Two Rounds in the Books in Melbourne

Well, the first two round of the 2010 major tennis season have been completed and it is shaping up to be another great season on the men’s tour.  Let’s take a look at the goings-on in Melbourne so far with a bit of a third-round preview and then more of a look-ahead to this weekend’s Round of 16, as we will pick the 8 players that we think we still be standing after the next two rounds of play.

Federer Bracket – Top
(1) Roger Federer vs. (31) Albert Montanes
Federer, who is still working on one of the most amazing streaks in sports (21 straight Grand Slam semifinals), just does not lose early in a major.  He did, interestingly enough, drop his first set of this tournament to a rather tough unseeded player, Igor Andreev, but then turned it on and won in 4.  He then swept right through Victor Hanescu in the Second Round.  Federer’s third round opponent, Albert Montanes, won in a walkover in Round 1, but needed all of five sets in Round 2 to knock off Frenchman Stephane Robert.  Montanes, not commonly a seeded player, now has the biggest match of his life against Federer in the Third Round.

(22) Lleyton Hewitt vs. Marcos Baghdatis
Probably the Third Round match that we here at BSB are most looking forward to.  Not only does it involve the great Lleyton Hewitt (my favorite all-time tennis player), but it also involves one of the most charismatic and charming players of our generation, the Cyprian Marcos Baghdatis.  Baghdatis, after dispatching Paolo Lorenzi in straights in the First Round, got here with an epic 5-set win in the Second Round over 17-seeded David Ferrer (another BSB favorite, by the way).  Lleyton, on the other hand, had a couple of easy victories along the way, crushing Ricardo Hochevar in the First Round and knocking off young American Donald Young in straight sets in the Second Round.  Hewitt is playing great tennis in front of an adoring fan base, but Baghdatis is tough to beat anywhere.  This one is must-see tennis.

BSB’s Prediction
Clearly, we are going to take Federer to handle Montanes in straight sets in the first matchup of this part of the draw, but the other one is a bit tougher to predict.  We are going to go with Hewitt because, well, how could I not pick him?  But, with some objectivity, I would say that the 5-set marathon with Ferrer probably has the aching Baghdatis a bit fatigued.  We will take Hewitt in a black-and-blue 4-set war.  And, if Baghdatis brings his A-game, Hewitt will need everything in his tank, which will probably leave him without the necessary ammunition against the World’s #1.  Not to mention that Federer has absolutely owned Hewitt for many years now, so we are going to take Federer over Hewitt in 4 sets.

Federer Bracket – Bottom
(9) Fernando Verdasco vs. Stefan Koubek
The 9th-seeded Verdasco lost his first set of the tournament, but has won six straight since then, cruising in a Second Round win over Igor Sergeyev, 6-1, 6-2, 6-2.  Koubek caught a bit of a break when, after a 5-set First Round victory over American Rajeev Ram, he watched unseeded Ivan Dodiq take out 23-seed Juan-Carlos Ferrero in a 5-set war of their own.  Koubek seemed the fresher player in Round 2 and beat Dodiq in straights.  Now, he gets his first big test of the tourney, facing a top 10 player in Verdasco, who is really playing the best tennis of his career.

(6) Nikolai Davydenko vs. (30) Juan Monaco
The Professional.  That is Nikolai Davydenko.  He plays a ton of tournaments and always seems to go pretty far, without really being a true contender.  Well, he is well on his way again, as his consistency and balance is such a great recipe against non-elite players.  Davydenko only lost 9 games in his first two matches against unseeded players, so he enters this match fresh.  On the other hand, Juan Monaco, after winning in straights in Round 1, had to battle back from two sets down in the Second Round against a tough opponent, Michael Llodra.  Monaco won the third set in a tiebreaker and then went on to win sets 4 and 5 to get himself to the Third Round, matching his best ever result here at the Australian.  Monaco did get to the Round of 16 in both the French and US Opens in 2007, so he’s vying to equal his best ever Grand Slam result.

