Ahhh, Arch Madness!!! Gotta love it! Even without Creighton, this conference – and this conference tournament – is one of the jewels of college basketball. There was extra attention on this league all year (most of it unfairly negative) because of the amazing 31-0 Wichita State run. And, while it’s true that there aren’t any legitimate at-large contenders (other than Wichita, of course), it shouldn’t dampen the view of this league, as a whole. It still remains one of the toughest leagues in America to win on the road (another reason to be impressed by Wichita’s season), and there is a TON of defense played every night in this league. The depth is impressive and will be on display in the opening round, as there are few leagues in the country whose 7th-, 8th-, and 9th-place teams can rival Bradley, Drake, and Evansville.
If Wichita enters Selection Sunday undefeated, 22 people will have gotten their MVC championship pick correct. If not, the MVC championship points will probably only go to one person, as #2 Indiana State, #3 Northern Iowa, and #4 Missouri State each have single supporters. #7 Bradley is the most popular sleeper pick to make a deep run. The last two years, this tournament was won with perfect brackets (which was AMAZING in 2012), with Mac holding the crown currently. Stri is the only one to ever win this league more than once.
CHAMPIONSHIP (March 9th – 42 points)
#1 Wichita State vs #2 Indiana State
The matchup that CBS was looking for going into this tournament. One of the few conference championships carried by the network and it is an undefeated team against a team that they might not actually roll over. Well, there’s a chance they don’t roll over them (I actually think they will, but whatever). Either way, there’s a lot of intrigue, and it’s probably our last chance to see Jake Odum play…unless you’re a fan of the Russian professional league or something of that caliber.
Dave is the only one with IndSt taking this championship, so he could clear 56 points on the field if the Sycamores win here. 22 people have Wichita, so unless Colton or Scoot have something against Dave, they are rooting for IndSt because they are the other two that didn’t pick WSU. If Wichita wins, PapaCim will take the MVC title outright. And, despite the 56 free points, Dave can only hope for a tie with PapaCim, who has clinched at least a share of this title.
Wichita State 83 – Indiana State 69
Alright, let the Weed of Ridiculous Media Degradation of Wichita State begin, I can’t wait. We can all now sit back and hear all the WRONG reasons why this team is overrated. Their schedule sucks (131st overall, 96th non-conference…which isn’t atrocious). They haven’t beaten anyone (a road win over Saint Louis). The MVC isn’t that good (11th out of 31). Their numbers aren’t really that good (8th most efficient offense via KenPom, 10th most efficient defense – the only team in the nation in the top 10 in both offense and defense – and that is weighted for your opponents). And, ya know what? F*k advanced metrics. Let’s go to the most old-school stat there is – WINS AND LOSSES. The Shockers are 34-0, people. What would the Miami Heat’s record be against this schedule? 34-0. Would they be “not that good” because they played this schedule. They didn’t lose a SINGLE GAME. Please, don’t get me wrong. I know Ronny Baker as Dwyane Wade and Cleanthony Early as LeBron James is ridiculous, but my point is that even the ’92 US Olympic team couldn’t have done better than 34-0, so let’s give them a #1-seed and see what happens. What a f*kin season that was capped off with a convincing win over a solid IndSt team. Just close your ears when people start talking about Wichita for the next 7 days and trust the Committee to do the right thing.
22 people got this one right, so really this game was a big negative 42 for Colton, Dave, and Scoot. PapaCim completes a VERY impressive MVC campaign and gets to brag about being the King of Arch Madness for the next 12 months.
SEMIFINALS (March 8th – 28 points each)
#1 Wichita State vs #4 Missouri State
The Shockers hammered Evansville in the quarters, while Mo State uglied up Illinois State for a 53-48 win. Missouri State is the team that had Wichita on the ropes this year – up 19 in the second half before losing in overtime. Now, the 32-0 Shockers are two wins away from entering the NCAA tournament unbeaten.
Dave and Scoot are the only two with Missouri State here. Scoot has Mo State winning the whole thing. The other 23 people all have Wichita here with 22 of them picking the Shockers to win it all.
Wichita State 67 – Missouri State 42
Wichita goes to 33-0 in a total rout of Mo State. The Bears lack of offense got them pretty far this year (well, I guess you can say their defense got them there, but whatever), but when you run into a team that can score on anyone, you better get a couple buckets yourself. Wichita’s defense held the Bears to 32% shooting and only committed 12 fouls. This was complete domination. Why is the fact that the Valley is down (actually, they’re just young – 9 of the top 10 scorers are non-seniors) make Wichita not good? They are crushing these guys.
