The New Year Report: Conference Previews, Part Three

With Parts One and Two in the books, let’s move on to Part Three, where we hit up four of the more interesting mid-majors this year – The Mountain West, the WCC, the Valley, and the new-look 16-team Conference USA.

MOUNTAIN WEST

Coming off the best season in league history, the Mountain West has some ‘splaining to do.  It has been a really poor start for a league that looked like it might be becoming a perennially elite conference.  San Diego State (and maybe Utah State) is probably the only preseason contender that hasn’t underperformed thus far.

  • Preseason Favorite:  New Mexico
    At the end of last year (before Tony Snell declared for the draft), I honestly thought that this UNM team was Final Four good.  Even without Snell, I still saw them as Top Ten good.  And, while they won’t actually get there, the 3 losses (UMass, @Kansas, New Mexico State) aren’t all that troubling.
  • Most Impressive:  San Diego State
    The only top-tier MWC team that has outperformed expectations is SDSU.  The Aztecs only loss was to #1 Arizona and they have wins over Creighton, Marquette, and Washington.
  • Most Disappointing:  UNLV
    The Rebs have bounced back to win 5 straight, but it has been over some rather poor competition, and they did play Arizona tough in Tucson, but it’s hard to ignore the 21-point throttling that they took from UCSB on their home floor.
  • “My” Favorite:  Boise State
    Everyone is back from a tournament team (yet still underrated team) last year, including the dynamic backcourt of Anthony Drmic and Derrick Marks.
  • Potential Sleepers:  Utah State, Wyoming
    Utah State’s inaugural MWC season will be interesting to follow because of their amazing homecourt advantage.  Wyoming has actually played some real competition this year and acquitted themselves okay, so they might be a decent sleeper pick here.
  • Also Relevant:  Colorado State
    They lost a TON from last year, but they still have Larry Eustachy, who can flat-out coach, so they have to be considered relevant.
  • Dregs: San Jose State, Air Force
    San Jose State has actually played somewhat well, but they have NO talent.  Air Force is just not competitive this year, as shown by a home loss to the SWAC’s Jackson State.
  • The Pick:  New Mexico
    I still believe in this team and think they are the best team in the league.

WEST COAST

The conference formerly known as the “Gonzaga Conference” is still dominated by the Zags, but the rest of the league has really picked it up.  And, with last year’s addition of BYU, it has become a pretty interesting conference.

  • Preseason Favorite:  Gonzaga
    The Zags are still the best team in the league, without any real question.
  • Most Impressive:  Gonzaga
    Despite losses to Dayton and K-State, the Zags have been solid and haven’t shown anything to make you think they aren’t still the best team in the WCC.
  • Most Disappointing:  San Francisco, Santa Clara
    Both USF and SC were supposed to potentially contend for an upper-division finish this year, but both have looked rather bad so far.  Santa Clara is less alarming because they are very young, but Rex Walters is not exactly doing the bang-up job that people thought he would as head man at USF.  He could be on the hot seat if they don’t turn it around.
  • “My” Favorite:  BYU
    This team is really good.  And, it doesn’t hurt that they are incredibly fun to watch with their up-and-down style.  Spencer Haws is the best kept secret in college basketball, and UCLA-transfer Matt Carlino is a dynamic point guard.  And, in 2016-17, remember the name Eric Mika, who will return from his Mormon mission ready to dominate in his sophomore season.  Right now, he’s just fun to watch because he’s so big and so athletic.
  • Potential Sleepers:  Portland, Pacific
    These two teams will not contend for a top-3 finish, but you have to be careful because they are both playing very well right now.
  • Also Relevant:  Saint Mary’s
    Before a disastrous Christmas trip to Hawaii for the Diamondhead Classic, the Gaels were undefeated and looking VERY good.  Now, there are serious question marks, though they did only lose three games by a combined 11 points, so maybe it was just a bad trip.
  • Dregs: Pepperdine
    As great as their campus is, that’s about how bad their hoops team has been recently.  This year, however, the Waves are improved and might be going in the right direction, but they are still the worst team in this league.
  • The Pick:  Gonzaga
    No-brainer here.  The Zags have incredible advantages in this league when it comes to prestige, resources, and amenities, so it would be hard to pick anyone (other than BYU) over them any year.  This year is no different.  They should win this league going away.

MISSOURI VALLEY

This year marks the end of a long run of stability in the MVC.  The Valley had the same makeup of teams for longer than any other conference in the country other than the Ivy League, until this year when Creighton has been replaced by Loyola-Chicago.  Not only is the stability messed up, but that is a gigantic downgrade.  And, with UNI and Missouri State still rebuilding, there shouldn’t be much challenge to Wichita this year.

  • Preseason Favorite:  Wichita State
    The Shockers shocked everyone with a Final Four run last year after a decent season.  This year wouldn’t be much of a shock, as they look like one of the elite teams in the country.  An otherwise down year in The Valley (and without Creighton), should mean a cakewalk for the Shockers here.
  • Most Impressive:  Wichita State
    Wichita is among the handful of “Most Impressive” in the whole country, as they sit at 12-0 without really being threatened.
  • Most Disappointing:  Bradley
    Bradley was the clear-cut pick as the biggest threat to Wichita (if there was going to be one), but the Braves have been dreadful so far, including home losses to IUPUI and IPFW.  Not coincidentally, Bradley has taken the biggest fall in KenPom rankings from the preseason (134 in the preseason to 246 now).
  • “My” Favorite:  Indiana State
    I just really like Jake Odum.  The Sycamores don’t have the horses to challenge Wichita, but they should be able to pull out a second-place finish here and potentially get at-large consideration.
  • Potential Sleepers:  Drake, Northern Iowa
    Drake has looked rather feisty so far, and UNI has a lot of talent.
  • Also Relevant:  Missouri State
    The Tigers have come out of nowhere to start off 9-2.  I think it’s a bit of smoke and mirrors, but they have been good enough to call “relevant” so far.
  • Dregs: Loyola-Chicago, Southern Illinois
    While SIU is widely known for their poor start because of the ridiculous rant by their coach, Barry Hinson, that got national acclaim across the spectrum, Loyola-Chicago has been far worse so far capped off by a home loss to lowly Northern Illinois and a drubbing at lowly Fordham.
  • The Pick:  Wichita State
    Probably one of the two easiest picks (along with New Mexico State in the WAC) in the country.

CONFERENCE USA

All of a sudden, Conf USA remakes itself, and keeps itself rather interesting.  There are now 16 teams in this, the largest league in the country, and while it hasn’t been of that high a quality, the conference race is fascinating because of all the inconsistency at the top.

  • Preseason Favorite:  UTEP
    Several teams have been picked as the favorites here from various preseason prognostications (cases can be made for UTEP, Southern Miss, La Tech were the most common, but arguments can be made for Charlotte, Middle Tennessee, and even Tulsa, UAB, or ECU), but UTEP is seen by slightly more as the pick here.  But, needless to say, it is WIDE OPEN.
  • Most Impressive:  Southern Miss
    The best team so far has probably been Southern Miss, though they don’t have a real quality win on their ledger yet.
  • Most Disappointing:  Tulsa
    The one of the plethora of “contenders” here that has looked worse than the others has to be Tulsa, which is upsetting because you have to root for Danny Manning, right?  I trust Coach Manning to turn it around come conference play, though.
  • “My” Favorite:  Louisiana Tech
    I love this team led by the unknown superstar, Raheem Appleby.  This team won the WAC last year and brings back just about everyone, so they’re kind of loaded.  The only question is how will they do in a new league with new road trips and schedules.
  • Potential Sleepers:  Middle Tennessee, East Carolina
    Mid Tenn is another team from a new league, but they have the talent to compete if they figure it out.  ECU was picked 9th in the league in the preseason, but they look like they might contend for a title – if it all goes right.
  • Also Relevant:  UAB, Charlotte
    Charlotte drew national attention by winning the Puerto Rico Shootout (taking down K-State, Northeastern, and Michigan in the process), but have just been okay since.  UAB drew national attention by beating UNC and have been pretty good all year.
  • Dregs: UTSA, Rice, Florida-Atlantic, North Texas
    Rice is the typical doormat of this league, but with the expansion they now have some company.
  • The Pick:  Louisiana Tech
    I am going with La Tech here because I think they have the most talent.  But, this is kind of a “throw a dart” pick because this league is so wide open – it should be fun.
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The New Year Report: Conference Previews Part Two

Here in Part Two of our CBB conference previews, we are now going to hit on the two relevant new-look conferences, the Big East and American, along with the disappointing SEC and the always interesting A-10.

SEC

Kentucky and Florida are very, very good (though they haven’t shown just how good yet) and Missouri, LSU, Tennessee, and Arkansas can be good in flashes, but, generally, this conference is yet again one of the more disappointing leagues in America.

  • Preseason Favorite:  Kentucky
    The preseason #1 team in the country resided in Lexington with all their freshmen again.  This team appeared (and is) loaded.  With McDonald’s All-Americans at every position, it’s hard to think of them as anything but loaded.
  • Most Impressive:  Florida
    Honestly, there hasn’t really been a “most impressive” team in this league because everyone has struggled.  But, the best team in the league so far has probably been the Gators, who have wins over Kansas and Memphis and only have a 6-point loss at Wisconsin and a 1-point loss at UConn.
  • Most Disappointing:  Alabama
    TI used to think that Anthony Grant was a great coach.  I’m not ready to give up on that belief, but I am ready to stop screaming it from the rooftops.  This ‘Bama team is – yet again – too talented to be irrelevant, and yet they are heading down that path.
  • “My” Favorite:  LSU
    I think it will probably take a big win for people to finally take note of what’s going on in Baton Rouge right now (St. Joe’s, UAB, and Butler don’t count), but when that happens, Johnny Jones will finally get some credit for the program he’s building down on the Bayou.  Jones brought in stud big man Johnny O’Bryant in his first year last year and has added two more ELITE recruits this year – Jarell Martin and Jordan Mickey.  While Martin seemed like the recruiting coup (McDonald’s All-American, 5-star rating), the less heralded Mickey may be just as important a piece.  Either way, with Martin, Mickey, and O’Bryant in the frontcourt, this Tiger team is big, talented and still very young.  They will only get better.  I would not want to play them in March, and if they all stick around, this might be a Top-10 team next November.
  • Potential Sleepers:  Arkansas, Ole Miss
    Everyone knows about Marshall Henderson at Ole Miss (though, it is kind of strange how well he’s taken to a bench role – I guess it fits him perfectly because he doesn’t have to share the ball with the second team), but people are not paying much attention to the rebuilding job of Mike Anderson at his alma mater in Fayetteville.
  • Also Relevant:  Missouri, Tennessee
    Frank Haith is doing it again at Mizzou with a brand-new set of super-guards.  Marcus Denmon left two years ago and Flip Pressey and Michael Dixon (the latter transferred to Memphis) left last year along with nearly the entire starting five.  But, Haith brought in two unheralded transfers and turned them into stars.  Jordan Clarkson (Tulsa) and Earnest Ross (Auburn) are perfect for this system and Clarkson has put himself into potential SEC Player of the Year discussions.  As for Tennessee, they have all the talent in the world, the question just remains as to whether or not Cuonzo Martin knows how to maximize it.
  • Dregs: Mississippi State, Auburn, Georgia, South Carolina
    Not only has the top of the league been disappointing, but the bottom has been simply dreadful.  Northwestern State, Davidson, Manhattan, USC-Upstate, Missouri State, Utah State.  That might be a list of decent mid-major programs, yes.  But, it’s also a list of teams that have won road games at SEC schools.  Quality mid-major programs or not, that is terrible.  And, I left out the UTEPs, TCUs, and Boise States of the world.
  • The Pick:  Kentucky
    This is a tough pick.  While Florida has looked like the better team, I still think that, in the end, the talent will win out – and Kentucky has so much talent, it’s laughable.  Gimme the ‘Cats to figure it out and take the SEC title.

