Broad Street Believers

Well, here we are.  We completed Week Seventeen and now we’re on to the playoffs.  The playoff picture fell together rather nicely this year, as no team can really have a beef (unless the 9-7 NFC teams like Minnesota and Carolina want to complain about the hollowness of San Fran’s 9-7 and their bad division).  Tiebreakers were only used for seeding, as everyone who got in did so on their records.  This is going to be good.

Saturday, January 8:
4:15 – #6 Cincinnati 20 – #3 New England 31
The Bengals had a great year, and they have the horses to win this game, but there was just too much Tom Brady.  Tom Brady throws for three touchdowns, including a 68-yarder to Randy Moss late in the second quarter, and the New England defense bends but doesn’t break.  Carson Palmer, who had a bounce-back regular season, throws a key interception in the fourth quarter and the Patriots are off to San Diego in the Divisional Round.

8:30 – #6 Atlanta 29 – #3 New Orleans 31
A thriller on Saturday night, as the Saints hold on to beat Atlanta.  The Saints jumped out to an early 14-0 lead on two quick scoring drives, but the Falcons didn’t go away.  The Falcons scored a touchdown with just over two minutes left in the half to cut the New Orleans lead to 14-10, but it was too much time for Drew Brees and company.  The Saints went right down the field in their two-minute offense and added, what seemed to be a momentum-killing touchdown to go into halftime up 21-10.  The two teams matched field goals with their first possessions of the second half to make it 24-13.  After a Pierre Thomas fumble led to another Atlanta field goal, the Falcons were within eight points until Reggie Bush took a punt return to the house right at the end of the third, and things looked bleak for Atlanta, down 31-16 after three quarters.  But, they weren’t done.  Matt Ryan and Michael Turner led them right down the field for a another quick score.  After a Saints three-and-out, the Falcons, again, went down the field for another touchdown.  With five minutes left, Mike Smith opted to go for two, but the Saints defense held.  But, again, the Falcons defense held up, forced a Saints punt and Ryan had the ball, down two, with just over two minutes left.  The Falcons got one first down, but then Matt Ryan threw a season-ending interception, and the Saints survive and move on to Dallas.

Sunday, January 9:
1:00 – #5 Pittsburgh 19 – #4 Baltimore 16
In an old-school brawl of a football game, the Pittsburgh Steelers end the Ravens dreams of a Super Bowl with a 19-16 win at M&T Bank Stadium.  Neither offense really moved the ball with any consistency, but both defenses made some big plays.  The Ravens got their only touchdown when massive pressure caused Ben to throw into coverage and it was intercepted and returned 38 yards for the first score of the game.  The Steelers had a little bit of offense, with three drives resulting in field goals in the first half, but were only in the red zone once.  The Ravens led 10-9 at the half.  The one big drive of the game came midway through the third quarter, when the Steelers offense came together and pulled off an impressive 16-play, 84-yard drive for the only offensive touchdown of the game to go up 16-10.  The Ravens answered with a field goal, but a Flacco fumble in the fourth handed the three points back to the Steelers, who were up 19-13.  The Ravens had a drive stall at the 27-yard line with just under 5 minutes left and John Harbaugh decided to kick the field goal on 4th and 4.  They never again crossed midfield, as the Steelers defense held firm.  Pittsburgh will now head to Indy for a showdown with the defending AFC champs.

4:15 – #5 Philadelphia 20 – #4 San Francisco 6
Alex Smith’s first ever playoff game was not exactly how he drew it up.  The young quarterback, who had an okay season, threw two and added a fumble, as the Eagles defense really came to play.  Kevin Kolb wasn’t off-the-charts, but he was handed good field position for most of the day, and did what he needed to do, throwing for 186 yards, 2 TDs and, most importantly, 0 INTs.  The Birds will head to the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field for a Week One rematch with Aaron Rodgers and the Pack.

Saturday, January 15 (aka…the start of the best sports weekend of the year that doesn’t include 48 NCAA tournament games):
4:15 – #3 New Orleans 13 – #2 Dallas 31
In an absolute shocker, the Cowboys roll over the defending Super Bowl champions.  The Cowboys took the opening kickoff and went right down the field, scoring on a 2-yard Tashard Choice touchdown.  The Saints, though, came right back and matched the ‘Boys with a touchdown of their own, and it looked like we were in for an old-fashioned shootout.  But, it wasn’t to be, as the Cowboys dominated the final 52 minutes of play, holding the Saints to two long field goals the rest of the way.  The Cowboys will await the Philly-Green Bay winner in the NFC Championship Game.  Dallas is now one win away from being the first team ever to play a Super Bowl in their home stadium.

8:30 – #5 Pittsburgh 24 – #1 Indianapolis 14
Two games on Saturday and two shocking results.  The first one was because of the non-competitiveness of the defending Super Bowl champs, and this one because of the home upset of the defending AFC champs.  The Steelers went into Indy and just phyiscally manhandled the Colts, going up 10-0 early and never looking back.  Peyton Manning engineered two good touchdown drives–one at the end of the half and one midway through the third quarter–but other than that, this defense made him look almost ordinary.  Rashard Mendenhall ran for 108 yards and two TDs and the Steelers are on to the AFC Championship Game against either New England or San Diego.

Sunday, January 16:
1:00 – #5 Philadelphia 13 – #1 Green Bay 24
On a frigid day in upper Wisconsin, the Packers showed why they were the best team in the NFC this year.  Their defense held the Eagles to very little production all day, while the offense showed signs of brilliance.  It was a business-like playoff win for a very dangerous team.  Aaron Rodgers, despite the cold, still threw for 242 yards and 2 TDs.  Kevin Kolb, on the other hand, had a pretty rough day in the elements.  Aside from an 82-yard touchdown pass to DeSean Jackson in the second quarter, it was not a day to remember for the young QB.  All in all, the season has to be considered a success for the Birds, and the future is bright for the youngest team in the league.  The Packers have their sights set on bigger things, though, and will host Dallas in next week’s NFC Championship Game.

4:30 – #3 New England 42 – #2 San Diego 31
The 2010 Pats looked quite reminiscent of the 2007 Pats in this one, as they ran up and down the field at will against an overmatched Chargers secondary.  It was a good thing, too, that the Pats were so offensive because their defense got exposed by Rivers and the Chargers O.  Antonio Gates, Ryan Matthews, and Malcolm Floyd had huge days, so Phillip Rivers racked up almost 400 yards in defeat.  But, there was no stopping the Pats O, as Brady throws for 6 TDs, including 3 to Randy Moss.  The Pats, the #3-seed, will get to host the AFC Championship Game thanks to the Steelers upset of Indy.

Sunday, January 26:
1:00 – #2 Dallas 20 – #1 Green Bay 24
Despite the cold day at Lambeau Field, Tony Romo actually has a decent day, but the Cowboys are done in by three big fumbles (one each by Marion Barber, Felix Jones, and Miles Austin) and fall just short of a return trip to the Super Bowl.  Aaron Rodgers has another good day with 237 yards and 2 TDs.  The unexpected hero of the game was Ryan Grant, who stepped up in a big way, taking control of the game and dominating the second half.  The Cowboys dream of playing a home Super Bowl goes up in smoke on a cold day in Green Bay.

4:30 – #5 Pittsburgh 27 – #3 New England 17
The New England defense just wasn’t good enough, and the Pittsburgh defense was.  The Steelers did not stop Brady, but they contained him in the red zone, and, most importantly, kept him off the field, as their offense ate up a ton of clock as they marched up and down the field repeatedly on the Pats.  Roethlisberger throws for a workmanlike 191 yards and 1 TD.  Rashard Mendenhall had another big day with 114 yards on the ground, and Hines Ward scored on a 48-yard touchdown run on an end around.  A tough loss for the Pats, as the Steelers head to Dallas in search of championship number 7.

Sunday, February 11 (Dallas, TX) – Super Bowl XLV:
Green Bay 31 – Pittsburgh 7
Aaron Rodgers is not only a Super Bowl champ, but the Super Bowl MVP, as he throws for 284 yards and 3 TDs against the best defense in the NFL.  Greg Jennings caught two of those TD passes and had 114 yards receiving.  The Packers scored the first 10 points and never looked back.  Roethlisberger, on the other hand, had a day for the ages.  Four interceptions and two fumbles in the worst game of his career.  He was even pulled in the fourth quarter for Dennis Dixon, who led the Steelers down for a late touchdown drive to avoid the ignominy of being shutout on the biggest stage.  Karma’s a bitch, huh Ben?

