bye”

Wow!  The carnage left yesterday will probably go to define Round Eleven, as the field goes 3-20 on the day, losing 5 more people to elimination and taking the perfect rounds of all four that entered the day without a strike.

R.A. Dickey pitches well, but the Mets offense is nowhere to be found and the bullpen blows it late
Total carnage from this Mets loss, though, surprisingly, of the 11 losses, no one was eliminated.
RyanDoc and RyanSmith both lost their perfect rounds.
9 others got his with their second strikes.

The Twins pound Brandon McCarthy and the A’s
More rubble from this one, as 8 more people take strikes, including the last 2 that were perfect, and 4 eliminations.
Bry and Mittenthal fell from the ranks of the unbeaten.
GrossJr, Jayson, Josh, and Pat all were hit with their final strikes.
Dannell and Rick were both hit with strike #2.

The Braves lose in 13 innings to division-rival Washington
MattK loses his 3rd straight, eliminating him from Round Eleven, after 3 straight wins to start the round.

Jeremy Hellickson and the Rays make easy work of KC on the night
The first game of the night to finish up saw 2 quick suicide Ws – Gillig and Stumpf – keeping each at 1 strike and a share of the lead.

The Padres, behind Edinson Volquez, knock off the Buckos, 3-1 in the late game
Chad stays alive with the SD pick and gains ground on just about the entire field.

Boot picked a great time to use his “bye,” as he gets a free pass to stay alive and pick up a strike on the TWENTY people that were hit yesterday.

OVERALL – 19 of 29 remain
STILL PERFECT (0)
ONE STRIKE (6) – Bry, Gillig, Mittenthal, RyanDoc, RyanSmith, Stumpf
TWO STRIKES (13) – Boot, Chad, Dannell, Doogan, Greeley, Kevin, McGrath, Rick, Rohde, Scott, Tyler, Vito, Wojo
ELIMINATED (10)

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BSB’s 2011 NFL Preview (Recapped 8/20/12)

(UPDATE (8/20/12):  The 2012 NFL Preview is coming shortly, and since we like to be accountable here at BSB, let’s take a look back at how we did last year…the regular type were our opinions before the season started last year, while the italicized and underlined portions are a recap of how we actually did. 

Here we go, friends.  The NFL season!  Gotta love it.  It looked, for a while, like the NFL season would either be abbreviated or extended to 18 games.  Both of which would have put a serious hit on our NFL preview game here on BSB.  But, the more things change, the more they stay the same, and we’ve got ourselves a 16-game schedule this year, so we’re going to plow ahead and rock out another BSB NFL Preview.

For those of you unfamiliar with the preview, Doogan and I will be trying to predict whether each NFL team with either improve or, uh, “get worse” (you’d think someone who likes to write blog posts would be able to think of a word opposite of improve…).  Anyway, we do it kind of a draft kind of process.  Feel free to check out our past previews.  Doogan took our first one in 2008, 17-15, but Bry responded with a come-from-behind 17-15 win in the 2009 version.  Last year, in the 2010 version, Doogan won by the familiar 17-15 score to take over the bragging rights…at least for a year.

So, on to this year’s NFL Preview, BSB-style.  Check back regularly for our picks, as we do them in “real time.”  Bry picked first last year, so Doogan is on the clock…

1. DOOGAN – Carolina Panthers – OVER 2 wins: I’m just gonna jump on the easiest number on the board with Carolina and over 2.  Having recently moved to the great state of North Carolina, I’m gonna try to get some positive karma going here and hope they scrape together just a few W’s, even if they end up underdogs in every game they play.

FINAL: 6-10.  DOOGAN, 1-0
Doogan nails his first pick with ease, though it might be surprising to think that, even with all the Cam Newton love, the Panthers still lost 10 games.

