Broad Street Believers

As we finish up our week long Playoff Top Twelve, we hit the coaches.  This ranking is done based mostly upon the answer to the question:  “Who do you trust most in a playoff game?”  I have tried to encompass my thoughts on the coaches’ experience, preparation/gameplan ability, in-game scheme adjustments, motivational ability, and late-game decision-making (e.g. clock management, 4th down decisions, etc.).  This year was actually pretty tough, as we are loaded with excellent coaches in the playoffs this year (basically the usual cast of characters – Norv Turner, Brad Childress, Wade Phillips, etc. – did not quite make it in this year).

12). Todd Haley – Chiefs.  (1 organization, 2 seasons, 14-18 regular season, 1 division title, 0-0 in playoffs) 

I actually like Todd Haley and think that he is probably going to have a pretty long, successful head coaching career.  But, on this list, he has to rank at the bottom because, right now, he is still a guy with a 14-18 record and zero playoff experience…as a head coach.  Remember, though, he was the offensive coordinator on that Arizona team that just missed winning the Super Bowl with a mediocre defense, so the certainly has playoff credentials as a coordinator.

Never accused of being soft-spoken, Todd Haley is ready to start his playoff career as a head coach

11). Pete Carroll – Seahawks.  (3 organizations, 5 seasons, 40-40 regular season, 1 division title, 1 wild card, 1-2 playoffs) 

It doesn't come with a house for two in Malibu, but life in the NFC West has its perks

I was very close to putting Carroll at #12 to give the Seahawks the sweep of the bottom spots in this week’s rankings.  However, there were a couple reasons that I have him at #11, and actually think that he is a very pretty good coach.  One, despite his short tenures, he has won just about everywhere he has been.  He coached in New England (back when they were a pretty downtrodden franchise) for three years without a losing record, including two playoff appearances.  Then, he went to USC, and we all know what he was able to do out there.  Then, he came to Seattle, and in his first year, with zero talent, somehow managed another playoff appearance.  You don’t think that Pete Carroll had a lot to do with how well the Seahawks played on that do-or-die Sunday night against the Rams?  The guys is certainly a motivator, which runs thin after a while with professionals, but, if used in moderation, can be awfully effective.  That being said, he was only 7-9 this year, and he is only a .500 NFL coach.

10). Mike McCarthy – Packers.  (1 organization, 5 seasons, 48-32 regular season, 1 division title, 2 wild cards, 1-2 playoffs, 1 NFC Championship appearance) 

Honestly, I have no idea what to think about Mike McCarthy, even after 5 years in Green Bay.  He has made the playoffs three times and, with only a minor bump in the road, brought that franchise through one of the toughest situations for a team I have seen in any sport (that whole saga with #4).  But, on the other hand, they have a ton of talent, and he has only managed ONE playoff win in five years?  And, with the complete implosion in Minnesota this year, there is no reason that they should not have have won NFC North (with all due respect to Chicago).  I know that they were hurt by a ton of close losses, but doesn’t come back to the coach, at least in some part?  I think his in-game decision-making leaves a lot to be desired, and, unlike Andy Reid, does not yet have the postseason success to allow us to overlook it.  I was actually strongly considering putting McCarthy at the very bottom of this list, but, in the end, I thought his experience and regular season success was enough to rank him slighly above Haley and Carroll, but one more flame-out in the playoffs, and I am completely off of the McCarthy bandwagon.  Consider yourself warned, Mike.

"Just when I thought I finally deserved more headlines than my brother."

9). John Harbaugh – Ravens.  (1 organization, 3 seasons, 32-16 regular season, 3 wild cards, 3-2 playoffs, 1 AFC Championship appearance) 

This is where it really gets tough to rank them.  As evidenced by his #4 on last year’s list of top playoff coaches, I really think Harbaugh is an excellent coach.  I have him down here at #9 more because I think this year’s crop of playoff coaches is just better than last year’s (and because I think Caldwell may have surpassed him).  Harbaugh took over a franchise that was at a real crossroads after the departures of Brian Billick and the late Steve McNair, and all he has done is win three road playoff games in his first two runs through the AFC.

8). Jim Caldwell – Colts.  (1 organization, 2 seasons, 24-8 regular season, 2 division titles, 2-1 playoffs, 1 AFC Championship appearance, 1 Super Bowl appearance) 

Interestingly, Harbaugh, Caldwell, and McCarthy were #4 through #6 last year, and this year, even though they all have better resumes, considering they have another playoff team to their names, they are #8 though #10.  But, again, that just shows you that when you have a playoff round without Norv, Brad, and Wade, the baseline is elevated.  That being said, I do not think that Jim Caldwell gets enough credit for the job he has done now for two years as a head coach in Indy.  He, basically, went undefeated last year and won the AFC, while this year, he faced an ungodly number of injuries and still won 10 games and the AFC South title.  Yes, he does have Peyton Manning, so it is really hard to evaluate him, but I cannot imagine that Caldwell does not deserve at least some of the credit for this team’s successes.

