Timing is Everything: NFL Preview – Week Two

Week One is in the books, and it was an interesting week that gave us some real surprises.  We will see what Week Two has in store.

Sunday, September 18:
1:00 – Oakland (0-2) at BUFFALO (1-1)
I don’t think Buffalo is better than the Raiders.  But, then again, I don’t think they’re that much worse either.  And, in Buffalo at 1:00, I like the Bills here, without too much hesitation.

1:00 – Kansas City (1-1) at DETROIT (1-1)
I really struggled with this one, actually.  I do like the Chiefs some this year, and I’m not drinking the Lions Kool-Aid.  But, this early in the season, the Lions will probably be fully healthy, and despite a Week One loss to Tampa, the fans of this team are so excited for this team, that I think they can propel their team to a win in the home opener.  This one is tough, though

1:00 – BALTIMORE (1-1) at Tennessee (1-1)
The Ravens are smarting from a home loss to open the season against the Steelers, while the Titans picked up a bit of a hollow win at Jacksonville.  I like the Ravens easily here, even on the road.

1:00 – Cleveland (1-1) at INDIANAPOLIS (1-1)
This game is a lot trickier to pick now that we know that Manning is probably out, but I think that after the initial shock of losing him (and maybe a BIG loss to Houston), the Colts have enough talent (and Collins is a decent enough QB) to rally the troops to beat the Browns at home.  Though, this has become very interesting in Cleveland’s season all of a sudden…

1:00 – Chicago (1-1) at NEW ORLEANS (1-1)
As is the theme of the day, two more teams evening their records after two weeks.  This one is easy.  The Saints have 10 days to prepare for a Bears team that cannot possibly keep up with Brees & Co. on the carpet.

1:00 – Jacksonville (0-2) at N.Y. JETS (2-0)
The quarterback-less Jags on the road against a defense that eats alive even good QBs?  Move along, nothing to discuss here.

1:00 – Seattle (0-2) at PITTSBURGH (2-0)
The quarterback-less Seahawks on the road against a defense that eats alive even good QBs?  Move along, nothing to discuss here.

1:00 – Arizona (1-1) at WASHINGTON (2-0)
A sportsbook in Vegas put out lines on every NFL game every week back in August.  For some reason, they installed the Redskins as a 7-point favorite in this game.  While, I would rush to the window to put money on the Cardinals +7, I still kind of agree that the ‘Skins win this game.  I, honestly, think that this defense is easily overlooked, and…wait for it…I think Rex Grossman takes too much flak.  There, I said it.

1:00 – GREEN BAY (2-0) at Carolina (0-2)
Ten days for the Pack to prepare for the Fighting Cam Newtons?  Easy road win for the defending champs.

1:00 – Tampa Bay (1-1) at MINNESOTA (1-1)
I think the Bucs, who, like most young teams, play much better at home than on the road, might be smelling themselves a little bit after beating an overhyped Lions team in Week One.  And, the Vikings, who are probably coming off a shellacking in San Diego, are probably easy to overlook, particularly if the Bucs look ahead to hosting the Falcons next week.  I cannot wait to take the money line on the Vikes as a home dog in this game.  I think they win this game outright.

4:15 – DALLAS (1-1) at San Francisco (1-1)
The Cowboys are just a better team than the Niners, and I think they finally show it here on a cool September afternoon by the Bay.

4:15 – HOUSTON (2-0) at Miami (0-2)
This is going to sound funny as I keep giving them losses, but I actually think this Dolphins team is decent.  But, on a short week, against a pumped-up Houston team, I think they probably drop this game.  I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Texans spit this one up like they have a tendency to do, but I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt that they honestly haven’t ever earned.

4:15 – Cincinnati (0-2) at DENVER (2-0)
Home against the Bengals is a nice elixir for a short work week, and I think that the Broncos should go to 2-0 here, despite that Vegas sportsbook installing them as a 1-point home dog here in this one.  Maybe they forgot that Carson Palmer retired.

4:15 – San Diego (1-1) at NEW ENGLAND (2-0)
The Pats should watch out here, as they have a brutal matchup on a short week after a road game on Monday night, but they are such a professional team with such a great coach, that I have full confidence that they’ll be prepared.  Then again, I’m sure that they would love to have this game at 1:00 in the middle of December instead of 4:15 on a balmy Massachusetts afternoon.

8:20 – Philadelphia (0-2) at ATLANTA (1-1)
If Week One goes the way I see it, one of the NFC favorites will be 0-2.  And, unfortunately, I think it’s our Birds.  I know it’s Michael Vick’s homecoming, but I kind of think that that might actually favor the Falcons in this one, with the emotion that the fans must feel towards him (not that anyone cares about pro sports in Atlanta), and with the excitement they probably feel about their own team right now.  Throw in the fact that the Birds have the hated Giants next week, and I actually see them starting 0-2, I’m sorry to say.

Monday, September 19:
8:30 – St. Louis (1-1) at N.Y. GIANTS (1-1)
The G-Men, coming off a head-scratching loss to the ‘Skins, return home for their home opener on a Monday night against a St. Louis team that is much better at home than on the road.  As down as I am on this Giants team this year, I think they take care of business against the Rams in prime time.

STANDINGS AFTER WEEK 2:
NFC EAST
2-0 Washington
1-1 Dallas
1-1 N.Y. Giants
0-2 Philadelphia

I’m not sure that anyone would have said all year that the NFC East would have Washington at the top and the Eagles at the bottom, but just looking at the schedule, I’d say that it’s certainly possible after two weeks.

NFC NORTH
2-0 Green Bay
1-1 Chicago
1-1 Detroit
1-1 Minnesota

The Pack starts 2-0, while the rest of the division splits their first two games.  Nice wins for Minnesota and Detroit in Week Two, give this division a pretty solid start here to 2011.

NFC SOUTH
1-1 Atlanta
1-1 New Orleans
1-1 Tampa Bay
0-2 Carolina

The Panthers fall back to what will be a very comfortable 4th-place, while the other 3 teams all sit at 1-1.  This is going to be a very good division, but it remains to be seen if there are enough wins out there for a wild card (or possibly two?).

NFC WEST
1-1 Arizona
1-1 San Francisco
1-1 St. Louis
0-2 Seattle

Okay, that’s more like it.  After a 3-1 Week One, the NFC Worst goes 0-4 in Week 2.

AFC EAST
2-0 New England
2-0 N.Y. Jets
1-1 Buffalo
0-2 Miami

Get used to this picture – Jets and Pats on top, the other two chasing.  Though Buffalo picked up a nice win to improve to 1-1.  Also get used to this – the schedule-makers did Miami NO favors.

AFC NORTH
2-0 Pittsburgh
1-1 Baltimore
1-1 Cleveland
0-2 Cincinnati

The Steelers and Ravens take care of business.  It should be noted here that I picked Indy to beat Cleveland.  While I’m sticking by the pick, it’s not out of the question for the Browns to beat a Peyton-less Indy team and go to 2-0…just sayin’.

AFC SOUTH
2-0 Houston
1-1 Indianapolis
1-1 Tennessee
0-2 Jacksonville

Houston stays on top here – probably for good.  The Colts get a Peyton-less win over the Browns.  The Jags are miserable.

AFC WEST
2-0 Denver
1-1 Kansas City
1-1 San Diego
0-2 Oakland

Tough losses for KC, SD, and Oak, coupled with a nice win for the Broncos, leaves the Mile High team in first place by themselves out west.

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Timing is Everything: NFL Preview – Week One

Okay, here we are, getting underway with another much-awaited NFL season.  More great storylines pervade NFL nation this year, as we had a ridiculous flurry of an offseason and a seemingly rushed preseason.  Now, we start the regular season with a bang…

(Check out this link for a quick explanation of this series of posts.)

In CAPS is my pick to win the game, with a short explanatory paragraph to follow.  The records include this week’s game

Thursday, September 8:
8:30 – New Orleans (0-1) at GREEN BAY (1-0)
Like I have said for the past two years, I do like this now-not-so-new trend of giving the defending champs the night to themselves to open the season the following year at home.  And, even more, I LOVE the trend of almost always picking a fantastic opponent for them.  This year is no different.  As you will see in the coming posts, I love both of these teams this year, and really see this game going either way.  However, at home, raising a banner, it’s hard to pick against the defending champs.

Sunday, September 11:
1:00 – Atlanta (0-1) at CHICAGO (1-0)
Honestly, this first one on Sunday – right off the bat – may have been the hardest game for me all week.  I like the Falcons, but I don’t like them that much on the road.  I’m not huge on the Bears, but I think they might have a “circle the wagons” kind of mentality coming off how they ended 2010.  I also think that the Falcons may just be looking ahead to Michael Vick’s return to the Georgia Dome a week from now.  In the toughest pick of the week, give me the Bears at home.

1:00 – Cincinnati (0-1) at CLEVELAND (1-0)
I think the Bengals stink.  I am kind of a believer in Colt McCoy.  Give me the Browns here at home, with relative ease.

1:00 – Buffalo (0-1) at KANSAS CITY (1-0)
I think the Chiefs are due for a bit of a regression, and I also think that Buffalo will be better than they were at the beginning of last year.  However, the Chiefs are great at home, and there is absolutely no reason to think they won’t handle Buffalo here on opening day.

