Butler leaving two years ago took some steam out of the ascending Horizon League, but what is left is still a pretty solid mid-major league.  There are no real at-large teams in the league this year (though if Green Bay were to make the championship game, they might be in the discussion), but it was still a decent league top to bottom this year, and this tournament should be entertaining at the very least.  The Horizon has a great format for a tournament with the first round games on campuses Tuesday night, the quarters and semis hosted by the league champion on Friday and Saturday night, and the finals on the home court of the top remaining seed last next Tuesday.  The structure also awards regular season performance by providing double-byes to the top 2 seeds (Green Bay and Cleveland State) and a single-bye to 3rd-place (Wright State beat out Valpo on the last day of the season), so every spot is critical, keeping the regular season endlessly interesting. Top-seeded Green Bay is a very popular choice here in the CTC, as 18 of the 25 entries have the Phoenix taking this title.  8th-seeded Detroit is a very popular upset pick in the first round and even has three supporters picking them to win a pair of games.  Caleb is going for a repeat victory here in the Horizon.  Bry is the only one to have won this league more than once.  As a 3x tournament in the first week, this one could go a long way towards establishing a strong CTC position early.  In fact, the Milwaukee-Detroit Opening Round game might be the biggest CTC game ever on the First Tuesday.

CHAMPIONSHIP (March 11th – 36 points)

#3 Wright State vs #5 Milwaukee
Things could not have broken better for Wright State in the semifinals on Saturday night.  They took care of business against a really good Cleveland State team and then sat back and watched as Milwaukee pulled off a second straight upset, beating in-state rival and huge conference favorite, Green Bay, on their home floor in overtime.  Now, not only does Wright avoid the best team in the league in the finals, but they now get to host this championship game in their own gym.  But, they shouldn’t get too comfortable, as Milwaukee has already eliminated Detroit, Valparaiso, and Green Bay in this tournament.  One more and they’ll be dancing.

Just to exemplify how unlikely of a final this is – there is only one person in the entire CTC that can get any points from this game tonight.  Stumpf.  Stumpf was the only one to take Wright State to win the Horizon, and not a soul took Milwaukee.  So, either this game will be completely zeroed out or Stumpf will pick up a FREE AND CLEAR 60 POINTS!  Wouldn’t that be nice?  Obviously, a Wright State win would give Stumpf a dominant Horizon League victory.  If Milwaukee wins, Colton will take his first ever CTC conference title.

Milwaukee 69 – Wright State 63
What a run.  Wow!  Milwaukee sure earned their way to the Dance with an incredible run through this tournament.  I still don’t know how this happened – this team was picked to finish 9th in the 9-team Horizon and now they are going to represent this league in the Big Dance.

No one gets any points for this championship, so Colton takes his first ever CTC conference title.

SEMIFINALS (March 8th – 24 points each)

#2 Cleveland State vs #3 Wright State
Cleveland State was supposed to be okay this year, but they completely outperformed even the most optimistic projections.  The Vikings picked up quality noncon wins like Iona, Robert Morris, and Western Carolina and then carried that momentum into conference play, where they went 12-4 and earned the 2-seed and the corresponding double-bye.  The open the conference tournament already in the semis against a really good Wright State team that was supposed to win this league.  The Raiders knocked off Oakland with no problem on Friday night to set up this excellent semifinal.

7 people (Chris, Colton, Dave Doogan, Stri, Stumpf, WaTers) have Wright State here, with Stumpf as the only one picking them to win the tournament.  Lohse and Teddy have already lost this game with Youngstown.  The other 16 people all have CSU, with GrossSr, Lazarow, Mac, and Scoot all taking the Vikings to win this tournament.

Wright State 68 – Cleveland State 63

#1 Green Bay vs #5 Milwaukee
The nightcap finally welcomes the home team to the fray, as regular season champs, Green Bay finally enter the tournament to take on heated rival, Milwaukee.  Green Bay has had an extraordinary season and is a team that many look at as a real sleeper in the next tournament…if they get there.  Besides going 14-2 to win a pretty decent Horizon, the Phoenix also knocked off UVA and nearly beat Wisconsin in the noncon.  If you have never seen GB play, find them if for nothing else Kiefer Sykes is worth the price of admission – he’s that good.  They also have a 7-footer, Alex Brown, who shoots nearly 60% from the floor.  This team is rock solid.  But, one of their two conference losses came at home by double-digits to this very Milwaukee team back on Feb 8.  The Panthers, who beat Detroit and Valpo pretty handily to get here are ready.  This could be a war between two teams that plain don’t like each other.

