Bry’s Week-by-Week NFL Preview: Week Twelve

Week Eleven saw the AFC’s elite separate themselves from the pack (Steelers 10-0, Patriots 9-1), while the NFC’s elite still haven’t shown themselves (six teams at 7-3, plus two more, including the Eagles at 6-4).  The western divisions seem pretty bad again this year, as no team in either western division is above .500.  Parity continue to reign in the NFL through 10 games, but maybe Week Twelve will answer some questions.  (As always, winners in CAPS.)

Thursday, November 26 (Thanksgiving Day):
12:30 – GREEN BAY (7-3) at Detroit (1-9)
You would think that, since they play on this day every year, that there would be some sort of advantage for the Lions playing a 12:30 game on Thanksgiving, at home.  But, they never win this game, and recently it hasn’t even been that close.  Oh, and for the record, do not take this game away from Detroit–as bad as they are, it is nice to have traditions, and watching the Lions lose and rooting for whoever plays the Cowboys is one of the better sports traditions we have going–don’t take that away.

4:15 – Oakland (5-5) at DALLAS (7-3)
The Cowboys get the Raiders on Thanksgiving Day.  This may actually be a pretty interesting game to fall asleep on the couch to.  But, in the end, I think the Cowboys are too good to lose to the Raiders at home.  Over/under 2.5 punts that hit the scoreboard in this one.

8:20 – New York Giants (7-3) at DENVER (4-6)
I’m not sure I really like this nightime Thanksgiving game, but who really cares what I think, right?  Either way, I think this might be a tough spot for the G-men.  The Broncos are, despite being, well, bad, are only a game out of the division lead and still have hope.  Plus, I can imagine that a great fan base like Denver would really “come to play” on Thanksgiving night and give the home team a boost.  I like the Broncos to pull the mild upset at home.

Sunday November 29:
1:00 – Miami (4-6) at BUFFALO (5-5)
Maybe the last gasp for one of these teams, I think the Bills should win this game at home.  The fans could be riled up, knowing that their team goes to Toronto next week and Buffalo in late November is never good to the guys from South Florida, even though they have had 10 days to prepare.  The Bills should stay in the playoff mix with a home win this week.

1:00 – Seattle (5-5) at ST. LOUIS (2-8)
This is a game that the Seahawks really should win, but I do not think that they will.  First of all, it’s a 1:00 start for a West Coast team.  Second of all, I don’t think that a Spagnuolo-coached team will quit (at least this early in the season).  There should still be some fight left in the Rams, so I like them to pull off the mild upset here at home.

1:00 – Washington (7-3) at PHILADELPHIA (6-4)
The Redskins, who were the only NFC team at 7-2 drop their second straight and are in serious playoff jeopardy now.  It might be another late-season swoon for the Skins.  While, the Eagles are starting to put it together.  I actually expect the Birds to win this one handily, even though Washington has given them some trouble in recent years.

1:00 – Tampa Bay (2-8) at ATLANTA (2-8)
The surprising battle for last place in the NFC South features the Falcons?  Well, the schedule’s circumstances have not been kind to the Falcons, but they are clearly not a 2-8 team.  The Bucs, on the other hand, may be a 2-8 team.  In Atlanta, this should be an easy win for the Falcons…unless they’ve quit.

1:00 – Arizona (4-6) at TENNESSEE (5-5)
This is a tough spot for the Titans, who have played 4 tough games in a row now, and this one on a short week.  But, their defense, at home, should be able to stop the Cardinals (who are getting hot at the right time again).  I like the Titans, at home, especially at 1:00

1:00 – INDIANAPOLIS (6-4) at Houston (6-4)
No passing of the torch yet.  The Colts should go into Houston and remind the Texans who has been the class of this division for a decade.  The Colts are coming off a tough, physical win in Baltimore, but the Texans are working on a short week after an emotional win over Tennessee on Monday Night.  I like Peyton Manning to win this game himself.

1:00 – CLEVELAND (3-7) at Cincinnati (2-8)
The Bengals have quit on Marvin.  The Browns are still playing hard for Mangini.  I think the Browns can go into Cincinnati and win.

1:00 – Chicago (5-5) at MINNESOTA (7-3)
Another tough loss for the Bears, who had just turned around their season after an 0-3 start.  But, this is a tough spot.  I wonder about the Vikings and the endurance of their quarterback by this point, but their defense is good enough to slow the Bears and AP could run all over their slightly overrated defense.