Week Sixteen is in the books.  One week left.  All the marbles.  And, the NFL did a great thing this year–every single Week Seventeen game is a game between division rivals.  That has created some amazing final week matchups.  Before we get to the games, let’s look at some final-week playoff scenarios:

The NFC is easy.  Five teams have clinched (GB, NO, Phi, Dal, SF), and two teams play each other for the final spot (Atl-Car), with the winner getting in and loser going home.  Also, the Cowboys and Eagles play for the NFC East title.  As for seeding, the Packers will get the top seed with a win.  If they lose, it could be NO, Phi, or Dal, depending of various combinations.  SF has locked themselves in the #4-spot.

The AFC is much more complicated.  The Colts will get the top-seed with a win or a Patriots loss.  The Chargers have the edge over NE for the #2-seed, but it’s not a lock.  The Pats have clinched the East.  The North will go to the winner of Week Seventeen’s game between Baltimore and Cincy.  The loser of that game is in a fight for a wild card.  Right now, three teams sit at 9-6 (Pit, Mia, and Ten).  If two of them lose, the loser of the North title game will get in, otherwise there will be a crazy tiebreaker.  The Raiders, Texans, and Jets all sit at 8-7 and not mathematically eliminated, but they would need some serious help.

Sunday, January 2:
1:00 – Miami (9-6) at NEW ENGLAND (11-4)
The Super Bowl for the Dolphins, but they have to play in Foxborough with the Pats having something to play for.  A tough game, but I like New England at home.

1:00 – Buffalo (1-14) at N.Y. JETS (8-7)
The Jets get a break in Week Seventeen with a home game against an abysmal team.  Will it be enough?

1:00 – Cincinnati (10-5) at BALTIMORE (10-5)
The AFC North Championship Game is in Baltimore.  The Ravens are just too tough and too good at home to lose this one, although it should be a phenomenal game.

1:00 – PITTSBURGH (9-6) at Cleveland (3-12)
After the 1-3 start without Ben, the Steelers now finish 9-3 with him and have a shot at the playoffs.  I can’t see them losing here in Cleveland with the season on the line.

1:00 – Jacksonville (6-9) at HOUSTON (8-7)
The Texans are most likely going to be the only team of these two with anything to play for.  They should win this game at home.  Will it be enough?

1:00 – Tennessee (9-6) at INDIANAPOLIS (12-3)
Obviously, my take on this game would be a lot different if the Colts have nothing to play for here because we all know that they won’t hesitate to rest everyone.  But, in this scenario, the Colts do still have homefield advantage to play for (actually, they are still at risk for a #3-seed).  If this is true, they will win this game.

1:00 – Oakland (8-7) at KANSAS CITY (6-9)
At this point in the season, it’s more likely that the Chiefs will still be playing hard.  Yes, in this scenario, the Raiders still have a glimmer of playoff hope, but I think, no matter what, the Chiefs should win this game at home.

1:00 – DALLAS (10-5) at Philadelphia (10-5)
Three years in a row the NFC Beast has come down to these two teams on the last day of the season.  In 2008, the Eagles waxed the Cowboys to take the division.  In 2009, the Cowboys got them back, won the division and won again in the wild card rematch.  This year, I just think that the Cowboys, in these circumstances, are the better team and will win in Philly.  And, yes, it will really, really suck…again.

1:00 – N.Y. Giants (8-7) at WASHINGTON (3-12)
No one circles the wagons like the Washington Redskins.  They will put it all together for one last game for pride.  With the Giants eliminated, the ‘Skins will have the edge they need and win this game at home.

1:00 – MINNESOTA (8-7) at Detroit (6-9)
Now, let me preface this.  If the Vikings are completely eliminated in Week Sixteen, I think they might walk in here and lose.  In this scenario, they are, but I still think that there’s enough of a chance that they will play for pride here and win, that I am going to give it to them here.

1:00 – Chicago (8-7) at GREEN BAY (11-4)
Green Bay has it all at stake here and should be able to beat their arch-rivals in Lambeau to lock up the homefield advantage.  A season that started so promising for Chicago ends at .500.

1:00 – Carolina (9-6) at ATLANTA (9-6)
A playoff game before the playoffs.  Winner goes to the playoffs; loser goes home.  The Falcons are coming off a really tough game on Monday night against New Orleans, but I think, with their entire season on the line, they should rebound and beat the Panthers at home, sending them back to the playoffs.

1:00 – Tampa Bay (3-12) at NEW ORLEANS (10-5)
If the Saints need a win in Week Seventeen, they have the perfect co-conspirators to get it done.  Tampa at home?  Atlanta or Carolina better win this division before the final game because this is a walkover for the defending champs.

4:15 – SAN DIEGO (11-4) at Denver (4-11)
It was really just two years ago when these two teams played in Week Seventeen for the AFC West title?  Well, they have both gone in opposite directions since then.  The Chargers should handle the Broncos with ease and take the #2-seed in the AFC again.

4:15 – Arizona (6-9) at SAN FRANCISCO (8-7)
Even if Arizona keeps it close through the year, the Niners get this final game at home and should be able to take care of business and win the division.  It’s a nice hammer to have for them, knowing that they only have to stay within a game and they get their shot, at home, in Week Seventeen.

4:15 – St. Louis (2-13) at SEATTLE (4-11)
A long trip for a bad game.  I’ll take the Seahawks.

FINAL STANDINGS
NFC EAST
11-5 Dallas
10-6 Philadelphia
8-8 N.Y. Giants
4-12 Washington

The Cowboys win the Week Seventeen title game and win the NFC Beast for the second straight year.  The Eagles are going to the playoffs with a solid 10-6 “rebuilding” year.  The Giants finish a disappointing 8-8, while the Redskins don’t even improve on last year’s win total.

NFC NORTH
12-4 Green Bay
9-7 Minnesota
8-8 Chicago
6-10 Detroit

The Packers wrap up homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.  The Vikings finish a disappointing 9-7.  The Bears, after a strong start, come back to reality and finish 8-8.  The Lions have the arrow moving in the right direction.

NFC SOUTH
11-5 New Orleans
10-6 Atlanta
9-7 Carolina
3-13 Tampa Bay

The Saints are the first ever back-to-back NFC South champs.  The Falcons go back to the playoffs with a big win over Carolina.  Tampa struggles again.

NFC WEST
9-7 San Francisco
6-10 Arizona
5-11 Seattle
2-14 St. Louis

After a ton of hype for several years, Mike Singletary finally leads his team to the playoffs, winning the NFC West.  This division was really, really bad all season long.

AFC EAST
12-4 New England
9-7 Miami
9-7 N.Y. Jets
1-15 Buffalo

The Pats beat Miami, but will fall short of a first-round bye.  The Dolphins loss this week eliminates them from the playoffs, and the Jets will also be watching from home.  The Bills win the Jake Locker sweepstakes with a putrid 1-15 season.

AFC NORTH
11-5 Baltimore
10-6 Cincinnati
10-6 Pittsburgh
3-13 Cleveland

The Ravens win the AFC North Championship Game against Cincy and take the division.  With losses to Tennessee and Miami, this division will take both AFC wild cards.

AFC SOUTH
13-3 Indianapolis
9-7 Houston
9-7 Tennessee
6-10 Jacksonville

The Colts clinch the top-seed…again.  The Texans fall a game short of the playoffs…again.  The Titans took a big loss here and are going to miss the playoffs…again.  Jacksonville should (but probably won’t) fire Jack Del Rio…AGAIN.

AFC WEST
12-4 San Diego
8-8 Oakland
7-9 Kansas City
4-12 Denver

The Chargers clinch the first-round bye with a win and an Indy win.  The Chiefs finish out an encouraging year with a win over Oakland.  The Raiders lose six of their final seven games to ruin a promising start.  The Broncos have a lot of rebuilding to do.

