The Ryan Howard Contract

Posted on July 5, 2012 by bry

One of our most dedicated “BSBelievers,” has been asking for quite some time now for a post about Mr. Howard, and more specifically, the big guy’s contract.  This post is probably going to make every elitist “Sabermaterician” stop reading this site completely, which will, in and of itself, make every minute I spend on it well worth it. 

(For the record – and this will be a full post one day – I have NO problem whatsoever with progressive, innovative, and creative statistical evaluation.  In fact, that is what I do for a living – though, unfortunately, not with baseball statistics.  What I do have a problem with is the condescending and utter dismissal of anything “traditional.”  Are RBIs “overrated” as a statistical measure by the general public?  Absolutely!  Are they a completely meaningless statistic that are only ackowledged by fans that are either (a) uneducated in the superior world of Sabermetrics or (b) simple fans incapable of comprehending more complicated statistics and just want to “watch the game?”  Absolutely not!  Okay, done with that rant…for now.)

So, back to Ryan Howard and his contract.  As an homage to Waters, the guy who spawned this column, I’ll use actual direct quotes from him as the leadins to the main points of this argument.

“If you ask me, he is worth every penny.  I’ll even be the first in line on Dollar Dog Night to buy 20 million hot dogs.”
One thing that I think all these critics of the big contracts completely miss is that there is a premium (and a significant one, at that) on the best.  Call it an “elite tax” or something like that.  But, the point is that there are all these people ripping contract signings like Howard, Papelbon, Cain, Tulowitzki, Cabrera, Mauer, etc., with the same, tired arguments.  They say things like “looking at their statistical worth, there is no way any of these guys can live up to those deals.”  And, then they go further – even at his best (2006), Ryan Howard only gave the Phillies FIVE wins more than a replacement player (WAR).  So, at $25 million, even the best Ryan Howard would cost the Phils $5 mil/win.”  And, then they go on to rattle all the “cost-effective” players that they could buy for $25 million, add up their WARs and say how ridiculous the contract is.  But, what they don’t realize is that even the most cost-conscious “good” teams are entirely populated with the Ben Zobrists of the world.  Even those Tampa Bay Rays have big-dollar guys like Evan Longoria and James Shields.  And, the only reason that their payroll isn’t $120 million is because all those young pitchers haven’t hit free agency yet.

In summary, it’s pretty simple.  To be an elite team, you need elite players – period.  And, to get elite players, you have to pay prices that may seem exorbitant (and stupid), when you try to compare them, empirically, to the rest of the field.  But, that is the “elite tax.”  Think about it – from an empirical standpoint, is a $2.5 million home really TEN TIMES BETTER than a $250,000 home?  Almost certainly not, but to get an “elite” home, you have to pay the “elite tax.”  The same goes for elite firstbasemen or closers or whatever…

“Chicks dig the long ball, and I dig Ryan Howard.”
So, if you go with me on that first point, the next obvious question is – well, is Ryan Howard “elite?”  And, honestly, that’s a pretty good question.  I hear the arguments against him being elite, and there are some cogent points to be made.  It is true that he has declined in just about every offensive category (except plate discipline) each year since his monster 58-HR season.  But, what I do find laughable is how people are, all of a sudden, talking about this guy like he’s somewhere in the “mediocre” range.  Are you kidding me?  He had 33 HRs and 30 Ds last year in a “down year.”  Say what you will about award voting, but the dude still finished TENTH in the NL MVP voting.  He was, pretty much without question, the best offensive player on a team that won 102 games – and, again, it was a down year for him.  So, to say that this guy isn’t The Best firstbaseman in the league is one thing, but to say that he’s not still an elite player – let’s take a cold look at the stats and not think about the nationally overexposed, ruthlessly overcriticized player.  Let’s stop and think for ourselves on this one, people, instead of lazily going with the prevailing, national opinion or on the SportsCenter highlights of all of his strikeouts.

