Usually the Super Bowl excited me for the commercials first and the game a distant second. But, this year is all about the game. This one is going to be fantastic! We have two incredible teams who have a great divergence in strengths, making for a fascinating matchup. So, a couple random thoughts leading up to what should be, beneath all the ridiculous pageantry of this day, strictly a great football game.
Not to Toot My Own Horn, But…
It is very rare that I will talk about any great personal “predictions” on this site (not by choice or humility–by a lack of any good predictions), but this one I have to bring up. On September 11, 2010 – before Week One – I wrote a post laying out my playoff predictions for the upcoming season. And, my Super Bowl prediction was Green Bay over Pittsburgh. What does this mean? Absolutely nothing. In fact, when I realized this and told my wife that I nailed this Super Bowl prediction more than 4 months ago, she cooly responded with “If you’re so smart, why didn’t you put money on it?” Good point…I’ve got nothing in response.
My Pick Now
In that preview section, I predicted a blowout Green Bay win, 31-7, with Aaron Rodgers having a big day and Roethlisberger having a karmically terrible day (mostly because I can’t stand the stories of that night in Georgia). However, I am going to completely ruin my “great pick” here by flip-flopping in the 11th hour. I really like the Steelers tonight. Maybe not by a lot, but I think the Steelers are just a better team. Most of why will be expressed in the following post, but put me down for Pittsburgh 24 – Green Bay 20.
Aaron Rodgers – Am I Missing Something?
Look, I think Aaron Rodgers is great. Before the season started, I thought he would be league MVP and Super Bowl MVP. I think he’s going to be a top five (or better) quarterback in this league. But, let’s really look at this playoff run. If you listen to just about anyone with an opinion, you will think he has completely recreated the quarterback position by playing better than anyone ever has. Is it me or is this crazy? Am I the only one who thinks that he has been “good,” but not “great” in two of the three playoff games to which everyone refers. In fact, I have watched all 12 playoff quarters of Rodgers this year, and I thought he was absolutely fantastic in 7 of those quarters (4 of which were in that Atlanta game). But, in 5 of the 8 quarters not played in Atlanta, he was dowright mediocre. He was outstanding in the first half of the Eagles game, but he was not very good in the second half, including a sack-fumble and a couple of bad three-and-outs, that led them to only an underthrown Vick pass away from being eliminated in the first round. In fact, in that whole game, he only led three drives into scoring position, they just were fortunate (or good) enough to convert those three into 21 points, while the Eagles turned 6 drives into scoring position into only 16 points (2 TDs, 1 FG, 2 missed FGs, and one INT in the endzone). Then, in the Bears game, Rodgers was TERRIFIC in the first 19 minutes, going up 14-0, but was very mediocre after that, as the offense didn’t score a single point in the final 41 minutes, as they nearly blew the game to some guy named Caleb Haney. I think we might be a little fooled by the quick starts and the almost perfect game in Atlanta. But, honestly, Rodgers has definitely been good this postseason, but all in all, most of his numbers were against a questionable Atlanta defense that clearly wasn’t ready to play – the Steelers are a different animal.
The Year of the Defense
2010 in baseball was famously the “Year of the Pitcher.” Well, not so famously, the 2010 NFL season may have been the “Year of the Defense.” The 4 best defenses were the final four teams alive in the NFL, with the best two defenses playing on Super Bowl Sunday. In fact, with the exception of the strange Seattle win over New Orleans, I would argue that the better defense has won all 10 playoff games this year. And, that is another reason why I think the Steelers will win – they are the only team in the NFL with a better defense than Green Bay. With all due respect to Stewart Bradley (huh?), the argument can be made that the FOUR best defensive players in the world will be playing today, in the 2008 Defensive Player of the Year (James Harrison), the 2009 Defensive POY (Charles Woodson), and the top 2 for this year’s Defensive POY (Troy Polamalu and Cla Matthews).
The Steelers D
This defense is incredible. The Pack got a great game from James Starks against the Birds. Do not expect that today, even though we will see a lot of attempts. Mike McCarthy (surprisingly, since he is from the same school as Coach Reid), believes in rushing attempts regardless of the success. So, expect a combined 25 carries for 48 yards from Starks and Brandon Jackson tonight. I do not expect much more, so it is all on Rodgers.
