CTC Day 4 Preview

Well, the first three days are the calm before the storm.  Everyone is just jockeying for position, but starting today/tonight is when stuff really starts to move.  This weekend is huge…and this week is only really the “preseason.”  Nine conference tournaments either continue or start tonight, including 4 quarterfinals in the 3x Missouri Valley and 4 opening round games in the 3x Colonial and the 3x WCC.  The 2x Horizon quarterfinals and the A-Sun semis are also tonight.  Tonight could go a long way to see who gets a leg up heading into the big boys.

MISSOURI VALLEY QUARTERFINALS:
Day 2 in St. Louis for “Arch Madness” and we are ready to go with a quadruple-header.  We will see the first appearances of everyone’s favorite, Creighton, and the actual favorite, N. Iowa.  We will also see a couple good games with no teams that had to play in the opening round.

  • #1 Northern Iowa (14-4) vs. #9 Indiana State.  Indiana St., who knocked off Drake last night 62-55, comes back today to face the top-seeded Panthers in a quarterfinal match tonight.  Only Bry and Waters even had ISU in this round, and neither of them had them beating UNI.  But, Waters, J, and Doogan will be rooting for the underdog Sycamores, as they had Drake beating UNI in this round.  Everyone has Creighton winning this whole tournament, so Lynch, Alexi, Stri, and Ina’s pick of UNI in the finals is as far as anyone has them, so this is big for them, in that regard.
  • #2 Creighton (14-4) vs. Wichita StateThe Wichita St. Shockers beat Missouri St. last night by 13 to get themselves to a quarterfinal matchup against #2 Creighton.  Everyone has Creighton winning the whole tournament, so this game means almost nothing in the grand scheme of the CTC.
  • #3 Illinois State (11-7) vs. #6 Evansville (8-10).  A strong Illinois St. team opens against a hot Evansville team tonight in a classic quarterfinal matchup.  J and Doogan both took Evansville in what could be a 6-point upset. Obviously, no one has either team beating Creighton next round, so the points are only up for the taking here.
  • #4 Bradley (10-8) vs. #5 Southern Illinois (8-10).  The Salukis started the season in a tough way, but they are very young and they started to get things going at the end of the season, making them a potential sleeper in this tournament.  Bradley, on the other hand, will not sneak up on anybody.  They are usually rather talented and won 10 conference games this year.  It should be a great game.  Only Lynch and Bry took the Salukis over Bradley.  This game is even bigger for Bry, J, and Waters, as Bry has SIU going to the finals, while J and Waters both have Bradley going to the finals.

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Day 3 Recap: Bry’s Big Day Puts the Top Spot Up for Grabs

A 52-point day yesterday for Bry (12 more than anyone else) took him to within 2 points of overall leader, Ina.  Alexi and J (30 each) and Lynch (28) struggled a bit.  Plus, the first conference 0-‘fer was completed.

DAY 3:
Bry-52
Ina-40
Stri-38
Doogan-36
Waters-32
J-30
Alexi-30
Lynch-28

OVERALL:
Ina-120
Bry-118
Alexi-104
J-96
Waters-96
Stri-82
Doogan-78
Lynch-66

BIG SOUTH SEMIFINALS:
After an all-chalk quarterfinal round, the Big South semis were no different, but despite all the chalk (no upsets yet in the 6 games), only J and correctly predicted the final between #1 Radford and #2 VMI.  Bry is now the only one that can steal this year’s CTC Big South crown from J.

  • #1 Radford 94 – #4 UNC-Asheville 86.  Kenny Thomas (not the former Sixer and Rocket) scored 35 points last night to help the Highlanders stave off a very game UNC-Asheville squad in Radford, VA, last night.  It was only a 3-point game with under a minute to go, but then Radford scored six straight to put the game away.  Everyone except Lynch (who had Winthrop) and Waters had Radford winning this game, but an Asheville win probably would have been welcome for everyone other than Bry and Stri, as they are the only two with them winning it all.
  • # 2 VMI 78 – #3 Liberty 58.  People who said that VMI cannot win in the postseason because of their defense:  take note.  VMI held a good Liberty team to 58 points on 38% shooting and only 5-22 (22%) from 3-point land last night.  It was a blow-out early and they are looking good to maybe steal a bid from #1 Radford on Saturday night.  Most of us had Liberty winning this game (Lynch had Coastal Carolina), so the two that picked it correctly (J and Waters) came up big last night.  They each have VMI going on to win this thing.  Alexi, Doogan, and Ina all lost their Big South champ last night with Liberty going down.  Bry, against his better judgment, went with Liberty, lost it, and cost himself an otherwise-perfect day.

