The Lineup: College Hoops’ Games to Watch For Today

There are few things better than Saturdays in February with dozens and dozens of college hoops games running all day.  Today, there are 141 D-I games on the docket.  Some of which, like Tennessee Tech at Tennessee-Martin, will probably come and go without anyone really noticing, but others might change the outcomes of conference titles, conference tournaments and that great thing we call Madness.  So, here are a few of the 141 that you might want to try and catch, if you can:

Pittsburgh at Villanova
The national game of the day is on the Main Line in prime time on ESPN.  A rematch of one of the greatest Elite Eight games ever from two years ago, pits two of the top four Big East teams and two top ten national teams.

Temple at Dayton
While America is most concerned with the Big Five team that hosts Pitt, BSB will be focused on their Big Five team on the road in a very tough place to win.  The Owls are back in the national rankings, and the Flyers have been struggling, but Dayton is not exactly a place you go into expecting to come out with a W.

Ohio State at Wisconsin
I am predicting that the undefeated season ends here.  The Badgers have been off-the-charts good at home under Bo Ryan.  Look up their home winning percentage under Ryan one day – you will be amazed.

Tennessee at Florida
Not sure if anyone has taken notice, but the Gators are very, very good this year.  Billy Donovan probably has the SEC’s best team, but Tennessee is not far behind, especially with Bruce Pearl back at the helm.

Kentucky at Vanderbilt
Two other really good teams in the SEC East do battle today, as Kentucky (the 9th youngest team in the nation) visits the strangest gym in America to take on an often overlooked Vandy team, coming off a nice win over ‘Bama Thursday night.

North Carolina at Clemson
Will the Tar Heels be affected by their collapse in the second half at Cameron?  Don’t look now, but Clemson has emerged as the ACC’s 4th best team, which surprisingly probably will not equate to a tournament berth without big wins like this one would be.

Baylor at Texas
The Bears are starting to play better and are making a late run towards the tournament.  Texas might be the best team in the country right now.  This is a great setting for a suddenly rejuvenated in-state rivalry.

San Diego State at UNLV
The Aztecs take their 24-1 record to the Thomas & Mack Center, which is never an easy place to play.  The Rebels have been grossly overshadowed by SDSU and BYU this year and could very much use a big win like this to put a stamp on their season.

Southern Mississippi at Memphis
Larry Eustachy is back with S.Miss and they are competing for the top spot in Conference USA.  Memphis has all the talent to be a tournament team, but have not really put it together.  This should be an interesting “show us where you are” kind of game for both teams.

Wichita State at Northern Iowa
After a slow start to conference play N.Iowa is starting to play like the Sweet 16 version of the Panthers last year.  With all due respect to Missouri State, the Shockers are probably the best team in a decent Valley this year, but UNI is not far behind.

St. Mary’s at San Francisco
For a late night treat, see if you get the Gaels versus the Dons.  Surprisingly, since Gonzaga is not involved, this game pits the top two teams in the WCC.  If USF can pull off the upset, they will be tied for first and have wins over Gonzaga and St. Mary’s in their pockets.

Wright State at Valparaiso
Valpo holds a slim lead in the Horizon League, but three teams, including Wright State are breathing down their necks.  Valpo already beat WSU in Dayton, so they will be trying to complete the sweep and take another step towards homecourt advantage throughout the Horizon League tournament.

Coastal Carolina at Winthrop
CCU is four wins away from completing a perfect regular season in the Big South and this one is probably the toughest game they have left.  Winthrop has not been nearly as good as their teams of the past, but they are still never an easy team to beat on their home floor.

IPFW at Oakland
The top two teams in the Summit League square off.  Oakland, who holds a three-game lead, has already beaten IPFW in Indianapolis.  The Golden Grizzlies can actually become the first team in the country to clinch at least a share of their conference regular season title if things go right for them on Saturday.

Northern Colorado at Montana
UNC, fresh off a win at Montana State, could open up a two-game lead if they can complete the sweep of the Montana schools.  On the other hand, the Grizzlies, with a win, will draw even with UNC in the Big Sky.

Texas Southern at Jackson State
Far and away the best two teams in the lowly SWAC square off on Saturday.  Texas Southern won the first meeting, in Houston, but JSU can regain first place if they earn the season split.

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On to Hoops: Assessing the 32 Conferences in College Hoops

The Super Bowl is over.  Congrats to the Packers.  Now, the sports world shifts from the gridiron to the hardwood.  And, that is great news because, here at BSB, if football is our occupation, and baseball is our love, then college hoops is our religion.  It is the omnipresent sport whose dominance of our sporting conscience waxes and wanes throughout the year, but always holds a place of utmost importance to our lives.  Well, now that the month of February has begun, we enter our religion’s equivalent of Ramadan or Lent.  Our sporting lives will be almost entirely consumed with college hoops for the next 6 weeks, leading up to the greatest celebration on the sports calendar – March Madness.  So, as we sit here on the precipice of another celebration, I wanted to run down the surprises and disappoinments of the college hoops season, conference-by-conference.  As a lover of the mid-majors (and low-majors), I will try to touch all 32 D-I conferences (in varying detail), in order of my own personal conference power ranking.  I know that Doogan disagrees with at least my #1 conference in power rankings, so this could be interesting.

(NOTE:  This post was written to include games played through Wednesday night.)

1). Big XII
Top to bottom (which is how these conferences are going to be ranked), the Big XII is the nation’s best conference.  Iowa State and Texas Tech are its two worst teams, and they solid teams.  Nebraska and Colorado can beat anyone in the country on any given night and they are #9-10 in this conference.  And, despite the slow starts of K-State and Baylor, they still have a TON of talent.  Throw in the emergence of Texas as one of the best three or four teams in the country, and you have yourself the nation’s best conference.

  • Most Pleasantly Surprising:  Texas (21-3, 9-0)
    I thought about Texas A&M here, but could not get past just how good this Texas team is.  It can be argued (and has by Doug Gottlieb) that this is the best team in the country.  They are 9-0 in the Big XII, including a decisive win AT KANSAS, and their out-of-conference schedule was brutal.  Their losses were by 1 point to UConn, by 2 points AT Pitt, and a shaky game at USC.  They have also beaten Illinois and Arkansas (by 33) at home, and UNC and Michigan State on the road.
  • Most Disappointing:  Kansas State (16-8, 4-5)
    This one is easy, considering they are probably the most disappointing team in the country.  They were in the top 5 in the preseason polls and are just 4-5 in conference.  But, assuming they don’t lose Curtis Kelly for the year, there is still hope for this team, as they have won three of their last four, with that only loss at Kansas.

2). Big East
If the Big East did not have a ridiculous 16 teams, they would EASILY be #1, but I cannot overlook the awfulness that is the bottom of this league.  DePaul is probably the worst Big Six team in the country, while USF, Providence, Seton Hall, and Rutgers are feisty, but not very good.  I also think that, after Pitt, there is not another legit Final Four contender in this conference, whereas the Big XII, Big Ten, ACC, and even the Mountain West have at least two teams that would not shock me if they ended up in Houston.  That being said, the depth at the top of this league is incredible.  Syracuse (7th place) is one of the best 15-20 teams in the country; Marquette (10th place) is one of the 30-35 best teams in the country.

  • Most Pleasantly Surprising:  Notre Dame (20-4, 9-3)
    This could have gone to a number of teams, including Louisville for their in-conference performance, Cincinnati for their out-of-conference performance, or St. John’s for their amzing resurgence.  But, I went with the Irish because they are currently the 2nd place team in what many believe is the nation’s best conference, and they haven’t exactly racked up their 9 wins against the dregs of the conference, either.  They have already beaten Pitt, UConn, Georgetown, and Louisville along the way.
  • Most Disappointing:  West Virginia (15-8, 6-5)
    This was tough because the bad teams in the conference were supposed to be bad and the good teams were supposed to be good.  I considered throwing Villanova in here because they’re not the top 5 team that many thought they might be, but I never really considered them a top 5 team to begin with.  As for the Mountaineers, they are coming off a Final Four run and have a decent amount of talent returning, and they just have not really hit their stride.  A lot has to do with a team-imposed suspension of their only real offensive threat, Casey Mitchell.  And, to be honest, they do not have any bad conference losses, except maybe a home loss to St. John’s, but that is at least negated by a win at Georgetown.  I just really didn’t have anyone else to pick.

3). Big Ten
Before the season started, it looked like the Big Ten was going to be far and away the best conference in the country, and that was before Ohio State was thought of as clearly the #1 team in the country and before Wisconsin was even nationally ranked.  However, one thing has happened that no one, anywhere, could have possibly predicted – Michigan State stinks.  But, even moreso, Illinois has underperformed and Northwestern has bottomed out.  On the bright side for Midwesterners is that there are three really good conferences and then a bunch of other leagues, and the Big Ten is clearly one of those three.

  • Most Pleasantly Surprising:  Wisconsin (18-5, 8-3)
    This could have been Purdue because they are really, really good, and it could even be Ohio State because, even though they were thought of as a potential Top 5 team, no one had them as the far-and-away #1 team in the country.  And, it could even go to those great Nittany Lions in State College, but I decided to peg the ole Philly boy, Bo Ryan’s team as the the most surprising in the Big Ten because they are elite.  I thought they would be good because, well, they are always good, but I did not expect them to be THIS good.  Jordan Taylor is a certifiable star and this team has Final Four potential.
  • Most Disappointing:  Michigan State (13-10, 5-6)
    This one is the easiest choice in the country.  What the hell is going on out in East Lansing?  This team is loaded with talent and has, arguably, the nation’s best coach roaming the sidelines,  but they just keep on losing, including a 30-point debacle in Madison this weekend.  I really don’t get it at all.  After coming into the season #2 in the country, they in a dogfight just to make the Dance.  Wow!

4). Mountain West
Okay, I know, this is where I lose the casual reader, but I believe that the Mountain West is better than the ACC, the SEC, and the Pac-10.  And, do you know who else thinks so?  Mr. RPI.  The MWC has the #4 conference RPI and boasts top teams in the TOP FOUR in team RPI (BYU is #1 and SDSU is #4).  And, the league is actually a good bit deeper than people give it credit for, as UNLV, New Mexico, and Colorado State are all in NCAA tournament discussion.  That is five teams with a shot at The Dance from a “mid-major” league of only 9 teams.

  • Most Pleasantly Surprising:  San Diego State (24-1, 9-1)
    I almost put Colorado State here because they are having a great year and coach Tim Miles is really building a program there, but then 24-1 hit me in the face.  The Aztecs were supposed to be good, but not this good.  I also want to give a shout-out to the Air Force Academy, who has actually been pretty tough this year, sitting in the middle of the pack in a very good conference.
  • Biggest Disappointment:  Utah (10-14, 3-7)
    While there have not really been any major disappoinments here in the MWC, I would have to take Utah because of their historical success and their real disappoinment this year.  They have not even been that competitive and have an outside chance of playing in the Mountain West tournament’s pigtail game that pits the bottom two regular season teams in a play-in game.

5). ACC
Historically the best basketball conference in the country is having a real down year.  Duke is fantastic, but is not quite the dominant team that everyone though, and UNC has been very good, but other than that, it has not been pretty for this proud conference.  Wake Forest (not all that surprisingly) is one of the worst major conference teams in the country.

  • Most Pleasantly Surprising:  North Carolina (17-6, 7-2)
    It is hard to defend any statement that calls the North Carolina Tar Heels a “pleasant surprise” in a basketball season, but I think this is the obvious choice here because (a) the Tar Heels were really bad last year, (b) they are really good this season now that the super-freshmen have adjusted, and (c) the rest of the conference kind of stinks.  But, either way, watch out for the Heels come March – they are very good and playing very well.
  • Biggest Disappointment:  N.C. State (12-11, 2-7)
    Freshman C.J. Leslie guaranteed an ACC title for the Wolfpack this year (probably his only year) and, from the way it is going, Leslie will be lucky if they get an NIT bid.  This team has completely imploded, and it is clearly time for the Sidney Lowe experiment to end mercifully in Raleigh.  Give an honorable mention here for the disappoinments of Virginia Tech and Miami, as well, but at least Va Tech’s have more to do with injury than anything else, and they still have some time to straighten it out.

6). SEC
Like the ACC, one of the perennial powerhouse conferences in the country is having a down year.  However, the problems are different.  The ACC does have two legitimately elite teams, but really falls off in quality after that.  The SEC, on the other hand, has a decent amount of depth in the league, but they lack any true title contender, and I would be shocked if the SEC is represented in Houston in the Final Four.

  • Most Pleasantly Surprising:  Alabama (15-7, 7-1)
    It is hard for me to choose a team from the SEC-West here because that division is so dreadful when compared to the East, but Alabama has proven itself, thus far, against both divisions.  The Tide is 3-0 against the East, including home wins over Kentucky and South Carolina anda win at Tennessee.  They are also, expectedly, putting it to the West teams, as well.  Florida gets a nod here, as they are 8-2 in conference, including wins over every other SEC-East team already.
  • Most Disappointing:  Auburn (8-15, 1-8)
    It is hard to say that they are the most disappointing when everyone had already expected them to finish last in the conference, but they have been HISTORICALLY bad this year.  The Tigers were 7-8 in their out of conference schedule, which might not be that bad, if they had played a decent schedule.  But, well, you can be the judge of the first 11D-I games of the 2010-2011 Auburn Tigers:

L (70-69) home to UNC-Asheville (7-6, tied for 3rd place in the Big South)
L (78-67) home to Samford (4-8, 10th place in the SoCon)
L (61-54) home to Campbell (5-9, tied for 7th place in A-Sun)
W (68-66) home against Middle Tennessee (7-4, tied for 3rd in Sun Belt)
L (69-55) home to Jacksonville (10-4, 3rd in A-Sun)
W (66-62) home against AK-Pine Bluff (4-7, 6th in SWAC – 4-19 overall)
L (64-53) at Rutgers (4-8, tied for 12th in Big East)
L (61-49) at South Florida (2-10, 15th in Big East)
L (62-59) home to Presbyterian (4-9, 8th in Big South)
W (68-54) home against USC-Upstate (3-11, last in A-Sun)
W (88-84) home against Ga-Southern (0-12, last in SoCon)

So, yes, of these first 11 games, the best win for AN SEC TEAM was a 2-point home win against a 7-4 Sun Belt team.  Their other two wins were home wins against the worst team in the Atlantic Sun and the worst team in the SoCon.  The latter was a 4-point win against Ga-Southern, who is 0-12 in the SoCon, with all 12 losses by at least 4 points.  And, of the nine teams that beat Auburn, only two of them having winning records in their own league.  They have HOME LOSSES to the 7th place team in the A-Sun, the 8th place team in the Big South, and the 10th place team in the SoCon.  Wow!  And, yes, somehow, they went into South Carolina and got a victory.  By the way, even with a tough SEC schedule, the Tigers have an RPI of 281 (out of 341), just above South Alabama and UC-Davis.  They are only slightly worse than Stony Brook, Savannah State, Florida Gulf Coast, and Samford.  But, then again, they did lose at home to Samford, so I guess it makes sense.

