After 24 conference previews, we are now down to the final 8 conferences. These are, most likely, going to be the competitors for the First Four 16-seed games and the other 16- and 15-seeds. For the most part, these guys are going to be “happy to be there” and not provide much of an upset risk…but you never know. And, there is one exception to that…
THE IVY LEAGUE
They Do It Right…
I am going to preface this comment with a statement of “it’s easy to ‘do it right‘ when making money is literally unimportant.” But, with that being said, the Ivy League does it right – no conference tournament. What they lose in drama and excitement in early March, they make up for by sending their best representative to the Dance in hopes that they can create even more excitement in mid- or late-March. Oh, and you always have that rare season where there is a tie at the top and then you’ve got a winner-take-all game on the neutral floor like we had last year.
But…don’t expect that kind of drama this year. Harvard (10-1, 27 RPI) is going to the Dance this year. And, we can say that convincingly because there is no conference tournament, so not only would someone have to upset Big Red, but they would have to also navigate the rest of the Ivy schedule better than they do. Highly unlikely because this team is loaded.
The biggest threat is probably Yale (8-2, 115), but they haven’t exactly shown anything in the non-conference that would lead anyone to believe they have any shot at upstaging Big Red. There are always the dangerous Princeton (6-7, 189) and Penn (6-6, 144), who have the two best non-Harvard players in the Ivy League in Ian Hummer for the Tigers and Zach Rosen for the Quakers. But, the rest of the rosters just aren’t good enough to compete with Tommy Amaker’s squad.
The biggests suprise of the non-conference would probably be Columbia (7-5, 138), who just had a 7-game winning streak snapped this week @Marist. They beat North Texas, Holy Cross, and a pretty good Long Island team along the way. Then again, they did just lose by 20 to Marist…
OVERALL: Harvard will win this conference going away and make the Dance for the first time in 60 years. Bank it.
THE PATRIOT LEAGUE
Another League With No Scholarships, Yet Pretty Solid Hoops, Considering
It is somewhat understandable that the Ivy League schools can sustain solid sports programs because the educational opportunities that those schools provide is a unique and rare commodity, so they are able to at least make a decent pitch to any player in America that can afford their tuition. Now, taking nothing away from the educational quality at schools in the PL (to be honest, these schools are actually very, very good), they do not come with the cache of a Harvard or a Yale. So, it is that much more impressive when these programs achieve any modicum of success in D-I sports.
The preseason favorite and most battle-tested Patriot League team this year is Bucknell (8-6, 71 RPI). The Bison have weathered a very difficult schedule and even pulled off victories over Princeton and Richmond, while staying competitive in games @Minnesota, @Vanderbilt, @George Mason, and @Syracuse. Now, while the Bison have the best RPI and were the preseason pick to win the league, I might be leaning another way on this one.
Maybe it’s my infatuation with the great C.J. McCallum, but I like the Lehigh Mountain Hawks (10-4, 95) to challenge the Bison and, ultimately, take the PL crown this year. Their non-conference has been very good, including a really nice win @Wagner and an 81-point performance at the Breslin Center in a 9-point loss @Michigan State.
And, there’s more to the intrigue of the PL this year – as usual. Holy Cross (5-7, 150) has struggled in the non-conference (like usual), but was picked to finish 2nd in the league and should compete. And, American (8-5, 130), despite losing a lot of talent from last year’s team, has surprised some people in the non-conference, and they also look poised to make a run this year.
The other four teams are either not very good programs or having down years. Lafayette (5-7, 241) is the latter, so you never know when they can find their stride. Colgate (5-7, 229) has actually had a much better non-conference than most anticipated, but they probably don’t have the horses.
OVERALL: This is a wide-open, three- or, possibly, four-team race this year. Bucknell, Lehigh, and American should be in the fray all year, with Holy Cross a potential sleeper.
THE NORTHEAST CONFERENCE
The New Kid With the Familiar Face is Ready to Break Out
I really enjoy the NEC, despite it having some of the worst basketball on the D-I level. I think there is enough diversity in the league and intrigue every night to make for interesting storylines. And, this year is no exception.
Bobby Hurley. Remember him? Well, he’s back. The head coach of Wagner (8-3, 68 RPI) has the team from Staten Island playing the best basketball in their program’s history, as shown most recently with a win @Pittsburgh. The Seahawks might be ready to take that momentum into the NEC for a title run.