2. BRY – San Diego Chargers – OVER 9 wins: Wow, ya, this one is not gonna be easy, as I’m on my very first pick, and can’t find one gimme.  But, I do like the San Diego Super-Chargers to hit double-digit wins this year.  I don’t think anyone would argue that they weren’t better than a 9-7 team last year, and they haven’t changed all that much this offseason.  While they did lose Darren Sproles, there is at least a chance that Ryan Matthews can be the guy they thought they were drafting.  Plus, 16 healthy games of Vincent Jackson is clearly an upgrade from 6 rusty games of Vincent Jackson.  While they do play a pretty tough schedule, including the Pats, Jets, Ravens, and Packers, they also have 4 games with Oakland and Denver, and it’s unlikely they will lose 3 of them like they did last year.  Let’s not forget, while I generally hate the way we “rank” offense and defense, they did finish last year with the #1 offense AND #1 defense in the league last year.  I cannot imagine the special teams being as historically bad as they were last year.  Yes, it’s not a slam dunk (which it should be with a high pick like this), but I find it hard to believe that this isn’t a 10+-win team this year.

FINAL: 8-8.  DOOGAN, 2-0
For the first time in “season preview” history, one of us gets our very first pick incorrect, as Bry loses on the Chargers.

3. BRY – Chicago Bears – UNDER 11 wins: Yes, this team brings back all the key pieces from a team that hosted the NFC Championship Game last year.  But, do we really think even with the end results from last year that this team was all that good?  And, the last time we saw the Bears, their “franchise quarterback” was pacing the sidelines of the most important game of his life, while his peers took pot shots on Twitter, and some other guy that we’ll never hear from again tried to lead a comeback to send the Bears to the Super Bowl.  This defense is still good, and I do think Cutler is better than he seems to get credit for, but this team just seems destined for a somewhat big step backwards, especially considering they play in a division with the defending champs, an improving and feisty Lions team, and a Vikes team that still does have elite top-end talent, even if their depth is suspect.  Sounds like 8-8, at best, if you ask me, but certainly not 11 wins again.

FINAL: 8-8.  BRY, 1-2
If Cutler and Forte were both healthy all year, Bry may have missed BOTH of his first two picks, but he actually got this one relatively easily.

4. DOOGAN – Atlanta Falcons – UNDER 13 wins: I tend to always be down on the Falcons, but they actually convinced me last year with that best-in-the-NFC 13 win campaign.  Julio Jones should make their offense even more dynamic this year.  They convinced that they’re a solid team, NOT that they’re a powerhouse.  Their schedule may not be brutal, but probably half the games could safely be termed “tough”.  Can they win 5 of those 8 tough ones and avoid slip-ups in any of the other 8?  I really doubt it.  10 or 11 wins in Atlanta this year.

FINAL: 10-6.  DOOGAN, 3-1
Another easy pick for Doogan, as the Falcons do make the playoffs, but fall 3 wins shy of their 10-win 2010 campaign.

5. BRY – Jacksonville Jaguars – UNDER 8 wins: It’s hard to imagine taking an 8-8 team that didn’t change all that much to go under in a mediocre division this early in the game, but that is what I’m going to do here with the Jags.  I think the draft pick of Blaine Gabbert, while it may pay dividends down the road, could torpedo the 2011 Jags season.  A quarterback controversy is never good for the locker room, and I don’t think that this locker room has either the leadership or sheer talent to overcome it.  Maurice Jones-Drew is still a star, but there’s at least a minor chance that he starts to break down after several workhorse seasons in north Florida.  And, the defense is not anything to write home about.  I see this team much more likely to compete for the #1 draft pick than the AFC South.

FINAL: 5-11.  BRY, 2-3
This one wasn’t ever really in doubt, as Bry cruises to the point here.

6. DOOGAN – Dallas Cowboys – OVER 6 wins: Tony Romo is back under center and this offense should be able to put up a lot of points.  Their downfall last year was the defense and, luckily for us Eagle fans, they didn’t do much to improve there personnel-wise.  They did bring in Rob Ryan as the new DC though, and there’s enough talent there for them to at least be half-decent on that side of the ball.  With a pretty favorable schedule to work with (all NFC West teams plus Buffalo and Miami at home in inter-conference play), I’ll call them for 9-7.

FINAL:  8-8.  DOOGAN, 4-2
Doogan had a nice call here, though he was a tad optimistic, as the ‘Boys only went 8-8, but it was enough for the point.

