Bry’s Week-by-Week NFL Preview: Week Thirteen

Week Twelve featured the end of November games, so Week Thirteen will take us into the final month of the regular season.  The playoffs are starting to take a little shape, but there are still many places up for grabs.  In fact, the only spots that are even close to “safe” are the Pats in the East and the Steelers in the North.  The Birds have won two big games in a row and are right in the thick of it.  Everyone in the NFC East is at least 7-4.  (As usual, winners in CAPS.)

Thursday, December 3:
8:20 – New York Jets (2-9) vs. BUFFALO (6-5), in Toronto
I want to pick against the Bills for selling out their home city, but I think they are a better team than the Jets.  Plus, by this point, the Jets are pretty much done, whereas the Bills are right there with a shot at a playoff appearance for the first time in many years.

Sunday, December 6:
1:00 – St. Louis (3-8) at CHICAGO (5-6)
The Bears really need this game, while the Rams are done.  Throw in the homefield advantage that comes from a December game in Chicago, and this one is a pretty easy call.  Though, if the weather is nice, I do like the Rams offense matched up against the Bears defense, but the weather will probably not be nice.

1:00 – Tampa Bay (2-9) at CAROLINA (8-3)
The Panthers are in serious contention for home-field advantage in the NFC, while the Bucs are in serious contention for, well, nothing.  At this point in the season, this should be an easy win for Carolina.

1:00 – HOUSTON (6-5) at Jacksonville (5-6) *
This game could really go either way.  I am going to go out on a limb and take the Texans, on the road.  I think that the Texans will be in the thick of the playoff race at this point, and I think the Jags will have totally quit on Del Rio, especially after the loss in San Fran last week.  A real toss-up, but I am going to give it to the team that I see with more heart.

1:00 – DENVER (5-6) at Kansas City (3-8) *
Another team that may be packing it up by now is the Chiefs.  The Broncos are still, sort of, in the mix in the AFC, which is the only reason I think they can go into KC and win a game.  Also, the Broncos have had 10 days to prepare for this game after beating the Giants on Thanksgiving.  I’m not totally sold on Denver’s ability to win in a tough place, but I am going to pick them to save their season…temporarily.

1:00 – Tennessee (6-5) at INDIANAPOLIS (7-4)
The Colts have been through a brutal part of their schedule (Houston, New England, Baltimore, Houston again, and now Tennessee) and have proven their mettle.  They pick up another big win here this week, at home against a good Tennessee team.  The Colts just know how to get it done, and they are doing it again in 2009, as they start to take a little control of the AFC South.

1:00 – PHILADELPHIA (7-4) at Atlanta (3-8)
In a homecoming, of sorts, for Michael Vick, the Eagles, as a team, desperately need another win here on the road.  Fortunately, the Falcons are just about ready to pack it in.  The Birds should go down to Atlanta and win in front of crowd that is not that great during good seasons, so don’t expect much from them in 2009.

1:00 – New Orleans (6-5) at WASHINGTON (7-4) *
Both of these teams are in desperate need of a win this week.  It is one of the tougher games to predict during the entire season, but I am going to go with the slightly less talented team at home, whom is just better equipped to play a December game in DC.  If the weather holds out, New Orleans becomes the favorite, but the colder or windier the conditions become, the more of a chance the Skins can win and, for now, hold off another late-season swoon.  If the Skins don’t get this game, they are in a LOT of trouble because the end of their schedule is brutal.

1:00 – Oakland (5-6) at PITTSBURGH (10-1)
The Steelers are not going to lose two in a row, especially when this second game is at home against the Raiders at 1:00.  I don’t care how beat up they might be from the Sunday Night War against Baltimore.

1:00 – DETROIT (1-10) at Cincinnati (2-9)
The Lions are much, much less likely to have completely quit by this point.  Plus, the Lions have 10 days to prepare, and the Bengals will be done.  Marvin Lewis might not survive to Week Fourteen after this home loss to Detroit.

4:05 – SAN DIEGO (6-5) at Cleveland (4-7)
The Browns are playing hard here late in the season, but the Chargers know exactly when to turn it on.  I do not trust the weather in Cleveland in December, but I do trust that Chargers can beat the Browns in a host of different ways.