But, they will have to catch the defending champs, who have already beaten them in the conference opener, the Long Island Blackbirds (7-6, 136). The Blackbirds are poised and ready to defend their NEC title, but there have been some chinks in the armor this year, particularly a recent four-game stretch that saw them barely squeak by Lafayette, lose @Columbia and @Norfolk State, and then barely beat 2-11 St. Peter’s. They did drop 100 on North Texas last week, so maybe they have righted the ship since then, but it was a little disconcerting for Blackbird fans.
And, all this talk about Wagner and LIU has caused people to forget about the team that has actually been the most impressive, in my opinion, over the whole of the non-conference, and that is Robert Morris (10-3, 84). The Colonials have only lost three games – all close losses – @Penn, @Pitt, and Cleveland St. They have wins over LaSalle and @Duquesne. They have two huge games this week @Memphis and @Ohio. If they can win either of those games, it will cement that they are the team to beat in the NEC. Just staying close on the road against two of the better teams in the country will show a lot.
Two other teams that have to be mentioned because of their talent, while not necessarily their results so far are Central Connecticut State (5-6, 280) and Quinnipiac (7-5, 206). Both teams certainly have the potential to contend in this league, despite their shaky non-conference seasons.
OVERALL: Another very interesting NEC is about to get underway this year, where no one would be surprised if any of several teams took the title. Either way, it probably wouldn’t all be ironed out until the bitter end, so it could be dramatic. Personally, I am sticking with Robert Morris as my pick. The experts in the preseason went with the defending champs, LIU, while the national media (on the heels of a win @Pitt and a love affair with former Duke point guards) is touting Wagner. And, I still wouldn’t count out CCSU or Quinnipiac from contention. It should be another fun one in the NEC.
THE AMERICA EAST
It Doesn’t Get Much Worse
The America East has always teetered on entering the arena of simple cannon fodder (a la the SWAC or the Southland), but have always had a couple teams or at least a little depth to keep them out of that category. Well, not this year. This conference is really, really bad.
Well, I guess it’s not all bad. Even though the abysmal UMBC (1-11, 335 RPI) program is actually better than TWO conference-mates (Binghamton (0-11, 341) and Hartford (0-11, 343)), there are a couple bright spots…well, relatively speaking…in this year’s A-East.
The Maine Black Bears (6-4, 152) might be the only team that can be considered to be “exceeding expectations” so far – and that’s not saying much. Albany (7-6, 175) and Vermont (6-7, 162) have actually looked relatively decent against okay competition. And, if you put any credence in preseason predictions, you might say that Stony Brook (4-6, 265) and Boston U (4-8, 177), who were picked #1 and #2, respectively, might have a shot.
Hey, someone’s gotta win it, right?
OVERALL: This conference is terrible this year. Maine and Albany have looked barely mediocre, so I guess they are the favorites. If I had to pick a winner, though, I’d probably go with Vermont, slightly ahead of BU…not really sure why, though.
THE MEAC
As Usual, There is One Good Team in a Pretty Bad Conference – But, it’s Not Who You Think
The MEAC is almost always a one- or, maybe, a two-team league. And, those teams are almost always the same one. This year, it looks like there is a clear team to beat…and it’s someone new.
Morgan State (2-8, 170 RPI) has been completely dominant in the MEAC for almost a decade now. But, this year, they are really struggling – albeit against a typically tough schedule. Hampton (4-8, 338) is often the one team to challenge Morgan and get to the Dance (everyone remember the fat little coach that beat Iowa State as a 15-seed?). But, the Pirates have been dreadful so far. Coppin State (4-7, 156) is also a team that you have to watch out for and, this year, they look okay, but not title-worthy. Bethune-Cookman (4-10, 306) has been building something, but they graduated nearly their whole team last year and aren’t very good this year. Even teams like Delaware State (4-6, 292) and South Carolina State (4-8, 191) have at least shown signs in the past of being developing programs…but they’re not very good this year either. MD-Eastern Shore (3-10, 300)? They looked on the brink of a breakout last year, but fell on their faces and they’re still picking up the pieces. So, who is it? Not Howard (4-8, 279), right? They have been bad for a while, but at least have a history. Nope. Florida A&M (2-11, 342) and N.C. A&T (4-11, 290) are terrible, so it’s not them. North Carolina Central (7-6, 217) and Savannah State (5-8, 235) are brand-new to Division-I, so it’s probably not them.
