Last night’s games were pretty exciting. The West Virginia-Xavier game was a terrific game. Western Kentucky’s run against UCLA was somewhat surprising and exciting. The Louisville-Tennessee game was incredibly sloppy and somewhat disappointing as far as how the Vols did not show up in the second half. And, how good does UNC look right now? Answer: VERY good. That was a good team that they manhandled last night.
As for tonight, it should be another great quartet of high-quality basketball games.
Friday 7:10: #3 Wisconsin vs #10 Davidson
Cinderella, it’s getting close to midnight. Is there one last dance left in the Davidson Wildcats? That will be the question answered tonight. Davidson and Stephen Curry have been, unquestionably, the story of this year’s tournament and probably the one non-champion that will be most remembered from this tournament. They came from behind to knock off two ranked teams, including heavy favorite, Georgetown, in three days, and now their reward is a Sweet Sixteen matchup with the Wisconsin Badgers.
As good as Stephen Curry has been in the first two rounds, the most impressive thing in their two tournament games, for me (someone who, admittedly, did not watch one regular season SoCon game this year) has been the play of point guard Jason Richards. I knew that Richards led the country in assists per game–by a wide margin at 8.0 per game–so he had to be a good player, but he has been terrific. The other standout player for the Wildcats in the first two rounds has been big man, Andrew Lovedale. Lovedale, like Curry and even Richards to a certain extent, does not play like a guy on a SoCon team. At 6’8″, the guy has some solid post moves, a soft touch from as far out as 15 feet and is a tenacious rebounder. He seems like he would be good enough to get a lot of minutes in a major conference. So, this team is not just Curry–though without him, they certainly are not still playing. Curry was absolutely terrific, scoring 70 points in the first two rounds (55 of those 70 were scored in the games’ second halves) and willed his team to victory. It was obvious that he was the man that teams had to stop and two very well-coached teams still could not do it. He may need a third straight career game tonight, though.
As good of a coach as Mark Few or John Thompson III are, I believe that there are a handful of coaches around the country that are head-and-shoulders above their peers in ability to maximize talent and flat-out win basketball games. Bo Ryan is, without a doubt, on this list. Ryan, a Philly guy through and through, has made a real name for himself in Madison. If I were to ask: “What Big 10 school has the most league victories since 2001?” I don’t know how many people would answer Wisconsin with their first guess. In fact, I probably would have said Michigan St. Many may have guessed Indiana, but it actually is Wisconsin. And Ryan (who arrived in Madison in 2001) has done it with how many “stars?” Off the top of my head, I can only think of one Bo Ryan-coached player that is a really good NBA player–Devin Harris. Alando Tucker was drafted by Phoenix, but has only played 12 minutes this year. I don’t think Kammron Taylor is in the league, and Kirk Penny had a cup of coffee. So, Ryan does it without pro talent–and he does it every year.
This year, he is led by seniors Brian Butch and Michael Flowers. I have said many times that I believe Flowers to be one of the five best perimeter defenders in the country–more on this in a minute. The Badgers have also seen production from junior Marcus Landry and sophomores Brian Bohannon (sharp-shooter extraordinaire) and rising-star Trevon Hughes. Hughes, Landry, and Butch provide just enough offense to allow the defense to carry the day. This defense is led by Flowers, a high energy guy who almost always draws the other team’s best perimeter scorer. I wonder where this leads us…
THE PICK: For Davidson to win this game, they are going to need another big-time performance from Stephen Curry. Honestly, I just do not see that happening against Michael Flowers. This matchup is the key to this game, and I give the advantage to the defender. That combined with the fact that Bo Ryan had 5 days to prepare for Davidson leads me to believe that Wisconsin will win this game somewhat handlely, though the score may seem close because the Badgers do not really blow people out. I expect Wisconsin to be playing again on Sunday.
Friday 7:27: #2 Texas vs #3 Stanford
As I said when talking about the Louisville-Tennessee matchup yesterday, if you had told me that Texas and Stanford would meet in this year’s tournament, I would have guessed that it was at least an Elite Eight game, if not in the Final Four. But, we get this game in the Sweet Sixteen. As much as I was looking forward to the big 2-3 matchup yesterday, I have been even more excited for this one.
Stanford comes in with incredibly strong credentials for a #3 seed. They were clearly the second-best team in the best 
conference. They played a decent non-conference schedule and only tripped up once (a road loss to Siena). They then reached the finals of the Pac 10, before losing a close one to UCLA. They were undefeated at home and 26-7 overall, with two of the losses in overtime. This team is really, really good. Everyone knows about the Lopez twins, particularly Brook (the All-American), but another guy who has been maligned all year is their point guard Mitch Johnson. I watched a good amount of Stanford games and never understood why people were so down on him. He is not a big-time scorer (less than 7 ppg), but he is a great floor general and a very good perimeter defender. He will be tested tonight. They also have some really nice parts other than the Lopez’s, in SG Anthony Goods and swingman Lawrence Hill. This is an experienced, confident team with a superstar and a defensive mindset. They play fundamental basketball and believe in each other–that all adds up to a tough draw.