Everyone except Dave and Scoot picked up 28 points here. 22 people kept alive their Wheatshocker championship pick.
#2 Indiana State vs #6 Southern Illinois
The Sycamores took care of Loyola (IL) in the quarters on Friday, while SIU shocked 3rd-seeded Northern Iowa in the nightcap. Now, they will battle for a trip to the MVC Finals and a national CBS game.
Alexi and Scoot have a nice upset pick available here. (Scoot’s Missouri State-Southern Illinois championship prediction is two games from becoming reality. If it does, that would be one for the CTC history books.) Surprisingly, only 7 people (Chris, Dave, Gersh, PapaCim, Stritts, Stumpf, WaTers) have Indiana State here, as most people had UNI. Dave is the only one with Indiana State winning this tournament.
Indiana State 62 – Southern Illinois 59
This game was nip and tuck the entire way, with the Sycamores coming through late to beat a game SIU team. With sophomore sensation, Anthony Bean, among others, the future is still bright for the Salukis, as they (the team that put the Valley on the mid-major map) could return to Valley relevance. IndSt now gets their shot at Wichita in the finals.
7 people took a nice 28 points here, including Dave, who still has a shot to steal the title with IndSt.
QUARTERFINALS (March 7th – 14 points each)
#1 Wichita State vs #9 Evansville
If you don’t think Wichita State is an elite team, you are either not paying attention at all or you are paying too much attention to the national “experts.” Are they going to make the Final Four? I have no idea because anything can happen in a one-and-done tournament, but I would say that, with the possible exceptions of Florida and Kansas, I would probably feel more comfortable saying that this team will be a Final Four team than any other team in the country. Why do we always discredit the “little guy?” That’s not rhetorical – that’s an actual question with an actual answer. The reasons I think that sometimes the mid-majors just aren’t as well-equipped as the big programs for a variety of reasons. One, they just don’t have elite, NBA-level talent like the big boys. Two, if they have elite coaches, they can’t keep them very long, so the best coaches don’t ever get to “establish” their system/culture. Three, they just don’t have the size. Four, they don’t have all that much experience in the “big moments,” whereas the big boys have pressure-packed free throws on most nights during the season and probably have a couple guys on their rosters that have significant NCAA Tournament experience past the first weekend. Well, Wichita has 2 (maybe 3) NBA players on their roster. They have an elite coach (who also seems like a complete asshole, but whatever). Wichita doesn’t have elite size, but they do rank right in the middle of the pack nationally, so they’re not incredibly small. And, finally, in case you have selective small-school amnesia, this team was IN THE FINAL FOUR LAST YEAR – with most of that team back. Just ask Rick Pitino if they were legit – he said that the semifinal against Wichita was their toughest game of the whole tournament. This is a legitimate national title contender and don’t let any run-of-the-mill, big-boy-loving national “expert” convince you otherwise. (Annual CTC rant on the underappreciation of the little guy? Check.) Anyway, the Wheatshockers are three games away from entering the NCAA Tournament undefeated. Step One: Evansville, who beat #8 Drake on Thursday night. Not an easy game, but Wichita is too good to pull a Martelli and lose in the quarterfinals of your conference tournament after an undefeated regular season.
Not surprisingly, everyone has Wichita winning here, including 22 people, who have them taking this title.
Wichita State 80 – Evansville 58
Ho-hum, another easy victory for a Shockers team that never gets fazed. Early and Baker had 11 points apiece and the Shockers set an Arch Madness team record with 11 blocked shots. Super soph D.J. Balentine had his second 30-point game in as many nights, so Evansville is in good hands for the next two years.
All 25 people hit this one.
#4 Missouri State vs #5 Illinois State
The second game of the best quadruple-header of the first week pits two teams that were not supposed to be all that good this year. Illinois State, particularly, was picked towards the bottom of the MVC in the preseason prognostications after losing a TON of talent off of last year’s team. But, they rebounded from a lackluster noncon slate to play pretty well in conference and earn an upper-division finish. Missouri State’s claim to fame this year is that they held a 19-point second half lead over Wichita State. Well, they blew that lead, obviously, but played very well throughout conference play, especially at home, where they only lost that Wichita game and a 2-point game against Northern Iowa. If MoSt can get their game to travel, they could be a tough out – and might not blow a 19-point lead if they get it against Wichita next round. But, they better bring their A-game to this one because the Redbirds can play.
This 4/5 game is a toss-up by CTC standards as well. 13 went with the mild upset of IllSt here, and 12 have MoSt (Alexi, Caleb, Chris, Dave, Gersh, J, Lynch, PapaCim, Scoot, Stri, Stumpf, Teddy, WaTers). And, while IllSt has slightly more support for this one game, MoSt is the more popular pick to do anything after this. No one has IllSt beating Wichita in the semis, but Dave and Scoot both have MoSt doing it. Scoot even has the Tigers winning the whole tournament.