1:00 – Philadelphia (0-1) at ST. LOUIS (1-0)
Maybe I’m overcompensating for my homerism here.  Maybe I’m trying the reverse-jinx.  Maybe I believe too much in the Rams.  But, St. Louis was 5-3 at home last year, and they are a better team now than they were then.  And, with all the new faces, are the Birds ready to come together this soon?  Don’t you think Steve Spagnuolo will have a few blitzes dialed up for an O-line that looks off-kilter?  Doesn’t a fresh Steven Jackson terrify even the most ardent Eagles D supporters?  If this game was schedule for Week 13, I think the Eagles win easily.  But, game one with all the new faces and an inexperienced O-line against an elite defensive mind, I think the Rams might shock us all here.  And, this is exactly why – in the NFL far above any other sport – looking at WHEN you play the games, not just against whom, is vital in analyzing a team’s prognosis for an upcoming season.

1:00 – Detroit (0-1) at TAMPA BAY (1-0)
If the Eagles are “Team Hype,” then what the hell are the Detroit Lions?  If you didn’t know any better, you’d think that this team signed 3-4 elite free agents to add to an already successful team in a proven organization.  But, no, the Lions (who only won 6 games last year and have one of the worst histories for a franchise in North American sports) added the 13th overall draft pick to a position at which they were already very strong and a 2nd-round pick at running back one year after adding a 2nd-round pick at running back.  Oh, and by the way, both of those “additions” are injured, including LeShoure, who is out for the season.  Yes, they are young and improving, but let’s slow down a bit.  Give me the young, up-and-coming team that WON (not lost) 10 games last year, who also happens to be at home.

1:00 – TENNESSEE (1-0) at Jacksonville (0-1)
I feel like every year I rip the Jags and then they go out and win 5 more games than I thought they would.  Well, not this year, folks.  I’m going to still rip them, but they’re not going 8-8.  I’m not big on the Titans and originally had Jax winning this game, but first Chris Johnson signed and then the Jags cut their starting quarterback for one of the McNowns or McCowns or McClowns (none of them are good enough to decipher between them), I quickly changed my tune.  Gimme the Titans on the road.

1:00 – PITTSBURGH (1-0) at Baltimore (0-1)
Honestly, if you told me that we were going to eliminate 30 NFL teams, keep two and just have them play against each other every week until the end of time, I wouldn’t even think twice.  I’d line up the Steelers and Ravens to play each other forever.  With absolutely no rooting interest in either team, I can honestly say that these games are what football is all about.  I’m not happy that this game is so early in the season with a full slate of football, including Nnamdi’s Eagles debut, but still, this is gonna be great.  However, much to the dismay of all my fellow Baltimoreans (most of whom will be wearing all purple everything all week, but probably wouldn’t know who Heloti Ngata was if he walked in the room), I like the Steelers in this one.  The Ravens let go of a lot of veterans in a year where experienced veterans are going to be very important in the early going.  The Steelers, on the other hand, have everyone back from a 12-4 team that was a play or two from winning yet another title.  So, despite my man-love for Ray Lewis, I like the Steelers to grab a HUGE road win in Week One.

1:00 – Indianapolis (0-1) at HOUSTON (1-0)
Even with a healthy Peyton Manning, I like the Texans to exorcise some demons here and beat the Colts.  Now, with Kerry Collins, this one’s pretty easy.

4:15 – N.Y. Giants (0-1) at WASHINGTON (1-0)
With the exception of the Bears-Falcons, I went back and forth on this game more than any other game on the slate, and I am still VERY unconvinced either way.  In the end, I actually decided that the Redskins offense would be able to put up enough points against a really banged up Giants D to allow their defense to win the game.  They have a gambling, turnover-dependent defense, which plays perfectly against a guy (Eli) who turned the ball over THIRTY times last year.  The Giants offseason just seems like one of those offseasons where too much happened to right the ship immediately.  And, I think the ‘Skins come out of the offseason with more confidence than many thought they would – myself included.

4:15 – Minnesota (0-1) at SAN DIEGO (1-0)
The Super-Chargers are going to be super this year.  I put money on them at 12:1 to win the Super Bowl, and I love the bet.  Minnesota is going to be better than people think, and the Chargers (as we all know ALL too well) aren’t exactly the fastest of starters.  But, there is no reason to think SD doesn’t win this game and win it easily.

4:15 – Seattle (0-1) at SAN FRANCISCO (1-0)
This one was actually pretty tough for me here.  I don’t like what the Niners did in the offseason (how can you?), but…and I NEVER thought I’d say this…I think they made a better quarterback decision than their Week One opponents did this offseason.  Don’t get me wrong, as the manager of the Jack-O’s (a team of all Jacksons in our BSB fantasy football league, All in the Family), I am strongly rooting for Tavaris Jackson to perform masterfully, but I just don’t see how it’s possible.

4:15 – Carolina (0-1) at ARIZONA (1-0)
The Kevin Kolb Era is underway.  I honestly think he’ll be decent.  I don’t think he’ll be worth the money.  I don’t see any Pro Bowls in his future, but I think he’ll be “decent.”  The Arizona defense, on the other hand, not so much.  But, I don’t think they’ll be bad enough to lose to a Cam Newton-led Panthers team at home.

8:20 – Dallas (0-1) at N.Y. JETS (1-0)
This is a FANTASTIC game to open the season on Sunday Night Football.  (Quick tangent: Am I the only one who despises Chris Collinsworth?  I’ll save my justification for another time, but I really can’t stand him, like, AT ALL.)  While I do have question marks about their defense, I think the Cowboys could be really good this year.  But, I don’t think they have much of a shot in this one for several reasons.  One, the Jets are just a better team.  Two, Rex & Co. love the spotlight of prime time games.  Three, New York City, prime time, on the 10th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks.  Emotion plays more of a role in the sport of football than any other sport.  I think emotion carries the day here and give the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets a big Week One win.

Monday, September 12:
7:00 – NEW ENGLAND (1-0) at Miami (0-1)
I like the whole Monday Night double-header on Week One (I’ve actually been saying FOR YEARS that I don’t understand why the most popular TV sport in the country lets 85% of their games conflict with one another…it’s stupid).  But, what I don’t like is the fact that the games always seem to kind of stink.  I don’t mind this game because it’s in Miami, so I think the ‘Phins defense can at least make it a game, but it probably won’t be interesting for all that long, unless Chad Henne becomes who I thought he would be last year and not who he actually was last year.  Give me the Pats on the road, rather easily.

10:15 – Oakland (0-1) at DENVER (1-0)
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not a fan of this Broncos team.  And, the minute the hand the reigns over to Tim Tebow, I will pick them to lose every game for the rest of time.  But, for now, they still have Kyle Orton.  They also have added Willis McGahee.  And…as our loyal readers know…I am a blind believer in all things John Fox.  Throw in the fact that I don’t think the Raiders are all that much better, and I’ll take the Broncos at home in Week One.

STANDINGS AFTER WEEK ONE
After each week, we will update the standings for each division, maybe do a little synopsis of the division races, and then, starting about 6 games in, we’ll give the tenative playoff positioning.  But, for now, it’s just about the standings.  Also, we won’t really worry about tiebreaker scenarios until maybe Week 13 or something like that.

NFC EAST
1-0 Washington
0-1 Dallas
0-1 N.Y. Giants
0-1 Philadelphia

Haha, if you told me that the Redskins would be a full game clear of the rest of the division at any point in the next 5 years I would probably say that you were crazy.  But, this might certainly be the situation when we wake up Monday morning.  Don’t worry, it won’t stay this way.

NFC NORTH
1-0 Chicago
1-0 Green Bay
0-1 Detroit
0-1 Minnesota

This year – same as last year.  Packers and Bears up top, Lions and Vikes down below…at least in the early going.

NFC SOUTH
1-0 Tampa Bay
0-1 Atlanta
0-1 New Orleans
0-1 Carolina

Both the Saints and Falcons start 0-1 with tough road losses, while the Bucs pick up a decent home win against everyone’s early-season darling, Detroit.  It should be interesting to see whether this is a 2-team race or a 3-team race.

NFC WEST
1-0 Arizona
1-0 San Francisco
1-0 St. Louis
0-1 Seattle

No way is this division 3-1?!?  I must have messed something up here…hold on, let me check something.

AFC EAST
1-0 New England
1-0 N.Y. Jets
0-1 Buffalo
0-1 Miami

Jets and Pats should battle for this division all year.  The two “also-rans” start off with losses.

AFC NORTH
1-0 Cleveland
1-0 Pittsburgh
0-1 Baltimore
0-1 Cincinnati

An absolutely GIGANTIC road win for the Steelers over the Ravens could keep them on top of this division for a while.  The Browns opened with a divisional win, as well, but it’s not quite as impressive when it’s home against Cincy.

AFC SOUTH
1-0 Houston
1-0 Tennessee
0-1 Indianapolis
0-1 Jacksonville

Is this the year?  Can the Texans finally get over the hump and into the playoffs?  Well, I just have to say that if it’s not this year, then it’s never going to happen because this division is not very good.

AFC WEST
1-0 Denver
1-0 Kansas City
1-0 San Diego
0-1 Oakland

Just like the NFC West, the AFC West also has a surprising 3-win opening week.  I’m not sure how good this division will be all year, but it’s off to a nice start.

