Well, talk about throwing a wrench in the works. The #1-seed in the East just lost their most important player for the tournament. This region is, all of a sudden, the definition of “wide open.”
Syracuses’s Pod – Thu/Sat in Pittsburgh, PA
Fab Melo isn’t the best player on Syracuse, but he is, without question, the most important. What is the biggest weakness for the ‘Cuse? Rebounding and interior defense. Who is, by far the best rebounder on the team? Melo. And, who was the Big East’s Defensive Player of the Year? Melo. That could spell trouble. Fortunately, for them, Melo was declared ineligible after the seedings were announced (not that it definitely would have dropped them, but we’ve seen stranger things happen), so they are still a #1-seed and they still get UNC-Asheville tomorrow, whom they should be okay against even without Melo because Asheville isn’t all that deep. They shouldn’t get too complacent, though, because we all know the best way to beat a zone is to get real hot from outside, and Asheville has a pair of phenomenally talented and experience guards in J.P. Primm and Matt Dickey, who comprise as good of a low-major backcourt as you’ll find anywhere.
Kansas St. is battle-tested and tough and should be pretty happy with their matchup with Southern Miss. Larry Eustachy’s Golden Eagles have had a great season – and Eustachy is a great coach, but they seem to be taking on water recently, and I really don’t see this as your typical 8/9 game. So, that means it will probably be the best game of the round…
Fans of the Orange are probably very much in support of Eustachy and his Southern Miss squad now, because without Melo, they do not matchup very well with the tough and rugged Wildcats. With Melo, they probably would cruise through Pittsburgh; without him, it’s much less rosy upstate, so a Southern Miss win could go a long way.
- Syracuse – 52%
- Kansas St. – 36.5%
- Southern Miss- 11%
- UNC-Asheville – 0.5%
Wisconsin’s Pod – Thu/Sat in Albuquerque, NM
I talk a lot about underrated and underappreciated coaches on this blog, but there is no one in the country more underrated than Bo Ryan. Name me the NBA players that Bo Ryan has been able to lure to Wisconsin. Jon Leuer…? Anyone else? No, and yet the guy just keeps winning. And, he has done it again this year, with a new set of smoke and mirrors. But, there is one thing that has alluded him all these years – a Final Four. I’m not too sure that this team is the one that will get that done for him, but with Bo, you never know. Their trek starts today against a dangerous 13-seed from the Big Sky in Montana. The Grizzlies boast a pair of dynamic guards in Will Cherry and Karim Jabbar, who really get out and guard people. But, this isn’t a great matchup for the Grizz because Wisconsin doesn’t need to score much to win, so Montana’s defensive acumen isn’t as big of an advantage against the Badgers as it would against many other teams that rely on perimeter scoring to beat you. That being said, if they can get by Wisconsin somehow, a second round showdown with Vanderbilt might be just the matchup that they would like.
Speaking of Vanderbilt, the Commodores come into the Tournament the way the came into the season – a chic Final Four pick. The problem is that their work in the middle, they didn’t really do much to impress. That being said, they have an immense amount of talent and experience, with Jenkins, Taylor, Ezeli, and Tinsley, and certainly have what it takes to make a serious run in this tournament. The Fab Melo suspension may have helped them as much as anyone. But, you know what’s funny? The Vandy love is so palpable right now that it is completely overshadowing the team that I really thought would be getting that love – Harvard. This team is really good, and were they matched up against anyone else, we might be hearing all this talk about the Crimson making the Sweet 16 and so on. But, we haven’t…which means, they can actually be a savvy sleeper pick.
The second round in this pod is going to be so matchup-dependent (like anything else) that it is so hard to even think about right now. Either way, this is a fascinating section of the draw that isn’t getting much talk because most people think Vandy is going to roll through (not that I disagree with them being the favorite here, I just think it’s a lot more wide open than one might be led to believe).
- Vanderbilt – 41%
- Wisconsin – 34%
- Harvard – 14%
- Montana – 11%
Florida St.’s Pod – Fri/Sun in Nashville, TN
Florida St. had a weekend for the ages, knocking off Duke on Satuday and UNC on Sunday – wow! And, this team might just be that good. They are experienced, mature, and talented. Plus, with Bunny Colvin…I mean Leonard Hamilton…on the sidelines, they are well-coached. That being said, let’s not go too crazy about a team that might not have a single pro on the roster. They open with a team that is pretty underseeded, in St. Bonaventure, who did finish 4th in a good, deep A-10 and then won the tournament. And, they absolutely have a pro on the roster, as Andrew Nicholson will, most definitely, be the best player on the floor on Friday. The senior center from Canada is a man-child. I don’t think it’ll be easy for the Seminoles, but they should survive.
Cincinnati went to the Big East championship game for the first time in their history – an impressive feat for a team that lost at home to Presbyterian earlier this year. Say what you will about Yancy Gates – and I have – the guy can play. They draw a Texas team that makes another tournament for the underappreciated Rick Barnes (I feel like I defend him every year around this time…and then he proves me to be an idiot when they underachieve). The ‘Horns didn’t expect for their freshman center and freshman point guard to bolt for the NBA last year after good, but not great, seasons. So, they were kind of left reeling at the start of the year, but found some semblance of consistency late, including a nice win over Iowa St. in the Big XII tournament. J’Covan Brown is probably the best player on either roster, but I think this is a really bad matchup for Texas here – as they have a tendency to be “out-toughed” (another consistent trait of a Rick Barnes team that makes it harder to defend him).
I think the Seminoles got a pretty decent draw here, all things considered, as they get a 14-seed (albeit an underseeded one) to open and then either a “tough” team that isn’t as tough as them (Cincy) or a soft team that they will push around (Texas). The ‘Noles should be heading to their second straight Sweet 16.
- Florida St. – 52%
- Cincinnati – 29%
- Texas – 13%
- St. Bonaventure – 6%
Ohio St.’s Pod – Thu/Sat in Pittsburgh, PA
As I saw it in November, Ohio St. came into the season as one of definitely two and maybe three teams that seemed head and shoulders ahead of the rest of the country. The one that was a maybe (Kentucky) dominated the season and is the overall #1-seed. My clear-cut preseason favorite (UNC) struggled at times, but still ended up as a #1-seed. The Buckeyes finished in third place (albeit tied for first) in the Big Ten and lost in the conference tournament title game, ending up with a #2-seed here. That being said, they are still loaded and will be a really tough out. Their first opponent – a feisty Loyola (Md) team – is probably just happy to be here. They are a very good team that I have been touting all year, but they really don’t have the horses to match up with the Buckeyes in any way.
I really like this Gonzaga team – and you have to hand it to them for having another nationally relevant season in Spokane, and I love Kevin Jones (the rest of his West Virginia team is a bit frustrating), so this is one of the marquee first-round matchups. In fact, there might not be a better first round game than this one.
However, as much as I like that 7/10 matchup, it seems to me as if it might be one of those incredibly physical, warlike first round battles that leaves the survivor too wounded to compete in the next round. I don’t see Gonzaga giving OSU a fight on Saturday, and while I think Kevin Jones can do anything, I don’t think Truck Bryant or Denis Klicli make enough shots to take down the Buckeyes.
- Ohio St. – 69.5%
- West Virginia – 18%
- Gonzaga – 12%
- Loyola (Md) – 0.5%
