BSB Question of the Day

5 Responses to BSB Question of the Day

1. Doogan says:

   April 27, 2010 at 6:41 pm

   A complicated question to be sure. I can think of a bunch of reasons why he’s not, but I think of more reasons why I like the deal.

   First off, why he’s not worth it: The simple fact that paying any player $25 million a year is an insanely high number, and you better have VERY special player if you’re going to do it. Especially if your not the Yankees or Red Sox (though the Phillies seem to be moving closer to those teams, which is pretty great). Howard is obviously “special”, but he’s also pretty one-dimensional: a power hitter. Also, as I’ll get to below, I’m not a complete believer in this “big guys don’t age well” theory, but there is at least something to be said for it. Howard’s value completely lies in his ability to hit the ball long and far. When he starts to lose that raw power, how valuable is he? To make an analogy to basketball, Michael Jordan re-created his game late in his career to find new ways to dominate after his athleticism diminished. How does Howard do something like that? Is he really going to be able to say, “I don’t have the bat speed anymore, so I’m gonna have to shorten my swing and spray line drives.” And is a mediocre defensive 1B without elite power worth $25 mil/year?

   Ok, now the case for the signing. One, there are a lot of holes in the examples people give about big guys that don’t age well. Jim Rice played in the 80’s, at a time when strength and conditioning habits were nowhere near what they are today. Mo Vaughn and Howard may both be big 1B, but to just say they have the same body type is way off base. Take a look at Mo Vaughn at 30: http://www.checkoutmycards.com/CardImages/Cards/174/331/07F.jpg. Does that look like Howard’s body? And take a look at Vaughn at 35: http://nbcsportsmedia2.msnbc.com/j/msnbc/Components/Photos/040108/040108_mo_vaughn_.widec.jpg. I guess it’s possible, but can you really imagine Howard looking like that in 5 years?

   Anyway, the truth is that Howard is in much better shape now than he was two years ago, and while that trend might not continue, it looks like he has a number of years of at least maintaining his current size. And that fact in itself is part of the argument for giving him this deal. He’s shown a full commitment to getting better in every way he can, as also shown by his improved glove work. Also, he’s been nothing but a completely positive presence in the clubhouse and for team chemistry, which is a real nice bonus.

   Take a look at his production. Four straight seasons of 45 home runs or more, here in the post-roids era. I’m pretty sure sabermetricians still recognize slugging percentage as a legitimate stat. Well, Howard ranks third among active players in career SLG% (behind Pujols and Manny), and he sits at 10th all-time, ahead of a couple guys named Joe Dimaggio and Alex Rodriguez.

   And the final clincher for the argument: what is baseball (and any sport) all about? Winning championships. If the Phillies hadn’t won the World Series in ’08 (and the pennant again last year), I probably fall on the side of not liking this deal. But this guy has been hitting in the middle of that order for those post-season runs. Obviously, we’re very capable of winning titles with him in the line-up, and he is a key cog in the machine. The Phillies are in really great position to win titles in each of the next 3-4 years. If they get just one in that stretch, I promise you, I won’t give two craps that we’re paying Howard $25 mil to hit .245/22 HR in 2016.

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2. WaTers says:

   April 30, 2010 at 11:54 am

   I’m actually don’t think the deal makes sense from a business standpoint… but given the option of seeing Ryan Howard thru his prime as a Phillie with $2 hot dog night… or no Ryan Howard and $1 hot dog night… I think it is worth it.

   As for the $125 million- it’s not my money so he’s totally “worth” it.

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