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Timing is Everything: BSB’s Game-by-Game NFL Preview

So, aside from the BSB-style NFL preview, we also like to do something in preparation for the NFL season, where we go through every week of the NFL season (before the season starts) and try to pick a winner, with strong consideration given to the teams involved (obviously), the place, the weather, the possible motivations, and a bunch of other scheduling circumstances (particularly, teams coming off of a bye or a short week, traveling long distances, West Coast teams at 1:00, looking ahead to big games the following week or let-downs from big games the prior week, etc.).  This is important because we all know that, in a 16-game schedule with professional athletes, a bounce here or there can be the difference between making the playoff crapshoot with a shot at a Super Bowl and having to sit through an offseason with the disappointment of missing the playoffs altogether.

Two years ago (this link takes you to the Week 17 page from two years ago with the final standings), we actually did pretty well, correctly predicting 9 of the 12 playoff teams, including 5 of the 6 in the AFC.  Last year (again here is the link that will take you to Week 17 with the final standings), we dropped down to 8 of the 12 playoffs teams, but we did correctly predict the Packers over the Steelers in the Super Bowl.

While, last year we were incredibly organized and did two a day every day, leading up to Week 1 kickoff, this year, we had a couple more “distractions,” so Week One will be out momentarily, and then we will just publish the various weeks when we get the chance.  So, stay tuned to BSB for updates, or just follow the tag “nfl week-by-week preview,” which will be on every post.  Also, don’t hesitate to call me out with any disagreements along the way, knowing that one minor assumption I make here can have MAJOR ramifications on the end result.

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The Ridiculous Stat of the Day

The Phillies have only allowed 366 runs against them this year. 

  • The other 31 teams right now average 473 runs against.
  • The only other team under 400 is the Giants (394), but they have actually been outscored on the year (393 runs scored and, along with the lowly Padres and Mariners, are the only teams who have yet to score 400).
  • They have given up over 100 runs fewer than three of the five real NL contenders – 111 fewer than Milwaukee, 112 fewer than Arizona, and 127 fewer than St. Louis.
  • And in the AL (granted there is a DH and just better offenses, in general), the Phils have given up 65 fewer runs than the Yankees, 98 fewer than Boston, 105 fewer than Texas, and 138 fewer than the Tigers.  They have even given up 47 fewer than the Angels and their great “run prevention” team.

By the way, they are also averaging 4.4 runs per game on offense.

Ya, this team is pretty good…

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Holy $*&%!

I blacked out, what just happened…?!?

So, the Eagles – our Eagles – just absolutely, utterly dominated the NFL offseason…and they’re not even finished yet.  I know that I’m prone to hyperbole, and I am an unabashed fan of the Philadelphia Eagles, but I honestly cannot remember an offseason this dominant in any sport since I started following sports.  And, since I have lived through most of the “free agency” era, I am guessing that the offseasons before my memory don’t stand up.  I am embarrassed about my post on Thursday that said that the Philly teams were having a bad week, though I guess my saving grace is that I did say that it’s far from over and a lot of chips have yet to be played.  But…who thought this?  Wow!  Even the New York papers are comparing Philadelphia sports to Michael Corleone.

Because I haven’t near the writing ability to successfully organize all this stuff into one coherent piece, let’s just talk about the moves one by one – in tenative order of awesomeness.  And, yes, all of this has happened since July 29th.

The Birds steal the most coveted free agent from New York and Dallas
Sound familiar?  Over the winter, the #1 free agent on the MLB market was a guy named Cliff Lee.  Anyone who knew anything kept saying the same thing:  that it was a two-city race between New York (the Yankees) and Dallas (the Rangers).  No one knew where he would go, but it was definitely between those two behemoths.  Then, in an absolute shock to everyone, he picked us – Philadelphia (prompting one of my more emotional BSB posts about us, as fans, and our general awesomeness) – despite the fact that we already had three of the best starting pitchers in baseball and were not offering the most money.  He picked us because of us the fans and our team. 

Now, fast forward eight months and the preeminent NFL free agent is mulling over two monster offers from New York (the Jets) and Dallas (the Cowboys).  Just like the Lee negotiations, no one even considered Philadelphia.  No one expert – not Adam Shefter, not Chris Mortensen, not Mike Florio or Mike Lombardi or even Peter King – even mentioned the Eagles, and why would they?  We already had two of the best corners on the planet and we were OFFERING LESS MONEY.  Then, out of the blue, it was announced that the Eagles had signed Nnamdi Asomugha, who wanted to come here because of “first-class organization,” despite leaving money on the table in New York and Dallas.  This is awesome!

The best free agent leaves money on the table from Dallas and New York to come to Philly. Sound familiar?

I heard a pretty cool story about how it was kept so under wraps.  Joe Banner was giving an interview and he said that the first thing is said to Nnamdi’s agent was that the Eagles didn’t want anyone knowing that they were in the running.  He knew that they could keep everything quiet on their end, so if news got out that they were interested, Banner would know that it was Nnamdi’s camp that leaked the information in an attempt to drive up the price, and the Eagles would immediately take the offer off the table.  The whole time WE were Nnamdi’s first choice, and he didn’t want to lose this offer, so they didn’t say a word.  That is just phenomenal management.

Now, aside from the generally incredible feeling resulting from the best player on the market taking less money to play for our team, let’s talk about the on-the-field implications.  Nnamdi is exactly what the Eagles want – a physical press-man corner who allows a variety of blitzing schemes or simply letting the D-ends pin back their ears and go get the QB.  He will not pick up a ton of interceptions (in fact, he didn’t have ANY last year, which is why he’s a free agent now), but that’s only because they never throw at him.  He only allowed 11 receptions all year last year.  Yes, you read that right – ELEVEN RECEPTIONS ALL YEAR.  More on how he fits in with veteran Eagle, Asante Samuel and new Eagle…

Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is officially an Eagle, along with a #2, for Kevin Kolb
This was the best-case scenario.  Honestly, as I said in Thursday’s post before this trade was completed, I would probably take DRC for Kolb, straight-up.  So, for the Cardinals to throw in a #2 (presumably a high #2, since they are more than a Kevin Kolb away from being good) is an absolutely coup.  In fact, I heard that the reason it took so long is because the Birds were holding out for a NUMBER ONE!  Hahaha.  That’s fantastic.  So, this trade was Kevin Kolb (picked #36 in 2007) for Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (picked #16 in 2008) and a 2nd-round pick that is likely to be in the top 40.  Wow!

So, who is this DRC guy?  Well, we’re going to find out – and fast – in this city that this Pro Bowler can seriously play.  He, like Asomugha, is a physical, press-man corner that likes to get up into the shoulder pads of receivers because he knows that he has the pure speed to keep up with anyone in the league with his elite speed and acceleration.

Not many people outside of Arizona really know just how good this guy is...but, they're about to

How will this all work?  Well, there are two VERY good options:  (1) trade Asante and (2) keep all three.  Let’s address each of them:

  1. Exploring trade possibilities for Asante
    Here’s a question for the day –> Who says no to this trade:
    Eagles send Asante Samuel and the #2 pick they got from Arizona to the
    49ers for stud linebacker Patrick WillisI think that that is a pretty fair deal on both side.  The Niners DESPERATELY need a corner now that they were shut out.  Plus, they are sort of rebuilding, so the draft pick would be nice.  And, the hard sell to the fans of moving their best player would be somewhat negated by getting a top-10 corner in return.  As for the Eagles, I think that a stud linebacker would fill a MUCH bigger hole for them than a 3rd corner who probably wouldn’t be happy in that role anyway.  The #2 is a bit much to add to a deal that already includes a top-10 corner, but they are loaded with picks next year, so maybe they get it done with a #3 or #4.

Anyway, no matter what they are thinking as return, it’s gotta be really good because Asante is still elite.  Personally, I’d like to see them come back with a player who can help immediately, but even if they flip it for a #1 and a #3 or something like that, it might be worth exploring, considering they only gave up a backup QB for his TWO replacements and a #2 pick.

  1. Keeping all three as the best secondary in the game
    And, then there’s the option of just keeping all three.  And, while, at first blush, that seems an inefficient usage of their resources, it’s worth looking more into.  Every year this league becomes more and more of a passing league, so it would reason that preventing the passing attack is just as important as having one yourself – if not more.  And, the best teams have figured that out.  I just read somewhere about the defense the Packers used against the Eagles in their wild card game last year.  The Eagles had 66 offensive plays in that game.  The Packers top three cornerbacks, Charles Woodson, Travon Williams, and Sam Shields were on the field for 66, 65, and 63 plays, respectively that game.  The three corners combined to sit out for just four plays all game – and Sam Shields isn’t even that good.  Now, I haven’t spent the time to look into this being a trend for the Packers or anyone else, but that one statistic leads me to believe that a lot of good teams are playing entire games with 3 corners on the field at all times.  I can totally see an Eagles defense with Asante and Nnamdi on the outside with DRC in the slot on all downs except 3rd-and-short, when Asante and his aversion to tackling would come off the field for another backer and DRC would move outside.  (Or Nnamdi in the middle, playing the Charles Woodson role – which he has already said he’d be more than willing to do.)  