7). Mike Smith – Falcons.  (1 organization, 3 seasons, 33-15 regular season, 1 division title, 1 wild card, 0-1 playoffs) 

Am I too high on Mike Smith?  Maybe.  Is there reason to be this high on him?  Absolutely.  Can we think back, for a second, at just where the Atlanta Falcons franchise was before he got there.  In the wake of the Michael Vick debacle, they fired Jim Mora, Jr., and brought in the high-profile college coach, Bobby Petrino to run the team, and former high-profile college quarterback, Joey Harrington, to make everyone forget about Vick.  Well, it, not surprisingly, blew up in their face, and they were absolutely terrible.  Mike Smith comes in, drafts Matt Ryan, and the team goes to the playoffs.  They take a small step backwards last year before exploding this year at 13-3.  All the evidence points to Mike Smith as being a terrific head coach.  Granted, he has yet to win a playoff game, so, to be consistent, he should probably be ranked below guys like Caldwell and Harbaugh, but I am not sure that they could have done with this franchise what Smith has in such a short period of time.

6). Lovie Smith – Bears.  (1 organization, 7 seasons, 63-49 regular season, 3 division titles, 2-2 playoffs, 1 NFC Championship appearance, 1 Super Bowl appearance) 

"Man, you guys think Cutler throws a lot of picks? Don't you remember Sexy Rexy?"

On the proverbial “hot seat” coming into the season, Lovie Smith has proven once again that he is one of the best head coaches in the National Football League.  Actually, read the last part of that sentence again.  It even sounds strange to me, and I wrote it.  Is Lovie Smith one of the NFL’s best coaches?  Well, since I am sure not many people jump to say “yes,” stop and think of the success he has had in Chicago and then think about the talent with which he has done it.  Prolonged success for head coaches is usually accompanied by at least one thing:  a great quarterback.  Belichick has Brady; Dungy had Manning; Reid had McNabb; and, even as far back as you want to go with Walsh and Montana, Shula and Marino, Knoll and Bradshaw, and even Lombardi and Starr.  No, please do not take this the wrong way.  I am not saying that Lovie Smith is Vince Lombardi; I am just trying to make the point that all these guys had great quarterbacks.  But, Lovie Smith has now won three division titles with three different quarterbacks.  He even made the Super Bowl with Rex Grossman.  And, it is not like the Bears of Lovie’s time had a Walter Payton to handoff to or any big-time receiving weapon. Lovie Smith does not jump out at you as a fantastic coach, but don’t we often look at “doing a lot with a little” as evidence of a good coach.  Well, Lovie has, at least on the offensive side, certainly done a lot with very little to work with.

5). Rex Ryan – Jets.  (1 organization, 2 seasons, 20-12 regular season, 2 wild cards, 2-1 playoffs, 1 AFC Championship appearance) 

I have gone back and forth numerous times on Rex from the day he took the job in New York.  His bravado is awesome, but is it good for winning football games?  His charisma is perfect for HBO, but is it good for the locker room or the sideline?  His brutal honesty with the press creates fantastic copy, but does it undermine his players, particularly his young quarterback?  I am not quite sure how to answer these questions, but for now, I am going to go with what I see, and what I see is a team that overachieved last year, causing them to be extremely overrated this year, which completely hides the fact that they probably overachieved again this year.  And, they still have a playoff run to put a cap on this season.  I have a soft spot for anything to do with the Ryan family, so take this with a grain of salt, but I think Rex is doing a great job in New York, in two years, and has pulled 20 wins (plus 2 playoff wins) out of a team that probably had 14-win talent.

Mike was better as Quincy McCall in Love & Basketball than anything he's done on House

4). Mike Tomlin – Steelers.  (1 organization, 4 seasons, 43-21 regular season, 3 division titles, 3-1 playoffs, 1 AFC Championship appearance, 1 Super Bowl appearance, 1 Super Bowl title) 

What does Mike Tomlin have to do to be considered elite?  In my opinion, he may have already done it.  He won the division in his first year and then the Super Bowl in his second, and, arguably, this year, he has done the best job of his career.  This team started 3-1 with Dennis Dixon at quarterback.  They lost Polamalu a couple of times this year, but kept on trucking.  He has a fantastic demeanor and a knack for the moment, and I think he is about to have yet another one of those Super Bowl rings.  He has got it all, and the sky is the limit for his coaching ability.

3). Andy Reid – Eagles.  (1 organization, 12 seasons, 118-73-1 regular season, 6 division titles, 3 wild cards, 10-8 playoffs, 5 NFC Championship appearances, 1 Super Bowl appearance) 

For a long time, I have wanted to write a post on how NFL coaching is a strange profession that mandates a two sets of skills that are so polar opposites that it is unfair for us to expect these human beings to excel in both, and maybe our evaluation of them is too far on one side to the near ignoring of the other.  The first part of NFL coaching occurs from Monday through Saturday.  This part involves evaluating your opponent, evaluating your own team, and devising a system that creates the best possible mismatches of your guys against theirs.  This skill is deliberate, calculated, and strategic – much like a game of chess.  Then, you get to Sunday afternoon and the other part of coaching, the part where you have to make split-second decisions and adjustments depending on game situations.  This part accentuates on-the-fly decision-making, instant evaluation, and the motivational and inspirational ability – much like a game of doubles tennis.  These two skills involve incredibly divergent skill sets.  In fact, being good at one is usually at the detriment of the other.  For instance, if you are someone adept at split-second decision-making, you may tend to lack some of the discipline to sit down and make detailed evaluations with unlimited resources.  On the other hand, if you excel at the deliberate, thorough evaluation activities, you may find it difficult to switch into a mode of making instant assessments.  In my opinion, I think, while both areas are vital, I think it is far more important to be the best Monday through Saturday coach you can be.  A good gameplan will usually overcome incorrect replay challenges or wasting a timeout or two.  However, the majority of football fans only evaluate coaches by their ability on Sundays.  That is why most people think that Andy Reid is a bad head coach.  He wastes timeouts.  He is terrible at replay challenges.  His two-minutes offenses are infuriating.  But, couldn’t that just be a manifestation of the things that makes his such a great coach?  His insistence on complete analysis, his obsession with details, his “paralysis by analysis.”  Yes, that is a detriment on Sundays, but it may be the reason the Eagles win.  And, I will take all these wins, even if it makes me pull my hair out on Sunday afternoons.  Let’s face it, coaches have one job – to win.  And, Andy Reid does that as well as anyone (but one) of this generation.