BIG EAST

The Big East went from a fantastic, yet bloated and somewhat stale conference to a slimmed down, pretty solid top-to-bottom league.  They lost a lot of star power with Boeheim and Pitino and history with Notre Dame, Pitt, and Cincinnati, but kept a lot of the quality that gave this league the substance to go along with the sizzle of past years.  Plus, the additions of Creighton, Xavier, and Butler just add to the all-around quality of what remains.  I am actually excited for this league in the coming seasons – I think it might have that tunnel-visioned basketball focus that seems to elude leagues like the SEC and Pac-12. 

  • Preseason Favorite:  Creighton, Marquette
    This was expected to be a pretty wide open league this year with Creighton (fueled by the amazing Doug McDermott) and Marquette (fueled by the media’s perennial, inexplicable love affair with Buzz Williams) receiving the most preseason hype.
  • Most Impressive:  Villanova
    There may not be a more surprisingly good start in the nation that the one at ‘Nova.  This was generally thought of as a borderline tournament team, but Jay Wright has this team playing smart and hard, and they look like a legit team, nationally, not just in the Big East.
  • Most Disappointing:  Marquette
    As great as the Villanova start has been, that is how disappointing the Marquette start has been.  They have lost five games and their best two wins were a neutral-court game against GW and a road game at CS-Fullerton.  Their other 5 wins were home games against the dregs of the nation (Southern, Grambling, New Hampshire, IUPUI, and Ball State).  One thing to say, though, is that none of their five losses were particularly “bad” losses, as all five teams are probably going to play in the tournament, but most of them weren’t even competitive.
  • “My” Favorite:  St. John’s
    All five starters back, a ton of talent, back-to-back Top-10 recruiting classes, and a national championship coach.  How is this team not better?  They have to be good, right?
  • Potential Sleepers:  Butler, Xavier, Providence
    Butler and Xavier are going to cause headaches for every opponent they face, particularly on their home floors, and Providence has one of the best inside-outside combos in the country in Bryce Cotton and Kadeem Batts.
  • Also Relevant:  Georgetown
    The one Hoya gone – Otto Porter – from last year leaves a pretty huge hole in this team, but whole rest of the roster returns to a team that did get a 2-seed.  Was Porter that good?
  • Dregs: DePaul, Seton Hall
    DePaul is always bad – and this year is no exception.  But, Seton Hall?  What is going on there?  They have already lost to two of the worst teams in the nation – Fairleigh Dickinson and St. Peter’s…at home.  There may not be a team other than Grambling that I would expect to lose home games to those two programs.  And, this is Seton Hall!
  • The Pick:  Creighton
    I went back and forth on this one and finally came up with the Blue Jays because I just think that McDermott is that much better than anyone else in this league.  So, with the best player on the floor every night, it’s hard to pick against them over the long haul.

AMERICAN

The new American Conference debuts this year with a pretty strong cast of characters, though Louisville is only in a one-year stopover before joining the ACC next year.

  • Preseason Favorite:  Louisville
    The defending national champs were the clear-cut favorites to take the first ever AAC title.
  • Most Impressive:  Louisville, UConn
    Louisville did lose to UNC, but other than that has been as good as advertised.  But, UConn – until a home loss to Stanford – has looked as good, if not better, than the Cardinals.
  • Most Disappointing:  Rutgers
    The loss of Mike Rice is certainly being felt at Rutgers…too soon?  Well, this team is dreadful.  They have lost 4 home games to mid-majors already, including one to the atrocious Fairleigh Dickinson (yes, the same FDU that beat Seton Hall on the road, but trust me – they’re BAD).
  • “My” Favorite:  SMU
    I have said it a thousand times – if I had to win one basketball game tomorrow and I could have anyone in the world coaching my team, I would pick Larry Brown.  And, now, he actually has a couple players down in Dallas, so watch out.
  • Potential Sleepers:  Cincinnati, Temple
    The Bearcats are kind of the forgotten team around these parts, but they are still a solid team that should be in contention for this title, even if it’s in an ugly fashion.  I put Temple here maybe as a homer pick, but I do think that this team is getting better and might have something to say about this conference race before it’s all said and done.
  • Also Relevant:  Memphis
    The beauty of this conference is at the top, where you have two bluebloods in Lousiville and UConn and then you have a Cincy team that is always good, an SMU team that is burgeoning, and a Memphis team that has somehow been nationally relevant forever without ever playing in a legitimate conference.  Well, the Tigers are for real this year – let’s just see if Josh Pastner actually knows how to do anything other than charm the media.
  • Dregs: Houston, Rutgers
    The non-beauty of this league lies in these two teams.  Rutgers is terrible (see above), and Houston might be worse.  They have losses to Texas Tech, San Jose State, and Louisiana-Lafayette and near-losses to Texas A&M-Corpus Cristie and Rice…ouch.
  • The Pick:  Louisville
    IThe league is good, and I wouldn’t be completely shocked if UConn or Memphis won it, but in good conscience, no one should pick against the Cards in this conference this year.

ATLANTIC 10

With Temple and Xavier gone, the new-look A-10 somehow feels about the same.  A good, deep league with a TON of intrigue.

  • Preseason Favorite:  VCU
    Havoc.  Many thought the Rams were Top-10 good this year, and easily the best team in the A-10.
  • Most Impressive:  UMass
    While VCU has struggled, UMass has been ROCK-solid and should have no trouble going to their first tournament since the ’90s.  Chaz Williams is the real deal, but the rest of the team is solid, as well.  Great job by Derek Kellogg at his alma mater.
  • Most Disappointing:  LaSalle
    After an exciting (and kind of fluky) Sweet 16 trip last year, the expectations were sky high for Dr. Giannini and the Explorers.  They only lost one starter and should have better health.  But, it hasn’t exactly gone as planned, as the Explorers have lost tough games (all to decent, but not great teams) that are seriously jeopardizing any at-large consideration they could possibly have.
  • “My” Favorite:  Saint Louis
    Lost in the preseason love for VCU and the non-conference season love for UMass is the most experienced and, quite possibly, the most talented team in the league.  I love the Billikens this year.  They were playing at a nationally elite level last year and only lost one starter – Kwamain Mitchell – who was hurt for much of the season last year.  Don’t sleep on the Billikens.
  • Potential Sleepers:  St. Joe’s, Richmond
    A talented team with an overrated coach (St. Joe’s) and a scrappy team with an underrated coach (Richmond) could each cause different kinds of problems for the top of the A-10 this year.
  • Also Relevant:  GW, Dayton
    Dayton actually found themselves in the AP Top 25 earlier this year – and justifiably so – after a phenomenal showing in Maui.  GW is on the brink of cracking the Top 25 right now after a 10-1 start that includes wins over Maryland and Creighton.
  • Dregs: Fordham, Duquesne
    No surprise here – these two teams are the perennial dregs of the A-10.  Hey, at least Duke fans can watch their senior point guard (T.J. McConnell) leading the #1 team in the nation.
  • The Pick:  Saint Louis
    Call me crazy, but I think SLU is the best team in the league, so I am going to pick them to win it.  I’m not selling VCU, and I am believing in the legitimacy of UMass.  I just think that this SLU team is so underrated that they are the best team in a very good league.
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The New Year Report: Conference Previews – Part One

New Year’s Eve is right around the corner.  Some people think of resolutions.  Others think of champagne corks.  Still others reflect back on another year gone by.  But, for me, one of the things I think of first when I think of the calendar changing is the start of the college hoops conference season.  We have almost 2 months of non-conference play in the books (some of which has been spectacular), and now we get to go into the meat of the season.  And, not to leave any stone unturned, we are going to give quick previews of all 32 D-1 conferences as to what has happened in the noncon schedule, as well as what to possibly expect going forward for the next 3 months.  This will be a 4-part series with 4 conferences previewed in each.  So, with 32 conferences to do, let’s get started with the 4 best basketball conferences in America this year – the Big Ten, ACC, Big XII, and Pac-12.

Big Ten

The best league top to bottom in America last year – by a somewhat wide margin – is, again, the best league in America this year.  With several legit national title contenders, the Big Ten goes at least 8-deep as far as tournament-caliber teams.  But, possibly the real strength of this league is that there is never a night off.  All 12 teams are solid, with tough styles of play and strong homecourt advantages.  The Big Ten may have fallen off on the gridiron, but it is thriving on the hardwood.

  • Preseason Favorite:  Michigan State
    The Spartans were everyone’s pick to be the class of this league from the jump and when they beat Kentucky at the Champions Classic, it looked like they were the clear-cut best team in the country.  But, they struggled against some inferior competition (Columbia and Oakland, in particular) and were soundly beaten on their home floor by UNC.  This is still a team that should be right there in the end, but they have shown some alarming signs, particularly lack of leadership (which is odd considering they are a veteran team with a Hall of Fame coach) and lack of frontcourt depth.
  • Most Impressive:  Ohio State, Wisconsin
    Both the Buckeyes and Badgers are undefeated so far and #3 and #4, respectively, in the AP Poll.  Whether they have supplanted MSU as the Big Ten favorites or not, these two teams have certainly added some real intrigue to the Big Ten race
  • Most Disappointing:  Michigan
    The disappointment in Ann Arbor is because of other people’s expectations.  I, honestly, am not surprised by the Wolverines apparent struggles because they have played a rough schedule and aren’t really all that good.  Remember they had to replace two NBA draft picks, including the national POY (who was their point guard).  Despite the apparent “experience” from bringing back most of the team that played for a national title last year, the Wolverines are much younger than people think – #336 out of 351 in experience.
  • “My” Favorite:  Iowa
    This is the spot where I will just spend time on the team I like most in any particular conference.  I love this Hawkeye team and honestly think that they are Sweet 16 good.  They have a TON of depth and are very, VERY well-coached.  I’m not sure they can win this league, but I’m also not sure they should be completely ruled out.
  • Potential Sleepers:  Minnesota, Indiana
    No one is talking about this Gopher team, but they do have talent.  The Hollinses are special and now that Tubby is gone, maybe they won’t underachieve.  As for the Hoosiers – it’s strange to think they are a “sleeper,” but they are under the radar and still VERY good (I am smitten for both Yogi Ferrell and Noah Vonleigh, so I might be biased here).
  • Also Relevant:  Illinois
    The Illini are doing again what they did last year – flying under the radar and winning, despite little to no hype.  I’m not entirely sure it will sustain itself, but I wouldn’t rule them out of national relevancy just yet.
  • Dregs: None
    That is what makes this conference so good.  While Northwestern, Penn State, and Nebraska won’t be competing for any conference titles, they are still really solid teams that could beat anyone on any given night.  Northwestern is probably the worst of the bunch, as they are in total rebuild mode, but Coach Collins should turn them around quickly.  Penn State is the typical cellar-dweller here, but they have Tim Frazier, who is one of the best players in the country.
  • The Pick:  Ohio State
    It is hard for me to pick against Tom Izzo, particularly with the level of talent he has there, but I see alarming signs from the Spartans and am totally sold on the OSU defense.  I think MSU is the better Final Four contender, but OSU is the better pick for Big Ten champ…if that makes any sense.

ACC

The self-proclaimed “best conference ever” might be just that next year when they add Louisville to the fold and currently down programs like Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and freshman-laden programs at N.C. State and Miami continue to rebuild.  As for this year, they’re knocking on the door, but I still think they are second to the Big Ten.