On the other side, I will say it again–I think Rick Barnes is a fantastic coach. I might be the only one outside of Austin, TX, who thinks that, but I really do. I think he does a lot with not as much talent as people give him credit for. Yes, he recruited Kevin Durant and D.J. Augustin, but as we have seen often, one superstar on the college level is not enough anymore. This team starts with Augustin, who is probably the best point guard in the country, but A.J. Abrams can really light it up, as evidenced by a pair of 26-point games in the tournament so far. They also have incredible athleticism in Damion James (who has really developed into a big-time player in his own right) and Justin Mason. Connor Atchley has also developed under Barnes to become a more than serviceable big man. Atchley exhibits a rare combination of shot-blocking (69 on the year) and three-point shooting (38-87, 43.7%). This team comes at you in all ways and can play different styles. They are not that deep, but Stanford’s methodical offense should allow them to be okay in their 6-man rotation.
THE PICK: In a really, really tough game to pick, I am going to go with the conference that I have been supporting all year–the Pac 10–and pick the Stanford Cardinal to win what is going to be a fantastic basketball game. I obviously would not be surprised either way, but I just think that the experience and the heart of the twins, Johnson and Hill will be enough tonight. I actually picked this team to go to the Final Four when the brackets came out and I am sticking with it.
Friday 9:40: #1 Kansas vs #12 Villanova
The non-Cinderella 12-seed, Villanova, gets a dose of reality as they take on #1 seed Kansas. The Wildcats pulled off a nice come-from-behind upset of Clemson in the first round and then caught a relative break with #13 Siena in the second round (though Siena is a really good team that will be easily the best mid-major next year–expect a 6 or 7 seed for the Saints in 2009). However, I just do not see them with the horses to keep up with Kansas tonight.
As Scottie goes, so goes ‘Nova. Scottie Reynolds is the heart and soul of this team, and the Cats rely on him to carry them–oftentimes they rely on him too much. He takes a lot of shots and makes a lot of shots. The rest of the supporting cast is, in my opinion, either too young or just not that talented. This, the last team in the field, will probably find themselves quite overmatched at times tonight. That being said, Reynolds can easily go off for 40 and Jay Wright gets his teams prepared. They will need all of Reynolds’ points and a big game on the inside from Dante Cunningham , if they want to pull off the upset.
On the other side, not all that many people are talking about Kansas because of the dominating performances of North Carolina. This team might be playing the best basketball in the country right now–at the right time. I have heard several coaches in the field give interviews and just about every one of them, when asked the question, “If not your team, who is the best team in the country?” And, every one that I have heard answer the question, has said “Kansas.” Granted, these are coaches who are often only focused on their teams and the teams they are playing, but that is saying something. With Brandon Rush, Mario Chalmers, Darrell Arthur, Sherron Collins, Russell Robinson, Darnell Jackson, Sasha Kaun……….this team is just too deep and too good. Plus, I think Bill Self is an excellent coach and will have them ready to play both tonight and on Sunday.
THE PICK: I think it would take the game of Scottie’s life and then some for Villanova to pull off this upset. They have had a very successful year, but I am pretty sure that it ends tonight.
Friday 9:57: #1 Memphis vs #5 Michigan State
This is another very interesting game tonight. Michigan St. has incredible talent (I even thought they were a national champion contender in my pre-season analysis), but has struggled at time incorporating the youth into the system. They are finally playing at an incredibly high level and it may be just in time. On the other side, Memphis, as they have for three years now, gone through a season of workman-like dominance. Par for the course: another 33-1 regular season, another Sweet Sixteen appearance, and no one believes in them. This weekend will prove who is right and who is wrong.
For the Spartans, they are led by the inconsistent, but often brilliant, play of Drew Neitzel. Neitzel, another much-maligned player, has put in two very good tournament games thus far. They need him to continue to be that leader because no one else is really taking on that role. Sophomore Raymar Morgan is probably the most talented player on the team and ought to be ready to be the leader of this team, but he does not seem to want that role. Freshman Kalin Lucas is just that–a freshman–albeit, an immensely talented one. Coach Tom Izzo has even said that Lucas is the fastest player he has ever coached, wow. They have also started to get serious inside play from Goran Suton. If he and the red-headed Drew Naimick can give State some bruising inside play, they have a shot tonight.