7). Atlantic 10
The A-10 boasts four teams that should make The Dance and at least four or more solid postseason teams, before falling off to a combination of bad teams, underachieving teams, or both.

  • Most Pleasantly Surprising:  Duquesne (16-6, 8-1)
    An easy choice, as the Dukes are one of the most surprising teams in the country this year.  Just this week, they dropped their first conference game – at St. Bonaventure – but up until then, they were undefeated including wins over Temple and Dayton.  However, we should wait to dub them that good, as they have yet to play either Xavier, Richmond, Rhode Island, or UMass, and their Temple and Dayton wins were at home.  Either way, a 16-6 Duquesne team that sits atop the A-10 standings is a surprise in anyone’s book.
  • Most Disappointing:  St. Louis (8-15, 3-7)
    As bad as St. Joe’s and Fordham have played and as utterly disappointing as Charlotte has been, Rick Majerus’s Bilikens have to be the most disappointing A-10 team this year.  After a strong finish to the season last year, with all underclassmen, SLU was supposed to contend for an A-10 title this year, but had a dreadful run through the non-conference and have not really found any magic during conference play.

8). Pac-10
For the Pac-10 to be the 8th best conference is a real statement as to how fall this league has fallen.  And, the worst part is – this conference is better this year than it was last year. 

  • Most Pleasantly Surprising:  Arizona (20-4, 9-2)
    Sean Miller has quickly revitalized the Arizona program and is heading back to the tournament after only a one year absence.  The best team in the Pac-10 was not supposed to be this resurgent this quickly, but Derrick Williams is an absolute stud, who will be taking his talents to The Association next year.  But, for now, the ‘Cats are back.
  • Most Disappointing:  Arizona State (9-14, 1-10)
    The other team from the desert has not exactly had much of a season.  1-10 so far in conference play has made many forget that this team was in the NCAA Second Round as recently as 2009.  Herb Sendak’s team has an RPI of just 158 – lower than such teams as Quinnipiac, Northeastern, and Yale.  The professors at ASU (at least the ones I know) might be on a par with those at Yale, but their basketball team should be a lot better.

9). Colonial
My love for the next two conferences on this list runs deep, so I have to admit, I may have overrated them a bit, but I will defend vehemently that games in these two conferences – particularly the CAA – are absolutely brutal with the depth and talent in the league.  I would challenge any team in the country, including Ohio State or Duke or whomever, to 16+ games in this conference.

  • Most Pleasantly Surprising:  Drexel (16-8, 8-6)
    There is a clear separation between the top four teams in this conference (VCU, George Mason, Old Dominion, and Hofstra), but after that there is another cluster of teams that is really tough and can play with anyone nationwide, led by Drexel and James Madison.  I think the Dragons have had the most surprising season this year, as they were picked for 10th in this league in the preseason, but the Dragons had a very good non-conference run (wins over decent teams in Loyola, Md and Rider and the big one at Louisville) and, despite a couple heartbreakers in conference play, sit tied for 5th at 8-6.
  • Biggest Disappoinment:  Towson (4-20, 0-14)
    No one expected Towson to compete for a CAA title, but they have been monumentally bad.  A bad non-conference has spilled into a 0-14 conference record.  And, this team was picked in the middle of the pack in the preseason…ouch.

10). Missouri Valley
The other conference for which I have a strange affinity is The Valley.  I just think this conference is brutal to run though every year and the conference winner is usually so battle-tested that they are ready to take on the big boys under the bright lights, which has resulted in four seperate Valley programs reaching the Sweet 16 in just the last five years (Northern Iowa in 2010, Southern Illinois in 2007, and Wichita State and Bradley in 2006).  This year might be no different, as if I were a “big boy,” I would be terrified to see Missouri State or Wichita State in my section of the draw.

  • Most Pleasantly Surprising:  Indiana State (13-12, 8-6)
    This is likely to change because the Sycamores are falling back to earth after an unbelievable start to the season, but for now, they will edge Evansville (also 8-6 in conference) for the most surprising Valley team.  Larry Bird’s alma mater has conference wins over Creighton, Northern Iowa, and Missouri State.  They have fallen back recently and this conference is brutally tough, so their tournament chances are very slim, but still a great season for a team picked last in the conference.
  • Most Disappointing:  Bradley (8-17, 2-12)
    Creighton, at 7-7, has also been disappointing, but the Braves of Bradley have certainly been the most disappointing.  They have rebounded to actually win back-to-back games against Creighton and at Southern Illinois, but it is far too little and far too late after losing their first TWELVE conference games.

11). Conference USA
Thanks to a pretty solid non-conference season for the conference, as a whole, C-USA actually sits at #8 in the conference RPI pecking order, but I do not believe that they are the eight best conference in America, and it will probably be best shown on Selection Sunday when all ten conferences that I have ranked ahead of them get multiple bids, while the C-USA sits and wonders how they only got one.  The perennial dominator of this conference, Memphis, is supposed to have had the talent to dominate again, but it just has not come together for the young Tigers team.  A lot was expected of UTEP and Larry Eustachy’s Southern Miss this year, and, though they have both been “good,” neither has been “great.”  And, then there is UCF – more on them in a minute.

  • Most Pleasantly Surprising:  UAB (17-6, 7-3)
    The Blazers were supposed to take a step backward (even from a disappointing season last year) because of three key losses to graduation and the biggest loss of all, Elijah Millsap, who turned pro after his junior year only to see himself go undrafted and forfeit his senior year of eligibility.  But, Mike Davis has done a good job with the holdovers, as they are right in the hunt for a conference title having already knocked off UTEP and swept Marshall.
  • Most Disappointing:  UCF (14-8, 1-8)
    Everyone probably knows what Marcus Jordan and UCF did in the non-conference.  The Knights entered C-USA play undefeated (13-0) and nationally ranked (#19).  Then, people may know that they then picked up a nice home win over Marshall to start conference play.  But, after their second conference game – a 5-point loss at Houston – knocked them out of the rankings and off the national radar, most people probably do not realize just how bad things have spiraled out of control.  Wednesday’s 1-point loss to Memphis was the Knights eighth straight loss and they currently sit DEAD LAST in Conference USA, with a 1-8 conference record.  Overall, because of their great start and relatively low preseason expectations, this season might not be as disappointing as the rough year for the promising Marshall and Tulsa programs, but considering where they were on January 5th, this has been a devastating month for the Knights program.

12). Horizon League
A league that might not get the attention it deserves because of the struggles of its flagship program, Butler, is actually having a terrific year, even if the Bulldogs have been inexplicably bad.  Valparaiso, Cleveland State, and Wright State are all capable of beating anyone in the country on any given night, and this conference, as usual, is a tough place to get road wins.

  • Most Pleasantly Surprising:  Cleveland State (21-5, 10-4)
    The Vikings of CSU have been very good from the opening tip this year.  They currently trail Valpo in the Horizon standings, but had a better non-conference and their consequential gaudy RPI (33) should put them into at-large discussion.
  • Most Disappointing:  Butler (16-9, 8-5)
    Was Gordon Hayward that good?  While it is not quite as bad as it seems for Butler right now, they really have put themselves behind the eight-ball here in an effort to repeat a Final Four run from a year ago with basically the same team minus Hayward.  Home losses to Evansville and UW-Milwaukee might be the killers in their at-large campaign.  Also, when your best wins are home wins over Florida State and Stanford (albeit by 33), you may have trouble making a case.  The key for the Bulldogs (and everyone else in this conference) is finishing in the top 2 in the league, as the Horizon has the brilliant layout of awarding the top two teams double-byes in the conference tournament.  Right now, it is Valpo and CSU, but Butler and Wright State are both knocking on the door.

13). West Coast Conference
Typically the Gonzaga Conference, this year has been a lot different, and (probably thanks to the ‘Zags) this conference is much-improved top-to-bottom.  The two San Fran area teams – USF and Santa Clara – are tough and Portland is pretty good, as well.  But, there is a new dominant WCC team:

  • Most Pleasantly Surprising:  St. Mary’s (20-4, 8-1)
    The Gaels have followed up their Sweet 16 run with another fantastic season, even though they lost the folk hero, Omar Samhan.  Mickey McConnell and Matthew Delavadova are a pair of Jimmers without the noteriety.  They can score from anywhere on the court, and St. Mary’s runs a great uptempo offense to take advantage of their skills.  This team is dangerous.
  • Most Disappointing:  Gonzaga (15-9, 5-3)
    While Loyola Marymount has probably been even more disappointing than the Zags, what fun would it be to pile on a 1-8 team that was picked 2nd in the WCC?  Also, San Diego is dreadful, but that is no fun to talk about either.  It is more fun to pick on the team that was supposed to continue its domination of this conference only to lose at home to St. Mary’s and then get swept in a trip to NoCal by USF and Santa Clara.  And, the non-conference was not a ton better and the NCAA tournament streak for the Bulldogs is in a lot of trouble.

14). WAC
It is getting harder to actually rank these conferences against each other, so I am going with the one conference that has a legitimate national power this year.  Utah State is nationally ranked and deservedly so (even with their loss at Idaho this week).  They are going to be a force come March…if they make it out of the WAC.

  • Most Pleasantly Surprising:  Idaho (14-10, 7-5)
    Utah State is easily the best team in this conference – and it is not even close – but they were expected to be.  Idaho was supposed to be one of the worst teams in D-I, but the Vandals have circled the wagons and are playing some really good basketball.  After ending the conference unbeaten record of USU this week, the Vandals now find themselves only one-half game out of second place (and a double-bye in the conference tournament) in the WAC.  The Kibbie Dome is rocking in Moscow, ID, this year.
  • Most Disappointing:  Nevada (9-14, 6-4)
    While the Wolfpack has righted the ship a little in the non-conference, this team was really bad in the non-conference and should have given USU more of a run for the regular season title.

15). Ivy League
Not sure how many people watched the Penn-Princeton game Tuesday night, but I did, and it was fantastic!  As much as I love the conference tournaments (and I DO love them), there is still something to be said for a winner-take-all regular season and what that does to random Tuesday night games in the beginning of February.  That game looked like a semifinal or final of a conference tournament and, honestly, may have the same ramifications.  In case you didn’t see it, Penn went on a 14-3 run to send the game to OT only to lose on a questionable technical foul call at the end (with less than a minute to play, Penn had the ball with no timeouts in a tie game…diving for a loose ball, a Penn player recovered it, yelled to his teammates NOT to call a time out and the ref mistakenly heard “time out” and blew the whistle – crazy).  The Ivy League has three outstanding teams this year, and whichever one wins the auto-bid will give whomever they face in the first round a real test.

  • Most Pleasantly Surprising:  Harvard (16-4, 5-1)
    Harvard has followed up a terrific non-conference with a very good start to conference play.  They went 11-3 in the non-conference, including wins over Colorado (by 16), Fordham (by 23), BU (by 16) and @Boston College (by 11).  And, of their three losses (@George Mason, @Michigan, and @UConn), none of them would even resemble a “bad loss.”  Now, in conference play, the Crimson is 5-1, with their only loss to league-leading Princeton in New Jersey.  They won at the Palestra on Saturday, 83-82, in a double-OT thriller to put them in a position to possibly win this conference.
  • Most Disappointing:  Cornell (5-15, 1-5)
    No one expected anything close to what Big Red did last year, as everyone graduated and Coach Donohue was too tempted by ACC riches and left for BC.  But, no one expected them to be this bad, either.  A brutally bad non-conference has spilled over into an equally bad start to conference play for Cornell.

16). Ohio Valley
While the depth of the OVC is something to really question, this conference has a top half that can challenge any mid-major, particularly its two best – Murray State and Morehead State

  • Most Pleasantly Surprising:  Austin Peay (15-11, 9-5)
    While the Colonels have come back to life here recently, they were leading this conference for most of the first 6 weeks of conference play and have beaten both Murray and Morehead already.
  • Most Disappointing:  Eastern Illinois (8-15, 4-9)
    Supposed to at least make it interesting for the top teams in the OVC this year, the Panthers have been really bad, including being swept by lowly SE Missouri State.

17). Summit League
I might be a little higher on this league than most because I get some of their games on TV and love watching the best of this league battle, but I do believe that Oakland would test anyone in the country on any given night, and IUPUI, Oral Roberts, and IPFW are all solid programs with good teams again this year.

  • Most Pleasantly Surprising:  IPFW (16-8, 9-4)
    This league was expected, as usual, to be a three-team race between Oakland, Oral Roberts, and IUPUI, but IPFW has made it a four-team affair, mostly on the strength of a season sweep of ORU.
  • Most Disappointing:  Centenary (0-25, 0-13)
    This team was supposed to be last in the conference, so their last place position now is not disappointing, but any time you are 0-25 for a season, you have to be considered a disappoinment.

18). Mid-American
The MAC had the potential to rise up to true mid-major status (similar to the CAA or MVC), but they just have not sustained any momentum for whatever reason.  Kent State, clearly the best team in this conference, is not even close to the at-large radar.

  • Most Pleasantly Surprising:  Buffalo (14-7, 7-3)
    The MAC’s divisions are, like the SEC, very unbalanced.  The East is FAR superior to the West and yet Buffalo is still very much in contention for the Eastern title.  They also had a decent non-conference, though their two highlights were their close road losses – 8 points to BYU and 2 points to St. Bonaventure, who is pretty tough in Olean.
  • Most Disappointing:  Ohio (12-12, 5-5)
    While Central Michigan and Akron have also been major disappointments, Ohio has to be the most disappointing, considering they returned most of the team that beat Georgetown in the tournament last year.  They have rebounded to get back to .500, but they still sit in last place in the East.

