Conference Season Preview, Part Three: The Cinderellas

Okay, so we’ve previewed the top half of the country in college hoops, now let’s get down to the other half.  The next 8 conferences are more of the third tier, in that they are never looking at multiple NCAA tournament bids, but the top couple of teams in each league could present problems to some of the best teams in the country on a single given night – oh, say, around mid-March…

THE WAC

The Midnight Snack in the WAC
Not sure what this title means, but for anyone around my age that grew up a college basketball fan, I’m guessing the first thing you think of when anyone mentions the WAC is the old ESPN feature, “Midnight Snack in the WAC,” where one day a week they would play a WAC game after the 11:00pm SportsCenter.  Okay, maybe I’m the only one who remembers it, but whatever.

This year’s WAC season is probably going to be either a two- or three-team race between the usual suspects.  Nevada (9-3, 110 RPI), who hasn’t exactly been churning out NBA talent recently like they have in the past with Kirk Snyder, Nick Fazekas, Ramon Sessions, or JaVale McGee, but they have stayed relevant enough to compete for the WAC title every year or so.  And, this year, they were the preseason pick to win the conference and have looked decent in the non-conference, with their only 3 losses coming to decent teams (Missouri State, UNLV, and BYU).  They have also been playing their best ball as of late, including two wins over Pac-12 foes in Washington and Arizona State. 

New Mexico State (8-4, 77) is probably the biggest threat to unseat the Wolfpack.  The Aggies have played a pretty tough schedule so far and have managed an 8-4 record, but they don’t really have a signature win to their names, as cross-state rival New Mexico is probably their best W.

Utah State (8-5, 159) began the season with a bang – a 69-62 win over BYU, and it looked like they might be the team to beat in the WAC.  But, they have not been the same team away from home (1-4 outside of Logan, including some bad losses).  But, at 8-1 at home, including really struggled early in the season, including a 19-point beatdown of a good Kent State team means that this team could definitely cause some problems for the two assumed favorites in the WAC this year.

There is not much meat in the rest of the conference, though Idaho (7-6, 230) has been a pleasant surprise so far.  Hawaii (4-5, 261) was actually picked to finish ahead of Utah State this year (3rd place), and they did just beat Xavier over the holiday, but the Rainbow Warriors have some shaky losses so far, as well.

OVERALL:  While USU has absolutely dominated this conference in the past couple of years, they lost a ton to graduation and find themselves the underdogs this year.  Nevada and NMSU both look solid and this could be a real battle all year for the top spot.

THE MAAC

The Team to Beat
Like many of these mid-major conferences, there seems to be a sharp distinction between the contenders and the pretenders in the MAAC this year.  However, there is a subtle difference here.  Even among the contenders, there is one clear-cut favorite that everyone else is chasing.

Iona (10-2, 18 RPI) is absolutely loaded this year.  The Gaels had a loaded roster BEFORE they found out that they were adding the starting point guard on an Elite Eight Arizona team last year in Mo-Mo Jones (who isn’t even one of their best two players).  Doogan just ranked their point guard, Scotty Machado as the #5 PG in the country, and he may even be overshadowed.  Former St. John’s transfer, Michael Glover, is averaging almost 19 points per game and is the biggest threat to Machado for conference POY.  This team is loaded.

If there is going to be a team that upsets Iona it will more than likely be either the defending conference champs, Fairfield (7-5, 63) or the up-and-coming Loyola (8-3, 103) program.  The Stags of Fairfield still have some holdovers from last year’s team that fell devastatingly short of the NCAA tournament and are hungry to give it another run.  Loyola, who has been slowly building their program, probably has the best team in school history and has shown some promise in the non-conference.

The only other team that might possibly challenge the favorites is Manhattan (8-5, 142), who, despite being picked near the bottom of the conference in the preseason, had a pretty decent non-conference and started the MAAC season with two very impressive results – a 16-point win at Rider (3-10, 262) and a 26-point beatdown of St. Peter’s (2-10, 288).

Speaking of St. Peter’s, they lead a cavalcade of bad teams at the bottom of this conference, which could submit several teams into consideration for worst in the country, including the recently highly successful program at Siena (4-7, 291), which has fallen on some really hard times.

OVERALL:  Anything short of an Iona title here this year would be a pretty hefty surprise.  If the Gaels are upset in the conference tournament, though, they will, most likely, garner at least a whisper of at-large support, as they should.

