BSB NFL Playoff Challenge: Divisional Round Preview

Nine contestents started the BSB NFL Playoff Challenge, but after the Wild Card Weekend’s action, only seven remain with a possibility of winning the whole thing.  But, surprisingly, it is not the two with the lowest point totals who have been eliminated from title contention.  As we ran down earlier in the week in a post of all the scenarios for the challenge, Alexi, O’Neill, and Scott, who had the three lowest point totals after the first round, are still alive to win the whole thing, if things break the right way for them.

Anyway, it’s not just first place that we’re all playing for, so let’s preview the Divisional Round games and how they impact all nine entries.  We have listed below the impacts of each game.

Then, we listed each entry and their best possible scores for this round (strictly by points, not in relation to others) and their best possible final scores.  Then, we put a figure called percent chance of winning, which was calculated by the number of different scenarios that has that entry holding at least a share of the lead at the end.  However, this number has to be taken with the caveat that it was done under the assumption that every game from here on out is 50-50 between the two victors (in other words, the assumption is that a New Orleans-Indy Super Bowl is just as likely as a Jets-Cards).  Any given Sunday, right?

We start with each game, listing, in order, which entries will be most affected.

Arizona at New Orleans:
10 O’Neill (NO 11 – Zona 1)
9 Alexi (NO 12 – Zona 3)
8 David (NO 11 – Zona 3)
8 Josh (NO 11 – Zona 3)
7 Waters (NO 12 – Zona 5)
6 Ina (NO 8 – Zona 2)
6 Scott (NO 10 – Zona 4)
5 Bry (NO 7 – Zona 2)
1 Doogan (NO 8 – Zona 7)

Baltimore at Indianapolis:
10 David (Indy 12 – B’more 2)
10 Scott (Indy 12 – B’more 2)
10 Josh (Indy 12 – B’more 2)
9 Doogan (Indy 12 – B’more 3)
9 O’Neill (Indy 12 – B’more 3)
7 Ina (Indy 11 – B’more 4)
7 Alexi (Indy 8 – B’more 1)
5 Bry (Indy 11 – B’more 6)
2 Waters (Indy 10 – B’more 8 )

Dallas at Minnesota:
9 Bry (Dallas 10 – Minn 1)
7 Ina (Dallas 10 – Minn 3)
6 Doogan (Dallas 10 – Minn 4)
6 Waters (Dallas 7 – Minn 1)
5 Alexi (Minn 10 – Dallas 5)
3 Josh (Dallas 10 – Minn 7)
2 O’Neill (Minn 8 – Dallas 6)
1 David (Dallas 7 – Minn 6)
1 Scott (Minn 9 – Dallas 8 )

N.Y. Jets at San Diego:
11 Ina (SD 12 – Jets 1)
10 Doogan (SD 11 – Jets 1)
10 Scott (SD 11 – Jets 1)
9 Alexi (SD 11 – Jets 2)
7 Waters (SD 11 – Jets 4)
7 Bry (SD 12 – Jets 5)
5 David (SD 10 – Jets 5)
5 O’Neill (SD 10 – Jets 5)
4 Josh (SD 9 – Jets 5)

Waters:
First Place, 24 points

Best Possible After Divisional Round:  64
Best Possible Final Score:  158

Percent Chance of Winning:  35%

Thoughts: 
Waters not only won the Wild Card round, but he is has the most title chances.  If New Orleans wins the Super Bowl, there is only one way for him not to win.  If Baltimore wins the Super Bowl, there is no way he will not win.  But, he does have one land mine to avoid out there–Minnesota.  He gave them a 1, so if they advance, he could lose a lot of ground.  With Baltimore at 8, he is actually much better off if they knock off the Colts, even though he has 10 points in the Colts.

