If I were a voter, here is how I would vote (and why) on each person on today’s ballot:
(If you’re wondering, I gave 3 “yes” votes–Goose Gossage, Jim Rice and Lee Smith–but I’m not really adamant about any of them making it.)
NO on Brady Anderson–Only had that one big year of 50 HRs, and that was almost undeniably steroid-aided
NO on Harold Baines–Not as far as one might think. Look at these career numbers: 384 HRs, 1628 RBIs, .289 BA, .465 SA
NO on Rod Beck–Ferociously intimidating, but only 23rd on the all-time save list probably won’t cut it
NO on Bert Blyleven–A very controversial member on this ballot every year. I am very much opposed to his election because I do not feel like the Hall of Fame is a test of durability. I understand that 287 wins, 3701 K’s and a 3.31 ERA are astounding numbers, but I don’t feel like Blyleven was ever a “Hall of Famer.” He has 250 losses and never finished higher than 3rd in Cy Young voting. How can a Hall of Famer go through 22 seasons never being in the top 2 pitchers in his league? In my estimation, he can’t. Great career, not a Hall of Famer.
NO on Davey Concepcion–There is nothing I like more than strong defensive shortstop play, and Concepcion is one of the best (.971 career fielding %, with incredible range). However, he is clearly not a Hall of Famer, in my estimation.
NO on Andre Dawson–He has been real close and many people think that this is the year, however, I would not vote for “The Hawk.” It’s tough because of his 438 HRs and 314 SBs. He also won the 1987 MVP and finished 2nd in 1981 and 1983. However, I think that the Hall of Fame is getting a little watered down. I’m not saying that Dawson didn’t have the talent to be a HOFer, I just think he falls slightly short.
NO on Shawon Dunston–One of my all-time favorite players, with the best arm I’ve ever seen. Does not get my vote, especially when he came out and said that he prefers the normal pronunication of “shawn” instead of “sha-won”
NO on Chuck Finley–Solid career (200 wins), but not a HOFer
NO on Travis Fryman–Also a solid career, but not even really close.
YES on Rich “Goose” Gossage–Now, I actually feel somewhat unqualified to vote “yes” on this because I, admittedly, never saw Gossage pitch and, from all I’ve heard, his numbers do not tell the whole story behind “The Goose.” But, anyone who was such a great closer and did it with saves that often lasted 6,7,8 even 9 outs, he’s got my vote. But, please understand, this is mostly on what others have said about him.
NO on Tommy John–Much like Blyleven, Tommy John has big numbers because of his durability (the medical marvel that is “Tommy John Surgery”), but 4700 innings pitched, though impressive, doesn’t get you a plaque next to Babe Ruth. Though his 288 wins puts him in the discussion, I still think he’s slightly out.
NO on David Justice–Steroids only got him 305 HRs. Uh…no
NO on Chuck Knoblauch–Now, I really like Chuck Knoblauch and I feel bad for all that he has gone through in his playing career. A really solid career (now tainted by more steroid accusations), but never finished in the top 15 of the MVP vote. Even without the accusations, Knoblauch falls well short.
NO on Don Mattingly–Anyone outside of New York City knows that Donny Baseball, though tragically falling just in between the two Yankees dynasties was a very good player, but not a HOFer. He was one of the best players in baseball from 1984-1987 (averaging .337 BA, 30 HRs, and 121 RBIs over those 4, pre-steroid era years), but the rest of his career was not as impressive and he is not a HOFer in my book.
NO on Mark McGwire–There is no doubt that he had a HOF career. In fact, I get really annoyed when anyone tries to sell the whole “even without steroids, his one-dimensional career is not HOF-worthy.” That is absolutely ridiculous and I have heard it more than once, from respected sportswriters. I think it is just them trying to make themselves feel better about passing a moral judgment on a really good man and what he did or didn’t do. I, on the other hand, have no problem passing that judgment and believe that, until we really know what happened during this “era,” the HOF should not include McGwire, Sosa, Clemens, etc. It is easy to add these players retroactively, if we, as a society so decide. It is impossible to take them out.
NO on Jack Morris–Pitched 10 shutout innings in the greatest baseball game that I have ever seen, but his ERA is over 4 and he has nearly 200 career losses. As great as a postseason pitcher as Morris was, he is not a HOFer.