Missouri State 53 – Illinois State 48
It doesn’t get much uglier, but MoState is moving on with a 5-point win over IllSt in the second quarterfinal of the day in St. Louis. MoState shot 32% and still outshot the Redbirds, who were held to 31%. Ugh. The Bears better think about making a shot or two if they want to upset Wichita in the semis on Saturday.
A dozen people got this one right, including Scoot, who had the Bears winning this tournament. Dave lost a finalist here.
#2 Indiana State vs #10 Loyola (IL)
Many people all year were touting the Sycamores as a potential bubble team, but I think that was just a weak attempt to actually help Wichita’s case for not being in a one-bid league. As much as I like Jake Odum’s game (and, I do LOVE his game), this Sycamore team is flawed and just didn’t do nearly enough to make the case for at-large consideration. But, they do have the talent to win this tournament, so don’t count them out of that. They may have caught a break on Thursday night, when Loyola upset a talented Bradley team, setting up a more cushy quarterfinal for the Sycamores. But, you can’t ever get comfortable in Arch Madness – we learn that every year.
No one has Loyola (IL) here, but GrossJr, GrossSr, and Lynch have already lost this game with Bradley. The other 22 people all have Indiana State here. Dave has the most at stake with the Sycamores, as he has them cutting down the nets on Sunday. Surprisingly, only 6 others (Chris, Gersh, PapaCim, Stritts, Stumpf, WaTers) have IndSt even going to the finals.
Indiana State 75 – Loyola (IL) 62
It was a nice Arch Madness debut for Loyola (IL), but they are heading home after getting overmatched by the Sycamores in the first game of the evening session. The great Jake Odum led IndSt with 18. The Ramblers future star Milton Doyle had a rough ending to his incredible freshman season, scoring just 5 points on 1-7 from the floor. We’ll be hearing his name in future CTC’s, though, for sure.
Everyone got this one right, including Dave, who kept alive his champion.
#3 Northern Iowa vs #6 Southern Illinois
My favorite line of the college basketball season is straight from the now-epic rant of SIU coach Barry Hinson. There were several fantastic lines in this one press conference, but the best was when he went off about his starting bigs going a combined 2-11 from the field in a loss to Murray State in December saying “My wife…MY WIFE!…can score more than two buckets on 11 shots because I know that my wife will at least shot-fake ONE TIME!” Simply amazing…that’s all I can say. But, Hinson’s team really turned it around after that (though, the schedule and development of young players had WAY more to do with it than some weird and embarrassing motivational tactic) and SIU, who wasn’t supposed to even be relevant in the MVC race, finished in 6th place and earned a coveted first-round bye (you see what happened to Bradley by falling out of bye position). The problem with the 6-seed is that the Salukis have to face #3 Northern Iowa, and the Panthers are one of the more underrated teams across the mid-major landscape. I literally have not heard anything about this team and the danger they pose, but they are really solid and are going to be a really tough out in this tournament. While, I love me some upsets, I am really rooting for Indiana State and UNI to both win on Friday because that semifinal will be great.
Normally, the 3/6 game is a tempting upset pick in the CTC, but this time only 6 people (Alexi, Chris, Dave, PapaCim, Scoot, Stumpf) were tempted enough to take it. Alexi and Scoot have the Salukis going to the finals. As for UNI, Colton is their biggest supporter, as he is the only one having them win this tournament. 14 people have the Panthers reaching the finals, though, so they are strongly supported in CTC-land.
Southern Illinois 63 – Northern Iowa 58
The Salukis pull off a pretty nice upset here to close out the Arch Madness quarterfinal day (one of the best days on the conference tournament schedule). SIU jumped on UNI right off the bat, built an 18-point lead, gave it all back and then some, and yet somehow still came through in the end to win it. Desmar Jackson went for 23 & 11 to end another season in disappointing fashion for the Panthers, who just can’t bring back the magic of Ali Farukmanesh…or whatever that guy’s name was.
Only 6 people hit this solid upset play, including Alexi and Scoot, who keep alive a finalist. Colton lost his MVC champion here, while 14 others lost a finalist.