1:00 – CAROLINA (7-3) at New York Jets (2-8)
The Panthers have ten days to prepare for the Jets and should be able to run the ball down their throats.  I do like the Jets defense, but it could be worn out by now and could give this game away in the second half.  Plus, their offense is probably not going to put up more than 13 points or so.  Take Carolina in a second half comeback win.

4:05 – Kansas City (3-7) at SAN DIEGO (5-5)
This should do it for the Chiefs hopes, even in this bad division.  It is about this time of year that the Chargers wake up and realize that they really do have to play these games to win them.  They should start to take control of this division from here on out, and it starts this week against KC.

4:05 – Jacksonville (5-5) at SAN FRANCISCO (5-5)
They are starting to believe in San Fran right about now.  A big game between two playoff contenders hands the Jags a tough loss out west.  The Niners can smell the division and these are the games that division champs have to win.

8:20 – Pittsburgh (10-0) at BALTIMORE (6-4)
Is there a scarier team for an undefeated Pittsburgh team to face than the overly proud, extremely physical, and horrifyingly hateful Ravens in their stadium in primetime?  I say no.  This is where the undefeated dream almost ended for the Patriots two years ago, and it is where it ends for the Steelers this year.  The Ravens just hate the Steelers so much that this will be their Super Bowl.  They win this game.  Mark it down, as the Ravens are the only team to beat the Patriots this year and now the only team to beat the Steelers.

Monday, November 30:
NEW ENGLAND (9-1) at New Orleans (6-4)
Take the over on this one.  I like the Saints to score in the 30’s against the Pats on Monday Night, but I like the Pats to hit 40 or 50 against the Saints.  There will not be many punts–there probably won’t even be many running plays, for that matter–in this one, as the Patriots should win the shootout and go to 10-1.

To go to Week Thirteen, click here

STANDINGS AFTER WEEK 12:
NFC EAST:
8-3   Dallas (1)
7-4   New York Giants (6)
7-4   Philadelphia
7-4   Washington

NFC NORTH:
8-3     Green Bay (5)
8-3     Minnesota (2)
5-6     Chicago
1-10   Detroit

NFC SOUTH:
8-3   Carolina (3)
6-5   New Orleans
3-8   Atlanta
2-9   Tampa Bay

NFC WEST:
6-5   San Francisco (4)
5-6   Seattle
4-7   Arizona
3-8   St. Louis

AFC EAST:
10-1   New England (1)
6-5     Buffalo
4-7     Miami
2-9     N.Y. Jets

AFC NORTH:
10-1   Pittsburgh (2)
7-4     Baltimore (5)
4-7     Cleveland
2-9     Cincinnati

AFC SOUTH:
7-4   Indianapolis (3)
6-5   Houston
6-5   Tennessee (6)
5-6   Jacksonville

AFC WEST:
6-5   San Diego (4)
5-6   Denver
5-6   Oakland
3-8   Kansas City

PLAYOFF PICTURE AFTER WEEK 12:
*-I am going to pick winners (why not?) up until the championship games.  You can draw your own conclusions from there.  And, since the playoffs can be a bit of a crapshoot, the picks for the playoffs will just based on how I’m feeling that day.

NFC:
Just out:  Philadelphia (7-4), Washington (7-4), New Orleans (6-5), Seattle (5-6)

Wild Card Round
#6 New York Giants (7-4) at #3 CAROLINA (8-3)
#5 GREEN BAY (8-3) at #4 San Francisco (6-5)

Divisional Round
Green Bay at #1 DALLAS (8-3)
CAROLINA  at #2 Minnesota (8-3)

NFC Championship
Carolina at Dallas

AFC:
Just out:  Buffalo (6-5), Houston (6-5), Denver (5-6), Jacksonville (5-6), Oakland (5-6)

Wild Card Round
#6 Tennessee (6-5) at #3 INDIANAPOLIS (7-4)
#5 Baltimore (7-4) at #4 SAN DIEGO (6-5)

Divisional Round
San Diego at #1 NEW ENGLAND (10-1)
Indianapolis at #2 PITTSBURGH (10-1)

AFC Championship
Pittsburgh at New England