There are a lot of rumors circulating, as there always are this time of year, about who the Phillies will bring in to try to defend their NL East title in 2008. Mike Lowell and Miguel Cabrera have been mentioned as possibilities to fill the void at third base. There’s been much speculation about Aaron Rowand and whether or not the Phillies will bring him back. Here’s my prediction: the Phillies won’t be bringing in any thirdbaseman or centerfielder this offseason. On Opening Day 2008, Shane Victorino will be the centerfielder and Greg Dobbs will be platooning with Wes Helms at third.
That’s not really what Phillie fans want, but I think that’s the reality right now. Why? Well, the Phillies ownership, via David Montgomery, has said that the player payroll in ’08 will be in the $100-105 million range, and right now it is about $90 million. Pat Gillick has said consistently since the Brad Lidge trade that pitching continues to be the priority. It’s very hard to imagine the Phillies still having enough in their budget to sign a high-priced free agent like Rowand if they’ve already shelled out for another pitcher.
As hard as it is for me to say, I agree with Gillick if his ultimate decision is, in fact, to let Rowand walk and not pursue a thirdbaseman, in order to focus on upgrading the pitching. If there’s any blame to placed here, it would be on the Phillies ownership. After the success of the team last season and the recent announcement by commissioner Bud Selig that baseball posted record profits this year, you would really hope to see the team commit to raising the payroll. But assuming that that isn’t going to happen, Gillick has to make some tough decisions and some concessions.
Put yourself in Gillick’s shoes and take a look at the spots on the team that could use an upgrade. You have Victorino in centerfield and Jayson Werth in rightfield. You have Dobbs and Helms at third. You have Adam Eaton in your starting rotation. Which of those spots would you choose to address? I think the obvious answer is the starting pitching. The 
Phillies went into last season with six starting pitchers and we all saw how that turned out. Right now, they have five and one of them is Eaton. They need another starter and chances are it won’t come cheap. It will be interesting to see how Gillick chooses to go about getting this pitcher. Will he make another trade? Or will he choose from free-agent pool that includes options like Randy Wolf, Kris Benson, Bartolo Colon, Kyle Lohse, Hiroki Kuroda, and Carlos Silva? I’m sure Gillick isn’t too interested in making another Eaton-like signing, but he may feel forced to roll the dice once again on a free-agent pitcher.
The Phils will have to replace Rowand and Tad Iguchi on the roster, but they’ll probably do it with low-priced backups, not big name stars, and they’ll probably bring in an over-priced pitcher. For every team that’s not the Yankees or Red Sox, those are the trade-offs that have to be made.
I agree with not resigning Rowand. I think the market price for him is going to be pretty high and I wouldn’t expect numbers anywhere near his numbers of ’07. And, I don’t know if Lowell is the best option. But, is there really talk of the Phillies interest in Cabrera? I think that is where the Phillies should focus, if possible. If the Phils believe they can sign him long-term, then they should back up the prospect truck and give the Fish the farm. His work ethic and attitude concern me, slightly, and his defense is lacking, but his offensive talent is incomparable at that position. What are the Marlins looking to get in return, and do we have it?
Also, what happened to Lieber in the offseason. Is he done? I certainly don’t want to count on him, in any way, but what are the chances of a surprise return?
Yeah, I actually meant to point out that Rowand isn’t as good as he looked this year. I can definitely see him being a disappointment wherever he ends up next year. But you can’t question his effort and character, so I’m sure whoever gets him won’t be too let down.
As for Cabrera, I’ve heard it mentioned, but not in any realistic rumors. I think people see that we need a thirdbaseman and that he’s available, so it’s bound to get mentioned. I think ‘backing up the prospect truck’, as you say, would be what they want, and I still don’t know if the Phils have the prospects they would be looking for. They’re looking for a similar deal they got for Beckett, basically someone’s top 3 prospects. I saw a stat comparison between Cabrera and A-Rod at whatever age Cabrera is now, and Cabrera’s numbers were a good bit better. And he’s played in a pitcher’s park with no protection in the line-up. Crazy.
And I’m pretty sure Lieber is a free agent, but I have heard mention of the Phillies bringing him back on a 1-year deal. I don’t think that makes much sense really, but I guess if the price is right they would consider it.
I agree with Doogan. Dobbs and Helms are a young cheap platoon at third and I just don’t think it makes sense to spend the money (Lowell) or prospects + money (Cabrera) it’s going to take to upgrade that spot. I’d devote the lion’s share of my resources to continue trying to significantly upgrade the pen (more than just Lidge). It’s something that CAN be upgraded – there’s always live bullpen arms out there, the pu-pu platter of SP free agents Wolf/Benson/Loshe does nothing for me at the $7-10m a year it’s going to take to sign them, and a solid pen can go a long way toward covering for a medicore rotation. It’s something that can be upgraded inexpensively (relatively) given the owners hard cap on salary. Plus, it leaves you some prospect/financial flexibility to use at the trading deadline. I also think they’re right to let Rowand go – he’s good, but he’s going to be drastically over-paid by someone.
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