19). Southern Conference
The SoCon is probably best known for Stephen Curry and the Davidson Elite Eight team a couple years ago, but this is a solid conference every year, with this year being no exception.  Probably the three best teams are all in the South Division (College of Charleston, Wofford, and Furman), so it is going to make for an interesting conference tournament, but Chattanooga, who leads the North, is also had a solid season.  And, then there is Davidson – hanging around in fourth place in the South, but with some talent.

  • Most Pleasantly Surprising:  Furman (17-7, 9-4)
    The Paladins might be on their way to a 20-win season in a year where they were picked for fifth out of six in the tough South Division.  They have already swept a decent Citadel team and beaten preseason favorite Wofford on the road.  However, they currently sit third in the South, which means that they would, as it stands now, not have a first-round bye in the conference tournament.
  • Most Disappointing:  Appalachian State (10-13, 6-7)
    App State was picked to win the North Division and, despite a bad non-conference season, looked like they were on their way to doing so when they went 3-1 in their first four conference games with three on the road.  But, since then, the wheels kind of fell off, capped off by a terrible home loss to 5-18 UNC-Greensboro.  But, they are only 1.5 games out of second-place (and a first-round bye in the conference tournament) and all five of their remaining conference games are at home, so we will see if they can yet turn this around.

20). Big South
The next two conferences are very, very close, and it was very hard to pick one for #19 and one for #20.  I went with the overall depth of the conference over a strong, but top-heavy conference.  But, in the end, what probably propelled the Big South to #19 was the fact that they have one of the best mid-major teams that no one is talking about.  The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are 23-2 and 13-0 in a decent Big South.  Their only two losses all year were road games at Georgetown and College of Charleston.  At least one of the nation’s best teams is going to be keenly aware of how good this Chanticleer team is come March.

  • Most Pleasantly Surprising:  Liberty (17-8, 11-2)
    It was not supposed to be like this for Liberty this year.  They lost several key members to graduation and one key member to transfer – you may have heard of him, Seth Curry, I think he plays for some team named Duke.  But, the Flames have regrouped and been, clearly, the second-best team in the Big South this year.  Their only two conference losses are to Coastal Carolina and they sit four games ahead of a pack of teams in third place.
  • Most Disappointing:  Presbyterian (10-15, 4-9)
    It is hard to blame the players at Presbyterian for their utterly disappointing season, as they had strived for what this year could have been for five years only to find out that their dream had become a nightmare.  As recounted nicely by Dana O’Neill, the Blue Hose seniors came to Presbyterian (then a D-I transitional school) five years ago with the plan to redshirt one year and by the time they were 5th-year seniors, the team would have full D-I status and they would compete for a chance to play in the Big Dance.  Well, the administration dropped the ball and they are not eligible, so it is hard to blame them for their terribly disappointing season, but it is still, well, a terribly disappointing season.  This team should be challenging for the conference title, but they are mired in 8th place, with a 4-9 conference record.

21). Atlantic Sun
The A-Sun is a bit top-heavy, but its top is, by low-major standards, very, very good.  Belmont is a legitimate threat to pull off a first-round upset, while East Tennessee State, Jacksonville, and Lipscomb are among the better low-major teams in the country.  The rest of the conference is a bit shaky, especially the bottom, as USC-Upstate, Kennessaw State, and D-I newcomer, Florida Gulf Coast are not really very good at all.

  • Most Pleasantly Surprising:  Belmont (22-4, 14-1)
    They were supposed to compete for the title…not run away with the title.  Belmost, from the very beginning of the season, has been the A-Sun’s best team and they are two full games ahead of anyone else in the conference.  Their only loss was to their arch-rival across town, Lipscomb, in a rivalry game that warranted mention in a recent BSB post about the best sports rivalries.
  • Most Disappointing:  Kennessaw State (6-17, 4-9)
    After a shocking first-round upset of top-seeded Lipscomb in the A-Sun quarterfinals last year, KSU was looking to parlay that into a possible run at a regular season title this year.  However, they have been rather bad and, as it stands now, would not even qualify for the A-Sun tournament this year.

22). MAAC
I am not sure if I have undersold the MAAC here, as their conference RPI is actually #16, but I just do not see that many real contenders for national attention in this conference.  Fairfield is the best team in the conference and Rider, Iona, St. Peter’s, and Loyola (Md) are having good seasons, but nothing to really shine nationally.  What I do see, however, are some really, really bad teams at the bottom, as Marist, Manhattan, and Niagara have to be three of the worst D-I teams in America this year.

  • Most Pleasantly Surprising:  Loyola (Md) (12-11, 8-5)
    A underwhelming non-conference for the Greyhounds has now given way to a surprisingly good conference season.  Picked 7th in the preseason, Loyola is only a game out of second-place, and they are the only team in the conference with wins over Fairfield, Iona, and St. Peter’s.
  • Most Disappointing:  Siena (10-13, 7-6)
    There was expected to be a dropoff in Albany with the departure of coach Fran McCaffery to Iowa, but it was not supposed to be a cliff.  The Saints have been barely mediocre this year, after dominating the MAAC for several years now.  Sitting at sixth place in the conference, they are in jeopardy of actually playing in the first-round of the MAAC tournament (if they fall to seventh).

23). Big West
It has been an incredibly strange season in the Big West this year.  It seems like every team has been up and down the standings all year…except one.  Long Beach State has been atop the Big West from the very beginning, and Dan Monson’s team continues to hold on to the top spot, even as the rest of the league shuffles, seemingly, every week.

  • Most Pleasantly Surprising:  CS-Northridge (9-14, 6-4)
    The non-conference went the way most people expected the whole season would go for the Matadors, as they were a lowly 3-10 entering Big West play.  Picked for last in the conference, no one expected anything else.  But, then conference play began and the team started playing really well.  Right now, they sit in a tie for second place in the conference.
  • Most Disappointing:  UC-Santa Barbara (12-9, 5-5)
    This could easily have go to Pacific also, as the two teams were picked 1-2 in the conference and both are mired at 5-5.  I went with UCSB because they were the preseason pick to win the league and have been swept by Pacific.  There is still a lot of time to right the ship here, so expect the Gouchos (and the Tigers of Pacific) to get right back into the thick of it here, but for now, it has just been one disappointment.

24). Big Sky
It was supposed to be a grueling four-team war for Big Sky supremacy this year between Weber State, Northern Arizona, and the two Montana schools.  And, while those four are in the mix, they are all chasing someone else…

  • Most Pleasantly Surprising:  Northern Colorado (13-9, 9-2)
    The “other UNC” has come out of nowhere to take a full game lead in the Big Sky this year.  And, with the tournament played at campus sites, the top spot is that much more important.  UNC has already beaten both Montana school and Weber State, but have yet to beat any of the “big four” on the road, so their tests are still ahead of them.
  • Most Disappointing:  Montana State (11-12, 5-6)
    Off to a 4-0 start in conference play, it looked like the Bobcats might be the class of the Big Sky.  But, a 1-6 record since, including a devastating loss to last-place Idaho State, has left MSU in fifth-place and staring at having to win three straight road games to win the Big Sky’s auto-bid.

25). NEC
I love the NEC.  Twelve teams with travel partners, who play every Thursday and Sunday, and, even though the quality of basketball is not top-notch, league games are fiercely competitive.  This year, the favorite, Quinnipiac, had a fantastic non-conference season, but has not brought that dominance to the NEC.  Long Island and Central Connecticut State have been the two dominant teams in the NEC this year.

  • Most Pleasantly Surprising:  Wagner (12-12, 8-5)
    How is a .500 team the most pleasantly surprising?  Well, first of all, they were picked 10th in the conference.  Secondly, they currently sit in third-place in a jam-packed conference, with some stellar wins on their resume.  Will they be able to sustain this play?  Nobody knows, but for now, they have to be the pleasant surprise of the NEC.
  • Most Disappointing:  Farleigh Dickinson (4-20, 2-11)
    The Dukes of FDU were picked to be somewhere in the middle of the pack and, if everything broke right, may have even competed for a conference title.  But, the reality is that they are simply awful.  An RPI of 323 (out of 345) is downright embarrassing, and they are headed for not even qualifying for the NEC tournament.

26). America East
Back to what we know about the America East – Vermont is the team to beat.  BU, Maine, and Stony Brook were getting the love in the preseason, but UVM has risen to the top yet again.

  • Most Pleasantly Surprising:  Vermont (20-5, 11-2)
    Ho-hum another 20-win season and, most likely, another AmEast regular season title for the Catamounts.  But, this year is different.  They were picked for 5th place in the league in the preseason, but, from the very beginning, showed that they were still the team to beat.  A good non-conference schedule led right into a, thus far, dominant AmEast campaign.  Expect the Catamounts to be a somewhat scary 15/16-seed come March.
  • Most Disappointing:  UMBC (5-20, 4-8)
    It has only been two-plus years since the Retrievers ran away with the America East and earned themselves a first-round date with Roy Hibbert, Jeff Green, and the rest of the Final Four-bound Hoyas.  Now, though they were not expected to really contend, they are faced with a 20-loss (and counting) season.

27). Sun Belt
With the loss of New Orleans to the D-III ranks, the Sun Belt now has a more normal 12 teams – in two divisions.  But, abnormal is what made this conference great.  Now, it just falls into the ranks of any other low-major conference.  And, with down years from the two preeminent programs of the Sun Belt (and easily two of the best nicknames in the country), the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and the Ragin’ Cajuns of LA-Lafayette, the Sun Belt is just plain ordinary this year.

  • Most Pleasantly Surprising:  Florida Atlantic (18-7, 10-1)
    FAU has come out of nowhere to fill the void of a down WKU team this year and have pretty much dominated the Sun Belt from day one.  They lead the Eastern Division by three games, with their only loss coming to the Hilltoppers (who are currently 5-5 in conference play).
  • Most Disappointing:  North Texas (16-7, 5-5)
    While WKU and LA-Lafayette have definitely been disappointing, the disappointment of the Mean Green runs a little deeper.  They had a terrific non-conference and must have seen the wide-open situation in the Sun Belt with no real dominant teams at all this year.  But, they have had a very disappointing first 10 games of conference play, capped by a really bad loss to Troy.  There is time to recover and a wide-open conference tournament to play, so this might yet be the season they expected, but right now, it is just a big disappointment.

28). Patriot League
The more the Patriot League changes, the more it stays the same.  Bucknell and American have been battling for the better part of this decade for PL supremacy, and they are doing it again.  Bucknell is two full games ahead, though, as a result of a season sweep of the Eagles.  The rest of the league, as usual, is jam-packed.

  • Most Pleasantly Surprising:  Bucknell (17-8, 8-1)
    Honestly, much like UVM in the AmEast, it is hard to really be surprised by Bucknell leading the Patriot League.  But, the preseason predictions had the Bison at #5, and they have clearly been the best team in the PL this year.  The non-conference was decent (wins over BU and LaSalle were the highlights), but their domination in a decent PL this year has been pretty thorough, as they just completed a season sweep of second-place American.
  • Most Disappointing:  Holy Cross (5-18, 4-5)
    One of the teams picked ahead of Bucknell in the preseason prognostications was Holy Cross, and while the Crusaders have been okay in conference play, their non-conference was absolutely dreadful.  They were 1-13 outside the PL, and it is not like they played a brutal schedule.  Yet, somehow their 305 RPI is not the worst in the conference (Colgate is 306).

29). MEAC
And, now we get into the really low-majors.  The MEAC, while not a very good conference may actually have risen this year to being closer to the Sun Belt and Patriot League than it is to the Southland and SWAC.  There are at least three pretty good low-major teams (Morgan State, Hampton, and Bethune-Cookman) in this conference and at least three or four more decent teams (Coppin State, Delaware State, and maybe N.C. A&T or Norfolk State).

  • Most Pleasantly Surprising:  Coppin State (11-11, 6-4)
    Picked 8th in this conference, no one really expected much from Coppin this year (which is sad because they pour a decent amount of money, considering the conference, into the basketball program), but the Eagles have been pretty good all year.  Their conference season is highlighted by good road wins over Bethune-Cookman and Delaware State, and they enter the second-half of conference play in fourth place and only two games back of league-leading Hampton.
  • Most Disappointing:  MD-Eastern Shore (6-17, 3-7)
    There were two very good choices for this selection here, as South Carolina State returned most of the team that went to the MEAC finals last year, but sits dead-last this year, which is pretty disappointing.  But, for the most disappointing, I went with MD-Eastern Shore because of a bit of history.  This team has been the doormat of the MEAC since its entrance into the league.  But, last year, they finished 8-8 in league play and sixth place (out of last-place for the first time).  They even won their first-round MEAC tournament game over Coppin State before bowing, by three, to eventual finalists South Carolina State.  And, this year, they set their sights on possibly even competing for a MEAC title.  But, it has gone very wrong, as their bad non-conference turned into a bad conference season, as well.  Now, they are 3-7 in league play and only one game ahead of S.C. State for last place – a spot that they could not bear to fall back to after last year’s rivival.

30). Southland
The Southland this year is like flipping coins.  With the exception of Central Arkansas, who is a dreadful 1-9, the whole rest of the league is separated by just three games.  Texas A&M – Corpus Christie is in 11th place and only 3 games back of the two league leaders, Northwestern State and Texas State – San Marcos.  The problem for the Southland this year is that they have three decent low-major teams, Stephen F. Austin, Sam Houston State, and Southeastern Louisiana, and all three have been rather disappointing in conference play.

  • Most Pleasantly Surprising:  UT-San Antonio (12-10, 5-4)
    Not expected to much this year, UT-San Antonio is only one game out of first-place and has wins over both league leaders.  They have some big games upcoming, so we will see if the Roadrunners are truly contenders.  And, yes, that last sentence was just to get their awesome nickname in this paragraph somewhere.
  • Biggest Disappointment:  Lamar (9-13, 3-5)
    Yes, Stephen F. Austin, Sam Houston State, and SE Louisiana are far and away the three best teams in this league and are in the bottom half of the standings, but they are all in striking distanace and should be able to at least qualify for the Southland Conference tournament, so they can play their way in.  Lamar, despite lofty preseason expectations, and a 3-0 start to the conference schedule, has lost five in a row and is in serious jeopardy of not even making the trip to Katy, TX, for the tournament.

31). SWAC
It is hard to imagine that a conference could be worse that the SWAC (and there really is not, as they are the worst of the conferences that receive auto-bids).  This conference is just routine cannon fodder for the SEC and the Big XII in the non-conference (not sure why they all schedule such ridiculous opponents).  And, they even provide easy W’s for the Big South and the A-Sun and SoCon.  However, there three relatively decent low-major teams in the conference (Jackson State, Texas-Southern, and Mississippi Valley State).  Other than those three, though, all seven other teams are among the bottom 43 teams in RPI, including four of the bottom 14.

