The Mountain West feels to me like one of those bands that you liked a whole lot when no one had ever heard of them and then a new album goes mainstream, and everyone loves them and you want to scream “I knew they were awesome before anyone had ever heard of them,” but nobody would even care more than a shrug of the shoulders if you did.  I have loved this conference for a very long time and reveled in its rise to prominence, but now I think it be a little too hyped, particularly since BYU left a couple years ago (can anyone tell me why they thought the WCC was an upgrade?).  But, there is still some AWESOME basketball in this conference even if this year was a major down year for the MW.  They still have two teams that I could argue are elite, Final Four contenders and then a whole lot of don’t-sleep-on-me teams – all the way down to Fresno State and even Air Force.

Top-seeded San Diego State got the majority (17) of the championship picks here.  New Mexico got 6 of the other 8, with Boise State picking up the remaining 2.  No one has anyone lower than Boise doing much of anything.  GrossSr is trying to defend his 2013 MWC title this year.  J is the only one that has more than one MWC championship.

CHAMPIONSHIP (March 15th – 48 points)

#1 San Diego State vs #2 New Mexico
I’m not gonna lie, of all the great games on tap for today, this might be the one I am most looking forward to.  These two teams have become fierce rivals, particularly this year, when they are both head and shoulders above the rest of the league.  Both teams had tougher tests in the semis than they expected, but both survived to give us the rubber match that we were looking for.  SDSU took care of tournament host, UNLV, while New Mexico had to deal with a Boise team that really wanted to extend their season.  Can’t wait for this one.

This is as big as it gets here in the CTC.  Becks and Lohse are the only two with nothing at stake here.  7 people (Bry, J, Mac, Primm, Stritts, Stumpf, Teddy) have New Mexico here.  The other 16 all have the Aztecs.  A New Mexico title will give J the MWC title outright and a perfect MWC.  If SDSU wins, we will have a 4-way tie between Alexi, Gersh, RDoc, and Stri – who would all be perfect.

SEMIFINALS (March 14th – 32 points each)

#1 San Diego State vs #4 UNLV
San Diego State held Utah State to 39 points in a 73-39 blowout (interestingly, Arizona beat Utah at about the same time on Thursday, 71-39), flexing their muscles for the rest of the league to see.  Meanwhile, UNLV – at home against an really undermanned Wyoming team – barely won, but won just the same, setting what could be an interesting semifinal if the Rebels come to play, since they are tough to beat in this building.

Primm, Stritts, Stumpf, and Teddy went for the UNLV upset pick, while the other 21 all have SDSU.  16 people took the Aztecs to win this tournament.

San Diego State 59 – UNLV 51

#2 New Mexico vs #6 Boise State
With Boise’s “upset” of Nevada, we got the 4 best MWC teams to the semifinals, setting up what could be a great night in Vegas.  New Mexico handled a hot Fresno team to get here and are one step away from the much-anticipated rubber match with San Diego St.  But, Boise is not done yet – they want a return trip to the Dance and the only way they will get it is to win two more games.

This is a big swing game in the CTC, actually.  23 people still have a shot at points here, as only Colton and Dave had Nevada here and have already lost.  8 people (Becks, GrossSr, Lazarow, Lohse, Lynch, PapaCim, Scoot, WaTers) have Boise here, with Becks, Lohse, and Lynch going for Boise to take down what would be a lucrative championship for them.  The other 15 all have the Lobos, including 7 (Bry, J, Mac, Primm, Stritts, Stumpf, Teddy) who have UNM winning this tournament.

New Mexico 70 – Boise State 67

QUARTERFINALS (March 13th – 16 points each)

#1 San Diego State vs #8 Utah State
I am not surprised that the Mountain West had a team in the top 10 in the country for most of the year, and I’m not surprised that they have a team that has a real outside shot at a #1-seed in the NCAA Tournament.  I actually thought that New Mexico would be a top 10 team.  Wait…what?  It wasn’t New Mexico?  It was San Diego State?  Wow!  Another fantastic coaching job by the great Steve Fisher, as he just flat-out develops players.  Xavier Thames is his newest creation – the all-everything point guard who wasn’t all-anything before Fisher got his hooks into him.  Now, the Aztecs are legitimately relevant nationally and ready for the Dance.  They open the MWC tournament with a Utah State team that pulled a Houdini-like escape in their opening round game with Colorado State.

