Harbaugh May Not Have Deserved Ravens Job

harbaughToday, the Ravens hired Eagles secondary coach John Harbaughas their new head coach, signing him to a four-year contract.  Harbaugh is seen as the Ravens second choice, as they reportedly offered the job to Dallas offensive coordinator Jason Garrett before Garrett decided to stay in Dallas.

I’m happy for Harbaugh.  This was his first year as the secondary coach after spending seven seasons as the Eagles special-teams coach.  The Eagles were horrible on special teams when he got the job, and he really turned it around and made it a strength for the team. 

I have mixed feelings about this hire though, for a couple of reasons.  One, as an Eagles fan, I feel like we shouldn’t be having our assistant coaches raided right now.  We’re 24-24 over the last three seasons, and someone just hired our special teams/secondary coach to be their head coach.  That doesn’t seem right, does it?  Don’t the Patriots have a guy pushing a mop somewhere that might be a better fit?

Also, on a less selfish/more serious note, does John Harbaugh reallydeserve a head coaching job?  Now, I’ll be the first to admit that I don’t know how a lot of coaches become “hot” candidates.  At this time last year, Jason Garrett was just some career third-string quarterback getting a shot in coaching, and now, apparently, he’s the next Vince Lombardi.  I’m not saying he won’t be a really good head coach, I’m just saying I don’t understand the process through which so many teams became convinced that he was the next great one.  But at least Garrett was offensive coordinator for the best offense in the NFC this year (and played in the league, unlike Harbaugh).  Did Sean Considine do something in the Eagles secondary this year that made the Ravens say, “Wow, who’s coaching thatguy, we need him running the whole show down here!”?  Or were they just so impressed with the way the Eagles set their wedge on kick returns under Harbaugh that they saw a future head coach?  It all just doesn’t really add up to me.

So, my real problem with this hiring is that there’s tons of way more qualified candidates out there than John Harbaugh.  Unfortunately for them, their father wasn’t a college head coach and their brother wasn’t an NFL quarterback and current head coach at Stanford.  I’ll stop with the implications and just say it: this hiring stinks of nepotism.  You can look around the league and find a lot of coaches that have been successful offensive/defensive coordinators or assistant head coaches that have never been given a shot as a head coach.

To make matters worse, there’s the still all-too-obvious lack of black head coaches.  It’s been much publicized, but in a league with roughly 70% black players, less than 20% of the head coaches (6 out of 32) were black this season.  A year caldwellafter the first two black head coaches reached the Super Bowl, there still seems to be little progress.  It’s not as if there aren’t qualified candidates.  There are a bunch of black coaches that are more qualified than Harbaugh, including 49ers assistant head coach Mike Singletary, Colts defensive coordinator Ron Meeks, and Vikings defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier.  Another well qualified black candidate, Colts assistant head coach Jim Caldwell, withdrew his name from consideration for the Ravens and Falcons openings, with many people speculating he did so because he is next in line for the Colts head coaching position when Tony Dungy retires.  However, there has been speculation that Caldwell withdrew because he didn’t think he was seen as a legitimate candidate and was “tired of being the ‘token’ African-American interviewed for head coaching jobs around the league”, as Mike Preston wrote for the Baltimore Sun.

Harbaugh may end up being very successful with the Ravens and I’m disappointed that the Eagles lost a solid assistant coach, but if I were running the Ravens, he’s not the man I would’ve hired.    

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Rooting for the Pats?

It’s official, I’m bitter.  I pride myself on not being a typical Philly fan.  As the name of this site suggests, I’m optimistic about my teams.  I try not to be unrealistic, but I generally expect good things.  I like to like my teams and root for the players on those teams, not against them (a novel concept, I know).  I’ve always been this way and I’m pretty sure I always will be. 

I became old enough to actually follow sports around 1988, which means I’ve hit the unofficial 20-year mark as a Philly sports fan.  As everyone knows, I’ve seen a lot of losing, and I’ve seen zero championships.  There are silver linings to the situation.  Die-hard Philly fans carry a badge of honor at this point.  You don’t come across any fake fans with a Phillies hat on.  There’s a lot to be said for enjoying the journey and not just the destination.

