Bry’s Week-by-Week NFL Preview: Week Sixteen

Week Fifteen put the NFL playoff picture into a little bit better focus, but there are still a lot of questions to be answered.  The only things that are clinched are the Steelers and Patriots in their respective divisions, and that the Steelers will have a first-round bye.  Everything else is yet to be determined.  Though, by the end of Week Sixteen, a lot of those questions will be answered.  This week, Carolina, San Diego, and Indy can all clinch their divisions simply with wins.  The Eagles can clinch with a win and a Redskins loss.  Carolina, Philly, and Indy all clinch playoff berths with wins.  Chicago and Denver will all be eliminated with losses–and probably even if they win.  Arizona and Oakland are, somehow, still breathing in their divisions, and therefore need wins.  The Saints, Giants, and Cowboys are all, surprisingly, a game out of the playoffs, at the start of this week.  All these questions…answers, to follow:

Christmas Day (Friday):
7:30 – San Diego (9-5) at TENNESSEE (8-6) *
This is a great Christmas Day matchup between two very good teams, both still vying for playoff positioning.  It is hard to say which is worse on Christmas Day–travelling away from home the night before or having to leave your family on Christmas morning to go play a game.  I think the travelling is slightly worse, but I’m not sure.  Either way, I think that coaching plays a big role in games like this and that is why I am going to go with the Titans in a close one on Christmas Day.

Sunday, December 27:
1:00 – Tampa Bay (2-12) at NEW ORLEANS (8-6)
A home game with a bad team, whose season is over, two days after Christmas is exactly what the Saints need in this must-win situation.  This should be an easy 9th win for New Orleans, keeping them in the hunt going into the season’s final week.

1:00 – Buffalo (8-6) at ATLANTA (3-11)
And, you can stick a fork in the Bills, as they go down and lose to the Falcons in Atlanta.  One last gasp of pride from the Dirty Birds pretty much ends the playoff dreams of Buffalo, once again.

1:00 – Denver (6-8) at PHILADELPHIA (10-4)
The Broncos needed a miracle at this point, but it’s moot now, as they have to go into Philly, in December, with the Eagles flying high.  The Birds go to 11-4, and only need one more win (or a Washington loss) to clinch yet another NFC East crown.

1:00 – HOUSTON (8-6) at Miami (6-8) *
The Dolphins, through various complex tiebreakers were eliminated last week, following their loss in Tennessee.  The Texans are still very much alive and, with this win, will have clinched the first winning season in team history.  They just matchup pretty well against the Dolphins, though this was a tough one to predict, but I like the heart of Houston and think that they will get this much-coveted 9th win of the season, putting them in position, heading into their Week Seventeen matchup with New England.

1:00 – Seattle (7-7) at GREEN BAY (9-5)
The Seahawks play their SIXTH game at 1:00, and lose yet another here in Green Bay.  I don’t trust this dome team in late December in Lambeau Field, at 10am, their time.  Take the Pack to get their 10th win and put some pressure on the rest of the NFC.

1:00 – Carolina (10-4) at NEW YORK GIANTS (8-6)
The Giants do the Eagles a favor in beating the Panthers this week, but they do themselves a much bigger favor, as they really need this win.  Even though they are coming off a short week, the Giants just have the perfect combination of defense, rushing attack, and experience to win–and win handily–a home game in late December against a team like Carolina–especially when their seasons depends on it.  The G-men stay alive with a big win.  Carolina fails to clinch the a playoff spot, the division, or the bye (or possibly home-field advantage) with this loss.  Now, they will have to play everyone in next week.

1:00 – Oakland (7-7) at CLEVELAND (5-9)
So, San Diego lost on Christmas Day, but this loss by the Raiders clinches the division for the Chargers.  The Raiders are decent and really need this game, but the Browns are still playing hard, are at home in brutal Cleveland in late December, and the game is at 1:00 for a West Coast team.  The Raiders made a nice run and still have a chance at .500, but this loss coupled with the Tennessee win, eliminates the Raiders from the playoffs.

1:00 – Jacksonville (5-9) at NEW ENGLAND (11-3)
The Pats still have an outside shot at the #1 seed, while the Jags are done.  The Patriots, in snowy Foxborough, should cruise to this victory over their Sunshine State foes.  And, since they beat Indianapolis in Week Ten, this win clinches the first-round bye for Tom Brady and Company.

1:00 – KANSAS CITY (4-10) at Cincinnati (2-12) *
I have no confidence in either of these teams, but by Week Sixteen, it is just going to come down to who is more likely to have completely quit on their coach.  And, I say that the Bengals are the most likely team in the NFL to have quit on their coach.  I like the Chiefs to go into Cincy and get the win.

1:00 – Baltimore (9-5) at PITTSBURGH (13-1)
The only team that has beaten the Steelers thus far has a lot at stake here in Heinz Field, as they are still fighting for a playoff spot.  However, the Steelers know that one win clinches them homefield advantage, and they have pretty much owned the Ravens in recent memory.  I like the Steelers here, at home, in a bloodbath of pure hatred.