One more thing on this.  I heard so many people say, “Why did they extend Howard when they did when they could have just waited and seen what else was out there for that price?”  Again, a valid point, at the time, but now with the advantage of hindsight, let’s take a look.  The number one argument I heard for this (including from some of the baseball writers I respect the most) was “Why spend all this money on Ryan Howard, when you can probably get an emerging Joey Votto for half that?”  (At the time, Votto hadn’t really broken out yet…).  Well, by the time Votto was due to hit free agency, what happened?  Well, let’s just say that Joey Votto is now on the books for $25 million/year through…wait for it…2024!  Sorry, the Reds have a team option in 2024, so they may only have to pay him through 2023…6 years after Howard’s expires…at $25m/year.  So, how would the “wait for Votto’s free agency” plan have worked?  Okay, but Votto is probably the best player in the game right now.  That’s true, so then what about Prince Fielder?  He’s a “pudgy” firstbaseman who just signed a contract that pays his $24 million/year through 2020.  (Oh, and unlike Howard, Fielder is NOT slimming down and vastly improving his defense in his offseasons.)  Okay, but Fielder is only 28.  That’s true, but what about Albert Pujols?  Pujols, who is the same age as Howard (with a MUCH scarier injury history), is due to receive $30 million in 2021!

The point is that Ryan Howard is one of the game’s best power hitters.  And, elite power hitters are (a) very expensive and (b) absolutely essential – which is why even teams like the Reds and Tigers (not exactly historically big spenders) are willing to shell out mega-bucks for these guys.  So, to all those people who say that Howard is too big to last, I give you the much larger Fielder, who has 4 more years on his deal.  To those who say that Howard is too old to get that extension, I give you Pujols, who is the same age and has a contract of 4 additional years at a higher salary.  To the ultimately stubborn of you who say that the defensive value (or lack thereof) of first base isn’t worth these massive contracts, I give you Votto, who is due upwards of $25 million/year for the next 14 years!  Even I didn’t defend the deal, at the time, but with each 1B signing that has occurred since, the decision looks less and less rash and may even be bordering on “prudent,” though even I am not quite there yet.

“While I, personally, believe math is much more important than chemistry in education, as well as baseball, you can’t deny how much better this Phillies team is with Howard in the lineup.”
Another great point at which the Saber-elitists would scoff (if they were tormenting themselves by still reading this “traditional” and “simple” piece).  Baseball is a different sport than just about any other when it comes to dealing with “the moment.”  In most other sports, the more you “want to,” the better you will be.  If you are really fired up and impassioned in a football game, you probably boost your chances to go out there and rip someone’s head off.  Same for basketball.  But, in baseball, because of the patience and precision required (and the aggression that is NOT required) a lot of times, the more you “want to,” the harder the sport becomes.  Well, one of the biggest problems that appears to be haunting the 2012 Phillies offense is entwined in this phenomenon.  Without Utley and Howard in the lineup, everyone feels like they need to do more, and therefore, usually do less (Chooch is an obvious exception to this, but I think he is just really good at controlling this emotion).  Hunter Pence is the prime example.  He’s having a great year, by the numbers, but in run-scoring opportunities, he’s been awful.  Same might go for the uncharacteristically testy, Shane Victorino, and even the steady veterans like Polanco or Rollins.  The big guy has been in the middle of this lineup since he was brought up, and this team has done nothing but win since he was brought up.  He’s ready for the pressure.  He’s accustomed to being “the guy” and everyone else is more comfortable with him as “the guy,” as well.  This lineup just works with him in it.  Now, put a price on that…if you can.

In summary, I, for one, enjoy laughing at the laziness of the national media (and some local media) talking about how overpaid Ryan Howard is or how stupid the Phillies were for extending him.  The fact of the matter is that this team is INFINITELY better with The Big Piece in the middle of the lineup.  So, sit on the soapbox all you want and tell me that Ryan Howard’s $20 million dollars could be better spent on TWO Aubrey Huffs or THREE Adam Linds or THREE James Loneys.  I just want the guy back in that lineup.