All that being said, I realized this afternoon one of the negative effects of 20 years without a champion: I’m now a bitter harrisonsports fan.  I came across a poll on ESPN.com that asked “What Super Bowl matchup do you want to see?”.  I picked the Chargers-Packers and was a little surprised to see the vast majority of fans want to see the Patriots win on Sunday.  Is everyone else not as bitter as me?  The average fan is rooting for a team to win its fourth Super Bowl in the last seven years?  Most people will be disappointed to see the perfect, almighty, best-team-in-history Pats fall flat on their faces in the AFC title game?  Not me!

Honestly, I don’t want to see anyone get too much of something that I haven’t gotten any of.  I know that’s a bit selfish, but not totally.  Even though the  Brett Favre coverage would get really annoying, I would be really happy for the fans in Wisconsin if they got another Super Bowl win.  I had no problem at all with the Colts and Steelers winning championships the last two years, because those fans deserved it.  What does Boston deserve at this point?  I think something resembling the past 20 years in Philadelphia might be a good start.  So, on Sunday, I’ll be hoping Phil Rivers and Ladainian Tomlinson are healthy, rooting for every call to go San Diego’s way, and praying that every tipped Tom Brady pass drops softly into the arms of a Charger defender.  This is life as a bitter sports fan.  It’s not that bad.  I just wish they weren’t so damn good.   

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Random Stuff

NFL:

Phil Sheridan writes in today’s Inquirer that the success of the Giants and the Packers shows that the Eagles may not be that far off from getting ‘back to the top’.  He argues that coming into the season, no one would have put either team in the NFC Championship Game and that if the Giants can do it with Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin, then surely the Birds have aeagle chance with Donovan McNabb and Andy Reid.  In one sense, I think he’s right.  I don’t think the Giants were substantially better than the Eagles this season.  But I think Sheridan is ignoring one key aspect of this discussion: the weakness of the NFC.  Sure, the Eagles may be close, as currently assembled, to getting back to the NFC Championship Game or even the Super Bowl, but are they close to competing with the likes of New England, Indy, or San Diego?  As far as I know, the ‘top’ means winning a championship.  The Eagles have plenty of needs to fill if they’re going to get there.

Speaking of which, Cal WR DeSean Jackson declared for the draft today.  I wonder if Reid noticed?

 College Hoops:

Last week it was argued on this site that the Atlantic-1o is not a ‘mid-major’.  That debate hit the mainstream this week, when Xavier turned down Rivals.com’s award to guard Drew Lavender for ‘Mid-Major Player of the Week’, contending that there is nothing ‘mid’ about their program.  In support of the decision, A-10 commissioner Linda Bruno suggested that Rivals.com not give the award to any A-10 players in the future. 

lavenderAs a long time A-10 fan, I’ve never considered the conference a ‘mid-major’, but it definitely isn’t on the level of the Big 6 confernces either, so it’s a tricky debate.  Sometimes there’s a desire to put a label on everything and have concrete categories, but it’s not always that simple.  The Xavier AD makes a convincing argument for his program, but if Xavier is truly a ‘major’, then why did former coaches Skip Prosser and Thad Matta jump to basically mid-level ACC and Big Ten jobs?  Xavier deserves tons of credit for pumping resources into their basketball program and hiring numerous outstanding head coaches, but in the end they’re not quite a major and not quite ‘mid’, just somewhere in between.  The A-10 as a whole is right there with them.

As for the big boys of the sport, it’s looking right now like the NCAA Tourey Selection Commitee may have a very easy time of placing the four #1-seeds when Selection Sunday rolls around.  North Carolina, Memphis, and Kansas are all undefeated and UCLA, with one loss, proved they are still a definite title contender with their rather easy win over previously undefeated Washington St. this past weekend.  It even shapes up easily for the committee as far as which bracket to put each in, with UNC in the East, Memphis in the Southeast, Kansas in the Midwest, and UCLA in the West.  Of course, there’s still a lot of games to be played.

NBA:

The Sixers lost their seventh straight game last night, with an 89-82 loss in San Antonio.  Rumors continue to circulate a millerabout if or when Ed Stefanski will move Andre Miller.  I think Miller will get traded but probably not until next month.  Obviously, they’re going to trade him to free up salary for the off-season, but there’s no point in trading him until they have to, which would be by the February 22 trade deadline.  Until then, it’s nice to have an experienced point guard to run the offense while all the young kids learn the ropes.

             

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The Only One Who Cares: An Australian Open Preview

NOTE:  I wrote this on Sunday, but never finished the 6-part post.  And, yes, all of these predictions were done before the tournament got underway–if you don’t believe me, check out what happened to my predicted semifinalist, Andy Murray, in the first round.  Anyway sorry it took so long to get this out, I hate it when real life gets in the way.  I can’t wait until someone decides to pay me for this stuff (just like when I was 13 and I thought someone would pay me to play 162 games for them at shortstop every year…)

I don’t know if anyone has heard, but there are NFL playoff games today.  I know, I know, it’s hard to focus on multiple sports at the same time, but we need to remember that there are other sporting events that happen, even on unofficial opening day of the professional tennis season.  See if you can tear yourself away from pre-game Australian Open analysis to catch a few snaps of the divisional playoff games because, remember, as excited as you and I may be for the Aussie Open, it does go on for two weeks, so catch some of those NFL games.

Anyway, I know that I might be the only American citizen who even knows that the Australian Open is starting tonight, let alone actually cares enough to watch it, but that isn’t going to stop me from posting some relatively uneducated commentary on one of my absolute favorite sports.

The next five posts (one for each section of the four sections of the draw and then one for the Final 16) will be my Australian Open preview, but keep in mind that it requires a full-time dedication in the United States to really follow tennis because no one cares.  For this reason, I can never be called an “expert,” but, I do feel like I watch enough tennis to informatively preview the major tournaments.  And, even if I am wrong about this, being “informed” has never stopped me before from giving my opinion.

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The Federer Section: Going Out on a Limb

Roger Federer is the best tennis player of all-time.  He is in good shape and ready to go.  Don’t expect an early-round disaster for Roger the Great.  (See that’s why you read BSB–the top-rate analysis and dead-on predictions.) 

EARLY ROUNDS:
Federer (1)
Hartfield
Santoro
Isner
Yes, I am picking Federer to get through the first two round–crazy, I know.  However, don’t be surprised if he doesn’t completely cruise in round 2 against either Jon Isner (who took a set off of him at the US Open) or the shifty Fabrice Santoro.

Tipsarevic
Sirianni
Ascione
Verdasco (25)
25th-seeded Fernando Verdasco should be able to get through his first two rounds, though Janko Tipsarevic is a good up-and-comer from Serbia.

Monaco (21)
Berlocq
Kendrick
Delic
Young Argentine, Juan Monaco may be ready to break on to the scene.  He should have no trouble with Berlocq, but either American, Robbie Kendrick or Amer Delic could give him trouble in the 2nd round.  Either way, I believe Monaco will make it through these two rounds.

Hernandez
Minar
Eschauer
Berdych (13)
Tomas Berdych is solid and should easily get past Eschauer and either Minar or Hernandez.

Blake (12)
Massu
Russell
Fognini
Nicholas Massu is about as tough a first-round matchup as can be expected for a seeded player, but Blake should have enough to get past him and then will actually have an easier 2nd round match, no matter who is the opponent.

Grosjean
Volandri
Haase
Ljubicic (17)
My first early-round upset prediction is Sebastien Grosjean, the tough, but unseeded Frenchman taking out 17-seed Ivan Ljubicic in the 2nd round.

Almagro (27)
Cilic
Vanek
Melzer
Another early round upset I predict will be 27th-seeded Nicholas Almagro going down.  The reason for this is that he will have a tough time with the young Croat, Marin Cilic in Round 1 and then Jurgen Melzer (a really good doubles player, with some singles success) will probably await in Round 2.  I like Melzer to advance to the 3rd Round.

Taik-Lee
Guccione
Economidis
Gonzalez (7)
The guy who gave Federer the best match at the US Open until the Finals, was Fernando Gonzalez.  The confidence of his play in that tournament (which was incredible) should carry him through at least the first two rounds of this tournament, though that 2nd Round match with either Taik-Lee or Guccione will not be a walk in the park.

ROUND 3:
Federer (1) over Verdasco (25)
Roger should have no problem beating Verdasco and moving on to the Round of 16.  Surprise, surprise

Monaco (21) over Berdych (13)
Like I said, I like this to be a breakout tournament for Juan Monaco, as he moves on to the Round of 16.  Unfortunately, the Great Federer awaits.

Blake (12) over Grosjean
This will not be an easy match, by any stretch, for the 12th-seeded American, but I think Grosjean’s recent injuries may affect his fitness.  I like Blake to advance, but it won’t be in straight sets.

Gonzalez (7) over Melzer
A bit of a break for Gonzalez, as I believe Melzer gives it his all in beating Almagro in Round 2.  Gonzalez should cruise into the Round of 16.

ROUND OF 16 QUALIFIERS FROM THIS SECTION:
Federer (1)
Monaco (21)
Blake (12)
Gonzalez (7)

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The Djokovic Section: My Personal Favorite

Though the other sections may have more star-power or intrigue, my favorite section of the draw is the Djokovic Section because they put just about every player that I enjoy watching in the same section.

EARLY ROUNDS:
Djokovic (3)
Becker
Ram
Bolelli
Though he drew B. Becker from Germany in the Opening Round, Benjamin is no Boris.  Becker’s highlight of his career was defeating Andre Agassi in his last ever professional match.  It should remain the highlight, as Djokovic begins what should be a phenomenal year for this incredible talent.

Querrey
Rochus
Malisse
Tursunov (32)
Though I think Tursunov and Malisse are the 2 best players of these four, I am picking Olivier Rochus to make it to the 3rd Round because the Tursunov-Malisse match might be a war, and Rochus should breeze by the young American, Sam Querrey, thus giving him more of a chance to rest going into the 2nd Round match.

Hewitt (19)
Darcis
Istomin
Lacko
My all-time favorite athlete, in any sport, is Lleyton Hewitt.  I absolutely LOVE watching him play and root for him as hard as I root for the Eagles or Phillies.  And, I couldn’t be more happy with his early draw.  None of the above players will even give Hewitt a match (especially in his native Australia), which means he should be completely rested going into his first test.  (Don’t worry, there should be plenty more on Lleyton Hewitt as long as I am still writing for BSB.)

Gulbis
Safin
Johansson
Baghdatis (15)
Another example of why I love this section so much.  Marat Safin and Marcos Baghdatis are two of my favorite players on tour and I would love to see them duke it out in Round 2.  However, Baghdatis better bring his game in Round 1 because Thomas Johansson has been a force on the tour (ranked as high as #7) and is one of only 3 players in the field that has actually won this tournament (2002).  Because of this brutal first-round matchup for either Johansson or Baghdatis, I think Safin (the other non-Federer player in the draw to have won this tournament) will be in better shape to move on to Round 3.  It is unbelievable that, though there are only three players in this draw that have won this title before, 15th-seeded Marcos Baghdatis will probably have to beat TWO of them just to reach the 3rd round!  I like Safin to advance.

Nalbandian (10)
Smeets
Zabaleta
Luczak
David Nalbandian is another one of my favorite players on tour and, despite a pretty solid Zabaleta in the 2nd round, should have no trouble moving on to Round 3.

Jones
Montanes
Kiefer
Ferrero (22)
I know this is getting crazy, but I love watching Juan-Carlos Ferrero play and he, too, is in this draw.  Though Nicolas Kiefer is a grizzled veteran, Ferrero is in the best shape he has been in since a rash of injuries has hobbled him in the past 3 or 4 years.  Ferrero should advance.

Stepanek (30)
Spadea
Gremelmayr
Roitman
This is really going out on a limb, but I like Vincent Spadea not only to beat 30th-seeded Radek Stepanek, but to move on again and reach Round 3.  Spadea is a wily veteran, who is playing in his 11th Australian Open.  Either way, that first-round matchup with Stepanek is one of the most intriguing first-round matchups.

Ventura
Del Potro
Roger-Vasselin
Ferrer (5)
And just when you were getting tired of me saying how much I loved this section, we come to the “Next Lleyton Hewitt.”  With Hewitt getting older and his skills are deteriorating, I needed someone to whom he could pass the torch and become my tennis rooting interest.  Well, David Ferrer (whose game strongly resembles Hewitt’s in his prime) is the guy.  I will be rooting hard for Ferrer, as he should cruise through the first two rounds.

ROUND 3:
Djokovic (3) over Rochus
No problem for Novak, as he should reach the Round of 16 without even being threatened of dropping a set.

Hewitt (19) over Safin
Probably my most anticipated match of the 3rd Round, regardless of whether it’s Safin, Baghdatis or even Johansson.  This should be a war, but Hewitt always seems to do well against Safin because he gets quickly frustrated by Lleyton’s quickness.  Baghdatis, on the other hand, probably has a better chance to beat Lleyton when all is equal, but he should be coming off wars with Johansson and Safin, whereas Hewitt should cruise to this round.  Regardless, I like the Aussie to advance to the Round of 16 in front of his home fans.

Nalbandian (10) over Ferrero (22)
In another match that I can’t wait to watch, I think David Nalbadian should edge Ferrero, strictly on fitness.  Expect 5 hard-fought, brutal sets, but Nalbandian just may be in better shape at this point in their careers.

Ferrer (5) over Spadea
Ferrer should cruise through this round as well, even if it is Stepanek.  A relatively easy trip to the Round of 16 is exactly what David Ferrer is looking for to go after his first Grand Slam title.

ROUND OF 16 QUALIFIERS FROM THIS SECTION:
Djokovic (3)
Hewitt (19)
Nalbandian (10)
Ferrer (5)

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The Davydenko Section: Wide Open

Maybe because this section doesn’t have anyone named Roger, Rafa or Novak, but I believe that this part of the draw may get a little crazy and could open up a path for a trip to the semis for a relative unknown or young gun.

EARLY ROUNDS:
Gasquet (8)
Lindhal
Lopez
Odesnik
Richard Gasquet is playing some really good tennis these days.  He should get a test in Round 2 from Feliciano Lopez, but the Spaniard is just too inconsistent to really expect him to take out Gasquet.  The Frenchman should move on to Round 3.

Vliegen
Patience
Pavel
Andreev (31)
One Frenchman deserves another, as I expect Olivier Patience to make it to the 3rd Round because of the Eastern Europeans, Andrei Pavel and Igor Andreev, battle that is sure to take place in Round 1.  Patience should move on.

Chela (18)
Garcia-Lopez
Falla
Anderson
Though extremely inconsistent, I do not see anyone in this group that can beat Juan-Ingecio Chela, so he should move on.

Warburg
Brzezicki
Tsonga
Murray (9)
Though he got a really tough opening-round draw in the extremely athletic Frenchman, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, I believe that Andy Murray is ready for a breakout Grand Slam.  This could be the year of multiple semifinals for Murray, possibly starting in Melbourne.  Either way, I like Murray to advance in a tough 1st Round match, but a relatively easy 2nd Round match.

Youzhny (14)
Montcourt
Levy
Seppi
I never understood why Mikhail Youzhny could never crack the top 10.  This might the the year.  Either way, he should cruise through the first two rounds here.

Sela
Slanar
Baker
Karlovic (20)
One of the best servers on tour, Ivo Karlovic looks ready to become an all-around solid player on tour and should be a consistent top 20 player.  I don’t know if he’s ready to break out here in Australia, but look for him at Wimbledon.  Either way, look for him here to at least get to Round 3.

