Week Fourteen finally saw the Birds take their rightful place atop the NFC East, while Green Bay and Minnesota still battle for the North. San Fran and Carolina still lead their respective divisions. The Steelers and Patriots have both clinched division titles in the AFC and are clearly heading for first-round byes. The Chargers are taking control out West, whil the South shows the Colts one game ahead of Houston and two up on Tennessee. Three games to go, and it is getting tense in cities like New Orleans, Chicago, Buffalo, and the entire NFC East.
Thursday, December 17:
8:20 – INDIANAPOLIS (9-4) at Jacksonville (5-8)
Another season, another double-digit win total for the Indianapolis Colts. And, this win could go a long way to giving them another AFC South title. The Jags are reeling coming off of back-to-back losses to Houston and Miami, and even though they tend to play the Colts tough every year, at this point in the season, they probably won’t need the game quite as much as Indy. Plus, with the short week, give the advantage to someone like Peyton Manning, who is the consummate professional.
Saturday, December 19:
8:20 – Dallas (8-5) at NEW ORLEANS (7-6) *
Another brutal December game for the Cowboys. The Saints are trying to save their season in this one, at home, in primetime. I’m not completely sold on the Cowboys falters in December being anything much more than coincidence up to this point, but after yet another year of hearing about it (and, much more importantly, this brutal schedule), they might start thinking a little too much this time of year. In a tough one to call, give me the Saints at home.
Sunday, December 21:
1:00 – CLEVELAND (4-9) at Kansas City (4-9) *
I believe in Mangini more than I believe in Todd Haley. And, I especially like Mangini with 10 days to prepare. I think that, after 14 weeks of Mangini, this team should start to come together a little more than people think they will. I like the Browns to go in to Kansas City and take a game from the Chiefs, that really could go either way.
1:00 – Atlanta (3-10) at NEW YORK JETS (3-10) *
The battle of possibly the two most disappointing teams of 2009, and the Jets will take it at home. The Falcons have to be beside themselves with all the expectations coming into the season. The Jets, on the other hand, may be able to chalk this season up to a rookie head coach and a rookie quarterback getting their sea legs. I like Sanchez to start to play better by this week, and the Rex Ryan defense should still have some juice left in the tank. Trust me, if I just had to give you a win-loss guess for the Falcons, it would not be nearly this bad, from the looks of everything. I just think that, as the schedule plays out, their season will snowball, culminating in this embarrassing loss to the Jets. These are the things that happen in the 16-game NFL season. Things tend to get out of hand, at times, and you end up with really bad seasons.
1:00 – Miami (6-7) at TENNESSEE (7-6)
This should do it for the hopes of the Dolphins to go back to the playoffs. The Titans are still alive with a big home victory. I just like the Titans, with their backs against the wall, to pull off the must-win.
1:00 – San Francisco (7-6) at PHILADELPHIA (9-4)
Yes, the Eagles are coming off of a big, emotional win in the Meadowlands Sunday night, but the 49ers are coming off a big win over Arizona on Monday night. Plus, it’s another West Coast team at 1:00. I love the Eagles here–another 10-win season, and a step closer to another NFC East title.
1:00 – New England (11-2) at BUFFALO (7-6) *
The Bills are coming off of just a terrible loss at Kansas City, while the Pats are coming off of a physical win over Carolina. The Bills entire season rides on this game–at home. It really could go either way, but I like the Bills to rally the troops and get a big win to stave off elimination.
1:00 – ARIZONA (5-8) at Detroit (2-11) *
The Cardinals cannot be done just yet, can they? Their division is wide open, so they are still very much alive. But, it is at 1:00. And, it is on 6-days preparation. But, if there is any pride left in the Cards from last season’s Super Bowl appearance, they have to win in Detroit this week. The dome will help their offense, but I’m still not sure they can do it. But, it’s the Lions–they have to, right?
1:00 – Green Bay (9-4) at PITTSBURGH (12-1)
The Pack is coming off a tough loss to the hated Bears, while the Steelers have had 10 days to prepare for Green Bay. At 12-1, they have their sights set on homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, so this is a big game. The Packers also need the game to keep their playoff push going, but the Steelers are too good at home.
1:00 – Chicago (7-6) at BALTIMORE (8-5) *
In just a HUGE inter-conference matchup, I like the Ravens to force Cutler into several interceptions and put a serious dent into the Bears playoff hopes. This game could go either way, but the Ravens seem to step it up when they need it, and this game is a perfect example. Give me the Ravens, at home.
1:00 – Houston (8-5) at ST. LOUIS (3-10)
The Texans have never had a winning season. They are one win away from clinching a winning season. They are still young and inexperienced. I think the pressure gets to them this week, and they falter in St. Louis. The Rams do still have some talent on the offensive side of the ball, which can exploit an average Houston defense. The Texans still have some work to do–this loss is a big one.