NO on Dale Murphy–All this talk of Jim Rice snubs is only because he is from fricken Boston and they have nothing better to do than shovel snow and complain about how their media-darling Red Sox don’t get any respect. If Murphy was a Red Sox or a Yankee, he would have already been elected. Fortunately, for the integrity of the HOF, he wasn’t. Murphy had a great career (and was unstoppable in RBI Baseball for Nintendo), but I do not think that a .265 career hitter is a HOFer.
NO on Robb Nen–Funny because it doesn’t seem like it’s been 5 baseball seasons without Robb Nen somewhere. He is 15th on the all-time save list, but is not really that close to a HOFer in my opinion, even though he shares my birthday.
NO on Dave Parker–Parker put up surprisingly good numbers, which is probably why he is still on the ballot after all these years. However, the other reason why he is still on the ballot is because he is not a HOFer.
NO on Tim Raines–Another superstar in RBI Baseball, “Rock” Raines stole 808 bases, good enough for 5th all-time. He also pounded out 2,605 hits. Raines is actually really close, in my book, just not quite there.
NO on Jose Rijo–One of my favorite pitchers ever, but clearly not a HOFer
YES on Jim Rice–Though I kind of ripped him earlier, I do think that Rice deserves to be in the HOF. Six times he finished in the Top 5 of the MVP voting, including winning the 1978 award. A lot of people (including me at times) think that Rice was only a home run hitter, but this is not true. He has a career .298 batting average and slugged over .500 for his career. It is really close, in my book, but I think I give him a “yes,” barely.
YES on Lee Smith–Maybe I am being completely hypocritical here because I have clearly denied voting for Tommy John and Bert Blyleven because I think their numbers are purely because of durability. However, with Smith, I think it is different. He was #1 all-time in saves, a pretty important statistic (granted a new phenomenon), until Hoffman recently surpassed him. That alone should count for something. Plus, his ERA is slightly over 3, and he struck out 1,251 batters in 1,289 innings. Yes, I am in the minority, but I vote “yes” on Lee Arthur Smith. Okay, maybe I’m swayed by his giving up the Mother’s Day grand slam to Mariano Duncan with the Cardinals up 3 in the 9th inning, but whatever.
NO on Todd Stottlemyre–Pitched about 5 innings in the WORST baseball game I have ever seen (Game 4 of the 1993 World Series), and for his slide into 3rd base in that game, he is automatically excluded from HOF consideration, if you ask me. Well, that and his career 138-121 record and 4.27 ERA.
NO on Alan Trammell–Terrific player and I think I probably think he is closer than most people think, however, he just doesn’t have the numbers.
Looks like Gossage did get in (on his 8th try) and Jim Rice fell 14 votes short. Lee Smith and Andre Dawson fell short, as well. I have no qualms with this result whatsoever
My biggest problem with HOF voting is why is Goose Gossage suddenly HOF worthy in a writer’s mind. Obviously, there is a good number of writers that voted NO for years and now voted YES. Either he is or he isn’t. No player should get closer to the HOF as they get older.
Mac
Bry, when I think of Andre Dawson, I also don’t think ‘Hall of Famer’. But I wonder how much of that is because we saw him mostly in the late-80’s and 90’s, when his knees were totally shot and he had trouble making it around the bases after home runs at times. That’s kind of the image I have of him. You probably remember his MVP year (I don’t), but neither of us saw him in his true prime, when he was a prototypical 5-tool player in the late-70’s and early-80’s.
Interesting stuff, to be sure. Thought I would throw in two tidbits…
1. You might have seen this Jayson Stark ESPN.com piece yesterday, but after reading the Tim Raines section good lord I think he gets in. And I did not feel that way yesterday. I know you can massage stats to prove whatever you want them to prove, but to me this is compelling.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hof08/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=3171509