7. BRY – Houston Texans – OVER 6 wins: Dallas and the over?  How’d that feel, Doogan?  Anyway, for years and years there has been a Texans bandwagon around this time.  I have tried hard not to get caught up in it in the past, and I feel like I’ve done a decent job doing so.  But, this year, they got me.  I believe in them this year around.  Their offense is stellar, but they have addressed their big problem last year – their pass defense – by adding the second-best free agent corner, in James Joseph, and another decent d-back in Daniel Manning.  With a healthy Arian Foster, I see this team as at least a decent shot at winning the division, but even without a healthy Foster, I think this team is easily a .500 team, at worst.

FINAL:  10-6.  BRY, 3-4
Another easy point for Bry here, as he tries to keep pace with Doogan, who has yet to miss a pick.

8. DOOGAN – Kansas City Chiefs – UNDER 10 wins: WR Steve Breaston and NT Kelly Gregg are two solid, if unspectacular, additions, but the Chiefs have a few things working against them.  Most importantly, they picked up those 10 wins last year on the strength of one of the easiest schedules in the league.  After a first-place finish and matching up with the NFC North instead of the West, that won’t be the case this year.  Also, Charlie Weis seemed to have a real positive impact on Matt Cassel last year, which very well might not last with Weis now gone.  Finally, I love picking against these teams that make a big leap into the playoffs like they did.  They tend to come crashing back to earth the next year.

FINAL:  7-9.  DOOGAN, 5-3
Doogan stays perfect through 4 picks, as he wins this one with a 3-game cushion.

9. BRY – Oakland Raiders – UNDER 8 wins: Not sure if anyone has heard, but this guy named Nnamdi used to be on the Raiders and now he’s on some other team.  I can’t really remember which team he’s on now, but he’s pretty good, and the Raiders will probably miss him.  In all seriousness, I did think that this defense was actually coming along last year and showed signs of being pretty good, but you simply cannot subtract a guy like Nnamdi and expect to be the same defense.  And, while I don’t mind the McFadden/Bush running back duo, the offense was not very good last year and lost maybe their best pass-catcher in tight end Zach Miller.  People keep telling me that, at one point, Al Davis was a brilliant football mind and a really important part of the game we now know and love to be the NFL, but I’m now 32 years old, so if someone was good before my time, they’re probably overdue in giving up the reigns.  Put me down for no more than 6 wins from this Oakland team this year.

FINAL:  8-8.  DOOGAN, 6-3
Bry misses his second pick of the contest here, as the Raiders equal their 2010 record of 8-8.

10. DOOGAN – Miami Dolphins – UNDER 7 wins: Maybe the hardest thing to do in the NFL is win without a decent quarterback, so the Dolphins were probably fortunate to win 7 games last year.  With Chad Henne and Matt Moore as their play-calling options, it could be a brutal year on the offensive side of the ball for the Fins.  The defense is solid, but this just has the feel of a team that is looking to the future and will probably clean-house, on the roster and the coaching staff, after a really poor season in 2011.

FINAL:  6-10.  DOOGAN 7-3
They are getting harder, as usual, by this point, but Doogan does hit on the Dolphins getting to double-digit losses.

11. BRY – Indianapolis Colts – UNDER 10 wins: Betting on the Colts to not reach double-digit wins is one of those stupid things that people do that help build big, beautiful casinos in the middle of the desert.  But, I might just be another sucker here because I am going with them to fall below 10 wins for the first time in 10 years.  (Actually, they had their consecutive 12-win season streak snapped last at 7, which I believe is the second-best streak of my lifetime behind Roger Federer’s consecutive Grand Slam semifinals appearances.)  But, there is something about this year in Indy.  Maybe it’s the schedule.  Maybe it’s three or four mediocre-to-poor drafts in a row.  Maybe it’s an aging Reggie Wayne and zero running game.  Or…maybe it’s Kerry Collins.  But, even if Peyton does play 16 games, I’m not sure they win 10 of them.

FINAL:  2-14.  BRY 4-7
Lost in the chase for the #1 pick was how quickly the Colts had fallen from such long-standing heights.  I know that they lost their Hall of Fame QB, but after a full decade of seasons with double-digit wins, to see them at 2-14 is quite a shock.

12. DOOGAN – New York Giants – UNDER 10 wins: It hasn’t been a real smooth offseason for Big Blue, which is obviously pretty awesome.  Eli’s favorite receiver, Steve Smith, bolted unexpectedly to their arch rivals, and they also had to deal with the whole Osi Umenyiora mess.  They also lost a couple of veteran offensive linemen.  Those linemen may have been too old to still be effective, but they’ve left some serious question marks on the O-line.  With the Eagles and Cowboys most likely taking a step forward this year, the Giants could easily slip to being a .500 team.