    This could work...IF they decide to keep all 3 and IF Asante's pride allows it to work

    This could work…and work very well.  Seriously, think about it:  Nnamdi completely cancels out the best receiver.  DRC is bumping and running with the slot receivers or covering the Stephen Jacksons and Reggie Bushs of the world out of the backfield or even banging with the pass-catching tight end.  And, then Asante is playing off the second receiver, knowing that the other side is taken taken, baiting the QB to make a mistake.  Think about this:  Asante was only THROWN AT 36 times last year, and he came away with 7 interceptions.  With Nnamdi completely taking away the other side and DRC a complete mismatch for the slot receiver/running back, teams will have to throw at Asante consistently.  Is it unrealistic to think that he could intercept 12-15 or even more passes this year in that scenario?  Now, throw in an explosive offense that can score quickly, forcing the other team to throw.  Then, add an ELITE pass rush (more on this in a minute), forcing QBs to make quicker decisions.  How many INTs are we talking now for Asante?  20?  That sounds insane, but is it?  And, how good is this team going to be if they even got 15-20 INTs from the team, as a whole, this year?  This is what we are talking about, people.  Wow.

Ho-hum, the Eagles only sign the best defensive tackle on the market
Lost in the hoop-la of the Kolb trade, the signing of a DE with 12.5 sacks last year (still to come…), and the Asomugha heist is the signing of former Green Bay Packer defensive tackle, Cullen .  If this was the only move that a team made this year, it would probably be heralded as a successful offseason.  Jenkins (the younger brother of former Panthers and Jets star, Kris Jenkins) was, easily, the best defensive lineman on the Super Bowl champions last year, despite playing in virtual anonymity.  He had 7 sacks from the D-TACKLE position, and is very good against the run.  And, to boot, Jenkins is extremely versatile in that he can swing outside and play end without missing a beat – something the Eagles have always loved about d-linemen because they like to keep everyone fresh.  With Mike Patterson still in the fold, if they can get the development they expect this year from Trevor Laws, they may have just turned what was a weakness into a real strength.  

The Birds added an absolute man to the middle of their D-line

Jenkins

The Eagles add the perfect complement to Trent Cole at the other D-End spot
So, I really wanted to add some stupid boasting line about how I predicted the Jason Babin signing months ago, and then I looked up the post that I first said it.  I did find it, but it’s not what I was hoping for because the Babin comment is a throw-away line in an April 29th post about that was all about how the Eagles were going to get Patrick Peterson and would trade away Danny Watkins.  Ya, well, at least the throw-away line was right because the crux of the post was dead-wrong.  Oh well…

Coach Wash has brought the best out of a number of d-line stars, but Jason Babin is one of his shining stars

Anyway, the Eagles signed Jason Babin and his 12.5 sacks to play opposite Trent Cole on a suddenly terrifying d-line.  All of a sudden, this line is ferocious – and very well-constructed, as well.  We all know what Trent Cole can do to disrupt opposing offenses, but they never totally had a defense that allowed him to do what he does best – get after the quarterback.  Now, that they have a stalwart set of corners and a strength in the middle of the d-line, Cole can pin back his ears and rush the passer.  Add into the mix the addition of Jason Babin, and either Cole will see very few double-teams OR Babin is going to lead the league in sacks.  With Jim Washburn – who is generally accepted as the best in the business and one of the main reasons for Babin’s success – coaching these guys up, the sky is the limit with how good this line will be at getting after the QB.

There are still a few questions about their run defense because the line is the more smalllish type of a line that relies more on speed than strength, and the linebackers are, well, almost non-existent, but, if the offense is as good as we think it might be, this problem could be somewhat negated by playing so often with the lead.  And, I’m really doubting that any team will be able to throw much on this team in any formation with these blisteringly quick pass rushers and lockdown, best of the best corners.

While we’re at it, why don’t we go ahead and fill the biggest remaining hole on offense
A lot of people would say that even before the Winston Justice injury news came out that the Eagles were in need of a right tackle.  Justice, who was added to the PUP list last week, wasn’t really all that confidence-inducing when assumed healthy.  And, with our left-handed quarterback (the starter, that is, not the newly-acquired backup…oops), the right tackle is responsible for the blind side – the blind side of an injury-prone QB, that is.  So, this was a concern…

Well, probably not anymore.  In, easily the most underrated signing of this entire crazy week for the Birds, they signed former Bronco offensive tackle Ryan Harris to a one-year deal.  Never heard of Ryan Harris before becoming an Eagle?  Yeah, me neither, but how many right tackles are well-known (or known at all) outside of the cities in which they play?  Not many.  Harris is very, very good.  He’s not a Jon Runyan type bruiser, but this team is not exactly a hit-you-in-the-mouth kind of an offense, and at 6’5” and 300 pounds, Harris is extremely agile and athletic.  He has started 34 of the 35 games in which he has played over the past 3 years and was exceptional for his first two years as a starter.  In fact, remember two years ago when the Broncos started 6-0 and then finished 2-8 down the stretch and missed the playoffs?  Well, Harris got hurt in Week 8, and a lot of people in Denver actually think that his loss was one of the main factors that led to the team’s ultimate collapse offensively.

Before injury and changing coaching staffs, Ryan Harris was a future star in Denver...and he's still only 26

And, with GMs well aware of this, Harris was a relatively coveted commodity on the market this year.  They know that he is a 26-year old former 3rd-round pick from the Notre Dame o-line factory.  And, they know that he is just entering the prime of his career (many people around the league think that he should have already been a Pro Bowler).  But, as is the theme of the year in this city, Harris was willing to take less money to come play in Philly.  And, with his pedigree and ability, I think it’s safe to say that he is coming in as the starting right tackle – regardless of the health of Winston Justice or King Dunlap.

The last of the Eagles’ draft picks signs on

The former fireman from Vancouver may now be the Eagles starting left guard

With the new rules in place, it is unclear as to why the Eagles had so much trouble reaching an agreement with #1 pick, Danny Watkins, but all of that doesn’t matter now, as the former Baylor offensive lineman is officially a member of the Philadelphia Eagles for the next four years.  And, this is a really good sign because with the much-abbreviated offseason, it is going to be a lot harder to rookies – particularly offensive lineman – to be able to pick up the schemes right away.  So, any missed time will be big for a guy like Watkins, who, at 26 years old already, has a pretty good shot at being the Eagles starting guard…a position, by the way, that he has never played.  So, while this is still a big question mark, it is not nearly as big as it would be if Watkins missed any more time as a holdout.

Sure, Why Not?  We do need a part-time running back, so he might as well be a Pro Bowler
This week started similarly to how last week ended, as the Birds inked yet another Pro Bowler (and former #2 pick in the draft) to fill the Jerome Harrison, backup running back role.  Ronnie Brown has come to terms with the Birds on a one-year deal to come in and do, well, whatever the offensive coaching staff wants to do with this cool new toy.  And, this is a toy that fits the Birds’ need to a tee

First of all, he’s versatile.  As a former 1,000-yard rusher, we all know he can run the ball, but he has also been one of the best pass-catching running  backs in the sport over the past couple of seasons, with 30+ catches in every full season he has played (including 389 yards on 39 catches in just 7 games in 2007) since entering the league in 2005.  And, he complements McCoy in that he is willing to run downhill.  While he’s not what everyone would envision as a 3rd-and-1 masher, he is actually very good in short yardage and goalline situations.  Add in the fact that he is a very good blocker, and you’ve got yourself one of the more complete backs in the league – at a fraction of the price that Brown’s old team paid for Reggie Bush.

This do-it-all running back won't have to do it all in Philly, but he may be a cure for the Birds' recent red zone ills

And, maybe the best part about the whole thing is the kind of guy that the Eagles signed here.  Despite his immense natural ability (6’0”, 230 pounds and ran a 4.3-forty – though doubtful he’d do that anymore), Brown has always been one of those no-nonsense, lunch-pail kind of guys.  He does whatever it takes to win.  And, has no problem sharing the load, as he has done every year since high school.  He was only half of a great backfield at Auburn (Cadillac Williams and even Brandon Jacobs for a year, before transferring) and then, despite being the #2 overall pick, Brown was only one half of the backfield in Miami, as he shared the load with Ricky Williams most of his years there.  The guy just wants to win – which is probably why he (…cue the phrase of the year…) took less money to come play here in Philly.

So, you were the #3 overall pick?  You basically won the BCS title game single-handedly right after being awarded the Heisman Trophy?  Then you went on to win two-thirds of your NFL games as a starter?  Great, sounds like you’d make a semi-decent backup quarterback…

In this era of fantasy football and "advanced statistics," some people lose sight of the fact that the ultimate job of a professional athlete is to WIN GAMES

A lot of people are luke-warm on the Vince Young signing, and, honestly, I have no idea why.  This is a phenomenal signing.  Let me remind you guys – HE IS NOT GOING TO BE THE STARTING QUARTERBACK.  And, is there a better backup quarterback in the entire league?  Maybe, maybe not.  But, if so, there aren’t many and they’re only marginally better.  And, I assure you that none of them will fit the Birds’ needs better.  Unlike with Kolb, now, if Vick goes down for a couple games, they do not have to change the playbook very much.  And, if Vick happens to go down for a significant period of time, you don’t necessarily have to throw the season away because Young has had a lot of success before.  Do I want VY as my #1 quarterback?  Hell no.  Do I think he’s got the head to be a superstar?  Almost unquestionably not.  Do I trust him a hell of a lot more than the Jim Sorgis, Jared Lorenzens, or even Mike Kafkas of the world?  Without a doubt.  Say what you will about him (and his stupid comments), but he is 30-17 as a starter in the National Football League and that was all for a team that did not have anywhere near the talent that this one does.  Just sayin’…

We need a safety, so let’s just go grab a 26-year old who has already started 40 games in the NFL
Considering the Eagles do not believe in the linebacker position, and they have completely shored up the d-line and cornerback position, that only leaves safety left to be addressed.  And, since all the other picks have been Pro Bowlers and superstars, a guy like Jarrad Page almost makes you shrug your shoulders.  But, let’s not lose perspective here.  Page started 37 straight games for the Chiefs

Meet your new starting safety, Philadelphia

from ’07-09 before getting hurt.  He was picked up by the Patriots last year and was a really solid 3rd safety for a pretty good defense.  Now, he comes here to vie for the starting strong safety spot vacated by the departed Quintin Mikell.  Whether or not he starts is still up in the air, but there is no doubt that he is very talented and very much worthy of a roster spot at a position of relative weakness on this team (and by “weakness” I mean doesn’t have a slew of All-Pros).  At the very least, he will provide nice experience in the secondary and on special teams, while providing an insurance policy strong safety.  At best, he will come right in and beat out Kurt Coleman and Temple rookie Jaiquawn Jarrett and fill to void left by Mikell.  