Packers D
This defense is also fantastic and has not gotten as much credit as they deserve because of Rodgers. But, Matthews and Woodson are absolute studs. They will attack Ben on every play. B.J. Raji might be the most important player on this side of the ball, and he gets to attack a backup center (more on this later). Plus, the Packers do have better corners, so they are freer to bring the heat with no problem. Tramon Williams is a complete stud and we all know everything about Woodson.
Rashard Mendenhall
On the other side, the Steelers have a running back in whom I do trust. Mendenhall (at least for the first half) was by far the best player on the field against the Jets in the AFC Championship Game. The Jets are one of the best tackling defenses in the NFL, and Mendenhall shredded them, breaking tackles left and right. This O-line for the Steelers is questionable, but Mendenhall has the ability to create yards without big holes. He is something that the Packers just do not have.
Doug Legursky
A lot has been said about the loss of Maurkice Pouncey, the Steelers rookie Pro Bowl center. And, honestly, this is a HUGE loss. However, it might not be quite as big as it may initially appear. Yes, there were snap issues (especially in pressure situations – like at the goal line) last week when Legursky came in to replace Pouncey. But, this is much different. Legursky came in to replace Pouncey in the AFC Championship Game against a ferocious defense. He was so green and worried about blocking schemes, having only taken mental reps all week. But, with Pouncey out, Legursky has now taken the physical reps with the first team for two weeks. Snap issues probably won’t be a problem. What might be a problem, however, is recognition of blitz schemes (a 3-4 is very difficult to read and very dependent upon the center) and the on the second level. The difference between Legursky and Pouncey may not be recognizable to the fan that knows nothing about the o-line (including Yours Truly), but from what I have heard the big difference between the two is that Pouncey is a freak athlete. So, the difference will probably be in the Mendenhall runs that go for 4 yards behind Legursky that may have been sprung for 13 (or more) with Pouncey, who can get into the second level and lay out a LB or DB.
The Most Interesting X-O Facet of this Game – Will the Packers Spread the Steelers Out?
The Green Bay offensive coaching staff has a very interesting dilemma here. Do they throw out 4- or 5-receiver sets in an attempt to exploit mismatches by getting guys like Greg Jennings or Jordy Nelson on linebackers? Or, do they throw in a lot of max protection packages to try and keep their QB upright? It really is a fascinating dilemma and a decision that I am glad I do not have to make. The Steelers are so relentless and so aggressive that you want to protect Rodgers (who has been concussed twice – at least – this year). Also, Rodgers looks a lot different after big hits (like the Peppers hit in Chicago). But, if you can get Jennings in the slot on a LB, you might have an 80-yard touchdown. Personally, I would probably side to max protect early and see if we can move the ball with 2 receivers on short slants and if not, then roll the dice and throw Jordy Nelson and James Jones on the field.
Heath Miller
The “experts” all say that the Packers biggest weakness on defense is how they handle the tight end, so Heath Miller might play a huge role in this game. In fact, Vegas is rooting against that, as they seemed to set a pretty bad line on Heath Miller here. They had a prop bet on total receiving yards for Miller that opened at 21.5. Over the two weeks of betting, apparently there was HEAVY money on the over and the line has nearly doubled to 42.5 today.
The Packers Team Photo
First of all, I hate this story. Who cares? They fixed it and it is over. However, it is telling, and what it shows is the difference between a team that has been there (the Steelers) and a team that has not (the Packers). Mike Tomlin and company would know exactly how to deal with this, while the Packers seemed “too focused on being focused,” if that makes sense. Experience counts and coaching…give me the Steelers – on both fronts.
Great Super Bowl
No matter what happens, I think we are in for a great Super Bowl. There are two cities that absolutely LIVE AND DIE with their football teams. The residents of Green Bay actually own the team. These are two cities in the middle of the rust belt and hit hard by the economic downturn. As annoying as the bandwagon Steelers fans are, the true fans are maybe the best in the entire NFL. And the Packers fans are right there with them. There are two FANTASTIC teams, and this going to be a classic.