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CTC Day 3 Preview

Day 3 is going to be an interesting day.  The Big South is playing their semifinals; the Atlantic Sun quarters conclude (after starting last night); the NEC debuts with its quarterfinal round; and, the 3x tournament in the Missouri Valley (the “Arch Madness”) opens tonight with their opening round games.

BIG SOUTH SEMIFINALS:
Two nights ago, on Day 1, the Big South played their 4 quarterfinal games.  They took a day off and now they have their two semifinal games on Radford University.  Last year, Stri (42), Alexi (38), and J (38) performed best in this conference.  Bry (20) and Waters (16) performed the worst.  As for the quarterfinal rounds, only Lynch lost a finalist–he actually lost both of his and is finished–and Ina and Waters were perfect in the quarters.

  • #1 Radford vs. #4 UNC-Asheville.  Other than Lynch (who had Winthrop winning this game), everyone except Waters has Radford moving on to the finals.  Waters would pull a big win if UNC-Asheville pulls the upset.  Radford is coming off a shellacking of High Point, while UNC-Asheville beat a tough Winthrop team.
  • #2 VMI vs. #3 Liberty.  This game is going to be great in both a basketball context and a CTC context.  VMI was 13-5 in conference play and Liberty was only a game back at 12-6.  They also split their two regular season games.  As far as the CTC goes, this game is going to go a long way in determining the winner of the CTC Big South.  Ina, Doogan, and Alexi all have Liberty winning the whole thing.  Waters and J have VMI winning the whole thing.  Bry and Stri have less of a stake, as they both took Radford to win the whole thing, but for the upset points, they both took Liberty to win this game.  A very important game in the context of the 2009 CTC Big South titleholder.

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CTC Day 2 Recap: Alexi Moves into Second Place with Near-Perfect Day

Alexi only missed one game last night, including coming up with a nice upset pick.  But, the leader, Ina, also only missed one game, so he was not able to take over the lead.  It was a pretty exciting night on the hardwood.

SUN BELT OPENING ROUND:
Five games in the Sun Belt last night, all on home floors led to some real exciting basketball.  Despite the fact that four of the five home teams did prevail, all five were very competitive.  The biggest margin of victory last night was 9 points.  Ina and Alexi both went 5-for-5 last night, including picking the mild upset.  Stri had the worst showing, only getting 2 correct.  No one took major damage, as everyone still has their 4 semifinalists remaining in this bracket.

  • #4 N. Texas 79 – #5 Florida-Atlantic 73.  The big upset pick by Bry and Waters scared the other competitors, as FAU got within 2 points with 48 seconds left, but the #4 seed held on at home for a 6-point victory.  Waters loses a bit more, as he had FAU winning two games in this tournament.  Stri dodged a bullet, as he has N. Texas going to the finals.
  • #5 Middle Tennessee St. 69 – #12 Arkansas St. 62.  Another big upset was narrowly avoided, as Arkansas St. could not hold on to a second-half lead at MTSU.  Doogan, Lynch, and Stri all missed out on this upset pick, with Doogan and Lynch losing a semifinalist in Arkansas St.  MTSU holding on is good for Bry, who has them moving on to the semis.
  • #6 S. Alabama 62 – #11 New Orleans 60.  Our first hint of Madness this March came in Mobile, AL, as Domonic Tilford hit two free throws with :07 seconds left to break the tie and send the Jaguars into the quarterfinals.  These free throws helped Bry and J the most, as they have S. Alabama in the semis.  They hurt Stri and Waters, costing them the upset points for this game.  Neither of them had UNO going past the quarters, though.
  • #7 Denver 66 – #10 Louisiana-Monroe 57.  Another hard-fought tight game that was eventually won by the home team, as Denver moves on into the second round to face #2-seed AR-Little Rock.  Only J lost this game, as he had LA-Monroe pulling off the upset.  This was a real good result for Lynch, who is the only one that does not have AR-Little Rock going to the semis–he has Denver there.
  • #9 Florida-International 71 – #8 Louisiana-Lafayette 69.  The Ragin’ Cajuns just could not come back from a 9-point deficit at halftime (FIU shot 62% in the first half), though they gave it a valiant effort on their home floor.  The Golden Panthers hang on and will now face #1 Western Kentucky in the quarterfinals.  Waters, Alexi, J, Ina, and Bry all correctly picked this mild upset.  No one has Western Kentucky losing in the quarters.

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CTC Day 2 Preview: Chasing the Leader

After an upset-starved Day One, we not embark on Day 2.  Ina’s perfect day has put her ahead early and Lynch’s struggles have him behind, but, obviously, there is a LONG way to go.

SUN BELT OPENING ROUND:
Prior to the Big East’s expansion to a 16-team tournament, the Sun Belt held the distinction of being the largest conference tournament in D-1, with 13 teams.  The first round of the Sun Belt tournament remains the largest single-round in all of D-1 conference tournaments–the only round with 5 games.  Those five games all tip-off tonight around the different Sun Belt campuses.  The 13-team format worked out well this year because there were three dominant teams this year (W. Kentucky, AR-Little Rock, and Troy) and this format yields three byes.  The other ten teams play tonight.  Last year, the Sun Belt conference was the only conference that Ina lost, only getting 22 points.  Alexi won the conference with 52 points; Waters was close with 46, and everyone else had 32 or fewer.

  • #13 Florida-Atlantic (2-16) at #4 N. Texas (11-7).  FL-Atlantic only won two conference games all year and are 12.5-point underdogs tonight at N. Texas.  However, Bry and Waters still went with FAU and their notorious coach, Mike Jarvis.  Waters even has this team winning two games.  This game is big for Stri because he has N. Texas going all the way to the finals.
  • #12 Arkansas St. (5-13) at #5 Middle Tennessee St. (10-8).  Arkansas St. was, at one point, 5-4 in conference play.  But, nine losses later, they sit at 5-13 and the #12 seed, travelling to MTSU for a first-round game.  Lynch, Stri, and Doogan all decided that they would not end their season on a 10-game losing streak, as they picked this upset.  Doogan and Lynch even have them winning their quarterfinal game, as well.
  • #11 New Orleans (6-12) at #6 S. Alabama (10-8).  Defending regular-season champs, S. Alabama, struggled to a 6th-place finish this year, but is a good home team.  Waters and Stri both picked New Orleans in this 10-point upset.  This is big for Bry and J, as they have S. Alabama going on and beating Troy in the quarters, before losing in the semis.
  • #10 Louisiana-Monroe (6-12) at #7 Denver (9-9).  UL-Monroe travels to Denver for their first-round game tonight.  Only J thinks that they can go in there and win.  Lynch has Denver going to the semifinals.
  • #9 Florida-International (7-11) at #8 Louisiana-Lafayette (7-11).  Not only is LA-Lafayette at home and favored tonight, but they also have the best nickname in college sports–the Ragin’ Cajuns.  However, it did not sway more than half of us (Bry, Ina, J, Alexi, and Waters) from going with the visiting Golden Panthers.  But, as far as the CTC goes, this game means nothing next round because all 8 of us have W. Kentucky defeating whoever comes out of this matchup.

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CTC Day 1 Recap: Perfect Day for Ina Gets it Going

Ina, no longer an underdog, gets off to a perfect start on Day 1.

DAY 1:
Ina-52
Bry-44
J-44
Waters-44
Alexi-40
Doogan-32
Stri-32
Lynch-24

BIG SOUTH QUARTERFINALS:
A home-court sweep in the Big South semis last night, leads to a final four of the top 4 seeds.  Ina and Waters both go four-for-four, while Lynch, whose bracket has ended here, finished with only 4 points from this conference.

  • #1 Radford 82 – #8 High Point 58.  The top-seeded Highlanders flexed their muscles and hammered a bad High Point team, at home.  Everyone had this pick.  Bry and Stri keep their champion pick alive.
  • #2 VMI 96 – #7 Coastal Carolina 76.  VMI runs and guns its way to a 20-point win that was actually a lot closer at the half.  This must have been a fascinating game, as the two teams combined for 77 three-point attempts.  Doogan, Stri, and Lynch all went for the big upset points with Coastal Carolina.  Lynch, actually had Coastal Carolina in the title game.  J and Waters’s title pick is still alive.
  • #3 Liberty 88 – #6 Gardner-Webb 77.  Liberty started with a 22-4 lead and never looked back.  They led by 15 at the half and held on, despite a late run by G-Webb.  Only Lynch got this one wrong, going for the upset points.  Ina, Doogan, and Alexi keep their title pick alive.
  • #4 UNC-Asheville 76 – #5 Winthrop 68.  Winthrop’s 4-year Big South championship streak has came to an end early this year, and very early in this game, as UNC-Asheville scored the first 14 points at home and never looked back.  This game had pretty big CTC implications, as well.  Only Ina and Waters got this pick correct.  Lynch lost the most here, as he had Winthrop winning the Big South title.  In fact, Lynch is finished in the Big South.

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CTC Day 1 Preview: And, They’re Off…

Well, folks, here we go.  The BSB Conference Tournament Challenge is about to get under way in its first year as part of BSB, but it has a tradition dating back to the mid-90’s, when Bry, Doogan, and J decided that the NCAA Tournament was not enough “madness” in any given March.  So, they decided to pick the major conference tournaments, also.  It then expanded to all the conference tournaments, on a weighted scale.  It then expanded to four players in 2006 when Stri joined, then five players when Ina joined in 2007.  Waters and Alexi made it seven players in 2008, and this year we are pleased to announce that the arrival of Lynch gives us a solid eight contestants.  No, we do not claim to “know what we’re talking about,” especially in some of the minor conferences.  I think I can confidently say that no one in this competition has watched a game from the Big South or the Atlantic Sun all year, but it is a good time, and only being worth 1/5 of the points in the major conferences, these little tournaments are good warm-ups and some completely unwarranted bragging rights (who doesn’t need more things to brag about?).  We are moving the daily “previews” and “recaps” that used to be emails over to BSB this year, so follow along, if you wish, there will be a recap and a preview posted daily for the next two weeks (yes, my employer knows and has completely signed off on this idea).

So, without any further ado (there’s already been too much “ado” already), here is the BSB Conference Tournament Challenge:  Day 1 Preview

BIG SOUTH QUARTERFINALS:
The interest level going in to the Big South season this year took a couple major hits early in this season.  The 4-time defending champion Winthrop Eagles, who were picked to win again this year, lost 18 of their first 24 games.  And, the fascination that is Kenny George, the 7’7″ behemoth at UNC-Asheville missed the entire season because of knee surgery.  Regardless, it should be a good tournament, with regular season champ, Radford being chased by the highest-scoring team in the country, #2 VMI, and a solid Liberty team at #3.  Winthrop won five straight to close the regular season, taking the #5 seed and will face the George-less UNC-Asheville.  Tonight are all four quarterfinal games on the campuses of the higher seeds.

  • #7 Coastal Carolina (5-13) at #2 VMI (13-5).  VMI is averaging over 94 points per game, playing a Phoenix Suns style offense.  It’s fun, but will it work in the postseason.  This is probably the game with the most Challenge implications tonight, as three of us (Doogan, Stri, and Lynch) picked the big upset by Coastal Carolina, while two of us (J and Waters) have VMI winning the whole thing.  Personally, it would be great to see VMI in the Big Dance.
  • #5 Winthrop (9-9) at #4 UNC-Asheville (10-8).  Though UNC-Asheville is favored and at home, only Ina and Waters picked them to beat the 4-time defending Big South champs in this game.  Waters actually has Asheville going to the finals.  Lynch needs Winthrop to win this game, as he has them winning this whole tournament.
  • #8 High Point (4-14) at #1 Radford (15-3).  Everyone picked the top-seeded Highlanders to move on.  Surprisingly, though, only Bry and Stri picked them to win the whole tournament, even though they will be playing it on their home floor all the way through, so the other six are probably rooting for the BIG upset tonight.
  • #3 Liberty (12-6) at #6 Gardner-Webb (9-9).  Lynch is the only one that thinks Gardner-Webb can go into Liberty and win this game.  If it happens, there are some nice upset points for him.  Ina, Doogan, and Alexi may be watching this game closely, as well, as they have Liberty winning this tournament.