As I said in the opening paragraph, this Memphis team is a lot like its two predecessors, in that they had a dominating 
regular season and just kept winning in the tournament. The other two fell a game short of the Final Four, and I am not too sure that this one won’t have the fate, but for now they have to take care of Michigan St. before we find out. A very deep team that has just about everything you need on a basketball team. They have a terrificly talented point guard, in Derrick Rose, who can score, but prefers to pass. They have outside shooters who, on any given night, can range from capable to deadly (Doneal Mack, Antonio Anderson, Willie Kemp). They have two absolutely bruising, defensive-minded bigs, who are skilled offensively as well and who work in tandem, so they can limit foul trouble and fatigue (Robert Dozier and Joey Dorsey). They have a high-energy swingman (Shawn Taggart) and a high-energy point guard (Andre Allen) off the bench. And, to top it all off, they have a superstar who can almost score at will (and often does), but does not need to score to be effective (Chris Douglas-Roberts). This team is stacked and we all know that Coach Cal will have them playing with the requisite chip on their shoulders.
THE PICK: There is so much made of Memphis’s poor free throw shooting (and somewhat deservedly so, since they are the second worst in the country) that you would think that every game comes down to free throws. Yes, Memphis shoots an abysmal and embarrassing percentage from the free-throw line. However, they did shoot poorly all year and still went 33-1. THIRTY-THREE AND ONE! Yes, they played in Conference USA, but they completely rolled through that league and only lost one game in the MOST DIFFICULT non-conference schedule in the country. A few of the teams that they beat this year: Oklahoma, UConn, USC, Cincinnati, Arizona, Siena, Gonzaga, Richmond, etc. If free throws were such a detriment to their ability to win basketball games, then don’t you think they might have lost more than one game against some of the better teams in the country? I am not saying that it won’t be their demise eventually, but I am saying that they made it this far with bad free-throw shooting, so I am not picking against them now. I think Memphis wins tonight, and fairly easily.
Thursday 7:10: #3 Xavier vs #7 West Virginia
might say that their defensive numbers (57 PPG against, 42% FG against, 33% 3-pt against, 13 forced turnovers/game) are the most impressive in the country. On the offensive end, they have a full team approach, but can struggle at times. They do have two incredible talents, in Derrick Low and Kyle Weaver–both of whom played on the Pan-Am under 21-team (UNC only had one player selected for that team)–and decent complements in Taylor Rochestie and Aron Baines. The Cougars finished 4th in the nation’s best conference and went undefeated in a non-conference schedule that was highlighted by wins at Gonzaga and at Baylor. This is a battle-tested, tough, senior-laden team with a great coach. They are not to be taken lightly.
Though Rogers hit the game-winner against Drake, and Tyrone Brazelton has poured in 48 points in the first two tournament games, this team is really centered on the production of senior Courtney Lee–as shown by his 29 points against San Diego in a dominating performance. Many people project Lee to be a first-round pick in the upcoming NBA draft, which combined with their experience on the perimeter and confidence in abundance, means that despite their seed, this team should not be taken lightly and is not all that much of fluke to still be playing. Their meddle will be tested tonight, though.
teams in the country, winning 15 out of 17, through the Big East. Then, after the two losses to end the season, wound up (deservedly) as a #3 seed. Other than UNC, the Cardinals may have been the most impressive team in the tournament’s first weekend. In the first round, they beat Boise St. by 18 in a game that was never close, and then, in the second round, they simply hammered a good Oklahoma team by 30–78-48. This team, like a more glorified Xavier team, is extremely balanced on offense. They have eight guys that average between 6 and 12 points per game, led by David Padgett (11.7). Padgett, along with Earl Clark, Derrick Caracter (a blue-chip recruit, who many thought would be a one-and-done guy, but cannot even crack the starting lineup in this his sophomore season) and Juan Palacios, control the middle. They also shoot a lot of threes, with four players having made at least 45 three-pointers this year–Jerry Smith, Edgar Sosa, Andre McGee, and Terrence Williams. Williams, who, in my opinion, is clearly the Cardinals’ best player does a little (or sometimes a lot) of everything. The 6’6″ junior is second on the team in scoring (11.2 ppg), rebounding (7.3 rpg), steals (43), and 3-pointers made (46). He also has 21 blocks on the year and, oh by the way, is far and away the team’s leader in assists at almost 3.5 per game. His one weakness is at the foul line, where he only shoots 56%.
