2011 BSB NFL Playoff Challenge Preview

In the second edition of the BSB NFL Playoff Challenge, we have 11 participants.  The following are the official entries.  In addition to the actual picks, I listed the teams to which the person gave the most points of any of the competitors (“most trust in”) and those to which they gave the least (“least trust in”).  In other words, any team on a competitor’s “most trusted” list means that no one has that team listed higher on their list.  I also calculated each competitor’s best possible total score at the end and their best possible score for this round.  And, finally, I looked at what the biggest “swing game” of the week would be for each person, which I just defined as the game with the biggest differential between the points given to the teams.  (EDIT:  I actually mixed up Scott’s picks for the Saints and Seahawks, so this post has been edited since it first went up.  The edit actually cost Scott a good amount, so thanks to him for pointing it out to me.)

BRY:
12-Pit, 11-Phi, 10-Atl, 9-NO, 8-Bal, 7-GB, 6-NE, 5-NYJ, 4-Ind, 3-KC, 2-Sea, 1-Chi

Most Trust In:  Pit, Sea
Least Trust In:  Chi, NE

Best Possible Score:  156
Best Wild Card Round:  33
Worst Wild Card Round:  16

Biggest Swing Game:  New Orleans (9) – Seattle (2)

Thoughts:  Well, Bry has gone for a huge risk-reward play here.  He has Pittsburgh at 12, and no one else has them any higher than 10.  If the Steelers win the Super Bowls, he might be hard to beat.  He also is real low on the Pats, Bears, and Colts, so if either of those teams make any noise, he could be in some trouble, no matter what else happens.  This week, Bry has hedged a little on the Phi-GB game, but is strong on Baltimore; he also is the only one in the entire competition that didn’t have Seattle at 1.

DOOGAN:
12-NE, 11-NO, 10-Atl, 9-Bal, 8-Pit, 7-GB, 6-Ind, 5-Phi, 4-NYJ, 3-Chi, 2-KC, 1-Sea

Most Trust In:  NE, NO
Least Trust In:  Sea, KC, Phi

Best Possible Score:  157
Best Wild Card Round:  33
Worst Possible Wild Card Round:  12

Biggest Swing Game:  New Orleans (11) – Seattle (1)

Thoughts:  Doogan, maybe a reverse-jinx attempt, has the least faith of everyone in the Birds, even though this competition does have a fair number of non-Eagles fans.  Two wild card teams could make or break Doogan – New Orleans and Baltimore – so he is hoping that they both survive this weekend.

Alexi:
12-Atl, 11-Bal, 10-NO, 9-GB, 8-Pit, 7-Ind, 6-NE, 5-Phi, 4-Chi, 3-NYJ, 2-KC, 1-Sea

Most Trust In:  Atl, Bal
Least Trust In:  Sea, KC, Phi, NE

Best Possible Score:  160
Best Wild Card Round:  37
Worst Wild Card Round:  11

Biggest Swing Game:  Baltimore (11) – Kansas City (2); New Orleans (10) – Seattle (1)

Thoughts:  Alexi, like Bry, is banking on New England going out early.  He has put a ton of faith in his hometown Ravens, but he also made the savvy pick of a 12 for Atlanta (the only one to put the NFC’s top seed that high).  Other than New England, Alexi is also very low on Philly, so he could gain a lot if they go out this weekend.

Scott:
12-NE, 11-Atl, 10-Pit, 9-Phi, 8-Ind, 7-NO, 6-Bal, 5-Chi, 4-NYJ, 3-GB, 2-KC, 1-Sea

Most Trust In:  NE
Least Trust In:  Sea, KC

Best Possible Score:  154
Best Wild Card Round:  30
Worst Wild Card Round:  10

Biggest Swing Game:  Philadelphia (9) – Green Bay (3); New Orleans (7) – Seattle (1)

Thoughts:  Scott has put his faith in the two top seeds, so he is rooting for chalk.  He is pretty low on the popular New Orleans and Green Bay picks, so he would be okay with the Seahawks and Eagles winning the NFC Wild Card games.

The Cuz:
12-NE, 11-Phi, 10-NO, 9-Pit, 8-Bal, 7-Atl, 6-Chi, 5-GB, 4-Ind, 3-NYJ, 2-KC, 1-Sea

Most Trust In:  NE
Least Trust In:  Sea, KC, Atl

Best Possible Score:  157
Best Wild Card Round:  33
Worst Wild Card Round:  11

Biggest Swing Game:  New Orleans (10) – Seattle (1)

Thoughts:  The Cuz, trying to defend his title, has put a lot of faith in a couple NFC wild cards – Philly and New Orleans.  Accordingly, The Cuz has given very small number to Atlanta and Indy, so he is hoping for a Divisional Round upset in the NFC and a Wild Card upset in the AFC.  He has a lot at stake in Baltimore beating KC this weekend.