BSB’s Prediction
We like Verdasco in an easy straight-set win in the first match, which would make it 5 straight Grand Slams in the Round of 16 for the Spaniard.  And, not as easily, but still in straights, we believe that Davydenko will use his experience at this stage to knock of Monaco.  This would set up one of the better Round of 16 matches between #6 Davydenko and #9 Verdasco.  Here, we are going to take the mild upset and go with Fernando Verdasco to surprise Davydenko and move into the Quarterfinals–we’ll call it a four-setter.

Djokovic Bracket – Top
(3) Novak Djokovic vs. Denis Istomin
Watch out, Novak, this one could be dangerous.  I know that this young Uzbek is ranked exactly 100 places lower than you in the world rankings, but he is just getting his career going and is gaining experience and confidence with every step.  Istomin, in his first full year on the tour, won 4 Grand Slam matches last year, including reaching the Third Round of the US Open.  He also smoked 32nd-seeded Jeremy Chardy in the First Round here this year and then followed that up with a straight-set win over Michael Berrer in the Second Round.  He is clearly playing the best tennis of his young career.  Djokovic, on the other hand, never seems to do well when there is any adversity, and the Australian heat is burning this week.  Novak struggled to beat Marco Chuidelli in the Second Round because of the heat.  So, if this match is played in the middle of the day, Istomin has a real shot at pulling off what would be the biggest win of his young career.

(20) Mikhail Youzhny vs. Lukasz Kubot
Youzhny, another solid, consistent pro, had to come back from two sets down to beat veteran Frenchman Richard Gasquet in the First Round, but he bounced back nicely, with a smooth 6-2, 6-1, 6-1 Second Round win over Jan Hajek.  Kubot, the young Pole, got a break in the Second Round when he got to face Santiago Giraldo instead of 16th-seeded Tommy Robredo.  Kubot beat Giraldo in four set, giving him his second Third Round Grand Slam result (2006 US Open).  So, here in a spot where it could have been Youzhny-Robredo, it’s actually Youzhny-Kubot.

BSB’s Prediction
We wanted to pull the trigger on an Istomin upset of Djokovic, but we just couldn’t do it.  We will take Djokovic, though we do expect him to struggle, probably dropping a set, maybe two.  In the end, however, he is just a far better player, at this stage in their careers, than Istomin.  In the other one, we like Youzhny to advance pretty handily over Kubot.  That sets up a Round of 16 match between Djokovic and Youzhny, and we are going to pull the trigger this time.  BSB is going out on a limb and predicting that the 27-year old Russian will regain his ’07-08 form (when he reached as high as #8 in the world) and upset Novak Djokovic in the Round of 16.

Djokovic Bracket – Bottom
(10) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. (18) Tommy Haas
Along with the Hewitt-Baghdatis match (and Cilic-Wawrinka, which comes later), this is probably one of thebest two or three Third Round matchups in this year’s tournament.  And, with the way the draw is playing out, this one might have the greatest ramifications for the later stages of the tournament.  That is because, if Djokovic does go out before the Quarters, then the winner of this match will be the highest remaining seed in this entire bracket and be favored to reach the semifinals.  These two have had two very different roads to get here so far.  Tsonga has cruised, winning both matches in straight sets and not really being threatened by either opponent.  Haas, on the other hand, was threatened in both his matches.  He was down a set and a break in the First Round against Simon Greul, but came back to win.  Then, in the Second Round, he dropped the first and fourth sets to Janko Tipsarevic, before prevailing 6-3 in the fifth.  Now, he has to wake back up his aging knees and battle a well-rested, highly-confident Tsonga.