  • Most Pleasantly Surprising:  Texas-Southern (11-10, 9-1)
    Texas-Southern was not exactly picked to compete in the SWAC this year, but they have led the conference from the start.  Their only loss was at Mississippi Valley State (a strong choice for this spot, too considering they were picked 7th in the SWAC and are only 1.5 games out of the top spot), and they beat preseason favorite Jackson State in their first meeting.  We will learn a lot about this conference on Saturday when Texas-Southern visits Jackson State with the SWAC’s top spot on the line.
  • Most Disappointing:  Prairie View A&M (6-17, 3-7)
    A veteran team that was supposed to push Jackson State for the conference title was terrible in the non-conference and has been just as bad in conference play.  Sitting at 335 in the RPI is not what you expected from a team that was supposed to compete for its first ever conference title. 

32). Great West
This almost does not count, as the Great West is not a conference that receives and automatic bid, and only has seven teams.  But, it is a D-I conference, and I love D-I college basketball, so we should at least talk about it.  First of all, it is very strange in its composition.  Even though it is called the “Great West,” it incorporates all directions of the USA.  One of the teams in the Great West is the New Jersey Institute of Technology in Jersey City, NJ.  Two of the other teams are Texas-Pan American in Edinburg, TX, and the University of North Dakota in Grand Forks, ND.  UTPA is about 20 miles from the Mexican border, while UND is about 75 miles from the Canadian border.  So, this conference has teams on the easternmost, southernmost, and northermost border of the United States.  In fact, the only “direction” not really covered is, well, west.  In fact, Utah Valley is the only school that could even be considered western at all.  Very strange.

  • Most Pleasantly Surprising:  North Dakota (11-10, 4-1)
    Not a great non-conference, but UND has swept their neighbors and rivals South Dakota and picked up two other wins en route to a 4-1 start to conference play.  They trail Utah Valley, clearly the best team in the conference, by just 1 game and none in the loss column.
  • Most Disappointing:  Texas-Pan American (4-21, 1-7)
    Well, it is official, the worst D-I basketball in the country is played in the Great West conference in the state of Texas.  Houston Baptist has the worst RPI in the country, but is not in last place in their conference.  That ignominious distinction belongs to Texas-Pan American, which has the second-worst RPI in the country and trails HB by a full game in the Great West standings.  In case you are dying to know, the two teams split the season series, each winning at home.  Unfortunately, these games were not televised in my area…
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Thoughts on Super Bowl XLV

Usually the Super Bowl excited me for the commercials first and the game a distant second.  But, this year is all about the game.  This one is going to be fantastic!  We have two incredible teams who have a great divergence in strengths, making for a fascinating matchup.  So, a couple random thoughts leading up to what should be, beneath all the ridiculous pageantry of this day, strictly a great football game.

Not to Toot My Own Horn, But…
It is very rare that I will talk about any great personal “predictions” on this site (not by choice or humility–by a lack of any good predictions), but this one I have to bring up.  On September 11, 2010 – before Week One – I wrote a post laying out my playoff predictions for the upcoming season.  And, my Super Bowl prediction was Green Bay over Pittsburgh.  What does this mean?  Absolutely nothing.  In fact, when I realized this and told my wife that I nailed this Super Bowl prediction more than 4 months ago, she cooly responded with “If you’re so smart, why didn’t you put money on it?”  Good point…I’ve got nothing in response.

My Pick Now
In that preview section, I predicted a blowout Green Bay win, 31-7, with Aaron Rodgers having a big day and Roethlisberger having a karmically terrible day (mostly because I can’t stand the stories of that night in Georgia).  However, I am going to completely ruin my “great pick” here by flip-flopping in the 11th hour.  I really like the Steelers tonight.  Maybe not by a lot, but I think the Steelers are just a better team.  Most of why will be expressed in the following post, but put me down for Pittsburgh 24 – Green Bay 20.

Aaron Rodgers – Am I Missing Something?
Look, I think Aaron Rodgers is great.  Before the season started, I thought he would be league MVP and Super Bowl MVP.  I think he’s going to be a top five (or better) quarterback in this league.  But, let’s really look at this playoff run.  If you listen to just about anyone with an opinion, you will think he has completely recreated the quarterback position by playing better than anyone ever has.  Is it me or is this crazy?  Am I the only one who thinks that he has been “good,” but not “great” in two of the three playoff games to which everyone refers.  In fact, I have watched all 12 playoff quarters of Rodgers this year, and I thought he was absolutely fantastic in 7 of those quarters (4 of which were in that Atlanta game).  But, in 5 of the 8 quarters not played in Atlanta, he was dowright mediocre.  He was outstanding in the first half of the Eagles game, but he was not very good in the second half, including a sack-fumble and a couple of bad three-and-outs, that led them to only an underthrown Vick pass away from being eliminated in the first round.  In fact, in that whole game, he only led three drives into scoring position, they just were fortunate (or good) enough to convert those three into 21 points, while the Eagles turned 6 drives into scoring position into only 16 points (2 TDs, 1 FG, 2 missed FGs, and one INT in the endzone).  Then, in the Bears game, Rodgers was TERRIFIC in the first 19 minutes, going up 14-0, but was very mediocre after that, as the offense didn’t score a single point in the final 41 minutes, as they nearly blew the game to some guy named Caleb Haney.  I think we might be a little fooled by the quick starts and the almost perfect game in Atlanta.  But, honestly, Rodgers has definitely been good this postseason, but all in all, most of his numbers were against a questionable Atlanta defense that clearly wasn’t ready to play – the Steelers are a different animal.

The Year of the Defense
2010 in baseball was famously the “Year of the Pitcher.”  Well, not so famously, the 2010 NFL season may have been the “Year of the Defense.”  The 4 best defenses were the final four teams alive in the NFL, with the best two defenses playing on Super Bowl Sunday.  In fact, with the exception of the strange Seattle win over New Orleans, I would argue that the better defense has won all 10 playoff games this year.  And, that is another reason why I think the Steelers will win – they are the only team in the NFL with a better defense than Green Bay.  With all due respect to Stewart Bradley (huh?), the argument can be made that the FOUR best defensive players in the world will be playing today, in the 2008 Defensive Player of the Year (James Harrison), the 2009 Defensive POY (Charles Woodson), and the top 2 for this year’s Defensive POY (Troy Polamalu and Cla Matthews).

The Steelers D
This defense is incredible.  The Pack got a great game from James Starks against the Birds.  Do not expect that today, even though we will see a lot of attempts.  Mike McCarthy (surprisingly, since he is from the same school as Coach Reid), believes in rushing attempts regardless of the success.  So, expect a combined 25 carries for 48 yards from Starks and Brandon Jackson tonight.  I do not expect much more, so it is all on Rodgers.

Packers D
This defense is also fantastic and has not gotten as much credit as they deserve because of Rodgers.  But, Matthews and Woodson are absolute studs.  They will attack Ben on every play.  B.J. Raji might be the most important player on this side of the ball, and he gets to attack a backup center (more on this later).  Plus, the Packers do have better corners, so they are freer to bring the heat with no problem.  Tramon Williams is a complete stud and we all know everything about Woodson.

Rashard Mendenhall
On the other side, the Steelers have a running back in whom I do trust.  Mendenhall (at least for the first half) was by far the best player on the field against the Jets in the AFC Championship Game.  The Jets are one of the best tackling defenses in the NFL, and Mendenhall shredded them, breaking tackles left and right.  This O-line for the Steelers is questionable, but Mendenhall has the ability to create yards without big holes.  He is something that the Packers just do not have.

Doug Legursky
A lot has been said about the loss of Maurkice Pouncey, the Steelers rookie Pro Bowl center.  And, honestly, this is a HUGE loss.  However, it might not be quite as big as it may initially appear.  Yes, there were snap issues (especially in pressure situations – like at the goal line) last week when Legursky came in to replace Pouncey.  But, this is much different.  Legursky came in to replace Pouncey in the AFC Championship Game against a ferocious defense.  He was so green and worried about blocking schemes, having only taken mental reps all week.  But, with Pouncey out, Legursky has now taken the physical reps with the first team for two weeks.  Snap issues probably won’t be a problem.  What might be a problem, however, is recognition of blitz schemes (a 3-4 is very difficult to read and very dependent upon the center) and the on the second level.  The difference between Legursky and Pouncey may not be recognizable to the fan that knows nothing about the o-line (including Yours Truly), but from what I have heard the big difference between the two is that Pouncey is a freak athlete.  So, the difference will probably be in the Mendenhall runs that go for 4 yards behind Legursky that may have been sprung for 13 (or more) with Pouncey, who can get into the second level and lay out a LB or DB.

The Most Interesting X-O Facet of this Game – Will the Packers Spread the Steelers Out?
The Green Bay offensive coaching staff has a very interesting dilemma here.  Do they throw out 4- or 5-receiver sets in an attempt to exploit mismatches by getting guys like Greg Jennings or Jordy Nelson on linebackers?  Or, do they throw in a lot of max protection packages to try and keep their QB upright?  It really is a fascinating dilemma and a decision that I am glad I do not have to make.  The Steelers are so relentless and so aggressive that you want to protect Rodgers (who has been concussed twice – at least – this year).  Also, Rodgers looks a lot different after big hits (like the Peppers hit in Chicago).  But, if you can get Jennings in the slot on a LB, you might have an 80-yard touchdown.  Personally, I would probably side to max protect early and see if we can move the ball with 2 receivers on short slants and if not, then roll the dice and throw Jordy Nelson and James Jones on the field.

Heath Miller
The “experts” all say that the Packers biggest weakness on defense is how they handle the tight end, so Heath Miller might play a huge role in this game.  In fact, Vegas is rooting against that, as they seemed to set a pretty bad line on Heath Miller here.  They had a prop bet on total receiving yards for Miller that opened at 21.5.  Over the two weeks of betting, apparently there was HEAVY money on the over and the line has nearly doubled to 42.5 today.

The Packers Team Photo
First of all, I hate this story.  Who cares?  They fixed it and it is over.  However, it is telling, and what it shows is the difference between a team that has been there (the Steelers) and a team that has not (the Packers).  Mike Tomlin and company would know exactly how to deal with this, while the Packers seemed “too focused on being focused,” if that makes sense.  Experience counts and coaching…give me the Steelers – on both fronts.

Great Super Bowl
No matter what happens, I think we are in for a great Super Bowl.  There are two cities that absolutely LIVE AND DIE with their football teams.  The residents of Green Bay actually own the team.  These are two cities in the middle of the rust belt and hit hard by the economic downturn.  As annoying as the bandwagon Steelers fans are, the true fans are maybe the best in the entire NFL.  And the Packers fans are right there with them.  There are two FANTASTIC teams, and this going to be a classic.

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Wait…Who?!?

I don’t even know how to express an opinion on this one.

The Eagles promoted offensive line coach, Juan Castillo, to defensive coordinator.  Yes, you read that right.  Offensive line coach promoted to defensive coordinator.

Yesterday, when I got home from work, I loaded up my iTunes and I saw a podcast pop up that was a Mike Missanelli interview with Eagles beat reporter, Tim McManus.  The label on the podcast said “Mikey Miss talks with Tim McManus on the Eagles naming Juan Castillo as defensive coordinator.”  My first thought was:  “Interesting I have heard a lot of different names bandied about – Winston Moss, Darren Perry, even Seth Joyner – but haven’t heard that name out there.”  My second thought was:  “That is weird I think that our new D-coordinator has the same name as our current O-line coach.  I guess it is a popular name in coaching.”  Then I thought:  “Maybe I am wrong.  I thought Juan Castillo was the name of our O-line coach, but maybe it is Julio Castillo or Felix Castillo or Juan Casilla or something like that.”  Not for one second did I think that the Eagles promoted the Juan Castillo to DC.  And, I am not embarrassed to admit that because, well, HE WAS OUR OFFENSIVE LINE COACH.

Now, for the interesting part of this whole thing:  I am not totally sure it is a bad move.  I may be the only one left out there (and I am certainly not given a lot of reasons to bolster this opinion), but I trust the Eagles front office, and, in particular, I trust Andy Reid.

Why could it be a good thing, even though it sounds, on the surface, so utterly ridiculous?

  1. He is, by all accounts, one of the best and brightest assistant coaches in the league.  He was always talked about as being one of the best two or three o-line coaches in the league.  Granted, that does not necessarily translate into being able to coach anything, but it is nice for the Eagles to be able to keep such a talented young assistant.
  2. Somehow, they did this without downgrading his old position.  One of the things I was worried about here was the loss of Castillo as such a great O-line coach.  But, as I said above, Castillo is widely considered one of the best two or three O-line coaches in the league, and the Eagles somehow replaced him with a guy just as highly considered – Howard Mudd from Indianapolis.
  3. Even though he has not coached defense – at any level – since 1990, Castillo is, at heart, a defensive guy.  After all, in his playing days, he was an excellent linebacker at Texas A&M – Kingsville, who went on to play linebacker and then coach linebackers in the USFL.
  4. The scheme, most likely, will not change.  When the Eagles had not moved on this vacancy, it looked more and more like they were targeting one of the assistants in the Super Bowl.  The reason that is scary is that both of those teams play the 3-4 scheme, and the Eagles do not seem to have the personnel to play the 3-4.  Trent Cole might be the best 4-3 defensive end in the NFL, and it is uncertain as to whether he is big enough to play 3-4 DE or quick enough to play 3-4 OLB.  Brandon Graham showed a lot of promise before his injury, but he clearly is not fit for 3-4 DE or OLB.  Juqua Parker is exclusively a 4-3 guy.  And, aside from that, there are two things you must have to play an effective 3-4:  (1) playmaking outside linebackers and (2) a gigantic havoc-creator nose tackle.  Look at the Steelers and Packers.  Casey Hampton is an absolute beast in the middle for Pittsburgh, and everyone knows now about the dominance of B.J. Raji for Green Bay.  And, then you get the OLBs.  Ever heard of Cla Matthews or James Harrison?  Ya, they are the playmaking OLBs that I was talking about.  Do you think either Ernie Sims or Moise Fokou are the next Lawrence Taylors?  Me neither.  So, I think that if the Eagles were to switch to a 3-4 defense, it could take upwards of two, three, even four years of good drafts and other personnel moves to accumulate the right mix of defensive players.  I am not saying that we are stuck in the 4-3 forever, but I think a switch would lead to growing pains that we may not be prepared to go through right now.

Clock management? No. Choosing assistant coaches? Yes.

So, all in all, while this move is absolutely, completely STUNNING, let us not jump off buildings yet.  Say what you will about Andy Reid’s clock management or ability to “win the big one,” he has been incredibly successful in many areas over his 11-year coaching career, and one of his most successful areas is evaluating assistant coaches, from Morninwheg to Harbaugh to Spagnuolo to Childress to Jauran and even to guys like Castillo and other positional coaches that have yet to truly be heard from.  I have complete trust in his decisions when it comes to choosing assistants, so I give him the benefit of the doubt here.

It is just really strange…

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Top 15 2nd Round NBA Draft Picks of the Last 20 Years

This is a totally random list inspired by nothing, but hopefully just a tiny bit interesting to just a few people.  Why 15?  No reason.  Why the last 20 years?  Mainly just because that’s about as far back as my first-hand NBA knowledge goes.  As most people know, the NBA draft has just two rounds, and 2nd Round picks aren’t guaranteed any sort of contract, and are often cut before ever appearing in a game.  It’s really the rare player that ends up having a long, productive career.  Guys that clearly should’ve been 1st Rounders fall through the cracks for a bunch of reasons: they played at a mid-major college, they skipped college altogether, they had an injury history, or they didn’t have an “NBA body.”  Some guys fall for almost no reason at all.  But what they all have in common is that they weren’t expected to make it in the NBA, but all of these guys listed below did anyway, for whatever that’s worth.   

Two quick fun facts about 2nd Rounders in the NBA this year:  there is a current rookie having a surprisingly excellent season, and the team with the best record in the league has started two of them in every game this season, with one of them leading the team in scoring.  All three appear on the list below.  As a final note, it was a little difficult comparing guys who have played 13 years in the league to ones that have played just one or two, but I gave it my best shot.

15. Landry Fields (39th Overall Pick, Knicks, 2010):  So we start things right off with the above-mentioned rookie.  Impossible to say where he fits just 47 games into his career, but he really looks the part of a solid small forward.  He’s started every game and averaged 10 points for the resurgent Knicks, while shooting 52% from the field and 38% on 3’s.  He’s also been a suprisingly good rebounder for a guy that’s a slender 6-7, averaging 7 boards.  It goes to show how down the Pac-10 (and Stanford) has been, because I had NEVER heard of this guy that averaged 22 points for the Cardinal last year.

13 (TIE). DeJuan Blair (37th Pick, Spurs, 2009) and Paul Millsap (47th Pick, Jazz, 2006):  This is the first of three pairs of players that are ranked together, not just because they are similar in quality, but also because they’re similar players.  Blair fell because he was an undersized PF witha history of knee injuries, but he’s a high character guy with a natural talent for pulling down rebounds.  So, it’s no huge surprise that he’s started every game for the 40-7 Spurs in just his second season.  He’s playing just 21 minutes a game though, but averaing 8 points/7 boards.  Millsap played at a small school (Louisiana Tech), where he was a rebounding machine, averaging just under 13 for his career.  Most teams didn’t see that translating to the pros, but he’s developed nicely and is averaging 17 points/8 rebounds this year for Utah.  Those are numbers that Blair might be matching in a few seasons.

11 (TIE). Mo Williams (47th Pick, Jazz, 2003) and Nick Van Exel (37th Pick, Lakers, 1993):  Two solid NBA point guards who each made one All-Star appearance.  It’s actually a little surprising that they weren’t 1st Rounders.  They both were good in college at major conference schools, both pretty athletic and quick, good distributors, and underrated long-range shooters.  Though Williams probably never would’ve made an All-Star team if he hadn’t been lucky enough to play with LeBron.

10. P.J. Brown (29th Pick, Nets, 1992[there were only 27 teams at that point]):  Unlike the above two, he never came close to making an All-Star team, but there’s a lot to be said for being a winner and doing it over a long period of time.  He played 15 years and was a key part of some very good Heat teams in the late-90’s, some solid Hornets teams in the middle-00’s, and he made some clutch plays in the playoffs for the Celtics in their ’08 title run.  He averaged 8 points/7 rebounds for his career and was named to the 2nd Team All-Defensive Team three times.

8 (TIE). Mehmet Okur (37th Pick, Pistons, 2001) and Marc Gasol(48th Pick, Lakers, 2007):  Two Europeans that turned out to be legitimate NBA centers.  Okur played a key supporting role for the ’04 Pistons championship team, averaging 10 points/6 boards, before moving on and making an All-Star team with the Jazz in ’07, when he averaged 19/8.  Not many 6-11 guys can shoot if from deep like Okur.  Since being traded to Memphis for his brother, Gasol has been solid, especially last year when he averaged 15 points/9 boards.  He’s taken a step back this year, but the future still looks bright.

7. Rashard Lewis  (32nd Pick, SuperSonics, 1998):  As one of just three players on this list to make multiple All-Star teams, you might think Lewis would be higher than #7, but I put him here partly just because I don’t like him and think he’s overrated.  He’s 6-10 with a ton of talent, but he’s too often content to just jack up 3 after 3, rarely setting foot inside the arc for a drive or even to rebound.  Still, he had a 3-year run with Seattle of averaging over 20 points a game before making his second All-Star appearance as a Magic in ’09.  He’s averaged 16.5 points for his career, while shooting 39% from 3.  He came straight from his Texas high school to the pros.

6. Michael Redd (43rd Pick, Bucks, 2000):  Redd was one of the premier long-distance shooters of the past decade, with a 20 point per game career average, an All-Star appearance in ’04, and a 27 point per game average in ’06-’07, but he gets knocked down a peg or two because the teams he’s led have never been good and he’s missed a lot of time with injuries. 

5. Stephen Jackson (42nd Pick, Suns, 1997):  Anyone who’s followed Jackson’s tumultuos NBA career is probably not surprised to learn that, even though he was a McDonald’s All-American at powerhouse Oak Hill Academy, he was unable to get eligible for D-I basketball, and ended up at a junior college for a year before entering the draft.  That partly explains why a 6-8 wing player with his skill ended up in the 2nd Round, but the Suns actually cut him, and he didn’t make it to the league until three years later.  Two years after that, he was starting and averaging 12 points for the ’03 Spurs championship team.  In the 8 seasons since then, he’s averaged 18.5 points, posting his best season in ’08-’09 with Golden State, when he averaged 21 points/6.5 assists/5 rebounds.

4. Gilbert Arenas (30th Pick, Warriors, 2001):  For two years (’05-’06, ’06-’07), Arenas was one of the top scorers in the league, averaging close to 29 points a game those two seasons combined.  He added 6 assists, over 4 rebounds, and 2 steals a game as well.  But since then, his career has been derailed by injuries and off-the-court mishaps.  Not sure why NBA scouts missed on him.  Watching him at Arizona, I thought he looked like an NBA player with his combination of quickness, strength, and shooting touch.  I’m usually wrong about those things though, so I guess that doesn’t mean much.

3. Monta Ellis(40th Pick, Warriors, 2005):  Ellis snuck into the draft in the last year that high schoolers were allowed to go pro, and just a few years later he was averaging 20 points a game.  Over the past two seasons, the lightning-quick guard is averaging 25.3 points/5.5 assists/2.3 steals.  Granted, he’s doing it for a not-very-good team that plays an uptempo style, but he’s also still only 25 years old.  He gets the nod ahead of Arenas because he hasn’t self-destructed like Gilbert has. 

2. Carlos Boozer (34th Pick, Cavs, 2002):  This name appearing as a 2nd Rounder was the biggest surprise to me.  Boozer is a 6-9 behemoth of a man who played at the premier college basketball program of the last 20 years (Duke), won a title there as a starting sophomore, then averaged 18 points/9 boards as a junior.  Just a few of the players chosen ahead of him were Vincent Yarbrough, Robert Archibald, and Ryan Humphrey.  Seems like the scouts out-smarted themselves just a little bit.  Boozer was averaging a double/double (15.5/11) by his second season, and he’s been nearly a 20/10 guy over the past 5 seasons combined, while making the playoffs every one of those years.

1. Manu Ginobili (57th Pick, Spurs, 1999):  Looking at the stats and the number of All-Star games alone, it would seem like Ginobili doesn’t belong at #1 on this list.  He’s actually only started about half the games of his career.  But if I could take the whole career of any guy on this list, I’ll take Manu’s.  He’s the epitome of a “do-it-all” guard, with career averages of 15 points, 4 assists, 4 rebounds, and 1.5 steals.  He’s also great on the defensive end and one of the most sneaky, unorthodox offensive players, but can also knock down a long-range shot.  He’s no Tim Duncan, but he’s a HUGE reason why the Spurs have won 3 titles in his time there, and he could possibly make it #4 this year, and this time as their leading scorer, at 18.8 per game right now.  The Spurs laid the foundation for those titles when they took Duncan with the 1st overall pick in ’97, but they may have sealed the deal when they took this Argentinean with the second-to-last-pick of the draft two years later.

Honorable Mentions: Trevor Ariza, Anderson Varejao, Ryan Gomes, Carl Landry, Kyle Korver, Lou Williams, Rasual Butler, Chris Duhon

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Quick Hits on a Friday Afternoon

-I get the frustration with the Eagles front office and with Andy Reid after the loss to the Packers, but I don’t really get all of the frustration that there seems to be among fans with regards to the defensive coordinator job.  People are mad that they didn’t know who would replace McDermott when they fired him.  If they felt like McDermott wasn’t getting the job done (which they obviously did), then they absolutely should have fired him.  Now, before criticizing them, let’s see who they hire.  And before criticizing THAT hire, we should probably see how the defense performs next season.  In any event, I though Phil Sheridan’s Inquirer article today hit the nail on the head.

-Speaking of new Eagles coaches, the hiring of Jim Washburn as the new defensive line coach has received near-unanimous praise.  The comments from his former players say a ton.  Albert Haynesworth:  “If my deal was $100 million or whatever, then Washburn deserves $90 million.”

-Though I still think the Cardinals will find a way to keep Albert Pujols, it’s starting to look more and more possible that the best player of this generation might be changing teams.  I’m sure that has fans of just about every team in the league pondering how they can get him onto their roster, and I’m right there with them.  How about this: Ryan Howard for Pujols.  Howard is a St. Louis native who would be going home as a hometown hero, and it doesn’t hurt that he’s a former MVP winner still in his prime that’s hit more home runs than anyone in the game since he came into the league.  Why would the Cards do that trade?  Because they obviously don’t want to let Albert walk for nothing, and how can you sell your fans on trading the best player in the game for prospects, especially when the team is in contention every year?  True, Howard also has a massive contract, but his deal pays him $25 million per year and $125 million total.  Pujols will be looking for a 10 year/$300 million deal, which just might be more than the Cardinals can afford.  But who can afford that deal?  Your Philadelphia Phillies.  Especially if they’re moving that Howard deal off the books.  And you know those concerns we have about a right-handed bat?  You think Mr. Pujols may solve that problem to some extent?  Ok, ok, this isn’t going to happen.  But let me dream!  We’ll throw in a prospect too, Cards!

-A note on a couple of A-10 hoopsters who haven’t gotten any national notice but are playing real well: Richmond’s Justin Harper, who I mentioned as an honorable mention in my list of the Top 15 Big Men, would definitely be on that list if I made it again.  Over the last 8 games he’s averaging just under 24 points, and he’s 27 for 48 from 3 in those games, which is a mere 56%.  Not bad for a 6-10 forward that’s also averaging 7 boards a game.  Temple’s Khalif Wyatt probably hasn’t earned national recognition yet, but he’s on his way.  The sophomore from Norristown has stepped up in the absence of Juan Fernandez (knee injury) and is averaging 17 points over the last 5 games.  He’s hit 14 of 28 3’s in that stretch, and twice had six assists in a game.

-With the run of Rex Ryan’s Jets to the AFC title game, there was a fair amount of talk on WIP about his dad, Buddy.  I knew Buddy was the architect of the legendary ’85 Bears defense and the Eagles’ Gang Green defenses of my childhood, but I decided to look into his career a little bit and saw that he also spent a couple years as defensive coordinator of the Vikings in the 70’s, for the defenses known as the Purple People Eaters.  The guy was a defensive genius.  Too bad he wasn’t entirely cut out to be a head coach.

-The one good thing to come out of the life and times of Bernie Madoff continues to be his impact on his favorite baseball team, as it’s looking more and more like the Mets ownership (and ability to spend) will be negatively affected by ongoing lawsuits and allegations.

Have a great weekend, everybody.

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The Friday Fourteen: Best Sport Rivalries

One of the most astonishingly unknown statistics in sports has taken center-stage this week.  Did anyone realize that the Packers and the Bears have not played a playoff game since…ONE WEEK AFTER THE ATTACK ON PEARL HARBOR?!?  That is absolutely astonishing, especially considering that this is, in my opinion, the greatest single rivalry in the National Football League.  So, with this game approaching, I figured it would be a good time to try and order the great rivalries that make sports so incredible.  With the snow not allowing me to post this as a “Tuesday’s Top Twelve,” I kept my allegiance to alliteration and made it a “Friday Fourteen” please forgive me and my idiosyncracies.    

As always, I want to set some parameters for the evaluation.    

To be one of the best rivalries, it has to continue from generation to generation

 

What makes a great rivalry?  First of all, I think it has to span generations to really be considered one of the best in sports.  So, you will not see any rivalries on the list involving the Jacksonville Jaguars or the Washington Nationals.  There are some great rivalries going on right now that could become epic and worthy of this list in another ten years, but are not yet.  If you talked to your grandfather about the great rivalries of the Steelers-Ravens or Patriots-Colts, he would probably look at you funny.  The same holds true for college football with Florida-Florida State.  These just have not been great for long enough to make this list.  On the flip side, there are some phenomenal rivalries whose most bitter times have past.  As great as the Steelers-Raiders rivalry was in the 1970’s, it no longer holds the same cache.  The same is true for Sixers-Celtics, Yankees-Royals, or Phillies-Pirates.    

