Broad Street Believers

The theme of Day Five all over was chalk, chalk, chalk, and the CAA, mostly, did their part.

#9 UNC-Wilmington 70 – #8 James Madison 59
The one CAA exception to the chalkiness was the mild upset of UNCW over JMU.  A terrible season ends for JMU, while Wilmington moves on to face #1 Drexel on Saturday in the quarters.  Bry, Doogan, and RDoc are the only three who hit this one.

#5 Delaware 72 – #12 Towson 65
Probably not as the Blue Hens drew it up, but, at this time of year, any win is a good win.  UDel moves on to face #4 Old Dominion in Saturday’s quarters.  Everyone got this right, but Waters is the most relieved that Delaware survived, as he has them in the finals.

#7 Northeastern 57 – #10 William & Mary 49
Not exactly the prettiest of basketball games, but, again, any win is a good win.  The Tribe ends another disappointing season without making the NCAA tournament.  NE moves on to a Saturday day with #2 VCU.  Several people missed the upset pick, but Teddy took the biggest hit, as he had W&M beating VCU.

#6 Georgia St. 85 – #11 Hofstra 50
Now, Hofstra didn’t exactly have a great (or even a mediocre) team this year, but for GSU to pound them by 35 in the tournament is very impressive.  #3 George Mason better come ready to play in Saturday’s quarters because the Panthers look good.  This was a huge CTC game, as 7 people missed a big upset pick, while 6 others kept alive a semifinalist.  Teddy and Alexi both have GSU in the finals.

CAA LEADERS (30*) – Alexi, RDoc
CAA CELLAR (14) – Dave, Doogan, J, KA, Lohse, Lynch, Mac, RSmith, Scoot, Stri, Teddy, Waters

A couple very interesting semifinals in the A-Sun, sets up Saturday’s championship.

#1 Belmont 69 – #4 E. Tennessee St. 61
ETSU led most of the way, but Belmont rallied and won by a margin larger than the game would seem to dictate.  Dave and J missed solid upset picks.  Bry and KA already had it wrong.  The other 16 picked up 12 points.

#6 Florida Gulf Coast 62 – #2 Mercer 58
FGC has still never lost a postseason game in D-I…just sayin’.  Mercer was down 1 with :21 seconds left when an 83% FT shooter was fouled.  He missed the front-end of the one-and-one.  After FGC made one of two FTs, the Bears had the ball back, down 2.  With 2.3 seconds left, the second-best FT shooter in the A-Sun (91%) was fouled and went to the line and missed the first shot, and then committed a lane violation on the intentional miss that followed (which was, of course, rebounded by a teammate).  It was brutally ugly, and FGC is 40 minutes away from going to the Big Dance.  Bry, Dave, Doogan, and RDoc all lose their champ here.  No one hit this upset, but there were a handful of people who picked USC-Upstate here that are happy Mercer lost so that these points would go to no one.

A-SUN LEADER (42) – RDoc
A-SUN CELLAR (18) – Bry (’10), J (’11/’09/’08), Lynch

Going into the Horizon quarterfinal doubleheader, it looked like it was going to be a great and thrilling night of hoops.  What we got was anything but thrilling because two of the teams were great.

#3 Detroit 93 – #6 Youngstown St. 76
The Titans got out to a huge lead and never looked back.  They cruise to the victory and advance to the semis on Saturday to face #2 Cleveland St.  Stri and Teddy missed the upset pick.  Dave, Gross, and Lohse keep their champion alive.

#5 Butler 71 – #4 UW-Milwaukee 49
Uh oh…Butler is at it again.  The Bulldogs look really good at just the right time yet again.  They are still two tough games away from the NCAA tournament, but they passed a tough test tonight, hammering UWM.  The field was pretty split on this game, so it was nice for anyone who got this win, but it was especially nice for RSmith, who has the Bulldogs winning this tournament.

HORIZON LEADERS (50*): Bry (’11*), Primm, RSmith, Waters (’08)
HORIZON CELLAR (12): J

The 3 & 4 seeds, Tenn Tech and Morehead joined the party with wins last night, and the OVC is ready for the bubble world to watch when #9 nationally, Murray St., joins the party.  And, every bubble team from from Harvard to Miami to Colorado St. will be watching intently rooting hard for Murray State to keep the OVC as a one-bid league.

#1 Murray St. vs #4 Tennessee Tech
Tonight’s “bubble villain?”  Tennessee Tech.  Lost in this Murray St. frenzy was the fact that they were picked FOURTH in the OVC in the preseason.  That’s right…fourth.  Tennessee Tech was actually picked to win the league and now they can prove them prognosticators right…at least for a day…with a shot at Murray.  They are coming off a 4-point win over upstart SEMO last night.  19 people have Murray St. winning this game.  One person has Tennessee Tech.  So, Gersh can gain 34 points on the other 19 people with a TTech win tonight.