THE PLAYOFFS
NFC
#6 Atlanta (10-6) at #3 New Orleans (11-5)
#5 Philadelphia (10-6) at #4 San Francisco (9-7)

t.b.d. vs. #2 Dallas (11-5)
t.b.d. vs. #1 Green Bay (12-4)

The Packers are the top-seed, as the only NFC team to win 12 games.  Dallas’s Thanksgiving Day win over New Orleans wins them the tiebreaker over the Saints and gives them the all-important first-round bye.  New Orleans, NFC South champs, are #3.  San Fran, who has been in the #4-spot all year, finishes there and will host the Eagles on wild card weekend.  The Birds beat Atlanta in Week Six to earn the #5-seed.  The Falcons win over Carolina got them in and sends them to New Orleans as the #6-seed.

AFC
#6 Cincinnati (10-6) at #3 New England (12-4)
#5 Pittsburgh (10-6) at #4 Baltimore (11-5)

t.b.d. at #2 San Diego (12-4)
t.b.d. at #1 Indianapolis (13-3)

Six teams with double-digit wins and six playoff spots.  That is how it’s supposed to work.  The Colts clinch another #1-seed with a league-best 13-3 record.  The Chargers, on the strength of their Week Seven win over New England, get the first-round bye.  The Pats have to settle for the #3-seed.  The Ravens, after winning the AFC North are the #4-seed and will host their arch-rivals, the Steelers, who snuck into the playoffs and took the #5-seed on the back of a season-sweep of Cincinnati (Weeks Nine and Fourteen).  The Bengals have to settle for #6.

Click here for The Playoffs (available 9/11 at 7:00 pm).

Week Fifteen went a long way to separating the men from the boys, and Week Sixteen should go even further.  We should get a somewhat clear playoff picture after this week.

Thursday, December 23:
8:20 – Carolina (9-5) at PITTSBURGH (8-6)
The Steelers will need this one desperately, as might the Panthers, but the Steelers are a better team and playing at home.  The Panthers may be looking ahead to a big-time showdown against the Falcons in Week Seventeen, as well.

Saturday, December 25 (Christmas Day):
7:30 – DALLAS (9-5) at Arizona (6-8)
The last stand for the Cardinals might come here on Christmas Day, as they host the Cowboys.  Dallas, coming off of a nice win over Washington has to get back up for this road game.  But, it’s not that far of a trip, and like Thanksgiving, it might be more of a distraction to be at home on holiday games than on the road.  I like the ‘Boys to take this one.

Sunday, December 26:
1:00 – N.Y. JETS (7-7) at Chicago (8-6)
This the last stand for the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets, and I think they will come through.  They may be devastated from four straight losses, but they’re not eliminated, and I see them playing with a ton of pride here.  The Bears, who also need this game, are coming off of a tough Monday night game in Minnesota and are staring at a trip to Lambeau Field in Week Seventeen.

1:00 – NEW ENGLAND (10-4) at Buffalo (1-13)
The Pats need this game to clinch the division, and they should be able to get it with ease.  The Bills stink, home or away.

1:00 – BALTIMORE (9-5) at Cleveland (3-11)
This is a nice, cushy game for the Ravens, heading into a Week Seventeen tussle with Cincinnati.

1:00 – Tennessee (9-5) at KANSAS CITY (5-9)
This is a really tough one.  It’s hard to imagine that a playoff-caliber team could lose a Week Sixteen game against the Chiefs, but (1) I don’t really think of Tennessee as a true “playoff-caliber” team and (2) this game is smack-dab in the middle of their two biggest games of the year, with Houston last week and Indy next week.  This looks like a trap to me.

1:00 – Minnesota (8-6) at PHILADELPHIA (9-5)
This might be a de facto playoff game here in Week Sixteen.  Again, the schedule-makers give the Birds a bit of a break, as the Vikings have a short week before this game on the road.  Yes, it’ll be a tough one, but I like the Eagles to get it done, at home, against a beat-up Vikings team.

1:00 – Seattle (4-10) at TAMPA BAY (2-12)
A very long trip.  A 1:00 game.  A bad Seattle team.  I don’t care who it it, Seattle’s not winning this game.

1:00 – SAN FRANCISCO (7-7) at St. Louis (2-12)
A very long trip.  A 1:00 game.  But, this is not a bad San Fran team.  This is where the “men” that Singletary has created step up and show their coach a little something.

1:00 – Detroit (6-8) at MIAMI (8-6)
This is a nice spot for the Dolphins in a place where they may just really need a win.  I like the ‘Phins at home.

1:00 – Washington (3-11) at JACKSONVILLE (5-9)
I can’t wait to not care at all about this game.  In fact, the only people that might care less than I will about this game are the players in it.  Both teams will have quit for the season by now, so give me the home team.

4:05 – HOUSTON (7-7) at Denver (4-10)
A game that the Texans will desperately need.  The Broncos stink.  Give me Houston, on the road.

4:05 – INDIANAPOLIS (11-3) at Oakland (8-6)
A playoff preview?  Haha…no.  The Raiders are now paying the price for a relatively easy opening schedule, as the Colts (if they need this game, which in this scenario, they do) should have no trouble winning on the Left Coast.

4:15 – N.Y. Giants (8-6) at GREEN BAY (10-4)
Lambeau Field on the day after Christmas.  A Green Bay team that is just better than the Giants and is looking for homefield advantage through the playoffs.  Sounds like a recipe for a nice Packers win here.

8:20 – San Diego (11-3) at CINCINNATI (9-5)
This one is really tough.  It has all the makings of a trap game for Cincy with a division showdown against Baltimore coming up next week, but I just don’t trust Norv Turner in a game like this.  Plus, the Chargers should have the division wrapped up by now–granted, they will be playing for a bye, but is it enough to motivate a San Diego team playing in freezing Ohio in late-December?  In a tough one, I like the Bengals (on whom, if you couldn’t tell, I’m pretty bullish this year).

Monday, December 27:
8:30 – NEW ORLEANS (9-5) at Atlanta (9-5)
The game of the week is, as it should be, on Monday Night Football.  This game should decide, at least, the NFC South, if not a bye or even homefield advantage in the NFC.  The Saints have to play this game, on the road, coming off a brutal trip to Baltimore.  The Falcons get this game after a viciously long road trip to the Pacific Northwest.  Fortunately, for both teams, they get an extra day of rest for it.  I have gone back and forth several times about this game, and I’m still pretty unsure of my thoughts on it.  But, my final decision comes down to having more trust in the experience of the New Orleans coach-quarterback combination than I of the Atlanta coach-QB.  But, only by a hair.

STANDINGS AFTER WEEK 16
NFC EAST
10-5 Dallas
10-5 Philadelphia
8-7 N.Y. Giants
3-12 Washington

For an amazing third year in a row, the 2010 NFC Beast will come down to a Week Seventeen game between the Eagles and Cowboys.  The Giants loss to Green Bay essentially ends their playoff hopes.  The Deadskins are, well, dead.

NFC NORTH
11-4 Green Bay
8-7 Chicago
8-7 Minnesota
6-9 Detroit

A really tough loss for the Vikings in Philly puts them on life support.  An equally devastating loss for the Bears at home against the Jets has them there, as well.  The Packers win over the Giants clinches them the NFC North and puts them a win away from the #1-seed.

NFC SOUTH
10-5 New Orleans
9-6 Atlanta
9-6 Carolina
3-12 Tampa Bay

A monumental win for the Saints in Atlanta on Monday night puts them in complete control of this division.  The Panthers were right there, but suffered a tough loss in Pittsburgh on Thursday and are now enter a de facto playoff game in Atlanta in Week Seventeen.

NFC WEST
8-7 San Francisco
6-9 Arizona
4-11 Seattle
2-13 St. Louis

An Arizona loss at home against Dallas on Christmas, coupled with a San Fran win in St. Louis the next day, give the 49ers the NFC West, and renders the Week Seventeen Arizona-SF game meaningless.

AFC EAST
11-4 New England
9-6 Miami
8-7 N.Y. Jets
1-14 Buffalo

The Pats clinch yet another AFC East title and are fighting for the bye.  The Dolphins got a big win to stay in the playoff hunt.  The Jets got a must win and are just barely breathing.  At least the Bills got that win over Jacksonville in Week Five.

