The Other Games: Handicapping the Three Non-Eagles Games This Weekend

How great are the NFL playoffs?  Fantastic!  Actually, I was thinking of what my favorite sports weekends of the year are (sounds like a nice topic for Tuesday’s Top Twelve), and I am not exactly sure where this one falls, but it could be as high as #3.  For me, number 1 is obviously the first two round of the NCAA Tournament, and #2 is next weekend with the Divisional Round, but after those two there are a handul (including this one) that are in the mix.  Either way, this is great.  And, with an Eagles game (as the nightcap), it makes it that much more intriguing (and nerve-racking).  Anyway, here are a couple observations about the “other 3” games.

• I am not a proponent of changing the current playoff system, no matter what happened in the NFC Worst this year.  I would be strongly opposed to not allowing a division-winner in the playoffs.  Seattle won their division, so they deserve to be a higher seed than the Saints or the Packers or the Giants or the Bucs, who all did not win their divisions.
• However, I would only be slightly opposed to switching up the home teams.  In fact, it is interesting to note that, an argument could be made that ALL FOUR games this weekend are being played in the wrong city.  The Saints, Ravens, and Jets all have better records than their division-winning opponents, and the Packers, with the same record as the Eagles, won their one head-to-head matchup.
• The Eagles-Packers game, while being the most intriguing (and most interesting to this website) may also be the most important game of the weekend for next weekend’s matchups.  The Saints are a dome team that relies on a lot of team speed and plays much better indoors than out.  Assuming they are able to beat a bad Seattle team today, they will play in one of two vastly different situations, all depending on the result of the Eagles game.  If the Birds beat the Packers, the Saints get to play indoors against familiar foe Atlanta.  But, if the Packers win, the defending champs will have to take their speed-oriented passing offense to a bad turf on a, most likely, cold, brisk, windy day in Chicago.

New Orleans at Seattle
It is interesting to listen to public opinion about games like this swing so strongly back and forth.  At first, everyone was saying that this won’t even be a game.  Then, people starting trying to talk themselves into thinking that the Seahawks have a chance here.  “The 12th man is so good in Seattle.”  “The Saints have been struggling recently.”  “Chris Ivory and Malcolm Jenkins are big losses for New Orleans.”  “Hasselbeck is back and he is a very experienced quarterback.”  Yes, all of those thing are true.  Do you know what else is true?  The Seahawks stink.  Like, honestly, this isn’t just a 7-9 team…this is a BAD 7-9 team.  They went 7-9 against a really bad schedule.  They lost all nine games by AT LEAST 15 points.  They’ve been outscored by almost 100 points this year.  They have one of the worst offenses and one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  If they had lost to St. Louis on Sunday night (a close win at home against another bad team), they would have had the #6 pick in the draft.  NUMBER SIX!  They stink.  My Pick:  New Orleans 31 – Seattle 10

Jets at Colts
This is a  pretty juicy primetime matchup on Saturday night.  I am not really all that sold on the Jets D this year, but I think the Colts are completely banged up.  It is so hard to pick against Peyton Manning, but it it not hard to pick for any Ryan.  I think the Colts are probably just too banged up.  Let us not forget that the Jets had a tough schedule and won 11 games.  The Colts, on the other hand, were in a surprisingly disappointing division, and had to fight and claw to 10 wins.  Plus, I don’t think this Jets team is intimidated by anyone.  I am not a Sanchez fan, but I like the Jets to win tonight.  My Pick:  N.Y.Jets 20 – Indianapolis 17

Ravens at Chiefs
No matter what happens on Sunday, Chiefs fans have to be really happy with their team’s 2010 season.  To come back from back-to-back top 5 draft spots to win a pretty decent AFC West and get a home playoff game is quite an accomplishment.  This might be tough for the Ravens to swallow, though, as they finished 12-4 and have to settle for a road playoff game in a brutally tough place to win.  And, let us take a quick look at the Ravens season and see how close they were to putting themselves in a much different position.  They won twelve games, including the Jets and Steelers on the road and the Saints at home.  And, here were their four losses:

• Week 2:  15-10 at Cincinnati –> This was before the Bengals fell apart, and the Ravens led this game with less than 5 minutes to go
• Week 6:  23-20 (OT) at New England –> The Ravens had a 10-point lead late in the 4th quarter, before Tom Brady led a wild comeback to send it to OT.
• Week 10:  26-21 at Atlanta –> On the road on a Thursday night, the Ravens led 21-20 with 20 seconds left, when Matt Ryan hit Roddy White on a 33-yard touchdown pass, capping a drive that included a couple third down conversions and a fourth-down conversion.
• Week 13:  13-10 vs Pittsburgh –> The Ravens had the ball and a 4-point lead, trying to run out the clock, when Troy Polamalu forced a fumble, recovered the fumble, and Roethlisberger threw a last-minute touchdown pass for the win.

Let’s recap:  All four losses were 5 points or less.  In all four losses, the Ravens led with less than 5 minutes to go.  In three of them, they led in the FINAL MINUTE.  Three of the losses were to playoff teams, including one each to the top two seeds in the AFC.  Three of the losses were on the road, including one on a Thursday night in Atlanta.  In other words, it is not a stretch to say that this team was a play or two away from the #1 seed in the AFC.  Plus, they have three road playoff wins in the past two years.  My Pick:  Baltimore 20 – Kansas City 10.