The second component to a great rivalry is that it cannot be too one-sided.  As great as the big brother-little brother rivalries can be to the fans (especially those of the “big brother”), to be an epic rivalry, one side cannot routinely dominate the other.  So, no matter how fierce they may seem, you will not find the college football rivalries of Notre Dame-Navy or USC-UCLA on this list.  You will also not find in-state college hoops rivalries like Kansas-Kansas St. or BC-Harvard on the list because the “little brothers” just do not win enough.    

Third, a great rivalry cannot be overshadowed by another rivalry by that team.  In other words, as great as a rivalry might be, if one (or both) of the teams involved have even bigger rivals elsewhere, then we cannot consider it one of the best.  Rivalries that fall into this category, and therefore will not be on this list, include Duke-Maryland and UNC-N.C. State in basketball.  Texas-Texas A&M, Penn State-Ohio State, and Tennessee-Florida in football, and the budding (and WAY too new and “novel”) baseball rivalries of Yankees-Mets and Cubs-White Sox.    

As big as a rivalry may be to local fans, the greatest rivalries usually have great national intrigue

 

Further, as much as I believe that rivalries are MADE for the “locals,” I had to draw the line on some of the rivalries that were just too provincial.  I think as great as some rivalries may be to their specific areas, there has to be some aspect of national appeal.  This is why the “Civil War” in Oregon (Oregon-Oregon State) and the “Egg Bowl” in Mississippi (Mississippi State-Ole Miss) did not make the cut.  Also, many people do not realize how phenomenal some of these college hoops rivalries are.  Xavier-Cincinnati means everything in that city.  Memphis-Tennessee and Louisville-Kentucky are clearly more ferocious than anything you can image in their respective states.  And, basketball fans in and around Nashville, Tennessee, will tell you that “The Battle of the Boulevard” between Lipscomb and Belmont may be the best rivalry in all of sports.     

Because of the proviciality of evaluating rivalries, I have to recognize my own biases.  Growing up in the Philadelphia area, I wanted to put Phillies-Mets on the list, but I had no justification.  I also considered adding to the list the longest running high school football rivalry in the nation, Haverford versus Upper Darby, on the list, but other than my fellow Haverford alums, I am guessing that no one else cares all that much.    

I am also leaving off “niche sports” and their rivalries, like the Los Angeles Sparks and Houston Comets in the WBNA, the NY/NJ Metrostars and DC United in MLS, and the Montreal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs in the NHL…oops, is that another gratuitous slap at hockey?  Sorry, puckheads.    

Further, I am not even going to touch the intense emotions involved in sports between nations.  In trying to keep this to sports on which I can effectively comment, I will respectfully recuse myself from weighing in on the passions of the great soccer rivalries of Argentina-Brazil, England-Germany, Italy-France, or Spain-Portugal.     

(And, to be honest, if we were really establishing the most heated, most passionate rivalries in all of sports, there is one that would stand out above all the rest:  Norway versus Sweden in cross-country skiing.  But, for the sake of the blog’s credibility, I will leave this one off of the list.  Trust me, though, there may be no rivalry on the planet more bitter, more intense, and more competitive than Scandinavian skiing.)     

A list of the "greatest" anything without The Greatest of All-Time?

 

Finally, and this was the hardest decision I had to make, I have decided to leave off individual rivalries.  It was easy to rule out individual rivalries in team sports.  Chamberlain-Russell, Brady-Manning, and even Willie, Mickey, and The Duke are not on the list.  With individual sports, though, it was more difficult.  It is hard to even consider the best rivalries in sports without mentioning Federer-Nadal, Palmer-Nicklaus, Evert-Navritalova, or maybe the greatest rivalry we have ever seen in any arena – Ali-Frazier.  But, in the end, I thought that individual rivalries are too fleeting.  The greatest individual rivalries of all-time, because they involve individuals, are either just beginning or long-gone.  As great as Palmer-Nicklaus or Ali-Frazier were, I never partook in the fun.  And, as great as Federer-Nadal is now, my kids will never experience it.    

Okay, now that we are 1,000 words in, let us get to the actual question here:  What are the greatest sports rivalries of all-time?    

Honorable Mentions:    

  • Real Madrid – Barcelona.  The only reason this is not on the actual list because, well, I don’t really know anything about club soccer.  But, if you take away the ethnocentricity of life in the U.S., this rivalry is probably not just on the list, but at the top.  Unfortunately, as a red-blooded American, I have been brainwashed to believe that everything happening here has to be better than anything happening anywhere else.
  • Pittsburgh – West Virginia.  “The Backyard Brawl” is one of the best rivalries in the sport that lives and dies on its rivalries – college football.  Unfortunately, this rivalry is just slightly too local to make a Top 12.
  • Georgetown – Syracuse.  A great rivalry in the Big East that has definitely passed the test of time.  It did not quite make the cut of Top 12, but should be mentioned.
  • Chiefs – Raiders.  The AFC West is a really underrated division, when it comes to NFL rivalries, as you can throw the Denver Broncos in the mix with either of these teams as well.  But, the Chiefs-Raiders is the ultimate rivalry in this division and deserves mention on this list.

The Top Fourteen Greatest Sports Rivalries    

14). Penn – Princeton.  This is a bit of a strange one to open the list with, but let me explain.    

While mostly seen as a basketball rivalry, there is great history in the Penn-Princeton football games, as well

 

The Ivy League may be the longest running athletic association in the world that has not changed its membership from its establishment.  These schools are obviously well-known as academic institutions.  Not only were seven of the eight schools founded during the Colonial Period (the exception being Cornell, the baby, which was founded in 1865), but all eight are ranked in the Top 15 in the nation for academic excellence – six of the eight are in the Top 10.  However, what people may not realize is that while these schools have lagged behind in the “big-money era,” this league was founded, in part, because of the schools’ elite athletic programs (as well as their elite academic programs and, well, elite elitism) and have fiercely competed in a wide range of different sports for the better part of a century now.  And, the one sporting rivalry that transcends all the other rivalries that the Ivy League creates (various Presidential races between Harvard and Yale grads, notwithstanding) is the Penn-Princeton rivalry on the basketball court.  The two dominant teams in the only conference without a conference tournament meet twice a year, with basically their entire seasons on the line.  The Ivy League has crowned 57 champions since its inception in 1954; 49 of those have been either Penn (26) or Princeton (23).  It really is “winner-take-all.”    

13). Cubs – Cardinals.  Once known as the “Route 66 Rivalry,” this is one of the best (and longest-running) rivalries of our national pastime.     

Generations of Midwestern kids have been taught to hate one side or the other

 

It does not get the esteem of some of the other baseball rivalries (namely that one in the Northeast that appears a little later on this list), but if you live in the Midwest, this is the rivalry and has been for generations.  While Missourians obviously tend to favor the Cardinals and Illinoisians prefer the Cubbies, there are a ton of baseball-crazed states in the middle of the country with no professional team, and the residents of those states are oftentimes directly split between allegiances to the Cubs and the Cards.  Having played each other an astonishing 2,000+ times, the Cubs have a slight lead in the head-to-head matchups, but the Cardinals have the clear edge in overall team success, winning 17 pennants and 10 World Series, while, as we all know, the Cubs have not won a World Series in more than 100 years.    

12). The Philadelphia Big Five.  Okay, I may have broken the rules here with this one.     

The Philadelphia Big Five: Something you have to experience to understand

 

This rivalry is mostly a local one; it rarely has any impact whatsoever on the national scope of college basketball; the greatness of the rivalry(ies) were at least one generation ago, if not two; and, it probably is only even under consideration because of my Philly roots.  HOWEVER, I will defend that it belongs on this list.  There is no other place in America with this many D-I basketball teams in such a small locale.  Back in 1955, the athletic departments of the five Philadelphia basketball teams (Temple, St. Joe’s, Villanova, LaSalle, and Penn) decided that they would have a round-robin competition every year to crown the best team in the city.  It forged rivalries that are unmatched in their competitiveness, passion, and electricity anywhere in sports.  And, to make it that much better, all games were played in double- and triple-headers in the greatest basketball arena on the planet – The Palestra.  Again, I know that this rivalry may appear, on the surface, to be much like the aforementioned Kentucky-Louisville or Lipscomb-Belmont rivalries, in that they are great for the locals, but not really for the nation.  But, you just have to trust me that the history and the passion that dominates every Big Five matchup is enough to put it on this list.  In fact, my concern over provincialism may have forced me to drop it too far down the list.    

11). Lehigh – Lafayette.  What?  Lehigh-Lafayette?  Really?  Yes, really.     

"The Rivarly" is the oldest...and maybe still the best

 

I did not believe it myself, until I ran this post idea across a friend of mine and he said “any list of the greatest rivalries is incomplete without Lehigh-Lafayette.”  And, he was right.  Known simply as “The Rivalry,” these two schools are 11 miles apart and have met more times than any two football teams in the world (146 times since 1884).  It is also the most longest uninterrupted rivalry, as they have played every year since 1897.  The rivalry is so old that it predates trophies.  The winning side gets to keep the game ball every year.  But, while the football rivalry alone would be enough to put it on this list, The Rivalry extends to any sport contested between the two schools.  ESPNU ranked this as one of the top 10 college football rivalries in the country, despite taking place in the low-major, no-scholarship conference, the Patriot League.    

10). Lakers – Celtics.  Now, because I was only alive for about 8 months of the 70’s and I did not watch more than a handful of NBA games in the 80’s, I might be underselling this rivalry.      

A rivalry so good that "Magic vs. Bird" is just another chapter

 

But to those who might say that, just know that it is the only NBA rivalry that made the list, so I do have respect for what this rivalry has meant over the history of the Association.  But, to be honest, if I had made this list prior to June 2008, I probably would not have even thought about this when considering rivalries.  But, the 2008 NBA Finals (and then again in 2010) rekindled some old spirit in the generation above me that forced this rivalry back into the limelight, and though, there can be an argument that, like the aforementioned Steelers-Raiders or Yankees-Royals, it is more of the memory of a rivalry than a real, bitter rivalry.  However, with the resurgence of the East vs. West wars in 2008 and 2010, the memories of West vs. Cousy, Russell vs. Chamberlain, and, of course, Magic vs. Bird are brought back to the forefront.  This was, for several generations, everything in the NBA.  Hearing stories of Larry Bird checking the Lakers boxscores every morning to see what Magic did the night before are epic.  Just hearing Jerry West talk about the Celtics is telling.  This rivalry is so good that it is spawned the “Beat L.A.” chants.  So, despite the fact that these two teams only play twice each year, the history of this rivalry (and, now its seeming resurgence in the past couple years) is enough to catapult it into the best of the best.    

9). Texas – Oklahoma.  “The Red River Shootout” is clearly one of the best in college football and, therefore, one of the best in all of sports.     

It has absolutely everything you would be look for in a sports rivalry.  There is geographical proximity – Oklahoma and Texas are separated by the Red River, hence the name.  This game is very often key in the national championship picture in college football, as both teams are perennial powerhouses (61 of the last 66 games has been played while at least one of the two teams was ranked in the Top 25, and 6 of the last 10 featured a team that played in the BCS title game).  The rivalry has been going strong for generations, as the first game between these two was played in 1900, when the Oklahoma territory was not even a U.S. State yet.  And, it is always competitive.  Since WWII, Texas has a slight lead in the series 33-30 (with 3 ties).  The passions that are evoked by this boundary war are electric and the whole country takes notice.  While only ranked #9 on this list, this rivalry might be the epitome of what sports rivalries are all about.    

8). Packers – Bears.  The impetus of this post comes in at #8.  As I said in the opening, it is, in my opinion, the single greatest rivalry in the NFL.     

Two of the flagship NFL franchises have not met in the playoffs since 1941

 

Basically, as long as people have been playing the game of football, the Packers and the Bears have been rivals.  The 181-game rivalry began in 1921.  The Bears lead the regular season series 92-83-6, and they lead the postseason series 1-0.  Yes, 1-0.  It is hard to believe that their only postseason meeting was in 1941, but we get to witness the second on Sunday.  The greatness of this rivalry comes in part from the history of the clubs and, in a strange part, in the harshness of the weather conditions.  Football, being mostly contested in the dead of winter, is especially authentic when the conditions are those that are so often present in blustering cold of Chicago and Green Bay.  Further, a large proportion of the game’s greatest all-time players have worn one of these two uniforms.  The Packers have 21 Hall of Famers, which is the second most of any team in the league.  They are second to…yep, you guessed it, the Bears.  There are 26 Bears in the Hall of Fame – the most of any team.  The only reason it is not higher on this list is because, well, they have not really played for “all the marbles…” until now this year.  This weekend’s NFC Championship Game is going to be great because it pits such bitter rivals.     

7). Michigan – Ohio State.  When a matchup comes to be known simply as “The Game,” you know that it has reached the pinnacle of rivalry games.     

However, the fact that I have this listed as #7 makes me feel like I have to defend why it is so “low” on this list.  In 2000, ESPN ranked it as the single greatest rivalry in North America in the 20th century.  In 2007, HBO Sports made a documentary entitled simply, “The Rivalry,” and it was all about this game.  Michigan recently fired coach Rich Rodriguez, presumably, simply because he could not beat Ohio State.  The period of time when Woody Hayes coached Ohio State and Bo Schembechler coached Michigan had been dubbed the “Ten-Year War.”  Hayes was famous for never actually saying the word “Michigan,” instead he would use phrases like “that team up north” or “that state up north.”  In fact, there is an old legend at OSU that says Hayes once refused to add gas to an empty gas tank until he crossed out of Michigan and back into Ohio, allegedly saying “…I don’t buy one goddam drop of gas in this state.  We’ll coast and the push this car across the Ohio line before I give this state a nickel of my money!”  Needless to say, with the emotion, the national championship impacts, and the two 100,000+-seat stadiums, this is rivalry is off-the-charts.  The only thing I can say to justify the #8 spot is that I believe, for reasons I am about to lay out, that as great and epic as this rivalry is, I think there are 6 rivalries in sports (including 2 college football) that are better.  I think the best days of this rivalry may have already occurred.    

6). Yankees – Red Sox.  If you did not think I was crazy for putting Michigan-Ohio State down at #7 (and not #1 in college football), then you are going to absolutely lose it with the Yankees – Red Sox here at #6 (and not #1 in baseball).     