All 25 people have SDSU winning this one, with 16 of them picking the Aztecs to cut down the nets.

San Diego State 73 – Utah State 39

#4 UNLV vs #5 Wyoming
This UNLV team is not your typical UNLV team in that, well, they weren’t all that good.  Part of that was because of an injury to Roscoe Jones (who is now healthy) and a suspension to Bryce DeJean-Jones (who has been reinstated), but even at full strength, they were lackluster.  They caught a break with their quarterfinal matchup though (ya know, other than playing the whole tournament on their campus – like usual) in that Wyoming’s best player, Larry Nance Jr., is out with a broken leg.  Without Nance, the Cowboys offense is inept and they lose probably the best rim-protector in the M-West on defense.  But, anything can happen in March.

Only 5 (Becks, Caleb, Colton, Lynch, PapaCim) went with Wyoming here – none taking them any further.  Of the 20 with UNLV, Primm, Stritts, Stumpf, and Teddy all have them going to the finals.  This is probably the first CTC ever where no one took UNLV to win this tournament.

UNLV 71 – Wyoming 67

#2 New Mexico vs #7 Fresno State
I still think the Lobos have top 10 talent.  And, that was before I knew that Cameron Bairstow would turn into an absolute stud overnight.  The most improved player in the country, Bairstow went from a nice role player to possibly usurping his teammate, Kendall Williams, for MWC Player of the Year.  And, they are very well-coached by Noodles Neal, who has a wealth of NBA experience along with a pretty nice Harley.  Neal’s kid, Cullen, is a rising star, as well.  This is a fun team to watch and is probably smarting from the loss to Harvard in the tournament last year.  They open the MWC with a Fresno team that has been playing well, but who barely survived Air Force in the opening round.

All 25 entries have UNM winning here.  7 of them (Bry, J, Mac, Primm, Stritts, Stumpf, Teddy) have the Lobos winning it all.

New Mexico 93 – Fresno State 77

#3 Nevada vs #6 Boise State
These seedings should be switched.  Boise is the 3rd-best team in the conference and Nevada is the 7th.  But, the wins and losses didn’t show that, so Boise had to play an opening round game to get to this matchup.  Well, they sort of had to play it.  San Jose State didn’t really show up, as the Broncos led 46-14 at the half and cruised to a 31-point win.  Now, they get a shot at a Nevada team that seems to be doing it with smoke and mirrors.

Despite the better seed and the first-round bye, only 6 people (Chris, Colton, Dave, Mac, Primm, Teddy) have Nevada here.  Colton and Dave have the Wolfpack reaching the finals.  The other 19 all have Boise here with 5 having them losing in the finals (GrossSr, Lazarow, PapaCim, Scoot, WaTers) and 3 having them win it all (Becks, Lohse, Lynch).

Boise State 75 – Nevada 62

OPENING ROUND (March 12th – 8 points each)

#8 Utah State vs #9 Colorado State
Larry Eustachy’s squad took a real step backwards in Fort Collins this year, but that was to be expected with the massive graduation losses the Rams had.  They will have just about everybody back next year, so they may return to some sort of quality form, though just because they’re coming back doesn’t necessarily make them any better on the court.  The Rams will take on a Utah State team that expected to make a bigger splash in their first year in a borderline power conference.  They didn’t – even at home, where they have historically been unbeatable…they believe – and now they have to figure out if they can recruit the athletes to compete at this level.  I am not saying they can’t, but the M-West and the WAC are totally different ballgames on a night-in and night-out basis.  The winner here will take on #1 San Diego State in the quarters.

11 people (Bry, Caleb, Chris, Doogan, GrossJr, GrossSr, Lazarow, Mac, PapaCim, Stumpf, Teddy) have CSU in the minor upset here.  No one has either of these teams beating San Diego State in the quarters.