Hey, if you’re just going to give draft picks away, we’ll take one…
As a great hidden bonus to the Cullen Jenkins signing was that it enabled the Birds to find a sucker (first the Browns, ultimately the Broncos) to send over a 5th-round pick in exchange for the oversized jersey of Broderick Bunkley.  They turned a guy who most likely would have been released into a decent 5th-round pick.  Brilliant!

After all these signings, it’s hard to imagine what to do with this EXTRA $4 million in cap space
Yes, folks, that’s right.  The Eagles may already have had the best offseason in the history of sports…and THEY MIGHT NOT BE DONE!  According to this interesting website someone told me about,

He certainly is "different"

the Eagles still have a shade under $4 million of cap space to play with.  Now, I’m no capologist, but that sounds like plenty of room to sign DeSean Jackson to an extension AND add at least one more quality piece.  And, if I had to bet money on it, I would put my money on that piece being some guy who used to wear #84 for the Vikings and #81 for the Patriots.  Obviously, I am not the first to put it out there (some have even reported that an offer has already been made), but would it shock anyone if Andy Reid went out and signed Randy Moss to an incentive-laden, essentially risk-free contract?  Now, who knows if he has anything left in the tank, but one thing we do know is that he has proven doubters wrong in the past when they said he was done.  And, he certainly has a lot to prove right now.  Hmm……

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The Hunter Pence Trade

The Phils' New Right Fielder

Ruben Amaro Jr. strikes again, acquiring an All-Star at the trade deadline for the third consecutive year.  Of course, that doesn’t include the December 2009 trade that brought Roy Halladay to Philly.  Some bullet-point reactions to the trade:

On Pence:

  • Phillie fans should probably temper expectations for Pence to some degree.  Yes, he’s a (fairly) young, 2-time All-Star that can do a ton of nice things.  But he’s far from a superstar.
  • In some ways, Pence can be compared to Jayson Werth, but with much less patience at the plate, worse defense, but more consistent as a hitter.
  • An underrated plus for Pence: he has never been hurt.
  • Another plus: his stats don’t blow you away, but he’s been incredibly consistent.  He hit exactly 25 home runs each of the last three seasons.  Though he’s well below that pace this year.
  • In 658 plate appearances last year, he walked 41 times.  He’s on a similar pace this year.  That is a very low walk rate.
  • His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) this year is .368, over 60 points higher than the last three years.  That means his .308 average this year is a fluke that can be expected to drop significantly.
  • He appears to be a guy that could’ve really used the Davey Lopes Base-Stealing School.  He has good speed, but his stolen base percentage is just over 60% for his career.  Though he is 7 for 8 so far this year.  He stole a career-high 18 bags last year.
  • He has been a significantly better hitter in his career at his home park in Houston, a hitter’s park on par with the Bank.  So we can’t expect any CBP Bump in his production.
  • While it’s true that the Phils will have Pence for less than market value over the next two seasons, he’ll be far from cheap.  He could be expected to cost roughly $25 mil. over the two seasons.
  • All that being said, there can’t be any doubt that Pence makes the Phillies a better team immediately.  Charlie has already said he expects to bat him 5th, with Victorino moving back up to 2nd, which I think makes a ton of sense.

On What They Traded:

  • On the plus side: the two top prospects they surrendered are both in A-Ball, and so much can go wrong in the development of a player between A-Ball and the majors.
  • As highly as Cosart is rated, he’s still considered high risk/high reward.  Seems like after the deal went down, some Phils people intimated they have concerns about his maturity.  Maybe true, maybe just trying to justify moving him.
  • Singleton is mostly seen as a “won’t-miss” ML bat, but he basically has no position and is 19-years-old. 
  • All in all, safe to say the Phils over-paid for what Pence is, though when you’re clearly in “win-now” mode, you often have to overpay.
  • List of prospects the Phils have now moved since July of 2009: Kyle Drabek, Carlos Carrasco, J.A. Happ, Jared Cosart, Michael Taylor, Jason Knapp, Jonathan Singleton, Anthony Gose, Travis D’Arnaud, Lou Marson, and Jason Donald.  Varying degrees of talent there, of course, but that’s a ton of young players to vacate from your organization over the span of just two calendar years.
  • On the one hand, you have to give credit to the front office and scouts for continually stocking desired young talent.  On the other hand, you have to wonder when the well runs dry.
  • I suspect Domonic Brown was never put on the table and the Phillies never had any intention of trading him.  I know his name was thrown around, but certainly a team like the Astros had something to gain by hinting that the Phillies were putting Brown out there.  It could’ve forced the Braves to flinch and include one of their prospects that they didn’t want to lose.

Overall:

I’m not sure if I would’ve made this trade or not.  It’s not that I am super-high on Cosart and Singleton, but more that I have my doubts about Hunter Pence.  I wonder, for example, if Cosart and Singleton could’ve been the centerpieces of a deal for a better player than Pence in the coming offseason.  Maybe a Matt Kemp?

But, we can’t forget that the Phils are virtually all-in for a title THIS year.  I can’t fault Amaro for his decision.  I love the aggressiveness.  The team has all the pieces to win it all.  Though another bullpen arm wouldn’t hurt.  Us Phillie fans are greedy all of a sudden, huh?

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Not Exactly a Great Week So Far…

With the best week in off-the-field sports history now into Thursday, the great hopes for our Philly teams have taken a bit of cold bath thus far.  Before we rundown the happenings in the past 48 hours (none of which is good for either the Phils or Eagles), let’s take a minute to pause and take a breath.  While it hasn’t been “good” yet, it also hasn’t been “bad.”  A lot more of the action is still to come over the next 4-5 days, and there are a lot of chips still to be played, so, by no means, have we lost here in either sport.  But, the early returns are not exactly the big “splashes” to which we grown accustomed recently.

[UPDATE: Pretty much right after posting this, report surfaced that the Birds have signed Jason Babin…so, things are looking up]

[UPDATE:  There have been a couple of baseball injuries to add to this list that I left off when first posted, but have significance and are in with the “theme.”0

Jason Giambi may go to the disabled list
The Phillies and Rockies had pretty much completed a deal that would bring Jason Giambi to Philly for a bit prospect.  It is a very Pat Gillick-esque move (think Matt Stairs or Tad Iguchi) that sometimes makes the difference on a championship club.  But, now that Giambi may be heading to the DL just in time for the non-waiver trade deadline to roll over, it may not happen.  And, with all the teams fighting with the Phils in the NL having worse records than they do, this would be an easy “block” situation after the deadline.

Dayan Viciedo has an apparent thumb injury
Never heard of Dayan Viciedo?  Really?  Well, me neither.  But, his injury could really change the landscape of the next 3 months in the lives of Phillies fans.  Viciedo is an outfield prospect for the White Sox and is supposed to be the immediate replacement for Carlos Quentin.  With Viciedo ready to go, the Sox would be much more likely to move Quentin (a big, right-handed bat with pop), and the Phils are probably the front-runners to get him if Kenny Williams decides to move him.  But, with Viciedo out and the Sox still in the race in a bad, bad division, Quentin could be off the table.

—————-
Carlos Beltran traded to the Giants

The defending champs needed offense desperately – and they got it.  Not only did the Phils fail to land the one guy who was probably the best fit for their lineup right now, but he ended up in the worst possible place for Phillies fans.  The Giants pitching has already proven that they can go toe-to-toe with the Phils in October and now they may not even need a lightning-in-a-bottle postseason from a guy like Cody Ross because Beltran is a stud.

The Cardinals seem to be playing hardball for Kevin Kolb
Now, I do think that this deal will get done, and I do think that Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will be involved in the deal, so at the end of the day, this will be a fine result.  But, the sticking point is now that additional draft pick.  At first, it looked like the Birds were going to get DRC and a 2nd-round pick.  But, now that the Cards could be using guys like Kyle Orton as leverage, that draft pick is more likely to be in the area of a 4th-rounder.  Still nice, but it’s nerve-racking that a seemingly done-deal is still not done.