FINAL:  9-7.  DOOGAN, 8-4
So, the Giants missed the playoffs in 2010 and WON THE SUPER BOWL in 2011.  So, you’d think that Doogan’s UNDER pick would be a loser, right?  Wrong.  The Giants were actually a game worse in 2011, giving Doogan his 6th straight correct pick.  Wow!

13. BRY – Denver Broncos – OVER 4 wins: First thing’s first – I am not a huge fan of this team.  I don’t think they are very good.  I think they made a progress-halting decision of drafting Tim Tebow in the first round last year and right after Josh McDaniel decided that he was too smart to have a strong-armed talented quarterback or a 100-catch wideout, so he sent Cutler and Marshall packing.  Now, he’s gone too, and their offensive personnel doesn’t fit their new coach’s style and their defensive personnel isn’t very good.  But…4 is a really low number.  And, as anyone who has ever read any of these previews, I have this ridiculously inflated opinion of John Fox.  I think he’s a fantastic coach.  And, as you can see in picks #8 and #9, the Chiefs and Raiders are not expected to be as good, so 5 wins should not be all that far-fetched.

FINAL:  8-8.  BRY 5-8
Tebow-Mania gives Bry a more comfortable win here than any of the Broncos actual wins all season.

14. DOOGAN – Philadelphia Eagles – OVER 10 wins: Time to go for it.  Will the offensive line be good enough?  More importantly, can it keep Mike Vick upright and on the field?  Will DeSean stay happy and healthy?  Will the linebackers be the downfall of a revamped defense?  Can the rookie kicker come through in the clutch?  All legitimate questions, but when it comes right down to it this is a team with proven talent all over the field, a wealth of explosive play-makers on both sides of the ball, and a coaching staff that, even if it tends to sabotage itself now and then, also has a proven track-record of success, especially in the regular season.  With the rest of the division in varying degrees of transition, they’re clearly the division favorite.  They also get to play the entire NFC West, and their match-ups with the AFC East are favorable because they get the Pats and Jets at home, making those games more winnable.  A lot of questions to be answered, but 12 wins seems like a smart guess right now.

FINAL:  8-8.  BRY 6-8
The pain for Doogan of losing his 6-pick streak is doubled by the fact that it was by missing an OVER pick on the Birds.  Bry climbs back into contention here.

15. BRY – Baltimore Ravens – UNDER 12 wins: I guess I waited one pick too long to pull the trigger on the Birds Over – nice pick, and I agree.  As my next pick, I am going against a team in whom I always seem to have a TON of confidence.  But, 12 wins is a LOT of wins, and I am not at all enthralled with the offseason here in B’more.  Granted, if you’re a Ravens fan, you have to have all the confidence and trust in the world in Ozzie Newsome and company, but it’s hard to argue that this team got better this offseason.  Plus, this team is built on defense and their two core defensive players (Lewis and Reed) on on the downsides of their careers – albeit first-ballot HoF careers, but still.  They also let go of a lot of veteran leadership on the offensive side of the ball, with the cuts of Todd Heap, Derrick Mason, and Willis McGahee.  While none of these three were stars anymore, nor are they irreplaceable, their combined losses leave this offense with a lot less depth and a lot less margin for error when it comes to injuries.  They are one Ray Rice or Anquan Boldin injury away from real offensive issues.  I would still bet on this team to make the playoffs, and the only reason it took me this long to make this pick is because of faith in this organization and an incredibly favorable schedule (NFC West and AFC South).  But, easy schedule or no, this team just doesn’t smell like a 12-win team to me.

FINAL:  12-4.  DOOGAN, 9-6
The pick getting back in it, Bry gives one right back, as the Ravens – AGAIN – pile up a 12-win season.  Honestly, this is a truly elite franchise.

16. DOOGAN – St. Louis Rams – OVER 7 wins: They’re the best team in their division, so the OVER on 7 wins should be pretty much a no-brainer.  The problem: they were the best team in their division last year, too.  Still, Sam Bradford could be poised to become a big asset at the most important position, Steven Jackson still has something left in the tank, and they made an upgrade on the O-line.  I have a lot of faith in Steve Spagnuolo’s defensive coaching abilities, and Quintin Mikell should help, especially since he’s familiar with the scheme already.  In the worst division in the game, I see no reason why they can’t hit 9 wins and host a playoff game.