2. Here is the list of eligible HOF’s for the next few years, off the Hall of Fame website.
2009: Steve Avery, Jay Bell, Mike Bordick, John Burkett, David Cone, Ron Gant, Mark Grace, Rickey Henderson, Charles Nagy, Denny Neagle, Jesse Orosco, Dean Palmer, Dan Plesac, Rick Reed, Greg Vaughn, Mo Vaughn, Matt Williams, Mike Williams (HOF Weekend will be July 24-27, with Induction Ceremonies on Sunday, July 26)
2010: Roberto Alomar, Kevin Appier, Andy Ashby, Ellis Burks, Andres Galarraga, Pat Hentgen, Mike Jackson, Eric Karros, Ray Lankford, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Shane Reynolds, Robin Ventura, Todd Zeile (HOF Weekend will be July 23-26, with Induction Ceremonies on Sunday, July 25)
2011: Wilson Alvarez, Carlos Baerga, Jeff Bagwell, Bret Boone, Kevin Brown, John Franco, Juan Gonzalez, Marquis Grissom, Al Leiter, Tino Martinez, Raul Mondesi, Hideo Nomo, John Olerud, Rafael Palmeiro, Benito Santiago, Ugueth Urbina, Larry Walker
2012: Vinny Castilla, Bill Mueller, Brad Radke, Tim Salmon, Ruben Sierra, Bernie Williams, Tim Worrell
Interesting to look at who gets in and who doesnt off this list of eligibles, and how that changes things for Rice, Raines, Blyleven, etc. (ie the way things changed for Gossage over time).
I think Henderson is the only obvious first ballot hall of famer, next year. And that Rice gets in with him in his last year of eligibility. I think Alomar and Edgar Martinez get in off the rest of that list, with a case being able to made for Cone, maybe McGriff or Bagwell, Larkin, Johnny Franco, and maybe Bernie. But I dont think any of those last guys get in. I do think based on that Stark article that Raines gets in. I gotta get my “Charles Nagy for Cooperstown” shirt made up, also.
I think Henderson and Alomar are the only two definites on that list. Henderson is a no-brainer and Alomar was hands-down the best all-around 2B of his era. Edgar Martinez might have some trouble because he was only a DH. I know that was talked about a lot at the end of his career. It will probably take a while for him to get in, if he does. You’re right a case could be made for Cone. It doesn’t hurt that he spent most of his career with the Mets and Yankees. That won’t help Bernie though, he has no shot. If he hadn’t played for a Yankees dynasty, he’d be Ellis Burks. McGriff was kind of Mr. Consistency, but I don’t think that’s the criteria the HOF should be looking for. Bagwell looked like a HOF-er for a number of years in his career, but those were the heart of the steroid years. Something to think about. Larkin could maybe get in eventually. As fo Raines, I think the knock on him would be what Bry said about some other guys, he played 23 seasons! I think for a speed player like him, if had also been a great defensive player, that would put him over the top, but he wasn’t. I guess he’ll probably get in eventually, but I’m not convinced he deserves to.
Doog, cmon now, I agree with you Bernie Williams probably isnt a Hall of Famer but Ellis Burks? My boy Craig was the one who I have been emailing about the HOF stuff since yesterday, and while he agrees that Williams isnt a HOF there is at least enough objective evidence that he should be in the discussion. This is all stuff I got from him.
Bernie Williams was one of the best CF’s in baseball for a 4-5 year stretch, he won four gold gloves, a batting title, and an ALCS mvp, 5 all star games, 2300+ hits. One thing that I forgot about Bernie that could help his case was that up until this year he did have the record for most HR’s in postseason history. So that would have to count for something I’d think although people will probably shit on it because of the extended playoff format. If he hadnt tailed off so quickly near the end of his career he would get in. I remember around 2003 that Gammons wrote some article that if Bernie had kept up with his normal season averages for like two or three more seasons then he would have been one of only five players to get 2500 hits, 1500 runs, 500 doubles, 300 HR’s, and 1400 rbi’s.
So again, maybe not a Hall of Famer, but certainly way way better then you argued.
All I said was he’d be Ellis Burks. Ellis Burks was really good! Burks career numbers: .291 avg., .361 obp, .510 slg, 352 hr, 181 sb. Bernie: .297 avg, .381 obp, .477 slg, 287 hr, 147 sb.
Also, I feel bad saying this because I actually like Bernie and I know he’s a god to Yankees fans, but anyone who’s peak years were from 1995-2002 has to be viewed with at least a little suspicion. Bernie put up monstrous numbers right in that range, and then ‘tailed off so quickly’, as you say. If you looked at his career stats without attaching a name to it, it pretty much exactly fits the profile of a ‘roid guy. Hey, a bunch of ’93 Phillies were on ‘roids too, so I’m not pointing a finger. Everybody was doing it. But Bernie never finished higher than 7th in MVP voting. He was a great player, but not a HOF player. His post-season heroics obviously count for something, and lift him above an Ellis Burks.
Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa saved baseball. That should count for something.