Wawrinka (26)
Benneteau
Lu
Gicquel
I will talk more about the young Swiss player, Stanislas Wawrinka, but this is what I was talking about as far as a great opportunity in this section of the draw.  I expect Wawrinka to advance out of Round 2 and then see what he can do from there.

Mahut
Acasuso
Llodra
Davydenko (4)
Though he may have tough matches against both Llodra and Acasuso, I don’t think Davydenko should have any problem making it through to Round 3.

ROUND 3:
Gasquet (8) over Patience
Gasquet is just a lot better than his fellow countryman and should move easily into the Round of 16.

Murray (9) over Chela (18)
This may be the time for Andy Murray, as I said earlier.  Look for him to move at least into the Round of 16.

Youzhny (14) over Karlovic (20)
Again, I think Youzhny has top 10 talent.  Here is where he may prove me right.  Youzhny should move easily into the Round of 16.

Wawrinka (26) over Davydenko (4)
Maybe I pre-empted this with all my talk of “wide open section” and “time is right for a up-and-comer,” but this is the big upset I predict in the first 3 rounds.  I like the Federer protege to defeat the #4 player in the world and advance to the Round of 16.

ROUND OF 16 QUALIFIERS FROM THIS SECTION:
Gasquet (8)
Murray (9)
Youzhny (14)
Wawrinka (26)

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The Nadal Section: Heading Towards a Showdown

The intrigue in this section is probably going to be delayed a week or so.  There are two big guns at the top and bottom of the section and then a whole lot of road bumps on the way to a possible Roddick-Nadal quarterfinal.

EARLY ROUNDS:
Roddick (6)
Diouhy
Young
Berrer
Watch out for the 19-year old American Donald Young.  The Atlanta native who is the first of probably a wave of inner-city African-Americans who watched the Williams sisters their whole lives and are ready to burst onto the American tennis scene.  Young is incredibly gifted and ready for the big-time.  Unfortunately, he draws Roddick in Round 2…oh, that and he’s only 19.

Korolev
Granollers-Pujol
Karanusic
Kohlschreiber (29)
There is a real stir about Philipp Kohlschreiber, coming off his performance in Auckland.  Because of this hype and the fact that I know absolutely nothing about any of the other three players in this portion, I expect Kohlschreiber to cruise through on to Round 3.

Nieminen (24)
Dancevic
Levine
Vassallo Arguello
Jarkko Nieminen has been around long enough to know how to get through the players he is supposed to beat.  Don’t expect an upset in either of his first two round matches.

Fish
Pashanski
Zverev
Roberdo (11)
You always have to root for Mardy Fish because of his demeanor and how much he loves the game of tennis.  However, Tommy Robredo is just a whole lot better at it and should move on.

Moya (16)
Koubek
Horna
Calleri
How much longer can Carlos Moya prolong this “rejuvenation.”  The former world’s #1 has no made a comeback longer and better than most people would have expected.  However, you have to think that he will eventually actually show his age and the miles on that body will take their toll.  But, until I see it, I will continue to believe in Carlos Moya and his “Spanish Courage.”

Capdeville
Klein
Hanescu
Mathieu (23)
The French tennis revolution should continue on schedule, as I don’t see anyone capable of upsetting Paul-Henri Mathieu in either of the first two rounds.

Simon (28)
Reynolds
Clement
Schuettler
A couple more Frenchman will be on display in this grouping.  The young gun, Giles Simon and the old veteran, Arnaud Clement.  However, I like the German, Rainer Schuettler, to crash the party, beat both of the Frenchman (young and old) and make it out of this grouping.

Serra
Mayer
Troicki
Nadal (2)
With my patented courage, I am picking Rafael Nadal not only to get out of Round 1, but also to advance through Round 2.  The surprises never end, huh?

ROUND 3:
Roddick (6) over Kohlschreiber (29)
As well as this Kohlschreiber may be playing and as vulnerable as Andy Roddick always is in Australia, I just think that Roddick has matured enough to avoid the Down Under Upset that seems to plague him every January.  I like Roddick to advance to the Round of 16.

Robredo (11) over Nieminen (24)
I credited Nieminen’s experience with his avoiding the early round upset, and now I credit his “experience” for his rolling over against Tommy Robredo.  The younger, faster, better Robredo should advance to the Round of 16.

Moya (16) over Mathieu (23)
Again, until I see some sign of age on Carlos Moya, I will continue to believe that he is on his way back to prominence.  I look for Moya to move past Mathieu, in a hard fought 3rd Round match.

Nadal (2) over Schuettler
As much as I like Rainer Schuettler, Rafa should have no problems here.

ROUND OF 16 QUALIFIERS FROM THIS SECTION:
Roddick (6)
Robredo (11)
Moya (16)
Nadal (2)

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The Sweet 16: Is Anyone Better Than ‘The Best?’

ROUND OF 16 MATCHES:
Federer (1) over Monaco (21)
A great run ends here in the Round of 16 for Juan Monaco.  Federer is just too fast, too strong, too experienced…too good.  He will be playing in the quarterfinals.  No reason to hang your head though, Juan, it was a strong performance this year.

Gonzalez (7) over Blake (12)
I think that not only has Gonzalez had an easier road to this point than Blake, but he is just playing better tennis at this point.  Expect Gonzalez to move on and set up a rematch with Federer in the quarters.

Hewitt (19) over Djokovic (3)
Maybe this is my heart and not my head, but I really think that this might be Lleyton’s last good chance to win his home major.  He has won Wimbledon and the US Open, but never here in Melbourne.  The crowd might be enough to propel Lleyton to an upset in this incredibly tough match, moving him into the quarterfinals.

Ferrer (5) over Nalbandian (10)
I predict that the “New Lleyton” will have just enough to get past David Nalbandian, setting up a quarterfinal matchup with the “Original Lleyton.”  I would be shocked if this match did not go 5 sets and 5+ hours.  Settle in for some INCREDIBLE shot-making and a ridiculous display of professional athleticism and fitness.  This match should have it all, with Ferrer finding just one more gear than Nalbandian.

Murray (9) over Gasquet (8)
Another heart-breaking loss for Team France, as the Englishman Andy Murray moves on to the quarterfinals.  I think Murray’s serve might make the slightest difference and enable him to move past the strong, talented Frenchman.

Wawrinka (26) over Youzhny (14)
I expect the surprise of the tournament to continue to be Stanislas Wawrinka.  As good as I think Youzhny is, he does seem to get rattled by the bright lights and the pressure of late-round Grand Slam matches.  I like Wawrinka to surprise everyone with a date with Andy Murray in the most surprising quarterfinal matchup.

Robredo (11) over Roddick (6)
Though I am most excited about the Hewitt-Ferrer potential quarterfinal, the rest of the tennis world is raving about the Roddick-Nadal possible matchup.  However, I think that the world may be let down–again–by Andy Roddick because I like the Spaniard, Tommy Robredo to move on into the quarters.

Nadal (2) over Moya (16)
A battle of Spaniards pits the #2 Nadal against his childhood idol, Carlos Moya.  Nadal has not shown any nerves in their first several meetings, owning Moya whenever I have seen them play.  I do not expect this to be any different, and I see Nadal moving on to face yet another Spaniard in the quarterfinal round.

QUARTERFINALS:
Federer (1) over Gonzalez (7)
Gonzalez will probably never play as well as he played in the first two sets of his match against Federer in last year’s US Open–and he only split those sets.  Federer then figured him and out and Gonzalez returned to earth.  I expect Federer to continue to cruise and probably go into the semis without dropping a set.

Hewitt (19) over Ferrer (5)
The Australian fans.  The urgency of Hewitt to finally win an Australian Open.  Ferrer’s exhausting Round of 16 match against David Nalbandian.  All of these things point to yet another “homer” pick of mine.  I like Hewitt to move into the semifinals and a shot at Roger Federer.