  • Preseason Favorite:  Duke
    Ho-hum…another year, another ELITE team for Coach K down in Durham.  But, being elite isn’t the only familiar feel to this Blue Devil team.  They also have a very familiar flaw – they are so top-heavy on athletic wings…yet again…without a dynamic point guard or big man.  I’ve heard this comment (I think Doogan may have made it actually) – “Duke is so good this year that Rasheed Sulaimon comes off the bench.”  That is a good point, but one that is a little weakened by the fact that they have to start Josh Hairston or Amile Jefferson at the 5.  Sulaimon is clearly one of their 5 best players, but his skills are totally overlapped by guys like Parker and Hood.  Even Dawkins and Thornton are rendered somewhat useless because Hood and Parker are so good.  Now, this is a total nitpick because this team is fantastic.  But, another concern might be greater – they have been pretty bad defensively (#101 in DefEff).  Now, that is partially inflated because of the atrocious performance against Vermont, but still it’s very un-K-like.
  • Most Impressive:  Syracuse
    If you take the Duke flaws seriously, then you have to consider Syracuse a real threat to the Devils in the Orange’s first ACC campaign.  They are special.  I don’t understand why no one is talking more about C.J. Fair because he is as good an all-around scorer as there is in the country.  And, with the incredible breakouts of freshman Tyler Ennis and, to a lesser extent, sophomore Trevor Cooney, this team is loaded for bear.
  • Most Disappointing:  Boston College
    I considered putting Noter Dame here, but only briefly because it’s pretty obviously who the biggest ACC disappointment is so far.  The Eagles were supposed to be on the brink of contention here, but are just 4-6 right now.  Granted, their losses to UMass, UConn, and even Toledo don’t look as bad as they did at the time because all three of those teams are better than advertised, but still this team should not be 4-6 right now no matter what.  Even their wins were unimpressive (a 3-point win over a bad FAU team, an overtime win over a worse Sacred Heart team, and an unimpressive win over an NAIA school). 
  • “My” Favorite:  Pittsburgh
    Jamie Dixon is on that short list of coaches that I believe in implicitly.  Now, it’s hard to tell just how good this team is because the only tough game they’ve played was their 1-point loss to Cincinnati.  But, I expect this team to be right in the thick of things all year.
  • Potential Sleepers:  Virginia
    It was hard to pick a sleeper here because I think the top of the league is clearly at the top, and there probably won’t be much challenge from the “others.”  But, I like the Cavs here because I love Coach Bennett, and I think they will cause issues all year.
  • Also Relevant:  North Carolina, Florida State, Notre Dame, Maryland, Clemson
    This conference has a ton of relevant teams, including the Jeckyll & Hyde Tar Heels, the gigantic Seminole team, the disappointing-but-talented Irish, the incredibly-well-coached Terrapins, and the sneaky Tigers.
  • Dregs: Virginia Tech, Miami
    Total rebuilds in Blacksburg and Coral Gables will lead to some bad basketball in each place.  Last year’s Miami season seems like a strange blip in the program’s trajectory, but maybe Larranega can make that not so.
  • The Pick:  Duke
    I thought long and hard about taking the ‘Cuse, but I think that the Dukies come through in the end and win this conference.  It’s just so hard to make all these road trips for the first time, so that might catch up to Boeheim’s team.  Then again, many guys in this conference are seeing that zone for the first time, so the edge might actually be with the Orange.  I still trust the talent in Durham, though, to win this league.

BIG XII

Just a solid all-around league yet again this year, the Big XII has it all – multiple championship contenders, depth (almost) top to bottom, and what should be a great race all year.

  • Preseason Favorite:  Kansas
    All of the talent that descended upon Lawrence this year bolstered them to not just Big XII favorites, but potential championship favorites.  But, KU being the “team to beat” in the Big XII just comes with the season.
  • Most Impressive:  Oklahoma State
    Kansas has sputtered and OK State – who actually received as many 1st-place votes from Big XII coaches as Kansas – has played the best ball in the league so far.  For a while, Marcus Smart looked like far and away the best player in the country.  He has come back to Earth a little, but the rest of the team continues to roll.  With the exception of a Memphis team taking revenge after being dominated two weeks prior, the Cowboys have been VERY impressive.
  • Most Disappointing:  Kansas State
    The Wildcats weren’t really supposed to challenge for a Big XII title, but they have made themselves almost entirely irrelevant.  It is too early to count them out, but there is very little evidence that his team will be anything but an also-ran in the conference race this year.
  • “My” Favorite:  Iowa State
    This team is fantastic.  Mayor Hoiberg has done such a great job assembling talent in Ames and really employing them in a way that completely maximizes his personnel and minimizes his exposure to poor matchups.  It won’t be long until Hoiberg is coaching in the Association, but the Cyclones should enjoy this ride while they’ve got it.
  • Potential Sleepers:  Texas
    Just when it looked like Rick Barnes may go the way of Mack Brown, the Longhorns are putting together quite an impressive non-conference slate here, highlighted by a win in Chapel Hill on Wednesday.  They probably aren’t Big XII title contenders, but they could play themselves into Tournament discussions at this rate.
  • Also Relevant:  Baylor, Oklahoma
    Baylor actually looks really good and should really make that middle-to-top area of the Big XII race incredibly interesting.  And, don’t look now, but the Sooners are 10-1 with their only loss coming to Michigan State.
  • Dregs: TCU, Texas Tech
    Texas Tech is bad, but TCU is utterly dreadful – as evidenced by a HOME loss to LONGWOOD (who will appear in the “Dregs” section of one of the worst conferences in the country).
  • The Pick:  Oklahoma State
    “The Fire Swamp?  We’ll never survive…” 
    “Nonsense, you’re only saying that because no one ever has.”
    Beating Kansas in the Big XII?  That is about as tall an order as dragging Princess Buttercup through the fire swamp, but Marcus Smart may just be the Dread Pirate Roberts, and I am going to go out on a limb and take the Cowboys here to more consistently navigate the murky waters of Big XII play than the youthful (and excessively talented) Jayhawks.

PAC-12

The Pac is back, folks.  I think that you could easily make the case that this is the 3rd-best (and possibly the single deepest) conference in the country – all of a sudden.  There won’t be a single easy game this year out West and any number of teams could make a tournament run.  All that said, there is one clear favorite.

  • Preseason Favorite:  Arizona
    The “forgotten” Top-6 team in the preseason because they weren’t invited to the Champions Classic.
  • Most Impressive:  Arizona
    And, it’s not really that close.  The ‘Cats have been the best team in the country, let alone the Pac-12.
  • Most Disappointing:  Washington
    When do we start talking about Lorenzo Romar the same way we talk about Rick Barnes and Tubby Smith?  The dude can flat-out recruit (look at the NBA careers of Romar’s alums – Brandon Roy, Klay Thompson, even Sixers rookie Tony Wroten – just to name a few), but he really struggles to win games.  This team, while very talented all around, doesn’t have that one transcedent talent and might be the worst team in the league.
  • “My” Favorite:  Arizona
    In a strange twist, I am actually picking “the” favorite as “my” favorite because this team is that good, #1 in the polls, and still underrated.  Their frontcourt is off the charts good, and I still believe that Nick Johnson is the most valuable player on that team.  Throw in the enormously underappreciated T.J. McConnell (who I’ve watched a ton of times as a Duquesne Duke) and you have yourself the best team in the nation.
  • Potential Sleepers:  Utah
    I considered pretty much every other team for “sleeper” worthy, but kept coming back to the Utes mainly because of just how under-the-radar they are, as opposed to the other possibilities.  Maybe I’m basing this too much on one single result (an 81-64 pummelling of a really good BYU team), but I am ready to say that the one team that is consistently overlooked in this league that will come up and bite you might be the Runnin’ Utes.
  • Also Relevant:  Oregon, UCLA, Arizona State, Cal, Stanford
    This upper-middle portion of the Pac is sensationally interesting.  Oregon is probably the best of the bunch with transfers James Young and Mike Moser seemlessly folding into this team.  But, UCLA looks exceptional, as well.  ASU has possibly the league’s best player, while Cal has possibly the nation’s best coach, and Stanford is talented enough to save Johnny Dawkins’ job this year.  What a race this is going to be.
  • Dregs:  None
    I’m not a huge fan of the teams in Washington, but it would be hard to characterize them as “dregs.”  Outside of Tempe, this conference doesn’t have the top-notch firepower to really join the conversation of best conference, but in terms of top-to-bottom quality, only the Big Ten even has an argument and they might actually lose it.
  • The Pick:  Arizona
    I would probably pick the ‘Cats in any conference in the country, but here in the Pac, I didn’t even have to think about it.

COMING SOON:  PART TWO (which includes the SEC, Big East, American, and A-10)

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Today’s Top Twelve: 2013 Eagles MVPs

YOUR First-Place Philadelphia Eagles…that has a nice ring to it.  It’s not exactly something that sounds weird or uncommon considering we’re really only two years removed from a decade-plus era of division dominance, but from the sheer depth of those two long years, it certainly is a beautiful phrase.  As most of you know, I actually tend not to overreact.  I believe football – and its 16-game season – is just one huge “sample size issue,” so I usually come off as an overoptimistic ray of sunshine during the seemingly darkest days and a sobering bath of cold water during the seemingly brightest of days.  And, while the Eagles commentary on the site has been non-existent, this year has been no different.  I was preaching “cold water” patience after the Washington game when the world declared Chip Kelly’s offense nothing short of “revolutionary.”  But, I was preaching “ray of sunshine” patience after the Broncos annihilated a team that looked completely lost with a coach that all-of-a-sudden looked overmatched.  Patience.  That is what we needed in both instances.  Well, after the beating the Redskins on Sunday and entering the bye on a 3-game winning streak, I am ready to actually agree with the commonly-held belief that our Eagles are in the driver’s seat in the NFC Least.  And, while it probably will only result in a 9-7 division title and a home dog status in the playoffs when San Fran or Carolina come to town, this is progress.  And, progress is what we needed so desperately after the last half-decade of the Reid Era were littered with quick fixes, free agency fool’s gold, and tricking ourselves into thinking that on-paper talent was more important that team chemistry, proper coaching selections, players that hunger for victory, and (as Doogan as always refers to) the SKILL of staying healthy.  And, as the great Bill Walsh always said – “you set base camp in the playoffs…then you climb the mountain.”  Just get to the tournament.  And, that is what the Eagles are in a great position to do over the next month and a half.  In Chip We Trust!  

But, how did we get here?  Well, below, in my humble opinion, are the 12 most important people to shape the 2013 Eagles resurgence.  

Honorable Mentions:  Mychal Kendricks (if the list went to 13, he would be #13 – he’s been great in his second year, I just personally want a little more consistency from a strongside linebacker but that will almost certainly come with experience – he’s a budding star); Riley Cooper (after looking like a guy who didn’t belong in the NFL for much of the season, he has exploded with Foles at the helm – it has to make one think about whether Foles’ development has been this good for Cooper or whether Cooper’s has been part of the reason for the Foles explosion…hmmmm); Brandon Boykin (he’s been terrific in the slot and even stepped up when he had to start); Benny Logan (has been such a revelation, that he made Isaac Sopouaga completely expendable – which, in and of itself, was a good thing – and has really blossomed, helping to make this 2013 draft class look like it could be really special); Colt Anderson (there is a rare Eagles post when I don’t mention Mr. Anderson – he hasn’t seemed to make quite the difference that he has in years’ past, but you would still be hard-pressed to find a person on this planet that covers kicks and punts better than my boy, Colt); Donnie Jones (we probably all forgot how nice it is to actually have a good punter)  

12). Cedric Thornton – A defensive lineman with only 1 sack is among the dozen most valuable players on a first-place team?  And, selected over a linebacker pushing 70 tackles through 11 games?  Well, I think so.  I think Thornton’s development has been absolutely crucial to the strides that this defense has made.  He has played the run exceptionally well and is rushing the passer so well that teams seem to start sliding protection in his direction, which has opened up things for the edge rushers.  Thornton has shown the potential to be a real star in this league and may even get some Pro Bowl consideration from those in the know. 