FINAL:  2-14.  BRY, 7-9
A big miss here by Doogan, but it’s not surprising, as most people thought the Rams would be better than they were.  Bry is still alive here, as the picks continue to get harder.

17. BRY – New England Patiots – UNDER 14 wins: Do I think the Pats will take a step backwards?  No.  Do I think Brady has lost a step?  No.  Do I think Belichick is the best head coach in football?  Yes – I may even make the case that he’s one of the greatest coaches of all time.  Do I think Ochocinco is going to have a big year?  Maybe.  Do I think Albert Haynesworth is gonna be a beast on the D-line?  Yes.  Do I think that the Patriots are the best team in the NFL?  Yes, actually.  However, with all that said, 14 is just too big of a number.  If you held a gun to my head and said “pick this year’s Super Bowl champs,” I would take New England.  But, I think they can easily do that with 12 or 13 wins.  14 is a lot for anyone.

FINAL:  13-3.  BRY, 8-9
While Bry had clinched this in Week 9, it turned out to be by the skin of his teeth, as the Pats rolled off 8 straight wins to end the season.

18. DOOGAN – Detroit Lions – OVER 6 wins: I’ve been considering this pick for a while now because logic says this should be an improved team in 2011, but when I look through their schedule it’s not too difficult to imagine them struggling to get more than 6 wins.  That being said, they’re in a similar boat to the Rams in the sense that they have a potential young star at the QB position in Matthew Stafford.  Last year, Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton both saw more snaps than Stafford, and it can only be a good thing for the Lions to have him in there.  Of course, he’ll need to stay healthy.  Calvin Johnson is one of the best young wide-outs in the league.  Nick Fairley was a potential steal with the 13th pick in the draft, and he could team with Ndamukong Suh to form a lethal interior D-line for years to come.  This team closed out last year with four straight wins.  They’re probably at least a year away from a long-awaited playoff return, but they can win 8 this year.

FINAL:  10-6.  DOOGAN, 10-8
After back-to-back misses, Doogan is back on track with an easy win.  It’s interesting to see how long it took us to take the much-hyped Lions with such a low number, but I guess that shows you that, in retrospect, their 10-win season wasn’t nearly as expected as it may seem now.

19. BRY – Cleveland Browns – OVER 5 wins: This is not a great team, but I actually kind of like their offense right now.  I am a Colt McCoy believer.  I think he has shown a really encouraging combination of talent and moxy that tells me that there is a chance that he becomes a decent NFL quarterback.  Then again, I have been saying similar things about Chad Henne for the better part of three years now, so I may not exactly be the best judge of quarterbacking talent.  Along with McCoy, the Browns also have a pretty ferocious offensive line and may have found themselves a feature back in Peyton Hillis, as long as the Madden cover jinx doesn’t rear its ugly face (by the way, is Hillis the strangest Madden cover figure ever?).  McCoy still doesn’t have too many receiving weapons, and, though the secondary led by Joe Haden is decent, the front seven on defense is still a work in progress, but the schedule is pretty soft, and I think Pat Shurmur might be a decent head coach.  Put me down for 6-8 wins for the Brownies this year.

FINAL:  4-12.  DOOGAN, 11-8
A big point for Doogan here, as Bry misses on a really bad Browns team.  The sentence “I am a Colt McCoy believer” is echoing pretty loudly right now.

20. DOOGAN – Green Bay Packers – OVER 10 wins: This late in the game, I’m pretty happy to grab the Over on 10 for the defending champs.  Much has been made of all the injuries the Packers had last year, with a lot of people making the assumption that they’ll be even better this year.  I’m not ready to make that assumption, especially because I think the challenges that come with being the defending champ are real.  But, I don’t see any reason why can’t be just as good as they were last year, and the should have won at least a couple more than 10 games a year ago.

FINAL:  15-1.  DOOGAN, 12-8
Another seemingly easy pick in retrospect gives Doogan a commanding lead heading into the final 8 picks.