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Phillies Mid-Season Report Card

Posted on June 30, 2012 by Doogan

As we hit the halfway mark of the Phillies 2012 season and take a look back to hand out grades, it’s clear that this has been a season of transition.  But it’s not a transition in the traditional sense for a pro sports team.  There weren’t major roster changes and there still might not be going forward.

The transition is more in how the Phillies are perceived, by the fans, the front office, and probably the players themselves.  When you win five straight division titles, you have a well-earned confidence, whether you’re a fan or a player putting on the uniform every day.  Now, we still can’t say that the Phils have lost the right to that confidence, but it’s clear that the NL East will be a dogfight this year, and most likely for years to come.

Last year at this time, the Phillies had the best record in baseball.  Still, not surprisingly, there was a fair amount of angst surrounding the team.  Fans were coming to grips with the fact that Chase Utley and Ryan Howard may never be the dominating hitters they once were.  Well, in 2012, fans have had to face life without Utley or Howard at all.  It hasn’t been pretty.

Utley made his long-awaited season debut last night.  Just having him in the lineup, regardless of what he may produce, was a very welcome sight.  Suddenly, with Utley in the 3 spot, the team had Shane Victorino hitting 6th and Ty Wigginton hitting 7th.  It hasn’t been unusual this year to see Wigginton hitting clean-up.  Suddenly, this looked like a major-league lineup again.  When Utley crushed a curveball over the right field fence in his first at-bat of the season, it was one of the season’s best moments so far.

But it didn’t take long for reality to come crashing down once again, as the Pirates stormed back to score 11 runs and win that game.  Hard to believe, but here in late June the Phillies are on the verge of being out of the playoff race.  But the key phrase in the previous sentence may be “on the verge.”  They’re not dead yet, and more reinforcements (Halladay and Howard) are on the way.

On to the grades….

Catcher, Carlos Ruiz (56), Brian Schneider (20):  Just when it seems the Legend of Chooch can’t grow any more, he continues to go out and top himself.  It’s hard to believe that in 2008, Ruiz hit .219 with 4 HR.  He was basically the one guy in that lineup that couldn’t hit.  For much of this season, he’s been the one guy the offense can rely on.  Leading the league in hitting and already a career high in home runs, Ruiz would be a legitimate MVP candidate if the team had a winning record.  When you combine the offensive numbers with the pitch-calling and defensive abilities, he is incredibly valuable to this team.  He may end up being the team’s lone All-Star (Hamels and Papelbon have a shot, as well).  Schneider has been a typical backup catcher this year, with a couple timely hits.  He’s out for the next few weeks with an ankle injury, though.

Grade: A

First Base, Ty Wigginton (35), John Mayberry (19), Laynce Nix (10), Hector Luna (8):  Wigginton has been pretty much exactly what you’d expect him to be, which is a useful player that has no business being an everyday first baseman.  Mayberry, who came into Spring Training as the favorite to win the left field job, has been a disappointment, though he’s picked up his production in the last couple of weeks.  Still, he’s 28 years old now.  There’s no reason to expect him to be anything other than a bench contributor going forward.  The injury to Nix was an underrated one, as he was really hitting well in April, though in only 50 ABs.  Luna’s been solid in limited play, but you’d think he’ll be gone when Howard returns (hopefully in just a couple weeks).

Grade: C-

Second Base, Freddy Galvis (45), Michael Martinez (13), Mike Fontenot (9), Pete Orr (9):  Offensive production from this position has been nearly non-existent, but that doesn’t mean it’s been all bad news.  Yes, Galvis suffered a significant injury, tested positive for PEDs, and hit .226, but his defensive play was one of the positive stories in the season’s first two months.  If the Phils can’t find a place for him over the next couple of years (that’s a whole other discussion that could possibly involve a position change for Utley), then Galvis could be a valuable trade chip.  He showed just enough offensively to probably convince teams that he could be an everyday SS, and those aren’t easy to find.  Martinez is back in AAA after not hitting a lick and Fontenot stole his roster spot by hitting .344 over 61 ABs so far.  Some guy named Utley got a shot at the 2B job last night and went 3-4 with a homer, so that could be promising.