4:15 – Dallas (8-3) at NEW YORK GIANTS (7-4)
It is December, and you know what that means.  The Cowboys become another team–and not a good one.  And, this year, even if they don’t “swoon” in December, the schedule may give the preception of yet another choke job–one that, this time, might cost Coach Phillips his job.  I don’t really trust the Giants in big games without a go-to weapon in the receiving corps, but I think I trust the Cowboys even loss on the road in December.  Give this big win to the Giants, as the entire NFC East now sits at 8-4.  This might be the Sunday night game, as NBC has the option to flex out the currently scheduled night game.

4:15 – San Francisco (6-5) at SEATTLE (5-6)
The season is on the line, and the Seahawks circle the wagons.  A huge game for supremacy in the NFC West, and you can expect the home crowd to play a big role in this one.  The Seahawks have more experience in big games and a quarterback that can win a game late.  This should be a good one, but expect the Seahawks to win and tie the Niners for the division lead with four games to play.

4:15 – Minnesota (8-3) at ARIZONA (4-7)
That quarterback might be getting tired.  And, they are going to need him in the desert, as the potent Cardinal offense should be able to overcome a great Minnesota defense.  The Cardinals are now, despite playing mediocre to poor football, are now only one game out in their division.

8:20 – New England (10-1) at MIAMI (4-7)
The Dolphins still do play with pride, and they do know how to beat the Patriots.  On life support, the Dolphins, in primetime, pull off the upset of the Patriots, who are operating on a short week.

Monday, December 7:
8:30 – Baltimore (7-4) at GREEN BAY (8-3)
The Ravens are coming off of an emotional, physical win over the hated Pittsburgh Steelers.  This might be time for a letdown.  The Packers, on the other hand, have had 11 days since their Thanksgiving Day game in Detroit.  The Pack watched the Vikings lose on Sunday and should be fired up for this game.  It should be a good one, but I like the Pack to join Carolina as the only two 9-win teams in the NFC.

To go to Week Fourteen, click here

STANDINGS AFTER WEEK 13:
NFC EAST:
8-4   Dallas (6)
8-4   New York Giants (3)
8-4   Philadelphia (5)
8-4   Washington

NFC NORTH:
9-3     Green Bay (1)
8-4     Minnesota
6-6     Chicago
2-10   Detroit

NFC SOUTH:
9-3     Carolina (2)
6-6     New Orleans
3-9     Atlanta
2-10   Tampa Bay

NFC WEST:
6-6   San Francisco (4)
6-6   Seattle
5-7   Arizona
3-9   St. Louis

AFC EAST:
10-2   New England (2)
7-5     Buffalo (5)
5-7     Miami
2-10   N.Y. Jets

AFC NORTH:
11-1   Pittsburgh (1)
7-5     Baltimore (6)
4-8     Cleveland
2-10   Cincinnati

AFC SOUTH:
8-4   Indianapolis (3)
7-5   Houston
6-6   Tennessee
5-7   Jacksonville

AFC WEST:
7-5   San Diego (4)
6-6   Denver
5-7   Oakland
3-9   Kansas City

PLAYOFF PICTURE AFTER WEEK 13:
*-I am going to pick winners (why not?) up until the championship games.  You can draw your own conclusions from there.  And, since the playoffs can be a bit of a crapshoot, the picks for the playoffs will just based on how I’m feeling that day.

NFC:
Just out:  Minnesota (8-4), Washington (8-4), Seattle (6-6), Arizona (5-7)

Wild Card Round
#6 Dallas at #3 NEW YORK GIANTS (8-4)
#5 PHILADELPHIA (8-4) at #4 San Francisco (6-6)

Divisional Round
PHILADELPHIA at #1 Green Bay (9-3)
New York Giants at #2 CAROLINA (9-3)

NFC Championship
Philadelphia at Carolina

AFC:
Just out:  Houston (7-5), Tennessee (6-6)

Wild Card Round
#6 Baltimore (7-5) at #3 INDIANAPOLIS (8-4)
#5 Buffalo (7-5) at #4 SAN DIEGO (7-5)

Divisional Round
San Diego at #1 PITTSBURGH (11-1)
INDIANAPOLIS at #2 New England (10-2)

AFC Championship
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh