Here It Is…The BSB World Cup Preview (Round-Robin)

I’m sure that you’re all on the edges of your seats, waiting for the BSB World Cup Preview for its insight and analysis.  Well, here’s what you’re going to get.  You’re going to get some of the best soccer analysis you’ve ever heard that doesn’t include any player’s name, a single mention of team playing styles, let alone a look at any individual matchups.  What you’re going to get is someone who doesn’t really know much about the game, but does know a lot about sports and “tournament” formats and what-not.  So, armed with the FIFA team rankings and the tournament format, here is the official BSB World Cup Preview.  Ps…I know nothing about soccer, but I do LOVE this event.

Let’s go group by group:

Group A
France (9)
Uruguay (16)
Mexico (17)
South Africa (83)

This is, by far, the weakest group, so it’s a great opportunity for any of these teams to get through to the elimination round, even the host nation, South Africa, who is the second-worst team in the field.  The host nations always seem to perform well in the World Cup, so we can’t count out the homeboys, but in all honestly, they are a pretty big longshot to survive the round-robin, even in this lightweight group.  France caught a huge break, as the worst #1 seed, to be placed here, and should get through–probably winning the group.  Though the other spot is seemingly between two teams, their head-to-head matchup might not necessarily decide who moves on.  Though South Africa is probably not a contender to get out of the group, they can certainly rise up and beat (or draw) either Mexico or Uruguay, which would put a shot in their survival hopes.  And, on the other hand, France is the favorite to win the group, they are by no means dominant and could lose to either of those teams, which would really help their causes.  BSB is gonig out on a limb right off the bat here, as we are not picking France to win this group.  We are going to pick Uruguay to be a surprise winner here in Group A.  We are going to, reluctantly go with France to come out in the A2 position because the opening game for the host nation might be the one their are most up for and that is against Mexico, so if South Africa can beat or draw with the Mexicans, then the French (who will beat South Africa) should only need a draw with the Mexicans to move on.

Group B
Argentina (7)
Greece (13)
Nigeria (21)
South Korea (43)

I think this is a really tough group, and I like both survivors from this group to beat the Group A qualifiers in the first round of the elimination round, so we expect two of these four to reach the quarterfinals.  The question is now:  which two?  Argentina is tricky because it could really go either way–they could be REALLY good, potentially even win the whole thing, or REALLY bad, and not get out of this group.  Greece has been really good in the past decade or so and comes in with another good squad, and Nigeria is one of the better African teams, which should be getting a nice push from playing in their home continent.  South Korea is a decent squad, but has very long odds to even make it interesting in Group B.  BSB is going to pick Argentina to put it together and win the group, led by the best player in the world, Lionel Messi (I guess I broke my promise).  The other pick may be the hardest of the entire first round.  We’ve gone back and forth on this decision, but in the end, we are going with our hearts and the home fans and taking Nigeria to finish second and get to the elimination round (sorry, Alexi).

Group C
England (8)
United States (14)
Slovenia (25)
Algeria (30)

The US got a nice, cushy #1 seed (England) in their group, so that’s good.  They also avoided any traditional powers in the European/South American slot.  And, they didn’t get one of the most experienced and successful African nations, like Cote d’Ivoire or Nigeria.  However, that does not mean that this is going to be easy.  Slovenia and Algeria are both solid teams that probably are more than just the ole “happy to be there” mentality.  The first game is going to be huge for the Americans.  As I laid out in my USA-England post of a couple days ago, as important as it is to get through this group, it may be that much more important to win it because of how the next round sets up.  BSB is going to take the United States to survive the group, including a draw against England.  But, we believe they will also have a disappointing draw aganist either Slovenia or Algeria, while the Brits will beat them both, giving England the Group C title.

Group D
Germany (6)
Serbia (15)
Australia (20)
Ghana (32)

This wide-open group became even more so with a rash of German injuries, including one to their star midfielder, Michael Ballack.  Now, this group might be the most hotly contested group of all.  They have a hobbling superpower (Germany), a rising European (Serbia), an interesting up-and-comer knocking on the door of the world’s elite (Australia), and one of the most experienced, successful African nations (Ghana).  For the record, back in 2006, I said that Ghana would at least make the semifinals of the 2010 World Cup.  They haven’t exactly been great in the past four years, but they can still make some noise and, with a little luck, might even make me a sage.  In a tough, tough choice, BSB is still taking Germany to win this group, and in defense of my prediction and the greatest continent, we will take Ghana to come out of this group.  The elimination picks of Serbia and Australia weren’t easy, but my head won’t let me go against the Germans, and my heart won’t let me go against the Ghanaians.