Grade: B-

Third Base, Placido Polanco (55), Wigginton (17):  Let me first say that I love having Polanco on my team for all the reasons that you often hear about, not the least of which is his incredibly sure-handed, Gold Glove defense.  But I’ve never been convinced that he was the right fit for this team at third base.  Considering the drop in production, almost across the board, from this lineup, two home runs at the halfway mark for your starting third baseman is just not good enough.  The good news for the rest of 2012 is that Placido is trending upward.  His slugging percentage has gone from .292 in April, to .384 in May, to .429 in June.  He’s hitting .282 on the year.  He’s been a solid player for this team, just not one that gives power from the third base spot like they need.

Grade: C

Shortstop, Jimmy Rollins (72):  Rollins was better in May than April, but who could’ve predicted the monster June he’s put up?  It’s been his best single month in five years, going back to 2007 when he just so happened to have won the league MVP award.  With still three games to play in the month as I write this, Rollins has 18 extra base hits (9 doubles, 3 triples, 6 homers) in 108 June ABs.  After slugging about .300 in April/May, he’s slugging .630 in June.  He probably can’t keep that up much longer, but that new contract is looking a lot less scary now than it was a month ago.

Grade: C+

Left Field, Juan Pierre (50), Mayberry (21):  Even coming out of Spring Training, few could’ve expected that Pierre would basically end up as the starting left fielder for this team, but he’s earned it.  He’s getting on-base (hitting .315, .352 OBP) and stealing bags when he gets there (17 puts him in the top 10 of the league).  Yes, he’s a liability in the field and the epitome of a slap hitter, but he’s filled a void in the lineup that would’ve been hard to fill.  As mentioned above, Mayberry’s been poor at the plate, but his defense in left has been great.

Grade: B

Center Field, Shane Victorino (74):  If this is the last month of Victorino’s time as a Phillie, we’ll remember him fondly.  But with trade speculation swirling around him, he’s posted the worst offensive numbers of his career so far (.251 AVG/.323 OBP/.390 SLG).  He’s always been better from the right side of the plate, but this year the difference has been huge.  His average and OBP are 100 points higher right-handed, and he’s slugging .620 righty vs. .318 lefty.  When you can’t hit right-handed pitching, that’s what we call a problem.  It seems unlikely that he’ll be dealt next month, but maybe equally unlikely that he’ll be brought back when his contract expires after the season.  On the positive (and surprising) side, he’s on pace for a career high in stolen bases, as he’s already matched last year’s total of 19.

Grade: C-

Right Field, Hunter Pence (75):  A look at Pence’s numbers show a guy that’s been solidly productive and could even make a push for an All-Star spot if he were to go on a hot streak in the next week before rosters are chosen.  He’s hitting .275 and on pace for 26 homers and 88 RBI.  But those numbers don’t tell the whole story.  For one, with runners in scoring position he’s hitting .202 and slugging .340.  Also, for a guy as athletically-gifted as he is, he’s been a debacle in right field.  His read on balls and his decision-making on when to dive for balls or let them drop has been horrendous, and he’s given up a lot of runs with those mistakes.  He may be a high-energy, high-effort guy with a lot of natural ability, but he’s still managed to disappoint the Phillie faithful so far this year.

Grade: C-

Note: Pence has homered in both games since the above was written, at least putting himself in the conversation for an All-Star spot.

Starting Rotation:

A rotation that’s supposed to have three aces has really only had one in the season’s first half: free agent-to-be Cole Hamels.  The veteran lefty is on pace for his first 20 win season, he ranks in the top 10 in the NL in innings, WHIP, and strike outs, to go along with a stellar 3.03 ERA.  There’s a very slim chance he’ll be traded next month, but most likely he will become the story of the offseason for the franchise when he goes into free agency.

And what of the other two aces?  Very much has been made of Cliff Lee‘s winless first half, but it’s obviously taken a combination of poor run support and shaky performance by Cliff.  Looking past that 0 win total, you see that Lee has declined as the season’s gone on, for whatever reason.  A strong start led into a middling May and then a struggling June, where he’s posted a 5.27 ERA.  There’s little reason to think it’s anything more than a blip on the radar and that his numbers at year’s end will be pretty outstanding.

Then there’s the Ace of Aces, Roy Halladay, who seemed to have been fighting through some sort of injury for a couple months before hitting the DL with a shoulder problem.  He still wasn’t bad before the injury, but very far from his normal self.

Vance Worley has avoided the sophomore slump (2.92 ERA), but he needs to walk less batters before that starts to really hurt him.  Joe Blanton‘s been Worley’s opposite, in some ways.  He’s walked only 13 hitters in 98 innings, which is downright Halladay-esque.  Unfortunately, he’s also surrendered 18 home runs in those 98 innings, the most in the NL, which goes a long way toward accounting for his 4.87 ERA.

Kyle Kendrick has mostly struggled through 12 starts, with a 2-8 record and 5.35 ERA.

Grade: C+

Bullpen:

Jonathan Papelbon has been as advertised, converting 18 of 19 save opportunities on the year, and generally conveying a lot of confidence to the team and fans alike when he’s handed the ball with late lead.

The rest of the bullpen?  It’s been one disaster and one failed veteran and one overwhelmed rookie after another.  Michael Stutes and Jose Contreras might be the lucky ones, because they went down for the year to injuries before they had a chance to fully suck.

The one veteran (besides Papelbon) brought into the team was Chad Qualls, who was DFA’d off the roster a couple days ago.  Would-be 8th inning set-up man (and still in that role for the time being, unfortunately) Antonio Bastardo hasn’t been able to hit the broad side of a barn, and has lost velocity of his fastball.  He’s walked 14 in 26 innings (more than Blanton has in 98 innings).

Aside from Pap, Bastardo, and Qualls, it’s been basically all AAA guys.  They’ve had varying degrees of success, ranging from mediocre (Michael Schwimer, Raul Valdes) to really bad (Joe Savery, B.J. Rosenberg, Brian Sanches).  The one guy of note is Jake Diekman, who’s had control problems even worse than Bastardo, but has also shown the potential to be a shutdown lefty out of the ‘pen in the future.  His high-90’s fastball, biting slider, and sweeping delivery make him very hard to hit.  But when you walk 10 in 15 innings like he has, it doesn’t take many hits to do damage.

Grade: D- (To be fair to these guys, this grade is more due to Ruben Amaro than the pitchers.  It’s hard to fault any of these guys except Qualls.  There’s a reason so many of them are 26 and making their ML debuts)

Overall Team Grade:

To paraphrase Dave Chappelle: what can be said about this first-half of the Phillies season that hasn’t already been said about Afghanistan.  It’s been a disaster.  From Howard’s Achilles at the end of last year, to Utley’s continued knee problems, to Doc missing an extended period, to the bullpen meltdowns, it’s difficult to imagine things going much worse than they have.

Grade: D

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Euro 2012

Posted on June 21, 2012 by bry

I know, I know, both Doogan and I have been incredibly busy this spring and have completely neglected our BSB duties.  It’s a good thing that there is nothing going on in Philadelphia sports right now…  Wait, the baseball season has started already?!?  Oh, well, as Phillies fans, it’s never really interesting until the playoffs anyway because the NL East regular season is just a formality.  I’m sure that the Phightins are eight or nine games up on the rest of the field by now…

Anyway, back to reality.  I want to write a post on the Phils and one on a sport that nobody in this country really cares about, so, for the first post in several months, I have decided to let timing dictate the choice and I am going with the sport that nobody cares about.  Oops…

It is one of the greatest sporting events in the world, and the quarterfinals kick off in a couple of hours, so let me run down some observations from group play and thoughts going forward into the knockout round.  (DISCLAIMER: I don’t follow club soccer on any level, in any way, nor do I claim to be anything near an expert of the game, itself.  But I do LOVE international soccer, and have watched just about every minute of this tournament, so any “analysis” is simply that of a novice fan of the game, who becomes obsessed with the major tournaments.)

