Another great year in the Big West sets up a very interesting 8-team tournament.  With typical doormat, UC-Davis sitting it out, the quarterfinals will start Thursday and then reseed for Friday (which could create some quick turnarounds to play the next day).  It was a great battle for the top spot between UC-Irvine and UCSB, which was won by the Anteaters.  Hawaii and Long Beach are both potent teams that can win three straight here in Anaheim.  Cal Poly was picked 2nd in the preseason, but slipped to 7th, and Fullerton is always dangerous.  And, with this conference ranking #1 among all 32 D-I conference in “close game.”  More than 30% of all Big West games were decided by less than 4 points or in overtime.

There is no majority in championship pick here, but 11 people did take the top-seeded Anteaters.  9 others took #2 UCSB, while 4 pegged Long Beach, and 1 person took Hawaii.  Cal Poly and CS-Fullerton were picked out as potential sleepers by a couple people.  Alexi is coming off perfection in 2013.  Bry has been perfect twice in the Big West and is the only one to win this conference multiple times.

CHAMPIONSHIP (March 15th – 30 points)

#5 CS-Northridge vs #7 Cal Poly
Just when it looked like there wasn’t going to be one, we get the Big West.  Every year, there is a conference (usually a low-major one) whose bracket just completely BLOWS UP. But, there hadn’t been one…until now.  And, we can blame Cal Poly, mostly, whose slow-down, muck-it-up style took out the 2-seed UCSB in the quarters and the 1-seed UC-Irvine in the semis.  CSN, who also pulled off a pair of upsets to get here (#4 Hawaii in the quarters and #3 Long Beach in the semis), may not have even brought their white jerseys to Anaheim, but they’ll be wearing them Saturday.  The winner here can probably just stay packed and book a flight to Dayton, OH.  (By the way, having followed the Big West a little bit all year, I can say it’s kind of disappointing that the conference title will be decided with a game between these two.  CSN was totally nondescript, and Cal Poly was tantalizingly talented, but just so bad offensively all year.  But, I guess that’s how it always is in these one-bid league that have tournament upsets.)

As for the CTC, only 8 people even had CSN winning in the quarters, let alone the finals.  And, there were only 2 people who even took Cal Poly ONCE in this tournament.  So, clearly, no one had either of these teams winning this tournament.  Bry, who is the current leader, has clinched the 2014 Big West title.

SEMIFINALS (March 14th – 20 points each)

#3 Long Beach State vs #5 CS-Northridge
Because of the reseeding of an every-day tournament, CS-Northridge has to turn around and play the early game after an overtime game took them late in to the Orange County nighttime.  They did hold on to beat a good Hawaii team, so that should give them some confidence as they take on a Long Beach team that handled a solid CS-Fullerton team without much trouble.

Caleb is the only one with CS-Northridge taking this one.  7 people (Bry, Colton, GrossSr, Lazarow, Lynch, PapaCim, Scoot) have Long Beach making the finals, with GrossSr, Lynch, PapaCim, and Scoot taking the 49ers to win it all.

CS-Northridge 82 – Long Beach State 77

#1 UC-Irvine vs #7 Cal Poly
Is Cal Poly finally living up to their potential?  It only took them, well, all season.  They held one of the tournament favorites, UCSB, to 38 points in an impressive 31-point dismantling on Thursday.  Now, they get the actual tournament favorite, UCI, how hammered Riverside in the quarters.

22 people have UC-Irvine going to the finals, including 11 (Bry, Chris, Colton, Dave, Doogan, Gersh, GrossJr, Lazarow, Primm, Stri, Stritts) who have the Anteaters winning this tournament.  The only 3 that don’t have UCI are Caleb, GrossSr, and WaTers.

Cal Poly 61 – UC-Irvine 58

QUARTERFINALS (March 13th – 10 points each)

#2 UC-Santa Barbara vs #7 Cal Poly
If you have never seen a Big West game, do yourself a favor and watch one that has UCSB.  There is a guy named Alan Williams, who is absolutely worth the price of that extra cable package.  UCSB is definitely on par with top-seeded Irvine, but this opening round opponent is dangerous.  Cal Poly, who was picked 2nd in the preseason, faded down the stretch and slipped to 7th, but they are not the team UCSB wanted to see.

Bry and Lazarow are the only two that took a nice shot at Cal Poly here.  9 people (Alexi, Caleb, J, Lohse, Mac, RDoc, Stumpf, Teddy, WaTers) risk their champion in this game with the Gouchos.

Cal Poly 69 – UC-Santa Barbara 38

#3 Long Beach State vs #6 CS-Fullerton
God, I miss Casper Ware.  If you weren’t with us in the CTC a couple years ago, I was completely smitten with that Long Beach team with Ware, Larry Anderson, and T.J. Robinson that dominated the Big West and built for four years to finally make the tournament, they got a 12-seed and then Anderson broke his leg and they lost to New Mexico.  This Long Beach team isn’t nearly as talented, but they bring just about everyone back, including Mike Caffey, so next year they should be the favorite to win next year’s Big West.  As for now, the 49ers have this year to worry about, and CS-Fullerton is dangerous.

7 people (Becks, Dave, Doogan, J, Lohse, Teddy, WaTers) went with the decent upset pick of Fullerton here.  Teddy and WaTers have the Titans going to the finals.  GrossSr, Lynch, PapaCim, and Scoot all have the 49ers cutting down the nets on Saturday.

Long Beach State 66 – CS-Fullerton 56

#1 UC-Irvine vs #8 UC-Riverside
The Anteaters of UC-Irvine were set up for this season, but unlike so many others that build towards a season, they actually followed through and are the best team in a good league.  They won a tough league with solid, consistent play from a team that is pretty deep and gigantic (3rd biggest effective height in the nation, which is helped slightly by their 7’6″ freshman).  They open with UC-Riverside, who isn’t very good.

All 25 people took the Anteaters in this one, including 20 of them that have them winning again in the semis.  11 people picked UCI as their champions here.

UC-Irvine 63 – UC-Riverside 43

#4 Hawaii vs #5 CS-Northridge
It is always tough for the Rainbows when they come to the mainland, but this Hawaii team is really solid (and beloved by the tempo-free people).  Northridge had a surprising year, including a season-ending win at Long Beach, and the Matadors do have a shot to make some noise here.

7 people (Caleb, Colton, PapaCim, RDoc, Scoot, Stritts, Stumpf) took the Matadors in the mild upset here, including Caleb, who has them going to the finals.  Becks has the most to lose in this game, as he has Hawaii winning this tournament.  Dave and GrossSr also have the Rainbows in the finals.

CS-Northridge 87 – Hawaii 84 (OT)

CTC UPDATE

Championship Picks

• #1 UC-Irvine (11)
• #2 UC-Santa Barbara (9) – Alexi, Caleb, J, Lohse, Mac, RDoc, Stumpf, Teddy, WaTers
• #3 Long Beach State (4) – GrossSr, Lynch, PapaCim, Scoot
• #4 Hawaii (1) – Becks

Biggest Upsets

• QF – #7 Cal Poly (Bry, Lazarow)
• SF – #6 CS-Fullerton (Teddy, WaTers)

Previous CTC Champions

• 2008 – Doogan
• 2009 – Bry (perfect)
• 2010 – Stri
• 2011 – J
• 2012 – Bry, Mac (perfect)
• 2013 – Alexi (perfect)

2014 Scores

Just one day after Teddy’s all-time single day record was threatened, he decided he needed some extra wiggle room on that record, so he blows up for 853 points – the first guy to ever top 800 on a single day, and he blew it away.  Teddy was 99 points better than anyone else on the day and has put himself from an also-ran to having an outside shot at the overall title.  Lohse finished with the lowest score for the second day in a row (the two biggest days of the competition) and has slipped to last place.

The Second Friday is always Moving Day in the CTC, and this year was no excepttion.  Aside from Teddy, who picked up 10 spots and is currently 12th, Chris and GrossJr each picked up 6 spots to sit at 5th and 6th overall.  Doogan jumped 5 spots, and Stritts picked up 4 spots to 3rd overall (and 2nd in the money division).  Mac still holds a pretty significant lead in the overall standings, with J (who is leading the money division) remaining in 2nd place.

The biggest fall on the day belongs to Caleb, who slipped from top 5 to 14th place.  PapaCim came crashing back after his HUGE Day Eleven.  He gave back 7 of the 12 spots he gained just a day earlier.  Becks lost 5 spots, falling to 20th.  Alexi, who was in serious contention, had a rough day, dropping 4 spots to 7th.  Lohse also dropped 4 spots to bottom.  Stumpf lost 3 places on the leaderboard.

Again, no titles were handed out on Friday, but there are a boatload of them coming due on Saturday.  Two dozen games line the Saturday slate, including the America East having their championship game a whole week after the rest of their tournament.

DAY TWELVE SCORES:

1. Teddy – 853
2. Chris – 754
3. GrossJr – 746
4. Stritts – 739
5. Doogan – 713
6. Stri – 707
7. Gersh – 685
8. Lynch – 677
9. Mac – 669
10. Dave – 663
11. Bry – 651
12. J – 637
13. GrossSr – 628
14. Scoot – 628
15. Lazarow – 624
16. RDoc – 604
17. Stumpf – 601
18. Colton – 600
19. PapaCim – 598
20. Primm – 593
21. Alexi – 592
22. Becks – 557
23. WaTers – 555
24. Caleb – 551
25. Lohse – 470

OVERALL STANDINGS:

1. Mac – 2540.5
2. *J – 2467
3. *Stritts – 2451.5
4. Stri – 2428.5
5. *Chris – 2419.5
6. *GrossJr – 2390.5
7. Alexi – 2362
8. *Gersh – 2362
9. Dave – 2356.5
10. *Bry – 2354.5
11. PapaCim – 2344
12. Teddy – 2331
13. *Doogan – 2294.5
14. Caleb – 2294.5
15. *RDoc – 2217.5
16. *GrossSr – 2215
17. *Stumpf – 2212
18. Colton – 2184.5
19. Scoot – 2180.5
20. *Becks – 2157
21. *Primm – 2133
22. Lynch – 2105.5
23. Lazarow – 2051.5
24. WaTers – 1980
25. Lohse – 1950

When you have 61 games – most of them in major conferences – you are bound to have an incredibly volatile day.  And, that was just the case – almost to an extreme – here on Day Eleven.  The whole leaderboard saw a gigantic shakeup…except for up top, where Mac remains our leader and was, at one point in the day, over 200 points clear of 2nd place.  But, the night games weren’t kind of him, and he came back to the pack a bit.

PapaCim wins a big day with a HUGE performance.  Teddy set the all-time CTC points record for a single day in 2013.  PapaCim was just 8.5 points shy of that record.  But, Teddy’s 792.5 last year came on the Second Friday of the competition.  The Second Thursday last year was won by Dave with just 598 points.  That stands to reason that Teddy’s all-time record might be crushed today. 