11). Cary Williams – Now, I was “offline” during the whole training camp fiasco, so I never got to chime in on Cary Williams and the ordeal with the sconces (or whatever the hell that word is), but let’s just say that the summation of my thoughts were – “Wow, this is being way overblown.”  Now, I don’t fully blame the media – who certainly has a history of blowing things way out of proportion because I think Cary’s refusal to just shut the hell up certainly aided the overdramatization of it all.  But, really, what were we really fired up about?  Seriously.  I think Williams’ addition – not necessarily on the field because he has proven to be not much more than an average cornerback – has been team-changing.  We suffered through two years of a defense led by a polite, mild-mannered offensive line coach-turned coordinator who was abused by a foul-mouthed, cranky defensive line coach.  On the field, we were subject to a cornerback who was as overly cerebral as he was overly paid and a defensive end who pretended to be “cultured” all the while emulating the crankiness of his position coach clearly to the detriment of the defense, as a whole.  And, “cerebral” and “cultured” may be great at dinner parties, but those traits don’t exactly win football games.  Now, I am not at all insinuating that Cary Williams isn’t intelligent (far from it, actually) nor am I implying that he isn’t cultured (hell, he taught me what a sconce is – though, I’m still not sure I’m even spelling it right), but what I am explicitly saying is that Cary Williams brought with him the F-YOU attitude that this defense has lacked since the great Brian Dawkins left for the Rocky Mountains.  This F-YOU attitude has pervaded throughout the defense and now they play with anger.  Again, Williams has been little more than a mediocre cornerback in his play (which, has sadly been quite the upgrade from last year), but I don’t think I’m overstating the effect a guy like that can have on a young group – especially when he wears a Super Bowl ring on his finger (and loves to talk about that…among other things).  

The Most Valuable Mediocre Cornerback in the League

 

10). Connor Barwin – If you were to judge Barwin’s impact from just the past couple of games, he would actually probably be a good bit higher on this list.  But, I want to take the whole season into account, and Barwin took a little time getting established on this defense.  But, since he found his way, he has been a man on a mission.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see more dominant games ahead for the guy who rides his bike to work.  

Wait, there are eight Eagles more valuable than the greatest QB of all-time?!?

 

9). Nick Foles – What?!?!?  The NFL’s leader in passer rating is only the 9th most valuable guy on his own team?  Yes, he is.  I’m not trying to sell him short here.  I’m just saying that Foles has only started 5 of 11 games this year, and one of those was arguably the worst game ever played by an NFL quarterback.  All that said, the 4 games (plus most of the first Giants game) that Foles has been out there have been legendary.  And, there is no doubt that the reason that the Eagles are now the legit favorites to win the division is squarely because of the stuff Foles has done.  But, I just have to give deference to some of the other guys who actually have played more than half of the team’s games.  

8). Jason Peters – Jason Peters has been considered – by many actual “experts” – the best tackle in football, when healthy.  And, while he hasn’t completely returned to his pre-injury form this year, he has come around as of late and is playing his best football of the year right now.  And, that is not surprising, considering he is still just barely a year removed from rupturing his Achilles tendon – TWICE.  If Peters is what he is and isn’t going to return to his All-Pro form – which is entirely possible given his age and health history – then the Eagles still have a high-quality left tackle, who is tailor-made for this system.  If Peters is actually still recovering and will only get healthier – which is also quite possible given the severity of his injury – then we might not yet totally realize just how incredible this offense could be.  With the ever-improving rookie Johnson on one side, a returned-to-form Peters on the other, and a stellar interior (more on that coming up), the sky is the limit for this unit.   

(NOTE:  I never played offensive line in the NFL – or on any level of football.  I never coached or scouted or evaluated talent for a football team on any level.  I don’t even know most of the techniques needed to become a good offensive lineman.  But, line play is one of my favorite things to pay attention to, and while I don’t really know anything about what makes a good lineman, I like to think that I do, so humor me in these “evaulations,” as I like to think of them…) 

 

7). Fletcher Cox – Similar to my feeling on Barwin, as stated above, I believe that just looking at this team over the past month or so, Cox may actually be at the top of this list.  But, he was a bit inconsistent in the beginning of the year, which is completely understandable, considering he’s only in his second year in the league, and his first year in this brand-new system.  It is incredibly encouraging (I am getting downright giddy about his potential) that every game for the past couple of weeks, Cox has put in the best game of his career.  He keeps upping his play every time out – capped by this week’s utter domination of the Washington Professional Football Team, where he lived in the backfield.  He saved what could have been a devastating collapse on that final play when he forced RG3-and-out (see what I did there?) to give away the final drive when Boykin fair caught the pass in the end zone for the game-winning interception.  Coach Kelly said that “Boykin saved his butt,” but what he really meant – and everyone knows it – is that Cox saved his butt.  While I am loving the offensive line, I am even more bullish about this defensive line, which is starting to be utterly dominant week in and week out, and there isn’t a guy over 25 among them.  It is not unreasonable to think that Fletcher Cox might be the best player on the best D-line in football within a year or two.  

6). Evan Mathis – Evan Mathis has become an unknown star on this team.  Even in the dreadful seasons of 2011 and 2012, the one consistently bright spot on this team has been Mathis, who has – without any recognition – gone out and gotten the job done.  He is big enough to protect the middle, strong enough to open holes for Shady (and, even more so, the inside-the-tackle running threat of Bryce Brown when he comes in to change it up), and, maybe most importantly, athletic enough to hit the second-level or pull, as this complex offense requires.  Maybe a bit of a head-scratcher as a Top-6 MVP on this team, but the interior of this line has been sensational all year (and, particularly during Foles’ ascension), and a lot of that credit belongs to Mathis.  

He's everything I hate...and that's why I love him

 

5). DeSean Jackson – Cocky, quick-tempered, diva wide receivers are a dime a dozen in the NFL.  And, many of them are nowhere near worth the trouble.  But, we have one that is.  This offense works because of DeSean Jackson.  And, sometimes it works best when Jackson doesn’t even touch the ball (just don’t tell him that).  He is so feared in the NFL, that every single defensive gameplan that the Eagles face is tailored towards taking away the D-Jax home run.  Safeties can’t cheat on the run.  Corners can’t blitz.  And, most importantly, the focus of a defense is always tested because one misstep could result 7 points.  The overattention paid to Jackson has opened up things for the emerging Riley Cooper, and more importantly, has allowed Kelly and the staff to design plays to find mismatches – particularly LeSean McCoy on a linebacker, which was perfectly exemplified Sunday when McCoy scored on the wheel route against his ill-equipped defender – linebacker Ryan Kerrigan.  If you’ve ever played a team sport, you know that Jackson is one of those guys that you love to have wearing your colors.  There is something to be said for the guy on your team that just gets under the skin of opposing teams.  Opposing teams expend a whole lot of energy hating DeSean, which, if it takes them off their game just a little bit, plays right into DeSean’s master plan and is a big part of his, let’s just call it, “charm.”  

4). Jason Kelce – What is the definition of the Most Valuable Player?  Well, that debate runs hot at times (just ask any Mike Trout supporter), but to me, it’s pretty simple.  A team’s MVP is the player who would have the most negative affect on a team’s success were they to no longer be a part of that team.  Even with a clear definition, it is still an interesting debate because there is almost never a way to truly measure this – even qualitatively, let alone quantitatively (with all due respect to supporters of the grossly overrated baseball statistic of WAR).  That being said, what happened last year after Jason Kelce was injured in the later part of the Eagles Week Two win over the soon-to-be Super Bowl Champion, Baltimore Ravens (that’s right, most people forget that 1 of the FOUR wins the Eagles had last year was over the World Champs)?  Let me give a quick recap (VERY quick because everyone would probably just as soon forget it) – after beating the Ravens to go to 2-0, the Birds went to Arizona and laid an egg before coming back and limping through an improbable win over the Giants at the Linc.  The Birds were 3-1 before the wheels fell off and they only won 1 of their final 12 games.  There have been countless reasons cited as to what happened – everything from divided locker rooms to coaching staff infighting to flat-out bad players.  But, the one thing that I have not really heard at all was the loss of the center.  The NFL is littered with promising seasons derailed by an injury to a team’s center and the Birds not only lost a center last year, but one of the best in the league.  Now, I am not saying that the 2012 Eagles were a 12-4 team with a healthy Jason Kelce, but I think the 2013 Eagles could be a 10-6 team with a healthy Jason Kelce – and a playoff afterthought without him.  That is pretty much exactly how I would define “valuable.”  

3). DeMeco Ryans – I seriously debated putting Ryans #1 on this list – and how crazy would that have sounded 12 months ago?  Now, I love DeMeco Ryans.  I loved him in Houston, and I was elated when the Birds acquired Ryans from the Texans for, essentially, a 4th-round pick.  But, he was borderline bad last year and, at times, looked like he was all but done as an NFL player.  Fast-forward to 2013 and he is, in my opinion, the far and away most important player on this surprisingly rejuvenated Eagles defense.  He flies to the ball, rarely misses a tackle, and always seems to be in the right place and the right time.  He has seems to be – despite being, by all accounts, a quiet, reserved guy – the unquestioned leader of this defense.  And, as history shows, the best defenses in the NFL are those led by the middle linebackers.  (Don’t agree?  Why don’t you mention that to Ray Lewis, Mike Singletary, or Jack Lambert…)  And yet, there’s an interesting twist in the backstory of the Great Ryans Renaissance of 2013 – Ryans was only made expendable in Houston because (a) he did not look like the same player after rupturing his Achilles in 2010 and (b) he seemed like a poor fit for the Texans’ new 3-4 defense.  Now, three years removed from probably the worst injury a linebacker could suffer (see the concerns laid out in a nice article here, written a year ago – before Ryans’ resurgence), Ryans is somehow looking much like the stud who busted into the league in 2006 with over 150 tackles for the Texans.  And, even more incredibly, he has been doing it for a team that plays a whole lot of the very 3-4 brand of defense for which Ryans was considered a total misfit.   

The Heart and Soul of the New-Look Eagles D

 

2). LeSean McCoy – Yes, this team’s surprising success has been on the backs of the unexpected defensive resurgence and the even-more-unexpected emergence of Nick Foles as the greatest quarterback the game has ever seen.  But, while those two welcome developments may be the most surprising, the most important Eagle on the field this year comes as a surprise to no one.  With all respect to that guy up in Minneapolis, Shady McCoy is quite possibly the best running back on the planet.  And, he couldn’t be more perfect for the brilliant offensive mind of Chip Kelly.  He hits the holes when they’re there and makes people miss in the backfield when they’re not.  He is a terrific pass-catcher and a very underrated pass-blocker.  He is the talent that makes this offense go and would be – if not for the stupid stats being put up in the Mile High City – a legitimate candidate for league MVP.  He has been that good.  My only complaint is that he needs to stop giving us heart attacks with these seemingly season-ending injuries that only keep him out a series or two.  