21. BRY – Tampa Bay Buccanneers – UNDER 10 wins: Ya, that’s pretty good value at #20, Doogan.  I’ll take the Bucs to slide a little bit back to reality this year.  While there is no reason to really think that this team will be any worse than they were last year, considering all their key players are young, and they have one of the best up-and-coming quarterbacks in the game.  But, I don’t think they were 10-wins good last year, I think they more benefitted from some good fortune and a favorable schedule.  Plus, they do have major question marks in the secondary now with the legal troubles of Aqib Talib and other issues among important d-backs.  Despite that, I actually think that this year’s Bucs team might be just as good or better than last year’s, yet still not reach 10 wins this time around.

FINAL:  4-12.  BRY, 9-12
Bry does what he needs to here, as he gets an easy point at #21.  These mid-to-late picks aren’t supposed to be this easy…

22. DOOGAN – Buffalo Bills – OVER 4 wins: The Bills put up some random big offensive days last season, and even if they don’t have a ton of talent on that offense, they do have pretty much all the same guys back, so there’s reason to believe they can be an average offense this season.  Shawne Merriman looks like he could be an asset on defense, and 3rd-overall pick Marcel Dareus could have an immediate impact on the d-line.  Also worth noting that after an 0-8 start last year, they finished 4-4, with three of those final four losses being to the Steelers, Pats, and Jets.  I could see them winning 7 this year.

FINAL:  6-10.  DOOGAN, 13-9
Doogan saw them for 7; he got 6 and got the point.  Though, it seems like the Bills were even better than 6-10, looking back.

23. BRY – Cincinnati Bengals – OVER 4 wins: I would feel bad about making this pick after a Week One victory, but I give my word that this was my next pick, anyway.  Plus, they did lose their starting quarterback in the game, so who knows.  But, anyway, I don’t think this team is all that good, but 4 is a very low number, and the AFC North was given a really soft schedule this year (NFC West and AFC South – probably the two worst divisions in the league).  This team is also only 2 years removed from 10 wins and an impressive sweep of this division.  Their defense isn’t terrible (for a 4-win team), and they do have Cedric Benson and a slew of promising young weapons on the offensive side, including #4 overall pick, A.J. Green.  Their QB position is a huge question mark, but the dirty little secret is that their QB wasn’t all that good last year, either, regardless of what people may believe about Carson Palmer.  I’m not convinced that the reason he wasn’t traded is because of some weird Mike Brown “line in the sand.”  I kind of think that the rest of the league might not have been all that interested.

FINAL:  9-7.  BRY, 10-13
Bry looks savvy on this pick, as the Bengals made the playoffs, but he clearly didn’t think that was going to happen, though the point counts all the same.

24. DOOGAN – Pittsburgh Steelers – UNDER 12 wins: Wow, that was an ugly Week 1 performance!  A team like this, with a winner at QB, some of the sport’s elite playmakers on defense, and very capable head coach, will find a way to right the ship, but after a game like that, going under on 12 feels fairly easy.

FINAL:  12-4.  BRY, 11-13
The Steelers rebounded from a terrible Week One to get to the 12 number and give Bry life in this competition.

25. BRY – Seattle Seahawks – UNDER 7 wins: If we could have taken the UNDER on playoff wins, this might have been the top pick on the board, but the fact that they only won 7 regular season games last year makes this a much trickier proposition.  Plus, throw in the fact that they play 6 games in a bad division, and it’s even tougher.  But, there really just isn’t any talent on this team.  They might be the worst team in the league.  And, while I have to root for Tavaris Jackson for the “All-Jackson” fantasy team, he really isn’t very good…at all.  Put me down for 4-5 wins for the ‘Hawks, with a higher possibility of 2 wins and Andrew Luck than 7 wins and another year of T-Jax.

FINAL:  7-9.  DOOGAN, 14-11
Even more brutal for Bry than this number going exactly 7 again is that one of those 7 was the ugly Thursday night win over the Eagles…

26. DOOGAN – New Orleans Saints – OVER 11 wins: Tough to go over on a big number for a team that already has one in the L column, but their all tough calls at this point.  Drew Brees showed last week that he’s ready for a bounce back year after an off year last year that probably had a lot to do with a nagging knee injury.  Darren Sproles (7 catches, 75 yards) showed that they won’t miss Reggie Bush much.  Marques Colston going down with a broken collarbone is a blow, but there’s still plenty of nice options for Brees to chuck it to.  They should put up a ton of points all year, and should also be favored in every game from here on out, with the exception of their trip to Atlanta in November.