(26) Nicholas Almagro vs. Alejandro Falla
The 26-year old Colombian, Alejandro Falla, turned pro in 2000, but he has now officially reached uncharted territory.  He has never been this far in a major, and even before this result, had never been as highly ranked (77) as he is right now.  But, he is playing like an old vet.  He handled Brazilian veteran, Marcos Daniel, in straight sets in the First Round, and then knocked off Marcel Granoliers in straight sets in the Second Round.  But, this result did not come without a bit of fortune, as he was slated to meet 8th-seeded Robin Soderling in the Second Round, but Granoliers pulled off the biggest First Round upset in coming back from two sets down to knock off last year’s breakout, Soderling.  Now, Falla is one win away from the Round of 16, and he may have gotten even more fortune.  Nicolas Almagro, his opponent for the Third Round, has to be exhausted.  The first set he played this tournament, against Xavier Malisse, went to 15-13 in the tiebreak, before Almagro won it.  He then won the second set also, but dropped the third and fourth.  In the fifth set, he held on to win 8-6 and move on.  Needing a quick victory, Almagro won the first two sets against Benjamin Becker, but Becker responded with wins in the next two sets, and Almagro was heading to yet another fifth set.  He pulled this one out, 6-3 and now he’s moving on to face Falla.

BSB’s Prediction
Here at BSB, we love Tommy Haas, but Tsonga is too rested and, probably, just too good for Haas right now.  We think Tsonga will win, but it won’t be easy.  Haas is a fighter and may take to 5, but, in the end, Tsonga should win the match and set himself up for a possible run to another Australian Open semi.  In the other match, we are going with the fresh legs.  This heat is brutal and for Almagro to have played two marathon matches, he might not have the stuff to survive another test.  Falla is playing well and with confidence, and we hesitantly are predicting another win here in Melbourne.  However, no matter who survives the Almagro-Falla match, the winner of the Tsonga-Haas match (predictably, Tsonga) should advance to the Quarters.  We are taking Tsonga out of this part of the draw.

Del Potro Bracket – Top
(7) Andy Roddick vs. Feliciano Lopez
So far, so good for Roddick, who has had a history of early exits Down Under.  But, this year, he has taken care of business with straight set wins over two unseeded players in the first two rounds.  His Third Round opponent is not who everyone expected, but is, at the same time, not at all a surprise.   Feliciano Lopez, a solid veteran player, took care of Pablo Cuevas in the First Round and then won a hard-fought win over Rainer Schuettler in four sets in the Second Round.  The disappoinment, for the Americans, in this tournament so far, is the First Round exit by 25th-seeded Sam Querrey to Schuettler.  Querrey has been playing very well lately, but he ran into a smart, veteran player who took him out.  The Americans were looking forward to a Roddick-Querrey Third Round matchup, but instead they get the Spaniard, Lopez.

(11) Fernando Gonzalez vs. Evgeny Korolev
Gonzo, as he is called, has transformed his career from a guy with a lot of talent and no consistency to a guy with a lot of talent and just flat-out gets results.  Gonzalez needed four sets in a First Round win over Olivier Rochus, but handled Marcel Ilhan in straights in the Second Round.  Korolev, who is still only 21 years old, is really starting to put it together.  He has two straight-set wins so far this tournament, including an impressive performance in the Second Round against 21-seed Tomas Berdych.  He has a real test in Gonzo this round, but maybe this is the breakout performance that Korolev needs to assert himself as a real contender on the men’s circuit.

BSB’s Prediction
Lopez is an interesting character and, oftentimes fun to watch, but Roddick should have no trouble with him in the Third Round–probably in straights.  And, as bright as the future may be for Korolev, his best-ever Grand Slam result is probably going to end here, as we are predicting a straight-set win Gonzalez victory.  These two results will set up, what might be, the most anticipated Round of 16 match, between two guys who know each other well and are not afraid to pound forehands at each other, Roddick and Gonzalez.  A lot of the advantage of this match may depend on whether or not this is slated as a night match or whether it is during the day.  It will probably be during the day, because neither of these two have a top-5 seed.  And, in the heat of the day, the guy who can win more free points on his serve (Roddick) will probably be in a better position to last a long, grueling match.  This one is really tough to call, but we are going to pick Roddick in four.  If it goes five, Gonzalez may have the edge, especially considering there is no 5th-set tiebreaker, so Roddick’s big serve has to hold games, not points.

