NCAA Tournament Preview – The West Region

The West Region is pretty stacked and, therefore, pretty wide open.  While they had a terrific season (and have the best tournament coach ever that isn’t named Wooden), it’s hard not to have some doubt in this region’s top seed, Michigan St.  Throw in the fact that they could have brutally tough matchups at every turn, and you’ve got yourself a potential sleeper Final Four pick here.

Michigan St.’s Pod – Fri/Sun in Columbus, OH

Don’t get me wrong, I didn’t say that I was doubting Michigan St., necessarily.  This team did win the regular season and conference tournament of the best conference in America.  There is something to be said for that, at least.  They did draw – by far – the toughest 16-seed, in Long Island, but it’s still a 16-seed.  Just don’t immediately count out the Blackbirds, who have been here before, and played UNC really tough last year, before bowing out in the final minutes (the Blackbirds scored 87 against the Heels as a 16-seed last year).

The 8/9 game in this region might actually be more important for Spartan fans to pay attention to than MSU’s own game.  Memphis might be the most underseeded team in the entire field at #8 and is a team that can absolutely go toe-to-toe with MSU in the second round.  But, they could just as easily get swept up by a Rick Majerus-coached St. Louis team in this first round.  The Bilikens are very deep, very talented, and, obviously, very prepared.

For a #1-seed, this is not even close to a lock.  They are lined up with a very underseeded 16-seed and an unbelievably underseeded 8-seed.  Not saying that they will lose both, but this isn’t your typical cruise control pod for a #1-seed.  The best scenario for them is a St. Louis win over Memphis (certainly possible) because they match up very well against the Bilikens.

1. Michigan St. – 56%
2. Memphis – 31%
3. St. Louis – 12%
4. Long Island – 1%

 Louisville’s Pod – Thu/Sat in Portland, OR

I am going to have trouble being objective about this one because of my love for this Long Beach St. team and, to a lesser degree, this Davidson team.  I also think that Louisville, despite their top-5 ranking in December and Big East tournament championship last week, are not as good as their seed (which is warranted) may indicate.  I do really like this New Mexico team, though.  This is, BY FAR, the most interesting pod in the entire field.  If I could go to one site this weekend, it would absolutely be Portland (they also have Indiana-NM State and Wichita-VCU).

Louisville takes on a very, very good Davidson team that beat Kansas in Kansas City this year.  Jake Cohen – a forward from Philly – leads a terrific junior class that came in in the wake of the Steph Curry tournament run.  I think that there is a really good shot at an upset here.

And, the other game has another good shot at an upset, as Long Beach St., one of the best low-majors in recent memory, takes on a New Mexico team that would compete in any conference in America.  This game is incredibly good, and I think the winner might be the favorite to win this pod.

I have no idea what is going to happen here.  I want to give everyone 25%, but that sounds cop-outish.  So, I’ll go with this year’s strange basketball obsession, Casper Ware and the 49ers.

1. Long Beach St. – 30%
2. New Mexico – 29%
3. Louisville – 22%
4. Davidson – 19%

Marquette’s Pod – Thu/Sat in Louisville, KY

If you want a sleeper title contender, look no further than Marquette.  The Golden Eagles are experienced, talented, and motivated.  While I think this whole “they play really hard” thing is totally overblown (what does Buzz Williams inspire that 50-60 other coaches don’t – I actually think he is a pretty poor game-day coach) they are just very talented.  Jae Crowder, while not at all deserving of Big East POY, is a terrific player.  Darius Johnson-Odom might even be better.  Vander Blue is a super-talented point guard, and this team flat-out guards you.  It should be really interesting to see how they do depending on who they get from the play-in game, BYU or Iona, as the teams have vastly different styles.  But, either way, I think Marquette should survive…should survive.

The Committee did a nice job with Murray St.‘s seeding.  The polls have them as a top-10 team, but their conference and schedule and such have them more like a 10-seed.  So, they split the difference and gave them a solid #6.  And, even more beneficial, they gave them a couple matchups that don’t completely overmatch them in the post.  They open with a very good, very underappreciated Colorado St. team that does stuggle away from home.  But, anywhere you play UNLV, New Mexico, and San Diego St., you’ve gotta be pretty good to pull out W’s – and they’ve got all three of them on their resume.

This pod is pretty wide-open…if Marquette doesn’t win it.

1. Marquette – 54%
2. Murray St. – 18%
3. Colorado St. – 15%
4. BYU – 8%
5. Iona – 5%

Missouri’s Pod – Fri/Sun in Omaha, NE

Missouri could have easily been a #1-seed (over UNC).  But, at least they were put in the region with the weakest #1, on paper.  They weren’t done any favors with the #3 Marquette on their side, but I still don’t see any reason why they shouldn’t, at least, get to the Elite Eight.  Also, it looks like the Committee decided to give them a 16-seed disguised as a 15-seed, in Norfolk St.  It was a great season for Norfolk, but, short of some crazy foul trouble or an injury, they really have no shot here, as they didn’t even win the regular season title in the lowly MEAC.

Missouri won’t be given a break in the second round at all, though, as Florida, a top-15 team all year, is the 7-seed, and Virginia, a top-4 ACC team, is the 10-seed.  This UF-UVa game is one of the best of the entire first round.  It should be fascinating to see just how many terrible shots that Boynton and Walker chuck up because of the frustration caused by the slow, slower, sloooooooooower pace of UVa.

And, then the winner of that game, will present Missouri with much different challenges, depending on who it is.  Florida can run and gun with anyone, and UVa can frustrate the hell out of anyone.  Mizzou is not going to have an easy time in Round 2.

1. Missouri – 51%
2. Florida – 30%
3. Virginia – 18.9%
4. Norfolk St. – 0.1%