Anyway, PapaCim’s historic performance vaulted him up from – get this – FIFTEEN SPOTS on the leaderboard.  He started the day in 19th place, he ended it in 4th.  That is completely unprecedented.  But, he wasn’t the only one who took advantage of a very volatile day.  Caleb jumped 8 spots into the top 5.  Gersh grabbed 8 spots to reented the top 10.  GrossSr also picked up 8 spots from 24th to 16th.  GrossJr gained 5 spots to 12th.  J also gained 5 spots, but it wasn’t necessarily the gains on the leaderboard for J, it is the fact that he has put himself in serious contention here to challenge Mac for the overall title.  Stri and Scoot picked up 3 spots each.

Day Eleven was a total disaster for a couple people who were in serious contention.  Nothing went right all day for Colton, who dropped an unprecedented FIFTEEN SPOTS from 2nd place overall to a distant 17th.  Doogan also may have dropped out of contention, falling 12 spots from 6th to 18th.  RDoc had a rough day, as well, falling from the top 5 all the way down to 13th.  Lohse, who had the lowest score on the day (over 300 points fewer than PapaCim), feel 6 spots to 21st.  WaTers, who was just ahead on Lohse on the day fell 5 spots to the basement of the standings.  Primm, Stritts, and Becks all lost ground, as well.

61 games and none of them were championships, so no conference crowns were awarded.

Friday is, historically, the biggest day of the whole competition.  So many games (44 to be exact) that are late into big conferences that the points will fly around fast and furiously.  Anything can happen on the Second Friday, and it usually goes a long way to deciding who is actually a contender entering championship weekend.

Here is the slate for Friday:

• Big Ten quarterfinals (4)
• ACC quarterfinals (4)
• SEC quarterfinals (4)
• Atlantic Ten quarterfinals (4)
• Sun Belt quarterfinals (2)
• Big XII semifinals (2)
• Big East semifinals (2)
• Pac-12 semifinals (2)
• American semifinals (2)
• Mountain West semifinals (2)
• Conference USA semifinals (2)
• MAC semifinals (2)
• Big West semifinals (2)
• Southland semifinals (2)
• Big Sky semifinals (2)
• WAC semifinals (2)
• MEAC semifinals (2)
• SWAC semifinals (2)

DAY ELEVEN SCORES:

1. PapaCim – 784
2. J – 757
3. GrossSr – 727
4. Caleb – 719
5. Mac – 711
6. Alexi – 687
7. Gersh – 687
8. Stri – 657
9. GrossJr – 651
10. Dave – 644
11. Scoot – 637
12. Bry – 636
13. Stritts – 631
14. Lazarow – 618
15. Chris – 608
16. Stumpf – 598
17. Becks – 561
18. Teddy – 555
19. Primm – 537
20. RDoc – 536
21. Lynch – 530
22. Doogan – 507
23. WaTers – 479
24. Colton – 478
25. Lohse – 472

OVERALL STANDINGS:

1. Mac – 1871.5
2. *J – 1830
3. Alexi – 1770
4. PapaCim – 1746
5. Caleb – 1743.5
6. Stri – 1721.5
7. *Stritts – 1712.5
8. *Bry – 1703.5
9. Dave – 1693.5
10. *Gersh – 1677
11. *Chris – 1665.5
12. *GrossJr – 1644.5
13. *RDoc – 1613.5
14. *Stumpf – 1611
15. *Becks – 1600
16. *GrossSr – 1587
17. Colton – 1584.5
18. *Doogan – 1581.5
19. Scoot – 1552.5
20. *Primm – 1540
21. Lohse – 1480
22. Teddy – 1478
23. Lynch – 1428.5
24. Lazarow – 1427.5
25. WaTers – 1425

Stumpf is the only one to break 200 on a busy Wednesday.  Alexi and J also have big days, and while it’s still early, it’s just late enough to think about the overall title, and Mac took a big step towards a possibly securing a second overall championship as he holds 54-point lead over Colton in 2nd place and 77.5 over Alexi, who jumped into 3rd place.  Stritts maintains his 4th place spot (and takes the top spot in the Money Division).  RDoc (second in the Money Division) slides into the Top 5.  Bry and Stri both drop out of the Top 5, but remain within the arbitrary 100 points behind the leader of which there are only 9 now.

Alexi and J both made the biggest climbs up the standings on the day, each gaining 7 spots on the leaderboard.  Our day’s winner, Stumpf, picked up 5 spots, while RDoc vaulted 3 spots into the Top Five.

Primm took the biggest fall on the day, as he lost 7 spots from 9th to 16th.  Bry dropped 5 spots to 8th; Stri slipped 4 spots to 9th; and Chris dropped 3 spots to 10th.  Gersh lost 3 more spots Wednesday, as he has fallen from 2nd to 18th in a matter of 3 days.

There was only one CTC conference championship handed out on Wednesday, and it went to RDoc, whose excellent American pick won him the Patriot League (a win he must be proud of as a man who respects quality mid-major basketball and knows there are few leagues that play a better brand of basketball – albeit without the athletes sometimes – than the Patriot).

And, now…on to Thursday.  I have said many times since doing this that as great as the first two days of the tournament are (and, they are GREAT), there is something to be said for these two days possibly being as good, if not better, than those two days – it’s just that this week doesn’t quite get the noteriety.  There are 61 games today – SIXTY-ONE – that is only a couple shy of the ENTIRE NCAA Tournament.  There are only 16 next Thursday.  And, all 61 games played today lead to games of tomorrow, as there will be nearly 40 games tomorrow, and no one has any idea what teams will be playing in them.  What a freaking day!  WOW!

Anyway, here is the ridiculous slate of games for Thursday, March 13th (* indicates first day of the tournament):

• Big XII quarterfinals (4)
• American quarterfinals (4)
• Big East quarterfinals (4)
• Pac-12 quarterfinals (4)
• Mountain West quarterfinals (4)
• Conference USA quarterfinals (4)
• *Big West quarterfinals (4)
• *WAC quarterfinals (4)
• *Big Sky quarterfinals (3)
• MAC quarterfinals (2)
• Southland quarterfinals (2)
• MEAC quarterfinals (2)
• SWAC quarterfinals (2)
• ACC second round (4)
• SEC second round (4)
• Atlantic Ten second round (4)
• *Big Ten opening round (4)
• *Sun Belt opening round (2)

DAY TEN SCORES:

1. Stumpf – 203
2. Alexi – 199
3. J – 199
4. Mac – 192
5. RDoc – 190
6. Dave – 171
7. Lohse – 163
8. Lynch – 160
9. GrossJr – 161
10. Becks – 155
11. Doogan – 147
12. Caleb -143
13. WaTers – 140
14. Stritts – 138
15. Scoot – 136
16. Gersh – 133
17. Chris – 131
18. Lazarow – 131
19. Stri – 131
20. Bry – 122
21. Teddy – 119
22. PapaCim – 117
23. Primm – 116
24. GrossSr – 115

OVERALL STANDINGS:

1. Mac – 1160.5
2. Colton – 1106.5
3. Alexi – 1083.5
4. *Stritts – 1081.5
5. *RDoc – 1077.5
6. *Doogan – 1074.5
7. *J – 1073
8. *Bry – 1067.5
9. Stri – 1064.5
10. *Chris – 1057.5
11. Dave – 1049.5
12. *Becks – 1039
13. Caleb – 1024.5
14. *Stumpf – 1013
15. Lohse – 1008
16. *Primm – 1003
17. *GrossJr – 999.5
18. Gersh – 990
19. PapaCim – 962
20. WaTers – 946
21. Teddy – 923
22. Scoot – 913.5
23. Lynch – 898.5
24. *GrossSr – 860
25. Lazarow – 809.5

One of the oldest, most stable leagues in the country joined the expansion train this year, when the old-school Patriot League added two new members.  But, as usual, the PL acted prudently, as they didn’t just grab whoever was out there.  They selected two like-minded schools with excellent, stable programs – Boston U and Loyola (Md).  In fact, both schools came in expecting to compete right away, with the BU Terriers picked to win the league in the regular season.  BU lived up to the hype and beat out an out-of-nowhere American team for the league title, but Loyola took their lumps in conference play.  The real beauty of this year’s PL race, however, was that there were no real also-rans.  9th-place Lafayette is talented and playing some good ball, so this tournament is really a wide open affair.  4th-seeded Bucknell may be the hottest team in the league, entering the tournament on a 6-game winning streak.  And, with this surprising amount of depth for a league of so few resources, that even the first round should give us some solid and interesting hoops.  Great way to kick off the best three weeks on the sporting calendar.

The CTC sees this league as wide open, too, as each of the top 4 seeds have at least 3 people picking them to cut down the nets.  #1 BU is the most supported with 11 of the 25.  Lynch and Teddy went all-in on #7 Colgate, taking them to win 3 games before losing in the finals.  While the league is bigger this year, it still might demonstrate a small margin for error, as each of the last 3 years at least one person went perfect in the PL.  The incredible stat of the day is that GrossJr has only missed one PL game in the 3 years he has competed in the CTC.

CHAMPIONSHIP (March 12th – 24 points)

#1 Boston U. vs #2 American
It seems like forever ago that this conference was playing its tournament, but it finishes up on Wednesday with their championship up in Boston.  A conference that is seemingly always won by the higher seeds has another 1/2 championship game.  These were the two best teams all year, start to finish, so fittingly the conference champion will be decided on the court between these two.  BU erupted in the second half to beat Army in a semifinal game that was closer than the final score indicated.  American won a really tight back-and-forth semifinal against Holy Cross, setting up this mammoth showdown.

7 people (Alexi, Dave, Grossjr, J, Mac, RDoc, Stumpf) have American taking this title.  11 people (Bry, Chris, Doogan, Gersh, GrossSr, Lohse, PapaCim, Primm, Scoot, Stri, Stritts) have BU here.  The 7 others are definitely going to lose ground to the winners here.  If BU wins, Primm and Stri will split the 2014 Patriot League title.  If American wins, RDoc will take the win outright.

American 55 – Boston U 36
First of all, what the hell is going on with #1 seeds and, even more so, #1 seeds at home, during these conference tournaments.  It is uncanny how many top seeds are getting beaten in these one-bid leagues, which kind of sucks because then the best teams in these leagues are playing in the NIT, not the NCAA tournament.  In fact, the NIT is getting rather full with these auto-bids for regular season champs that don’t win their tournament.  Anyway, let’s focus on the positive here and give a TON of credit to Mike Brennan who has now led a team that was picked 9th in a 10-team conference to the Big Dance in his first year.  Defense travels, so whichever 1- or 2-seed that draws the Eagles better come prepared for a war.  I don’t think they’ll pull off an upset, but they are gonna make us overreact about how bad _____ looked in the first round.

Congrats to RDoc, who, as a real connoisseur of good small-school hoops, probably takes a lot of pride in winning in a great league like the Patriot.  Alexi, Dave, GrossJr, J, Mac, and Stumpf also won this game and picked up a nice 32 points.

SEMIFINALS (March 8th – 16 points each)

#1 Boston U. vs #5 Army
Army came from behind for a miracle win at Bucknell on Wednesday to keep going one of their best seasons in decades.  They are now two wins from representing the Nation in the National Tournament.  Bucknell was tough, but BU is another step up.  The Terriers pounded Lafayette on Wednesday and are the clear favorites to win their very first Patriot League tournament.

No one has Army winning this game, but an amazing 11 people (Alexi, Becks, Caleb, Dave, GrossJr, J, Lazarow, Lynch, Mac, Teddy, WaTers) had Bucknell winning this game and are now just hoping that Army wins to zero it out for everyone.  11 others (Bry, Chris, Doogan, Gersh, GrossSr, Lohse, PapaCim, Primm. Scoot, Stri, Stritts) have BU winning this game and going on to win this tournament.

Boston U. 91 – Army 70

#2 American vs #3 Holy Cross
Both team had solid, hard-fought wins in the quarterfinals on Wednesday.  HC knocked off a game Lehigh team, while American shut down Colgate.  Now, these two meet up in what should be an outstanding semifinal.  Holy Cross is playing as well as anyone in the league and would probably be favored right now if it were on a neutral court.  But, it is not.  American – who wasn’t expected to be competitive yet – started the conference season with 11 straight wins.  They ended up losing out the regular season title to BU by a game, but as the #2-seed, they earned this game at home.

This is a pretty big CTC game here in the Patriot.  23 of the 25 people have a horse in the race here (Lynch and Teddy are out with Colgate).  9 (Becks, Bry, Chris, Colton, Doogan, Gersh, Lohse, Stritts, WaTers) have Holy Cross, while the other 14 have American.  Becks, Colton, and WaTers put their PL champs on the line here with Holy Cross, while 7 people (Alexi, Dave, GrossJr, J, Mac, RDoc, Stumpf) risk the champ with American.

American 57 – Holy Cross 46

QUARTERFINALS (March 5th – 8 points each)

#1 Boston U. vs #9 Lafayette
The BU Terriers walked into the Patriot League this year and won the league, and it was no shock, as they are loaded this year.  They are experienced, disciplined, and talented.  And, now they will start their quest to win the PL’s auto-bid.  Their first test is a home quarterfinal against a scary Lafayette team that went into Loyola on Monday night and ended the Greyhounds inaugural Patriot League season.  They will try and end another newcomer’s first season in the league again here.

24 people have BU in this one.  Alexi is the only one without the Terriers here, and he has Loyola, who is already out, so he’ll just be rooting for Lafayette to zero out this game for the whole field.  A plurality of the field has BU winning this tournament.

Boston U. 91 – Lafayette 54
BU looked clearly championship-worthy in their first-ever Patriot League tournament game in routing Lafayette.  This marked the end of a very disappointing season for the Leopards, who were picked 2nd in the PL in the preseason.

Alexi misses out on a solo upset pick here – the other 24 people picked up 8 points.  The 11 people who have BU winning this tournament keep their champ alive.

#4 Bucknell vs #5 Army
The Black Knights of Army have had a very good season this year that resulted in an upper-division finish.  They were in the race for league title for a while, but they hit a tough stretch and slipped to 5th, which puts them on the road here in the quarters.  And, it isn’t just any road trip – it is a trip to the red-hot Bucknell.  The Bison enter the tournament winners of 6 in a row, which started with a 12-point win over this Army team and ended with back-to-back road wins against the two best teams in the league.  This young team has come together at the right time and is absolutely one of the real contenders to win this tournament.

24 of the 25 entries went with Bucknell here.  Only Colton went with the mild upset pick of Army here, so this could be a huge win for him.  Caleb, Lazarow, Lynch, and Teddy all have a lot to lose here, as they have Bucknell winning this tournament.  7 more (Alexi, Becks, Dave, GrossJr, Mac, and WaTers) have Bucknell going to the finals, but losing.

Army 72 – Bucknell 71
MADNESS!  Bucknell was up 7 at home with 3 minutes left, but Kyle Wilson came up huge down the stretch, including the game-winner with :13 seconds left to send Army to Boston on Saturday for a semifinal against BU.  A pretty great season for the Black Knights continues for at least one more game.  The loss was a disappointing end to 2014 for the Bison, but their future is bright, as they had a really solid year and are the youngest team in the league.  Bucknell should return to the top of the PL sooner rather than later.

Colton got the nice solo upset pick here and picked up 12 free points on the entire rest of the field.  This was also a huge loss looking forward, as Caleb, Lazarow, Lynch, and Teddy all lost their PL champs, and 7 more lost a finalist.  Brackets were busted in Lewisburg Wednesday night.

#3 Holy Cross vs #6 Lehigh
This wide open tournament could see any number of champs, including the Crusaders of Holy Cross, who have looked like one of the better teams in this league all year and now it’s time to prove it.  They have a tough game to start the tournament against Lehigh, but the Mountain Hawks are young and possibly not as talented as the Lehigh teams of the recent past.  I know you are all missing the annual gushing over C.J. McCollum, but he’s now on the Portland Trailblazers, so I’ll leave it alone.

GrossSr, Lazarow, PapaCim, Scoot, and Stumpf all have Lehigh in a nice upset pick here.  GrossSr and PapaCim have the Mountain Hawks going to the finals.  Becks, Colton, and Waters have Holy Cross winning the whole thing.  Bry, Chris, Doogan, Gersh, Lohse, and Strits all have HC going to the finals and losing.

Holy Cross 54 – Lehigh 48
The Crusaders flexed their defensive muscles holding the Mountain Hawks to just 32% shooting and only 3-21 from long range.  The first half was a hard-fought back-and-forth war, but HC came out of the locker room and put it away with an 11-3 run that turned a 4-point halftime lead to an insurmountable 12-point lead.  The rest of the league has to take note of the way HC is playing right now, and there is no doubt that they are legit contenders for this title.  The Mountain Hawks season comes to a close, but they are young and gained some valuable experience this year.

5 people missed out on an upset pick here, including GrossSr and PapaCim, who had Lehigh in the finals.  6 others keep alive a finalist in Holy Cross.

#2 American vs #7 Colgate
What a season for American’s first-year head coach, Mike Brennan.  Brennan has brought his Princeton-style offense, having played for Pete Carril and coached under John Thompson III.  He was also the top assistant of the two best American teams of the past decade.  Now, Brennan has a chance to be the head man for a special season.  The Eagles – picked 9th out of 10 in the preseason – fell just short of winning the regular season title.  In fact, they went through the first half of conference play perfect – beating every team the first time through.  But, their second time through the league, they went just 4-5.  Was the league caught off-guard by the Princeton offense?  It is hard to say, but this tournament should be really interesting – and they do get at least the first two games at home.  The first one is this quarterfinal matchup against 7th-seeded Colgate, who knocked off the Naval Academy on Monday night.

This could be a potentially huge game for a couple people.  Bry, Doogan, Lynch, and Teddy all have Colgate in this upset pick that would be worth 28 points.  Lynch and Teddy have even more at stake, as they have Colgate winning again in the semis.  7 people (Alexi, Dave, GrossJr, J, Mac, RDoc, and Stri) put their PL champs on the line in this one with American.

American 59 – Colgate 50
The Eagles of American drowned Colgate in the first half and built enough of a lead to withstand a slow, steady second-half comeback attempt by the Red Raiders.  This was a season-low offensive output for Colgate, so credit the American defense – which has been the main reason they are in this position, despite a lack of on-paper talent.  The Eagles host Holy Cross on Saturday in the semifinals.

Bry, Doogan, Lynch, and Teddy all missed what would have been a gigantic upset pick.  The latter two both lost finalists in Colgate.  7 people kept alive their Patriot champion.

OPENING ROUND (March 3rd – 4 points each)

#7 Colgate vs. #10 Navy
Colgate had a pretty fantastic non-conference, by Colgate standards, at least.  They had road wins at Tulane and Albany, along with solid close losses to Syracuse, Georgetown, and Wake Forest.  So, there was some real optimism heading into conference play.  But, conference play was marred with tough, close losses and they had yet another bottom-half finish in the league.  They do open the tournament with a winnable home game against a Navy team that is – not surprisingly – at the bottom of the league, but who also had some nice wins throughout conference play – beating Bucknell at home and Army on the road.  They also had a solid 8-point win over this very Colgate team.  The winner of this game will travel to the Nation’s Capital to battle the surprising American Eagles in the quarters.

Only 3 people went for the upset with Navy here (Lazarow, PapaCim, and Waters) and none of them have the Midshipmen beating American in the quarters.  But, Colgate has a some big-time supporters.  Lynch and Teddy are trying to ride Colgate all the way to the finals.  Bry and Doogan have them winning tonight and then beating American in the quarters.

Colgate 57 – Navy 51
Damon Sherman-Newsome dropped 28 off the bench in Colgate’s season-ending win over Lehigh, and now he followed that up with 16 off the bench in the CTC’s opening game – a win over Navy.  The Midshipmen’s season wasn’t a disaster, but it does end here after a last-place regular season.  With the win, the Red Raiders move on DC to face 2nd-seeded American in the quarterfinals on Wednesday.

Lazarow, PapaCim, and Waters all missed the upset pick here, though none of them had Navy any further.  The other 22 all picked up their first 4 points of the 2014 CTC.  Lynch and Teddy keep alive one of their PL finalists.  Bry and Doogan keep alive a semifinalist here.

#8 Loyola (MD) vs. #9 Lafayette
Both of these teams had potential title-contending aspirations entering the season.  In fact, both teams were picked to be in the top 3 in the league in the preseason.  Their season derailed in different ways, though.  Lafayette was terrible for about 3/4 of the season, but they started to play really well in February.  Loyola, on the other hand, has been playing its worst ball of the year, but did hang on to the 8-seed, which means they will host the Leopards here in Round One.  The winner here will travel to Boston for a quarterfinal date with top-seeded Boston U.

Most people went with the underdog here, as only 8 people (Alexi, Chris, Colton, Doogan, GrossSr, J, RDoc, Scoot, and Stumpf) went with Loyola here.  Alexi actually has the Greyhounds beating #1 BU in the quarters.  None of the 16 people taking Lafayette have them beating BU next round.

Lafayette 84 – Loyola (MD) 71
Lafayette’s junior backcourt of Seth Hinrichs and Joey Ptasinski combined for 40 of the Leopards 84 points in a solid road win to round out opening night in the Patriot League tournament.  The Leopards, who started conference play an abysmal 1-9, have been playing very well as of late, but will need to beat the league’s best team (Boston U) on the road in order to prolong this season.  Loyola’s inaugural Patriot League season was a disappointment and it comes to a close on the first night of conference tournament action.

Alexi took the biggest hit here, losing a semifinalist in Loyola.  17 people actually got this mild upset pick, though none of them have Lafayette beating BU.

CTC UPDATE

Championship Picks

• #1  Boston U. (11)
• #2  American (7) – Alexi, Dave, GrossJr, J, Mac, RDoc, Stumpf
• #3  Holy Cross (3) – Becks, Colton, Waters
• #4 Bucknell (4) – Caleb, Lazarow, Lynch, Teddy

Biggest Upsets

• R1 – #10 Navy – Lazarow, PapaCim, Waters
• QF – #8 Loyola (MD) – Alexi
• SF – #7 Colgate – Lynch, Teddy

Previous CTC Champions

• 2008 – Doogan
• 2009 – Alexi
• 2010 – Teddy
• 2011 – GrossJr (perfect)
• 2012 – Mac (perfect)
• 2013 – GrossJr, J, Lohse, Rikey (perfect)

Final 2014 Scores

1. RDoc – 92 (’14)
2. Dave – 84
3. GrossJr – 84 (’11*, ’13*)
4. Mac – 84 (’12*)
5. Stumpf – 84
6. J – 80 (’13*)
7. Alexi – 68 (’09)
8. Primm – 68
9. Stri – 68
10. Colton – 56
11. Caleb – 52
12. Gersh – 52
13. Lohse – 52 (’13*)
14. Scoot – 52
15. Stritts – 52
16. Bry – 44
17. Chris – 44
18. GrossSr – 40
19. Lazarow – 40
20. PapaCim – 40
21. Becks – 36
22. Doogan – 36 (’08)
23. WaTers – 32
24. Lynch – 28
25. Teddy – 28 (’10)

For the first time since Day Three, no one broke 100 on a calm Day Nine.  But, the calmness is fleeting, as the chaos is about to be thrust upon us.  Doogan, GrossJr, and Stritts all won their first days of the contest and all moved up in the overall rankings.  Mac jumped up from 3rd to tie Colton for the overall lead, dropping Bry to 3rd.  Stritts flip-flopped with Stri at the back of the Top Five.  Doogan and Chris are just outside in 6th and 7th.  We still have 14 people within 100 of the leader.

The biggest move up the charts on the day was Alexi, who gained 5 spots to break into the Top Ten.  RDoc and Primm also cracked the Top Ten, each picking up 4 spots in the process.  Doogan, Becks, and Dave all gained three spots with solid days.  Lohse and GrossJr picked up a couple spots.

The biggest falls were Caleb, J, and PapaCim, who all fell 6 spots and all dropped out of the Top Eleven.  Gersh continued his recent free-fall, dropping another 5 spots on Day Nine.  Lazarow, who was already in the basement, had the roughest day, as he went 0-3 in C-USA, 0-2 in the SWAC, and didn’t get any of the champions that were crowned for our first goose-egg of 2014.

There were 4 more conference titles awarded on Day Nine.  Colton claimed the Horizon League, but missed out on two other chances for conference titles.  One was the NEC, where Lohse rose up and stole the crown with his fantastic Mount Saint Mary’s pick.  The other was the WCC, where he actually didn’t have a chance, but did finish second to GrossSr, who won the WCC title with a perfect bracket.  GrossJr also completed a perfect bracket on the day, as he and Stritts shared perfection in the Summit League.

And, here we go.  Day Ten is going to be only the beginning of total ridiculousness.  There are 32 games today with almost twice that scheduled for each of the next two days.  Many of the big-time conference kick off as well.  Today, we have the following conference continuing:

• Patriot League championship
• MEAC quarterfinals
• SWAC quarterfinals
• Conference USA second round
• MAC second round

And, these 9 conferences getting underway:

• ACC
• American
• Big East
• Big XII
• Pac-12
• SEC
• Atlantic 10
• Mountain West
• Southland

DAY NINE SCORES:

1. Doogan – 97
2. GrossJr – 97
3. Stritts – 97
4. Alexi – 95
5. Chris – 93
6. Dave – 93
7. Becks – 89.5
8. Lohse – 85
9. Mac – 79.5
10. Primm – 79.5
11. Scoot – 79.5
12. Stri – 77.5
13. Teddy – 71.5
14. RDoc – 65.5
15. Colton – 61
16. GrossSr – 57
17. WaTers – 55.5
18. Stumpf – 49
19. Caleb – 47
20. Bry – 45
21. Lynch – 42
22. J – 41.5
23. Gersh – 29.5
24. PapaCim – 21
25. Lazarow – 0

OVERALL STANDINGS:

1. Colton – 968.5
2. Mac – 968.5
3. *Bry – 946
4. *Stritts – 943.5
5. Stri – 933.5
6. *Doogan – 927.5
7. *Chris – 926.5
8. *RDoc – 887.5
9. *Primm – 887
10. Alexi – 884
11. *Becks – 884
12. Caleb – 881.5
13. Dave – 878.5
14. *J – 874
15. *Gersh – 857
16. Lohse – 845
17. PapaCim – 845
18. *GrossJr – 832.5
19. *Stumpf – 810
20. WaTers – 806
21. Teddy – 804
22. Scoot – 779.5
23. *GrossSr – 745
24. Lynch – 738.5
25. Lazarow – 678.5

The Gonzaga Conference stopped being the Gonzaga Conference a few years back when Saint Mary’s emerged as a legit threat to the WCC dominators.  Then, the conference welcomed BYU to even add to the challenge for the Zags.  But, Coach Few’s team just continues to get it done, winning yet another WCC championship and should be on their way to another NCAA Tournament bid (though, they are not yet assured of at-large status, so they might want to do what they always do and win this tournament).

Obviously, the most popular championship pick is the Zags garnering 16 of the 25 championship picks.  #2 BYU has 5 people behind them, while the sleeper at #3 San Francisco has 4 supporters.  Maybe in a reaction to getting trampled by Gonzaga on Saturday, no one picked Saint Mary’s to win this title, despite having some serious talent.  Loyola Marymount pulled off several upset in this tournament a year ago, and they have one entry that has them doing it again.  A couple people think #6 San Diego can reach the finals.  Interestingly, this conference has 6 different outright winners over 6 years.  That is bad news for GrossSr, who is trying to repeat.

CHAMPIONSHIP (March 11th – 48 points)

#1 Gonzaga vs #2 BYU
The WCC showdown that we were all hoping for headlines the Tuesday night docket.  Gonzaga, who was lucky to survive their quarterfinal with Santa Clara, beat Saint Mary’s convincingly in the semis and probably locked themselves up an at-large bid.  Though, they would rather not take the chance and win tonight.  BYU is in a much trickier position, from an at-large perspective, as they are smack-dab on the bubble and could REALLY use this win.  They kept their chances alive by surviving an OT scare Tuesday night against USF.  It will be interesting to see if that late-night overtime ending affects the Cougars today at this 6pm local start time.

This is a pretty big CTC game, as 21 people have a horse in this race (Gersh, Lynch, PapaCim, and Stumpf have already lost this game with USF) with major points at stake here.  5 people (Bry, Caleb, J, Lazarow, Lohse) have BYU taking this championship.  The other 16 people all have the Zags here.  A Gonzaga win here would complete a perfect WCC bracket (and 224 points) for GrossSr.  Bry would take this crown (also with 224 points) if BYU were to pull off the upset.

Gonzaga 75 – BYU 64

SEMIFINALS (March 10th – 32 points each)

#1 Gonzaga vs #4 Saint Mary’s
It was all-chalk in the WCC quarterfinals, setting up a great semifinal double-header on Monday night in Vegas.  The first game pits a Gonzaga team that got REALLY lucky to survive Santa Clara in the quarters against a Saint Mary’s team that cruised past Pepperdine in an 11-point win that wasn’t really that close.  These two teams have developed a VERY heated rivalry over the past couple of years, so it’s good to see them meeting up again with so much at stake.  But, this isn’t a vintage St. Mary’s team, and the Zags destroyed them 75-47 just last Saturday to end the regular season.  It should be interesting to see if the Gaels can muster something knowing that they have zero at-large hopes to fall back on – not that I think Gonzaga is competely safe, though.

J and Stumpf are the only two with a big Saint Mary’s upset pick here, though neither of them have the Gaels winning the whole thing.  The 23 others all have the Zags, including 16 who have them winning the tournament.

Gonzaga 70 – Saint Mary’s 54
And, the Gaels go down with relative ease in this rivarly that may die down if StM goes backwards as a program.  The Zags jumped out early and never looked back, as they advance to yet another WCC title game.  David Stockton was fantastic in this one, scoring 21 points, grabbing 6 boards, and dishing out 4 assists.

J and Stumpf miss on the upset pick here.  16 people keep alive their champ.

#2 BYU vs #3 San Francisco
The nightcap should be really good, as a strong BYU team needs this win for any shot at an at-large bid takes on a USF team that is in perfect position to a program-building couple of nights, if they can pull this off.  This game features to elite scorers in BYU’s Tyler Haws and USF’s Cole Dickerson.  Whichever team can keep the opposing star in relative check should be in good shape to head to the finals.

9 people (Alexi, Chris, Gersh, Lynch, Mac, PapaCim, Scoot, Stumpf, Teddy) have USF in this game, including Gersh, Lynch, PapaCim, and Stumpf, who have them winning this tournament.  Primm and WaTers had San Diego here, so they have already lost it.  The other 14 all have BYU, including Bry, Caleb, J, Lazarow, and Lohse, who have the Cougars winning this tournament.

BYU 79 – San Francisco 77 (OT)
Late into the night, BYU’s tournament hopes were kept alive with a thrilling overtime win over a Dons team that ends a very solid season.  BYU led most of the way here, but USF just kept fighting back and fighting back and feel just short of pulling off the upset.  WCC Player of the Year, Tyler Haws, who only shot 5-19 from the floor, scored 24 points thanks to 14-14 from the line.  Sensational senior Cole Dickerson played the last WCC game of his career, scoring 20 points and grabbing 10 rebounds.  BYU now moves on to a crucial game against Gonzaga where they can take the decision away from the Committee.

9 people missed this one with USF.  14 got it right with BYU, including 5 who have the Cougars taking the WCC title. 

QUARTERFINALS (March 8th – 16 points each)

#1 Gonzaga vs #9 Santa Clara
The Zags do it again…ho hum, another regular season title and probably another NCAA Tournament appearance even without the auto-bid (though, that is not a given this year, like most years).  The three guard rotation of Pangos, Bell, and Stockton is very good, particularly when Dower and Karnowski are the bigs.  Pangos can play with anyone offensively, and Bell can play with anyone defensively.  This doesn’t look the version of the Zags that will get Mark Few to his first Final Four, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they were still kicking on the second weekend.  They have to get there first and a quarterfinal loss would put them squarely on the bubble.  Santa Clara is dangerous, and they did hammer Pacific on Thursday night, so the Zags should come prepared.

All 25 people have the Zags here, with 23 picking them to reach the finals, and 16 picking them to cut down the WCC nets.

Gonzaga 77 – Santa Clara 75

#4 Saint Mary’s vs #5 Pepperdine
It has been a pretty disappointing year in Moraga.  The Gaels of Saint Mary’s still have talent, but they just didn’t put it together this year.  Waldow and Holt are solid, but there is no Dellavadova or Mills here to lead the way.  This is not a tournament team and, as evidenced by their 28-point beatdown at Gonzaga on Saturday, may not even be a threat to win this auto-bid.  The Waves of Pepperdine have had a pretty nice turnaround season – one that was sorely needed in Malibu, I’m sure.  They shouldn’t be overlooked here, as they did beat BYU and took this Saint Mary’s team to OT.  But, mainly, they feasted on the bottom of the conference to get their wins, so we may be heading for a St. Mary’s-Gonzaga bloodfeud in the semis.

Only 3 people (PapaCim, Primm, WaTers) have Pepperdine here.  Of the 23 people that have StM winning this game, only J and Stumpf have them beating Gonzaga in the semis and neither have the Gaels winning the whole thing.

Saint Mary’s 80 – Pepperdine 69

#2 BYU vs #10 Loyola Marymount
The Cougars have WAY too much talent to miss the NCAA Tournament, but is probably their fate if they don’t AT THE VERY LEAST make the finals of this tournament.  They just don’t have the at-large resume.  But, they have some superstars.  The backcourt running mates of Matt Carlino and Tyler Haws (maybe the best offensive player no one ever talks about) and the phenom freshman, Erik Meek, in the middle are all special.  This team can really get up and down the floor and would be a scary opponent to anyone in the country in the Dance.  But, they have to get there first.  And, they have to face the WCC’s upset specialists in Loyola Marymount, who pulled off yet another one on Thursday night when they beat Portland.

WaTers actually has LMU winning again here, which would be a HUGE upset pick.  Bry, Caleb, J, Lazarow, and Lohse all have BYU winning it all.  9 more (Becks, Colton, Dave, Doogan, GrossJr, GrossSr, RDoc, Stri, Stritts) have the Cougars reaching the finals.

BYU 85 – Loyola Marymount 74

#3 San Francisco vs #6 San Diego
Rex Walters finally had a season he can look at as successful in San Fran.  After some unimpressive years, this Dons team really put it together and was relevant in the WCC race.  Next step?  Get to the Dance.  It won’t be easy this year (or any year) in the WCC, but they have a shot.  Then again, they split with St. Mary’s and were 0-4 against BYU and Gonzaga.  They were 12-0 against the bottom six teams in the league.  San Diego, who lost two games by a combined 9 points to USF made a late push, including a huge 69-66 win over Gonzaga on Feb 22, to avoid the first round and get a bye to the quarters.  The Terreros are young with marginal talent, but can rise up and beat you, if you give them room.

10 people (Bry, Caleb, Colton, Dave, Doogan, GrossJr, Lazarow, Primm, Stri, WaTers) went with the USD upset here.  Primm and WaTers went a step further and have the Terreros reaching the finals.  Gersh, Lynch, PapaCim, and Stumpf all have the Dons winning this entire tournament, so they have a lot to lose here.  5 more (Alexi, Chris, Mac, Scoot, Teddy) have the Dons reaching the finals.

San Francisco 69 – San Diego 60

OPENING ROUND (March 6th – 8 points each)

#7 Portland vs #10 Loyola Marymount
Portland blew a late lead against Pacific on Saturday and, consequently, gave away their first-round bye and are now relegated to an opening round matchup against one of the better last-place teams you will find.  LMU was supposed to be in the upper half of this league, but they fell apart late in the season and are limping into this tournament.  But, they do have talent and shouldn’t be overlooked.  In fact, it was just a year ago when LMU was 1-15 in the WCC before pulling off three straight upsets in the conference tournament before falling in the semis to Gonzaga.  The winner of this game will get #2 BYU in the quarters.

9 people (Bry, Colton, Gersh, GrossSr, J, Lynch, PapaCim, Scoot, WaTers) took a shot at an LMU upset in the opening round.  WaTers actually has them beating #2 BYU in the quarters.  Teddy is the only one of the 16 Portland picks that has them advancing to the semis, so he has the most to lose with the Pilots.

Loyola Marymount 67 – Portland 64
Here we go again.  If you don’t remember last year’s WCC tournament, LMU – who finished 1-15 in conference play – pulled off three straight crazy upsets before getting plastered by a Gonzaga team ranked #1 in the country at the time.  Well, the format has changed in the WCC, so there isn’t as much room for all these consecutive wins before facing a big boy, but they pulled off another one Thursday night, as they end the season of a decent Portland team right off the bat.  Next up for the upset-minded Lions is #2 BYU on Saturday.

9 people hit this upset, including WaTers, who picked the Lions to also beat BYU.  Teddy’s bracket took a hit here, as he had Portland in the semis.

#8 Pacific vs #9 Santa Clara
The newest WCC member, Pacific, actually acquitted themselves well after taking the big step up from the Big West.  The Tigers finished 15-14 overall and 6-12 in the conference, including a win over BYU.  They play their first ever WCC Tournament game here in the opening round against Santa Clara, a team that unsuccessfully tried to make up for a terribly disappointing 2012-13.  The Broncos clearly have some more rebuilding to do.  The winner will get the honor of losing to Gonzaga in the quarterfinals.

9th-seeded Santa Clara is actually the more popular pick here, as only 10 of the 25 entries (Becks, Caleb, Dave, Gersh, J, Lazarow, PapaCim, Scoot, Stumpf, WaTers) picked the favored Tigers.  No one has either of these teams beating Gonzaga in the quarters.

Santa Clara 81 – Pacific 64
The regular season is a different animal.  Pacific got indocturnated to the WCC this year and fared okay – finishing 8th, but rather competitive.  But, the conference tournament is a little different, and this ain’t the Big West any more.  Pacific got manhandled by Santa Clara in the nightcap of the WCC’s opening round, ending their inaugural WCC season.  Santa Clara now moves on to Saturday’s quarterfinal against #1 Gonzaga.

15 people got this right.  No one had Gonzaga losing to either of these teams, so this game is the only ramification from a CTC standpoint, though people that don’t have Gonzaga winning the tournament are probably okay with this result, as SC has a slightly higher chance of upsetting the Zags than Pacific would have.

CTC UPDATE

Championship Picks

• #1 Gonzaga (16)
• #2 BYU (5) – Bry, Caleb, J, Lazarow, Lynch
• #3 San Francisco (4) – Gersh, Lynch, PapaCim, Stumpf

Biggest Upsets

• R1 – #10 Loyola Marymount (many)
• QF – #10 Loyola Marymount (WaTers)
• SF – #6 San Diego (Primm, WaTers)

Previous CTC Champions

• 2008 – Waters
• 2009 – Ina (perfect)
• 2010 – Lynch
• 2011 – Bry (perfect)
• 2012 – Alexi
• 2013 – GrossSr

Final 2014 Scores

1. GrossSr – 224*
2. Colton – 208
3. RDoc – 192
4. Stritts – 192
5. Becks – 176
6. Doogan – 176
7. GrossJr – 176
8. Scoot – 176
9. Stri – 176
10. Alexi – 160
11. Bry – 160
12. Chris – 160
13. Dave – 160
14. Mac – 160
15. Lohse – 144
16. Lynch – 144
17. Teddy – 144
18. Gersh – 128
19. J – 128
20. Primm – 128
21. WaTers – 128
22. Caleb – 112
23. Lazarow – 112
24. PapaCim – 112
25. Stumpf – 64

This was a very encouraging season in a very underrated league.  North Dakota State is a nationally-relevant team, even if people don’t know it yet.  South Dakota State has most of their nationally-relevant team back (except for Nate Wolters, of course, who is now paid by the Milwaukee Bucks), Denver plays some of the best defense in the country, and IPFW has had one of the most surprisingly good seasons anywhere.  And, they don’t even have a solid NE-Omaha team playing in this tournament because they are still in transition.

NDSU is the overwhelming pick of the CTC this year, as 19 of the 25 took the Bison here.  However, the other 6 picks were spread around 4 other teams, including one pick for last-place IUPUI to shock the league and win the tournament.  Lohse has won at least a share of the Summit League title THREE times, including an outright victory last year, so he is clearly the CTC favorite this year.

CHAMPIONSHIP (March 11th – 24 points)

#1 North Dakota State vs #2 IPFW
Here we go, for all the Summit marbles (whatever that means…).  All regular season the Bison looked head and shoulders above the rest of the league, and never more so than Tuesday’s semifinal against a good Denver team, when NDSU simply pounded the Pioneers 83-48.  Their next and final Summit victim they hope will be IPFW, who played a very solid game in beating South Dakota State in the semifinals.  The Mastadons have the 11th best FG% in the country, and the Bison aren’t exactly an elite defensive team, so there might be vulnerability there.  And, one of NDSU’s two conference losses came on January 9th at IPFW, 82-71.  I actually watched their whole February 8th matchup in Fargo (an 11-point NDSU win), and IPFW certainly didn’t look totally overmatched.  They have a good front line, so if (and this is a HUGE if) they can keep Taylor Braun in check, they have a shot here.  I’m certainly not predicting it, but this probably won’t be a second straight 35-point win for the Bison.

This is a pretty big game for the chase pack in the overall standings, as overall leader, Colton, is one of two people (along with Teddy) to take IPFW to win this tournament.  If they don’t, Colton will give away 24 points to most of the field.  Only GrossSr, Lazarow, PapaCim, and RDoc took someone other than NDSU here.  No matter what happens, there will be a shared title with perfect brackets.  Colton will win yet another conference title (he has a chance at THREE conference titles tonight) if IPFW wins – he will actually share perfection with Teddy.  If NDSU wins, GrossJr will be perfect to win his second career Summit title and will share it with Stritts, who would also be perfect to take his first ever CTC conference crown.

North Dakota State 60 – IPFW 57

SEMIFINALS (March 10th – 16 points each)

#1 North Dakota State vs #4 Denver
The four best teams in the Summit League will compete in a pretty interesting semifinal double-header Monday night in Sioux Falls.  The Bison of North Dakota State have been the Summit’s best team all year and are going to give some coach absolute fits trying to gameplan against if they are to win this tournament and make the Dance.  The Bison beat Notre Dame, Western Michigan, Delaware, Towson, Santa Clara, Rider, and Bryant in a very impressive noncon season, which also included tough road losses at Ohio State and Saint Mary’s.  This team, led by two guys that you are absolutely worth the price of admission, is a pretty big favorite to win this tournament.  Dead-eye shooter Taylor Braun is as good as they come as far as mid-major guards go, and Marshall Bjorkland is one of the most efficient players in college basketball history.  Check out this career – FR: 8.7 PPG, 65% FG; SO: 11.6 PPG, 67% FG; JR: 11.5 PPG, 67% FG; SR: 13.6 PPG, 64% FG.  If you’re scoring at home, this dude – at 6’8″ – has scored 1,400 points in his career – 577 field goals on just 879 attempts – shooting at an astronomical 65.6% clip.  Try to wrap your head around how ridiculous that is.  Braun and Bjorkland open their quest to finish their senior years in the tournament against a tough, efficient Denver team.  Denver is very good, but don’t let their unbelievably SLOOOOOW pace of play confuse you into thinking they have an elite defense.  They are the second-slowest team in the nation (faster than only, interestingly enough, Jim Larranaga’s Miami Hurricanes), but their defensive efficiency is good, but not great.  So, their defense gets overrated by their slow pace, but, on the flip side, they are actually incredibly efficient on the offensive end, which gets entirely underrated because they only score in the low-60s.  Ahh, tempo-free stats…they’re FAN-tastic.  Anyway, this should be a good opener of the Summit semifinal double-header.

GrossSr, PapaCim, and RDoc are the only 3 that have Denver in a solid upset pick here.  The other 22 people all have NDSU, including 19 that picked them to win it all.