Del Potro Bracket – Bottom
(14) Marin Cilic vs. (19) Stanislav Wawrinka
As we mentioned before, the Hewitt-Baghdatis, Tsonga-Haas, and this one are the three best matches of the Third Round.  Both of these guys can flat-0ut hit the ball, and both are playing at a very high level, coming into this tournament.  Wawrinka has been the more impressive through the first two rounds, with two easy straight-set victories under his belt.  Cilic has had a bit of a tougher road.  His First Round match against the elder statesman, Fabrice Santoro, was a straight-set victory, but he needed 7-5 in both of the first two sets to do it.  Then, in the Second Round, against Bernard Tomic, Cilic lost the first and third sets, before rallying to win 6-4 in the fifth.  If Cilic wasn’t too fatigued by that match, this match with Wawrinka should be fantastic.

(4) Juan-Martin Del Potro vs. Florian Mayer
As predicted by BSB at the beginning of the season, Del Potro burst onto the scene last year, culminating with a thrilling US Open win over Roger Federer.  Now, he takes the court no longer as an “up-and-comer,” but as the defending Grand Slam champion.  It’s hard to say whether he feels any differently now, but he has struggled a bit so far this tournament.  His Second Round thriller with James Blake is understandable because Blake has been one of the top players in the world for some time, so it is impressive that DelPo can come back from two sets to one down and win 10-8 in the fifth.  However, now that DelPo has arrived, he has to take care of business in the early rounds.  He looked like he was going to do that in the First Round against 90th-ranked American Michael Russell, but then threw away the third set and had to go to four.  DelPo is still young, so it might not matter, but a lot of times the old adage holds true:  “You can’t win a Grand Slam in the early rounds, but you certainly can lose it.”  You have to keep your court time down if you expect to have enough left in the second week, when the competition ramps up and every little bit counts.  DelPo may have caught a bit of a break, though, in the Third Round, as his opponent, Florian Mayer, needed nine set of his own to reach this point–the farthest he has ever been in a major.  Mayer did, however, look good in knocking off 29th-seeded Viktor Troicki in four sets in the Second Round.  But, he is going to have to play much better than that against the World’s #4.

BSB’s Prediction
The first match here is really tough.  Mainly, we just want to watch two great players go at it, but since we have to make a pick, we are going to go with Cilic, by a nose.  Wawrinka is solid and has been playing well, but it is hard to ignore how good Cilic was on hardcourts last year.  We like Cilic to move on to the Round of 16 to face…Del Potro.  No surprise here, as DelPo should handle the unseeded Mayer.  The key for him is to get off the court.  I think, with either Cilic or Wawrinka looming, DelPo really needs to give everything he has to win this one in straights.  And, if he does that (which we think he will), then we like him to beat either Cilic or Wawrinka in the Round of 16.  One of BSB’s favorites, Juan-Martin Del Potro, is predicted to reach the Quarters here in Melbourne.

Nadal Bracket – Top
(5) Andy Murray vs. Florent Serra
I’m not sure that these first two rounds could have broken any better for the World #5, Andy Murray.  He had two breezy matches, dropping no sets and only 12 games, while his opponent, Florent Serra had two long 5-set battles in the blistering heat.  But, despite the 5-setters, it is not like Serra is struggling against poor competition.  He has defeated 28th-seeded Jurgen Melzer and an unseeded, yet strong, experienced player, Jarrko Nieminen.  But, who you beat doesn’t help you in the upcoming match.  And, Serra has not beaten anyone of the caliber of Murray, well, ever.

(12) Gael Monfils vs. (33) John Isner
Isner, who received the 33rd seed late, after a withdrawal by the 15th-seeded Frenchman Gilles Simon, almost gave it up right away.  In the First Round, against Andreas Seppi, Isner won the first two sets rather easily, but then dropped the next two, forcing him to hang on to a 6-4 win in the fifth just to get out of the First Round.  He then steadied himself and took out Irishman Louk Sorenson in straight sets in the Second Round.  Monfils, like each of the past 3 or 4 years, may be poised to have a breakout season this year, if he can get his head straight.  The talent is certainly there, but we will see if the results can match.  He has looked good so far, with two straight-set victories, but now he is going to have to face the big-serving Isner, just for a shot at another Quarterfinal appearance.