#2 Tennessee St. vs. #3 Morehead St.
In some ways, Murray St. can thank Tennessee St., as it was their upset of the Racers that took some of the pressure off Murray this week.  But, then again, it is the Tigers that might be in the way of a 30th win on the season tomorrow night.  But, both teams have work to do before we get there.  Morehead took care of the feisty Jacksonville St. last night and now get to tangle with the tournament hosts.  While 19 people had Murray in taking one spot in the finals, the other spot had an array of selections.  Two people – Gross and KA – have already lost this game by picking Austin Peay.  Two more – J and Teddy – have already lost with Jacksonville St. here.  7 can come through with the nice upset pick of Morehead (Gersh, Lil Lohse, Mac, Primm, RSmith, Scoot, Waters).  The other 9 entries have TSU winning tonight, though no one has the Tigers winning this tournament.  On the other hand, Gersh, Waters, and RSmith all have Morehead taking this title.

We all know my love for Arch Madness, but it is probably my second-favorite conference tournament every year, behind the CAA.  It’s hard to say why, but the Colonial tournament is easily the one I most look forward to every year.  And, it kicks off today with an Opening Round quadruple-header.

Championship Picks
9 for #1 Drexel
6 for #2 VCU (Bry, Dave, Doogan, Gross, J, Lohse)
3 for #3 George Mason (Gersh, Primm, RSmith)
1 for #4 Old Dominion (Teddy)

Biggest Upsets
R1 – #11 Hofstra (Bry, KA, Lynch, Mac, RSmith, Scoot)
QF – #6 Georgia St. (Alexi, Dave, Doogan, J, Lohse, RDoc, Teddy)
SF – #6 Georia St. (Alexi, Teddy)

Previous CTC Champions
2011 – Bry
2010 – Bry
2009 – Ina
2008 – Alexi

#5 Delaware vs. #12 Towson
I live 10 minutes from the Towson campus, so trust me when I say this…this team is really, really bad.  As for the Blue Hens, they have actually had a really nice season this year and could be a real sleeper in this year’s CAA tournament.  #4 ODU awaits the winner of this game, so for a night, the Monarchs may be huge Towson fans.  No one has Towson here.  7 people have Delaware beating ODU in the quarters (Gross, J, KA, Lil Lohse, Lynch, RDoc, RSmith), though none of them have the Blue Hens reaching the final.

#6 Georgia St. vs. #11 Hofstra
The Panthers of Georgia St. are the classic senior-laden college team that no one expected much from, but easily outperformed any expectations.  I’m not sure why these teams surprise us every year.  Having a senior-laden team doesn’t necessarily mean you will “win big” anymore in college hoops, but it certainly almost always means that you won’t “lose big.”  You would be hard-pressed to find a team of mostly upperclassmen that finish near the bottom of a league, so having the Panthers in contention all year, despite being picked 11th in the conference in the preseason just means that the prediction was lazy.  This team is very solid.  Hofstra is the complete opposite – they are a very inexperienced team, who actually weren’t supposed to be that bad, but were.  However, they have been starting to put it together as of late (there is talent here), so this could be a dangerous spot for a GSU team that really wants to make one last run.  The winner here gets a shot at #3 George Mason in the quarters.  This is about as HUGE as an opening round game can be, as far as CTC implications go.  6 people have Hofstra in a pretty big upset (Bry, KA, Lynch, Mac, RSmith, Scoot).  7 others (Alexi, Dave, Doogan, J, Lohse, RDoc, Teddy) went the total opposite direction and have Georgia State not only winning this game, but the next one too.  Alexi and Teddy even have the Panthers reaching the finals.  This one First Round CAA game could have a pretty huge impact on the CTC.

#7 Northeastern vs. #10 William & Mary
Forget this talk about the droughts of Northwestern and Harvard, what about William & Mary.  The oldest university in North America (I’m too lazy to look up how long they’ve had a basketball team) and they have NEVER made the NCAA tournament.  Well, this is probably not going to be the year for them, as they are, well, not very good.  But, you never know, they have been playing better down the stretch, winning 2 of their last 4, with both losses being by 4 or less to top-tier teams (Drexel and GSU) and one of the wins being a 25-point beatdown of the very team they draw in Round One.  Northeastern has been a bit of an enigma this year – sometimes they look really good and other times they, well, lost by 25 to W&M.  #2 VCU awaits the winner here in the quarters.  7 people took W&M in the solid upset pick (Bry, Dave, Doogan, J, Lohse, Stri, Teddy).  Teddy even has the Tribe beating VCU next round.  No one has Northeastern making the semis.