AFC NORTH
10-5 Baltimore
10-5 Cincinnati
9-6 Pittsburgh
3-12 Cleveland

The Ravens beat Cleveland on the road, while Cincy handles San Diego at home, setting up a division championship game between these two in Baltimore in Week Seventeen.  The Steelers beat Carolina to inch closer to a possible wild card.

AFC SOUTH
12-3 Indianapolis
9-6 Tennessee
8-7 Houston
6-9 Jacksonville

The Colts win another AFC South.  The Titans take a huge loss in Kansas City and are now in trouble.  The Texans win in Houston to stay alive–barely.

AFC WEST
11-4 San Diego
8-7 Oakland
6-9 Kansas City
4-11 Denver

You can stick a fork in the Raiders, after losing this week at home against Indy.  The Chargers also lose and now are in jeopardy of losing out on the bye.

PLAYOFF PICTURE AFTER WEEK 16
NFC
#6 Carolina (9-6) at #3 Philadelphia (10-5)
#5 Dallas (10-5) at #4 San Francisco (8-7)

t.b.d. vs. #2 New Orleans (10-5)
t.b.d. vs. #1 Green Bay (11-4)

Still Alive:  Atlanta (9-6)

The Packers still hold a one-game lead for homefield advantage.  The Saints have now gone back into the #2-spot, thanks to their advantage in conference record over the NFC Beast leaders, Philly, who are #3.  The Niners have completely clinched #4.  The Cowboys are #5.  Right now, the Panthers are #6 because of their Week Fourteen win over Atlanta, but this will be settled on the field.  And, because the Falcons and Panthers play each other Week Seventeen, they both can’t lose, so the 8-7 teams (Giants, Vikings, and Bears) are all out.  The top 5 seeds have all clinched playoff berths.

AFC
#6 Tennessee (9-6) at #3 New England (11-4)
#5 Baltimore (10-5) at #4 Cincinnati (10-5)

t.b.d. at #2 San Diego (11-4)
t.b.d. at #1 Indianapolis (12-3)

Still Alive:  Miami (9-6), Pittsburgh (9-6), Houston (8-7), N.Y. Jets (8-7), Oakland (8-7)

The AFC, all of a sudden, is much murkier than the NFC.  The Colts are a win away from the homefield advantage.  The Chargers hold a tiebreaker over the Pats for the #2.  The AFC North has its championship game in Baltimore Week Seventeen, but right now it’s the Bengals at #4.  The Ravens are #5.  There is a three-way tie for the last spot.  The Titans are in the driver’s seat, considering they beat Pittsburgh in Week Two and Miami in Week Ten, but the Titans have Indy this week, so we’ll see.  The Texans, Jets, and Raiders are still technically alive, but it would take a miracle.

Click here for Week Seventeen (available 9/11 at 11:00 am).

Man, this is getting good–as always.  Week Fourteen got us all ready for the stretch run and the playoffs, and now Week Fifteen should bring it to a fevered pitch.

Thursday, December 16:
8:20 – San Francisco (7-6) at SAN DIEGO (10-3)
The Chargers are just the better team and are at home.  I was given real pause in this game because I usually really value coaching on short weeks, and I think that Mike Singletary is about 87 times the coach that Norv Turner is, but Norv just has better players, and I think the Bolts will win despite their head coach.

Sunday, December 19:
1:00 – Kansas City (5-8) at ST. LOUIS (1-12)
It’s just about time that Sam Bradford adjusts well to the speed of the game and whatnot.  In this battle of a terrible football state right now, I actually like the Rams to come out on top.

1:00 – Buffalo (1-12) at MIAMI (7-6)
The Dolphins are coming off a really tough trip to the New Meadowlands to face the Jets, but the Bills are terrible.  This is a nice respite in what has otherwise been a grueling schedule for the Fish.

1:00 – Cleveland (3-10) at CINCINNATI (8-5)
The Bengals, coming off a tough game at Pittsburgh last week and preparing to host the Chargers next week, got a bit of a break here because the Browns just aren’t very good.  This game could be a bit of a trap, but I like the Bengals to get through it.

1:00 – Jacksonville (5-8) at INDIANAPOLIS (10-3)
The Colts, with a lot more to play for than Jax at this point in the season–most likely–and I can’t imagine the Colts throwing this one back.

1:00 – Houston (7-6) at TENNESSEE (8-5)
The Titans catch another scheduling break here, as the Texans are coming off a physical Monday night game against Baltimore, while Tennessee hasn’t played since Thursday night.  Three more days than normal for the Titans; one fewer day than normal for the Texans; and, it’s in Tennessee?  You gotta respect the schedule here and go with the Titans.

1:00 – Washington (3-10) at DALLAS (8-5)
Arch-rivals going in different directions.  Yes, the Cowboys are coming off of a tough game against the Eagles and have to prepare for a Christmas Day game next Saturday, but I don’t see them dropping one here to a bad Redskins team.  Yes, the ‘Skins are dangerous because they probably only care about being sleepers to their division rivals right now, but I don’t think they have the horses to get it done in Big D.

1:00 – Philadelphia (9-4) at N.Y. GIANTS (7-6)
I can’t really express to you all how painful it is to me to pick the Giants to beat the Eagles.  It actually makes me want to throw up, but I have to do it here.  While both teams really need this game, I think that the Giants–at home–might need it a little bit more.  Throw in the fact that the Eagles are coming off of a Sunday night war in Dallas and now they have another road game against a division rival, and I just don’t see it.  –cringe–  Give me Big Blue here in a crucial game.

1:00 – Arizona (6-7) at CAROLINA (8-5)
If you asked me (before looking at the schedule) what I thought of Carolina, I probably would have said “7 or 8 wins–with more likely 6 than 9.”  But, with this home win here, at 1:00 against Arizona, I’ve already got them at 9 with two more to play.  But, hey, you can’t argue with the schedule, and there is no real reason why they wouldn’t win this one here.

1:00 – DETROIT (5-8) at Tampa Bay (2-11)
The schedule has really opened up for the Lions, so if they can survive a really tough go of it early and still play hard, they could be in line for a decent jump in wins.  I think they are a better team than Tampa and have the ability to go in there and steal one.

1:00 – New Orleans (9-4) at BALTIMORE (8-5)
This was, BY FAR, the toughest game of the week to pick for me.  I had no idea what to do here.  The Ravens are working on a short week, after playing in Houston on Monday night.  The Saints are coming off a pretty easy home game against St. Louis.  The Ravens have a road trip to Cleveland next week, which is not easy, but nothing for them to look ahead to.  The Saints, however, have a huge showdown next Monday night in the Georgia Dome against the Falcons.  Both teams really need this game, but I am going to go with the home team here because I think that a December afternoon in Baltimore hurts the Saints style of play a lot more than it hurts the Ravens.  But, this is a real tough one.

4:05 – Atlanta (9-4) at SEATTLE (3-10)
Now, I’m not incredibly confident with this pick, but there are reasons for it.  The Falcons are clearly the better team here, but they are coming off of a tough divisional game at Carolina and are playing in a place that’s historically tough on road teams.  Plus, it’s probably incredibly difficult for the Falcons not to take this Seattle team lightly, particularly with a gigantic game with the Saints coming up next week.  Throw in the distance that they have to travel (Atlanta to Seattle is no joke), and I think this is a really trap-type spot for the Dirty Birds.  See, this is where an examination of all the schedule’s intangibles sometimes reveal things you otherwise wouldn’t see.

4:15 – N.Y. Jets (7-6) at PITTSBURGH (7-6)
This game may prove to be an elimination game for the AFC playoffs.  Both teams are going to really need this game.  I like the Steelers at home because I think that they actually are the one team in the league that can say they have a better defense than the Jets, and they actually have an offense to go with it.

4:15 – Denver (4-9) at OAKLAND (7-6)
The Raiders finally get through the brutal part of their schedule and get a very winnable game here at home.  The Broncos are not good and should be out of it by this point in the season.

8:20 – Green Bay (10-3) at NEW ENGLAND (9-4)
A possible Super Bowl matchup in late December.  I like the Pats here because the Packers have not proven, yet, to be a great road team.  This should be a real shootout (if the weather holds up on a cold Boston night), but I like Brady to outgun Rodgers in a great Sunday night game.