THE SUMMIT LEAGUE

Going Out with a Bang
This year looks like it is going to be the best Summit League ever.  And, that is good because they are losing one of their “Big Two” next year.

Oral Roberts (9-4, 80 RPI) has done wonders to the national attention given to the Summit League.  The Golden Eagles have been one of the best low/mid-major teams in the country for several years now, but they are leaving the Summit League to join the Southland Conference (a much weaker basketball league) next year.  The favorites to yet again win the league this year, they are going to try and go out with a bang.  ORU has been pretty successful against a typically tough schedule this year, but may have their signature win (a 22-point pounding of Xavier) discounted because it was helped by the suspensions of Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons.  Either way, ORU is the favorite again in the Summit League.

Their biggest threat to supremacy in the past couple of years has been Oakland (7-6, 106), and the Golden Grizzlies are probably in the best position to stand in their way once again.  The defending champs lost the best player in school history, but still return a bunch of talent, that has managed relatively well against a brutal non-conference schedule.  They did pick up wins over Tennessee (again) and @Valparaiso along the way.

While the Summit League is almost always between the Golden Eagles and the Golden Grizzlies (and once in a while IUPUI (6-8, 246), but they are having a really down year), this year there are a slew of other teams that have had very successful non-conference seasons and could be poised to steal the crown.  South Dakota State (9-4, 72) played really well through a tough non-conference schedule highlighted by last week’s 19-point win @Washington.  North Dakota State (8-3, 79) also played well through a decent non-conference slate.  Even UMKC (7-7, 117) looked decent in the non-conference, despite their .500 record.

The bottom of this conference is pretty bad, but the depth at the top is unprecedented this year, with 5 or 6 teams all with the potential to beat anyone on any given night.

OVERALL:  As usual, this conference will probably come down to Oral Roberts vs. Oakland, but before we pencil that in (a la the Big West), we should at least keep an eye on some of the teams chasing the two big boys.

THE SoCON

Carrying the Load
The SoCon is usually a somewhat decent league – at least with a handful of teams that can at least compete with some of the better programs in the country.  And, once in a while, a SoCon team will pop up and make a statement (see: Curry, Steph).  This year is a bit bizarre on both ends of the spectrum.  The good:  there are TWO teams who can not only compete with some of the better programs, but ought to be considered two of the best mid-majors in the country and should both garner at least a little at-large consideration.  The bad:  the other 10 teams are pretty bad.  This is not typical of the usually well-balanced SoCon, but that’s what they’re staring at this year.  And, the weakness of the league will probably seal the deal for the unfortunate team that doesn’t win the SoCon tournament.

The College of Charleston (10-2, 45 RPI) is clearly among the best handful of mid-majors in the country and probably is one of the 40 or 50 best in the nation, if not better.  Their only two losses are to a good Central Florida team and a very close 7-point loss @Louisville.  Among their 10 wins is a win @Clemson, a 24-point shellacking of UMass, a 6-point win over Tennessee, and a 7-point win @ a very good Coastal Carolina team.  I could make the case that those four results can stand up against the best four results of just about anyone in any conference.  Bobby Cremins’ team is definitely the favorite going into conference play, but not by a lot.

That is because there is a resurgence at Davidson (7-4, 32).  The Wildcats didn’t quite become the Gonzaga of the south, like some predicted, but they do still have a very good program and the recruiting boon in the wake of Steph Curry’s magical run is fueling them now.  They have played a viscious schedule and picked up a couple nice W’s along the way (most notably the win @Kansas), along with a couple near-misses (@Duke and Vanderbilt).

As I said, the rest of the league might just be speed bumps for the two juggernauts on their way to facing each other for all the marbles.  Two teams have surprised a little bit, so far, and that is Georgia-Southern (3-7, 305), who had, as expected, a very poor non-conference season, has rebounded for two impressive wins in conference play to start the season 2-0.  Elon (7-4, 146) is also 2-0 in conference and is also doing that on the heels of a surprisingly solid non-conference.

Other than that, the conference is rife with underachievement and just all-around poor performances.  Chattanooga (4-8, 311) was picked to win the North Division, but has fallen on its face with an awful non-conference season.  Appalachian State (5-6, 266) was supposed to challenge Chattanooga in the North and might just do so – for the cellar.  And, Wofford (7-5, 219), who expected a rebuilding season, has been even worse than anticipated.

OVERALL:  No one in this conference can really compete with CofC or Davidson.  Fortunately, for us, they are in the same division and will get to battle it out twice before the all-important conference tournament.