#8 James Madison vs. #9 UNC-Wilmington
It is probably unfair to do this, but the Wilmington season will probably be summarized in four words:  “They lost to Towson.”  But, in reality, the Seahawks weren’t absolutely terrible this year and were actually in contention for a little while in the CAA (due mostly to a very back-loaded schedule).  JMU, on the other hand, was supposed to be a real contender this year yet finished 5-13 in the conference.  White-hot and #1 Drexel awaits the winner of this one in the quarters.  Alexi, Bry, and RDoc are the only three people that like the Seahawks in this one.  Everyone else has JMU.  No one has either team beating Drexel in the quarters.

An underwhelming Opening Round in the MVC tournament has set the stage for, quite possibly, the best quadruple-header in recent memory.  This is gonna be absolutely fantastic.

#1 Wichita St. vs. #8 Indiana St.
The Sycamores knocked off S. Illinois last night and their reward is the red-hot, sleeper Sweet 16 pick, Wichita State Shockers.  Wichita should be in the NCAA tournament no matter what happens this weekend, but they would be smart to not leave it to chance and get at least one victory here in St. Louis.  There is one lone voice calling out for the huge upset (not a bad place to take a shot, actually) in this one and that voice answers to the name of “Dave.”  Most of the field has WSU winning this whole thing.

#2 Creighton vs. #7 Drake
Doug McDermott and the Blue Jays got to watch as Drake had to scratch and claw with Bradley in the Opening Round.  Now, these two will play the MVC nightcap in the quarters.  Like Wichita, I think Creighton is solidly in the Dance, but should probably cement it with at least one win in this tournament.  Mountain Street believes in this Drake team, as both J and KA took them in a nice upset pick here.

#3 Evansville vs. #6 Missouri St.
Two names that you probably have never heard – Colt Ryan and Kyle Weems – are two guys to pay attention to if you get a chance to watch this game.  Weems, the reigning MVC POY, can do everything from the forward position, including score with his back to the basket, as well as step outside to hit a jumper or even take you off the dribble.  Ryan is a lightning-quick two-guard with a dead-eye jumpshot who can just flat-out score.  This should be a war.  Talk about a live underdog, as nearly half the field (Alexi, Bry, Dave, Doogan, Gross, Lil Lohse, Rikey, RDoc, Waters) took MSU in the upset here.  Doogan and RDoc have the Bears actually making the finals.  J, KA, and Lohse all have Evansville reaching the finals.  KA has the Purple Aces winning the whole thing.

#4 Illinois St. vs #5 N. Iowa
All four games are fantastic, and I am so looking forward to, but maybe none more than this one.  Not only are these two teams so evenly matched, but whichever team survives this battle is going to be a really tough out.  Furthermore, this game itself is the classic “battle of styles.”  Illinois St. might be the quickest, most athletic team in the Valley, while UNI might be the most methodical, disciplined team under Coach Jacobson.  If the Redbirds can get this game into a fullcourt style, they should have the edge, whereas if UNI can force the game into a battle between halfcourt execution on both ends, they should come out on top.  Should be fascinating.  The majority of the field actually likes UNI in the mild upset, as only Dave, Doogan, Gersh, Mac, and RSmith have Illinois St.  Dave and RSmith both have ISU actually going to the finals – Dave has them winning it all.  Surprisingly, only KA has UNI reaching the finals.

The Sun Belt switched.  The MAC adapted after decades of history.  Even the mighty SEC made the change.  So, why can’t the SoCon figure out that the way they organize their tournament is not only unfair, but counterproductive to the advancement of the conference.  It’s fine to have unbalanced schedules (check that, it sucks, but it’s at least acceptable as a necessary evil to 12+- team leagues), but to further the gross injustice by granting each division two byes in the conference tournament is just dumb.  There is absolutely no reason why a 19-win Wofford team – clearly no worse than the third-best team in the league, probably second – would have to play a first-round game (which they were a tiebreaker away from having to do), while 12-18 UNC-Greensboro and 14-15 Elon get byes.  Just hold firm to the idea of divisional play?  While it may not seem to be a big deal, I really think that it is because the result is one side of the bracket is, inevitably, overloaded, which could pave the way for a middling team in your conference to get a break or two and win the tournament.  Now, instead of a Davidson or Wofford grabbing a seed somewhere in the 11-14 range, and having a real shot to win a game or two in the tournament and really bring national attention to your little conference, you’ve got UNC-Greensboro or Samford playing in the First Four, or, at best, 15- or 16-seed cannon fodder for a Final Four favorite.  Get me the SoCon commissioner on the phone…