OPENING ROUND (March 6th – 7 points each)
#8 Drake vs #9 Evansville
A really interesting 8-9 matchup that will display surprisingly solid basketball considering it’s an Opening Round game in a first-week tournament. Drake, despite not being highly-regarded in the preseason prognostications, had a very good noncon, but couldn’t put it together in the league. The tempo-free numbers are very impressive for the Bulldogs, though. They are taking on an Evansville team that spent all year trying – unsuccessfully – to replace the graduated superstar Colt Ryan (who actually had several workouts for NBA teams and will probably get a cup of coffee at some point). The winner of this game will go out on Friday trying to shock the world by ending the undefeated Wichita dream.
This 8/9 game is, predictably, a total tossup in the CTC. 13 people have #8 Drake, while 12 took #9 Evansville (Becks, Bry, Chris, Colton, Doogan, GrossJr, Lazarow, Lohse, Mac, Stri, Teddy, WaTers). It won’t have any impact other than these points, though, as everyone has Wichita going to the semis.
Evansville 69 – Drake 61
Arch Madness got underway in Saint Louis on Thursday night with 9th-seeded Evansville taking out 8th-seeded Drake. The season ends for a Drake team that was actually beloved by the “advanced metrics” community, but never really showed that in, ya know, wins and losses. Evansville, who was led by a 30-point performance from their SUPER sophomore D.J. Balentine (remember that name), will be the first Arch Madness opponent of 31-0 Wichita State on Friday afternoon.
While no one had either of these teams beating Wichita, it was still a somewhat important game in this 3.5x conference. A dozen people hit this minor upset worth 14 points.
#7 Bradley vs #10 Loyola (IL)
Bradley was picked 2nd behind the Shockers in the preseason polls, but got off to a terrible start to conference play (after a bad noncon) and couldn’t recover in time to save themselves from having to play in the Opening Round. But, they did get up to the 7-seed and, therefore, will get to officially welcome the MVC’s newest member, Loyola (IL) to Arch Madness. The Ramblers were a huge step down (and a questionable decision) as a replacement for the departed Creighton and lived up to the low expectations by a pretty safe last-place finish. But, they can end the disappointing Bradley season here in St. Louis and, if so, they will get a shot at #2 Indiana State in the quarters on Friday.
6 people (Becks, Bry, Caleb, Lazarow, PapaCim, WaTers) took a shot at Loyola in an upset pick, though none of them have them going any further. Lynch has the most at stake here, as he has Bradley going all the way to the MVC championship. The two Grosses both have Bradley beating Indiana State in the quarters.
Loyola (IL) 74 – Bradley 72
MADNESS!!! Loyola completes the upset sweep on the first night of Arch Madness, as they win their first ever MVC tournament game by upsetting Bradley in thrilling fashion. The Ramblers, who finished last place in the regular season, actually led this game most of the way – and, at times, by considerable margins – but it looked like they were going to let it completely slip away when Walt Lemon hit two free throws with :05 seconds left to give Bradley a 72-71 lead. But, Milton Doyle (who played all 40 minutes with an amazing stat line – 19 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 steals) hit a 3 at the buzzer to send the Ramblers to the quarterfinals. A very promising season for a Bradley team that was picked 2nd behind Wichita in the preseason was incredibly disappointing all year and now ends in devastating fashion. Loyola moves on to face a beatable (just sayin’) Indiana State team. Do we smell bracket-buster?
6 people hit this nice, 28-point upset pick. Lynch’s bracket is already busted by Loyola, as he had Bradley in the finals. Both Grosses needed a Bradley win here because they had them beating Indiana State on Friday.
CTC UPDATE
Championship Picks
- #1 Wichita State (22)
- #2 Indiana State (1) – Dave
- #3 Northern Iowa (1) – Colton
- #4 Missouri State (1) – Scoot
Biggest Upsets
- R1 – #10 Loyola (IL) (Becks, Bry, Caleb, Lazarow, PapaCim, WaTers)
- QF – #7 Bradley (GrossJr, GrossSr, Lynch)
- SF – #7 Bradley (Lynch)
Previous CTC Champions
- 2008 – Ina
- 2009 – Stri
- 2010 – Stri
- 2011 – Alexi
- 2012 – RSmith (perfect)
- 2013 – Mac (perfect)
Final 2014 Scores
- PapaCim – 203 (’14)
- Chris – 189
- Waters – 182
- Stumpf – 175
- Alexi – 147 (’11)
- Becks – 140
- Bry – 140
- Caleb – 140
- Gersh – 140
- Lazarow – 140
- Stri – 126 (’09, ’10)
- Stritts – 126
- Teddy – 126
- Doogan – 112
- J – 112
- Lohse – 112
- Mac – 112 (’13*)
- Dave – 105
- GrossJr – 98
- Lynch – 98
- Primm – 98
- RDoc – 98
- GrossSr – 84
- Scoot – 77
- Colton – 70