FINAL:  13-3.  DOOGAN, 15-11
Doogan gets to a game away from clinching at least a tie, as the Saints improve by 2 games over a solid 11-5 year.

27. BRY – Washington Redskins – OVER 6 wins: Now that we’re two games in, it’s hard to eliminate what we already know about the season, so their 2-0 start is obviously out there for all to see.  But, I was thinking Over on the ‘Skins anyway, and in my week-by-week preview, I did have them winning these two games, so I guess I can lean on that.  Either way, I had a little fear of this team coming out of the preseason because it looks like Mike Shanahan finally has “his team” there in Washington, and that can be scary.  Also, as I’ve said a couple of times here on BSB, I’m not sure why everyone thinks that Rex Grossman is not one of the best 32 quarterbacks on the planet.  Is he top ten?  Certainly not.  But, the dude wins, and, to shamelessly (more like, lazily) quote myself here, “I believe that the job of a professional athlete is to win ballgames.  And, as pretty much anyone will confess, the quarterback of a football team has more to do with a team’s season-long success than any other position in sports (considering that a starting pitcher, who admittedly may affect individual games more, only pitches 1 out of every 5 games).  So, why do we all love guys like Matt Schaub and Daunte Culpepper, but can’t stand the Vince Youngs and Rex Grossmans of the world?  I don’t get it.  Grossman is 31-17 as a starting quarterback, including a Super Bowl run.  And, it’s not like he has been throwing to Andre Johnson, Cris Carter, or Randy Moss in any of his various stops (you know, other than the 1 game he started as Schaub’s backup last year).  I’m not saying the Skins are headed to the Super Bowl, but Shanahan may not be the grumpy old man he was made out to be last year.”  Gimme the ‘Skins as a .500 team this year.

FINAL:  5-11.  DOOGAN, 16-11
Bry loses all shot at an outright victory because of the faith he put in the Dedskins to play .500 ball last year.  Oh, and another team that beat the Eagles and still went UNDER.

28. DOOGAN – Tennessee Titans – OVER 6 wins: They’re left without Jeff Fisher (a head coach I really respect), Vince Young or Kerry Collins, and with a number of key players gone from the defense.  So why will they get better?  For one, they lost a number of games that they should’ve won a year ago.  They may not be a contender these days, but the cupboard isn’t bare, especially considering they have one of the top players in the league carrying the ball, Chris Johnson.  He practically gives them a decent offense by himself, because the opposing defense has to key on him and Matt Hasselbeck can try to not screw things up.  With the Colts obviously taking a huge step backward, that makes the schedule look a lot less daunting.  It’s suddenly an up-for-grabs division, which means the Titans should be able to hang around .500.

FINAL:  9-7.  DOOGAN, 17-11
Does anyone remember that the Titans won 9 games in 2011?  Well, Doogan does, as it is the pick that clinched a second straight NFL Preview title.

29. BRY – Arizona Cardinals – OVER 5 wins: You know that a division is bad if the perceived “best” team in the division doesn’t go over on SEVEN WINS until pick #16.  Then, the next one off the board is the defending division champs and UNDER SEVEN WINS.  Now, the other two left with four teams to pick from are sitting with lines of 5 and 6.  Someone has to win these games, right?  Right?  Well, I am going to take the Cards and the Over because, well, they may have the best QB in the division (it’s at least close between Kolb and Bradford) and when is the last time a team with a division’s best QB lost 11 games?  But…I’m not confident in this one in any way whatsoever.

FINAL:  8-8.  BRY, 12-17
Just playing out the string here, as Bry hits on what turned out to be a comfortable OVER pick of the Cards (another team that beat the Eagles…ugh).

30. DOOGAN – Minnesota Vikings – UNDER 6 wins: Brad Childress proved himself to be grossly inept as an NFL head coach, and it seems like things may have to get worse for the Vikings before they get better in the wake of his tenure.  With the emergence of the Lions, the Vikings seem destined for a last place finish and spot pretty far up the draft board come April.

