PREFACE: The question is completely hypothetical (and will not influence any actual gambling outside of a Vegas sportsbook), but the following point spreads are real:
Seattle (+8) at GREEN BAY
Jacksonville (+13) at NEW ENGLAND
San Diego (+8.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
New York (+7.5) at DALLAS
Say, hypothetically, you were in a Vegas casino with $100 and you liked (in order of preference): New England, Dallas and Indianapolis to all cover this weekend. Which, of the following options, would you choose to allocate your $100?
OPTION #1–STRAIGHT UP: throw $30 on DAL, $50 on NE and $20 on IND (the amounts, obviously can be moved around)
–This option gives us you break-even point with NE. If NE covers, you can lose both the other two and still break even. Plus, if you hit NE, then any other victory is profit. Further, if you lose NE, then you can still break even by hitting both of the other games.
OPTION #2–THE FULL TEASER: throw all $100 on a 3-team, 6-point teaser, which would give you NE -7, DAL -1.5, IND -2
–You have to hit all 3, but if you do, you make $180 profit.
OPTION #3–THE TEASER-COMBO: $50 on the aforementioned teaser, $25 on DAL, $15 on NE, $10 on IND
–This means that if you hit the teaser (which gives you point-flexibility), you cannot lose more than $10. Further, if you hit the teaser, then every game you cover with the full spread is profit.
OPTION #4–THE PARLAY COMBO: $25 on DAL, $35 on NE, $15 on IND, $25 3-team parlay
–To make any money, you’d have to hit 2 of 3, but if you hit one, you hedge a little of your losses. Plus, if you hit all 3, you hit a relatively large payday. Losing them all, obviously costs you all $100. Hitting only DAL costs $50. Hitting only NE costs $30. Hitting only IND costs $70. Hitting NE & DAL makes $20. Hitting NE & IND breaks even. Hitting DAL & IND costs $10. Now, if you hit all 3, you make $225 profit.
OPTION #5–THE FULL PARLAY: $100 3-team parlay
–If you hit all 3 games with the regular spreads, you make $600.
OPTION #6–LET IT RIDE: $100 on NE
–Since NE plays on Saturday, and the other two games you like play Sunday, you decide to just throw $100 on the Pats and then see what happens. if you win, you then have $200 to play with on the two Sunday games (and, most likely, another Question of the Day column to read).
I think that all of the lines look too large. If you were smart you could have gotten a middle on the NE game at 11 and probably 14 1/2 by kickoff.
I think if I was gonna tease the Dallas game it would be the other way. You forgot the ten point tease with NYG +17.5, Seattle +18, and NE -3.
I hate to teasea any bets but if I had to put $100 on a tease it is risking $120 to win $100 and I don’t see the NE game being close and I don’t think either of the other two teams lose by more than 14.
I knew I’d get your opinion on this, Jay (one of the reasons I posted it, so thanks).
I didn’t forget about the 10-point tease, I just think it’s kind of a bad bet because it pays less than 1-1 and you’re not getting that many more points. And, I hear what you’re saying about SEA and NYG, but one major rule of the playoffs–“Don’t bet on an underdog if you don’t think they can win outright.” I’m struggling to think that either NFC road team will win outright–but I bet I’m in the minority on that one.
I’m far from a gambling expert, but I don’t think I would be betting on Patriot games at all this postseason, the lines are too inflated. I certainly wouldn’t want to bet against them, but do I really want to bet on a really good team like Jacksonville (with an excellent defense, great running game, and qb that takes care of the ball) getting beat by two touchdowns? No thanks. But that’s me. So with that in mind, I’d take the 6-point teaser.
The one thing you don’t do is parlay. No reason to EVER parlay on games that are at different times. For example, a 2 team parlay usually plays 2.5:1 so $250 profit on a $100 bet. Instead, bet $100 on NE first. If that comes in, bet $150 on the next game. If that comes in, you are $250 ahead. If not, you lost only $50.
Other than that, sure seems like at least one dog should be able to stay within a freaking TD.
I’d actually take Seattle if I was gonna bet on any of these games. But there’s no game that I love. The Colts might be looking pretty good too, with the Gates injury.
I think I’d tease it the other way – SEA +14, Jax +19, NYG +13.5. Oh, any your lame disclaimer aside, this blog is clearly designed to encourage people to gamble illegally. In fact, you might say that the operators of this blog have entered into a conspiracy to promote violations of the Wire Wager Act and the Illegal Gambling Business Act. Oh, and to all you law enforcement personnel out there, both “Bry” and “Doogan” told me that they’re going to promote and encourage illegal gambling all they want, you’re too stupid to stop them, and you should go dip your balls in lava.