Monday, December 17:
8:30 – Chicago (8-5) at MINNESOTA (7-6)
Assuming the old man is still upright, I like the Vikings to get right back into the discussion here with a big Monday night win over the Bears.  The Vikes are a better team; they are at home; and, they should really need this game.  Give me Minnesota on the grand stage.

STANDINGS AFTER WEEK 15
NFC EAST
9-5 Dallas
9-5 Philadelphia
8-6 N.Y. Giants
3-11 Washington

The Eagles lose to the Giants, while the Cowboys beat the Redskins.  The Eagles have the tiebreaker here, but they still have to face Dallas in Week Seventeen.  The Giants are very much alive with two to play.

NFC NORTH
10-4 Green Bay
8-6 Chicago
8-6 Minnesota
6-8 Detroit

The Vikings stay alive with a Monday night win over Chicago.  That loss hurt the Bears.  The Packers also lose and come back to the pack a little bit, but still are a win away from locking up the division.  Another nice win for Detroit, and the Lions are two wins from a .500 season.

NFC SOUTH
9-5 Atlanta
9-5 Carolina
9-5 New Orleans
2-12 Tampa Bay

All of a sudden–to the surprise of many–this is a three-horse race.  The Panthers win over Arizona coupled with losses for New Orleans and Atlanta give Carolina a piece of a three-way division lead with two to play.

NFC WEST
7-7 San Francisco
6-8 Arizona
4-10 Seattle
2-12 St. Louis

The war of attrition in the NFC West continues, as the Niners, at 7-7, hold a one-game lead over Arizona.  The Rams and Seahawks both won this week–wouldn’t have bet on that one.

AFC EAST
10-4 New England
8-6 Miami
7-7 N.Y. Jets
1-13 Buffalo

Miami handles Buffalo to move into second-place by themselves.  The Pats are a win away from yet another AFC East crown, as they took out Green Bay on Sunday night.  The Jets took a huge loss at Pittsburgh and now are in a world of trouble.

AFC NORTH
9-5 Baltimore
9-5 Cincinnati
8-6 Pittsburgh
3-11 Cleveland

Three more huge wins for the big three in this division.  The Ravens took out New Orleans; the Steelers beat the Jets; and, Cincy took care of division and in-state rival Cleveland.  Brutal…

AFC SOUTH
11-3 Indianapolis
9-5 Tennessee
7-7 Houston
5-9 Jacksonville

The Colts are a win away from winning another division title.  The Titans got a gigantic win over the Texans and are in pretty good playoff shape here.  The Texans are on life support after their loss at Tennessee.  Jacksonville is officially done.

AFC WEST
11-3 San Diego
8-6 Oakland
5-9 Kansas City
4-10 Denver

The Chargers are officially the first team to clinch their division, doing in on Thursday night with a win over San Fran.  The Raiders kept their playoff hopes alive with a win over Denver.

PLAYOFF PICTURE AFTER WEEK 15
NFC
#6 New Orleans (9-5) at #3 Philadelphia (9-5)
#5 Dallas (9-5) at #4 San Francisco (7-7)

t.b.d. vs. #2 Carolina (9-5)
t.b.d. vs. #1 Green Bay (10-4)

Still Alive:  Atlanta (9-5), Chicago (8-6), Minnesota (8-6), N.Y. Giants (8-6), Arizona (6-8)

With the exception of Dallas, every single team that had an NFC playoff spot last week lost this week, and one team on the outside last week took full advantage.  Carolina went from out of the playoffs to a bye position by taking the lead in the NFC South.  The Packers are still #1, the Panthers are #2.  The Eagles keep the NFC East lead thanks to their win over Dallas in Week Fourteen and are #3.  The Niners are #4, as they have been every week we’ve done this.  The Cowboys have actually unseated the NFC South stronghold on the top wild card and are the #5-seed, thanks to their Thanksgiving Day win over the Saints.  New Orleans beat Atlanta in Week Three, which gives them the #6-seed.  The Falcons are out, as of now.  The Vikings, Giants, and Bears are still lurking for a wild card.  The Cardinals are still only a game behind the 49ers, but have been eliminated for a wild card.

AFC
#6 Baltimore (9-5) at #3 New England (10-4)
#5 Tennessee (9-5) at #4 Cincinnati (9-5)

t.b.d. at #2 San Diego (11-3)
t.b.d. at #1 Indianapolis (11-3)

Still Alive:  Miami (8-6), Oakland (8-6), Pittsburgh (8-6), Houston (7-7), N.Y. Jets (7-7)

It is almost the exact opposite here in the AFC, as every playoff positioned team won in Week Fifteen.  The seedings don’t change from last week.  The Colts have the tiebreaker over San Diego for homefield advantage.  The Bengals have the tiebreaker over Baltimore for the AFC North, and the Titans have the tiebreaker over the Ravens for the #5-seed.  The Dolphins, Steelers, and Raiders are very much in it.  The Jets and Texans need a near-miracle.

Click here for Week Sixteen (available 9/10 at 7:00 pm).

After a thrilling Week Thirteen, the whole sports world is abuzz over the playoff scenarios and situations in the NFL.  With a ton of intra-divisional matchups, Week Fourteen is going to be fantastic.

Thursday, December 9:
8:20 – Indianapolis (10-2) at TENNESSEE (7-5)
I love the home team with a great coach on a short week.  Plus, I think that the Colts defense could be a little banged up after chasing around the Cowboys running backs last week, so this might be a big week for Chris Johnson.  I like the Titans in a big upset on the Network.

Sunday, December 12:
1:00 – New England (9-3) at CHICAGO (7-5)
Can the Bears really get this done, coming off a stunning defeat to the Lions?  I think they can.  The Pats are coming off a brutal Monday night game at the Jets and now they have to travel to Chicago.  Plus, the one main weakness for the Pats this year is their secondary, so Mike Martz might be able to dial something up.  I’m not confident with this one, but give me ‘da Bears at home.

1:00 – CLEVELAND (2-10) at Buffalo (1-11)
Something’s gotta give, right?  I just think the Browns will care more at this point in the season.

1:00 – Cincinnati (8-4) at PITTSBURGH (6-6)
A absolutely gigantic game in the Black & Blue division.  The Steelers might really need this game at this point to stay alive and should come out with all their guns a-blazin’.  I like the black & gold to take this one at home in a slugfest, even coming off a really tough game in B-more.

1:00 – Oakland (7-5) at JACKSONVILLE (4-8)
And, here is where the wheels completely come off for the Raiders.  A 1:00 game in Florida is not exactly easy for a young Raiders team that is probably feeling the pressure right now.  The Jags are still a decent team and should get this game at home, delivering a crushing blow to the Raiders playoff hopes.

1:00 – TAMPA BAY (1-11) at Washington (3-9)
The ‘Skins aren’t bad enough to lose at home to Tampa…right?  Wrong.  At 3-9, their only motivation left is to play spoiler to their division rivals.  They have Dallas next week, so this game is not really on their minds.  And, Josh Freeman, the young Tampa QB might be looking for a stand to take here in his young career.

1:00 – GREEN BAY (9-3) at Detroit (5-7)
The feisty Lions have been playing well as of late, but this is a tall order.  Yes, the Packers have New England next week, but I think that they go on a business trip to Motown and get it done.

1:00 – N.Y. Giants (7-5) at MINNESOTA (6-6)
These teams seem to play important games late in the season every year and here they have it again.  I just think the Vikings are a better football team and, if they are still whole by this game, should be able to take care of the Giants at home in a big game.

1:00 – Atlanta (9-3) at CAROLINA (7-5)
The Falcons had a week to smell themselves and think they’re great before getting jolted back to reality here.  Carolina is a tough team that needs this game.  I like John Fox’s motivational skills here to get Carolina a big win here in Week Fourteen.

4:05 – St. Louis (1-11) at NEW ORLEANS (8-4)
The Saints have Baltimore next week, but that shouldn’t change anything that happens here.  This game might get ugly, if the Saints are taking out recent frustrations.