Bry:
Second Place, 23 points

Best Possible After Divisional Round:  63
Best Possible Final Score:  155

Percent Chance of Winning:  13%

Thoughts:
Bry’s title chances are almost exclusively limited to Super Bowl titles by either San Diego or Dallas with other factors.  However, he does have a couple fluke scenarios where he would win with a Jets Super Bowl title.  This week, Bry, like Waters, desperately needs to avoid a Minnesota victory.  He also has New Orleans rather low, so even though he has nothing invested in the Cardinals, an Arizona victory might not be such a bad thing for his entry.  He’s also looking for a B’more upset because he has them at 6.

Doogan:
Third Place, 21 points

Best Possible After Divisional Round:  62
Best Possible Final Score:  154

Percent Chance of Winning:  21%

Thoughts:
As we knew from the very beginning, Doogan’s chances are completely dependent on the Cardinals.  There are only two possible scenarios of Doogan winning it all without a Cards win this week (a tie with Josh if Dallas  and Indy meet in the SB after beating NO and SD in the Championship Games).  So, Doogan’s fate lies in the Cardinals.

Josh:
Fourth Place, 20 points

Best Possible After Divisional Round:  62
Best Possible Final Score:  156

Percent Chance of Winning:  21%

Thoughts:
Josh is actually in a pretty good position to win this thing.  He netted enough points in the first round and put enough faith in the top seeds, so that he will be the one standing if the top seeds advance.  He still has his top four point totals still alive, and none of them play each other, so if it goes his way (which would only require the home teams to win except for Dallas), he will have 9, 10, 11, and 12 left in the final four.

Ina:
Fifth Place (tie), 17 points

Best Possible After Divisional Round:  58
Best Possible Final Score:  150

Percent Chance of Winning:  0%

Thoughts:
Ina had a decent performance and will probably finish pretty high, but has been mathematically eliminated from title contention.  She has the biggest possible single-game implication this week with her 12-team, SD, playing her 1-team, NYJ.  She does have some big swings in the other games, as well, so this is a big week for Ina.

David:
Fifth Place (tie), 17 points

Best Possible After Divisional Round:  57
Best Possible Final Score:  151

Percent Chance of Winning:  0%

Thoughts:
David, like Ina, is mathematically eliminated, even though he had a decent week.  The big game for him this week is Indy (12) vs. B’more (2).  David should be able to finish pretty high, but he will not be the first BSB NFL Playoff Challenge Champion.

Scott:
Seventh Place, 16 points

Best Possible After Divisional Round:  58
Best Possible Final Score:  150

Percent Chance of Winning:  6%

Thoughts:
Scott has one of those well-rounded entries, where he’s in play with a variety of combinations.  Scott, like Josh, has his top four point totals all still alive and not playing one another this week.  Like Josh, if Dallas wins in Minnesota and the other home teams win, his final four will be his top four teams.

O’Neill:
Eighth Place, 15 points

Best Possible After Divisional Round:  56
Best Possible Final Score:  150

Percent Chance of Winning:  4%

Thoughts:
O’Neill, despite a difficult first round, is still alive to win this thing.  However, all his eggs have now been put in the Minnesota basket.  If the Vikings fall this week, O’Neill’s title hopes will be gone.  He also needs a New Orleans win this week because he has Arizona at 1.

Alexi:
Ninth Place, 11 points

Best Possible After Divisional Round:  52
Best Possible Final Score:  146

Percent Chance of Winning:  8.6%

Thoughts:
And, in the most interesting situation, Alexi, who had only one point more than the lowest mathematically possible score in the first round, still has a chance to win the whole thing.  And, the chances are not all that remote, either.  And, what is even more interesting is that Alexi (a die-hard Ravens fan who obviously had no confidence in the home team) is now actually counting on the Ravens, the team to which he gave a 1.  This is because he only had the Colts at 8, while seven other entries had them at 11 or 12 and the other had them 10.  So, a Colts loss would be huge for Alexi’s title chances, even though it means his 1-team advances.  He also needs Minnesota to go to the Super Bowl to win, and all his title scenarios but one have the Vikes winning it all.  So, obviously, with a bad Wild Card performance, Alexi needs a lot to break his way, but it’s not at all out of the question that he will pull off a miraculous comeback to win this thing.