Group E
Nethlerlands (4)
Cameroon (19)
Denmark (36)
Japan (45)

At first blush, I looked at this group and thought about blowing it up.  For some reason, I think the Dutch may be pretty vulnerable here.  Cameroon, playing on their home continent, and Denmark, who always seem to rise to the World Cup occasion, are tempting picks.  And, the Japanese are always feisty.  However, in the end, we definitely don’t think Japan has enough to get through.  In fact, BSB is predicting an 0-3 finish for the Japanese.  And, then with further examination, it gets harder and harder to pick against the Dutch–though their match with the Danes should be one of the more heated rivalries that no one will be talking about.  We, here at BSB, actually think that the Dutch will take out the Danes in this rivalry, and it might actually affect Denmark in their other matches, particularly the one with Cameroon.  With the Netherlands winning this group, we are going with Cameroon to beat the Danes in the final game of the group to get into the second spot.

Group F
Italy (5)
Paraguay (31)
Slovakia (34)
New Zealand (78)

In probably the easiest road for a top-seed, the defending champs get a bit of a break.  However, they can’t take anything for granted, as Slovakia and Paraguay can both produce surprises.  New Zealand actually might be that ole “happy to be there” team.  Italy to win this group is probably the easiest pick of the entire first round, but this second spot is tough.  BSB is going to go with Paraguay to take the second spot because teams playing in their own hemisphere always seem to do better than teams from the other hemisphere.

Group G
Brazil (1)
Portugal (3)
Cote d’Ivoire (27)
North Korea (105)

And, here is it, folks, the proverbial “Group of Death,” and this one is a doozy.  I’m convinced that the third best team in this group is better than any other group’s second-best team.  And, it couldn’t have made me more upset by it.  Cote d’Ivoire absolutely has a team good enough to make a deep, deep run in this year’s World Cup.  And, there would be nothing that makes this guy happier than watching an African nation make a run at the title on African soil.  But, as of a couple days ago, we’re not even picking it to happen here at BSB.  Didier Drogba is one of the top five players in the world–and he’s Ivoirian.  And, he’s also hurt.  That was a huge blow for a team that has to beat out one of the top three teams in the world just to make the elimination round.  With Drogba, we were picking the Ivoirians to WIN this group over even the mightly Brazil.  But, without Drogba, Brazil will win this group, and Portugal will probably finish second, though I am incredibly excited for Portugal-Brazil and Portugal-Cote d’Ivoire.  Oh, by the way, North Korea probably shouldn’t even show up…

Group H
Spain (2)
Chile (18)
Switzerland (24)
Honduras (38)

We are going to delve into the elimination round in an other post sometime soon, but let’s just say that the fortune that Spain got with a relatively easy group is completely washed away by the misfortune they got with their elimination draws.  But, for now, let’s focus on getting through the group as the winner because, if not, they might be staring at the only team in the world ranked higher than them in the FIRST ROUND of the elimination round.  Fortunately, for the world’s #2, they have a draw that shouldn’t give them a ton of trouble.  There an interesting South American country, Chile, an interesting Central American country, Honduras, and an interesting European country, Switzerland.  This is the only group that has four teams from the two major soccer continents.  In fact, no other group even has THREE teams from Europe or South America.  Outside of Spain, who will win this group rather easily, it should be really interesting and exciting as to who is going to win the chance to get hammered by Brazil.  We, at BSB, think that the second spot from this group will be decided on the very first day of this group, when Chile plays Honduras.  We struggled and wanted to pick Honduras, but in the end, we feel like the Chileans have the best chance of going 1-0-1 in the round-robin between them, Honduras, and Switzerland.  So, we are going with Chile to win the right to be cannon fodder for the Brazilians in the start of the elimination round.

Recap (Elimination Round Matchups)
A1 Uruguay – B2 Nigeria
B1 Argentina – A2 France
C1 England – D2 Ghana
D1 Germany – C2 United States
E1 Netherlands – F2 Paraguay
F1 Italy – E2 Cameroon
G1 Brazil – H2 Chile
H1 Spain – G2 Portugal

Elimination round predictions…soon.