1). Chip Kelly – I can say it when it’s true – and it’s true more often than I would like to believe – I WAS WRONG.  I was not a huge fan of the Chip Kelly hire.  I wouldn’t say that I outright hated it because I was intrigued and saw the lure, but I really thought that this team needed an identity of toughness to pull itself from the wreckage left by the last regime that – while wildly successful – stayed too long and left behind a dumpster fire of poor drafts, jaded veterans, and a rabid, yet cynical fanbase just waiting for a reason to believe.  And, for some reason, 85-points-per-game in Eugene, Oregon, while intriguing, didn’t exactly scream “toughness” to me.  But, man, was I wrong.  I don’t think I could create even a fictional coach that would more be exactly what I would want in my head coach.  He is highly involved in the analytics, but not afraid to go by his “gut.”  He loves the high-powered, high-paced offensive schemes, but, still believes completely in running the football.  He believes that football is won in the trenches by large men.  He values efficiency and a minimization of errors without sacrificing explosive play.   He believes in his offensive system, but understands when it needs tweaking.  He is not too stubborn to change his mind and admit where he was wrong, but he is also the unquestioned head man, who takes full accountability of everything under his purview. He recognizes the things on which he is not an expert and trusts the men he has chosen to fill those gaps.  He is solely focused on how to be the best – all the way down to how you eat and sleep – and leads this by example.  And, most importantly, he only cares about one thing – winning.  Time will tell if all of this adds up to the long-elusive Super Bowl title in Philadelphia, but if you couldn’t tell, I’m smitten.  I’m a believer.  And, I didn’t even want to be.  But, there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that the Eagles success this year is more of a result of Chip Kelly than anyone else in the entire organization.  And, I don’t think it’s really all that close…

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It’s Gametime!

I know it’s been a long time since I’ve contributed to BSB.  Can I blame a newborn, a two-year old, a second job, and TWO job changes?  Well, I’m going to, whether I can or not.  And, while my first post back should be a post-mortem on the Phillies season or my take on the Chip Kelly Era, I’m really just going to start fresh.  A brand-new college hoops season kicks off on Friday with 136 games on the slate.  With 58 more on Saturday and 31 on Sunday, that is 225 games this weekend alone!  So, let’s take a look at the slate.    

THE BEST GAMES OF THE WEEKEND

Friday 6:30 – Maryland vs #18 Connecticut (in Brooklyn, NY) 
In the first collegiate edition of a great season of hoops scheduled for the Barclay Center this year, this is an interesting matchup of one probable tournament team and one potential tournament team.  Dez Wells might be a star this year and, if so, the Terps should be dangerous in their final year in the ACC.  On the other side, the Huskies have one of the best (albeit undersized) backcourts in the country with Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright.  And, both team return a lot of core players other than their stars, so this should be decent basketball right out of the gate.

Friday 7:00 – St. John’s vs #20 Wisconsin (in Sioux Falls, SD)
Like the UConn-Maryland game above, this pits one team that is likely a tournament team against another team that – if the pieces come together – might actually have a higher upside.  The Johnnies could be really good this year…or barely mediocre.  The Badgers will always be good as long as Bo Ryan is there.  I guess it’s more of a home game for Wisconsin, but a neutral-site game in Sioux Falls, SD, is anyone’s guess.  

Friday 8:00 – Georgetown vs #19 Oregon (in South Korea)
In probably the game of the weekend, the Otto Porter-less Hoyas travel to South Korea to face a really, really good Oregon team.  The Ducks lost 4 starters from last year’s team, but have the potential to be better this year because of the new faces to Eugene that aren’t that new to the college hoops fan.  With sophomore sensations Dominic Artis and Damyean Dotson in the backcourt, they bolstered their squad with UNLV transfer Mike Moser and Houston transfer Joseph Young (who led the Cougars in scoring last year at 18/game).  They also added a couple stellar JUCO transfers.  

Friday 10:00 – Colorado at #25 Baylor
If the South Korea game isn’t the best of the weekend, this one is.  The Buffs lost Anthony Roberson, but return Spencer Dinwiddie and Askia Booker in one of the more underrated backcourts in the nation.  Baylor is – as always – INCREDIBLY athletic, but will probably be rather undisciplined.  Even on the road, this might be a signature win for the Buffs right off the bat.  

Saturday 2:00 – Manhattan at LaSalle
This is more of a Philly-centric pick here, as the Explorers will try and build off of the Sweet 16 run from last year (with everyone except Galloway back) against a really tough Manhattan team that is the favorite to win a solid MAAC this year.  

Saturday 5:00 – Temple at Penn
And, in a complete homer pick, the Temple Owls open their season with a Big Five game in the greatest basketball arena in the world.  

GAMES THAT MIGHT MATTER COME SELECTION SUNDAY

Friday 5:00 – Oklahoma at Alabama
Come early March, when the word “bubble” is the most oft-used word in sports, this game may be referenced more than you might imagine.  Neither of these teams are probably good enough to compete in their respective leagues, but they both are definitely good enough for Tournament consideration.  And, if they are both on the bubble a head-to-head game – regardless of it taking place on November 8th – could be huge.   

Friday 6:00 – Boston College at Providence
A very interestesting game at the Dunkin Donut Center, as two teams that are kind of forgotten on the global college hoops landscape have legit chances to be relevant this year.   

UPSET ALERTS

Friday 7:00 – Gardner-Webb at Xavier
Xavier is in complete rebuild mode, which is the only reason a Big South team would even have a shot to go in and beat them.  And GW is a veteran team that should be decent this year.  Watch out, Muskies.  

Friday 8:00 – Lehigh at Minnesota
C.J. McCollum is gone and the Mountain Hawks are kind of in rebuild mode, but they brought in one of the best recruiting classes in program history, so if they can gel early enough, they have a shot against a shaky Gopher team.  

Friday 8:00 – Lafayette at Villanova
Didn’t Lafayette beat the ‘Cats last year?  Well, the Leopards are even better this year (though, so is ‘Nova), so who knows?  

Friday 8:00 – Buffalo at Texas A&M
Texas A&M hasn’t recovered from the departure of the incredibly underrated Mark Turgeon and could struggle this year.  Whereas, the Bulls of Buffalo are a decent MAC program that has another decent roster this year.  

Friday 8:00 – Mercer at Texas
Rick Barnes might actually be on the hot seat if not for the incredibly hot seat of UT’s football coach, Mack Brown.  Either way, Barnes has not recruited well lately, which is a death sentence to a guy who has had Kevin Durant, LaMarcus Aldridge, D.J. Augustin, B.J. Tyler, Terrence Rencher, etc, etc, etc, and never made a Final Four.  And, they welcome an experienced, outstanding Mercer team that returns 4 starters (including their stud PG Langston Hall) from a team that finished ahead of the “Dunk City” FGCU team in the A-Sun last year.  

Friday 9:00 – Oakland at #12 North Carolina
Oakland returns 4 starters from a decent team a year ago for their inaugural season in the Horizon League.  UNC is a little in flux with off-the-court issues  surrounding guys like P.J. Hairston and on-the-court issues surrounding guys like J.M. McAdoo.  I don’t think the Heels will lose in the Dean Dome here, but they better come to play.  

Friday 9:00 – Florida Gulf Coast at Nebraska
Not sure if anyone’s ever heard of FGCU, but they’re not bad.  And, while Nebraska is improving, they are still not really a competitive Big Ten team and are vulnerable here.  

Friday 9:00 – Northern Colorado at Kansas St.
It’s hard to say enough about the coaching job Bruce Weber turned in in his first season in Manhattan, KS, last year.  But, Rodney McGruder and Angel Rodriguez are both gone, and it remains to be seen if Will Spradling and Shane Southwell can step up and lead this team.  And, they have to find out real fast, as the other UNC is one of the more under-the-radar mid-majors this year and might challenge the perennial top dogs in the Big Sky.  Also to note – if the refs actually start calling the game the way they have been asked to, then depth could be at a premium this year, and UNC is one of the deeper teams in the country, whereas K-State is not.  Hmm…  

Friday 10:00 – Cal Poly at #6 Arizona
This is kind of crazy because Arizona is loaded this year, but Cal Poly is a dangerous team that returns a large part of the team that knocked off UCLA last year around this time.  

Friday Midnight – Drexel at #22 UCLA
Speaking of knocking off UCLA, the Drexel Dragons will try and erase the awful memories of a terribly disappointing season last year with one big midnight victory.  But, aside from playing in Pauly Pavilion, there might be a body-clock issue here, as a midnight game will probably favor the West Coasters.  Then again, these are college kids and when I was in college, I was at my best in the early hours of the morning.  

Saturday noon – USC-Upstate at Virginia Tech
I’m not even sure this would be a huge upset.  Va Tech has fallen on really hard times (shouldn’t have fired Mr. Greenberg), while USC-Upstate is a program that is really on the rise (despite a disappointing setback last year) that returns all 5 starters.  

Saturday 4:00 – Wagner at Penn St.
The best team in the NEC versus possibly the worst in the Big Ten.  Still a big advantage for the Big Tenners, but would you be that surprised?  

Saturday 7:00 – St. Joe’s at Vermont
I love to kick St. Joe’s when it’s down, so let me just say that Vermont should probably be favored in this game (I haven’t seen a line, so they might be).  

RANKED TEAMS WITH WALKOVERS

Friday 3:00 – North Florida at #10 Florida
This probably won’t be a very competitive game, as the Ospreys of North Florida are a mediocre team from the A-Sun, but it will give us our first look at dynamic freshman PG for the Gators, Kasey Hill.  And, we should get a prolonged, 40-minute look at him, as they may have as few as five players dress for this game with all the issues going on in Gainesville. 
  

Friday 7:00 – UNC-Asheville at #1 Kentucky
Our first look at the WildKittens.  Even the best UNC-Asheville teams of recent memory wouldn’t have a shot at Rupp Arena, but this Asheville team is gonna get BLOWED OUT.  Should be fun to see just how athletic and cohesive this new-look UK team is. 
  

Friday 7:00 – McNeese St. at #2 Michigan St.
While the raw, uber-talented #1 team is beating up on Asheville, the veteran, experienced #2 team should be doing the same to McNeese St. 
  

Friday 7:00 – Davidson at #4 Duke
Our first look at Jabari Parker and this year’s Dukies is against an always-tough Davidson team.  The Wildcats lost a lot from last year, including 2-time SoCon POY, Jake Cohen, so they probably won’t put up more than 10 minutes of fight. 
  

Friday 7:00 – UMass-Lowell at #7 Michigan
The first ever D-I game for UMass-Lowell probably won’t be one to remember. 
  

Friday 7:00 – Cornell at #8 Syracuse
Wait, Syracuse is playing a non-conference game against a lower-level team in the Carrier Dome?  No way… 
  

Friday 7:00 – Illinois St. at #14 VCU
Shaka Smart’s havoc-filled Rams are loaded yet again.  They get an opening day opponent that is only scary in reputation, as the Redbirds lost all 5 starters and are in compete rebuild this year. 
  

Friday 7:00 – Miami (OH) at #21 Notre Dame
I’m not 100% sold on the Irish this year, but they should have no trouble with a rebuilding Red Hawks team. 

Friday 7:00 – James Madison at #24 Virginia
Last year’s JMU team that made the tournament wasn’t that good, while last year’s UVA team that didn’t make the tournament was that good.  This UVA team should be better, while the JMU team is worse.  Should be a nice-looking win early for UVA that might not seem as good later on. 

Friday 8:00 – LA-Monroe at #5 Kansas
Welcome to our college hoops lives for a couple months, Andrew Wiggins.  He has a cushy start, as ULM is terrible.  Aside from Wiggins, I might be more eager for the collegiate debuts of dynamic SG Wayne Selden and 7-foot monster Joel Embiid.  While not as heralded (or as good) as Wiggins, they will probably be in our lives a little bit longer before jumping to the Association. 

Friday 8:00 – Mississippi Valley St. at #8 Oklahoma St.
Another terrible team on the road against arguably the nation’s best player.  The only unanimous selection to the All-American team, Marcus Smart, might only play a half in this one.     