2). Sean Payton – Saints.  (1 organization, 5 seasons, 49-31 regular season, 2 division titles, 1 wild card, 4-1 playoffs, 2 NFC Championship appearances, 1 Super Bowl appearance, 1 Super Bowl title) 

I ranked Payton at #3 last year, saying:  “I have, in the past, been accused of being way too high on Sean Payton, so maybe this is just another example of that, but I think he is a fantastic coach.  I know that he missed the playoffs in two of his first three seasons in New Orleans, but let’s not forget that it is the SAINTS.  His offensive gameplans gave me nightmares when he was with the Giants, and he has brought that ability to New Orleans with him.  Plus, he seems like a guy that the players trust and respect to the fullest.”  After Super Bowl run of last year, I feel a little vindicated, and I am no longer gunshy about saying that Sean Payton is the second-best coach in the NFL. 

1). Bill Belichick – Patriots.  (2 organizations, 16 seasons, 162-94 regular season, 8 division titles, 15-5 playoffs, 4 AFC Championship appearances, 4 Super Bowl appearances, 3 Super Bowl titles) 

Think this "being this best" thing ever gets old?

As easy as it was to put Brady as the #1 quarterback, it was that much easier to pick his coach as the #1 coach.  Bill Belichick is the best coach I have ever seen in any sport.  Ho-hum, another 14-2 season for the master, and this year, he has done it with talent that may even be considered “marginal.”  The defense is average.  Brady’s weapons are good, not great.  Randy Moss is gone.  Mike Vrabel and Teddy Bruschi are gone.  All those ungenius coordinators – Romeo, Charlie, Josh – are gone.  Yes, they don’t miss a beat.  What is the constant?  He is, and he’s the best.

In continuing the week-long NFL playoff theme of ranking the playoff teams in their respective aspects of the game, today’s Top Twelve will be running backs.  But, it is not individual running backs, it is more the team’s running game.  I tried to incorporate their corps of running backs, their offensive line, and even a bit of the coaching staff’s “commitment to the run.”  The list will have teams with their main running backs in parentheses, but the “analysis” (if you want to even call it that) includes the o-line and offensive scheme, as well.  By the way, I do not put much stake in “NFL rushing rankings” because I think all of those rankings are flawed by (1) such a high variance in game situations (e.g. winning or losing early, weather conditions, etc.) and (2) such a small sample size (16 games) against such varying schedules of opponents.  However, I did include them with the write-ups in an effort of full disclosure.

12). Seattle Seahawks.  (#31 – 89 ypg:  Marshawn Lynch – 573 yards, 3.5 avg; Justin Forsett – 523 yards, 4.4 avg)   Get used to this trend going on here with the Seahawks being ranked #12 in the playoff rankings.  I actually like the Marshawn Lynch pickup, and I am not really that low on Justin Forsett either, but this team has proven all year that they really cannot get anything done on the ground.  It might have to do with the fact that they were often playing from behind, but it might also have to do with the fact that they really just are not very good.  Their o-line is very shaky, and Lynch is a guy that was not even good enough for Buffalo (and any other team that could have traded for him).  The Seahawks were, for the majority of the season, the worst rushing team in the entire NFL (they were “passed” by Arizona in Week 17), so it is hard not to say they are the worst rushing team among the playoff qualifiers. 

11). Indianapolis Colts.  (#29 – 93 ypg:  Donald Brown – 497 yards, 3.9 avg; Joseph Addai – 495 yards, 4.3 avg; Javarris James – 112 yards, 2.4 avg; Mike Hart – 185 yards, 4.3 avg; Dominic Rhodes – 172 yards, 4.6 avg) 

I wonder how many yards I could rush for if I had Peyton reading defenses for me

This might sound a bit odd, but I think the Colts rushing attack is more aided by its quarterback than any other team in the NFL, with the possible exception of the Eagles.  And, no, I am not confused and mistook Peyton Manning for Randall Cunningham.  I know that Peyton is slow and almost awkward when he tries to scramble.  But, he has such a grasp on the defensive formations and his own o-line’s blocking schemes, that I think he calls even better audibles to running plays than he does to passing plays.  Time and time again, I will see him go to the line, step back, change the play, and then just run a simple handoff to a running back that goes 8 yards before he is even touched.  And, that is why, well, the Colts are still at #11 here.  Their running backs stink.  Donald Brown is a decent back, if he is your third-down, change-of-pace kind of guy, but as a lead back?  He is bad.  Joseph Addai is still not healthy, though he did play okay in Weeks 16 & 17, but he is not even that good when healthy.  And, Javarris James, while related to the great Edge, is no Edge.