4:05 – Seattle (3-9) at SAN FRANCISCO (6-6)
San Fran can smell the division slipping away, so they should be up and ready for this one at home.  The Seahawks probably won’t be in it by now and should go away quietly.

4:15 – MIAMI (6-6) at N.Y. Jets (7-5)
The Jets are coming off a really tough Monday night game against New England, while the Dolphins know that their season might come down to single games like this one.  I like Miami’s coaching staff and their ability to get the team ready for the big games, and I don’t think that their style of play will be all that affected by the cold of Jersey in December.  I like the Dolphins to deal a serious blow to the Jets here.

4:15 – Denver (4-8) at ARIZONA (5-7)
The Cardinals continue to take advantage of the soft spot in their schedule, as they should roll over a pretty defeated Broncos team by now.

4:15 – Kansas City (5-7) at SAN DIEGO (9-3)
The Chargers are finally putting some distance between them and the rest of their division and are now playing for the bye.  They shouldn’t have any trouble with the Chiefs at home.

8:20 – PHILADELPHIA (8-4) at Dallas (8-4)
Okay, maybe I’m a homer, but, again, the schedule is speaking to me and it’s saying to pick the Birds here on the road.  The Eagles have 10 days to prepare for this game, while the Cowboys are coming off a really tough road trip to Indy.  Plus, it’s December, and if history has taught us anything, it’s that Andy Reid teams are terrific in December and Wade Phillips teams are abysmal.  This is a tough one, but I’ll take the Birds on the road because that’s what the schedule is telling me.

Monday, December 13:
8:30 – Baltimore (8-4) at HOUSTON (6-6)
This is a really tough spot for the Ravens.  The Texans are a tough team, especially at home, and this game falls right in between games against the past two Super Bowl champs (Steelers last week, Saints next week).  This is just a real tall order.  Give me the Texans here on Monday night.

STANDINGS AFTER WEEK 14
NFC EAST
9-4 Philadelphia
8-5 Dallas
7-6 N.Y. Giants
3-10 Washington

A huge win for the Eagles at Dallas, and the Birds take control of this division.  The Redskins lose at home to Tampa and it has gotten really low for them.

NFC NORTH
10-3 Green Bay
8-5 Chicago
7-6 Minnesota
5-8 Detroit

Big wins for the top three teams in the North, as the Packers win in Detroit, the Vikings win at home against the Giants, and the Bears get the best of all with a win over New England.

NFC SOUTH
9-4 Atlanta
9-4 New Orleans
8-5 Carolina
2-11 Tampa Bay

A huge win for Carolina over Atlanta and the division is tied again at the top, with the Panthers knocking on the door.

NFC WEST
7-6 San Francisco
6-7 Arizona
3-10 Seattle
1-12 St. Louis

The Cardinals, with their fourth win in five weeks, are still just a game back of San Fran, who picked up a nice home win over Seattle.

AFC EAST
9-4 New England
7-6 Miami
7-6 N.Y. Jets
1-12 Buffalo

Both the Pats and Jets lose six days after their war on Monday night last week.  The Dolphins, who beat the Jets in the New Meadowlands, are now tied for second and securely in the wild card mix.

AFC NORTH
8-5 Baltimore
8-5 Cincinnati
7-6 Pittsburgh
3-10 Cleveland

What a big week for the Black & Blue division.  The Steelers knock off the Bengals (keeping them alive), while the Ravens lose in Houston.  This division just beats itself up and might only produce one playoff team because of it.

AFC SOUTH
10-3 Indianapolis
8-5 Tennessee
7-6 Houston
5-8 Jacksonville

Tennessee shocks the Colts on Thursday night, and every team in the division gains a game on the leaders.  A nice win for Houston over the Ravens, and the Jags knocked off Oakland at home.

AFC WEST
10-3 San Diego
7-6 Oakland
5-8 Kansas City
4-9 Denver

Four straight losses for the Raiders have dropped them to 7-6 and in a lot of trouble.  The Chargers beat KC to open up a three-game lead.  The Broncos lost in Arizona.

PLAYOFF PICTURE AFTER WEEK 14
NFC
#6 Dallas (8-5) at #3 Philadelphia (9-4)
#5 Atlanta (9-4) at #4 San Francisco (7-6)

t.b.d. vs. #2 New Orleans (9-4)
t.b.d. vs. #1 Green Bay (10-3)

In the mix:  Carolina (8-5), Chicago (8-5), Minnesota (7-6), N.Y. Giants (7-6), Arizona (6-7)

After Week Fourteen, the Eagles and Saints have passed the Cowboys and Falcons as division leaders.  The Saints are #2 because of their conference record.  The Packers are a game clear of everyone for #1.  The Eagles are #3.  The Niners are, of course, #4, with the Falcons back in their familiar #5-spot.  There is now a three-way tie for the final wild card, with the tiebreaker going to Dallas on the strength of their Week Two win over the Bears.  The Giants and Vikings are a game back of the wild card.  The Cardinals are a game back of the NFC West title.

AFC
#6 Baltimore (8-5) at #3 New England (9-4)
#5 Tennessee (8-5) at #4 Cincinnati (8-5)

t.b.d. at #2 San Diego (10-3)
t.b.d. at #1 Indianapolis (10-3)

In the mix:  Houston (7-6), Miami (7-6), N.Y. Jets (7-6), Oakland (7-6), Pittsburgh (7-6)

New England and Indy both lost, while San Diego won.  The top three spots didn’t change, though, as Indy’s Week Twelve win over SD gives them the top spot.  The Bengals still have the tiebreaker over Baltimore for the North and the #4-seed.  The Titans have a better conference record, so they are #5, while the Ravens are #6.

Click here for Week Fifteen (available 9/10 at 11:00 am).

Week Twelve gave us some answers, but it also gave us some questions.  Maybe Week Thirteen’s great full slate will give us more answers as we enter December and approach the final stretch of the season.

Thursday, December 2:
8:30 – Houston (6-5) at PHILADELPHIA (7-4)
A really tough game for both teams at this point in the season, on a short week.  But, in these short weeks, I usually like to go with the home team and/or the team with the better coach.  The Eagles have both of those check-marks, and therefore, should be able to survive this important game.

Sunday, December 5:
1:00 – Buffalo (1-10) at MINNESOTA (5-6)
At this point, the Bills are just thinking about where they’re going for their January family vacations.  They will not go into Minnesota and win a game that the Vikes desperately need.

1:00 – Cleveland (2-9) at MIAMI (5-6)
The Browns may still be playing hard, but they don’t have the horses to beat Miami in Miami.

1:00 – Jacksonville (4-7) at TENNESSEE (6-5)
In what might be an elimination game at this point in the season, I like the Titans to take care of business here at home against the Jags.

1:00 – Denver (4-7) at KANSAS CITY (4-7)
I actually think the Chiefs are a better team and a team that will be more involved in a late-season game of also-rans.  Give me the Chiefs at home.

1:00 – Washington (3-8) at N.Y. GIANTS (6-5)
The only thing left for the ‘Skins by Week Thirteen is to play spoiler.  They have a good chance to do that in this game against the Giants, but I don’t see it happening.  The Giants should be able to hold on to a home game that they will really need.

1:00 – Chicago (7-4) at DETROIT (4-7)
The Bears are coming off a big home win against the Eagles and are now seriously thinking playoffs.  But, the Lions have 10 days to prepare for this game, and the Bears may be looking past this to a big game with New England next week.  I like the Lions to get it done at home and put a really hurting on the Bears playoff hopes.

1:00 – San Francisco (6-5) at GREEN BAY (8-3)
San Fran on a short week.  The Packers at home in December.  A West Coast team at 1:00.  This one’s easy.

1:00 – ATLANTA (8-3) at Tampa Bay (1-10)
This might be a bit of a trap game for the Falcons with Green Bay last week and Carolina next week, but I think the loss last week puts enough emphasis on this game that the Falcons will be able to beat a bad Tampa team.

