Eagles – Packers: Wild Card Preview

Well, here we go.  It is finally here.  The Playoffs.  All year has been working towards this day, and now it’s here.  Let us get right to a couple of thoughts on the individual unit matchups that we will see today.

Eagles on Offense:  The Line of Scrimmage
I started with this because I think that this matchup has the most potential to win or lose the game for the Birds.  The Packers defense is fantastic, and it, like most great defenses, is predicated on putting pressure on the quarterback.  The problem – for the Eagles – is that they with the more athletic, speedy guys that are prevalent in 3-4 defenses.  The Birds absolutely have to pick up the blitzes from guys like Cla Matthews (who had a MONSTER game against the Birds in Game 1) and Desmond Bishop out of the linebacking corps, and they cannot let B.J. Raji wreak havoc on the line.  The Packers also got some good news when Cullen Jenkins was declared able to play this morning.  Jenkins has missed four weeks with injury, but will bring his 7 sacks to the game today.  But, the big thing that we have to watch for in the game today is the Packers stealing a page from the Giants and, subsequently, the Vikings gameplans – sending fast, athletic guys at Vick.  The Giants did it successfully with Antrelle Rolle, and the Vikings took it to another level with Antoine Winfield.  Unfortunately, for the Eagles, the Packers might have the BEST blitzing d-back in the NFL in Charles Woodson.  This whole game might come down to the ability of Shady McCoy and company to pick up the blitz of Woodson, at least enough for Vick to dump it off or escape for scrambles.  If we see Packers #21 in the Eagles backfield, it might mean one-and-done for the second straight year.  Good news on the injury front is that Todd Herremans will play.  He has maybe been the most important lineman for the Eagles this year.  The bad news is that Max Jean-Gilles is a gametime decision.

Eagles of Offense:  The Secondary
I ranked all 12 playoff “weapons” on Wednesday and actually put the Eagles at #1.  It has been a long road from the days of Charles Johnson and Torrance Small, but we finally have a receiving corps that is not only dangerous, but terrifying for opposing defenses.  This is where I think the Eagles can excel and win this game – not because the Packers are weak, by any means, in the secondary, but because I think this group of receivers is just that good.  Unfortunately, the Packers have cut ties with our old friend Al Harris, so we will not be handed a 15-yard personal foul and a 35-yard pass interference today, but I do think that DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin can produce the big plays that we have grown accustomed to seeing all year.  I also think that if Woodson and Matthews are going to be highly responsible for containing Michael Vick, then LeSean McCoy could be a huge threat out of the passing game.  And, one other thing to look for:  though he had a really slow start to the season, Brent Celek has come on lately.  Do not forget that he led this team in receptions just a year ago.  This is very intertwined with the ability to protect, but if the Eagles think that they can hold down the fort with just their five linemen, then Celek could be a real weapon down the seam.

Packers on Offense:  The Line of Scrimmage
The one real vulnerability of the Packers is their offensive line.  Last year, they were dreadful, and this year, they are competent, but barely.  They added Brian Bulaga with their first-round draft pick, and he has been good – not great, but good.  And, another big loss for this team is Ryan Grant, who not only was he a very good runner, he was an excellent pass blocker in the backfield.  Brandon Jackson is not as good at picking up the blitz.  We are going to miss Brandon Graham today (and the rest of the year), but the Birds have plenty of talent leftover on that line.  Trent Cole and Juqua Parker should abuse the Packers tackles and get to Rodgers in the backfield.  I think that this is where the Birds can really give the explosive Packers offense some trouble–and they are going to have to because I am not sure this next matchup is all that encouraging.

Packers on Offense:  The Secondary
Now, we said that the Eagles offensive line versus the Packers rush attack might be the difference in this game…well, this matchup is right behind in importance, and could certainly be what we are talking about if the Birds season is to end today.  We all know about the struggles of Dmitri Patterson, and it should be interesting to see (a) if Patterson even starts today, and (b) who, on the Packers, he ends up spending most of his time covering.  If he is on Greg Jennings, then he will need to either play the game of his life or get a lot of help because Jennings is that good.  On the other side, Asante Samuel is one of the best on the planet, but there is a problem.  The Packers offense is predicated on the one-step drop out of the shotgun and the quick, West Coast passing scheme.  The best defense for this is the bump-and-run, physical-type defense, but Asante Samuel has made a living of playing off receivers and taking chances to get picks.  With Rodgers arm strength and quick passing scheme, that gambling style may not work that well.  That being said, Samuel is always able to change the game with one big play.  As much of a loss as Stewart Bradley and Brandon Graham are, the Nate Allen loss may be the most significant.  He was playing a great free safety in this his rookie season, and now we are left with 7th-round pick, Kurt Coleman.  Fortunately, Quintin Mikell has had a terrific season at strong safety.  One piece of good news for the Birds is that the Packers have not found anyone close to a replacement for injured tight end Jermichael Finley, who is a HUGE loss for the Packers offense.  All in all, the Birds have to stop these great Packer receivers if there are to pull this out.

Special Teams
The Eagles, with DeSean Jackson returning and David Akers in placekicking, are better.  If it is a close game (likely), where field position is essential (not as likely with the explosive offenses), the Eagles have the advantage.  Also, playing at home can often really help the special teams play, be it the kicking game or the emotion with which you have to play on kick coverages.

The Pick
After all of this, I can definitely see why the prevailing opinion if that the Packers are going to win this game.  However, I am going with the Birds for several reasons:

1. As Doogan aptly pointed out, this Packers love may be giving our Birds a real chip on their shoulder.
2. The de facto “bye” week may be huge for this team, and in particular, this quarterback.  In fact, Andy Reid did not allow Vick in practice all week last week with direct instructions to study the Packers.  He rolled the dice that the Packers would be the opponent, and he wanted Vick as prepared as possible.  He thought that any Dallas gameplanning would interfere with that preparation.  Plus, Vick says he is now totally healthy, and we all know just how good he can be when he is healthy.
3. At this time of year, the homefield advantage is gigantic.
4. Andy Reid is 7-1 in playoff opening games; Mike McCarthy is 1-1. 
5. Michael Vick has two playoff wins; Aaron Rodgers has none.

My Pick:  Eagles 24 – Packers 21

Random Notes

• For more than a month now, I have strongly believed that Marty Mornhinweg would be the next Cleveland Browns head coach.  But, now, it looks like Ray Sherman is the favorite for the job, which I think is really positive for the Birds because Mornhinweg is a fantastic coordinator.
• Nnamdi Asomugha has been declared an unrestricted free agent.  Now, I am sure that there are 31 fanbases now drooling of thinking of him in their team’s colors, but let us think for a second of how great it would be if the Eagles landed Nnamdi.  They have landed two monster free agents in the past couple of years, and they have plenty of room under the salary cap – even with franchising Vick and giving DeSean Jackson a much-deserved contract extension – so there’s at least a chance.  Wow!
• I heard a report that the Eagles will accept no less that TWO first-round picks in a trade for Kevin Kolb.  I like that because (a) I could see a team caving and giving that up, which would be quite a haul, or (b) we will keep Kolb as a nice security blanket for Vick.