10). Green Bay Packers.  (#24 – 100 ypg:  Brandon Jackson – 703 yards, 3.7 avg; John Kuhn – 281 yards, 3.3 avg; Aaron Rodgers – 356 yards, 5.6 avg)   I actually debated making this team even lower because I do not think this running attack puts fear into anyone.  But, I think this is just about as low as I can justify putting them because the bottom two teams have proven all year that they just cannot run the ball.  This team, at least, tries to do it.  And, it is not totally their fault, as they lost their workhorse back, Ryan Grant, in Week One.  They have turned to Brandon Jackson, who has been, well, just okay.  He is not a terrible north-south runner.  He hits the holes well, but he does not make anyone miss and is actually a complete non-factor in the passing game.  John Kuhn is a goalline threat, but that is it.  This team will live and die on the passing game.

9). New Orleans Saints.  (#28 – 95 ypg:  Chris Ivory – 716 yards, 5.2 avg; Pierre Thomas – 269 yards, 3.2 avg; Julius Jones – 193 yards, 4.0 avg; Ladell Betts (waived) – 150 yards, 3.3 avg; Reggie Bush – 150 yards, 4.2 avg)  

Does a repeat depend on Reggie's health?

This team cannot run the ball effectively either.  This is a real sign of the change in the league that one-third of the playoff teams have almost completely ineffective running games.  And, there are at least two more on this list whose running games are not exactly “feared” in any way.  This Saints team has been stricken by injuries in the backfield this year, as Reggie Bush missed most of the season with a broken leg and Pierre Thomas has missed most of the season with some sort of mystery injury.  Both are now relatively healthy, which is how I can justify moving this team ahead of the Packers, but they still are not that good, as they still rely on the unproven Chris Ivory and the proven-to-be-bad Julius Jones far too much.  The o-line is okay, but is much better in pass protection that opening up holes for backs.  Like the Colts and Packers, this team will not be knocking people off this month with a hard-nosed running attack.

8). Chicago Bears.  (#22 – 101 ypg:  Matt Forte – 1069 yards, 4.5 avg; Chester Taylor – 267 yards, 2.4 avg; Jay Cutler – 232 yards, 4.6 avg)   I actually really like Matt Forte and Chester Taylor as a 1-2 punch out of the backfield.  I think that, because of this senseless obsession with fantasy football, Matt Forte has become really underrated among the general public because he did not live up to his high fantasy projections last year.  But, the guy is a very good dual-threat running back.  The same goes for Chester Taylor, who was sorely missed on the Vikings this year.  But, all that being said, I think that those two are so good, in large part, because of their ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, and right here, we are only judging rushing attacks.  Also, I think that this team could be a lot higher if they had a different mentality.  Mike Martz does not like dive plays or even off-tackle runs.  He likes to spread the field.  I am not saying that this offense would be better another way; I am just saying that the running attack would be better if they, ya know, actually ran the ball consistently.  But, even with Martz and the gunslinger QB, Cutler, they are still scary on the ground, especially in Chicago in January.

7). Baltimore Ravens.  (#14 – 114 ypg:  Ray Rice – 1220 yards, 4.0 avg; Willis McGahee – 380 yards, 3.8 avg; Joe Flacco – 84 yards, 2.0 avg) 

I hope the movie busted blocks because the real-life "Blind Side" has been a bit of a flop so far

While the bottom five teams pretty much fell into place, I had a lot of trouble trying to order the next three teams.  I went back and forth several times between these three and finally decided that the offensive lines of the other two teams I was considering in this group are just so far superior to the Ravens that they had to be ranked above, even though neither of those teams has anyone with near the ability of a Ray Rice.  The Ravens – and Rice – have actually struggled to run the ball effectively this year.  They are committed to do it with Rice and Willis McGahee, but their yards per rush attempt (3.8) was better than only four NFL teams this year.  Their offensive line has been a disappoinment, and Rice has not really taken that next step in his rushing ability.  McGahee continues to have a nose for the endzone, but has not been much of a factor at all between the twenties.  Even with all the talent in the backfield, this team could struggle this year to generate any consistent running attack against the good playoff defenses they are bound to face in the AFC gauntlet.

6). New York Jets.  (#4 – 148 ypg:  LaDainian Tomlinson – 914 yards, 4.2 avg; Shonn Greene – 766 yards, 4.1 avg) 

I would never count out one of the two best RBs I've ever seen, but LT looks like he's just about done

Yes, I know that this team is #4 in the NFL rushing rankings (with two of the teams ahead of them not making the playoffs), but as I said in the intro, I put very little emphasis on those rankings.  As good as he was in the beginning of the season, it seems as if LdT has hit a real wall.  And, what happened to the Shonn Greene that looked like Michael Turner on steroids in the playoffs last year?  He has been pretty bad this year.  I think this team has really missed Thomas Jones this year (more on Mr. Jones a lot later in this post…if get me).  I do, however, strongly believe in this offensive line.  It will not take much rejuvenation from LdT or Greene because D’Brickashaw (maybe the greatest first name since the invention of the first name) and Company are that good.  The substance on that line is the reason that I even have this team even this high and not down with the bottom-feeders. 