Now, on the even of the tournament, if you ask me again, my answer will be somewhat similar, with the only exceptions are that I would take out Michigan St. and add Duke and Texas. I would probably change the order to (in my opinion today): UCLA, North Carolina, Kansas, Memphis, Georgetown, Tennessee, Texas, Louisville and Duke. I am not saying this to say how great my predictions were because I did not really go out on a limb with anyone, except Michigan St. (who didn’t pan out) and maybe Tennessee (though it didn’t take long for everyone to catch on). The interesting thing about the fact that the two lists are so similar is that I cannot remember a year that has panned out, for the most part, pretty much exactly as most people would have envisioned. There are no surprise great teams. There are no pre-season top 10’s that missed the tournament. Things kind of held to how everyone thought they would. I was just saying the other day that I cannot recall another college basketball season where if you had asked me every day from October to March who the best team was, I would have answered with the exact same thing, every day. Maybe that is just my blind faith in this UCLA team, but it is still odd that I never questioned it.
If you have never gone to a low-major championship game, particularly one on a participant’s home floor, you are seriously missing out. I had my first opportunity to do just that on Saturday, when I went to the America East Championship between UMBC and Hartford at the RAC, on the campus of UMBC.
Moving forward, the Retrievers drew Georgetown in the first round. As I said in my initial bracket reactions, probably not the best matchup for UMBC. No mid-major (with the possible exception of UNC-Asheville and the 7’7″ dude) can matchup with skilled 7’2″ center, Roy Hibbert. UMBC’s tallest starter is 6’8″ Justin Fry and he is listed at 220 pounds (I am thinking he would be lucky to actually weigh 200). Plus, Georgetown has experience, a great coach and immense talent all over the floor. So, what can UMBC do on Friday?
First “Batch” of Games:
they get a virtual home-game here, with this game being played in Birmingham. Butler is a bonafide mid-major powerhouse. A.J. Graves has gotten most of the publicity for them over the last couple of seasons, but the main player to watch here is Philly-native Mike Green. Green led the Bulldogs in points (14.9/game), assists (5.1/game), and rebounds (6.6/game) despite being only 6’1″. How a player this good got out of Philly and ended up at a small school in Indiana is a mystery to me, but I’m sure Butler fans aren’t asking any questions. The other games in this batch are Georgetown-UMBC, Texas-Austin Peay, and UConn-San Diego, which could be interesting, as San Diego just knocked off St. Mary’s and Gonzaga en route to the WCC tourney title.
Calathes and Griffin are both star forwards, but have taken different paths and play very different styles. Calathes was not highly-touted out of high school but has slowly developed into a big-time player, earning First-Team All-Conference honors in the A-10 this year as a senior. Also, unlike Griffin, he can step outside and hit 3-pointers, shooting over 40% on the season. Griffin, on the other hand, is a freshman and the reigning Oklahoma Mr. Basketball, who decided to stay home and play alongside his older brother, Taylor. Griffin is a bruiser and plays an aggressive style. He is big and strong, but with surprising quickness and an array of moves he can use to get the ball in the bucket. He will probably be checked by Nivins in this game, and Nivins will have his hands full. 
where they lost 6 out of 7 games. They rallied to secure the berth with wins over UConn and West Virginia in late-February, and a win over Syracuse in the first-round of the Big East tournament before getting crushed by Georgetown in the quarterfinals. Meanwhile, Clemson is playing their best ball of the season after beating Duke in the ACC tournament and then giving North Carolina a run for their money in the finals, before losing by 5 points.
This year, the analogy has some special significance, because my Christmas will start off by watching an appropriately named man: Temple star Dionte Christmas. As a long-time Temple fan and former season-ticket holder, there couldn’t be a better way to kick things off. The Owls have stormed into the tournament by winning the A-10 tournament, and while they may not be the better team in their game with Michigan St., they will be the team with momentum on their side.
and they need to contain Drew Neitzel. Tyndale will most likely matchup with Raymar Morgan and should do a good job on the Michigan St. leading scorer. Temple is at a pretty big disadvantage in the post. Michigan St. is always physical and a great rebounding team, and Lavoy Allen and Sergio Olmos are not the strongest post-men around. They may be man-handled. Either way, Temple’s fate will be determined by Tyndale and Christmas. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tyndale will this team to a win. 
At this point, all of you suckers out there will be home from work and have some time to catch up on all the highlights before settling in for what might be the best game of the first round: USC vs. Kansas St. Of course, this one jumped right out immediately when it was announced on Selection Sunday because it’s O.J. Mayo vs. Michael Beasley, two of the top freshmen, and overall players, in the country. No doubt, the next time these two guys play each other will be in the NBA.
rather check out the WVU-‘Zona game. This Zona team is fun to watch. Jerryd Bayless is another freshman that you can look for on an NBA team somewhere next season. He’s a combo guard that can score any way he wants: shoot from long-range, take it to the rim, stop on a dime to hit a mid-range jumper. His teammate, Chase Budinger, can also light it up and he’s also one of the best red-headed athletes to come along in a while.