1:00 – New Orleans (8-3) at CINCINNATI (7-4)
Call me crazy, but I believe in the Cincinnati Bengals, and this game might be the ultimate test of whether or not they’re real.  Both teams played on Thanksgiving, so both teams will be well-prepared.  I actually think that favors the Saints because of a pretty big coaching advantage of Payton over Lewis.  But, this is also one of those games where the Super Bowl hangover might play a role.  It’s going to be cold and miserable in Ohio in December.  All the hunger that the Bengals have to try and make this season special might be tempered on the Saints side because they just tasted glory.  This is the type of game that is won with hunger, and I think the Bengals have it, and the defending champs might not.

4:05 – Oakland (7-4) at SAN DIEGO (8-3)
The better team should win at home, despite coming off a tough Sunday night game with Indy.  The Chargers are the class of the division and should prove it this week.

4:15 – Dallas (8-3) at INDIANAPOLIS (9-2)
In their last five games, the Colts have played the Eagles, Bengals, Patriots, Chargers, and now the Cowboys in succession.  Book-ended by Houston and Tennessee, it is an absolutely brutal stretch of games for this century’s best regular-season team.  But, they are up for the task, as I think they can get the job done at home against the Cowboys.  It doesn’t hurt that the ‘Boys have the Eagles next week in a big NFC Beast showdown.

4:15 – St. Louis (1-10) at ARIZONA (4-6)
Again, I’m not ready to pick the Rams on the road against anyone in the league.

4:15 – Carolina (7-4) at SEATTLE (2-9)
Charlotte to Seattle is a very long way, especially coming off a road trip last week and looking ahead to a big game against Atlanta next week.  This is a really tough spot for the Panthers, and I think they’ll slip up here–a huge blow to their playoff chances.

8:20 – Pittsburgh (6-5) at BALTIMORE (7-4)
The Showdown.  This game is going to be phenomenal.  A Sunday night in December between two hated rivals, with both desperately needing a win.  I like the Ravens to get it done at home.  The Steelers have a tough stretch, as they get the Bengals at home next week.

Monday, December 6:
8:30 – N.Y. Jets (7-4) at NEW ENGLAND (8-3)
Both teams have 11 days to prepare for this game, so it should be top-notch football.  In the end, I think that the Pats are just too good (and Belichick is too good) to lose this game at home.

STANDINGS AFTER WEEK 13
NFC EAST
8-4 Dallas
8-4 Philadelphia
7-5 N.Y. Giants
3-9 Washington

Dallas’s loss to Indy brings the division back to them, as the Eagles are now tied with them, and the Giants are only a game back.

NFC NORTH
9-3 Green Bay
7-5 Chicago
6-6 Minnesota
5-7 Detroit

A brutal loss for the Bears in Detroit drops them two games back of the Packers, who picked up a nice win over San Fran.  The Vikings continue the comeback trail, evening their record at 6-6.  Don’t look now, but the Lions are a respectable 5-7, as they’ve won three of their last four.

NFC SOUTH
9-3 Atlanta
8-4 New Orleans
7-5 Carolina
1-11 Tampa Bay

A bad loss for the Panthers are Seattle is not the story of the week.  The story is that we have a new leader in the NFC South, and it’s the Falcons.  The Saints loss at Cincy, coupled with the Falcons win in Tampa give the Dirty Birds the top spot in this tough division.

NFC WEST
6-6 San Francisco
5-7 Arizona
3-9 Seattle
1-11 St. Louis

And, we’ve got a race all of a sudden, as the Cardinals win over St. Louis picks up another game, as the Niners lose to Green Bay.  The Seahawks have won two straight, but it’s too little, too late for Pete Carroll and the boys.

AFC EAST
9-3 New England
7-5 N.Y. Jets
6-6 Miami
1-11 Buffalo

The Pats get a huge win on Monday night over the Jets to complete the season sweep and put them two clear of the Jets in the East.  The Dolphins have won three straight to get themselves back in the conversation.

AFC NORTH
8-4 Baltimore
8-4 Cincinnati
6-6 Pittsburgh
2-10 Cleveland

Cincy gets a gigantic win over New Orleans, but it’s not the biggest win of the week, as the Ravens beat the Steelers on Sunday night to sweep the season series from their arch-rivals.  The Steelers, like other thought-to-be-contenders Miami and Minnesota, are now 6-6 and have their work cut out for them if they want to make the playoffs.

AFC SOUTH
10-2 Indianapolis
7-5 Tennessee
6-6 Houston
4-8 Jacksonville

The Colts are the first team to 10 wins, as they beat Dallas this week.  Tennessee put the last nail in the Jacksonville coffin this week, while the Texans returned to their familiar .500 mark.

AFC WEST
9-3 San Diego
7-5 Oakland
5-7 Kansas City
4-8 Denver

The Chargers complete the sweep of the Raiders and are now two clear of them for the division.  KC beats Denver to move back into third place here.

PLAYOFF PICTURE AFTER WEEK 13
NFC
#6 Philadelphia (8-4) at #3 Dallas (8-4)
#5 New Orleans (8-4) at #4 San Francisco (6-6)

t.b.d. vs. #2 Atlanta (9-3)
t.b.d. vs. #1 Green Bay (9-3)

In the mix:  Carolina (7-5), Chicago (7-5), N.Y. Giants (7-5), Arizona (5-7)

The big story of Week Thirteen is the emergence of the Atlanta Falcons as a real contender for a first-round bye.  The Packers are still the #1-seed, thanks to a win over Atlanta last week, but the Falcons have surpassed the Saints in the South and are a game up on the Cowboys and Eagles in the East, so they are #2.  The Cowboys still have the East tiebreaker (divisional record), so they are #3.  The Niners are obviously #4.  The Saints have a better conference record than the Eagles, so they are #5 and the Eagles #6.  Carolina and Chicago suffered bad losses this week and are now a game out of the last wild card.  Arizona, at 5-7, is only a game behind San Fran for the NFC Awful division title.

AFC
#6 Tennessee (7-5) at #3 New England (9-3)
#5 Baltimore (8-4) at #4 Cincinnati (8-4)

t.b.d. at #2 San Diego (9-3)
t.b.d. at #1 Indianapolis (10-2)

In the mix:  N.Y. Jets (7-5), Oakland (7-5), Houston (6-6), Pittsburgh (6-6)

In the AFC, the four division-leaders all win and all stay the same, but there is a huge shakeup amongst the wild card contenders.  The Ravens have cleared all other wild card hopefuls by a full game and are all alone at #5.  Then, there is a three-way tie for the last spot, and right now it would go to Tennessee on the strength of their Week One win over Oakland.  The Jets and Raiders, who have been in the playoff position all year are now on the outside, looking in.

Click here for Week Fourteen (available 9/9 at 7:00 pm).

Week Eleven was the first week since Week Three with a full slate of 16 games, so you know that we’re getting into the crucial part of this NFL season.  A fantastic slate of Week Twelve games should help separate the men from the boys.

Thursday, November 25 (Thanksgiving Day):
12:30 – New England (8-2) at DETROIT (3-7)
I have done this for a number of years now, and I always want to pick Dallas and Detroit on Thanksgiving because I think (a) it’s a big advantage to be at home on short weeks, in general, but I think it’s an even bigger advantage for these two because they play this game every year and should be accostomed to it.  The Lions never come through, but I still haven’t learned.  I’m going with the Lions because of exactly what I just said, coupled with the fact that the Pats are coming off of a brutal game with Indianapolis last week and are looking ahead to an AFC East showdown with the Jets next week.  This is a real “trap” game on the road on Thanksgiving.

4:15 – New Orleans (8-2) at DALLAS (7-3)
This is a fantastic Thanksgiving Day game!  It should be a lot of fun to root for the Saints after a great turkey dinner, but I like the Cowboys here because, as I said, above, I like Dallas and Detroit on Thanksgiving because they do it every year.

8:20 – CINCINNATI (6-4) at N.Y. Jets (7-3)
Now, unlike the two early games with the common home teams, I think that it might be a bad thing to be at home for the night game on Thanksgiving Day.  The Jets will be home with their families and then have to play a game that night.  The Bengals will be on just another road trip.  Plus, the Jets have one of their biggest games of the year next week against New England.  I like the Bengals on the road here.