5). New England Patriots.  (#9 – 123 ypg:  BenJarvus Green-Ellis – 1008 yards, 4.4 avg; Danny Woodhead – 547 yards, 5.6 avg) 

He might be best known for his annoyingly overused nickname, but BenJarvus Green-Ellis has had a quietly excellent season

I think one of the most under-reported stories of this season has been the emergence of BenJarvus Green-Ellis as a legitimate threat out of the backfield for the Patriots.  Green-Ellis, with 80 yards on Sunday, became the first 1000-yard rusher for New England since “Clock-Killin'” Corey Dillon in 2004.  This story was so underreported that I actually had to look it up myself (usually all things Patriots are all over ESPN and the like).  Everyone talks about – and rightfully so – the incredible season for Tom Brady, but Green-Ellis and fellow backfield-mate, Danny Woodhead, seem to get forgotten.  The Pats, for all their successes this decade, have not won a Super Bowl since beating the Eagles six years ago.  That year was, maybe not coincidentally, that same year that Corey Dillon ran for 1,000 yards.  But, this year, the Pats have a serious running attack, and it all starts up front.  As good as Green-Ellis has been, the o-line has just been outstanding.  One of the best run-pass combination lines in football, this Patriots team has committed more to the run and it shows in their ability to open up holes.  This offense is downright terrifying.

(By the way, if you get a chance, go here and select one of the links for the video of Danny Woodhead posing as a Modell’s salesman trying to sell Danny Woodhead Patriots jerseys.  It is pretty entertaining and really makes him out to be a pretty down-to-earth kind of guy.  But, the most telling part of it – for me, at least – is looking at him standing next to regular people.  There is a middle-aged woman who appears to be towering him.  And, yet, this guy has been taking the NFL by storm in the second half of the season.  It is awesome to see, though I am a bit hesitant to start talking about how “anyone can make it – just look at 5’5″ Woodhead.”  That is a bit ridiculous because, though he was not blessed with even average size, he was blessed with off-the-charts athletic ability.  So, it is not like this is your average office worker, who decided to have a go at the NFL.  But, either way, he has been awesome.)  

4). Pittsburgh Steelers.  (#11 – 120 ypg:  Rashard Mendenhall – 1273 yards, 3.9 avg; Isaac Redman – 247 yards, 4.8 avg; Ben Roethlisberger – 176 yards, 5.2 avg)  It was not long until Rashard Mendenhall broke out on the NFL stage.  He is a very talented back, who was drafted by a team that flat-out knows how to run the ball.  Mendenhall, and to a lesser extent Isaac Redman, have held down the fort and compensated for a rather poor offensive line all season.  Throw in the scrambling ability of Big Ben and the strong commitment to the ball-possession running game, and you have got yourself a very, very good rushing attack.  There is a reason that this team went 3-1 (and an overtime game against the Ravens short of 4-0) without its All-Pro quarterback.

3). Atlanta Falcons.  (#12 – 118 ypg:  Michael Turner – 1371 yards, 4.1 avg; Jason Snelling – 324 yards, 3.7 avg; Matt Ryan – 122 yards, 2.7 avg)  I love the Falcons style of play.  They still have a little bit of that “three yards and a cloud of dust” offensive mentality that was so effective for so long in the NFL.  Michael Turner (and his misnomer of a nickname, “The Burner”) is a grueling, hit-you-in-the-face kind of back that lives on wearing down defenses, so that he can punish them in the fourth quarter.  And, when Turner needs a break, they just throw Jason Snelling in there to do more of the same.  Matt Ryan is an okay scrambler, and the offensive line makes up for in size and continuity what it may lack in athleticism.   This is just a grueling team that is very comfortable in that role.

2). Philadelphia Eagles.  (#5 – 145 ypg:  LeSean McCoy – 1080 yards, 5.2 avg; Michael Vick – 676 yards, 6.8 avg; Jerome Harrison – 239 yards, 6.0 avg) 

Is LeSean McCoy the best back no one ever talks about? Either way, he's just another example of the fantastic drafting of our Philadelphia Eagles

Call me homer all you want, but remember that it was just yesterday that I ranked Michael Vick as in the middle of the pack as far as quarterbacks go.  It may be strange to think about, but this Eagles team has a truly elite rushing attack.  In fact, it took every non-homerish bone in my body to keep me from making them number one on this list.  Hear me out.  The Eagles were #1 – BY A MILE – in yards per rush.  They averaged an absolutely mind-boggling 5.4 yards per rush attempt.  The next best were the Oakland Raiders at 4.9.  That means that they were 0.5 yards per rush better than any other team in the NFL, and 0.7 yards per rush more than the next best playoff team, the Chiefs.  To put that in perspective, after the Birds and the Chiefs, the next best playoff team in this stat is New England, who averaged 4.3 yards per rush.  And, 4.3 yards per rush is only 0.7 higher than the WORST team in the NFL (Arizona).  So, the margin between the Eagles and the next best playoff team in this statistic is the same margin as the Patriots (the third best playoff team here) and the worst team in the NFL at rushing efficiency.  That is astronomical.  And, if you want to say, “Ya, well, they still are not running the ball when they have to,” then I will point you to the first Dallas game in Week 14.  The Birds got the ball, up three, with over four minutes to go.  They just handed the ball off to LeSean McCoy repeatedly, who completely iced the game.  They have been running on running downs and still doing it effectively.  The offensive line has had its ups and downs in pass protection, but they have been massive in the running game.  To be honest, I think that I am over-compensating for any possible homerism here by not having the Eagles as #1.  My only rationale for keeping them at #2 is that I am still not convinced that Andy Reid is completely committed to the run, and that some of these stats may be inflated by Michael Vick scrambles – even though, I believe these should be counted as running plays.  And, finally, I think that this team still struggles in goal-line situations.  I am not nearly as confident in them scoring on 3rd-and-Goal at the 1 as I am with the #1 team on this list…

1). Kansas City Chiefs.  (#1 – 164 ypg:  Thomas Jones – 896 yards, 3.7 avg; Jamaal Charles – 1467 yards, 6.4 avg) 

The perfect running back complements - Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones - lead the league's best rushing attack into the playoffs

This rushing attack seemingly has it all.  They have the dynamic, homerun hitter in Jamaal Charles, and the tough, experienced, “get you 3 yards when your season depends on getting 2” guy in Thomas Jones.  They also have a stark commitment to the run and an offensive line big and tough enough to dominate.  Again, I think that I am catering to my fear of homerism here, as I think the Eagles combination of McCoy and Vick is more scary, more dynamic, and probably better than Charles and Jones, but I cannot go against this rushing attack because I have been a believer all year in these two.  And, as I said above, on 3rd-and-Goal (or even 3rd-and-1 in the middle of the field), this team picks up the yards.  The Eagles do not have a Thomas Jones to lean on when they absolutely need 2 yards.  But, it is very close – and that is saying something when you are talking about an Andy Reid team.

We ran this last year during playoff week, and I had fun with it, so let us try it again.  

Usually the Top Twelve lists are reserved for those select Tuesdays when I cannot think of anything else to write about.  However, because of the NFL playoffs starting this weekend, I have decided to forego the convenient alliteration and even more convenient personal laziness to try and do a Top Twelve list each day this week, focusing on a different aspect of the twelve teams that are still alive in their pursuits to hoist the Lombardi Trophy next month.  As always, these lists are based entirely on fact.  Mere opinion plays no role whatsoever, so please don’t even attempt to dispute it. 

Today, we are going to start with quarterback–the most scrutinized position in all of sports.  This is not about debating the relative careers of these twelve guys.  It’s not even about debating their relative 2010 seasons.  This list is going to attempt to rank the 12 quarterbacks in order of who I would want (and trust in the upcoming month of playoff games) to have on my team right now. 

12). Matt Hasselbeck – Seahawks.  (3001 yards, 12 TDs, 17 INTs, 59.9% completion, 73.2 QB rating, 69-62 as a starter, 4-5 in playoffs, last playoffs: 3 years ago, lost in Divisional Round to Packers) 

Maybe he would have been ranked higher back when he had hair…in high school

The answer to the question of which quarterback you trust least in the 2011 NFL playoffs is made even easier with the fact that the worst QB may not even be (a) healthy or (b) trusted enough to start for his own team on Saturday.  We are going to assume that it is Matt Hasselbeck who will be starting for the 7-9 Seahawks on Saturday when the host the Saints, but it could be Charlie Whitehurst – who might be ranked 19th on this list of Top Twelve.  Hasselbeck has been a competent – borderline very good – quarterback for most of his career, as evidenced by his 9 career playoff starts – more than every playoff quarterback this year not named Brady, Manning, or Roethlisberger.  However, the sun is setting on the career of Mr. Hasselbeck (12 TDs, 17 INTs), and I think it is not even really that close between he and anyone else in the playoffs as to who you would rather have for a playoff run this year, particularly if he is not 100% healthy. 

11). Mark Sanchez – Jets.  (3291 yards, 17 TDs, 13 INTs, 54.8% completion, 75.3 QB rating, 18-12 as a starter, 2-1 in playoffs, last playoffs: last year, lost in AFC Championship Game to Colts)  Well, our old friend Mark Sanchez is moving up in the world.  Last year, when we ranked the playoff quarterbacks, Sanchez brought up the rear at #12.  This year, he improves one spot to #11.  It was a second straight up-and-down year for Sanchez in New York, but honestly, I feel better about him this year than I did a year ago at this time.  I think last year, they were winning despite him and gameplanning around his deficiencies.  This year, while the Jets are not winning because of Sanchez, they are allowing him to play more of a role in this offense.  No longer do they have to run the ball to win (which is good because they have not exactly done that well this year) because they allow Sanchez to make plays.  Brian Schottenheimer has done a very good job in scheming an offense that plays to Sanchez’s strengths and away from his weaknesses.  Plus, as a Southern California kid, he is still learning to play in the elements – something that he probably will not have to deal with in the first round because of their trip to Indy.  Overall, I think Sanchez, while numbers do not look much different, has shown some decent progression from first year to second year.  I still do not think he is anywhere near an elite quarterback and probably never will be, but, as the Jets proved last year, he probably does not need to be.

For better or worse, the Jets have given the San-chise more leeway to run the offense

10). Matt Cassel – Chiefs.  (3116 yards, 27 TDs, 7 INTs, 58.2% completion, 93.0 QB rating, 24-21 as a starter, 0-0 in playoffs) 

Don’t sleep on Matt Cassel and the Chiefs

Many people thought that the Pats just fleeced KC with this trade, but Charlie Weis and Todd Haley have really done a great job utilizing the strengths of Matt Cassel this year, and he has had an excellent season.  His seven interceptions is the third fewest of any playoff quarterback, behind the immortal Tom Brady and Michael Vick, who only started 11 games.  But, as good as the numbers look, you have to keep in mind two big things:  (1) the Chiefs played one of the worst schedules in all of football, and (2) they had the best running attack in the league.  So, Cassel was not needed to come from behind all that often and he was throwing against a lot of 7- and 8-man fronts.  He has done a very nice job under center, but this team is going to win or lose with its backs, and I would probably rather have any other playoff quarterback if my team needed an 80-yard touchdown drive with two minutes to go.  So, while Cassel is as unlikely as any playoff QB to cost the Chiefs the game, he is also probably as unlikely to win one for them. 