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Checking in with the Phils and Birds

On the day before the calendar flips to March, it’s a good time for a non-college basketball post before BSB goes all-hoops, all-the-time, for the next month.  Eagles news has been coming in bunches the last 24 hours as free agency got underway, and just now I flipped on the TV and found a Phillies spring training game on the MLB Network.  I am loving the MLB Network so far, and it could be even better once the season starts.

Notes from the Phils game so far, which is against the Rays, coincidentally:

-The $54 Million Man, Ryan Howard, hit a two-run homer in the first, and that was followed up immediately with a homer by newly acquired outfielder John Mayberry, who is attempting to make the team.

kendrick-Kyle Kendrick has been named the favorite for the 5th spot in the rotation, and he looked solid in his outing today.  Apparently he’s working on a change-up and has been working a little with Cole Hamels on the pitch.  Seems like a good idea.  The Phils released Adam Eaton yesterday, which also seems like a solid idea.

-Apparently Miguel Cairo is now a Phillie.  Hopefully he’s just competing for a roster spot.  He has a home run and a double, but a quick glance at his statistics shows that he hasn’t homered in a game that counted since 2005, when he tallied all of 2 for the Mets.  Big-time prospect Jason Donald just knocked him in with an RBI single.

-Shane Victorino has been added to Team USA for the World Baseball Classic, which I’m happy about.  The Flyin Hawaiian gives me a reason to watch the WBC.

And now turning to the football team:

-It just became official in the last few minutes that Brian Dawkins is gone to the Broncos.  This is pretty devastating news dawkfor all Eagle fans, and we’ll have to wait and see what news comes out about it before putting too much blame on the Eagle front office.  There’s no doubt that Dawkins has lost a step and, at 35, is fairly ancient for an NFL defensive back.  But you have to think that he was worth more to the Eagles, for his leadership and for what he means to the fan base, than to any other team, and if the Broncos thought he was worth a 2-year deal, why didn’t the Eagles get a deal done?  I have to imagine that Dawkins has been feeling slighted by the team, but he’s too classy to come out and say it.  Maybe now that he has a new deal with Denver, the truth will come out.  More on this later…

-The two other notable moves from yesterday were the Eagles’ signing of OT Stacey Andrews, brother of Shawn, and the departure of Correll Buckhalter, also to Denver.  I’m ok with both of these moves.  Andrews, like his brother, is coming off an injury, but it looks as though he will take over at right tackle, and Jon Runyan’s days are probably over.  I’m almost happy about Buckhalter leaving.  Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s a solid player and I have a lot of respect for the way he’s overcome injuries, but he’s 30 years old and has had THREE major knee injuries.  I don’t like the idea of committing money to a guy like that and, also, if Buckhalter is gone, it makes it more likely that the team will go out and get another, possibly more bruising, running back to pair with Westbrook.

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BSB Announcement – The Conference Tourney Challenge

So, every year for the past half-dozen years or so, Doogan, J, and myself have had a running contest to see who could do better in picking all the conference tournament brackets (yes, we pick a lot of games between teams that we haven’t ever seen play a game, let alone know anything about this year’s team).  Ina and Stri joined us a couple years ago; Waters and Alexi joined last year. 

If anyone else is interested, just drop me an email or post a comment here, and I’ll add you to the list.  The scorekeeping is relatively simple:  we pick every conference tournament game and the conferences are weighted by relative “importance.”  For example, points gained in the Big East tournament are worth five times as points gained in the Big South tournament.  There is no money involved, but it is somewhat of a time commitment, as the brackets are not finalized until a day or two before the tournament is held, so it involves a lot of picking of games in a timely fashion.  Again, if anyone else is interested in joining us, let me know.  And, if you just want to follow along, recaps of the previous day’s action and previews of that day’s games–all in relation to the “challenge”–will be posted daily on BSB. 

A lot of smaller conferences’ seasons end this weekend and many tournaments start Tuesday and Wednesday, so final brackets for the first slew of tourneys will be sent out via email by Monday, at the latest. 