4:05 – St. Louis (4-10) at ARIZONA (6-8)
Say it ain’t so.  The Cardinals are still kicking–barely.  A home win this week over an improving Rams team puts them at 7-8 and right in the thick of the NFC West race (unless San Fran wins today, then they are eliminated).  The Rams are getting better, but they don’t have anything to play for, while Arizona still–somehow–has visions of defending their NFC title.

4:05 – Detroit (2-12) at SAN FRANCISCO (7-7)
Just what the doctor ordered for an inexperienced team trying to win a division–the Detroit Lions, at home.  There will probably be some scoreboard watching, at least in the first quarter, as the Seahawks are playing at 1:00.  If Seattle loses and San Fran wins, the Niners, shockingly, clinch the NFC West.  I like them to see that result and come out firing.  The Niners win the game and the division this week.

4:15 – INDIANAPOLIS (10-4) at New York Jets (4-10)
The Jets are playing better, and Mark Sanchez is learning the ropes.  But, the Colts are still in a division race and should win this game to clinch yet another AFC South title.  Also, with the Pats win and Chargers loss, this win for the Colts locks them into the #3 seed, so Peyton & Co. can take the week off to prepare for the Wild Card Round.

8:20 – DALLAS (8-6) at Washington (9-5)
The hated rivals go at it with everything on the line.  And, the Cowboys step up.  This is going to be an enormous game, but I like Dallas to come through and win it, keeping their season alive, and putting a big dent into Washington’s playoff hopes.  This loss for Washington clinches the NFC East for the Eagles.

Monday, December 28:
8:30 – Minnesota (9-5) at CHICAGO (7-7)
Technically, the Bears are not eliminated from the the Wild Card race and, even if they were, they do not like the Vikings and would love to hand them a big loss.  The Vikings defense is special, but their QB may be struggling by this point.  I like the Bears to pull off the upset, at home.  Then again, this Bears win is good for their true hated rival–the Packers–as the Vikings loss clinches the NFC North title for the Pack.

STANDINGS AFTER WEEK 16:
##-clinched homefield advantage
#-clinched first-round bye
**-clinched division
*-clinched playoff spot

NFC EAST:
11-4   Philadelphia (1)**
9-6     Dallas (6)
9-6     New York Giants
9-6     Washington

NFC NORTH:
10-5   Green Bay (2)**
9-6     Minnesota
8-7     Chicago
2-13   Detroit

NFC SOUTH:
10-5   Carolina (3)
9-6     New Orleans (5)
4-11   Atlanta
2-13   Tampa Bay

NFC WEST:
8-7     San Francisco (4)**
7-8     Arizona
7-8     Seattle
4-11   St. Louis

AFC EAST:
12-3   New England (2)#
8-7     Buffalo
6-9     Miami
4-11   N.Y. Jets

AFC NORTH:
14-1   Pittsburgh (1)##
9-6     Baltimore
6-9     Cleveland
2-13   Cincinnati

AFC SOUTH:
11-4   Indianapolis (3)**
9-6     Houston (5)
9-6     Tennessee (6)
5-10     Jacksonville

AFC WEST:
9-6     San Diego (4)**
7-8      Oakland
6-9     Denver
5-10   Kansas City

PLAYOFF PICTURE AFTER WEEK 16:
*-I am going to pick winners (why not?) up until the championship games.  You can draw your own conclusions from there.  And, since the playoffs can be a bit of a crapshoot, the picks for the playoffs will just based on how I’m feeling that day.

NFC:
Eliminated:  Arizona (7-8), Seattle (7-8), Atlanta (4-11), St. Louis (4-11), Detroit (2-13), Tampa Bay (2-13)

Still Alive:  Minnesota (9-6), New York Giants (9-6), Washington (9-6), Chicago (8-7)

Wild Card Round
#6 DALLAS (9-6) at #3 Carolina (9-6)
#5 NEW ORLEANS (9-6) at #4 San Francisco (8-7)

Divisional Round
Dallas at #1 PHILADELPHIA (11-4)
New Orleans at #2 GREEN BAY (10-5)

NFC Championship
Green Bay at Philadelphia

AFC:
Eliminated:  Oakland (7-8), Cleveland (6-9), Denver (6-9), Miami (6-9), Jacksonville (5-10), Kansas City (5-10), New York Jets (4-11), Cincinnati (2-13)

Still Alive:  Baltimore (9-6), Buffalo (8-7)

Wild Card Round
#6 TENNESSEE (9-6) at #3 Indianapolis (11-4)
#5 Houston (9-6) at #4 SAN DIEGO (9-6)

Divisional Round
San Diego at #1 PITTSBURGH (12-1)
Tennessee at #2 NEW ENGLAND (11-2)

AFC Championship
New England at Pittsburgh