Okay, well here are the scenarios (as I can best figure them) for qualification from each group. The groups will be updated after the completion of the each team’s second games. (We are operating under the assumption that no team will score more than 4 goals in a game.)
Group A
- If Uruguay and Mexico draw: A1-Uruguay and A2-Mexico
- If Uruguay beats Mexico: A1-Uruguay and
- A2-France: IF they beat South Africa and make up 4 goals on Mexico
- A2-South Africa: IF they beat France and make up 5 goals on Mexico
- A2-Mexico: IF the France-South Africa winner does not make up goal differential
- If Mexico beats Uruguay: A1-Mexico and
- A2-France: IF they beat South Africa and make up 5 goals on Uruguay
- A2-South Africa: IF they beat France and make up 6 goals on Uruguay
- A2-Uruguay: IF France-South Africa winner does not make up goal differential
Group B
- Argentina CLINCHES B1
- Assuming that no team scores more than 4 goals in a game
- If Argentina beats Greece:
- B2-South Korea: IF they win or draw against Nigeria
- B2-Nigeria: IF they beat South Korea by more than 1 goal OR they beat South Korea by 1 goal and score at least 2 goals more than Greece
- B2-Greece: IF Nigeria beats South Korea by 1 goal, but does not score 2 more goals than Greece
- If Argentina and Greece draw:
- Nigeria is ELIMINATED
- B2-Greece: IF South Korea loses to Nigeria OR South Korea draws with Nigeria and scores at least 2 goals fewer than Greece
- B2-South Korea: IF they beat Nigeria OR they draw with Nigeria and score the same as or more goals than Greece
- If Greece beats Argentina:
- Nigeria is ELIMINATED
- B2-South Korea: IF they beat Nigeria by the same margin or more than Greece beats Argentina
- B2-Greece: IF South Korea loses or draws with Nigeria OR South Korea beats Nigeria but not by as many as Greece beats Argentina
Group C
- If Slovenia beats England: C1-Slovenia and
- England is ELMINATED
- C2-United States: IF they win or draw with Algeria
- C2-Algeria: IF they beat the United States
- If England beats Slovenia:
- C1-England and C2-United States: IF United States beats Algeria AND England wins by a wider margin than the United States
- C1-United States and C2-England: IF United States beats Algeria AND wins by at least the same margin as England
- C1-England and C2-Slovenia: IF United States and Algeria draw OR Algeria beats the United States by only 1 goal AND Slovenia loses by only 1 goal AND Algeria does not score at least 4 goals more than Slovenia
- C1-England and C2-Algeria: IF Algeria beats the United States by more than 1 goal OR Algeria beats the United States by 1 goal and England beats Slovenia by more than 1 goal OR Algeria wins by only 4-3 and Slovenia loses 1-0
- If England and Slovenia draw:
- C1-Slovenia and C2-Algeria: IF Algeria beats the United States
- C1-Slovenia and C2-England: IF United States and Algeria draw AND England outscores the United States by at least 3 goals
- C1-Slovenia and C2-United States: IF United States and Algeria draw AND England does not outscore the United States by at least 3 goals OR United States beats Algeria by at least 2 goals OR United States beats Algeria by 1 goal and scores fewer goals than Slovenia
- C1-United States and C2-Slovenia: IF United States beats Algeria by more than 1 goal OR United States beats Algeria by 1 goal and scores more goals than Slovenia
Group D
- If Ghana beats Germany: D1-Ghana and
- Germany is ELIMINATED
- D2-Serbia: IF they win or draw against Australia
- D2-Australia: IF they beat Serbia
- If Germany beats Ghana: D1-Germany
- Australia is ELIMINATED
- D2-Serbia: IF they beat Australia
- D2-Ghana: IF Australia wins or draws against Serbia
- If Germany and Ghana draw:
- Australia is ELIMINATED
- D1-Ghana and D2-Germany: IF Australia wins or draws against Serbia
- D1-Serbia and D2-Ghana: IF Serbia beats Australia
Group E
- Cameroon is ELIMINATED
- If Netherlands wins or draws Cameroon: E1-Netherlands and
- E2-Japan: IF they win or draw against Denmark
- E2-Denmark: IF they beat Japan
- If Cameroon beats Netherlands:
- E1-Japan and E2-Netherlands: IF Japan beats Denmark AND makes up 3 goals on Netherlands
- E1-Netherlands and E2-Japan: IF Japan draws with Denmark OR Japan beats Denmark but does not make up goal differential
- E1-Denmark and E2-Netherlands: IF Denmark beats Japan and makes up 4 goals on Netherlands
- E1-Netherlands and E2-Denmark: IF Denmark beats Japan and does not make up goal differential
Group F
- If Paraguay beats New Zealand: F1-Paraguay and
- F2-Italy: IF they win or draw against Slovakia
- F2-Slovakia: IF they beat Italy
- If Paraguay and New Zealand draw:
- F1-Italy and F2-Paraguay: IF Italy beats Slovakia
- F1-Paraguay and F2-Italy: IF Italy and Slovakia draw AND Italy outscores New Zealand
- F1-Paraguay and F2-New Zealand: IF Italy and Slovakia draw AND New Zealand outscores Italy
- F1-Slovakia and F2-Paraguay: IF Slovakia beats Italy AND makes up 2 goals on Paraguay
- F1-Paraguay and F2-Slovakia: IF Slovakia beats Italy AND does not make up goal differential
- If New Zealand beats Paraguay:
- F1-New Zealand and F2-Paraguay: IF Italy and Slovakia draw
- F1-Italy and F2-New Zealand: IF Italy beats Slovakia AND wins by more than New Zealand
- F1-New Zealand and F2-Italy: IF Italy beats Slovakia AND wins by fewer than New Zealand
- F1-New Zealand and F2-Slovakia: IF Slovakia beats Italy AND makes up 4 goals on Paraguay
- F1-New Zealand and F2-Paraguay: IF Slovakia beats Italy AND does not make up goal differential
Group G
- North Korea is ELIMINATED
- Cote d’Ivoire is ELIMINATED
- Again, this is working under the assumption that they cannot make up a 9-goal differential with Portugal. But, as we saw with the Portugese, the North Koreans can be scored upon almost at will, so this is the one case where that assumption may be a bit zealous.
- If Brazil wins or draws with Portugal: G1-Brazil and G2-Portugal
- If Portugal beats Brazil: G1-Portugal and G2-Brazil
Group H
- If Chile beats Spain: H1-Chile and
- H2-Switzerland: IF they win or draw against Honduras OR they lose to Honduras by fewer than 4 goals and make up 2 goals on Spain
- H2-Honduras: IF they beat Switzerland and make up 4 goals on Spain
- H2-Spain: IF Honduras beats Switzerland but does not make up goal differential AND Switzerland does not make up goal differential
- If Chile and Spain draw: H1-Chile
- Honduras is ELIMINATED
- H2-Spain: IF Honduras wins or draws against Switzerland
- H2-Switzerland: IF they beat Honduras
- If Spain beats Chile:
- Honduras is ELIMINATED
- H1-Switzerland and H2-Spain: IF Switzerland beats Honduras AND makes up 3 goals on Chile AND 2 goals on Spain
- H1-Spain and H2-Switzerland: IF Switzerland beats Honduras AND makes up 3 goals on Chile but does not make up goal differential on Spain
- H1-Spain and H2-Chile: IF Honduras wins or draws against Switzerland OR Switzerland beats Honduras but fails to make up goal differential on Chile or Spain
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