Utah State 73 – Colorado State 69
MADNESS!!!  With 1:35 left in the game, Colorado State led 66-57.  You see the final…WOW!  Spencer Butterfield hit the big three to complete one of the craziest comebacks you’ll see during these two weeks.  What a devastating way for the Rams season to end.  Utah State will play with house money on Thursday against #1 San Diego State.

11 people missed out on the upset pick here in dramatic fashion.

#7 Fresno State vs #10 Air Force
Fresno State enters the MWC tournament playing as well as anyone outside the two elite teams.  They have a nice combination of experience and youth and have won 8 of their last 10.  They are one of the best teams in the nation at protecting the ball, as they only turn the ball over on an incredible 14.3% of possessions (which ranks 8th in the nation).  They take on an Air Force team that they beat twice this year and that ranks 305th in the nation in turnovers committed.  However, AFA has been pretty solid and pretty tough to beat this year.  Both teams have real sleeper potential, but unfortunately they are lined up with #2 New Mexico in the quarters, who probably won’t fall victim to falling asleep.

7 people (Bry, Caleb, Dave, Lazarow, Primm, Scoot, Stritts) have AFA here.  No one has either of these teams beating New Mexico in the quarters.

Fresno State 61 – Air Force 59
While it wasn’t as mad as the first game, this was another devastating collapse in the waning minutes.  With 2:28 left, Air Force held a 57-51 lead, but was outscored 10-2 to finish the game, including two clutch free throws by Alex Davis to keep alive the sleeper potential of Fresno, who is playing really well.  Despite the 10th-place finish in a down MWC, Air Force actually had a decent season marred with close losses – and that’s exactly how it ends.

7 people miss the upset pick here.  Bry, Caleb, and Lazarow must already be sick of the Mountain West tournament, as those three all fell victim to BOTH of these crazy comebacks to spoil upset picks.

#6 Boise State vs #11 San Jose State
Boise State was supposed to have a really, really special year.  They didn’t.  They had everyone back off of a tournament team and just floundered all season long.  They played okay in the noncon, but didn’t pick up any quality wins.  Then, into conference play, they stumbled over and over, finishing in the middle of a down MWC.  That said, they still had a shot to pull out a decent season until the final 4 games when they suffered a 20-point loss at Fresno, a double-OT home loss to Nevada, and an OT loss to Air Force.  The collapse was complete.  And, what doesn’t make any sense is that they have two of the best guards in mid-major land – Anthony Drmic and Derrick Marks.  Fortunately, for them, while they didn’t get a bye, they do get the next best thing – a game against a putrid SJSU team.  The winner of this one (almost assuredly Boise) will take on #3 Nevada – another winnable game.  There is really a clear path for the Broncos to make the semis here and then take their chances with the big boys.

No one has San Jose State beating Boise in this game, but this is still quite the important game for CTC.  Becks and Lohse have Boise winning the whole thing.  GrossSr, Lazarow, PapaCim, Scoot, and WaTers have them going to the finals, but losing.  A whole slew of other entries have them beating Nevada before losing in the semis.

Boise State 83 – San Jose State 52
It turns out Boise did get a first round bye after all.  There isn’t much to say about a game that was 46-14 at halftime.  That’s an embarrassing introduction to the MWC tournament for SJSU.  Boise moves on to the quarters to face Nevada.

Everyone got this right, including quite a few with a lot at stake, particularly Becks and Lohse, who have BSU winning this tournament.

CTC UPDATE

Championship Picks

• #1 San Diego State (16)
• #2 New Mexico (7) – Bry, J, Mac, Primm, Stritts, Stumpf, Teddy
• #3 Nevada (0)
• #4 UNLV (0)
• #5 Wyoming (0)
• #6 Boise State (2) – Becks, Lohse

Biggest Upsets

• R1 – #10 Air Force (Bry, Caleb, Dave, Lazarow, Primm, Scoot, Stritts)
• QF – #6 Boise State (many)
• SF – #6 Boise State (Becks, GrossSr, Lazarow, Lohse, PapaCim, Scoot, WaTers)

Previous CTC Champions

• 2008 – J
• 2009 – Lynch
• 2010 – Stri
• 2011 – Bry, J (perfect)
• 2012 – RDoc (perfect)
• 2013 – GrossSr, LohseJr

2014 Scores