If only the Red Sox had won SOMETHING for 86 years, this could have been #1

 

But, give me a chance to explain.  Yes, in the past decade (or, at least since the Red Sox finally beat the Yankees in 2004), this has been, maybe, the greatest rivalry in all of sports, let alone baseball.  And, yes, there is a long stretch of history between these two bitter rivals.  However, if we can (and I know it is hard) try to think back to the days before the Dave Roberts stolen base, we will see a bitter rivalry that was more like the bully and the nerd.  The Yankees always won.  Yes, they played each other a lot, and yes, the two fanbases hated each other, but the Red Sox did not win a World Series for 86 years.  The Yankees, during those 86 years, won TWENTY-SIX titles.  And, do the players really care?  Johnny Damon went straight from the ’04 comeback to wearing pinstripes.  Roger Clemens and Wade Boggs had no problem switching allegiances.  Could you imagine what Woody Hayes would say if one of his players said he wanted to transfer to Michigan?  I think, to be honest, that there can even be the argument made that this is too high for this rivalry, but I put it here because I have seen first-hand the vitriol with which the two fanbases treat each other.  When the Patriots won their first ever Super Bowl, there were chants of “Yankees suck!”  Also, on the field, there have been some thrilling moments.  Bucky Dent and Aaron Boone taking center-stage for some absolute stomach-punching Red Sox defeats, and then the 2004 comeback was one of the greatest sporting events in history because of the unlikeliness of the comeback and, more so, because of the social implications of the turning-of-the-tables in the rivalry.  I know this will not appease a large majority of fans who believe that this is the greatest rivalry in sports, but I am pretty comfortable with this right here in this spot.    

5). The NFC East.  Before you accuse me of being a homer with this selection, I want you to know that I am not delusional here, I know that the Redskins-Cowboys rivalry (not any of the Eagles rivalries) is the only one in this division that would be considered for this list, by itself, and even that one would fall below the Packers-Bears.     

Any way you slice it, these guys flat-out don't like each other

 

However, every different individual matchup in this division is such a great rivalry in and of itself, that I wanted to capture this as its own entity.  And I believe that this is where it belongs.  These three fanbases literally despise each other, and it is not like the cute, Midwestern, “I kind of hope your team loses” kind of hatred.  It is the hardened, Northeast, F-you kind of hatred.  I like to consider myself a pretty friendly, nice, personable guy.  But, I know, as an Eagles fan, if I see some random guy on the street with something on demonstrating that he is a Giants fan or a Cowboys fan or a Redskins fan, I instantly get a feeling dislike…for HIM, like, as a person.  When I see a car with a Giants license plate, I get some weird diabolical urge to slash the tires.  I am not proud of it, and I wish it was not like that, but it is.  And, the only thing that saves me from feeling like a total sociopath is that I am sure that, if he knew that I was an Eagles fan, he would have the exact same reaction.  I even find myself rooting against teams like the Rangers and the Nationals for no reason other than I know that if they lose, many Cowboy or Redskin fans will be upset.  I get some sick joy out of that.  But, again, I expect that they feel the same about the Phillies or Sixers.  If I’m messed up in a messed up world, then aren’t I just normal?  And, what I just described is “normal” when you root for a team in the NFC East.  That, my friends, is what “rivalry” is all about – and there are six different rivalries all wrapped into one here in this division, and I wouldn’t have it any other way.  Every game is a war and every war your team wins makes your life that much better.    

4). Giants – Dodgers.  Though you would never know it with the media attention shamelessly heaped upon the Yanks – Sox, the best baseball rivalry is almost undebatable.     

When a rivalry can span 120 years and a coast-to-coast relocation, you know it's one of the best

 

Spanning well more than a century and broiling on both coasts, the Giants – Dodgers rivalry is baseball’s best.  The rivalry started in New York City homes in the 19th century.  The Brooklyn Dodgers and the New York Giants were both in the city of New York and both in the National League.  And…they were both great.  Now, 125 years later, both teams are 3,000 miles away from their birthplaces and, while the rivalry may not penetrate households like it did in the Big Apple, it is still as heated as ever.  Both teams look at the other as The Enemy and, usually, when one succeeds, it has to go through the other to do so.  That is the icing on the cake of this rivalry.  It has 125 years of history.  It had infiltration of households and fanbases that despised each other.  No, while that heat may not have completely traveled to the Left Coast, the quality of the teams keeps this rivalry alive and strong.  No professional sports franchise has more wins than the Giants; the Dodgers are third.  The Yankees have the highest winning percentage in the history of Major League Baseball; the Giants are second and the Dodgers are third.  The Yankees have the most pennants in baseball history; the Dodgers are second and the Giants are third.  Only one team has more Hall of Famers than the Dodgers, and it is not the Yankees.  It is the Giants.  And, head-to-head, it is almost incomprehensible how close it is.  The two teams have played 2,337 times.  The Giants have won 1,171, while the Dodgers have won 1,149 (with 17 ties), and astoundingly, the Giants 10-8 season series win in 2010 broke a 51-51 tie in season series (with 18 ties).  The Giants have finished with a better record 62 times, while the Dodgers have finished with the better record 59 times.  And, most amazingly, to me, is that of the 121 seasons of competition between the two teams, only SEVEN times did both teams finish below .500, as opposed to 46 times where both teams finished ABOVE .500.  In a sport that is often criticized for its marathon-like regular season, every game between these two always matters.  To sum it all up:  Jackie Robinson – clearly one of the classiest men to ever live – was traded from the Dodgers to the Giants on December 13, 1956.  That January, he retired from baseball.  Jackie Robinson decided to never wear a uniform again rather than put one on that said “New York Giants.” 

3). Alabama – Auburn.  Better than Texas-Oklahoma?  Better that Michigan-Ohio State?  Yes, for one reason and one reason only:     

Border wars are one thing, but when the rivalry infiltrates families, it is on a whole other level

 

“The Iron Bowl” carries all the cache, all the history, all the national title impacts, and all the fan hatred that these other two rivalries carry with one added “bonus.”  This rivalry divides neighborhoods, streets, and even families.  If you were raised in Michigan, you, most likely, love the Wolverines and hate the Buckeyes.  If you were raised in Ohio, the opposite.  If you were raised north of the Red River, you are a Sooner fan; south of it, a Longhorn fan.   So, neighborhood and families all across Michigan fly maize and blue flags.  There are clear dividing lines.  There is “Sooner Country” and “Longhorn Country.”  Obviously, there are opposing fans that have relocated or, for whatever reason, root for the other team, but there are clearly living in a hostile area.  But, Auburn and Alabama are in the same state.  They lay claim to the same turf.  Sure, you are probably more likely to be a Tide fan with the closer you are to Tuscaloosa, but these boundaries are very gray.  It is far too often that, in a family, one child goes to ‘Bama and the other to Auburn.  Or an Auburn fan falls in love and marries and Alabama fan.  This divides households.  There are countless blocks in the state of Alabama where you will see Alabama flags next door to Auburn flags and so on down the block.  This rivalry cuts are the soul of who are as an Alabaman.  We do not even need to go into the 75-year history of the rivalry (with a close 40-34-1 Alabama lead) or how the teams have combined for 37 conference championships and 15 national championships, along with 117 All-Americans and 4 Heisman Trophy winners.  This rivalry has all of that…but it also has the infiltration of the neighborhoods and even the families.    

2). Duke – UNC.  Only one rivalry in sports encapsulates all of the things we have discussed that makes up a great rivalry (with even more than that), and that is Duke-UNC.     

We'll be neighbors again tomorrow...but not today

 

First of all, these two schools are 8 miles apart in a basketball-crazed area of the country.  Secondly, they could not be more different institutionally.  While both schools are well-renowned for their academic excellence, Duke is a relatively small, private, elitist, incredibly expensive school that attracts a student body from all over the country and the world.  UNC is a very large public university, where in-state tuition is relatively inexpensive and 80% of the student body is made up of native North Carolinians.  So, despite these two schools being so close geographically, they often appeal to vastly differing fanbases.  And, maybe the most important aspect of this rivalry is that these two teams are both just so incredibly dominant in their sport.  Since its founding in 1953, the ACC has consistently considered as the strongest basketball conference from top to bottom.  Yet, despite the elite programs that round out this conference, Duke or UNC has been crowned champion in 80% of the ACC regular seasons.  One of the two has also won 61% of the conference tournaments, including 13 of the last 14.  And, they haven’t just dominated their own conference.  Only three programs have more D-I basketball wins than Duke, and one of them is UNC (#2 behind Kentucky all-time).  UNC has made 18 Final Fours (the most all-time), and Duke has made 15 (3rd most all-time).  And, both programs are in the top 5 in all-time championships (UNC-5, Duke-4).  If you have ever seen a game between these two, you know the passion with which they treat this rivalry.  There is no doubt that these games are the biggest games on either of their schedules.  With the 8-mile geographical proximity, the immense history (they have played every year since 1920), the infiltration of neighborhoods, and the divergent student bodies and fanbases, this rivarly is second to none.  Well, actually, in my opinion, it is second to one…    

1). Army – Navy.  While Duke-UNC has everything that I have deemed important in judging rivalries (and then some), it has to take a backseat to one rivalry and one rivarly only.  Incidentally, this rivalry is lacking in many aspects of how I am judging these rivalries.  However, when making this list, there was absolutely no doubt what would be #1, and I never wavered.  The Army-Navy Game.     

Sports' greatest rivalry...and it's not even close

 

This all comes down to what sport really is all about?  Why do we play?  We play for the competition and for the love of the game.  I would argue that this game embodies those two things more than anything else across all sports, in all the world.  Very few of the players in this game ever play professional football.  Never does this game have any national championship impacts (and oftentimes not even any Patriot League impacts).  These men are soldiers.  They play football for sport.  For the seniors, this is usually the last competitive football game in which they will ever play.  During wartime, it can be one of their final days before being deployed to battle.  At the end of every game, the two teams stand, in uniform, alongside each other, facing the student bodies as both alma maters are played – and all of this has happened for 120 years.  There is a cliche that I believe epitomizes a true “rivalry.”  And that is “if we only win one game all year, it’ll be a good year if that win is against ____.”  Well, that is not really true anywhere but here.  Duke can lose three times to UNC, but if they win the national championship, they will have had a successful year.  Michigan can lose to Ohio State, but if they go to the Rose Bowl and Ohio State is 5-5, Wolverine fans are happy.  But, it is absolutely true that if Army goes 1-10 and Navy goes 10-1, with that one win for Army coming in this game, both sides will agree that Army had the better season.  My friends, this is the ultimate rivalry.  And, honestly, it’s not even close…    

As always, these rankings are based on indisputable facts and have not been impacted in any way by opinion, bias, or perception.  Feel free to debate the list as long as you understand that debate here is futile…

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2011 BSB NFL Playoff Challenge: Scenarios

I tried this last year, and I think it worked, so I am going to try and give the scenarios for the Challenge winner here, depending on how these final 7 games turn out.  Here is what I came up with (the numbers in parentheses are the chances, out of 16, that that entry would win given the named Super Bowl champion):

If New England wins the Super Bowl:

Potential Winners:  Teddy (13), Waters (3)

  • Teddy wins if(1-4) Atl wins NFC; (5-8) GB wins NFC; (9-12) Sea wins NFC; (13) Chi wins NFC, GB beats Atl, and Bal beats Pit
  • Waters wins if(1-2) Chi wins NFC and Sea beats GB; (3) Chi wins NFC, GB beats Sea, and Pit beats Bal

If Atlanta win Super Bowl:

Potential Winners:  Alexi (8), Teddy (3), Alex (3), Waters (1), Bry (1)

  • Alexi wins if(1-4) Bal wins AFC; (5-6) Pit wins AFC and NE beats NYJ; (7) Pit wins AFC, NYJ beats NE, and Chi beats Sea; (8) NYJ wins AFC, Bal beats Pit, Sea beats Chi
  • Teddy wins if(1-2) NE wins AFC and Bal beats Pit; (3) NE wins AFC, Pit beats Bal, and Sea beats Chi
  • Alex wins if(1-2) NYJ wins AFC and Pit beats Bal; (3) NYJ wins AFC, Bal beats Pit, and Chi beats Sea
  • Waters wins if(1) NE wins AFC, Pit beats Bal, and Chi beats Sea
  • Bry wins if(1) Pit wins AFC, NYJ beats NE, and Sea beats Chi

If Pittsburgh wins Super Bowl:

Potential Winners:  Bry (14), J (1), Bry/J (1)

  • Bry wins if(1-4) if Atl wins NFC; (5-8) if GB wins NFC; (9-12) if Sea wins NFC; (13-14) if Chi wins NFC and NYJ beats NE
  • J wins if: (1) Chi wins NFC, Atl beats GB, and NE beats NYJ
  • Bry & J tie if: (1) Chi wins NFC, GB beats Atl, NE beats NYJ

If Chicago wins Super Bowl:

Potential Winners:  Waters (11), Alexi (3), Waters/Alex (1), Alexi/J (1)

  • Waters wins if(1-4) NE wins AFC; (5-8) Pit wins AFC; (9-10) NYJ wins AFC and Pit beats Bal; (11) NYJ wins AFC, Bal beats Pit, and GB beats Atl
  • Alexi wins if(1-2) Bal wins AFC and NYJ beats NE; (3) Bal wins AFC, NYJ beats NE, and GB beats Atl
  • Waters and Alex tie if(1) NYJ wins AFC, Bal beats Pit, and Atl beats GB
  • Alexi and J tie if(1) Bal wins AFC, NE beats NYJ, Atl beats GB

If Baltimore wins Super Bowl:

Potential Winners:  Alexi (14), Teddy (1), Alexi/Teddy (1)

  • Alexi wins if(1-4) Atlwins NFC; (5-8) Chi wins NFC; (9-12) Sea wins NFC; (13-14) GB wins NFC, NYJ beats NE
  • Teddy wins if(1)  GB wins NFC, NE beats NYJ, and Chi beats Sea
  • Alexi and Teddy tie if(1) GB wins NFC, NE beats NYJ, Sea beats Chi

If Green Bay wins Super Bowl:

Potential Winners:  Teddy (15), Teddy/Rob Smith (1)

  • Teddy wins if(1-4)  NE wins AFC; (5-8) Pit wins AFC; (9-12) Bal wins AFC; (13-14) NYJ wins AFC and Bal beats Pit; (15) NYJ wins AFC, Pit beats Bal, and Sea beats Chi
  • Teddy and Rob Smith tie if: (1) NYJ wins AFC, Chi beats Sea, and Pit beats Bal

If N.Y. Jets win Super Bowl:

Potential Winners:  Alex (12), Rob Smith (4)

  • Alex wins if(1-4) Atl wins NFC; (5-8) Chi wins NFC; (9-12) Sea wins NFC
  • Rob Smith wins if(1-4) GB wins NFC

If Seattle wins Super Bowl:

Potential Winners:  Bry (7), Teddy (5), Alexi (3), Rob Smith (1)

  • Bry wins if(1-4) Pit wins AFC; (5-6) NYJ wins AFC and Pit beats Bal; (7) NYJ wins AFC, Bal beats Pit, and Atl beats GB
  • Teddy wins if(1-4) NE wins AFC; (5) Bal wins AFC, NE beats NYJ, and GB beats Atl
  • Alexi wins if(1-2) Bal wins AFC and NYJ beats NE; (3) Bal wins AFC, NE beats NYJ, and Atl beats GB
  • Rob Smith wins if(1) NYJ wins AFC, Bal beats Pit, and GB beats Atl
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2011 BSB NFL Playoff Challenge: Wild Card Results

One round in the books, and the BSB NFL Playoff Challenge is off and running, and here are our standings after the Wild Card Round: 

[NOTE:  when listing the teams lost below, a * indicates a “most trusted” team and a ^ indicates a “least trusted” team]

LEADERS:
Teddy – 25
Alexi – 24
Rob Smith – 23
Bry – 22
Doogan – 21
Matt – 20
The Cuz – 17
J – 17
Alex – 14
Scott – 14
Waters – 14

POINTS LOST:
Teddy – 21
Alexi – 24
Doogan – 24
Waters – 24
J – 26
Scott – 26
Bry – 27
The Cuz – 27
Matt – 28
Rob Smith – 28
Alex – 32

1). Teddy.  (25 points, +4 differential)
Teddy, thanks to his strong belief in Baltimore (9) and Green Bay (11) takes the lead after the wild card round.  His only big loss was Philadelphia, whom he had at 8, but it was good for him, considering he was so high on Green Bay.  Teddy may be in even better shape than it seems, as he has only lost 21 points – far fewer than anyone else.  He was helped mainly because of how low he was on New Orleans.