Group A

It seems to me, from the play in this tournament that the two best teams in Group A are the two teams that were left out of the knockout stage.  Russia looked like the best team in the Group from the opening day, when they dominated the eventual group winners, the Czech Republic.  And, Poland, the hosts, looked really good in 1-1 draws against Greece and Russia, before a tough 1-0 defeat to the Czechs on Saturday.  How it all ended up was that the Czech Republic won the group, with Greece (who pulled off a stunning 1-0 win over Russia on Saturday) coming through as the second qualifier.  Honestly, I don’t think any of the four of these teams would have a lot to say in the quarters, but the two qualifiers should be relatively easy marks for the superior teams that survived the “Group of Death,” Group B.

Group B

The “Group of Death” lived up to the pre-tournament hype.  All four teams in this group were ranked in the top 10 in the world, including two in the top 4 (and, this is the world, not just Europe).  The winner of the group, Germany, was one of the pre-tournament favorites to win the whole thing, and they certainly showed why.  They came through this brutal group with 3 wins and enter the quarterfinals on a mission.  The “next wave” of German stars seem to have arrived, as “tomorrow” in German soccer looks like it has become “today.”  The other survivor of this group, Portugal, was, at the same time, one of the more impressive and more disappointing teams in Group Play.  They showed all the talent in the world, particularly their incredibly fast scoring duo or Christiano Ronaldo and Nani, but they also showed glimmers of being that same Portugal team that never quite lives up to their on-paper talent.  That being said, they did survive this brutal group and should be a strong pick to go through to the semis.  The biggest disappoinment of the whole tournament was EASILY the bowing out of the Netherlands.  Ranked #4 in the world (and #3 in Europe) and coming off of their runners-up finish in the World Cup two years ago, the Dutch failed to earn a single point in three losses.  They haven’t been able to break through and win a major tournament recently, but they also haven’t failed to get to the knockout stage in about a decade of major tournaments.  It might be the start of a decline in Dutch soccer with their core guys (Arjen Robben, Wesley Sneijder, Robin Van Persie, and Dirk Kuyt) all hitting 30 years old by the 2014 World Cup.  And, finally, while they didn’t make it, you have to say that Denmark acquitted themselves very nicely in this tournament.  They opened this group with a stunning win over the Dutch and then played both the Portugese and Germans very tough.

Group C

As expected, the #1-ranked team in the world and defending Euro and World Cup champions, Spain, won Group C and enters the knockout round with a chance at putting a stamp of the claims that this is the best international soccer team of all-time.  With the Spanish the best of the group and Ireland, who was simply outclassed all tournament, as the clear bottom-dwellers, it really came down to a couple gritty performances by perennial powerhouse, Italy, as the Azzurri pulled out 1-1 draws with Spain and Croatia in their first two games, before beating the Irish.  Croatia, then needed to draw with the Spanish on the last day of group play, which they couldn’t, and Italy gets to advance to the quarters.  This group probably played out as expected, but I think that those teams in Group D were probably hoping for the always tough Italians to bow out before the elimination stage.

Group D

A pretty fascinating, if not all that consequential, group finished up on Tuesday with no big surprise as to who got through, but a bit of a surprise as to the order in which they came through.  With the winner of this group getting to avoid Spain in the quarters, it is a bit head-scratching for France not to be able to at least pull off a draw with a very good, but already eliminated Sweden.  France qualified, but with the loss to the Swedes, they had to settle for the second spot from Group D and a date with the Spanish.  The winners of the group – England – who played a brutally dull 1-1 draw with France and then beat Sweden in a sloppy game, and then beat the hosts, Ukraine thanks, in part, to a very controversial non-goal that looked to cross the line.  Now, the two rivals across the Channel will have to take on the two powerhouse qualifiers from Group C in an interesting duo of quarterfinal matchups.

