NCAA Tournament Preview – The South Region

The first two rounds of the NCAA tournament constitute the greatest 4 days on the sporting calendar every year.  It never disappoints and always lives up to its ridiculous hype.  It’s simply the best.  Forget “filling out our brackets” to the end, let’s just focus on this weekend’s Madness and then when the smoke clears and we know who’s left standing, we can figure out where to go from there.  It’s all the first two rounds right for me right now – and I like to think of it as a series of 4-team tournaments (or “pods”) around the country.

Let’s start in the South.  Overall, I don’t think Kentucky has all that tough a road (which is fine, considering they are the #1 overall seed).  Duke is clearly the weakest #2, though Baylor could beat anyone on any given day, but they would have to avoid implosion for three rounds before even getting a shot at UK.  Indiana is flawed at #4, and Wichita St. is good, but not real threat to the ‘Cats.  The one intriguing spot is UConn at #9, particularly with the two coaches hating each other, but that game will be played with the Commonwealth of Kentucky (Louisville), and there is certainly no guarantee that the Huskies will even arrive to play that game.

Kentucky’s Pod – Thu/Sat in Louisville, KY

The #1 overall seed, Kentucky, gets to open with the play-in winner, who will probably be in-state “rival,” Western Kentucky.  The Hilltoppers have a losing record on the year and won’t give much of a problem (nor will the winner of the dreadful SWAC, Mississippi Valley St., if they win tonight).

The 8/9 matchup is very intriguing if, for nothing else, it dictates whether or not the top overall seed has to play the defending national champs in the second round.  Iowa St.’s Royce White is a total stud and “The Mayor” Freddy Hoiberg has done great work with the Cyclones, but they get a rough first-round matchup with UConn, who may have righted the ship.

Obviously, as the #1 overall seed, playing in their home state, the ‘Cats should get out of their pod unscathed, but a second-round matchup with UConn could be a really tough proposition if this is the UConn team that was #4 in the preseason polls.  Drummond and Oreaki inside are massive, and Jeromy Lamb and Shabazz Napier have shown what they can do.  If the Huskies get anything out of highly-touted Roscoe James or the German Neils Giffey, then they can be really tough.  So, here are my very unscientific odds to win this pod:

1. Kentucky – 85%
2. UConn – 10.9%
3. Iowa St. – 4%
4. W.Kentucky – 0.09%
5. Mississippi Valley St. – 0.01%

Indiana’s Pod – Thu/Sat in Portland, OR

The loss of Vernell Jones is absolutely heartbreaking, when you think about it.  Here is a guy who is now in his fourth year as an basketball player at Indiana University and has never played in a postseason game.  And, now, in his senior season, after three years of building to this point, when his team is finally relevant again – in the top 15 in the country – he tears his ACL in the Big Ten tournament, ending his season, his career, and his only chance at playing the Big Dance.  Just brutal.  The lone bright spot from it is that he won’t have to be in uniform when the Hoosiers get upset in the First Round.  That’s right, I really like this New Mexico St. team, and I think they will beat Indiana on Thursday.  Wendel McKines is one of the best players in the country that no one has ever heard of…until now.

The other game in this pod was the third matchup announced by CBS on Sunday, and I almost threw something at my TV because I saw where it was going – where it always goes.  The Committee always seems to have a habit of matching up really good mid-majors against one another, assuring that one of them will go out, so that they don’t continue on in the process, killing the TV ratings of later rounds.  And, I thought that this Committe was doing it again.  As it turned out, this Committee did a pretty fantastic job and was very fair to the mid-majors, this matchup just happened to come through.  Would I have rather seen Cincinnati-VCU and Wichita-Texas?  Yes, but that’s splitting hairs, and I probably would have complained about Wichita being underseeded.  Anyway, this game is going to be really good.  VCU‘s chaos pressure is actually a pretty bad matchup for Wichita St.  Joe Ragland is a great scoring guard, but isn’t incredibly efficient with the ball.  The Rams might force 20+ turnovers on Thursday.  But, they also aren’t the same VCU team that shot lights-out in last year’s tournament.  Brandon Burgess is very good player, but he’s not an NBA draft pick, like they have had in the past.  And, Wichita is very good and very deep.  Garrett Stutz might be the most improved player in the country, and all the talk about Ragland has people forget that Ben Smith and, especially, Toure Murry are really outstanding players.  I like the Shockers to survive here…barely.