J:
12-NE, 11-NO, 10-Pit, 9-Bal, 8-Phi, 7-Atl, 6-Chi, 5-Ind, 4-NYJ, 3-GB, 2-KC, 1-Sea

Most Trust In:  NE, NO
Least Trust In:  Sea, KC, Atl

Best Possible Score:  156
Best Wild Card Round:  33
Worst Wild Card Round:  10

Biggest Swing Game:  New Orleans (11) – Seattle (1)

Thoughts:  J, like The Cuz, is down on Atlanta, but is is actually real high (comparatively) on the other NFC team with the bye – the Bears.  High on Chicago, if the Monsters of the Midway (or Saints) make a run to the Super Bowl, J could follow them to the challenge title here.

Rob Smith:
12-Phi, 11-NE, 10-GB, 9-NO, 8-Atl, 7-NYJ, 6-Pit, 5-Bal, 4-Ind, 3-KC, 2-Chi, 1-Sea

Most Trust In:  Phi
Least Trust In:  Sea

Best Possible Score:  154
Best Wild Card Round:  33
Worst Wild Card Round:  17

Biggest Swing Game:  New Orleans (9) – Seattle (1)

Thoughts:  Rob Smith is going to lose a big number this weekend, as he has 12 on the Eagles and 10 on the Packers.  But, it the winner of that game can make a run, his entry could be real tough to beat.  He also has a 9 on New Orleans and an 8 on Atlanta, so he has a lot at stake in Chicago losing in the NFC.  His AFC teams are relatively low, especially Indy, so he needs New England to come out of that conference.

Teddy:
12-NE, 11-GB, 10-Atl, 9-Bal, 8-Phi, 7-Pit, 6-NO, 5-Ind, 4-NYJ, 3-Chi, 2-KC, 1-Sea

Most Trust In:  NE, GB
Least Trust In:  Sea, KC

Best Possible Score:  155
Best Wild Card Round:  33
Worst Wild Card Round:  12

Biggest Swing Game:  New Orleans (6) – Seattle (1)

Thoughts:  Teddy has a lot of faith in the Packers ability to win on the road, as he has them at 11.  His high number on his hometown Ravens could also go a long way to a Teddy title here.  Though his score would obviously be higher with a Saints win this weekend, he is probably rooting for Seattle because he has the Saints at a very low number, compared to everyone else.

Alex:
12-KC, 11-Atl, 10-NYJ, 9-Phi, 8-NE, 7-NO, 6-Chi, 5-Pit, 4-Ind, 3-Bal, 2-GB, 1-Sea

Most Trust In:  KC, NYJ
Least Trust In:  Sea, GB, Pit

Best Possible Score:  162
Best Wild Card Round:  38
Worst Wild Card Round:  10

Biggest Swing Game:  Kansas City (12) – Baltimore (3)

Thoughts:  With the most polarizing entry, Alex is either going to run away with this championship or fall rather short.  A very high-risk, high-reward entry, Alex is going big on the Chiefs and Jets in the AFC.  In fact, his Chiefs entry is ranked 9 spots higher than anyone else in the challenge, so even one Chiefs win could put him in good shape, and two Chiefs wins might clinch the whole thing.  But, on the flip-side, if the Ravens go in there and win, he could be in some trouble.  He also has good numbers on Atlanta and Chicago.  Alex is very low, comparatively, on Green Bay and Pittsburgh, too, so losses by those teams could really help him.

Matt:
12-Ind, 11-GB, 10-NE, 9-Atl, 8-NO, 7-Pit, 6-Bal, 5-Phi, 4-Chi, 3-KC, 2-NYJ, 1-Sea

Most Trust In:  Ind, GB
Least Trust In:  Sea, NYJ, Phi

Best Possible Score:  160
Best Wild Card Round:  37
Worst Wild Card Round:  11

Biggest Swing Game: Indianapolis (12) – N.Y. Jets (2)

Thoughts:  Matt is all-in on the Indianapolis Colts.  Any run by the Colts will make this entry tough to beat, but if they go down to the Jets on Saturday night, he could be in some trouble.  He can fall back on a big number on Green Bay in the NFC, as he has them at 11.  If both the Colts and Packers lose this weekend, Matt’s challenge may be over.

Waters:
12-NE, 11-Atl, 10-NO, 9-Phi, 8-Pit, 7-Chi, 6-GB, 5-NYJ, 4-KC, 3-Ind, 2-Bal, 1-Sea

Most Trust In:  NE, Chi
Least Trust In:  Sea, Bal, Ind

Best Possible Score:  151
Best Wild Card Round:  28
Worst Wild Card Round:  12

Biggest Swing Game:  New Orleans (10) – Seattle (1)

Thoughts:  Waters has a lot of points in the teams with byes, so he probably cannot get himself in much trouble this weekend.  But, when we get to next weekend, he is almost assuredly going to be in the mix because of his faith in the #1 seeds.  Scott is the only other entry to give 12 and 11 to the top seeds, so if homefield holds, it might come down to this week’s Seattle-New Orleans game to crown the winner, as Waters is big on New Orleans, and Scott is in on Seattle.