With Ina winning two years ago and me last year, we’ll see if anyone can take the crown away from our apartment…

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The Official NFL Preview: BSB-Style (Recap)

As our loyal readers know, we here at BSB do our season previews a little bit differently than any old sports blog.  We have a contest, between Doogan and Bry, that is structured around whether we believe a each NFL team is better or worse than they were a year ago, and how confident we are in those predictions.  It is set up like a draft with all 32 teams in the hopper, and we go in order, selecting the teams we have the most (or least) confidence in their level of improvement (or regression).  For a better understanding of the system, feel free to check out either our NBA preview or our MLB preview, complete with midseason updates and, for the NBA, the final standings.  So, without further ado, we will begin our NFL preview.  Since Doogan had first choice for MLB, Bry will start the NFL.  [NOTE: The tiebreaker usually does not come into play in the NBA or MLB, but it is certainly something to watch out for in the NFL.  We do not have “pushes,” so if the team matches their total from last year, the person who selects them loses the bet, regardless of the direction they chose.  For instance, if you select the Eagles and the OVER, they have to win MORE than 8 games for you to get credit for that selection.]

So, now we are finished a pretty exciting NFL season, in which some teams made MONUMENTAL changes from a year ago.  In fact, I cannot remember an NFL season that was so different from the one directly preceding it.  Anyway, here we go with the final scoring of our annual “Preview Game – NFL.”  As usual, the updates will be in italics, directly following the pick itself–that was made before the season started.

BRY 1.  New England Patriots – UNDER 16 wins:  This is not exactly because I believe that the Patriots will take a large step backwards.  Though I do feel that they are not nearly as good as they were a year ago, I still think that they are at least among the best two or three teams in the NFL.  I just do not think they have a chance to go 16-0 again, even if they had the EXACT same team as a year ago.  But, they do not.  There are serious questions in the secondary and not-as-serious questions about the healthy of one Tom Brady.  Lord knows if Brady is hurt, even for one quarter, this will probably be the easiest prediction in the league.

11-5, CORRECT (bry 1 – doogan 0).  As Bry claimed, this was one of the easiest picks on the board–and it was made significantly easier when the forecast came true and Brady went down in Week 1, though I do not think the Pats would have made the “mistake” of going 16-0 again, regardless of Tom Terrific’s health.

DOOGAN 2. Miami Dolphins – OVER 1 win: I don’t think I need much analysis here.  I’d love to know when was the last time a team failed to win more than 1 game in consecutive years (I’m thinking the Bucs in the 70’s?).  An experienced quarterback like Chad Pennington should be good for at least 3 W’s.

11-5, CORRECT (doogan 1 – bry 1).  This actually turned out to be the best pick, as the Dolphins made a TEN-GAME TURNAROUND, with much to do with Chad.  There was little to believe that they wouldn’t win 2 games, but ELEVEN?

DOOGAN 3. New York Jets – OVER 4 wins: Looks like all the gimmies are in the AFC East.  This would be an easy pick even before Mr. Favre came aboard because this team under-achieved last year and has made numerous improvements, including solidifying the O-line with Alan Faneca and Damien Woody.

9-7, CORRECT (doogan 2 – bry 1).  Another very solid pick in the early-going, as the Jets were actually 9-3 at one point.  They had a terrible finish and fired their coach, but certainly improved over last year’s 4-win season.

BRY 4. Green Bay Packers – UNDER 13 wins: Don’t get me wrong, I actually think Aaron Rodgers is going to have a very, very good year.  I think this team is a legit playoff team, probably the favorite in the NFC North again, and maybe even good enough to earn a bye.  I see 10 or 11 wins, even without that other guy (what’s his name again?).  In fact, with their defense and weapons on offense, they are one of the two or three best teams in the NFC, and it wouldn’t be a big surprise to me to see them in the Super Bowl.  However, I think 13 wins is just a really tall order, especially with an improved division.  PS…Doogan, good choices with the AFC East teams, especially since they get a real break on their schedules, playing the two Western divisions.

6-10, CORRECT (bry 2 – doogan 2).  Though a lot of this analysis wasn’t very good, Bry did get the important one right, in that the Packers would win fewer than 13 games.  He was also right about the fact that the quarterback would not be the reason for their downfall.  He was pretty good–the rest of the team was not.

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