And, either way, I like the winner of that 5-12 game to get through this pod en route to a showdown with Kentucky next week.  So, give me Wichita St. to win this pod, but it’s really way up in the air.  While I like New Mexico St. to beat Indiana, I actually think Indiana has a better chance to win the pod because I don’t see the Aggies winning back-to-back games.

1. Wichita St. – 36%
2. VCU – 29%
3. Indiana – 21%
4. New Mexico St. – 14%

Baylor’s Pod – Thu/Sat in Albuquerque, NM

Baylor might be the most physically talented team in the country.  They have unbelievable athletes on this team and can be scary good.  But, they play with immaturity and even apathy at times.  But, when they’re good, they can beat anyone – and are pretty scary.  They open on Thursday with a South Dakota St. team that has a guy named Nate Wolters, who you will hear a whole lot about in the next couple of days.  He’s really, really good, and puts up ridiculous numbers.  And, this team has become the poster-child for national college hoops writers that want to show everyone that they know about more than just the major conferences (my guess is because they’re enamored by the nickname, Jackrabbits).  It’s kind of annoying, but doesn’t take away what they’ve done this year.  They finished second to a good Oral Roberts team in the Summit and have a 20-point win at Washington on their resume.  But, they will be overmatched on Thursday, so don’t let anyone talk you into this upset pick.

The 6/11 game is fascinating, actually.  The Pac-12 tournament champs, Colorado, aren’t that far from home in Albuquerque, and they are very good at home.  They have a double-double machine in Anthony Roberson, but he won’t be the best big on the floor on Thursday.  Mike Moser – a UCLA transfer – is an absolute stud for UNLV, and should at least cancel out whatever Roberson gives Colorado.  And, the Rebels have better guards in Oscar Bellfield and Anthony Marshall.  I like UNLV here easily to set up a really nice second-round matchup with Baylor.  That is one I cannot wait for.

Can Baylor put together two great games in three days?  If not, UNLV will beat them.  If this game happens, it might be the highlight of a great Saturday.  Wolters is good enough to win a couple games, so, while I think the Jackrabbits are overmatched, I don’t think it’s totally out of the question that they get through here.  I actually give them a slightly better chance than Colorado.

1. Baylor – 43%
2. UNLV – 36%
3. South Dakota St. – 11%
4. Colorado – 10%

Duke’s Pod – Fri/Sun in Greensboro, NC

I do like rewarding the higher seeds with an easier path and maybe a slightly shorter trip, but I do think that UNC or Duke playing in Greensboro, NC, is a little too unfair.  But, I guess the almighty dollar always trumps everything.  This is not your typical season for a Duke team, but it is your prototypical Coach K season, as he has completely maximized the talent on his roster this year.  He is so good, it’s really getting to be unfair.  And, they drew a team that probably can’t pull off this upset – especially in Greensboro – but they will hang with them.  While everyone has been loving Nate Wolters all year, I have been singing the praises of C.J. McCollum, Lehigh‘s point gu…scratch that…do-everything-guard.  He has scored 2,030 points, dished out 262 assists, grabbed 622 rebounds, and has more steals (207) than fouls (168) and nearly as many steals as turnovers (227).  In fact, this year, he did have more steals than turnovers.  Those are unbelievable career numbers…and the dude is ONLY A JUNIOR!  That’s right, the all-time leading scorer in Patriot League history (who happens to average 3+ assists, 3+ steals, and 6+ rebounds a game) still has another year of eligibility.  Ya, he’s that good.  But, Coach K will figure out a way to slow him down – he always does.

The 7/10 game is a fascinating game between the nation’s most overachieving team (Notre Dame), and one of its most underachieving teams (Xavier).  If you said at the beginning of the season that these two teams would meet in the tournament, you might think that XU was the higher seed in a 5/12 game or 4/13 game (after getting over the shock of ND actually making the tournament).  But, no, Mike Brey has done a terrific coaching job in South Bend, and quite honestly, Chris Mack has done a pretty terrible job with the Musketeers.  That being said, XU is cleary the more talented of the two, and probably the only one of the two that really could win this pod.

Either way, Duke has a really nice draw here, both with location and opponents.  Even though it was nice of the NCAA to allow Luke Harangody to return to ND after they lost Abromaitis, it won’t be enough.  Duke should cruise through this pod.

1. Duke – 76%
2. Xavier – 19%
3. Notre Dame – 4%
4. Lehigh – 1%