9). Jay Cutler – Bears.  (3274 yards, 23 TDs, 16 INTs, 60.4% completion, 86.3 QB rating, 35-34 as a starter, 0-0 in playoffs) 

How would we feel about Jay Cutler if 2009 never happened?

I am actually a bit of a Jay Cutler defender.  I actually said, at the beginning of the year, that we should watch out for the Bears with the Cutler-Martz combination.  And, I definitely think people are way too low on this guy as a result of one terrible season.  He responded this year with a much better year (though 16 INTs is still too much when you only throw for just over 3,000 yards).  All that being said, I am still not sure that he is a guy that can be trusted.  He still thinks that he can make any pass at any time into any coverage, and in the NFL that over-confidence will kill you.  He has led his team to a first-round bye this year with a marginal set of weapons, but he has also leaned heavily on a very good defense to do so.  I am generally higher on Cutler than the average public perception, but I cannot say that I “trust” him more than any of the nine guys I have yet to mention. 

8). Joe Flacco – Ravens.  (3622 yards, 25 TDs, 10 INTs, 62.6% completion, 93.6 QB rating, 32-16 as a starter, 3-2 in playoffs, last playoffs: last year, lost in Divisional Round to Colts) 

If we are so quick to kill QBs for not winning, shouldn't we be celebrating those that do?

While Doogan will probably take this ranking as another example of my subconcious love of the Baltimore Ravens, I will try and defend why I moved Flacco up from #10 last year to #8 this year, even though his numbers are only slightly better, while his receiving corps is a lot better.  Most of the defense will be directed at the four QBs ranked below him on this list.  Hasselbeck and Sanchez are no-brainers for the bottom two, right?  The next group of 8 to 10 was Flacco, Cutler, and Cassel.  Cutler and Cassel have never played in the playoffs.  Cutler is erratic, while Cassel is ordinary.  Flacco is experienced (depite his youth), effective, and reliable.  He, like Cassel, is not going to make too many game-changing mistakes, but, like Cutler, can make some big-time throws.  He is certainly not among the upper-echelon of starting quarterbacks in the NFL, but the guy had a QB rating over 93 this year, with 25 TDs and only 10 INTs.  Also, he has started every game of his professional career and won 2/3 of them.  He also won three playoff games in his first two NFL seasons.  There is a large separation between the top 7 on this list and Flacco, but I think he is clearly the best of the rest in this year’s playoffs. 

7). Aaron Rodgers – Packers.  (3922 yards, 28 TDs, 11 INTs, 65.7% completion, 101.2 QB rating, 27-20 as a starter, 0-1 in playoffs, last playoffs: last year, lost in Wild Card Round to Cardinals)  I might be crazy here, but there are 6 quarterbacks I would take before Aaron Rodgers right now.  A lot of it has to do with the fact that Rodgers, as the 6-seed, will be on the road for the entirety of the playoffs.  I also took into account the concussions (and other nicks and bruises) Rodgers has been trying to overcome in a rough second half of the season.  While I believe that Rodgers is absolutely an elite quarterback in this league, he also has the benefit of a stable of fantastic receivers on offense, so his numbers may be a little inflated in that regard, as well.  Do not get me wrong, as an Eagles fan, I am not looking forward to our secondary against Aaron Rodgers, I am just saying that, given all that is going on with the Rodgers right now, I would be even more frightened if he traded places with any of the next six guys.  

6). Michael Vick – Eagles.  (3018 yards, 21 TDs, 6 INTs, 100.2 QB rating, 46-31-1 as a starter, 2-2 in playoffs, last playoffs: 6 years ago, lost in NFC Championship Game to Eagles) 

This book still has more chapters to be written...and I am anxious to read them

A guy who will probably finish second in the MVP voting – on the team on which this blog focuses – and he is only ranked sixth among playoff quarterbacks?!?  That can’t be right.  But, as always, I am trying to be as objective as possible here, and I think that, given the situation (a little banged-up and having to play in the Wild Card Round and then on the road, presumably, for the rest of the way), I could not justify placing Michael Vick any higher on this list, even though I think that, as I have said before (a little tongue-in-cheek, but a little not), “we cannot yet rule out that he may be the greatest quarterback to ever walk the earth.”  The following is a sentence that you will hear a lot in the next week and is completely overstated, yet not wholly untrue:  “The New York Giants found the blueprint for stopping Michael Vick.”  Like I said, this is completely overstated, but something did change that day.  Defenses no longer believe that zone defense is the only way to stop Vick.  They have been bringing a TON of pressure, and Vick is taking a ton of hits.  He is forced into bad decisions, as well.  All that being said, Michael Vick has been the most dangerous, most explosive, most feared quarterback in the National Football League.  Yes, he has not played in a playoff game since Leavenworth.  Yes, he has never relied on his pocket passing ability to win a big game.  And, yes, he has had a slew of dynamic weapons in his holster this season.  But, it is now a clean slate, and let us not forget that Michael Vick has been, by a mile, the Most Valuable Player in the NFC this year…maybe I do have him too low here. 