Quarterfinal Predictions

Quarterfinal #1:  Czech Republic vs. Portugal – Thursday, June 21st
I was wholly unimpressed by the Czechs, despite winning their group, and, though the Portugese showed glimpses of their patented underachievement, but also showed why that even a quarterfinal defeat would be considered “underachieving,” because they are that talented.  Fortunately, for them, I think they got a really soft quarterfinal draw and should get through.
THE PICK:  PORTUGAL…easily

Quarterfinal #2:  Germany vs. Greece – Friday, June 22nd
The Germans looked as good as anyone in group play and draw probably the weakest-looking knockout round qualifier, the Greeks.  The Germans are good and patient enough to break through the plodding, suffocating, defensive style of Greece to get on the board, and they are disciplined enough on the back line to adequately defend the excellent set pieces that Greece throws at you.  Greece showed everyone, in 2004, that this style can work, but they got a pretty bad matchup here in 2012.
THE PICK:  GERMANY…though the Greek style is scary for anyone

Quarterfinal #3:  Spain vs. France – Saturday, June 23rd
I thought the French were clearly the best team in Group D, but then they went out and laid an egg against Sweden and found themselves as the #2 team through, forcing a match with the defending European and World champions.  Spain did have a tough draw with Italy, but took care of business against Ireland and beat a tough Croatia team.  And, while the pressure of being the first team to win three straight major tournaments is probably heavy, these guys seem poised to deal with it.  France is a bit of a tough draw for the Spanish, who would probably strongly prefer to have played England in this spot.  If there is going to be a big upset in the quarters, this might be the one, but, in the end, I can’t go against the beautiful game of the Spaniards.
THE PICK:  SPAIN…in a tough one

Quarterfinal #4:  England vs. Italy – Sunday, June 24th
Maybe I don’t have enough respect for the English, but they really showed me very little in group play, despite winning their group.  While Italy may not be the big, bad Azzurri that we are used to seeing, let’s not dismiss their gutty draw against Spain in this tournament, and then avoiding the letdown in a draw with a solid Croatian team.  I’m not sure if England has the discipline to go 90 minutes mistake-free against a veteran team that will punish you for little mistakes.  Oh, and the goalkeeping has to be a HUGE advantage for the Italians.
THE PICK:  ITALY…in a minor upset

Semifinal Predictions

Okay, based on my picks above, the semifinalists would be Portugal, Germany, Spain, and Italy.

Semifinal #1:  Portugal vs. Spain – Wednesday, June 27th
This is where it most likely ends for the Portugese – and, of all place, to their arch-enemy.  They will finally run into a team that actually has more talent than they do and are clearly more disciplined.  This will be quite a heated grudge match, but I like the Spaniards to keep their heads about them and get on through
THE PICK:  SPAIN…not necessarily with ease, but never to feel threatened

Semifinal #2:  Germany vs. Italy – Thursday, June 28th
As feisty and gritty as the Italians might be, Germany is simply the better team.  After a game with Greece, the Germans will now have to face an Italian team that is also scary for any team that is favored against them.  I think that the bracket opens up nicely for the Germans to get to the finals, but both Greece and Italy, with their defensive, counter-attacking styles, are land mines for teams with championship aspirations.  Both games will seriously test the Germans poise and inexperience, but, from what I’ve seen, they should be able to handle it.
THE PICK:  GERMANY…in another scary one

Championship Prediction

Championship:  Spain vs. Germany – Sunday, July 1st
The Dream Matchup!  Honestly, no matter what happens in the rest of the tournament, if we get this finals matchup, it will be amazing.  And, while I feel relatively good about all 6 of picks in the prior two rounds, I really don’t have much of a clue here.  I will certainly be rooting for Spain because of the beauty with which they play the game, but the Germans look really, really good.
THE PICK:  GERMANY…in essentially a toss-up

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2011 MLB Season Preview: BSB-Style

Posted on April 2, 2012 by bry

(UPDATE:  BSB is about to begin the 2012 MLB Preview, so we figured it would be a good time to look back at the 2011 Preview in anticipation.  The individual previews were posted on 3/28.  The updates (underlined) were made after the regular season ended.)