The Astros rejected a big Phillies offer for Hunter Pence and now want more
According to various sources, the Phils offered their best pitching prospect (Jarred Cosart), their best hitting prospect (Jonathan Singleton), and another yet-to-be-determined prospect for Pence.  I like Pence, but I thought that this was way too much to give up for him.  And now the rumor is that the Phils, in almost desperate fashion, are reported to be strongly considering using Dominic Brown to get this trade done.  I really hope this doesn’t happen, even if the alternative is Pence in a Braves uniform.  I am not ready to mortgage the future for a year and a half of Hunter Pence.  Again, I think he’s a really solid player, but this asking price is GIGANTIC!  That being said, if we can get him straight-up for Vance Worley, then DO IT!  But, now Brown, and not a collection of young prospects.

The Patriots traded for Albert Hayesworth
Aside from the fact that I don’t get this at all, being that Haynesworth’s big issue was that he didn’t want to play in a 3-4, I was pretty upset when I heard this news.  A fifth-round pick for a guy with that talent is shades of Randy Moss.  And, whether he works out in NE or not, I really think that he could have been a BEAST here in Eagles’ green.  Now, maybe this is not over and the Pats could still deal him here for more, but it doesn’t look good at this point.

Quintin Mikell is gone; Stewart Bradley and Jerome Harrison are next
The Eagles have not, as of yet, resigned ANY of their own free agents.  Quintin Mikell (one of the most underrated safeties in the game) has already inked with the Rams.  Jerome Harrison is about to sign with someone, and it is a bit disconcerting that Stewart Bradley hasn’t been resigned yet.

DeSean Jackson is going to hold out
This one could top all of the news of the week.  D-Jack, rightfully so, feels underpaid.  And, how do you get more money?  The American way – that’s how.  Just don’t show up for work.  Here’s the problem:  Jackson correctly believes that he is AT LEAST of equal caliber to Santonio Holmes, who just signed for $50 million.  But, on the Eagles side, while that may be completely true, are they willing to invest $50 million in a guy who weighs about a buck-sixty and already has had several concussions?  Throw in the fact that they drafted Jeremy Maclin to be a #1 and you’ve got yourself a possible recipe for a long, ugly disagreement between player and management…ugh.

Reggie Bush is traded to the Dolphins
Not that complementary running back is of the highest priority for this team, but Bush was relatively inexpensive and could have really added a dynamic dimension to this already impossible-to-defend offense.

First-Round Pick Danny Watkins remains unsigned
The one thing the Birds have done this week is sign 9 of their first 10 draft picks of 2011.  The only one missing – top pick, Danny Watkins.  With training camp starting today – and a very condensed schedule – it is essential that the offensive line (particularly the new guys) get working together.  Watkins needs to be in camp.

Plaxico might head back to the Giants
Like Bush (or Haynesworth, for that matter), Plax wasn’t priority #1, but, at a cheap price, it would have been a nice gamble to see the team take.  Now, it looks like he might end up back in the Meadowlands, which might mean that the Eagles pay doubly for passing on him.

Nothing Doing at Defensive End
While free agent signings cannot technically be announced until later today, a lot of deals have been announced.  And, while I still believe that the Eagles will land one of the top D-ends (Ray Edwards or Jason Babin), you never know until it’s done.  And, it’s looking more and more like it is going to be the 31-year old Babin (as predicted here five months ago) and not the 26-year old Edwards.

Nnamdi will not be an Eagle
This one is not really a “loss” because with DRC, the Birds now have much more pressing issues elsewhere.  But, he is the best player on the market, and there was wild speculation that he would be an Eagle, so now that he’s not, it’s hurts a little bit.  That being said, it looks like he might end up a New York Jet, which is WAY better than a Cowboy or a Redskin.

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Back to Work for the Birds – Names to Watch

As convenient as it may seem to blame the NFL lockout on my own hiatus on the BSB front, the real story is that I was in labor negotiations myself. I played was playing hardball over my share of the BSB “total pie.” But today, in the spirit of labor peace (and a lucrative offer of a $5 per story donation to Hope Through Health, www.hthglobal.org, from a loyal BSB follower).

So, the most exciting two weeks in the history of off-the-field sports transactions will begin tomorrow, as the NFL lockout is lifted and the MLB trade deadline nears its climax. In preparation of Eagles roster moves as early as tomorrow, I wanted to run through some of the names that will most likely be associated with the Eagles in some way or another over the course of the whirlwind that we are about to enter.

THE KOLB DEAL
Kevin Kolb

Looks like another in the long line of huge trade returns for Eagles backup QBs

Obviously, the most bandied about name in the NFL would be the most on his own team. And, that guy is Kevin Kolb. It is almost a lock that Kevin Kolb will be traded, and it seems pretty definitive that it will be to the Arizona Cardinals. Would I make this move? Almost definitely – as long as I believe I maximized his value. He will never be more valuable than he is right now, the Birds have a Pro Bowl starting quarterback, and the jury is still out as to whether or not Kolb will ever even be a reliable starter in this league. They spent a second round pick on the guy, got a couple wins from him, and now it appears they are going to flip him for MUCH more than a 2nd round pick. The question is how much more…

Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
The most likely return for Kolb is Cardinals 5th year cornerback, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and probably a draft pick as high as a 2nd-rounder. If you’re asking me: DO IT! Rodgers-Cromartie is very, very underrated. He’s got size, speed, toughness, and he is just coming into his prime. I think this guy might be a superstar as soon as this year. His ability might go unnoticed because of where he plays and because another guy at his position has the same last name, just in a slightly different media market. The only reason I would not do this deal is if I had a shot at…

Patrick Peterson
He’s a game-changer. The Cardinals picked him #5 this year and, at the time, I thought that that meant he would be an Eagle. It looks more now like the Cards got him just so that they could part with Rodgers-Cromartie, but if there’s a chance of grabbing Peterson, I wouldn’t even mind seeing a draft pick go the other way in the deal, if that’s what it takes. But, this is probably wishful thinking, and trust me, DRC is quite the consolation prize, especially if a 2nd or 3rd round pick is thrown in.

EAGLES FREE AGENTS:
Stewart Bradley

If he had been healthy all these years, he'd be a household name

The first thing that is going to happen for the Birds in this “offseason on crack” is the Kolb trade, but the next thing that they will do is try to bring back their own free agents. Teams will probably have three days to negotiate with their own free agents before they hit the open market. And, probably the most interesting piece of this puzzle for the birds is Stewart Bradley. I really believe that a healthy Stewart Bradley might be a borderline franchise player on the defensive side of the ball. The problem is there is no possible way to prove me wrong about this because we have never really seen a healthy Stewart Bradley. I expect (and really hope) that Bradley comes back, but it would be hard to fault the team to letting him walk because it is very difficult to build a defense for a Super Bowl run without any confidence that your middle linebacker will even be healthy come December.

Quintin Mikell
From the sound of it, we may have seen the last of Quintin Mikell in an Eagles uniform. And, honestly, I am not happy about it. I think Mikell is about to become (if he isn’t already) one of the better strong safeties in the league. But, he is a free agent, and from the looks of it, it is not at the top of the Eagles priority list to bring him back. If he leaves, he will be missed.

Jerome Harrison
It is looking more and more like Jerome Harrison’s Eagle career will end after just 8 games.  To be completely honest, I really don’t know if it is because he is looking for starters’ money or if the Eagles just don’t have him in their plans for the upcoming season.  If it’s the former, I would wish him luck and move on, but if it is the Eagles that are choosing to cut the cord, I hope that they have a direct replacement in line (maybe one of the guys listed in the next section) because I actually think Harrison still has some value, and, as the roster is constructed right now, I think that this season may depend a little too much on the health/effectiveness of Shady McCoy.  I do believe they have a plan, though, and if that plan is an upgrade to Harrison, then great.  But, if not – bring him back.

David Akers

He'll be missed...for a kicker

There is only one kicker that I have ever actually felt a connection to.  There is only one kicker that I have ever been proud to root for and felt was “one of us.”  There is only one kicker that I have ever watched on a regular basis and thought of him as a real part of the team.  And, that is David Akers.  But…he’s still a kicker.  And, with all due respect to what he has brought to this team for so long, I am not really losing sleep over the chance of losing him in the next couple of days.  Don’t get me wrong, I am not and have never taken for granted how great it was to have such an incredibly accurate and reliable kicker.  But, when they go downhill, sometimes they go really quickly.  And, while I have a lot of mixed feelings on using a 4th-round pick on a kicker, the Birds did draft the most accurate kicker in NCAA history (Alex Henery), so maybe they are going to replace the great David Akers with the next David Akers.

OTHER FREE AGENTS/POTENTIAL TRADE TARGETS:
Nnamdi Asomugha

If Kolb isn’t the most talked about name this offseason, it is probably because people think they know how to spell Kolb – they don’t even try with the guy who should be the most talked about. Nnamdi Asomugha is one of the two best cornerbacks on the planet, and I am not convinced he is not the best. And, he is an unrestricted free agent. If the Eagles didn’t have this Kolb off-the-charts-value fall in their laps, I would have said that they were the clear-cut favorites to sign Nnamdi. But, now, if they can get DRC (or Peterson) for their backup QB, then they can save the money to spend on someone else. And, while Nnamdi is incredible, it would be a little dicey to have two highly-paid cornerbacks, both entering their 30’s together. I never thought I would say this, but it might be best if we actually let this one off the line, even though it’s pretty sweet to dream about it. All that being said, if the Eagles, somehow, do not land a CB in the Kolb deal, then they had better get this guy. My real fear is that he ends up with a star on his helmet, but we’ll deal with that if it happens. My guess is that he either ends up in that same state, but a couple hundred miles away in Houston or, even more likely, in my home state, just a couple miles from my house – in Baltimore.