5). Matt Ryan – Falcons.  (3705 yards, 28 TDs, 9 INTs, 62.5% completion, 91.0 QB rating, 33-13 as a starter, 0-1 in playoffs, last playoffs: 2 years ago, lost in Wild Card Round to Cardinals)  For the better part of his 3-year career, I thought Matt Ryan was a bit overrated for his quarterbacking ability.  He seemed like a decent “game-manager” (the ultimate in back-handed compliments for QBs), but I still was not convinced that he would be anything more than a decent quarterback on a team with a great running game.  Well, I have changed my opinion this year, and I now believe that Matt Ryan is an elite passer in the NFL.  No matter how good your team’s running game is, it is hard to argue with a 33-13 career record as a starter.  Plus, if you add in the fact that he has only lost TWO games at home in his entire 3-year career and the Falcons never have to leave the Georgia Dome, then Ryan is a pretty good pick as a quarterback to trust this playoff season.  In fact, he is only behind the four guys with some hardware on their mantles…

4). Drew Brees – Saints.  (4620 yards, 33 TDs, 22 INTs, 68.1% completion, 90.9 QB rating, 79-58 as a starter, 4-2 in playoffs, last playoffs: last year, won Super Bowl) 

The Reigning Champ

The defending Super Bowl MVP is back to retain his crown this year.  There are several tiers in the playoff quarterbacks this year, and #4 marks the end of the top tier.  Hasselbeck and Sanchez are in the bottom tier.  Then, there is the Cutler, Cassel, Flacco group.  After that, we have a group of near-elites in Rodgers, Vick, and Ryan.  And, now we hit the best of the best.  Four quarterbacks with Super Bowl titles; four quarterbacks with Super Bowls MVPs; three of whom also have NFL MVPs; four quarterbacks who carry their teams to victories on a weekly basis and then find a new level in the playoffs.  At number, I have Drew Brees.  Brees has been very, very good this year, but has had enough shaky moments to elicit minor questions about his consistency.  Plus, the Saints will probably have to win three straight road games to get back to the Big Game, so he ends up at the bottom of the Best of the Best group.  He is still an unbelievable quarterback and an unbelievable human being.  Half of that is true about… 

3). Ben Roethlisberger – Steelers.  (3200 yards, 17 TDs, 5 INTs, 97.0 QB rating, 69-29 as a starter, 8-2 in playoffs, last playoffs: 2 years ago, won Super Bowl)  Number one in your hearts, number three on this list.  If this was a list of the best people in the playoffs, Ben would, uh, not be this high.  But, fortunately for Steelers fans, Super Bowls are not won on the strength of character, and Ben is, whether we like it or not, one of the best quarterbacks in the world.  And, the best part about him is that he gets even better when the games get bigger.  Yes, this team relies on its defense, but, with the exception of that guy in New England, there is no one I would rather have to lead a game-winning drive than this guy.  He just gets it done.  In fact, for one drive, with everything on the line, I might actually take Ben over Brady…maybe.  But, trust me, I am rooting for him to fall flat on his face in the biggest moment; I just do not think it will happen. 

2). Peyton Manning – Colts.  (4700 yards, 33 TDs, 17 INTs, 66.3% completion, 91.9 QB rating, 141-67 as a starter, 9-9 in playoffs, last playoffs: last year, lost in Super Bowl to Saints) 

The One We'll Tell Our Grandkids About

There is a lot of talk about Peyton – there has been all of his career.  “He comes up small in the clutch.”  “He has lost a step.”  And, my personal favorite, “He is a ‘system quarterback'” (what does that even mean?).  But, there is one thing that must be said above all:  “He is one of the best there ever was.”  9-9 in the playoffs?  Yes, I know.  17 interceptions this year?  Yes, I know that, too.  But, if you look deep down at the most brutally honest depth of your soul and can actually tell me that you would rather have anyone (other than Brady) over Peyton Manning, then I do not really know what to tell you.  Nine straight 10-win seasons (eight of them were 12+).  Eleven of the past twelve seasons with 10+ wins.  Wow!  And, this year, to do it with a host of undrafted free agents and castoffs, might be his greatest accomplishment to date.  Do I think the Colts are legit contenders in the AFC this year?  No, I don’t.  But, we are just ranking quarterbacks here, and I almost made this guy #1…almost. 

1). Tom Brady – Patriots.  (3900 yards, 36 TDs, 4 INTs, 65.9% completion, 111.0 QB rating, 111-32 as a starter, 14-4 in playoffs, last playoffs: last year, lost in Wild Card Round to Ravens) 

Maybe it's the hair (but, let's hope not...)

Ho-hum, another 14-2 year for the Patriots.  Is it possible that Tom Brady had a better regular season this year than in 2007, when he threw 50 touchdowns and went undefeated?  He did most of his damage this year after the team jettisoned their only real deep threat.  He also had to get by for 8 games without their best offensive lineman and no real running game.  Throwing to guys named Hernandez, Gronkowski, and Woodhead, Tom Brady threw 36 TDs and only FOUR interceptions.  And, unless you were asleep since last century, you know that this was not exactly a “flash in the pan” season for the Golden Boy.  111-32 as a starter is mind-boggling.  14-4 in the playoffs is even more impressive.  A team with a questionable defense and no real weapons went 14-2 this year against a brutal schedule.  They won at San Diego by 3, at Pittsburgh by 13, at Miami by 27, and at Chicago by 29.  They beat Baltimore, Green Bay, and Indianapolis.  And, oh by the way, they thrashed the Jets on a Monday night, 45-3.  Now, this is not all Tom Brady, but wouldn’t you agree that it is mostly Tom Brady?  I would.  This one was easy.