Bry’s Week-by-Week NFL Preview: Week Eleven

The first “Playoff Picture” was revealed after Week Ten, so now it is getting serious.  The surprises of the season so far on the positive end include the 7-2 Redskins and the 5-4 49ers.  The surprises on the negative end include the 2-7 Falcons, the 3-6 Cardinals, the 2-7 Jets, the 4-5 Dolphins, and the 2-7 Bengals.  Also, you can throw in the 5-4 Chargers as a team that probably should be better than they have been.  But, there are still 7 games left for each team, so there is a lot that can happen.  No one has more than a 1-game lead in any division, except for the Steelers and Patriots, who are running away with their respective divisions.  So, on to Week Eleven, and, with all the byes completed, we will have a full slate of games from here on out.  (winners in CAPS)

Thursday, November 19:
8:20 – Miami (4-5) at CAROLINA (6-3)
This game could deal a big blow to the Dolphins hopes of a repeat playoff appearance.  It is a short week for both teams, and Carolina is coming off a tough game against Atlanta, but I believe in John Fox and think that the Panthers have a better team and, therefore, should pull out this game at home.

Sunday, November 22:
1:00 – PITTSBURGH (9-0) at Kansas City (3-6)
The Steelers go 10-0 in their Super Bowl defense.  An undefeated team still has everything to play for, so I do not expect a letdown in KC.  This game is tougher than it might appear, but I think that the Chiefs may be in shambles by this point, and the Steelers just continue to roll.

1:00 – INDIANAPOLIS (5-4) at Baltimore (6-3) *
This one really could go either way, but I am going to take the Colts in a very tough one in Charm City.  The Ravens are coming off a short week, as they were in Cleveland Monday night.  And, the Colts are just the professional team that can handle this defense, even on the road in November.  Keep in mind, though, the Baltimore weather in November is a crapshoot and the worse it is, the more it favors the Ravens and their style of play.  And, one key factor might be that the Ravens are only 7 days away from hosting their arch-nemeses, the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers.  I know the Colts are good enough to keep a team’s focus, and the Ravens are a veteran team, but the venom for Pittsburgh is strong enough in this city to affect anyone.  The Colts may catch a break with the before- and after-games that the Ravens have on their schedule.

1:00 – San Francisco (5-4) at GREEN BAY (6-3)
The Niners do have 10 days to prepare, and the Packers are coming off a tough win over Dallas, but I think that November in Wisconsin and a solid Packers team are enough to override the young 49ers.  I like the Pack to win at home and go to an impressive 7-3.

1:00 – Buffalo (5-4) at JACKSONVILLE (4-5)
The Bills are coming off a tough game with Tennessee, while the Jags are still reeling from their loss in New York against the Jets.  This game has major AFC playoff implications, and I think the Jags can circle the wagons and take care of business at home.

1:00 – Atlanta (2-7) at NEW YORK GIANTS (6-3)
Stick a fork in the Atlanta Falcons, as they fall to 2-8.  Just another bad matchup at another bad time for the Falcons.  The Giants are not going to lose this game, at home, coming off of the bye.  The Falcons have really been screwed by scheduling circumstances this year.

1:00 – NEW ORLEANS (5-4) at Tampa Bay (2-7)
I don’t see any reason to think that the Saints will lose to both the Rams and the Bucs in back-to-back weeks.  The loss to St. Louis will probably allow them to get fired up enough to take care of the Bucs in Tampa.  Plus, the weather in Tampa is always nice, which means that the Saints passing game should be on point.

1:00 – CLEVELAND (2-7) at Detroit (1-8) *
I just think that the Browns are a better team, but I concede that this could go either way.  The Browns are coming off a Monday night war with the Ravens, but the Lions have to make a quick turnaround after this game to play Green Bay on Thanksgiving.  All told, I just think that the Browns are too talented to let this game get away.  They are 3-7, but they may not have given up on the season…yet.

1:00 – Washington (7-2) at DALLAS (6-3)
For one short week, the Skins enjoyed the best record in the NFC, by themselves, but this trip to Dallas will end that pretty quickly.  The Cowboys should be able to handle the Skins at home, casting the NFC Beast into a 3-way tie at the top.

1:00 – Seattle (5-4) at MINNESOTA (6-3)
The Vikings are a better team, they are playing at home, and the Seahawks are a West Coast team playing at 1:00.  This should be an easy win for the purple and gold.