Johnathan Joseph

So, he's not Nnamdi...but he's damn close

Again, now that it looks more and more likely that the Birds are going to trade Kolb for a cornerback and not just draft picks, the less and less important the free agent crop of corners becomes to them. However, if they decide to either keep Kolb or they decide to trade him just for picks, they will need to make a splash in free agency at CB. And, if it isn’t Nnamdi, then I really hope it is a guy that no one seems to be talking about – Jonathan Joseph. While not quite on the Nnamdi level, I think Joseph might end up being the best bargain of this wild free agency period. Joseph is an absolute stud, who may be just a small step below Nnamdi and Revis as the best in the business. And, he is only 27 and probably won’t command near the price tag of Asomugha.

Jason Babin
Ah, the prodigal son returns…I have said this on BSB several times now, but the one thing that I believe will come out of the blue this offseason for the Birds is the return of Jason Babin. And, I will now add to this prediction. Mark it down – the Eagles will try to sell to the fanbase that Babin is their “big free agent pickup” this offseason, and Howie Roseman and company will use this signing as reason why they did not sign Nnamdi. Eagles fans will be up in arms about how the team always oversells their moves and never actually goes for it. And, in the end, the team will be right and the fans will be wrong…again. Babin emerged as a potential superstar defensive end while in Tennessee. Why the sudden emergence? Some guy named Jim Washburn, who is not the Eagles D-line coach. I expect the Birds to sign Babin, and I expect him to be a terror opposite Trent Cole for several years to come.

Ray Edwards

This could be the kind of signing that is more likely to win you the front pages in January than it will in August

While I have been predicting a return of Jason Babin, I have been hearing more and more that the Eagles are leaning towards the younger, more well-rounded Ray Edwards.  There was even a report of a real estate agent showing houses in Malvern to the Edwards family.  And, honestly, if this is true, the Birds will have proved again that they really know what they are doing.  Edwards would be a fantastic fit opposite Trent Cole.  He is a very good, efficient pass rusher, especially when single-teamed on passing downs (which he was in Minnesota and would be here), but he is also a stellar run defender.  He has the rare combination of effective pass rushing ability with the ability to set the edge on run plays – something that guys like Darren Howard and Brandon Graham were not able to do that well last year.

Tamba Hali
It is still unclear as to whether or not Hali will even be available this year because the Chiefs are most likely going to make a push to keep him.  But, if for whatever reason, he becomes available, he is definitely a guy that the Eagles will want to try and bring in.  At 25 years old last year, Hali broke out in a big way with 14.5 sacks and was one of the keys to the surprising season in Kansas City.  He would be a monster opposite Trent Cole, and I am drooling thinking about those two rushing the passer while Samuel and DRC shutdown receivers on the outside.  Though I am a little worried about just how high the price tag is, but I do know that he would be an instant favorite here at BSB to Doogan because of his Penn State roots, to me because of his West African heritage, and to all of Eagles Nation because of his pass rushing prowess.

Albert Haynesworth

Character issues? I hadn't heard...

This one is more “what if…?” kind of speculation than anything actually founded in reality.  But, what if…?  Yes, maybe I am a little too caught up in ignoring his “issues” and just focusing on how good he was in Tennessee under Jim Washburn, but when I hear him say things like “I’d give up everything to play for Coach Wash again,” I can’t help but wonder.  Let us not forget that it was just two years ago that an NFL franchise gave him $100 million.  In 2008, he was the most dominant interior lineman on the planet (and the Sporting News Defensive Player of the Year).  He is still only 30 years old.  Most of that ridiculous contract is already in his bank account via Daniel Snyder’s brilliantly structured contract that paid a notoriously unmotivated player all the money upfront.  Now, the only thing he’s got left to earn is his pride, which coupled with a once-in-a-generation set of abilities, could be a dangerous recipe.  But, here’s the problem:  Haynesworth, much to the dismay of Mike Shanahan, is still technically a member of the Washington Redskins.  So, unless the Redskins flat-out release him (which is unlikely because he does seem to have some value – though you never know with the ‘Skins), acquiring him would mean trading for him.  And, while the Redskins have been pretty inept in the front office, they do now have Bruce Allen running the show, and he is more than smart enough to know that Haynesworth is more valuable to the Eagles than anyone else because of Washburn.  And, therefore, will probably charge the Birds an “in-division tax.”  All that being said, if I were running the Eagles, I think that I might be willing to go as high as a fifth and a seventh or possibly even a fourth-round pick for Haynesworth simply on the remote possibility that I’d be acquiring the best D-tackle in football.

Plaxico Burress

The jury is still out - so to speak - on whether he's got anything left in the tank

He wore a Phillies hat when he was released from prison – that must mean he is definitely signing with the Eagles, right? Well, not exactly. The Eagles on the short list of Plax destinations, but let’s slow down before dreaming of the Vick to Burress red zone celebration of the American criminal justice system’s powers of rehabilitation. Would Burress help in the red zone? Sure. Would I mind if the Eagles brought him in on a smallish, incentive-laden contract? Probably not. Would it be impossible to express how shocked I would have been three years ago if you told me that Michael Vick and Plaxico Burress would be the big Eagles receiving combo in 2011? Uh, yes. The problem is that it seems like there are several teams pretty interested in what Plax can do. I would love to have him, but I would not like to see the Birds getting in a bidding war for what may likely amount to nothing more than an older, more rusty version of a guy they already have on the roster in Jason Avant. Don’t break the bank, but if he’s cheap, take a shot. I mean any friend of Jimmy Rollins if a friend of Philadelphia, right?

Reggie Bush
This makes a lot more sense, actually, than Burress does, and I think I would be willing to up the dollars and years on an offer to Reggie Bush than I would to Plaxico. In fact, while Reggie Bush has never even come close to living up to the #2 overall pick (which absolutely shocks me because he seemed, to me, to be unequivocally destined for Canton), he actually comes out of New Orleans a little bit underrated, if you can believe that. For one, he is an elite pass-catcher out of the backfield, and, as we all know, those kinds of guys can really thrive in Andy Reid’s system. Also, while small, he is a smart player, who is pretty decent on the blitz pickup. Tell me you don’t get somewhat excited thinking about Vick and Bush on the field together on a broken play. I say, unless someone offers him a big contract, bring him to Philly.

Willis McGahee

The guy's just got a nose for the end zone

In news that just broke as I was writing this post, it looks like the Ravens are going to release McGahee as soon as they are able to do so.  While it is still too early for me to have heard any rumors, I would be pretty surprised if his name wasn’t connected to the Birds, at least in rumor, this offseason, for the same reason they have been connected to Burress – their struggles in the red zone last year.  Having watched McGahee first-hand here in Baltimore for the past several seasons, I know how frustrating he can be in the middle of the field, BUT, I also know that he is just one of those rare guys with a true nose for paydirt.  And, with all those weapons on this team to get them the first 90 yards, McGahee might be a really nice addition to help get those last 10.

Derrick Mason
Again, this news is “hot off the presses” and maybe a bigger story here in B’more than anywhere else, but Derrick Mason is probably going to join McGahee on Tuesday as the newest crop of ex-Ravens.  I do not really think that the Eagles necessarily need a guy like Mason, I figure I’d throw his name out there because if they’re interested in Plax, I’m sure they’d be interested in this guy.  Plus, unlike a guy like Burress, Mason might be the perfect “veteran presence” for a group of young, talented receivers.  However, as a Raven fan (and friend of the site) opined when I mentioned this possibility, Mason’s whole game is based on intricate timing and route-running, and, if you were running down a list of Michael Vick’s strengths, you might be there a while before reaching “intricate timing” as one of his best qualities.

Vince Young

Isn't the point in this league still to win games?

With Kolb out of the picture, the Birds will have to turn to filling the backup QB spot with someone who can step right in and win games if (and, some people believe, when) Michael Vick goes down. Vince Young would seem like a really nice fit. For one, they would not have to change the playbook drastically if Vick went down. Young, like Vick, is a left-handed thrower with a relatively long delivery and phenomenal movement in the pocket. And, let us not forget that, despite everything that people have said and written about the guy, he is one of very few people that can say that they have won 2/3 of the games they’ve started in the NFL. I think I would be totally onboard with VY as the backup here – at least until Kafka is ready to take that role…or be traded for 3 times what it cost to acquire him…

The Former Falcons/Packers/Jets/Vikings Quarterback from Mississippi that Cannot Stay Away from Untimely Interceptions, Disturbing Wrangler Jean Commercials or Inappropriate Text Messages
I can’t tell you how much it pains me to write this section, but with the rumors flying, I would be remiss to not even address it…I will, however, refuse to use his name out of respect for the dead. And, the only thing I actually will say is, “please God, no.” Not only will I find it very, very difficult to root for him, I also cannot imagine it not undermining the startership of our current QB, regardless of what he says on Twitter.

Donovan McNabb
Hey, the backup QB position will be open in Philly, and Mr. McNabb is on his way out of Washington, so there will inevitably be the shameless rumors about him coming back to Philly. This will not (and better not) happen.

Terrell Owens
After tearing his ACL filming some ridiculous reality show, it looked like the Hall of Fame career of one of the most interesting athletes in a generation would end at the age of 37. But, smarter men than me have stupidly discounted his work ethic and commitment to the game, so I will not do that here. But, will he be back in Philly? Let’s just say, it’s not 0%, but it’s not much more than that.