North Dakota State 83 – Denver 48
Uh…wow.  Denver’s slow-it-down offense making their defense look better scheme falls apart when you allow your opponents to shoot 63% from the floor and 8-12 from 3-point land.  83 points and only 7 turnovers is remarkable.  Taylor Braun went crazy, dropping 28 in an absolute rout of a semifinal for NDSU.  Denver’s season ends ignominiously, to say the least.

GrossSr, PapaCim, and RDoc miss the upset here.  19 people keep alive a champion that looks pretty good right now.

#2 IPFW vs #3 South Dakota State
IPFW had a day off after their exhibition quarterfinal match against IUPUI where they torched the Jaguars by 38 in a game that wasn’t even that close.  South Dakota State is on the backend of a back-to-back, though they did cruise over Western Illinois on Sunday night.  Will the surprising season for IPFW continue to the Summit finals or will the Jackrabbits continue their hot play down the stretch and get one game from heading back to the Dance without the Wolters worship.

Only 10 people (Colton, Dave, GrossJr, Mac, PapaCim, Primm, RDoc, Scoot, Stritts, Teddy) have the 2nd-seeded Mastadons here, while 14 people have the Jackrabbits.  Lazarow is the only one with no chance of winning this one, as he had IUPUI here.  Colton and Teddy put their Summit champ on the line with IPFW; GrossSr puts his on the line with SDSU.

IPFW 64 – South Dakota State 60
The Jackrabbits entered this tournament playing very well, but they are ousted by 2nd-seeded IPFW, whose dream season continues.  This game – in which neither team had a double-digit lead the whole way – was taken over by IPFW’s sensational freshman Mo Evans (the Summit League’s 6th Man of the Year and one of only two freshmen on the All-Newcomer Team), who came off the bench to go 6-7 from downtown plus 4 steals on the defensive end.  Now, Evans and All-Summit forwards Luis Jacobo and Steve Forbes will move on to try and take down the might NDSU Bison.

10 people hit this one, including Colton and Teddy, who keep alive their Summit champ.  GrossSr loses his champ here.

QUARTERFINALS (March 8th & 9th – 8 points each)

#2 IPFW vs #7 IUPUI
These two programs have switched places from where they were a few years ago.  IUPUI, under Ron Hunter, was on the national landscape, while IPFW was still building.  Now, IUPUI has fallen on hard times – and was really bad this year – while IPFW is a serious conference title contender.  Led by the big guy in the middle, Steve Forbes, IPFW shocked all who picked them 7th in this 8-team league in the preseason, finishing behind only NDSU.

23 people have IPFW in this one.  Only Bry and Lazarow went with IUPUI.  Lazarow went crazy, though, and took the last-place Jaguars to win this whole tournament.  Colton and Teddy have the most at stake here with Fort Wayne, as they have IPFW winning it all, so someone is going to lose a Summit champ here in the first quarterfinal.  8 more (Dave, Grossjr, Mac, PapaCim, Primm, RDoc, Scoot, Stritts) have IPFW reaching the finals.

IPFW 85 – IUPUI 47
IPFW absolutely plastered their rivals, IUPUI, here in the lone game of the Summit League tournament’s opening day.  When you shoot 57% from the field, outrebound your opponents 37-23, AND force 16 TOs to only 10 committed, you know you THOROUGHLY dominated your opponents.  We probably won’t see a blowout quite this bad throughout these two weeks.  What a nightmare of a season for IUPUI, while a really nice season in Fort Wayne continues to the semis (after a day’s rest).

Bry and Lazarow probably aren’t proud of going for this upset.  The other 23 picked up the easy 4 points.  Colton and Teddy have to be happy with the performance of their Summit title pick.

#4 Denver vs #5 South Dakota
South Dakota was picked last in the league in the preseason, but the Coyotes were decent and can rise up and beat someone.  Denver and their suffocatingly slow defense is loved by the tempo-free people, but they really didn’t actually win that many games.  But, if these advanced metrics are any indication, they will be a really tough out in this – or any – tournament.  The winner of this game will face #1 North Dakota State in the semis.  A Denver-NDSU semi could be VERY interesting.

Only 7 people (Dave, Gersh, Lazarow, Lohse, Mac, Primm, Stri) went for the mild upset pick with South Dakota here, with none of them picking the Coyotes to go any further.  PapaCim and RDoc put their Summit champ on the line here with Denver.  GrossSr is the only other person to pick the Pioneers to reach the finals.

Denver 71 – South Dakota 55
The Pioneers  have had really good, tournament-quality teams the past two years, but while they underachieved a bit in the regular seasons, they also happened to pick seasons where there were special teams in the Summit.  Last year, South Dakota State’s Nate Wolters, Jordan Dykstra, and company were not going to be denied, and this year, North Dakota State looked like a juggernaut.  But, Sunday’s quarterfinal win for Denver sets up a semifinal date with the Bison.

18 people got this one right, including PapaCim and RDoc, who keep alive their champ.  GrossSr keeps alive a finalist.

#3 South Dakota State vs #6 Western Illinois
The Jackrabbits have been kind of an afterthought this year in an interesting Summit League, but they are right there and definitely a threat, even with Mr. Wolters.  The Leathernecks of WIU used to be relevant in this league, but this year is a building year, as their two best players are freshmen (and good ones).  The future is bright for WIU, but it probably hasn’t arrived yet.

24 people picked the Jackrabbits in this one, with Scoot being all alone on Western Illinois, so he’s looking for a free 20 points here.  GrossSr puts his Summit champ in play here, as he picked SDSU to win this tournament.  12 others (Alexi, Becks, Bry, Caleb, Chris, Doogan, Gersh, J, Lohse, Lynch, Stri, Stumpf) have the Jackrabbits reaching the finals.

 South Dakota State 71 – Western Illinois 50
In a close game most of the first half, the Jackrabbits ran away from the Leathernecks in the second half setting up Monday’s semifinal matchup with IPFW.  Jordan Dykstra adds a double-double for SDSU.

Scoot misses out on a solo victory here, as the other 24 people all get this one right.  13 people keep alive a finalist with this one, including GrossSr, who keeps his champ alive.

CTC UPDATE

Championship Picks

• #1 North Dakota State (19)
• #2 IPFW (2) – Colton, Teddy
• #3 South Dakota State (1) – GrossSr
• #4 Denver (2) – PapaCim, RDoc
• #5 South Dakota (0)
• #6 Western Illinois (0)
• #7 IUPUI (1) – Lazarow

Biggest Upsets

• QF – #7 IUPUI (Bry, Lazarow)
• SF – #7 IUPUI (Lazarow)

Previous CTC Champions

• 2008 – Waters (perfect)
• 2009 – Doogan, Stri
• 2010 – Alexi, Bry, Lohse
• 2011 – Bry, GrossJr, Lil Lohse, Lohse, Lynch, Mac, Stri, Teddy
• 2012 – GrossJr
• 2013 – Lohse

Final 2014 Scores

1. GrossJr – 80*
2. Stritts – 80*
3. Dave – 72
4. Mac – 72
5. Primm – 72
6. Scoot – 72
7. Alexi – 64
8. Becks – 64
9. Caleb – 64
10. Chris – 64
11. Doogan – 64
12. J – 64
13. Lynch – 64
14. Stumpf – 64
15. Bry – 56
16. Colton – 56
17. Gersh – 56
18. Lohse – 56
19. Stri – 56
20. Teddy – 56
21. PapaCim – 40
22. RDoc – 40
23. WaTers – 40
24. GrossSr – 24
25. Lazarow – 24

It was a new feel in the NEC this year because the juggernaut that had been the LIU Blackbirds had been broken up by injuries, graduation, and arrests and there was a power vacuum just waiting to be filled.  What happened was – not surprisingly – that Robert Morris stepped right into their previous spot atop the NEC, easily beating out preseason favorites, Wagner and Bryant.  LIU hit rock bottom, as, along with the dreadful 5-26 Sacred Heart squad, didn’t even make this 8-team tournament, while typical doormats Fairleigh Dickinson and Saint Francis (PA) both qualified.

23 of the 25 entries went with either #1 RMC or #2 Wagner here in the NEC, with 13 of them picking RMC.  While no one took RMC to lose in the quarters, there were a couple who liked Wagner to go down early.  #5 Saint Francis (NY) was the longest shot for champion, while another one took #4 Mount Saint Mary’s, so someone is guaranteed to lose a champion on the first day of this tournament.  Stri dominated this tournament early, winning 3 of the first 4 CTC NEC tournaments, including twice perfect, but Stumpf debuted last year with an NEC title, so he’s looking to repeat this year.

CHAMPIONSHIP (March 11th – 18 points)

#1 Robert Morris vs #4 Mount Saint Mary’s
Top-seeded Robert Morris gets to host every tournament game they are in – and it’s a good thing because they have not played very well in this tournament.  Maybe the most uninspiring run to a conference championship I can remember, RMC barely sqeaked by – at home – two of the worst programs in the NEC (FDU and SFPA).  Mount Saint Mary’s, on the other hand, has looked rock solid in this tournament.  They erased a 19-point second half lead to beat a good SFNY team in the quarterfinals, and then went to Staten Island and took down a red-hot Wagner team in the semis.  RMC has been the better team all year and is at home, but MSM has looked much better throughout this tournament.  I still like the Colonials in Corapolis, but they shouldn’t get comfortable because this MSM team comes ready to play.

Lohse is one win away from the incredible prediction of a MSM NEC championship.  13 people (Bry, Chris, Colton, Dave, Doogan, Gersh, GrossSr, J, Lynch, Scoot, Stri, Stumpf, WaTers) are hoping that that doesn’t happen and that they can get the 18 points for a RMC championship.  That RMC championship would complete a perfect NEC bracket for both Colton and WaTers.  Obviously, Lohse would take the 2014 NEC title if MSM wins.

Mount Saint Mary’s 88 – Robert Morris 71
An email from Lohse at the beginning of this tournament simply read “Cim, don’t sleep on the Mount.”  Well, it’s official, I slept on the Mount and they had an incredibly impressive run through the NEC to claim the auto-bid and send Robert Morris to the NIT for the second straight year.  RMC has to have been heart-broken to lose in the conference tournament on their home floor two years in a row.

Colton and WaTers miss out on a perfect NEC bracket here, as Lohse claims the NEC conference title.

SEMIFINALS (March 8th – 12 points each)

#1 Robert Morris vs #6 Saint Francis (PA)
Top-seeded Robert Morris survived a surprisingly tough quarterfinal against one of the perennial NEC doormats, Fairleigh Dickinson, and now, since this tournament reseeds, they host the other perennial doormat, SFPA.  The Red Flashes went into #3 Bryant’s house on Wednesday night and upset the Bulldogs get this shot at #1 RMC.

No one has SFPA reaching the finals, but 20 (everyone except Alexi, Caleb, Lohse, RDoc, and Teddy) have RMC going to the finals, with 13 of them (Bry, Chris, Colton, Dave, Doogan, Gersh, GrossSr, J, Lynch, Scoot, Stri, Stumpf, WaTers) taking the Colonials to win this tournament.