BSB’s Prediction
As much as we would like to see otherwise, there is no reason to think that Andy Murray will not cruise through his match with Serra, maybe without even breaking a sweat.  In the other match in this part of the draw, we are going to continue to believe in Monfils.  I think Monfils will be able to handle Isner’s serve and beat him up pretty badly on the ground.  Look for another straight-set victory for the Frenchman.  Then, we have ourselves a very, very nice Round of 16 matchup between the English and the French.  This match is a must-watch match, and we here are predicting an upset.  Probably because it is so hard to root for Andy Murray, but even with some tennis reasons, we are picking Gael Monfils to upset Murray and move on to the Quarters for the first time in his Australian Open career.  Yes, that pick may have been as much (if not more) of what we want to see happen than what we think will happen, but we’re on the record–Monfils over Murray.

Nadal Bracket – Bottom
(24 Ivan Ljubicic vs. Ivo Karlovic
The guy no one ever wants to see in their draw–Dr. Ivo–has surfaced again here in Melbourne as the land mine of the draw.  When this guy is serving well, he is almost impossible to break.  And, with his somewhat improved ground game, he is actually getting some breaks of serve himself.  So, though he clearly does not have the all-around game of an elite-caliber player, his serve-and-volley ability gives him a shot against anyone on any given day.  13th-seeded Radek Stepanek tripped the Karlovic trip wire in the First Round, as Dr. Ivo knocked off Stepanek in five sets.  Then, solid Frenchan, Julien Benneteau got picked off in four sets in the Second Round.  Now, it is 24th-seeded Ivan Ljubicic who has to avoid a similar fate.  Ljubicic crushed Jason Kubler in the First Round, and then won a hard-fought four-set match against Andrei Gobulev in the Second Round to arrive here against Dr. Ivo.  We will see if he can do everyone else a favor and eliminate the land mine from this year’s Aussie Open.

(2) Rafael Nadal vs. (27) Philipp Kohlschreiber
It’s been a while now that Kohlschreiber has been dubbed as an up-and-comer on the tour.  It might, actually, be too late now to call him that.  He may have been projected by some to be a top 10 player, but right now it looks like he has become just what he is–a top 30 player.  He has still never reached the Quarterfinals in a Grand Slam, so it’s about time he does something like that.  He had a decent Grand Slam season in 2009, and has played two decent matches here in Melbourne, easily knocking off Horacio Zeballos in straight sets and then taking care of the South African, Wayne Odesnik, in four.  But, now he’s got some work to do, as he wakes up and finds himself staring right down the barrel of Rafael Nadal.  Rafa struggled to break his First Round opponent, Peter Luczak in the first set, but dominated the tiebreaker, 7-0 and then rolled through the next two sets.  He continued the roll, manhandling Lukas Lacko 6-2, 6-2, 6-2 in the Second Round.  Now, he has Kohlschreiber.

BSB’s Prediction
Any match that involved Ivo Karlovic is just impossible to predict.  If his serve is falling, he’s hard to beat.  If not, he’s rather easy to beat.  But, for some reason, he brings out the guns in the Grand Slams, and we think that this will continue here.  We are going with Dr. Ivo to do it again, and eliminated another seeded player, this time Ivan Ljubicic.  In the other match, I don’t think Nadal will win 6-2, 6-2, 6-2 again, but I do think that he will win, and probably in straight sets.  Kohlschreiber has a nice game, but Nadal is just too good for him.  Bank on Rafa taking care of business and moving on.  That leads us to Nadal’s attempt to avoid the land mine.  The problem with Karlovic’s game when he runs into one of the top 5 guys is that he just stops being able to ever break.  Eventually, Nadal will get a game or two and, with holding every game easily, Nadal should win this match.  Not comfortably, but relatively easily–maybe 7-6, 7-6, 7-6.

Recap
So, here is what we have for our potentially fantastic Quarterfinal matchups at this year’s Australian Open:

• (1) Roger Federer vs. (9) Fernando Verdasco
• (10) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. (20) Mikhail Youzhny
• (4) Juan-Martin Del Potro vs. (7) Andy Roddick
• (2) Rafael Nadal vs. (12) Gael Monfils