Brian Westbrook
Just like McNabb and TO, Westbrook is looking for work, so I am sure rumors will attach him to the Eagles. I love B-West, but he’s done…unfortunately.

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A Possible Beltran Trade

Will the Phils hire this gun?

It’s that time of year in baseball where trade rumors fly in every direction, and the big Phillie rumor swirling over the past 24 hours is that the team is “aggressively” pursuing Mets outfielder Carlos Beltran.

I have somewhat conflicting feelings about acquiring Beltran, but if the deal were to go down, I’m sure I’d be on board pretty quickly.  There’s no doubt that Beltran is still a very productive hitter (from both sides of the plate) and even though he’s showing his age, he still has plus-speed and is a capable defender in right field.

Strictly from the standpoint of, “What should the Phillies do to win a World Series this year?”, a trade for Beltran is maybe the best move they could possibly make.  He’s punished left-handed pitching throughout his career.  In my opinion, it would make sense to slot him right into the 3-hole in the order, making a line-up that would look something like this:

1. Rollins
2. Utley
3. Beltran
4. Howard
5. Victorino
6. Ibanez/Brown
7. Polanco
8. Ruiz

That line-up has all three lefty bats split up, with two guys (Beltran and Victorino) that hit lefties really well doing the splitting.  And as much as we might not like to admit it, Utley’s downward trend in power numbers means he’s probably more suited to hit 2nd then 3rd these days.

With the Red Sox considered to be the other team that is most aggressively pursuing Beltran, it’s not hard to imagine this bidding war being the deciding factor in the Fall Classic in a few months.  The Sox and Phils could probably be considered the co-favorites right now, so it’s safe to say that if either adds Beltran they would be considered the odds-on favorite.

All that being said, I’m not totally on-board.  Strictly from a fan standpoint (i.e. not very logical), I don’t like the idea of “renting” players for a few months.  Considering Beltran’s age, it seems unlikely that the Phils would be interested in re-signing him after the season.  They already have enough money committed to players in their 30’s going forward.

As much as I want another championship, you have to wonder at what point bringing in hired guns cheapens the feeling.  I know the cliche is that we’re all just rooting for laundry, and there’s certainly a ton of truth in that.  But that cliche overlooks the fact that when you watch a group of players play together every night, year after year, in said laundry, you obviously develop an affection for the players wearing that laundry.  Even if they don’t totally care which team they’re playing for or which fans are rooting for them, that doesn’t mean we can’t feel a legitimate connection to them and an added appreciation when they succeed.

It doesn’t help matters that this potential hired gun is being hired from an arch-rival.  I still remember fondly Beltran’s last postseason at-bat, mostly because it was the Mets’ last postseason at-bat: an Adam Wainwright curveball that he watched go by to end the 2006 NLCS.  I was in a bar in New York City and my cheer went up just as the rest of the bar went silent.  It was the premature end of the road for this still mostly-intact Mets nucleus.

Now that same player could join the Phillies nucleus that we’ve watched come together for the past five years.  Sure, Halladay, Lee, and Oswalt are all guys that established themselves elsewhere before the newfound deep pockets of the Phillies gave them the chance to bring them aboard.  But Halladay and Lee are both guys that really wanted to be here and are signed for the long-term.  We may not have grown them on our farm, but their both very much Phillies at this point.  The same goes for Ibanez and Polanco, neither of whom was here for the ’08 title.

But Beltran?  Do we really want to win the World Series with him leading the way offensively, possibly hitting right in the heart of the order?  Well, the answer to that is YES.  We want the title, even if Beltran plays a key role.  But wouldn’t it be better to win it without him?  And wouldn’t it possibly be even better to keep a prized prospect like Jared Cosart or Jonathan Singleton so we can watch them grow up in years to come, like we have with Hamels and Utley?

I don’t have any conclusive stance here.  I just think this is a larger issue that we Phillie fans need to face as we join the ranks of the spoiled elites, like Yankees and Red Sox fans.  In the end, swinging a deal for Beltran is probably the right move, and I won’t be complaining a bit if and when he’s riding on one of the floats down Broad Street.

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Phillies Report Card #8

 

Maybe Mayberry is the right-handed bat the Phils are looking for

Record since Mid-Season Report Card: 8-4

Overall Record:  57-34 (3.5 games ahead of Atlanta)

The Phils ride into the All-Star Break on a high note, having won six consecutive series, including series against the Red Sox and Braves.  And they won a statement game on Sunday, romping to a 14-1 rout of the Braves, who have been making a strong push from second place for weeks.  It was the second 14-run output by the offense in the past few games, which is obviously encouraging, even if the consistency is still not there.  On to the grades….

Position Players:
Over the last 12 games, the team batting average is about .285, which is far higher than just about any 12 game stretch all season.  Most notable has been the production of the corner outfielders (we’ll count John Mayberry in that group even though he’s been playing center field).  Raul Ibanez, Dom Brown, and Mayberry combined to hit .324 (34/105) with 7 HR and 27 RBI.

Ibanez hit four of those homers, with a whopping 15 RBI, including a walk-off homer to beat Atlanta on Friday and 6 RBI in Sunday’s win.  He also added an amazing leaping catch at the wall in that win.  At least three times teams opted to walk Howard to get to him, and he repeatedly made them pay.  Mayberry showed that he is potentially the right-handed bat the team’s been missing, as he had six extra-base hits in 19 AB’s, including a two-homer game in Florida on Wednesday and three doubles vs. Atlanta on Sunday.  It looks like Dom Brown has changed his approach at the plate lately, and the results were positive, with a .366 average over these 12 games.  For a team that’s had no production from the corner outfielders all season, they suddenly find themselves with three good options, assuming these guys can keep it up.

Solid stretches were also turned in by Rollins (.314 avg, .386 OBP, 4 steals), Utley (.306, HR, 3 steals), and Howard (.280, 2 HR, 10 RBI).  Victorino was continuing a hot streak, hitting .450 (9-20) with five extra-base hits, before hitting the DL with a sprained thumb.  Even Michael Martinez got into the action, with four hits on Sunday.  He also made some nice defensive plays at both third base and center field in place of the injured starters.

On the negative side, it was really just the continued struggles of Polanco, leading up to his own trip to the DL with back pain.  Maybe the back pain is the reason he’s struggled.  Whether that’s a good thing or not, I don’t know.  Either way, Polanco had three hits in his last 27 AB’s before taking a seat.

Grade:  B+

Starting Pitchers:
Even without Oswalt:  12 starts, 8 of which can legitimately be called excellent.  Another one was Hamels’s injury-shortened outing when he left after four scoreless innings and was most likely heading for another gem.  Hamels went 8 innings in each of his next two starts, giving up 2 and 1 run, respectively, and picking up wins both times.

The Start of the Week goes to the other lefty, Lee, for his 2-hit shutout of the BoSox.  He took a really hard-luck no-decision against Atlanta on Saturday.  He gave up one run on three hits in 8 innings, and also hit a home run off Tommy Hanson.  But his homer was the only run the team could muster.  Lee struggled in his other start, when the Blue Jays ended his 34 inning scoreless streak by touching him for six runs.

Doc Halladay went the distance in his old stadium in Toronto, giving up three runs and getting the W.  He then took a no-decision, despite giving up just two runs in 7 innings against Atlanta.  Halladay continues to be the third best pitcher on this team over the last six weeks, yet he will start the All-Star game tomorrow night for the NL.  And he deserves it.  That’s how good this staff is.

The amazing season for Vance Worly continued with two dominating performances against Boston and Florida.  He went 7 innings in each start, giving up a combined 1 run on 7 hits over those 14 innings.  Kyle Kendrick has been far from bad, but he doesn’t look too good compared to these other guys.  He was hit for six runs by Toronto, then gave up just one run but was pulled after five innings against Florida.

All told, just another 12-game stretch where the starting rotation posts a combined 2.40 ERA, with 69 strikeouts against 15 walks.

Grade:  A

Bullpen:
The pen had a few rough outings, but they have to be graded on a curve right now, considering the current bullpen was much more likely to be the pen for the Iron Pigs this season than the Phillies.  Charlie has been left having to go with Andrew Carpenter to protect one-run leads.

Most noteworthy for the pen was the continued domination of Antonio Bastardo.  He allowed one base-runner (on a walk) in his five appearances, picking up three saves in the process.

The lasting memory right now of Michael Stutes may be the three runs he gave up in the 10th inning of Saturday’s loss, but that’s not really fair.  Especially for how inexperienced he is, he’s been carrying a really heavy workload lately, so it’s not at all surprising that he might not be at maximum effectiveness.  In his five appearances before Saturday, he gave up no runs and two hits in 4.2 innings.

Yet another reason baseball is an amazing sport:  on a pitching staff that features one lock Hall-of-Famer, another Cy Young winner, and another World Series MVP and two-time All-Star, it was some guy named Juan Perez that was the subject of the heading: Phillies Pitcher Makes History.  Perez came into Friday’s game against the Braves and struck out all three batters he faced, on 9 pitches.  He became just the 48th pitcher in major league history to do that, and the first Phillie in 20 years.

David Herndon and Andrew Carpenter had some struggles, giving up a combined 8 runs in 5 innings.

Grade:  B-

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