Robert Morris 60 – Saint Francis (PA) 57

#2 Wagner vs #4 Mount Saint Mary’s
Mount Saint Mary’s may just feel lucky to be in Staten Island (not sure that phrase has ever been used before) for this semifinal.  After their miracle comeback win at home over Saint Francis (NY), the Mountaineers now have to go on the road to face the hottest team in the league, who are coming off a throttling of Central Connecticut State in the quarters.

Caleb, PapaCim, RDoc, and Teddy have already lost this game with SFNY, but the other 21 all have something at stake here.  16 people (Alexi, Becks, Bry, Caleb, Chris, Doogan, Gersh, GrossJr, GrossSr, Lazarow, Lazarow, Primm, RDoc, Stri, Stritts, Teddy) have Wagner going to the finals.  4 have MSM (Alexi, Colton, Lohse, WaTers).  In a strange twist that only happens in these reseeding tournaments, Alexi actually has Wagner beating Mount Saint Mary’s in the NEC championship game, so no matter what happens in this game, he will have one finalist correct.  Depending on how you look at it, he could be rooting for MSM to get the extra upset points or he could be rooting for Wagner to keep alive his title hopes.

Mount Saint Mary’s 77 – Wagner 72

QUARTERFINALS (March 5th – 6 points each)

#1 Robert Morris vs #8 Fairleigh Dickinson
The conference champs will host a Fairleigh Dickinson team that had a very interesting season.  The Knights haven’t even made this conference tournament in several seasons and were picked last again in the preseason and did their typical slate of buy games, including a 46-point drubbing at Arizona.  But, in 3 nights in December, they went stated their case as maybe the best team in Jersey by winning at Rutgers one night and at Seton Hall two nights later…WHAT?!?!?  Well, it will take another big road win to keep their season alive here, as RMC is the odds-on favorite to go back to the Dance and it starts now.

No one has FDU here and 13 of the 25 entries went with RMC to win this whole tournament.  Alexi, Caleb, Lohse, RDoc, and Teddy are the only 5 that have RMC losing before the finals, so they would actually benefit from getting this one wrong tonight.

Robert Morris 60 – Fairleigh Dickinson 53
The Colonials had a much tougher quarterfinal than they may have bargained for, but at the end of the day, there was just too much Lucky Jones for the upstart Knights of FDU.  Normally, the doormat of the NEC, FDU had an encouraging season that maybe they can build upon.  As for RMC, survive and advance is all they did and they move on to the semis on Saturday.

Everyone got this one right, including 13 people who keep alive a champ.

#4 Mount Saint Mary’s vs #5 Saint Francis (NY)
This was supposed to be the year that Saint Francis (NY) entered the discussion for conference championship, but they never actually put the pieces together and now they will, most likely, have to win 3 straight road games to get to the Tournament.  The first one will have to be at Mount Saint Mary’s, who had an under-the-radar consistently solid season in the NEC and have earned their quarterfinal game to be on their home court, where they have only lost 2 league games all year – one to first-place Robert Morris and one shocker to last-place Sacred Heart.

Through two days of the CTC, no one lost a tournament champion, but that is guaranteed to change on Day Three, as PapaCim has SFNY winning this tourney, and Lohse has MSM cutting down the nets.  As for this game, it is also big on just the quarterfinal level, as the field is pretty split.  14 people went with the underdog, while 11 took the favored MSM (Alexi, Chris, Colton, Dave, Gersh, GrossSr, Lohse, Lynch, Primm, Stri, Waters).  Alexi, Colton, Lohse, and WaTers have the Mountaineers going to the NEC title game.  Other than PapaCim, who has SFNY winning this tournament, Caleb, RDoc, and Teddy have them going to the finals, so this game is big for them, as well.

Mount Saint Mary’s 72 – Saint Francis (NY) 71
MADNESS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  And, another devastating ending to a season for SFNY.  Up by 19 points with minutes left, SFNY could smell a trip to the semis, but MSM’s furious comeback was capped by a cold-blooded 3 with :02 seconds left by some guy named Rashad Whack (you can’t make this stuff up) won the game for the Mountaineers in thrilling fashion.

PapaCim took this loss the hardest in the CTC, as he had SFNY winning this tournament.  Caleb, RDoc, and Teddy also had their brackets partially busted, as they lost a finalist.  Alexi, Colton, and WaTers can breathe easier knowing they didn’t lose an NEC finalist tonight.  But, the big winner here is Lohse.  If MSM parlays this 19-point comeback into a crazy run to the NEC title, Lohse will have nailed it.  Wow!

#3 Bryant vs #6 Saint Francis (PA)
Bryant had a real shot at this conference title, but two tough losses to Robert Morris did them in and they had to settle for a third-place finish and a quarterfinal home game against one of the annual conference doormats.  Saint Francis (PA) was picked only ahead of FDU in the preseason, but won 7 conference games and finished 6th.  It was a pretty unimpressive 7-9 in conference play, though, as they didn’t beat a single team above them in the standings.  They were 7-0 against the 7th-, 8th-, 9th-, and 10th-place teams and 0-9 against teams in the top 5.  Look for Bryant to roll through to the semis.

Only 5 people (Colton, Gersh, both Grosses, WaTers) took SFPA in a decent upset pick.  None of them have them going any further.  I am honestly surprised that no one took Bryant to win this tournament, but I guess their fade down the stretch scared people off from one of the more talented teams in the league with probably the easiest quarterfinal matchup.  Dave, J, Lohse, Lynch, Scoot, and Stumpf all took them to reach the finals, but they all have them losing when they get there.

Saint Francis (PA) 55 – Bryant 54
More Madness!  It was upset enough that the Red Flash of SFPA even made the NEC tournament, as they are a down program with very few resources, even relative to other low-major programs, but now to go on the road and beat a legit title contender in the quarters is another thing altogether.  (This also didn’t help one of my CBC entries…)  This is a devastating loss for a Bryant program still trying to make their first Big Dance.  SFPA will have to capture some more of this magic as they make the trip down the road to Corapolis for a semifinal against in-state rival, Robert Morris, on Saturday.

Colton (who is seemingly crushing it today), Gersh, GrossJr, GrossSr, and WaTers all hit this nice upset pick.  6 people lost a finalist in this one.

#2 Wagner vs #7 Central Connecticut State
It looked for a while like CCSU was going to finish disappointingly without even making the conference tournament, but they turned it around just in time and snuck in to the 7-seed, earning a trip to beautiful Staten Island to face the second-place Seahawks.  Picked to win this league, Wagner started off a very disappointing 3-4 in the league.  9 wins later, including a season-ending 59-48 win over top-seeded Robert Morris, and they might be the best team in the league right now.  But, in order for Wagner to win this tournament, someone will have to beat Robert Morris in Corapolis.  Will it have to them in the finals?  If so, it will be after a quarterfinal win here and likely a semifinal win over a tough Bryant team.

Dave and PapaCim went for the huge upset here with CCSU (neither have them going any further).  10 people (Alexi, Becks, Caleb, GrossJr, Lazarow, Mac, Primm, RDoc, Stritts, Teddy) have everything at stake here with Wagner as their title pick.

Wagner 83 – Central Connecticut State 59
Wagner won their 9th straight game with ease here in the quarterfinals and cruise into the semifinals against Mount Saint Mary’s.  CCSU rallied to make the NEC tournament and it looks like they were just happy to be there.  Watch out for this Wagner team, they are playing as well as anyone right now under their 28-year old head coach and may be on their way to the Dance.

Dave and PapaCim missed what could have been a mighty upset pick.  10 people keep alive their NEC champ here.

CTC UPDATE

Championship Picks

• #1 Robert Morris (13)
• #2 Wagner (10) – Alexi, Becks, Caleb, GrossJr, Lazarow, Mac, Primm, RDoc, Stritts, Teddy
• #3 Bryant (0)
• #4 Mount Saint Mary’s (1) – Lohse
• #5 Saint Francis (NY) (1) – PapaCim

Biggest Upsets

• QF – #7 Central Connecticut State – Dave, PapaCim
• SF – #5 Saint Francis (NY) – Caleb, PapaCim, RDoc, Teddy

Previous CTC Champions

• 2008 – Stri
• 2009 – Bry, Stri (perfect)
• 2010 – Lil Lohse
• 2011 – Scoot, Stri (perfect)
• 2012 – Lil Lohse, Mac, Primm, Rikey (perfect)
• 2013 – Stumpf

Final 2014 Scores

1. Lohse – 75 (’14)
2. Colton – 66
3. Waters – 66
4. Gersh – 45
5. GrossSr – 45
6. Alexi – 39
7. GrossJr – 39
8. Chris – 30
9. Lynch – 30
10. Primm – 30 (’12*)
11. Stri – 30 (’08, ’09*, ’11*)
12. Becks – 24
13. Bry – 24 (’09*)
14. Dave – 24
15. Doogan – 24
16. J – 24
17. Lazarow – 24
18. Mac – 24 (’12*)
19. Scoot – 24 (’11*)
20. Stritts – 24
21. Stumpf – 24 (’13)
22. PapaCim – 18
23. Caleb – 12
24. RDoc – 12
25. Teddy – 12

Butler leaving two years ago took some steam out of the ascending Horizon League, but what is left is still a pretty solid mid-major league.  There are no real at-large teams in the league this year (though if Green Bay were to make the championship game, they might be in the discussion), but it was still a decent league top to bottom this year, and this tournament should be entertaining at the very least.  The Horizon has a great format for a tournament with the first round games on campuses Tuesday night, the quarters and semis hosted by the league champion on Friday and Saturday night, and the finals on the home court of the top remaining seed last next Tuesday.  The structure also awards regular season performance by providing double-byes to the top 2 seeds (Green Bay and Cleveland State) and a single-bye to 3rd-place (Wright State beat out Valpo on the last day of the season), so every spot is critical, keeping the regular season endlessly interesting. Top-seeded Green Bay is a very popular choice here in the CTC, as 18 of the 25 entries have the Phoenix taking this title.  8th-seeded Detroit is a very popular upset pick in the first round and even has three supporters picking them to win a pair of games.  Caleb is going for a repeat victory here in the Horizon.  Bry is the only one to have won this league more than once.  As a 3x tournament in the first week, this one could go a long way towards establishing a strong CTC position early.  In fact, the Milwaukee-Detroit Opening Round game might be the biggest CTC game ever on the First Tuesday.

CHAMPIONSHIP (March 11th – 36 points)

#3 Wright State vs #5 Milwaukee
Things could not have broken better for Wright State in the semifinals on Saturday night.  They took care of business against a really good Cleveland State team and then sat back and watched as Milwaukee pulled off a second straight upset, beating in-state rival and huge conference favorite, Green Bay, on their home floor in overtime.  Now, not only does Wright avoid the best team in the league in the finals, but they now get to host this championship game in their own gym.  But, they shouldn’t get too comfortable, as Milwaukee has already eliminated Detroit, Valparaiso, and Green Bay in this tournament.  One more and they’ll be dancing.

Just to exemplify how unlikely of a final this is – there is only one person in the entire CTC that can get any points from this game tonight.  Stumpf.  Stumpf was the only one to take Wright State to win the Horizon, and not a soul took Milwaukee.  So, either this game will be completely zeroed out or Stumpf will pick up a FREE AND CLEAR 60 POINTS!  Wouldn’t that be nice?  Obviously, a Wright State win would give Stumpf a dominant Horizon League victory.  If Milwaukee wins, Colton will take his first ever CTC conference title.