Championship Picks
16 for #1 Davidson
1 for #2 UNC-Greensboro (Scoot)
1 for #3 Wofford (Mac)
1 for #4 Elon (KA)

Biggest Upsets
R1 – #12 Chattanooga (Bry, Doogan, Gersh, Gross, J, KA, Lil Lohse)
QF – #12 Chattanooga  (Bry, Doogan, Gross, J, KA)
SF – #7 College of Charkeston (Doogan, RDoc, Teddy)

Previous CTC Champions
2011 – Gross
2010 – Stri
2009 – Lynch
2008 – Ina*

#3S Georgia-Southern vs. #6N Chattanooga
The whole “injustice” of the divisional system wouldn’t seem so bad if the Northern Division wasn’t so goddam disappointing this year.  And, leading that charge are the Moccassins of Chattanooga.  They were awful.  Georgia-Southern was the big surprise of the conference this year, coming from nowhere to win 12 games (with a Southern Division schedule) and nearly earn a bye.  But, now they just have to settle for an opening round game with Chattanooga and then, possibly, a quarterfinal against Elon.  This is a huge upset pick for a slew of people (Bry, Doogan, Gersh, Gross, J, KA, Lil Lohse).  Bry, Doogan, Gross, and J have them reaching the semis.

#3N Samford vs. #6S The Citadel
Samford was dead and buried for a while there, before running off a really impressive stretch of games, including a shocking win over Davidson on January 28th.  The Citadel was bad pretty much all year, but did grab back-to-back wins two weeks ago to keep their record respectable.  Bry, Gersh, and Primm took The Citadel here in an upset.  Lil Lohse has WCU in the semis.

#4S College of Charleston vs. #5N Appalachian St.
If Chattanooga is tops on the list of utter disappoinments in the Northern Division, then App State has to be a very close #2.  The Mountaineers and Mocs should have battled all year for top spot in this division and yet, they finished last and second-to-last in this upside-down divisions.  College of Charleston is a fascinating case.  I’m not sure what happened to them, to be honest.  They actually looked like a potential at-large team in the non-conference and beginning of conference play and then, just like that, they get pummeled by Davidson and the wheels fell off.  The limped in in a disappointing 4th place, but at least, by not finishing 3rd, they are on the opposite side of the bracket as Davidson, and, as the team with clearly the second-best talent in the league, they can save their season with one good week.  This is yet another crazy game for CTC implications.  4 people (Dave, Gersh, KA, RSmith) have App St. in the upset, with Gersh and Dave picking them to make the semis.  As for CofC, they are getting a lot of love.  9 people have them beating Greensboro in the quarters (Alexi, Bry, Doogan, Gross, J, Lohse, Lynch, RDoc, Teddy).  5 more (Doogan, Lohse, Lynch, RDoc, Teddy) have them reaching the finals.

#4N W. Carolina vs. #5S Furman
The Furman Paladins probably would have won the Northern Division, but they finished 5th in the South.  W. Carolina was left for dead before reeling off four straight wins to end the season and gain some momentum heading into the tournament.  The majority of the field has Furman in a mild upset.  Only KA, RSmith, Stri, and Scoot have WCU.

This year’s MAAC tournament should be another fantastic tournament for a real up-and-coming league.  There is one team (Iona) with a national presence and an actual at-large case to be made if they don’t win this tournament.  There is another team (Loyola) that was under the radar all year, until they beat Iona on a Friday night in early February, only to have a meltdown right after, losing three straight, including an embarrassing 18-point loss to lowly Marist.  Another team (Manhattan) was a program nearly left for dead until they brought in a new coach, who changed everything.  And, then there is the defending regular season champs (Fairfield), who may enjoy playing the role of underdog for a change, since the role of favorite has been tough for them in recent years.

Championship Picks
10 for #1 Iona
5 for #2 Loyola (MD) (Alexi, KA, Primm, Scoot, Teddy)
2 for #3 Manhattan (Mac, RDoc)
1 for #4 Fairfield (Dave)

Biggest Upsets
R1 – #10 Canisius (KA, Teddy)
QF – #8 Marist (KA)
SF – #6 Siena (Doogan, Lynch)

Previous CTC Champions
2011 – Primm
2010 – Bry*
2009 – Bry
2008 – J

#7 Niagara vs. #10 Canisius
Niagara has the talent to compete in this league and might just do so when this team gets a little experience under their belts.  For now, they can just play the sleeper role until their kids “grow up.”  Canisius is kinda terrible.  The winner will get the #2-seeded Loyola Greyhounds.  KA and Teddy went for the upset points here.  Neither has them beating Loyola.  Bry, J, and RDoc all have Niagara upsetting Loyola in the quarters, so they need them to win here first.