Friday 8:00 – Christian Brothers (D2) at #13 Memphis
Hey, Josh, you’re a big-time program  who is now in a big-time conference.  Act like it and stop playing D-II teams.  This Memphis roster boasts maybe the best backcourt in the nation, but it’s pretty crowded with the addition of Michael Dixon from Mizzou, so playing time could be interesting all year. 

Friday 8:00 – Southern at #17 Marquette
I’m officially sick of the massive overrating of Buzz Williams, so I will not be tuning into this one even if it is on one of my 1000 cable channels. 

Saturday noon – Morgan St. at #11 Ohio St.
At first, I didn’t understand the decision of DeSean Thomas to leave OSU for the NBA draft.  He was a STUD in Columbus.  But, then, when I heard that he was signed to a 7-figure contract in France after getting cut by the Spurs, I realized that there is so much more to these decisions than my enjoyment.  Anyway, people are touting Aaron Craft’s supporting cast (Lenzell Smith, Sam Thompson, LaQuinton Ross, etc.),  but I am not sold.  And, it’s just that – not sold.  I don’t disagree, but I don’t know enough to agree.  And, it’s not like we’ll learn anything here.  Morgan is a contender in the MEAC, but no MEAC will walk into Columbus on Opening Day and win. 

Saturday 1:00 – College of Charleston at #3 Louisville
I like this Charleston team (as usual) and like their move to the CAA.  But, Louisville’s press should run over just about any mid-major in the Yum! Center before they have a chance to set their rotations or learn each other’s cuts and such.  This could get ugly pretty quickly. 

Saturday 2:00 – Emporia St. (D2) at #16 Wichita St.
I’m interested to see how this Shocker team deals with the success of the Final Four run.  And, did Cleanthony Early just have an amazing month or is he really THAT good? 

Saturday 7:00 – Bryant at #15 Gonzaga
This is a long trip for Bryant, but I like that they scheduled up the year after breaking through to real respectability.  It should be interesting to see if they can build on a great 2012-13.  But, it won’t start here.  The Zags are too good. 

Saturday 8:00 – #23 New Mexico at Alabama A&M
I love the Lobos this year.  They have everyone back, except Tony Snell, who bolted for the NBA.  I’m not sure why they are on the road at a SWAC team that is usually just looking for a paycheck, but they wouldn’t have any trouble if it was played on Mars.  

Sunday 1:00 – Stetson at #21 Notre Dame
Another Notre Dame game.  My same sentiments apply, though I think Stetson can hang with them for a half or so. 

Sunday 4:00 – Northern Kentucky at #1 Kentucky
The WildKittens are at it again on Sunday and should be able to put on another show.    

OTHERS OF INTEREST

Friday 7:00 – Chicago St. at Indiana
Should be no problem in the first game of the “year after” in Bloomington.  I think they will be better than people think because I believe in Tom Crean, but chances like last year don’t come along too often.  

Friday 9:00 – Murray St. at Valparaiso
This is a great matchup of two of the stalwart mid-major programs.  But, Isaiah Cannon isn’t walking through that door.  Bryce Drew isn’t walking through that door.  Both programs are in a bit of a rebuild, but will still compete for the top of their respective conferences. 

Friday 9:00 – USC at Utah St.
Andy Enfield brings “Dunk City” to Hollywood?!?  Hold on a second – gimme Utah St. at home to welcome Enfield to the West Coast on a sour note. 

Friday 9:30 – UNC-Wilmington at Iowa
I’m very interested to see this Iowa team in action.  I think they’re really, really good, and possibly dark horse Big Ten title contender good.  If you haven’t seen them play under Philly’s own Franny O’Hanlon, you should learn the names Devyn Marble, Mike Gesell, Aaron White, Melsahn Basabe, and Adam Woodbury.  That starting five can play with anyone and they are deep, as they have at least four starter-quality players off the bench in Anthony Clemmons, Josh Oglesby, Zach McCabe, and the most high-profile and high-upside of them all, Jarrod Uthoff – the Wisconsin transfer that Bo Ryan originally tried to block from all Big Ten schools.  This Hawkeye team is slated to be one of my “pet” teams all year, so you might get tired of hearing about them… 

Friday 10:00 – Bucknell at Stanford
Coach Dawkins might be in some trouble out in Palo Alto.  And, they better not open the season 0-1 because this is a Bucknell team in major rebuild mode after losing 46% of their minutes and 60% of their points from a year ago. 

Sunday 3:00 – UMass at Boston College
This might be the highlight of Sunday’s slate, at least for me.  BC is a sleeper team in the ACC, while UMass is as much of a sleeper as you can with the best player in the A-10.  But, I guess Chaz Williams is easy to overlook since he’s listed at 5’9″ and realistically no bigger than 5’5″. 

EDITOR’S PICKS

Friday 7:00 – Delaware at Richmond
I wonder what this UD team has in store for us this year.  They could be pretty solid.  An Opening Day win at Richmond would be a nice start. 

Friday 7:00 – Belmont at Lipscomb
“The Battle of the Boulevard” is the best rivalry in sports that no one knows about.  Now that these two teams are no longer in the same conference, they get these two WARS out of the way early.  But, Opening Day?  That’s ridiculous! 

Friday 7:30 – Navy at Towson
This could be a banner year for Towson led by Vermont transfer Four McGlynn and all-everything forward Jerrelle Benimon. 

Friday 8:00 – Coastal Carolina at Akron
A solid low-major program visits a solid mid-major program.  Could be interesting, but probably won’t be. 

Friday 8:00 – Viterbo (D2) at North Dakota St.
An odd one to include here, except that North Dakota St. has a TON of talent.  And, I am not just talking relative to their level.  They have a TON of talent.  This might be the best team in the history of the Summit League, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they were a 12- or 13-seed come March. 

Friday 8:00 – Marist at Stony Brook
Stony Brook is, again, the class of the America East, while Marist is, again, a middling MAAC program.  But, the MAAC is a much better league, so this is a good spot for both teams to possibly pick up a quality win right off the bat. 

Friday 9:00 – Weber St. at BYU
Two trivia questions:  1). Who is the only BYU player ever to be in the nation’s top-10 in scoring as a sophomore?  2). Who, along with Danny Ainge, are the only two BYU players to reach 1,000 points before their junior season?  If you said Jimmer Fredette, you’d be wise…but wrong.  The answer is Tyler Haws, who shared M-West Freshman of the Year honors with Kawhi Leonard four years ago, then went on his mission and came back last year to only average 21.7 points per game while shooting 39% from three and 88% from the line.  He’s the key to the Cougars this year, and he gets it going against a good Weber team on Friday night.  I definitely want to find this one and tune in. 

Friday 10:00 – Fresno St. at UC-Irvine
The Anteaters of UC-Irvine are in serious contention for a Big West title.  An Opening Day win over Fresno would be a nice boost. 

Friday 10:00 – South Dakota St. at San Diego
The first game in the Post-Wolters Era for the Jackrabbits is a long trip to San Diego.  Can Jordan Dykstra and company carry the torch? 

Friday 1:30 am (Sat) – New Mexico St. at Western Michigan
New Mexico State might be more likely to win their conference than any other team in America, but that’s as much to do with the rest of the WAC than the Aggies.  They need non-conference wins to avoid the danger of being a 15-seed.  This would go a long way to get them to 13- or 14. 

Saturday 2:00 – Northern Iowa at Ohio
Just a great clash of solid mid-majors.  Granted, both teams are rebuilding, but this should be good nonetheless. 

Saturday 2:00 – Iona at Cleveland St.
See above… 

Saturday 6:00 – Norfolk St. at Texas-Southern
The best teams in the worst two conferences do battle. 

Saturday 6:30 – South Dakota St. vs Loyola Marymount (in San Diego, CA)
Another game for the Post-Wolters Jackrabbits.  This time they are up against one of the best unknown talents in the country.  If you catch this game, be on the lookout for Loyola’s Anthony Ireland.  he might be the best player this program has seen since Gathers and Kimble. 

Sunday 12:30 – Boston U at Northeastern
Northeastern came out of nowhere to win the CAA last year, but faltered in the conference tournament.  Can they repeat?  BU has moved to the Patriot League and immediately given the respect to be the coach’s pick to win the league.  I’m interested to see what happens here. 

Sunday 1:00 – Youngstown St. vs Eastern Kentucky (in Kennesaw, GA)
Eastern Kentucky was, quite possibly, the biggest surprise in the country last year when they challenged both Belmont and Murray St. for the OVC title.  Now, they have a lot of that team back and should give it another run under Coach Spoonhour.  YSU had an up and down season, and we’re still waiting for them to put it together and really compete in the Horizon. 

Sunday 2:00 – Haverford College (D3) at Stony Brook
I only added this one because I grew up a stone’s throw from Haverford College and I went to a school in the D3 Centennial Conference which boasts Haverford as a member.  They’re not a very good D3 team, so I don’t think they’d make much of a D1 team, either. 

Sunday 2:00 – Charleston-Southern at Delaware
Another chance for UD to show us something early against a decent opponent.  At least this one is in the Carpenter Center in Newark, DE. 

Sunday 5:00 – Elon at Marist
Another Marist game on this list?  It’s as if I care about the Red Foxes.  I don’t really, but I am intrigued to see Elon on the road against a decent opponent because Elon – for the first time ever – is the preseason favorite to win the SoCon. 

Sunday 5:30 – Harvard at Holy Cross
This Harvard team could be special – REALLY special.  This is a road game for the Crimson, but they should be heavy favorites. 

Sunday 6:00 – Oral Roberts at Tulsa
I like this ORU team and now that they are more accustomed to their new home in the Southland, they might really make a run at that league’s title.  Tulsa is a nice test, as the Golden Hurricane are a decent C-USA team.  A win here for ORU would be really nice. 

Posted in College Hoops | Leave a comment

2013-14 CBB Team Draft – Teams Remaining

ATLANTIC TEN (12/13)
Dayton
Duquesne
Fordham
George Mason
George Washington
La Salle
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Richmond
Saint Joseph’s
Saint Louis
St. Bonaventure
VCU  RDOC (2)
 
ACC (13/15)
Boston College
Clemson
Duke  DOOGAN (3)
Florida St.
Georgia Tech
Maryland
Miami FL
North Carolina
North Carolina St.
Notre Dame
Pittsburgh
Syracuse  BRY (13)
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
 
AMERICA EAST (9/9)
Albany
Binghamton
Hartford
Maine
New Hampshire
Stony Brook 
UMass Lowell
UMBC
Vermont
 
AMERICAN (9/10)
Cincinnati
Connecticut
Houston
Louisville  RDOC (10)
Memphis
Rutgers
SMU
South Florida
Temple
UCF
 
ATLANTIC SUN (10/10)
East Tennessee St.
Florida Gulf Coast
Jacksonville
Kennesaw St.
Lipscomb
Mercer
North Florida
Northern Kentucky
Stetson
USC Upstate
 
BIG TEN (11/12)
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Michigan
Michigan St.  GROSS (8)
Minnesota
Nebraska
Northwestern
Ohio St.
Penn St.
Purdue
Wisconsin
 
BIG XII (9/10)
Baylor
Iowa St.
Kansas  RDOC (15)
Kansas St.
Oklahoma
Oklahoma St.
TCU
Texas
Texas Tech
West Virginia
 
BIG EAST (9/10)
Butler
Creighton
DePaul
Georgetown
Marquette  RDOC (18)
Providence
Seton Hall
St. John’s
Villanova
Xavier
 
BIG SKY (11/11)
Eastern Washington
Idaho St.
Montana
Montana St.
North Dakota
Northern Arizona
Northern Colorado
Portland St.
Sacramento St.
Southern Utah
Weber St.
 