Give up? Well, the team to beat this year – without question – is Norfolk State (9-5, 41). The Spartans have put together an incredibly impressive non-conference resume that fell just 2 points shy of being phenomenal (a 59-57 loss to then-unbeaten Marquette). They look the part and have played the part of the clear-cut favorite the whole year. Now, they just have to go out and beat the likes of Morgan, Hampton, and Coppin to prove it.
OVERALL: With Morgan State down, this is a bad MEAC, outside of Norfolk. So, if this isn’t the year for the Spartans, I’m not sure when it will be.
THE SOUTHLAND
The Crazy Southland Has Some Players This Year
The Southland is usually nuts, in that all the teams are pretty bad, but few are dreadful, and, therefore, they always seem to beat up on each other, with the regular season winner oftentimes finishing with 4, 5, sometimes 6 or more conference losses. This year, there is a little separation between the have and have-nots, but I’m still not ruling out craziness…
There is one team that has shown the potential to possibly run away and hide with this conference, and that is Lamar (8-5, 34 RPI). Listen to the 5 losses on the Lamar schedule this year: @Louisville, @Ohio, @TCU, @Ohio State, @Kentucky. Yes, three Top 10 teams plus maybe the best mid-major and a decent team from C-USA, all on the road. Their wins include a decent Arkansas St. team, a 20-point shellacking on the road at a very good Tennessee Tech team, and a really nice win @Rice. There is a chance this team is way too good for the rest of the league once conference play starts.
Then again, there are a couple other teams who have shown glimmers of real potential (in between glimmers of real despair). The defending champs and preseason favorites (with everyone back) are UT-San Antonio (6-6, 153). The Roadrunners have looked real good and then real bad – sometimes in successive games – this year. UT-Arlington(6-5, 199) has looked real good when playing some steep competition, but also real ugly at other times, particularly a home loss to lowly Samford.
And, then there are the usual suspects: Stephen F. Austin (5-6, 334) is always talented, but have been pretty bad this year. The same can be said for Sam Houston State (5-8, 298). And, for the third straight season, the prognosticators pegged SE Louisiana (5-5, 299) as the preseason co-favorite to win the league, but it looks like they might be 0-for-3 with that prediction.
Another bright spot has been Central Arkansas (5-7, 227). It’s not bright enough to peg them as contenders, but they seem to have come a long way since being the perennial league doormats. Then again, they did give up 124 points for UNLV earlier this week…
OVERALL: Lamar has been head and shoulders about the rest of the league when assessing the non-conference performances of the rest of the league. There is a decent amount of talent here – particularly UTSA and UT-Arlington, but the usual suspects (SFA, SHSU, and SELa) don’t seem to have the firepower this year. This league is Lamar’s to lose.
THE SWAC
Even I Have Trouble Generating Interest in the SWAC Each Year
I hate to say it, but even me – who likes college hoops to an embarrassing extent – struggles to care about the SWAC. The teams are bad, and they always think it’s smart to play absurdly hard schedules. It’s like it’s a league of 10 Washington Generals whose only mission in D-I is to provide cannon fodder for the best teams in the league as they work out their rotations and generate highlight reels for incoming recruits. Sorry for the rant.
I guess there is a bit of a bright spot, in that Prairie View (4-9, 283 RPI) actually has a couple D-I victories before entering conference play – which is unusual. So, that means they are the favorites…I guess.
Jackson State (2-10, 188) is usually the best of the bunch, so they would have to be considered. Also, Texas-Southern (1-9, 204) and Mississippi Valley State (1-10, 155) were good last year and were picked #1 and #2 this year, so maybe they are contenders. Sorry, I couldn’t tell the difference among their 60-point blowouts…
OVERALL: Honestly, I have no idea. I guess Prairie View because they actually beat a few D-I teams would be my pick. But, TX-Southern and MVSU seem to be the best on paper. And, you should never count out Jackson St. in the SWAC.
THE GREAT WEST
The Mismatched Conference with No Tournament Bid
The winner of the Great West does get a bid…to the CBI. And, that’s probably good because this conference isn’t.
N.J.I.T. (5-6, 201 RPI) has clearly been the best team of the six so far, but they have ridiculous road trips in this conference, considering they are in the “Great West.” Utah Valley (6-8, 281) won the inaugural conference title last year and was picked to win it again this year. Last year the two worst teams in D-I were both in this six-team league, but both Houston Baptist (5-7, 253) and TX-Pan American (4-10, 302) seem at least relatively competitive…sort of.
Chicago State (0-13, 301) does not, but they have played a decent slate of games.