THE BIG SOUTH

New Blood Adds a New Twist
The Big South stole a team from their neighboring conference, the Atlantic Sun, at seemingly just the right time – making for what could be one of the better multiple-team races.

The Campbell Fighting Camels (8-5, 174 RPI) left the Atlantic Sun for the Big South this year right when their roster was ready to truly compete.  The Camels started off white hot this season, at 8-1, including a 16-point win @Iowa.  But, a head-scratching loss to Houston Baptist on December 14th sent them into a slide that is still going four games later.  And, with their final non-conference game @N.C. State, they are likely going to enter their first Big South season of conference play with a 5-game losing streak.

To make matters worse, they open conference play with the best program in the league over the past couple of years, Coastal Carolina (9-3, 160).  The Chanticleers, through suspect means, have built a Big South dynasty and have another stacked roster this year.  They have wins over LSU and @Clemson already this year, but did lose to a bad @FIU team and by 25 @E.Carolina, so they too are entering Big South play on a bit of a skid.  That being said, there is no reason to think that this team isn’t going to be in the mix all year in this conference.

The preseason pick to win the conference has played a nasty non-conference schedule, that including losses @N.C. State, UNC, UConn, CofCharleston, and @Tennessee.  But, UNC-Asheville (6-5, 123) believes that it made them battle-tested enough to not only to repeat as tournament champs, but win the regular season title this year, as well.

One more wrench in the works is the biggest surprise of this conference, Charleston-Southern (7-4, 96).  While the Buccaneers haven’t actually beaten a team with much clout, they have been impressive in defeat on a number of occasions this year, most notably a 5-point loss @Kansas St. and a 2-point loss @CofCharleston.  They also have started conference play at 2-0, including a 33-point beatdown of a VMI (4-7, 296) that was picked to finish 3rd in the conference.

Other potential sleepers in this relatively deep conference include Winthrop (4-9, 244), who took Georgia to OT the other night, and Presbyterian (6-5, 231), who is trying to make the best of their first year of postseason eligibility.

OVERALL:  This is one of the more interesting conferences this year because of its depth at the top.  Neither C.Carolina nor UNC-Asheville probably have the horses to run away and hide, so there should be drama all year, especially if Campbell and Charleston-Southern can continue the starts that they have had.

THE ATLANTIC SUN

How Many Teams Have a Shot?
Give a list of teams in the A-Sun to any somewhat involved hoops fan, and they will tell you that this is a no-brainer…and they might be right.  But, I’m not quite ready to hand the trophy over to anyone, even Belmont (8-5, 89 RPI), in December. 

Yes, the Bruins are the clear favorites to repeat in the A-Sun, considering they have everyone back and cruised through the conference last year.  But, they aren’t the only teams that are better this year than they were last – and it’s some surprising names, even to the most ardent of A-Sun followers.

In the first place, the resident league doormat is currently all alone in first place.  USC-Upstate (8-5, 147) was picked 7th in the league in the preseason, which is saying something considering they have never finished higher than 8th, but they had a very solid non-conference slate and have rode that into conference play to the tune of three straight wins to start the season, including a 16-point road win over Stetson (4-6, 240) – who happens to be another somewhat surprising team, considering they were picked last in the conference.

North Florida (6-7, 137) was expected to (and scheduled like they would) have a team that could possibly challenge the Bruins this year.  And, while the only won 5 of their 12 non-conference games, they had a brutal slate and looked real good at times.  East Tennessee State (5-6, 208) is always in the mix in the conference and had a really good non-conference before dropping their first 2 conference games on the road.  One of the teams that got them is the hugely surprising Florida Gulf Coast (4-7, 238).  The Eagles have never played a postseason game in D-I (every year of their D-I existence, they failed to even qualify for the A-Sun tournament), but they had a promising non-conference against really good competition. 

But, the biggest surprise of all has been just how good Mercer (8-5, 101) has been this year.  Picked 8th in the conference, they were off to a decent non-conference when they took the annually brutal trip to Nashville for the conference openers.  They beat Lipscomb (6-8, 245) on December 1st and then, two nights later, nearly knocked off Belmont.  They took that momentum back to the non-conference with a win @Samford, an 11-point win over Chattanooga, close losses @Seton Hall and @Georgia, before the capper last week:  a 6-point win @Georgia Tech.

The biggest disappoinment of the A-Sun season thus far has to be Jacksonville (2-9, 312).  The Dolphins are always one of the best teams in the league, and this year was supposed to be no different, as they were picked 2nd in the conference.  But, they have had an absolutely disastrous non-conference followed up by a pair of poor showings in conference play.  The Dolphins have the talent to compete, but they just haven’t shown it.

OVERALL:  As you can tell by the length of this section, the A-Sun is much more wide open and interesting than you might think if you just want to hand the title to Belmont.  That being said, if the Bruins didn’t win the conference, it would be a huge upset, but there is a whole stable of teams that can possibly pull it off.

THE BIG SKY

Half and Half
The Big Sky is often configured the way it seems to be configured again this year – with about half the league in contention, and the other half just kind of there.

The clear team to beat in the Sky this year is Weber State (8-3, 102 RPI).  The Wildcats, led by Damian Lillard (ranked as the #11 point guard in the country by Doogan this week) have pretty much their whole team back from last year and is expected to not only win the Big Sky, but possibly make some noise in the Big Dance.  They haven’t shown a lot in the non-conference, though, as their only three real tests (@St. Mary’s, @BYU, and @Cal), they got hammered, but they have the talent and experience to really cause some problems in and outside of the Big Sky.

The normal contender to Weber in the Sky is Montana (7-5, 168), and this year is no different, as the Grizz have had a decent non-conference.  One of the biggest surprises of the non-conference in the Big Sky has been Eastern Washington (6-6, 124), who picked up a couple okay wins @Hawaii and @Idaho, and looked good in losses @Gonzaga and @Oregon.  One of the most interesting teams heading into conference play this year is defending champion Northern Colorado (3-8, 143).  The Bears have some talent returning from their tournament team a year ago and have scheduled a brutal non-conference, but haven’t really picked up many wins along the way.

Other teams to watch might be Sacramento State (5-6, 313), the perennial doormat of the league, who may actually be okay this year, and Northern Arizona (4-8, 294), who are unusually underappreciated going into the season this year, but have the potential to be a lot better than what they have shown thus far.

OVERALL:  This is Weber State’s conference to lose, but if they are to lose it, it will most likely be to Montana.  E.Washington and the defending champs, N.Colorado, might make a push, but it remains to be seen if they can put it all together.

THE SUN BELT

Look Who’s Got Some “Big Boys”
The Sun Belt has produced some madness in March in the past, but it has almost always been reserved to two programs that we affectionately call the Hilltoppers and the Ragin’ Cajuns.  But, this year, the Sun Belt actually might have a pair of powerhouses that go by “Blue Raiders” and “Pioneers.”

The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (11-2, 91 RPI) have been the underrated story of the low-major non-conference season this year.  They are 11-2, with the only losses being a 3-point loss to Belmont and a 10-point loss @UAB.  And, their 11 wins have been very impressive – a 20-point win @UCLA, a 24-point win over Akron, a 3-point revenge win over Belmont, and, most recently, a 12-point win over Ole Miss.  Wow!  This team can flat-out play and should be the clear winner of the Sun Belt’s North Division.

But, the South Division has a bit of a juggernaut itself in the Denver Pioneers (10-2, 31).  The Pioneers have only lost 2 games – @Cal and a 2-point OT loss to Iona.  They have already beaten Southern Miss and St. Mary’s (by 12).  This team is for real and can make a real case as being the best team in the state of Colorado.

While Mid Tenn and Denver are the clear favorites in their respective divisions, there are a couple of other teams that can make some noise this year.  Don’t let the record fool you about Florida Atlantic (4-9, 122), as they have played a monstrous schedule and were actually picked to finish ahead of Middle Tennessee this year.  South Alabama (8-3, 111) has been playing real well as of late, and one can never count out Western Kentucky (4-9, 198), even in the proverbial “down year.”

Down in the South Division, there are a couple teams chasing Denver that can play.  Perennial contender, LA-Lafayette (6-8, 205), was picked to win this division and has been up and down in the non-conference.  The always dangerous Mean Green of North Texas (7-6, 228) should hang around all year, as should the defending tournament champs, AR-Little Rock (3-10, 309), despite a really slow start.  And, the one team that should not be overlooked as maybe the biggest threat to Denver in the South is Arkansas State (6-7, 139).  The Red Wolves never seem to garner the respect they might otherwise deserve and maybe it’s their year to reach up and grab the title.

OVERALL:  With one powerhouse in each division (Middle Tennessee and Denver), the Sun Belt can get pretty interesting, especially if some of these potential spoilers start to really believe.