BIG SOUTH (11/12)
Campbell
Charleston Southern
Coastal Carolina
Gardner Webb
High Point  DOOGAN (22)
Liberty
Longwood
Presbyterian
Radford
UNC Asheville
VMI
Winthrop
 
BIG WEST (9/9)
Cal Poly
Cal St. Fullerton
Cal St. Northridge
Hawaii
Long Beach St.
UC Davis
UC Irvine
UC Riverside
UC Santa Barbara 
 
COLONIAL (9/9)
College of Charleston
Delaware
Drexel
Hofstra
James Madison
Northeastern
Towson
UNC Wilmington
William & Mary
 
CONF USA (13/16)
Charlotte
East Carolina
FIU
Florida Atlantic
Louisiana Tech  DOOGAN (19)
Marshall
Middle Tennessee
North Texas
Old Dominion
Rice
Southern Miss  GROSS (16)
Tulane
Tulsa
UAB
UTEP  GROSS (17)
UTSA
 
HORIZON (9/9)
Cleveland St.
Detroit
Green Bay
Illinois Chicago
Milwaukee
Oakland
Valparaiso
Wright St.
Youngstown St.
 
IVY (8/8)
Brown
Columbia
Cornell
Dartmouth
Harvard
Penn
Princeton
Yale
 
MAAC (10/11)
Canisius
Fairfield
Iona
Manhattan  RDOC (23)
Marist
Monmouth
Niagara
Quinnipiac
Rider
Saint Peter’s
Siena
 
MAC (12/12)
Akron
Ball St.
Bowling Green
Buffalo
Central Michigan
Eastern Michigan
Kent St.
Miami OH
Northern Illinois
Ohio
Toledo
Western Michigan
 
MEAC (13/13)
Bethune Cookman
Coppin St.
Delaware St.
Florida A&M
Hampton
Howard
Maryland Eastern Shore
Morgan St.
Norfolk St.
North Carolina A&T
North Carolina Central
Savannah St.
South Carolina St.
 
MISSOURI VALLEY (9/10)
Bradley
Drake
Evansville
Illinois St.
Indiana St.
Loyola Chicago
Missouri St.
Northern Iowa
Southern Illinois
Wichita St.  DOOGAN (11)
 
MOUNTAIN WEST (11/11)
Air Force
Boise St.
Colorado St.
Fresno St.
Nevada
New Mexico
San Diego St.
San Jose St.
UNLV
Utah St.
Wyoming
 
NEC (10/10)
Bryant
Central Connecticut
Fairleigh Dickinson
LIU Brooklyn
Mount St. Mary’s
Robert Morris
Sacred Heart
St. Francis NY
St. Francis PA
Wagner
 
OHIO VALLEY (11/12)
Austin Peay
Belmont   BRY (4)
Eastern Illinois
Eastern Kentucky
Jacksonville St.
Morehead St.
Murray St.
SIU Edwardsville
Southeast Missouri St.
Tennessee Martin
Tennessee St.
Tennessee Tech
 
PAC 12 (11/12)
Arizona  DOOGAN (6)
Arizona St.
California
Colorado
Oregon
Oregon St.
Stanford
UCLA
USC
Utah
Washington
Washington St.
 
PATRIOT (10/10)
American
Army
Boston University
Bucknell
Colgate
Holy Cross
Lafayette
Lehigh
Loyola MD
Navy
 
SEC (12/14)
Alabama
Arkansas
Auburn
Florida  DOOGAN (14)
Georgia
Kentucky  GROSS (1)
LSU
Mississippi
Mississippi St.
Missouri
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas A&M
Vanderbilt
 
SoCON (10/11)
Appalachian St.
Chattanooga
Davidson  BRY (5)
Elon
Furman
Georgia Southern
Samford
The Citadel
UNC Greensboro
Western Carolina
Wofford
 
SOUTHLAND (12/14)
Abilene Christian
Central Arkansas
Houston Baptist
Incarnate Word
Lamar
McNeese St.
New Orleans
Nicholls St.
Northwestern St.  BRY (21)
Oral Roberts  GROSS (9)
Sam Houston St.
Southeastern Louisiana
Stephen F. Austin
Texas A&M Corpus Christ
 
SUMMIT (8/8)
Denver
IPFW
IUPUI
Nebraska Omaha
North Dakota St.
South Dakota
South Dakota St.
Western Illinois
 
SUN BELT (10/10)
Arkansas Little Rock
Arkansas St.
Georgia St.
Louisiana Lafayette
Louisiana Monroe
South Alabama
Texas St.
Troy
UT Arlington
Western Kentucky
 
SWAC (9/10)
Alabama A&M
Alabama St.
Alcorn St.
Arkansas Pine Bluff
Grambling St.
Jackson St.
Mississippi Valley St.
Prairie View A&M
Southern
Texas Southern  BRY (12)
 
WAC (8/9)
Cal St. Bakersfield
Chicago St.
Grand Canyon
Idaho
New Mexico St.  BRY (20)
Seattle
Texas Pan American
UMKC
Utah Valley
 
WCC (9/10)
BYU
Gonzaga  RDOC (7)
Loyola Marymount
Pacific
Pepperdine
Portland
Saint Mary’s
San Diego
San Francisco
Santa Clara
 
PASS (2/2)
Pass 1
Pass 2
Posted in MLB Suicide Game | Leave a comment

Where Do We Go From Here

For many of my fellow Orioles fans last season was a dream, fifteen years of watching Rodrigo Lopez, Matt Riley, Eric DuBose, Jerry Hairston Jr, and Larry Bigbie (just to name a few of the classics) and the Orioles finally made it!  Not only did they make it but they won….a one game playoff against the Rangers but for most of us it felt like a World Series win.  Of course most of us know the end of that story…god damn Yankees.  Anyway, for the first time it brought hope and inspiration to Orioles fans that this season was going to be even better.  Unfortunately, for most of our newer fans and for the guys who knew that we had a lot of questions to answer from the previous season, like the strength of starting pitching and the magic of one run wins, this season just wasn’t quite enough.  Either way it was a great season but it leaves the question of, “where do we go from here?”

What will follow from here will probably have most Orioles fans shaking their head at their computer or saying things like, “who is this asshole?” but I would like to think some of these ideas are valid….maybe.

As I sit here and watch what looks like the Red Sox three game sweep of the Rays I sit and think about what the Orioles have to do this offseason to improve and make a run at a championship.  Obviously the first thing that comes to my mind, and probably most others, is starting pitching.  Look at the teams in the playoffs this year, the Rays (Price, Moore, Cobb), the Sox (Lester, Buchholz), the As (Parker, Gray, Colon) side note: if you didn’t watch Game 2 of the As/Tigers shame on you because Verlander and Gray both pitched a classic, do yourself a favor next time that kid Gray pitches tune in, he is filthy.  Anyways, you follow up these teams with the Tigers (Verlander, Scherzer, Fister, Sanchez) clearly starting pitching gets you to where you need to go.

Looking at the Orioles starting pitching what do they really have?  In my opinion, Tillman is a one.  As he grows, he is only going to get better.  He should have been a 20 game winner this season and he pitched fantastic.  He is a bulldog on the mound and he constantly fights.  When you look at an ace, to me two things come to mind; innings pitched and ERA.  Well the good news here is that Tillman went over 200 innings, 24th in the majors, and had an ERA of 3.71, 50th in the majors…not too bad for a 25 year old kid.  I don’t see any reason why this guy slows down from here on out, and if he is going to improve on those numbers, especially the ERA, he is going to be pretty damn good, so to me I think you have your ace.  Where we lack, a number two.  The Orioles don’t currently have a number two starter, now I think Gausman is going to get there eventually, but I think he needs a little more time.  Moving on I think you have Chen and Norris who will fight to be the #3 guy, the loser will be our #4 and for me I like Gausman to be the #5 and take a season to learn.  So to recap, next seasons rotation for manager Grossnickle (what an awful ring that has) goes:

1. Chris Tillman

2. TBD

3. Bud Norris

4. Wei-Yin Chen

5. Kevin Gausman

So who goes in the two hole?  Do we sign somebody?  Looking at some of the names out there I am not sure who we would even target.  The problem with most of the free agent starting pitching market is that there is a ton of old blood out there.  So to give sort of a quick rundown of all the guys you have heard of, let’s say 34 years is a pretty healthy aged starting pitcher?  Ok, take a look:

Johan Santana (34), Roy Halladay (37), Barry Zito (36), AJ Burnett (37), Bronson Arroyo (37), Hiroki Kuroda (39), Chris Carpenter (39), Tim Hudson (38), Ryan Vogelsong (36), Roy Oswalt (35)

Do any of these names entice anyone?  Not me, most of these guys have even had trouble staying healthy, that being said there is some serious talent left out there, but I am not sure we can afford them.

1. Tim Lincecum (30) 2013 salary: $22,250,000

Simply put, no thanks.  This guy made a name for himself in 2008 as the pipsqueak with the quirky delivery that his dad taught him that just baffled hitters and for four seasons it was awesome.  The problem is, the last two seasons have been ugly and riddled with injury.  The last two seasons 2012: 186.0 innings, 5.18 ERA.  2013: 197.2 innings, 4.37 ERA, the two highest ERAs of his career.  So to recap the reward for the Giants after giving the Freak a 2 year 45 million dollar contract was that, not the kind of guy I want the Orioles investing serious dough in, let him go disappoint the Yankees.

2. Jon Lester (30) 2013 salary: $11,625,000

We certainly have seen plenty of this guy, as most know an Orioles killer.  This powerful lefty has been a pain in our ass for years, and also a pain in the Red Sox.  Now I am not going to throw a bunch of the numbers out to you about how good or not so good he has been the past few years, but from what I have seen he hasn’t been the same.  In the past two or three seasons he has a guy who has been unreliable and from a consistency standpoint he has frustrated the hell out of the Sox.  Three seasons ago this guy looked like he was going to be the American League Clayton Kershaw, nobody could hit the kid and he was a damn bulldog on the mound just constantly attacking.  Over the past couple of seasons, and definitely this season he hasn’t even been the best in the Red Sox rotation.  For me personally, the juice of somewhere around $11 mil a year just isn’t worth it.  On a side note, Lester is currently under a team option so if the Sox do let him walk…shouldn’t that be a hint at something anyway.

3. Ricky Nolasco (31) 2013 salary: $11,500,000

This is a guy I really wanted the Orioles to make a move for during the trading deadline, instead we went after Feldman who ended up being decent but I personally thought Nolasco was a better move.  Well now he is a free agent and he has pitched great since being with the Dodgers…2.07 ERA good, which means old Ricky is going to get paid.  Unfortunately for the Orioles this season and in future seasons we didn’t trade for Ricky.  The Dodgers have the type of money to pony up to what Nolasco will be asking for, personally I don’t think he moves, but if he does I hope the Orioles are talking.

4. James Shields (32) 2013 salary: $11,000,000

This will be short and sweet.  I would love to see Shields in Orioles black and orange.  The problem is the Royals were actually in the mix this year and they don’t have to worry about re-signing a bunch of guys.  Currently, Shields holds a $12 mil club option and I can’t see any way that they don’t pick that up, but if they don’t he would be on the tops of my list as the semi-affordable type of pitcher the Orioles should target.

5.  Matt Garza (30) 2013 salary: $10,250,000

Initially this was a guy I didn’t have much interest in but after re-evaluating the numbers, this guy is not bad at all.  The biggest question mark with him, is the healthy can he get back to the guys the Rays had and the Cubs paid big bucks for, a guy who eclipsed 200 innings two of his three seasons with Tampa and never had an ERA over 4.00.  I am not sure at this point that this guy is worth $10 mil a season but if you could work him down to $7-$8 a season, I think he would be a great addition and a solid number two to compliment Chris Tillman.