FINAL:  3-13.  DOOGAN, 18-12
Just pouring it on now in a very impressive prediction performance by Doogan this year, as he nails the Vikings UNDER by 3 whole games.

31. BRY – San Francisco 49ers – OVER 6 wins: Everything I said about the Cardinals can also apply to the 49ers – it’s just a harder pick because the line is 6 and not 5.  But, sign me up for the over on both of them, hoping I just split them…

FINAL:  13-3.  BRY, 13-18
Fortunately, Bry’s last pick (usually a coin flip) fell on the right side…BY 7 GAMES – or this would have been a really ugly way to finish.

32. DOOGAN – New York Jets – UNDER 11 wins: Coin toss…?

FINAL:  8-8.  DOOGAN, 19-13
Doogan’s coin toss at #32 hits right by 3 games, and he finishes with a very impressive 19-13 victory.

Doogan nailed 13 of his 16 picks, while Bry only hit on 10 of his 16.  Congrats to Mr. Doogan on a well-earned victory and the ability to keep the crown for another year.

Posted in season previews | Tagged | 2 Comments

MLB Suicide Game: Despite 20 More Winners, We Do Lose 4 From the Contest

Another 20-win day (20-8) does see some tough losses, as four people exit Round Eleven.  The field is now 105-36 here in Round Eleven.  74% of the picks this round have been from the National League (80-24).  The Reds have given us 17 Ws, while the Nats have given us 14.  The Cardinals are 8-8 for the field so far this round. 

ELIMINATED:
Dan (Giants) has only played 2 round this year and has lost with SF in both of them
Dave (Giants) falls to 3-6 in the NLW – his only division under .500
Steve (Marlins), despite the loss, still holds a .667 winning % on the year (34-17)
Walsh (Marlins) falls to 0-3 with MIA this year

WON TO STAY PERFECT:
Bry (D’backs) wins his 10th NLW game of the year (10-4)
Mittenthal (Reds) wins his first CIN pick of the year
RyanDoc (Nationals) picks up his first WAS win of the year (WAS is the winningest team overall)
RyanSmith (Nationals) evens his NLE record at 7-7

LOST FOR STRIKE ONE:
Rohde (Marlins) falls to 2-2 with MIA and 10-8 in the NLE (his worst division)

WON TO STAY AT ONE STRIKE:
Dannell (Nationals) wins his 4th game with WAS – most of any team
Doogan (Nationals) remains undefeated in the NL this season (4-0)
Gillig (Nationals) improves to 31-13 in the NL
Greeley (Reds) gets his 9th win between the NLC and NLE (only 2 wins from other 4 divisions combined)
Kevin (D’backs) improves to 17-10 in the NL (9-12 in the AL)
McGrath (Nationals) wins #2 with WAS – joining STL as his only multiple winners
Rick (Reds) improves to 22-12 in the NL (11-18 in the AL)
Scott (Nationals) improves to a ridiculous 6-0 with WAS
Stumpf (Nationals) wins his 4th with WAS – tied with PHI and DET for most Ws from a single team
Tyler (Orioles) improves to an impressive 6-2 in the ALE
Vito (Nationals) wins his 9th NLE game of the year – most of any division
Wojo (Nationals) improves to a mediocre 31-5 in suicide game history

LOST FOR STRIKE TWO:
Boot (Giants) loses with SF for the 2nd time – first team with multiple losses for the Boot
MattK (Angels) falls to 8-21 in the AL
Pat (Giants) has still made all 5 of his career suicide picks from the NL

WON TO STAY ALIVE:
Chad (Reds) has 2 of his 6 career wins coming from CIN
GrossJr (Nationals) improves to 8-5 in the NLE – no other division has given him more than 5 wins
Jayson (Yankees) is still only 3-5 in the ALE
Josh (Nationals) is still only 6-7 in the NLE – his only division under .500

OVERALL – 24 of 29 remain
STILL PERFECT (4) – Bry, Mittenthal, RyanDoc, RyanSmith
ONE STRIKE (13) – Dannell, Doogan, Gillig, Greeley, Kevin, McGrath, Rick, Rohde, Scott, Stumpf, Tyler, Vito, Wojo
TWO STRIKES (7) – Boot, Chad, GrossJr, Jayson, Josh, MattK, Pat
ELIMINATED (5)

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