Sunday, November 28:
1:00 – Jacksonville (4-6) at N.Y. GIANTS (5-5)
I really wanted to go with the Jags here, but I couldn’t pull the trigger.  The Giants have a bit of a trap game here with the Eagles last week and the Redskins next week, but my reverse bias is killing me here.  I’m terrified that if I really pick the Giants to lose at home to Jacksonville, my credibility will be shot, so in an effort to save face, I’ll take the G-men here.  I don’t really believe it, though.

1:00 – PITTSBURGH (5-5) at Buffalo (1-9)
The Steelers may really need this game, and it’s a good spot to be in because the Bills stink.  The weather may not be very cooperative, but the Steelers are no strangers to bad weather.

1:00 – Tennessee (6-4) at HOUSTON (5-5)
Time for the Texans to circle the wagons here with a home game against Tennessee that could mean their season.  Though Houston might be looking ahead with a short week coming up, I still like them to take care of business here against their division foes.

1:00 – MINNESOTA (4-6) at Washington (3-7)
The Vikings may be coming off an emotional game at home against the Packers, but they might also be staring at their season right here.  I think that they are just much more talented than the ‘Skins and should be able to go into FedEx and win.

1:00 – Philadelphia (7-3) at CHICAGO (6-4)
November in Soldier Field is not a good place for a team that throws the ball 65% of the time.  Especially not when coming off of a tough game against the Giants and staring at a short week–a Thursday game next week.  Throw in the fact that they have to face a rested Bears team that played on Thursday last week and this is a recipe for a bad loss in the Windy City.

1:00 – GREEN BAY (7-3) at Atlanta (8-2)
Man, the schedule gods are fair, aren’t they?  They completely crushed the Falcons last year with just atrocious circumstances and this year, they are rewarded with an incredibly favorable set of circumstances surrounding their schedule.  They get to face a Green Bay team that is coming off their biggest win of the year–at Minnesota–and they get them at home.  This is still a really tough game to predict, and I’m still going with Rodgers and the Packers here, but it’s very, very close and could easily go the other way.

1:00 – Tampa Bay (1-9) at BALTIMORE (6-4)
After merely surviving the brutal beginning of their schedule, the Ravens are getting a couple breaks here.

1:00 – CAROLINA (6-4) at Cleveland (2-8)
The Panthers are coming off of a nasty game against Baltimore when they go into Cleveland here in Week Twelve.  I’m not exactly sure why, but this strikes me as the type of game where the Browns could shock Carolina and put a real shot to their playoff hopes, but in the end, I have to believe that John Fox will get his guys ready to play here.

4:05 – Kansas City (4-6) at SEATTLE (1-9)
Seattle’s a tough place to play, even when the team is 1-9.  I think this might be the week where things start to click a little for Pete Carroll and the boys.  And, picking the Chiefs to lose on the road is not exactly going out on a limb.

4:05 – MIAMI (4-6) at Oakland (7-3)
This is probably going to be a huge game in Week Twelve, no matter how the beginning of the season plays out.  Miami should be, at least, in it, and Oakland could be making some noise, like predicted here.  But, either way, this is a really tough spot for the Raiders.  The Dolphins have 10 days to prepare for this on, while the Raiders are coming back from a road game in Pittsburgh.  Plus, the Raiders have division-leading San Diego next week, so they might be looking ahead a bit.  I like Sparano and the Dolphins to go into the Black Hole and steal one.

4:15 – St. Louis (1-9) at DENVER (3-7)
The Broncos are not good, and they are coming off of a Monday night game in San Diego.  But, I’m just not ready to pick the Rams to beat anybody on the road.

8:20 – San Diego (8-2) at INDIANAPOLIS (8-2)
Time for Peyton and company to flex their muscles in the AFC.  Coming off of a loss to the Pats, the Colts might really need and want this one, at home, to prove themselves the best of the conference again.  And, not that this game won’t have all their attention, but the Chargers do have a big divisional game with the Raiders next week, as well.  I like the Colts easy in this one.

Monday, November 29:
8:30 – San Francisco (6-4) at ARIZONA (3-7)
Not so fast on everyone’s belief in the 49ers.  Let’s remember who their quarterback is.  Monday night with the Packers on the schedule in six short days, this is definitely a game that this team could throw away.  I like the Cardinals in an expression of their professional pride here.

STANDINGS AFTER WEEK 12
NFC EAST
8-3 Dallas
7-4 Philadelphia
6-5 N.Y. Giants
3-8 Washington

I think we can stick a fork in the Deadskins now.  The Eagles suffer a huge loss in Chicago, while the Cowboys and Giants pick up really big wins.  It’s Dallas’s division to lose now, but they still have two games left with Philly, so that should tell the tale.

NFC NORTH
8-3 Green Bay
7-4 Chicago
5-6 Minnesota
4-7 Detroit

This division goes a very impressive 4-0 in Week Twelve, as the Packers get a huge win in Atlanta, the Vikings win in Washington, the Lions beat Dallas, and the Bears beat Philly.  That’s an incredible week for the North.

NFC SOUTH
8-3 New Orleans
8-3 Atlanta
7-4 Carolina
1-10 Tampa Bay

The Falcons fail to take advantage of the Saints loss on Thanksgiving, as they lose on Sunday.  The Panthers get another big win on the road at Cleveland.

NFC WEST
6-5 San Francisco
4-7 Arizona
2-9 Seattle
1-10 St. Louis

Hold up the printing of those banners for just a second.  The Cardinals beat the Niners on Monday night to insert the tiniest bit of drama back into the West.

AFC EAST
8-3 New England
7-4 N.Y. Jets
5-6 Miami
1-10 Buffalo

The Pats and Jets both lose on Thanksgiving, in approach of their big showdown in Week Thirteen.  The Dolphins win again to stay in the discussion.

AFC NORTH
7-4 Baltimore
7-4 Cincinnati
6-5 Pittsburgh
2-9 Cleveland

The big three all win again, as this division is going to be nasty down the stretch.  The Browns barely lose at home to Carolina for their 9th consecutive defeat.

AFC SOUTH
9-2 Indianapolis
6-5 Houston
6-5 Tennessee
4-7 Jacksonville

The Texans get a gigantic win at home against Tennessee.  The Colts beat the Chargers to reiterate the fact that they are the AFC’s team to beat.

AFC WEST
8-3 San Diego
7-4 Oakland
4-7 Denver
4-7 Kansas City

Only the Broncos win this week.  The big losers were the Raiders, who lost at home to Miami in a game that could have tied them with San Diego heading into their big game against each other next week.

PLAYOFF PICTURE AFTER WEEK 12
NFC
#6 Carolina (7-4) at #3 New Orleans (8-3)
#5 Atlanta (8-3) at #4 San Francisco (6-5)

t.b.d. vs. #2 Dallas (8-3)
t.b.d. vs. #1 Green Bay (8-3)

In the mix:  Chicago (7-4), Philadelphia (7-4), N.Y. Giants (6-5)

Some major shuffling here in the NFC in Week Twelve.  The Packers are now the #1 seeds, thanks to their Week Nine win over Dallas.  The Cowboys are the #2 seed thanks to their win this week over New Orleans.  The Saints, therefore, have fallen out of bye position into the #3-spot.  Like we said last week, get used to the Falcons-49ers in the 4-5 game, but the #6-spot has been hotly contested and has a new face this week–the Panthers.  Carolina won the three-way tie between them, Chicago, and Philly, thanks to the Bears win over the Eagles this week, and Carolina’s win over the Bears in Week Five.

AFC
#6 Oakland (7-4) at #3 New England (8-3)
#5 N.Y. Jets (7-4) at #4 Cincinnati (7-4)

t.b.d. at #2 San Diego (8-3)
t.b.d. at #1 Indianapolis (9-2)

In the mix:  Baltimore (7-4), Houston (6-5), Pittsburgh (6-5), Tennessee (6-5)

Just like the NFC, it looks like there are three elite teams, and one of them is going to be left out of the bye sweepstakes.  This week, it is New England at #3, thanks to their loss to San Diego last week.  The Colts, with their 9-2 record, have regained the top spot.  The Bengals are holding steady at #4.  The Jets are still #5, but this time it’s on the backs of their Week One win over Baltimore.  The Ravens miss out of the playoffs because of that loss.  The Raiders are the beneficiaries, slipping into that #6-spot.

Click here for Week Thirteen (available 9/9 at 11:00 am).