#8 Marist vs #9 St. Peter’s
Marist rose up and beat some people this year – which is an upgrade – but they’re not really all that good.  On the other side of this one is St. Peter’s.  This was an important year for the Peacocks program.  They caught lightning in a bottle last year and had a spirited run to the NCAA tournament.  Now, they were supposed to use that momentum to catapult the program up a level or so in an emerging conference.  But, something happened on the way, and the Peacocks were downright terrible this year.  They now have one last chance to make something of this season, but it will take a near miracle.  But, never say never and that run has to start tonight against the Red Foxes.  The winner here will play #1 Iona in the quarters.  Bry, Lil Lohse, and Primm have the mild upset pick of St. Peter’s.  KA is the only one to have either of these teams beating the Gaels next round, as she took Marist to reach the semis.

In the CTC world, three days is an eternity.  Well, that is how long ago we even thought about the Horizon League, as the Opening Round was Tuesday night, which set up a fantastic quarterfinal doubleheader…and that’s here.

#3 Detroit vs. #6 Youngstown St.
The Titans didn’t look as dominant as they probably should have against a bad Loyola (IL) team, but they got the job done and now they’re here.  Youngstown St., on the other hand, soundly defeated a decent Green Bay team, setting up a pretty solid quarterfinal here for the right to face #2 Cleveland St. in the semis tomorrow.  Only two people (Stri and Teddy) have YSU winning this game in a solid upset pick, but that doesn’t mean that the other 18 of us all have Detroit.  4 people (J, KA, Lil Lohse, and Lynch) have already lost this game, having picked Green Bay here.  A Detroit win here is biggest for Dave, Gross, and Lohse, who all have the Titans cutting down the nets in the Horizon.  Mac, Scoot, and Waters would all like to see it too, as they have Detroit reaching the finals.

#4 UW-Milwaukee vs. #5 Butler
As amazing as the four MVC quarterfinals are today, I think that this game here is the game of the day anywhere in the country.  It should be a war.  Milwaukee took care of business against an overmatched UIC team, while Butler exploded in the second half to actually blow out Wright St. in the Opening Round.  Now, the two meet on Valpo’s home floor for the right to face the host team in the semis.  Doogan has already lost this game with Wright St., but the rest of the field is pretty split on this one.  11 people took UW-Mil, while 8 took Butler (Alexi, Bry, KA, Lohse, Primm, RSmith, Stri, and Waters), so as good of a game as this is, it is also a pretty important one as far as the CTC goes.

The VMI Effect.”  VMI has catapulted Lohse to the top of the standings on back-to-back days and gives him the overall lead, outright.  J, also riding the VMI Effect, finishes 2nd on the day and sits 3rd overall.  Primm, though relinquishing the overall lead, stays strong.  Bry and RDoc put in nice days and start moving up.  Rikey, the defending champ, is hovering, as is the always dangerous Lil Lohse.  And, after a slow start (that wasn’t accounted for until her picks came in today), KA has a really nice Day Four to climb out of the basement.  Another late filer, Stri, is off to a pretty solid start.  It is another rough day for Waters, as he loses his second straight day and is in the cellar.  But, for reference, the leader right now hasn’t even cracked 200 points.  The winner last year had over 2,500.  So, to say “it’s early,” would be a gross understatement.

DAY FOUR SCORES (days won):

1. Lohse (2) – 103
2. J – 97
3. Primm – 94
4. Bry – 88
5. RDoc – 86
6. Lil Lohse – 82
7. Rikey (1) – 82
8. Scoot – 82
9. Stri (1) – 82
10. KA – 80
11. Mac – 79
12. Gersh – 76
13. Dave – 75
14. Alexi – 68
15. Lynch – 63
16. RSmith – 63
17. Doogan -62
18. Teddy – 62
19. Gross – 60
20. Waters – 59

OVERALL STANDINGS:

1. Lohse – 195
2. Primm – 186.5
3. J – 182.5
4. Stri – 173.5
5. Lil Lohse – 164.5
6. Rikey – 161.5
7. Dave – 160
8. RDoc – 153.5
9. Bry – 151
10. Mac – 151
11. Doogan – 149.5
12. Scoot – 149.5
13. Alexi – 144.5
14. Gersh – 143.5
15. Teddy – 140
16. Lynch – 135
17. KA – 129.5
18. Gross – 126.5
19. RSmith – 123
20. Waters – 116