4:05 – OAKLAND (6-7) at Denver (6-7)
An elimination game that I think will be won by the better team. Ya, I said it: I think that the Oakland Raiders are a better football team than the Denver Broncos in 2009. And, I think that the Raiders prove it this week, as they go into Denver and get a must-win, evening their record at 7-7, and keeping them breathing in the AFC Wild Card race, and maybe even the West title.
4:05 – Cincinnati (2-11) at SAN DIEGO (8-5)
Unfortunately for the Raiders, the Chargers get a breeze of a game this week, as they host the Bengals. An easy win for the Chargers gives them a 2-game lead with two to play out West.
4:15 – Tampa Bay (2-11) at SEATTLE (6-7)
The Seahawks draw back even with the 49ers in the NFC West, as they have a nice cushy game in Week Fifteen. The Bucs are finished, at 2-11, and the Seahawks will not drop this game at home.
8:20 – Minnesota (9-4) at CAROLINA (9-4) *
The toughest game, by far, to pick this week is the probable Sunday Night affair between two of the NFC’s elite teams. The Panthers are reeling from a loss at New England, while the Vikings are flying high after beating Cincinnati at home. The Vikings might be looking ahead to a Monday Night date in Chicago next week, while the Panthers may have the Giants on their minds, as they play in the Meadowlands next week. I think the aging quarterback in Minnesota may be extremely worn down by now, but the Vikings defense should be able to put pressure on Delhomme and slow down the Panthers running game. I have gone back and forth about 30 times on this pick, but I am finally going to go with the home team with the better offensive gameplan. When in doubt, go with the home team and the better coach.
Monday, December 21:
8:30 – New York Giants (8-5) at WASHINGTON (8-5) *
Another game that is really tough to predict, but I am going to go with the Redskins. I don’t think people are giving them enough credit for their rock-solid defense and strong running game. Two ingredients to a decent team, especially at home in December. The addition of Haynesworth in the middle of the line should give them enough of a defensive identity to slow the Giants running game, and the Skins solid secondary should take care of a bad Giants receiving corps. I like the Skins to get a HUGE win at home on Monday Night.
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STANDINGS AFTER WEEK 15:
NFC EAST:
10-4 Philadelphia (2)
9-5 Washington (6)
8-6 Dallas
8-6 New York Giants
NFC NORTH:
9-5 Green Bay (5)
9-5 Minnesota (3)
7-7 Chicago
2-12 Detroit
NFC SOUTH:
10-4 Carolina (1)
8-6 New Orleans
3-11 Atlanta
2-12 Tampa Bay
NFC WEST:
7-7 San Francisco (4)
7-7 Seattle
6-8 Arizona
4-10 St. Louis
AFC EAST:
11-3 New England (2)
8-6 Buffalo
6-8 Miami
4-10 N.Y. Jets
AFC NORTH:
13-1 Pittsburgh (1)
9-5 Baltimore (5)
5-9 Cleveland
2-12 Cincinnati
AFC SOUTH:
10-4 Indianapolis (3)
8-6 Houston
8-6 Tennessee (6)
5-9 Jacksonville
AFC WEST:
9-5 San Diego (4)
7-7 Oakland
6-8 Denver
4-10 Kansas City
PLAYOFF PICTURE AFTER WEEK 15:
*-I am going to pick winners (why not?) up until the championship games. You can draw your own conclusions from there. And, since the playoffs can be a bit of a crapshoot, the picks for the playoffs will just based on how I’m feeling that day.
NFC:
Eliminated: St. Louis (4-10), Atlanta (3-11), Detroit (2-12), Tampa Bay (2-12)
Still Alive: Dallas (8-6), New Orleans (8-6), New York Giants (8-6), Chicago* (7-7), Seattle (7-7), Arizona (6-8)
*–because of apparent tiebreak losses to Minnesota, Green Bay, Seattle, and San Francisco, among others, it would take a near miracle for the Bears to make it, at this point, but technically, it can happen.
Wild Card Round
#6 Washington (9-5) at #3 MINNESOTA (9-5)
#5 GREEN BAY (9-5) at #4 San Francisco (7-7)
Divisional Round
Green Bay at #1 CAROLINA (10-4)
Minnesota at #2 PHILADELPHIA (10-4)
NFC Championship
Philadelphia at Carolina
AFC:
Eliminated: Miami* (6-8), Cleveland (5-9), Jacksonville (5-9), Kansas City (4-10), New York Jets (4-10), Cincinnati (2-12)
Still Alive: Buffalo (8-6), Houston (8-6), Oakland (7-7), Denver** (6-8)
*–losing the tiebreaker to Tennessee means that the Dolphins are eliminated
**–because of various tiebreakers, the Broncos have a very, very slim chance to squeek in at 8-8
Wild Card Round
#6 TENNESSEE (8-6) at #3 Indianapolis (10-4)
#5 Baltimore (9-5) at #4 SAN DIEGO (9-5)
Divisional Round
San Diego at #1 PITTSBURGH (12-1)
Tennessee at #2 NEW ENGLAND (11-2)
AFC Championship
New England at Pittsburgh
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