Milwaukee 69 – Wright State 63
What a run.  Wow!  Milwaukee sure earned their way to the Dance with an incredible run through this tournament.  I still don’t know how this happened – this team was picked to finish 9th in the 9-team Horizon and now they are going to represent this league in the Big Dance.

No one gets any points for this championship, so Colton takes his first ever CTC conference title.

SEMIFINALS (March 8th – 24 points each)

#2 Cleveland State vs #3 Wright State
Cleveland State was supposed to be okay this year, but they completely outperformed even the most optimistic projections.  The Vikings picked up quality noncon wins like Iona, Robert Morris, and Western Carolina and then carried that momentum into conference play, where they went 12-4 and earned the 2-seed and the corresponding double-bye.  The open the conference tournament already in the semis against a really good Wright State team that was supposed to win this league.  The Raiders knocked off Oakland with no problem on Friday night to set up this excellent semifinal.

7 people (Chris, Colton, Dave Doogan, Stri, Stumpf, WaTers) have Wright State here, with Stumpf as the only one picking them to win the tournament.  Lohse and Teddy have already lost this game with Youngstown.  The other 16 people all have CSU, with GrossSr, Lazarow, Mac, and Scoot all taking the Vikings to win this tournament.

Wright State 68 – Cleveland State 63

#1 Green Bay vs #5 Milwaukee
The nightcap finally welcomes the home team to the fray, as regular season champs, Green Bay finally enter the tournament to take on heated rival, Milwaukee.  Green Bay has had an extraordinary season and is a team that many look at as a real sleeper in the next tournament…if they get there.  Besides going 14-2 to win a pretty decent Horizon, the Phoenix also knocked off UVA and nearly beat Wisconsin in the noncon.  If you have never seen GB play, find them if for nothing else Kiefer Sykes is worth the price of admission – he’s that good.  They also have a 7-footer, Alex Brown, who shoots nearly 60% from the floor.  This team is rock solid.  But, one of their two conference losses came at home by double-digits to this very Milwaukee team back on Feb 8.  The Panthers, who beat Detroit and Valpo pretty handily to get here are ready.  This could be a war between two teams that plain don’t like each other.

Lazarow and Scoot would pull off an amazing run with Milwaukee if they can win again Saturday – neither of them have UWM winning the tournament, though.  19 people have Green Bay winning here; 18 of them have them going on to win the tournament.

Milwaukee 73 – Green Bay 66 (OT)

QUARTERFINALS (March 7th – 12 points each)

#4 Valparaiso vs #5 Milwaukee Two teams that had to win home games on Tuesday will play on Green Bay’s homecourt Friday night for the right to play the hosts in the semis on Saturday.  Valpo struggled surprisingly against last place UIC, but survived.  Milwaukee, on the other hand, were impressive in taking out a decent Detroit team.

Colton, Lazarow, and Scoot have Milwaukee here, with the latter two picking them to beat Green Bay on Saturday, too.  GrossJr, Lynch, and Teddy have already lost this game with Detroit.  The other 19 all have Valpo.  PapaCim and WaTers have the most to lose here, as they have Valpo winning this tournament.  GrossSr and Mac have them going to the finals.

Milwaukee 74 – Valparaiso 57

#3 Wright State vs #6 Oakland Travis Bader’s brilliant shooting and Coach Kampe’s brilliant inbounds play design saved Oakland’s season against Youngstown State and set up this quarterfinal date with Wright State.  Bader is one of the best players that no one’s ever heard of, but he’s three wins from being 2014’s Nate Wolters.  But, first in line is a Wright State team that was picked to win the Horizon.  It’s not like Wright was all that underperforming (inconsistent, maybe), it’s that Green Bay and Cleveland State were far better than expected.  But, Wright did get a huge win over Valpo last week that clinched them the 3-seed and a first-round bye.  While the Raiders don’t have anyone on the level of Bader, they are a deep and balanced team that can overwhelm you on defense.  This should be a really good game from which we will know who moves on to face #2 Cleveland State in Saturday’s semifinal.

6 people (GrossSr, J, Lazarow, Lynch, Mac, Scoot) have Oakland in a nice upset pick, though none have them any further.  Lohse and Teddy have already lost this game with Youngstown.  The other 17 all have Wright here, including Stumpf, who has them going all the way.  6 others (Chris, Colton, Dave, Doogan, Stri, WaTers) have them reaching the finals.

Wright State 73 – Oakland 57

OPENING ROUND (March 4th – 6 points each)

#4 Valparaiso vs #9 Illinois-Chicago Valpo was in really good shape to at least grab the single-bye that accompanies the 3-seed in the tournament, but they lost a tough road game at Wright State and then closed out the season with a home loss to Cleveland State, forcing them into this opening round.  Fortunately, they have a home game against a UIC team that went 1-15 in conference play.  If there’s a silver lining for the Flames, it’s that that one win was a shocking 22-point win just this Wednesday on the road at Milwaukee.  The winner of this game will face the winner of the 5/8 game for the right to play #1 Green Bay on their home floor in the semis on Saturday night.

Not surprisingly, no one took the terrible UIC here on the road.  Valpo has some decent support, as GrossSr and Mac have them beating Green Bay before losing in the finals, and PapaCim and Waters have the Crusaders winning the whole thing.

Valparaiso 73 – Illinois-Chicago 63
Freshman forward Alec Peters went 10-11 from the field (2-3 from 3-point land) to lead the Crusaders to a surprisingly difficult 73-63 win over a really bad Flames team. Everyone got this one right, including PapaCim and Waters, who kept alive their Horizon champions.  GrossSr and Mac keep a finalist alive.

#5 Milwaukee vs #8 Detroit Milwaukee was the feel-good story of the Horizon through 14 of their 16 conference games.  Then, Wednesday night, they suffered the biggest head-scratcher of the season in the Horizon when last-place UIC came into their building and blew them out.  They recovered, though, and beat Detroit on the road on Friday to close out the season at 7-9 and grab the 5-seed, despite preseason prognostications picking them to finish last.  Now, they get a home game against that very Detroit team, who stumbled down the stretch, losing their last 3.  The Titans can rise up, though, as they are the only Horizon team to beat Green Bay, Wright, and Valpo this year.  The winner here will face the winner of the 4/9 game in Friday’s quarters for a shot at #1 Green Bay on Saturday.

Considering it’s only the First Tuesday, this is actually a sneakily gigantic CTC game in this 3x tournament.  Despite a 3-seed difference and homecourt advantage, the majority of the field has Milwaukee getting upset here.  Only 10 people (Alexi, Caleb, Colton, Gersh, Lazarow, PapaCim, Scoot, Stri, Stritts, Waters) have UWM here.  Colton has them going to the semis; Lazarow and Scoot have them going all the way to the finals.  The other 15 people have Detroit in an upset that could net them a quick two dozen points.  GrossJr, Lynch, and Teddy went a step further and have the Titans winning again in the quarters.  Big swing game, to say the least.

Milwaukee 83 – Detroit 73
The surprisingly excellent season for Milwaukee will continue in the quarterfinals in Green Bay on Friday, as they end a disappointing season for the Titans.  The Panthers opened up a big lead in the first half and staved off a couple Detroit runs to advance to the weekend’s festivities, which will include a Friday night game against Valpo. This was, as elaborated on above, a huge CTC game that went to the Panthers.  Only 10 people hit this, including Colton, who saves a semifinalist, and Lazarow and Scoot, who saved finalists.

#6 Oakland vs #7 Youngstown State Oakland’s first season in the Horizon was a year of near-misses and thoughts of what could have been.  The roster has a lot of talent, but they understandingly struggled a little dealing with the unknown of new road trips, new styles of play, and just a general uptick in overall talent on the opposing side.  They also played a BRUTAL non-conference slate, so maybe the losing carried over.  But, they have righted the ship lately and enter the tournament as a bit of a sleeper.  They got a HUGE win on Saturday to close out the regular season at Youngstown State to ensure that this 6/7 matchup would be played in their house, not YSU.  The Penguins were up and down as well this year – at times looking like potential title contenders and others look more like bottom-dwellers.  Unfortunately for them, they have looked more like the latter lately, losing 5 of their last 6, with the only win an OT win at home over Milwaukee.  The winner of this game will travel to Green Bay for a Friday night quarterfinal against #3 Wright State.

9 people (Alexi, Chris, GrossJr, Lohse, PapaCim, Stritts, Stumpf, Teddy, Waters) went with the mild YSU upset pick.  Lohse and Teddy are trying to corner the market on the Penguins, as they have them going to the finals – two rounds further than anyone else has them. 6 people (GrossSr, J, Lazarow, Lynch, Mac, Scoot) have Oakland beating Wright State in the quarters, but none have them beating Cleveland State in the semis.

Oakland 96 – Youngstown State 92 (OT)
ABSOLUTE MADNESS!  Travis Bader single-handedly kept his amazing career going by scoring FIVE POINTS IN THE FINAL :02 SECONDS to send the game to OT – and, if you know anything about Oakland basketball over the past four years, you are not surprised at all.  Bader – who has scored nearly 2,500 points, including more than 700 3-pointers, in his incredible Golden Grizzly career – dropped 39 in total, including 18-18 from the FT line.  Bader and the rest of the Oakland team move on to the quarters in Green Bay to take on 3rd-seeded Wright State.  This loss has to be just DEVASTATING for the Penguins, who led by 4 with :08 seconds left, and now they’re heading home with their season over. This loss is also devastating to Lohse and Teddy, who had the Penguins going to the Horizon finals.  7 others missed out on the mild upset.  6 people keep alive the dream of Oakland reaching the semifinals.

CTC UPDATE

Championship Picks

• #1 Green Bay (18)
• #2 Cleveland State (4) – GrossSr, Lazarow, Mac, Scoot
• #3 Wright State (1) – Stumpf
• #4 Valparaiso (2) – PapaCim, Waters

Biggest Upsets

• R1 – #8 Detroit (many)
• QF -#8 Detroit (GrossJr, Lynch, Teddy)
• SF – #7 Youngstown State (Lohse, Teddy)

Previous CTC Champions

• 2008 – Waters
• 2009 – Bry
• 2010 – Doogan, Teddy (perfect)
• 2011 – Bry (perfect)
• 2012 – Lohse
• 2013 – Caleb

Final 2014 Scores

1. Colton – 81 (’14)
   
2. Primm – 66
3. Dave – 57
4. Doogan – 57 (’10*)
5. WaTers – 57 (’08)
6. Lazarow – 54
7. Scoot – 54
8. Stri – 54
9. Chris – 51
10. Stumpf – 51
11. RDoc – 33
12. Stritts – 33
13. Caleb – 30 (’13)
14. Gersh – 30
15. Alexi – 24
16. Becks – 24
17. Bry – 24 (’09, ’11*)
18. PapaCim – 24
19. GrossJr – 18
20. GrossSr – 12
21. J – 12
22. Lynch – 12
23. Mac – 12
24. Lohse – 6 (’12)
25. Teddy – 6 (’10*)