Lazarow and Scoot would pull off an amazing run with Milwaukee if they can win again Saturday – neither of them have UWM winning the tournament, though.  19 people have Green Bay winning here; 18 of them have them going on to win the tournament.

Milwaukee 73 – Green Bay 66 (OT)

QUARTERFINALS (March 7th – 12 points each)

#4 Valparaiso vs #5 Milwaukee Two teams that had to win home games on Tuesday will play on Green Bay’s homecourt Friday night for the right to play the hosts in the semis on Saturday.  Valpo struggled surprisingly against last place UIC, but survived.  Milwaukee, on the other hand, were impressive in taking out a decent Detroit team.

Colton, Lazarow, and Scoot have Milwaukee here, with the latter two picking them to beat Green Bay on Saturday, too.  GrossJr, Lynch, and Teddy have already lost this game with Detroit.  The other 19 all have Valpo.  PapaCim and WaTers have the most to lose here, as they have Valpo winning this tournament.  GrossSr and Mac have them going to the finals.

Milwaukee 74 – Valparaiso 57

#3 Wright State vs #6 Oakland Travis Bader’s brilliant shooting and Coach Kampe’s brilliant inbounds play design saved Oakland’s season against Youngstown State and set up this quarterfinal date with Wright State.  Bader is one of the best players that no one’s ever heard of, but he’s three wins from being 2014’s Nate Wolters.  But, first in line is a Wright State team that was picked to win the Horizon.  It’s not like Wright was all that underperforming (inconsistent, maybe), it’s that Green Bay and Cleveland State were far better than expected.  But, Wright did get a huge win over Valpo last week that clinched them the 3-seed and a first-round bye.  While the Raiders don’t have anyone on the level of Bader, they are a deep and balanced team that can overwhelm you on defense.  This should be a really good game from which we will know who moves on to face #2 Cleveland State in Saturday’s semifinal.

6 people (GrossSr, J, Lazarow, Lynch, Mac, Scoot) have Oakland in a nice upset pick, though none have them any further.  Lohse and Teddy have already lost this game with Youngstown.  The other 17 all have Wright here, including Stumpf, who has them going all the way.  6 others (Chris, Colton, Dave, Doogan, Stri, WaTers) have them reaching the finals.

Wright State 73 – Oakland 57

OPENING ROUND (March 4th – 6 points each)

#4 Valparaiso vs #9 Illinois-Chicago Valpo was in really good shape to at least grab the single-bye that accompanies the 3-seed in the tournament, but they lost a tough road game at Wright State and then closed out the season with a home loss to Cleveland State, forcing them into this opening round.  Fortunately, they have a home game against a UIC team that went 1-15 in conference play.  If there’s a silver lining for the Flames, it’s that that one win was a shocking 22-point win just this Wednesday on the road at Milwaukee.  The winner of this game will face the winner of the 5/8 game for the right to play #1 Green Bay on their home floor in the semis on Saturday night.

Not surprisingly, no one took the terrible UIC here on the road.  Valpo has some decent support, as GrossSr and Mac have them beating Green Bay before losing in the finals, and PapaCim and Waters have the Crusaders winning the whole thing.

Valparaiso 73 – Illinois-Chicago 63
Freshman forward Alec Peters went 10-11 from the field (2-3 from 3-point land) to lead the Crusaders to a surprisingly difficult 73-63 win over a really bad Flames team. Everyone got this one right, including PapaCim and Waters, who kept alive their Horizon champions.  GrossSr and Mac keep a finalist alive.

#5 Milwaukee vs #8 Detroit Milwaukee was the feel-good story of the Horizon through 14 of their 16 conference games.  Then, Wednesday night, they suffered the biggest head-scratcher of the season in the Horizon when last-place UIC came into their building and blew them out.  They recovered, though, and beat Detroit on the road on Friday to close out the season at 7-9 and grab the 5-seed, despite preseason prognostications picking them to finish last.  Now, they get a home game against that very Detroit team, who stumbled down the stretch, losing their last 3.  The Titans can rise up, though, as they are the only Horizon team to beat Green Bay, Wright, and Valpo this year.  The winner here will face the winner of the 4/9 game in Friday’s quarters for a shot at #1 Green Bay on Saturday.