These are the top guys other than that, there is really not much else out there unless we are considering bringing guys like Feldy back.  Can we afford any of these guys? Sure.  Do we think we are going to make a move at one of these guys?  In my heart of hearts I would say it is looking like Garza or bust.  So then what do you do if you don’t get Garza.  My opinion, time to trade Matt Wieters. (I can already hear most of the swearing as you all read that sentence)

Listen, I love Wieters.  I think what he does for that rotation, how he controls the game defensively is second to none.  However, we cannot just pay this guy whatever he is asking.  Now, if Wieters was hitting .285 and drawing a boatload of walks with the power numbers he currently holds I would say he is worth every bit of $150 million, but the bottom line is he’s not.  It’s great that he’s the best defensive catcher in the game but does that warrant a contract like Mauer, Posey or Molina?  No, it doesn’t.  Those guys are monsters in both aspects of the game and if Wieters is the number one defensive catcher in the game, Molina is 1a, he’s damn good watch him in the playoffs.  Molina got a 5 yr $75 million dollar deal last season, $15 a year, is Wieters worth that much?  Molina has hit over .300 his past three seasons, been 32nd, 18th and 56th in the majors in OBP the past three seasons and has been right there defensively with Wieters.  On the other hand Wieters hasn’t hit over .265, never hit 25 HRs in a season and his OBP numbers in the past three years…133rd, 84th and 94th.  I get Wieters is our golden boy, I totally understand he is the guy that we want in black and orange until he hangs up the mask but that does not mean you pay what he doesn’t deserve.  If Molina is getting $15 mil a year, from those numbers alone I can’t see how you pay Wieters more than $11 mil a year.  If you offered him a 7 year, $77 mil type of deal I think that was fair, hell even go 7 years $80 mil and I am on board, but this talk of $120 million is crazy.  Not to mention, why wait until we have to make a move and then not get anything for him.  If we wait until Wieters is a free agent, here is the problem, if we want to keep him that badly at that point we will have to pay him whatever he wants, and didn’t we just see that sort of situation with another guy in town who ended up with $120 mil. (I am a Flacco guy by the way).

By the way for those of you saying just give Wieters whatever you want, go ahead, because then you will watch Chris Davis walk out the door.  Both of these guys are Scott Boras guys and if Davis has any type of season he had this year, he will be another guy getting paid, either way we aren’t keeping both of them.

Now that we have traded Wieters what are we going to get in return.  To me, that is the $120 mil dollar question.  I think Wieters stock is at an all-time high now that the Orioles are relevant and he is one of the faces of that team.  Who do we want?  I would think if we are shipping Wieters somewhere we would want some sort of big time arm.  If I am Dan Duquette and I really want to spend the money and I am looking to pay a guy 12-15 million a year, I am calling a team that can afford Wieters that would want to add another bat to a lineup that could take control of a somewhat shaky rotation and a bit of a suspect bullpen.  That’s right I am calling the LA Angels and seeing how interested they are in shipping off the 31 year old Jered Weaver.  This guy has a career 3.24 ERA he just got a contract and now that he has hit 31 and Wieters is still only 27 years old, I think it may be a spot that the Angels would be willing to talk a little.  Now obviously to land a guy like Weaver I think we would have to attach a piece (maybe Matusz?) but I think they might talk.  Now obviously, I am as big a homer as anyone so maybe I am valuing Wieters and Matusz too high, but maybe I am not due to Weaver being 31.  I still think that gives Weaver a good six or seven years and let’s face it if he was the ace and won us two World Series in seven seasons it be well worth shipping off Wieters.

There it is, the ramblings of a mad man.  I am sure I will put this article out there and the Orioles will go in a completely different direction, but hey, it is fun to put on my GM hat every once in a while…regardless of how ugly and stupid looking it is.  Coming soon my opinions on what kind of additions we need to make lineup wise, expect most suggestions as shitty as this one.

Gross

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BSB’s 2012 NFL Preview

UPDATE 8-27-13…Final Results Below in RED

(Originally posted 9-4-12)
For those of you unfamiliar with the preview, instead of the typical, been-done-again-and-again season previews, we like to make a game out of our previews, along with being informative.  What we do is kind of a draft process, where we try and decide whether we think a team will get better or worse from last year’s record.  Then, at the end of the year, we see who did a better job of predicting.  It’s interesting to see just how different the seasons of some teams turn out, in retrospect.  Check out our past previews to see what I’m talking about.  Doogan took our first one in 2008, 17-15, but Bry responded with a come-from-behind 17-15 win in the 2009 version.  In 2010, Doogan won by the familiar 17-15 score.  And, then last year, Doogan absolutely dominated, 19-13, to become the first back-to-back winner of the NFL preview.  Bry is trying to get back some dignity from last year’s brutal defeat.

So, on to this year’s NFL Preview, BSB-style.  Doogan picked first last year, so Bry is on the clock…

1). BRY – Green Bay Packers – UNDER 15 wins: This is not because I think the Packers got any worse.  And, it is not because I do not think they are the best team in the NFC – I think they absolutely are.  I also think that their defense will be a lot better this year than last, and their offense should be just as explosive, with the game’s best player leading the way.  So, have I lost my mind picking the Pack and the UNDER with my #1 pick?  Maybe.  But, I just believe that, no matter how good you are, everything has to go right to win 15+ games in the NFL.  I still think they will probably win 13, maybe 14.  But, I will wager against them winning 15 again…this from a guy who got his first pick wrong last year…

FINAL: 11-5…Bry 1-0
Pretty comfortable point for Bry here with the #1 pick, as the Pack was good, but not 15-1 good.  Bry even oversold them at 13 or 14 wins.

2) DOOGAN – San Francisco 49ers – UNDER 13 wins: I’ve said before, my favorite teams to pick against in this game are the ones that made a big leap the previous year.  The Niners jumped from 6 to 13 wins last year, and rarely is a franchise’s ascendance that easy.  Maybe Jim Harbaugh is the next Lombardi or Belichick or something, but meeting the now high expectations will be a challenge.  The defense is top-notch, but can Alex Smith repeat last season’s success? Doubt it.  Will Randy Moss contribute or just be an poor performing distraction?  I say the latter.  With road games at the Packers, Jets, Saints, and Pats on the slate, the easy divisional competition is off-set.  Niners repeat as division champs, with 10 wins.

FINAL: 11-4-1…Doogan 1-1
The NFC Champion 49ers actually score a point for Doogan on the UNDER, as they “only” picked up 11 wins.  Doogan’s division champs and 10 win prediction was very close.

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MLB September 30 for 30: Teams Remaining

NOTE:  This is unofficial (though, probably correct) – the official count is kept by the Commish

(through September 26)

Aaron

MIA
CIN
TOR

McGrath

ARI
LAD
MIN

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The 76ers and the 2013 NBA Draft

For the first time in recent memory, the Sixers were among the biggest stories in the NBA this week, thanks to their bold trade of Jrue Holiday, a young All-Star and the clear best player on the team, for the draft rights of Nerlens Noel and a 1st-Round pick in 2014.

Bold trades and headlines are nice, but not necessarily a good thing for the future of the franchise.  Did the Sixers help themselves on Thursday night?

Sam Hinkie started his rebuild on Thursday

The NBA is unlike the NFL or MLB because, in any given year, there are far less teams that a have a legit chance of winning a championship than in the other leagues.  We’ve seen 6-seeds make runs to Super Bowl wins and an 83-win Cardinals team win a World Series.  But in the NBA, it’s considered a shocking upset when a team like the 2011 Mavs wins a title, even though they tied for the 4th-best record in the NBA that year, winning just under 70% of their games in the regular season.

My point is that, while there’s plenty of logic in trying to keep your team “afloat” and stay reasonably competitive in the other leagues (much like a current baseball team in the City of Brotherly Love), there’s not much point in being “decent” in the NBA.  You have no chance of achieving the ultimate goal (a title) and not much chance of getting over the hump because you can’t get top draft picks or find the cap room to sign top free agents if you already have middling players taking up payroll.

New Sixers GM Sam Hinkie could’ve come in, looked at a Jrue Holiday and said, “Here’s a really good young player that will be a piece of the puzzle down the road.  Now, I can make a run at re-signing Andrew Bynum and we have two major pieces to becoming a contender.”

I’m glad he didn’t make that choice.  There were too many question marks with that plan, and if you got the wrong answers, there would be no way out.  We know all too well how much a question there is surrounding Bynum, on multiple levels.  And even if he’s able to play, with him and Holiday, the Sixers would probably be a 44-win team next year, finish 6th in the conference and be very lucky to sneak into the 2nd Round of the playoffs.

In the 12 seasons since the run to the Finals in 2001, the Sixers have a .471 win percentage.  Since 2003, their best regular season finish was 6th in the conference.  They’ve been the epitome of a team “stuck in the middle,” and heading into the next few years with Holiday and Bynum would’ve kept them there.

So, now where are they?

They’ll be bad next season.  Probably REALLY bad.  But that will net them, if all goes well with the Pelicans, two top 10 picks in a “loaded” draft.

And what of their two top picks in this year’s draft?  There’s reason to worry about Noel, but let’s remember that he was, arguably, the top-rated player in his class out of high school and a guy that everyone had pegged as the #1 overall pick in this draft for basically the entire regular season and then up to the final week before the draft.

He’s an intriguing talent.  He’ll probably never average more than 12-13 points a game but, ideally, he’ll become a Joakim Noah-type player.  He’ll need to add a lot of muscle, but he has the potential to be a game-changer defensively and a really strong presence on the glass.

Michael Carter-Williams will also have a steep learning curve, with basically only one year of college ball under his belt, as well.  Like Noel, he’ll probably never score a ton, but he has great size, length, and quickness, and he was an assist machine at Syracuse last year.

Neither one is a sure thing, but they both have the potential to be key pieces down the road.  I don’t know if Hinkie has Evan Turner in his long range plans or not, but if you’re going to have Noel, Carter-Williams, and Turner in your starting line-up, the other two guys better be able to score, and hopefully both shoot it.  The big piece, the superstar, is still missing, of course.

It should make the college basketball season that much more intriguing next year, because the Sixers will almost certainly be picking at the top of the draft, maybe twice, so Sixers fans will be scouting the top talents all season long.

Other thoughts on the draft:

  • In all the college hoops I watched last year, there were two players that just looked like NBA players.  Not like they had the potential to get there, but guys that, because of their body and skill-set, looked like current NBA players jumping into a college game.  Those two were Anthony Bennett and Otto Porter.  So, no surprise to see them go 1st and 3rd in the draft.
  • I’m very often wrong about projecting college players to the NBA, but I cannot figure out how San Diego St.’s Jamaal Franklin fell all the way to the 41st pick.  I get that he’s a shooting guard that can’t shoot but, last I checked, so was Dwyane Wade, and he just won his third ring.  Franklin has prototypical size and off-the-charts athleticism.  He’s an incredible defensive player and averaged 9.5 rebounds from his guard spot last year!  I’m not saying he’s gonna be Wade or anything, but I can’t understand why an Archie Goodwin goes in the first round and Franklin doesn’t even get close.  I mean, he can do this.
  • Along the same lines, it’s hard to believe that C.J. Leslie wasn’t drafted at all.  Again, the concerns are pretty obvious (mainly that he seemed to disappear from games way too often), but he was often mentioned as a lottery pick at one time.  There just aren’t many 6-9 guys that can move and jump like him.
  • One more that slipped:  Ohio St.’s Deshaun Thomas.  I guess the fact that the Spurs took him at 58 tells you right away: he should’ve gone higher.  He’s a tweener and I really doubt he’ll ever be a starter, but he can flat-out score and he’ll come off the bench for teams and throw up 10 points in 4 minutes.
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