Seattle^ over New Orleans^ = -5
N.Y. Jets over Indianapolis = -1
Baltimore over Kansas City = +7
Green Bay* over Philadelphia = +3

Points Lost:  21
Phi (8), NO^(6), KC^(2), Sea^ (1)

2). Alexi.  (24 points, 0 differential)
Alexi is in prerry good shape after the wild card round, as he and fellow Ravens fan Teddy are sitting 1-2 in the ChallengeAlexi was real low on the Eagles, so their loss doesn’t hurt him, and his 11-spot with Baltimore might be huge.

Seattle^ over New Orleans = -9
N.Y. Jets over Indianapolis = -4
Baltimore* over Kansas City^ = +9
Green Bay over Philadelphia^ = +4

POINTS LOST:  24
NO (10), Ind (7), Phi (5), KC^ (2)

3). Rob Smith.  (23 points, -5 differential)
Rob Smith put a lot of faith in both the Eagles and Packers, so he was not hurt that bad, even though he lost his 12-team.  He also has a lot of faith in the Jets, so if they can go a long way, Rob Smith could still win this thing.

Seattle^ over New Orleans = -8
N.Y. Jets over Indianapolis = +3
Baltimore over Kansas City = +2
Green Bay over Philadelphia* = -2

POINTS LOST:  28
Phi* (12), NO (9), Ind (4), KC (3)

4). Bry.  (22 points, -5 differential)
Bry put too much faith in the hometown Eagles, as their loss is going to hurt him.  But, he did put a lot of faith in Baltimore, which should help.  He was also the only one to get more than 1 point for the Seahawks, as he put them at 2.

Seattle* over New Orleans = -7
N.Y. Jets over Indianapolis = +1
Baltimore over Kansas City = +5
Green Bay over Philadelphia = -4

POINTS LOST:  27
Phi (11), NO (9), Ind (4), KC (3)

5). Doogan.  (21 points, -3 differential)
Doogan took the biggest hit with the Saints elimination, but did real well with the Ravens and did not lose much at all with the Eagles loss.

Seattle^ over New Orleans* = -10
N.Y. Jets over Indianapolis = -2
Baltimore over Kansas City^ = +7
Green Bay over Philadelphia^ = +2

POINTS LOST:  24
NO* (11), Ind (6), Phi (5), KC^ (2)

6). Matt.  (20 points, -8 differential)
Matt’s day looks good, but he is one of three entries to lose his 12-team in the first round, as he had Indy there.  Fortunately, he actually did quite well in the other games, including a big win for his entry by Green Bay.

Seattle^ over New Orleans = -7
N.Y. Jets^ over Indianapolis* = -10
Baltimore over Kansas City = +3
Green Bay* over Philadelphia^ = +6

POINTS LOST:  28
Ind* (12), NO (8), Phi^ (5), KC (3)

7t). The Cuz.  (17 points, -10 differential)
The Cuz got hit hard in the NFC, as he had the Eagles and Saints big, and the Packers and Seahawks small.  He did have a lot of faith in the Ravens, so he still has hope.  Also, he has a decent number (6) on the Bears, which could help.

Seattle^ over New Orleans = -9
N.Y. Jets over Indianapolis = -1
Baltimore over Kansas City^ = +6
Green Bay over Philadelphia = -6

POINTS LOST:  27
Phi (11), NO (10), Ind (4), KC^ (2)

7t). J.  (17 points, -9 differential)
J took a huge hit in losing New Orleans, but he still has a lot of his points remaining, including his 9-team in Baltimore.  He is not high on the Packers or Falcons, so the way the NFC played out may hurt him.  He does have a decent number on the Bears, though, so that could help.

Seattle^ over New Orleans* = -10
N.Y. Jets over Indianapolis = -1
Baltimore over Kansas City^ = +7
Green Bay over Philadelphia = -5

POINTS LOST:  26
NO* (11), Phi (8), Ind (5), KC^ (2)

9t). Alex.  (14 points, -16 differential)  
Alex put all his eggs in the Kansas City basket, and now he is in trouble here.  He also was extremely low on Green Bay, which doesn’t help.  What does help, however, is his 10-spot on the Jets.  If the Jets go all the way, he could be a contender.

Seattle^ over New Orleans = -6
N.Y. Jets* over Indianapolis = +6
Baltimore over Kansas City* = -9
Green Bay^ over Philadelphia = -7

POINTS LOST:  32
KC* (12), Phi (9), NO (7), Ind (4)

9t). Scott.  (14 points, -12 differential)
Scott had all of his double-digit teams on the bye, so he isn’t out of it yet, but he did not have a great day.  The Eagles hit him hard, and the Colts hit him even harder.

Seattle^ over New Orleans = -6
N.Y. Jets over Indianapolis = -4
Baltimore over Kansas City^ = +4
Green Bay over Philadelphia = -6

POINTS LOST:  27
Phi (11), NO (10), Ind (4), KC^ (2)

9t).  Waters.  (14 points, -10 differential)
Waters, despite his low point total, is not in terrible shape, since lost the 2nd fewest points in the whole Challenge.  The loss of 10-team New Orleans does hurt, but he is in really good position, as he is MUCH higher on Chicago than anyone else.

Seattle^ over New Orleans = -9
N.Y. Jets over Indianapolis^ = +2
Baltimore^ over Kansas City = -2
Green Bay over Philadelphia = -1

POINTS LOST:  24
NO (10), Phi (7), KC (4), Ind^ (3)

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Eagles – Packers: Wild Card Preview

Well, here we go.  It is finally here.  The Playoffs.  All year has been working towards this day, and now it’s here.  Let us get right to a couple of thoughts on the individual unit matchups that we will see today.

Eagles on Offense:  The Line of Scrimmage
I started with this because I think that this matchup has the most potential to win or lose the game for the Birds.  The Packers defense is fantastic, and it, like most great defenses, is predicated on putting pressure on the quarterback.  The problem – for the Eagles – is that they with the more athletic, speedy guys that are prevalent in 3-4 defenses.  The Birds absolutely have to pick up the blitzes from guys like Cla Matthews (who had a MONSTER game against the Birds in Game 1) and Desmond Bishop out of the linebacking corps, and they cannot let B.J. Raji wreak havoc on the line.  The Packers also got some good news when Cullen Jenkins was declared able to play this morning.  Jenkins has missed four weeks with injury, but will bring his 7 sacks to the game today.  But, the big thing that we have to watch for in the game today is the Packers stealing a page from the Giants and, subsequently, the Vikings gameplans – sending fast, athletic guys at Vick.  The Giants did it successfully with Antrelle Rolle, and the Vikings took it to another level with Antoine Winfield.  Unfortunately, for the Eagles, the Packers might have the BEST blitzing d-back in the NFL in Charles Woodson.  This whole game might come down to the ability of Shady McCoy and company to pick up the blitz of Woodson, at least enough for Vick to dump it off or escape for scrambles.  If we see Packers #21 in the Eagles backfield, it might mean one-and-done for the second straight year.  Good news on the injury front is that Todd Herremans will play.  He has maybe been the most important lineman for the Eagles this year.  The bad news is that Max Jean-Gilles is a gametime decision.

Eagles of Offense:  The Secondary
I ranked all 12 playoff “weapons” on Wednesday and actually put the Eagles at #1.  It has been a long road from the days of Charles Johnson and Torrance Small, but we finally have a receiving corps that is not only dangerous, but terrifying for opposing defenses.  This is where I think the Eagles can excel and win this game – not because the Packers are weak, by any means, in the secondary, but because I think this group of receivers is just that good.  Unfortunately, the Packers have cut ties with our old friend Al Harris, so we will not be handed a 15-yard personal foul and a 35-yard pass interference today, but I do think that DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin can produce the big plays that we have grown accustomed to seeing all year.  I also think that if Woodson and Matthews are going to be highly responsible for containing Michael Vick, then LeSean McCoy could be a huge threat out of the passing game.  And, one other thing to look for:  though he had a really slow start to the season, Brent Celek has come on lately.  Do not forget that he led this team in receptions just a year ago.  This is very intertwined with the ability to protect, but if the Eagles think that they can hold down the fort with just their five linemen, then Celek could be a real weapon down the seam.

Packers on Offense:  The Line of Scrimmage
The one real vulnerability of the Packers is their offensive line.  Last year, they were dreadful, and this year, they are competent, but barely.  They added Brian Bulaga with their first-round draft pick, and he has been good – not great, but good.  And, another big loss for this team is Ryan Grant, who not only was he a very good runner, he was an excellent pass blocker in the backfield.  Brandon Jackson is not as good at picking up the blitz.  We are going to miss Brandon Graham today (and the rest of the year), but the Birds have plenty of talent leftover on that line.  Trent Cole and Juqua Parker should abuse the Packers tackles and get to Rodgers in the backfield.  I think that this is where the Birds can really give the explosive Packers offense some trouble–and they are going to have to because I am not sure this next matchup is all that encouraging.

Packers on Offense:  The Secondary
Now, we said that the Eagles offensive line versus the Packers rush attack might be the difference in this game…well, this matchup is right behind in importance, and could certainly be what we are talking about if the Birds season is to end today.  We all know about the struggles of Dmitri Patterson, and it should be interesting to see (a) if Patterson even starts today, and (b) who, on the Packers, he ends up spending most of his time covering.  If he is on Greg Jennings, then he will need to either play the game of his life or get a lot of help because Jennings is that good.  On the other side, Asante Samuel is one of the best on the planet, but there is a problem.  The Packers offense is predicated on the one-step drop out of the shotgun and the quick, West Coast passing scheme.  The best defense for this is the bump-and-run, physical-type defense, but Asante Samuel has made a living of playing off receivers and taking chances to get picks.  With Rodgers arm strength and quick passing scheme, that gambling style may not work that well.  That being said, Samuel is always able to change the game with one big play.  As much of a loss as Stewart Bradley and Brandon Graham are, the Nate Allen loss may be the most significant.  He was playing a great free safety in this his rookie season, and now we are left with 7th-round pick, Kurt Coleman.  Fortunately, Quintin Mikell has had a terrific season at strong safety.  One piece of good news for the Birds is that the Packers have not found anyone close to a replacement for injured tight end Jermichael Finley, who is a HUGE loss for the Packers offense.  All in all, the Birds have to stop these great Packer receivers if there are to pull this out.

Special Teams
The Eagles, with DeSean Jackson returning and David Akers in placekicking, are better.  If it is a close game (likely), where field position is essential (not as likely with the explosive offenses), the Eagles have the advantage.  Also, playing at home can often really help the special teams play, be it the kicking game or the emotion with which you have to play on kick coverages.

The Pick
After all of this, I can definitely see why the prevailing opinion if that the Packers are going to win this game.  However, I am going with the Birds for several reasons:

  1. As Doogan aptly pointed out, this Packers love may be giving our Birds a real chip on their shoulder.
  2. The de facto “bye” week may be huge for this team, and in particular, this quarterback.  In fact, Andy Reid did not allow Vick in practice all week last week with direct instructions to study the Packers.  He rolled the dice that the Packers would be the opponent, and he wanted Vick as prepared as possible.  He thought that any Dallas gameplanning would interfere with that preparation.  Plus, Vick says he is now totally healthy, and we all know just how good he can be when he is healthy.
  3. At this time of year, the homefield advantage is gigantic.
  4. Andy Reid is 7-1 in playoff opening games; Mike McCarthy is 1-1. 
  5. Michael Vick has two playoff wins; Aaron Rodgers has none.

My Pick:  Eagles 24 – Packers 21

Random Notes

  • For more than a month now, I have strongly believed that Marty Mornhinweg would be the next Cleveland Browns head coach.  But, now, it looks like Ray Sherman is the favorite for the job, which I think is really positive for the Birds because Mornhinweg is a fantastic coordinator.
  • Nnamdi Asomugha has been declared an unrestricted free agent.  Now, I am sure that there are 31 fanbases now drooling of thinking of him in their team’s colors, but let us think for a second of how great it would be if the Eagles landed Nnamdi.  They have landed two monster free agents in the past couple of years, and they have plenty of room under the salary cap – even with franchising Vick and giving DeSean Jackson a much-deserved contract extension – so there’s at least a chance.  Wow!
  • I heard a report that the Eagles will accept no less that TWO first-round picks in a trade for Kevin Kolb.  I like that because (a) I could see a team caving and giving that up, which would be quite a haul, or (b) we will keep Kolb as a nice security blanket for Vick.
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