Considering it’s only the First Tuesday, this is actually a sneakily gigantic CTC game in this 3x tournament.  Despite a 3-seed difference and homecourt advantage, the majority of the field has Milwaukee getting upset here.  Only 10 people (Alexi, Caleb, Colton, Gersh, Lazarow, PapaCim, Scoot, Stri, Stritts, Waters) have UWM here.  Colton has them going to the semis; Lazarow and Scoot have them going all the way to the finals.  The other 15 people have Detroit in an upset that could net them a quick two dozen points.  GrossJr, Lynch, and Teddy went a step further and have the Titans winning again in the quarters.  Big swing game, to say the least.

Milwaukee 83 – Detroit 73
The surprisingly excellent season for Milwaukee will continue in the quarterfinals in Green Bay on Friday, as they end a disappointing season for the Titans.  The Panthers opened up a big lead in the first half and staved off a couple Detroit runs to advance to the weekend’s festivities, which will include a Friday night game against Valpo. This was, as elaborated on above, a huge CTC game that went to the Panthers.  Only 10 people hit this, including Colton, who saves a semifinalist, and Lazarow and Scoot, who saved finalists.

#6 Oakland vs #7 Youngstown State Oakland’s first season in the Horizon was a year of near-misses and thoughts of what could have been.  The roster has a lot of talent, but they understandingly struggled a little dealing with the unknown of new road trips, new styles of play, and just a general uptick in overall talent on the opposing side.  They also played a BRUTAL non-conference slate, so maybe the losing carried over.  But, they have righted the ship lately and enter the tournament as a bit of a sleeper.  They got a HUGE win on Saturday to close out the regular season at Youngstown State to ensure that this 6/7 matchup would be played in their house, not YSU.  The Penguins were up and down as well this year – at times looking like potential title contenders and others look more like bottom-dwellers.  Unfortunately for them, they have looked more like the latter lately, losing 5 of their last 6, with the only win an OT win at home over Milwaukee.  The winner of this game will travel to Green Bay for a Friday night quarterfinal against #3 Wright State.

9 people (Alexi, Chris, GrossJr, Lohse, PapaCim, Stritts, Stumpf, Teddy, Waters) went with the mild YSU upset pick.  Lohse and Teddy are trying to corner the market on the Penguins, as they have them going to the finals – two rounds further than anyone else has them. 6 people (GrossSr, J, Lazarow, Lynch, Mac, Scoot) have Oakland beating Wright State in the quarters, but none have them beating Cleveland State in the semis.

Oakland 96 – Youngstown State 92 (OT)
ABSOLUTE MADNESS!  Travis Bader single-handedly kept his amazing career going by scoring FIVE POINTS IN THE FINAL :02 SECONDS to send the game to OT – and, if you know anything about Oakland basketball over the past four years, you are not surprised at all.  Bader – who has scored nearly 2,500 points, including more than 700 3-pointers, in his incredible Golden Grizzly career – dropped 39 in total, including 18-18 from the FT line.  Bader and the rest of the Oakland team move on to the quarters in Green Bay to take on 3rd-seeded Wright State.  This loss has to be just DEVASTATING for the Penguins, who led by 4 with :08 seconds left, and now they’re heading home with their season over. This loss is also devastating to Lohse and Teddy, who had the Penguins going to the Horizon finals.  7 others missed out on the mild upset.  6 people keep alive the dream of Oakland reaching the semifinals.

CTC UPDATE

Championship Picks

• #1 Green Bay (18)
• #2 Cleveland State (4) – GrossSr, Lazarow, Mac, Scoot
• #3 Wright State (1) – Stumpf
• #4 Valparaiso (2) – PapaCim, Waters

Biggest Upsets

• R1 – #8 Detroit (many)
• QF -#8 Detroit (GrossJr, Lynch, Teddy)
• SF – #7 Youngstown State (Lohse, Teddy)

Previous CTC Champions

• 2008 – Waters
• 2009 – Bry
• 2010 – Doogan, Teddy (perfect)
• 2011 – Bry (perfect)
• 2012 – Lohse
• 2013 – Caleb

Final 2014 Scores

1. Colton – 81 (’14)
   
2. Primm – 66
3. Dave – 57
4. Doogan – 57 (’10*)
5. WaTers – 57 (’08)
6. Lazarow – 54
7. Scoot – 54
8. Stri – 54
9. Chris – 51
10. Stumpf – 51
11. RDoc – 33
12. Stritts – 33
13. Caleb – 30 (’13)
14. Gersh – 30
15. Alexi – 24
16. Becks – 24
17. Bry – 24 (’09, ’11*)
18. PapaCim – 24
19. GrossJr – 18
20. GrossSr – 12
21. J – 12
22. Lynch – 12
23. Mac – 12
24. Lohse – 6 (’12)
25. Teddy – 6 (’10*)