4:05 – ARIZONA (3-6) at St. Louis (2-7)
Is it too little, too late?  Not in the NFC West, as the Cardinals pick up a big road win, which, coupled with losses for San Fran and Seattle, pulls them to only a game out of first place in the division, despite being 2 games under .500.  The Cardinals have a great offense, and we all know what Kurt Warner can do on the turf in St. Louis.  Give the Cards a win and a second life in a bad division.

4:15 – New York Jets (2-7) at NEW ENGLAND (8-1)
I think you all know, by now, how I feel about these two teams.  So, does anyone think that the Jets go into Foxborough and win?  Anyone?  I don’t.

4:15 – San Diego (5-4) at DENVER (3-6) *
The last gasp for Denver, as they circle the wagons and beat the Chargers in Denver.  They have a great homefield advantage and a score to settle with the Chargers.  I’m not incredibly confident about this pick, but I think the Broncos can rally the troops and win this game, with their season on the line.

4:15 – Cincinnati (2-7) at OAKLAND (4-5)
And the Oakland Raiders, after 11 weeks, are tied for first place?  It’s true.  They take care of the Bengals at home, and are tied with the Chargers for first in the AFC West.  I’m not crazy, there is talent on this team.

8:20 – PHILADELPHIA (5-4) at Chicago (5-4) *
Probably the Sunday night game–in a rematch of a Sunday night game a year ago.  The Birds have their backs against the wall.  By game time, they will know that a loss tonight and they will fall to two games back of EVERYONE in their division.  This may be the game that turns around the entire season.  McNabb going home, and with Leonard Weaver this year, they convert that 4th and goal.  Though the Bears have 10 days to prepare for this game, at home, I believe that this is a character game for the Birds, and they always excel in those.

Monday, November 23:
8:30 – Tennessee (5-4) at HOUSTON (5-4)
This is the “we’ve arrived” game that the Texans have been waiting to win since the beginning of their franchise’s existence.  And, I think this is the year.  The defense is steadily improving, and the offense is somewhat potent.  Andre Johnson is a beast.  The Titans still have a great defense and a steady offense, but I think they take a step backwards and this game may expose their faults to the national audience.  It is the Texans’ coming-out party, and they are going to do it on Monday Night.

To go to Week Twelve, click here

STANDINGS AFTER WEEK 11:
NFC EAST:
7-3   Dallas (1)
7-3   New York Giants (5)
7-3   Washington
6-4   Philadelphia

NFC NORTH:
7-3   Green Bay (6)
7-3   Minnesota (2)
5-5   Chicago
1-9   Detroit

NFC SOUTH:
7-3   Carolina (3)
6-4   New Orleans
2-8   Atlanta
2-8   Tampa Bay

NFC WEST:
5-5   San Francisco (4)
5-5   Seattle
4-6   Arizona
2-8   St. Louis

AFC EAST:
9-1   New England (2)
5-5   Buffalo
4-6   Miami
2-8   N.Y. Jets

AFC NORTH:
10-0  Pittsburgh (1)
6-4    Baltimore (6)
3-7    Cleveland
2-8    Cincinnati

AFC SOUTH:
6-4   Houston (3)
6-4   Indianapolis (5)
5-5   Jacksonville
5-5   Tennessee

AFC WEST:
5-5   Oakland (4)
5-5   San Diego
4-6   Denver
3-7   Kansas City

PLAYOFF PICTURE AFTER WEEK 11:
*-I am going to pick winners (why not?) up until the championship games.  You can draw your own conclusions from there.  And, since the playoffs can be a bit of a crapshoot, the picks for the playoffs will just based on how I’m feeling that day.

NFC:
Just out: Washington (7-3), New Orleans (6-4), Philadelphia (6-4), Seattle (5-5), Arizona (4-6)

Wild Card Round
#6 Green Bay (7-3) at #3 CAROLINA (7-3)
#5 NEW YORK GIANTS (7-3) at #4 San Francisco (5-5)

Divisional Round
NEW YORK GIANTS at #1 Dallas (7-3)
Carolina at #2 MINNESOTA (7-3)

NFC Championship
New York Giants at Minnesota

AFC:
Just out:  Buffalo (5-5), Jacksonville (5-5), San Diego (5-5), Tennessee (5-5), Denver (4-6)

Wild Card Round
#6 BALTIMORE (6-4) at #3 Houston (6-4)
#5 INDIANAPOLIS (6-4) at #4 Oakland (5-5)

Divisional Round
Baltimore at #1 PITTSBURGH (10-0)
Indianapolis at #2 NEW ENGLAND (9-1)

AFC Championship
New England at Pittsburgh