Murray (9) over Wawrinka (26)
And the dream of an all-Swiss final ends here, as Andy Murray completes his breakout party and officially declares his arrival on tour, with a semifinal appearance in Melbourne.  I do not think this will be easy, but I like the hard-serving Brit over the hard-serving Swiss.

Nadal (2) over Robredo (11)
Disposing of his 2nd straight countryman, Nadal should breeze through to another Grand Slam semi.  Like Federer, Nadal may not even lose a set to this point.

SEMIFINALS:
Federer (1) over Hewitt (19)
The Aussie dream ends here, as Roger Federer was too good for Hewitt even during Hewitt’s prime.  And, since then, Roger has only gotten better, while Lleyton has shown his age.  A great run in front of his home fans ends two wins short, as Lleyton goes down to the best player of all-time.

Nadal (2) over Murray (9)
Another Grand Slam dream ends two wins short, as Andy Murray goes down to the superior player, Rafael Nadal in the semifinals.  Nadal is just flat-out too good for Murray, who relies too much on serves and net play to be able to run with Nadal and his incredible return game and passing game.  The real question in the semis is will Federer or Nadal even lose a set by now?

THE FINAL:
Federer (1) over Nadal (2)
Trust me, I really wanted to make the case for Rafael Nadal.  As much as I love dynasties, the dominance of Roger Federer is getting a little old.  However, there is a reason why he is one of the two most dominant athletes in the world today and that is because he is so good at his baseline, and when the stakes get higher, he gets even better.  I think he will win another war with Nadal, but probably not even need the 5th set.  Expect yet another Grand Slam title for the best there that’s ever been.

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Cimorelli’s Question of the Day

PREFACE:  The question is completely hypothetical (and will not influence any actual gambling outside of a Vegas sportsbook), but the following point spreads are real:
Seattle (+8) at GREEN BAY
Jacksonville (+13) at NEW ENGLAND
San Diego (+8.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
New York (+7.5) at DALLAS 

Say, hypothetically, you were in a Vegas casino with $100 and you liked (in order of preference):  New England, Dallas and Indianapolis to all cover this weekend.  Which, of the following options, would you choose to allocate your $100? 

OPTION #1–STRAIGHT UP:  throw $30 on DAL, $50 on NE and $20 on IND (the amounts, obviously can be moved around)
–This option gives us you break-even point with NE.  If NE covers, you can lose both the other two and still break even.  Plus, if you hit NE, then any other victory is profit.  Further, if you lose NE, then you can still break even by hitting both of the other games.

OPTION #2–THE FULL TEASER:  throw all $100 on a 3-team, 6-point teaser, which would give you NE -7, DAL -1.5, IND -2
–You have to hit all 3, but if you do, you make $180 profit.

OPTION #3–THE TEASER-COMBO:  $50 on the aforementioned teaser, $25 on DAL, $15 on NE, $10 on IND
–This means that if you hit the teaser (which gives you point-flexibility), you cannot lose more than $10.  Further, if you hit the teaser, then every game you cover with the full spread is profit.

OPTION #4–THE PARLAY COMBO:  $25 on DAL, $35 on NE, $15 on IND, $25 3-team parlay
–To make any money, you’d have to hit 2 of 3, but if you hit one, you hedge a little of your losses.  Plus, if you hit all 3, you hit a relatively large payday.  Losing them all, obviously costs you all $100.  Hitting only DAL costs $50.  Hitting only NE costs $30.  Hitting only IND costs $70.  Hitting NE & DAL makes $20.  Hitting NE & IND breaks even.  Hitting DAL & IND costs $10.  Now, if you hit all 3, you make $225 profit.

OPTION #5–THE FULL PARLAY:  $100 3-team parlay
–If you hit all 3 games with the regular spreads, you make $600.

OPTION #6–LET IT RIDE:  $100 on NE
–Since NE plays on Saturday, and the other two games you like play Sunday, you decide to just throw $100 on the Pats and then see what happens.  if you win, you then have $200 to play with on the two Sunday games (and, most likely, another Question of the Day column to read).

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