Who Would Have Guessed These Four?

The Final Four at the French.  He who protests to have predicted these four is he who lies.

The Top Half:
SEMIFINAL FRIDAY – #12 Gonzalez vs. #23 Soderling

Robin Soderling, the giant killer who slayed Nadal, went into the quarters as the underdog again, but he sure didn’t look like it.  He absolutely smoked 10th-seeded Nikolai Davydenko, winning the first set in 23 minutes and only losing 5 games in three dominant sets.  Soderling is hitting right through the clay (which is playing VERY fast this year) with a powerful, hardcourt-like game.  His court coverage is good, but it is his baseline groundstrokes that have carried him to the semifinals.

12th-seeded Fernando Gonzalez has also pounded his way to the semifinals.  He did finally drop a set–the second set–against 3rd-seeded Andy Murray, but pounced back with a bagel in the third and a 6-4 win in the fourth to get him to the semis.  Though his game seems best suited for the hardcourts (and it probably is), he did grow up in Chile playing on clay courts, so he is very comfortable on the dirt.  He looks incredibly good and is playing with immense confidence.  He looked like the top-3 player and Murray looked like the guy trying to pull off an upset (complaining about his racket and such) on Tuesday.  Gonzalez is going to be a very, VERY tough out.

BSB’s PICK:  Gonzalez in 4.  Yes, it is very difficult to pick against Soderling right now, but it seems viable.  They both have very similar games, which means that Soderling will not be able to take advantage of matchup issues, like he did in his past two upsets.  Gonzalez is more than happy to sit at the baseline and exchange forehands.  Gonzalez is just better on the ground.  Soderling’s one big advantage might be his service game, but we think that Gonzalez’s ground game will be enough to get him to the finals…at least.

The Bottom Half:
SEMIFINAL FRIDAY – #2 Federer vs. #5 Del Potro

Juan-Martin Del Potro–the BSB-proclaimed favorite to win this tournament–has rolled through pretty much every match so far.  The only set he lost was a tiebreak to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and he came right back and won the following set 6-1.  He made short work of experienced, solid clay courter, Tommy Robredo in the semis, in straight sets and just over two hours.  He is probably the best player in the world that no one has ever heard of and this is his best surface.

Roger Federer, as we expected here at BSB, put it all together and is seeming to grasp the moment now that Nadal is out.  He has said himself, “I don’t have a clay court problem; I have a Rafael Nadal problem.”  Now, that that “problem” has been solved, he is a man on a mission to tie Pete Sampras in all-time Grand Slams and end all arguments as to who is the G.O.A.T.  Federer knocked off Gael Monfils, who pushed him to the brink in last year’s semis, with complete ease on Wednesday, with a straight set quarterfinal victory.  Federer now has an absolutely AMAZING streak of TWENTY consecutive semifinal appearances in Grand Slam events.  That means every Grand Slam for 5 consecutive years has included Roger Federer.  To put that into some perspective, the second longest such streak is 10.  He has DOUBLED the longest Grand Slam semi streak…DOUBLED!

BSB’s PICK:  Del Potro in 4.  It may be blasphemy, but we here at BSB are consistent.  Nothing has changed our mind about thinking that Juan-Martin Del Potro is going to win this tournament, so we are going to have to go with him again.  And, we have to do it in 4 not because we think it won’t be a close, hard-fought match, but just because if it goes five, Federer will probably find a way to pull it out.  Del Potro must win the first set.  Federer is most vulnerable at the beginning of matches and is the easily the best front-runner that has ever played.  Don’t believe me?  Ask Monfils what happened after he dropped the first set in a tough tiebreak.  But, if Del Potro can win the first set (and I think he will), I believe he can win two of the next three and avoid that pressure-cooker of a fifth set.  Either way, BSB has a “vested interest” in both Del Potro (+450) and Gonzalez (+450) to win this tournament.