With the end of a fantastic college basketball season this year imminent, it is time for Broad Street Believers to officially turn most of its attention squarely on the 2011 MLB season.  And, to kick off what might be a prolific season of baseball coverage, we will run our annual tradition of previewing the MLB season in a unique way you won’t find anywhere else.  We, here at BSB, like to have a little fun with everything and turn as many things as we can into competitions.  And, we found a way to preview various seasons in a competitive manner.  Over the next couple of days, Doogan and I will be “analyzing” all 30 Major League teams by trying to predict who is going to get better, who is going to get worse, and how confident we are in those assessments.  This is the fourth year we have done this for baseball, and Bry has actually won all three – the first two very narrowly, and then last year’s by an 18-12 score.  (You can check out last year’s final recap here.)  So, if you are interested in our picks, check back as we will conduct this “draft” live, with updates, well, whenever we do them until we have picked all 30 teams.  Doogan picked first last year, so Bry will kick off 2011 with the #1 draft pick…

FINAL RESULTS: show final record, winner of the pick.

1. BRY – Seattle Mariners – OVER 61 wins:
Doogan, judging by the trouble I had with #1, this year might be the most difficult yet.  Usually, there are at least 2 or 3 that are obvious right off the bat, but I am not 100% confident with my very first pick.  That being said, I cannot imagine how the Mariners will be worse than they were last year.  They do have talent and the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner, who is only getting better.  I don’t think they are anywhere near contenders, but they will not lose 100 games again.  Your move…

FINAL: 67-95
BRY leads 1-0
The M’s didn’t have a good year, by any stretch, but they did manage to avoid another 100-loss season and get Bry the first point.

2. DOOGAN – San Diego Padres – UNDER 90 wins:
Well, let’s see, nobody could figure out how the Padres won 90 games last year, and they traded away their only legitimate offensive threat, Adrian Gonzalez, in the offseason.  They also lost Jon Garland, who gave them a very solid season.  They could very easily lose 90 games this time around.

FINAL: 71-91
DOOGAN ties it up 1-1
Bry’s first pick was a bit of a sweat, but Doogan’s was drama-free, as the Pads were 19 games worse in 2011 than 2010.

3. DOOGAN – Milwaukee Brewers – OVER 77 wins:
Zach Greinke’s injury may give a moment’s pause here, but with him joining Yovani Gallardo, the also newly-acquired Shaun Marcum, and the still-steady Randy Wolf, the Brewers have one of the better rotations in the game.  The offense still has Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, and Rickie Weeks, and Takashi Saito has joined the pen.  In a weak division, they should be able to push for 90 wins.

FINAL: 96-66
DOOGAN leads 2-1
If his first two picks are any indication, Doogan is on point here, as the Brew Crew also wins the point for him with 19 games to spare.

4. BRY – Tampa Bay Rays – UNDER 96 wins:
I strongly considered San Diego with #1, so nice pick there.  I am going to go with Tampa here because 96 wins is a lot for anyone in any division, but this team did lose, arguably, its best offensive player, and most of its bullpen, and they still play in the AL East.  All that being said, I still think this is a very, very good team that could seriously contend because of their incredible pitching, but 96 wins is just too much.

FINAL: 91-71
BRY ties it up 2-2
The Rays made the playoffs with 91 wins, but it wasn’t enough to cost Bry the point.  Still “on serve” after 4 picks.

5. DOOGAN – Oakland A’s – OVER 81 wins:
They have a very promising young rotation with Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, and Dallas Braden, and they took a flier on their former young star, Rich Harden, who has maybe one more shot to get his career back on track.  They’ve made a couple nice additions to the bullpen with Brian Fuentes and Grant Balfour joining young closer Andrew Bailey.  They may still struggle to score runs, but newcomers Hideki Matsui, David DeJesus, and Josh Willingham will certainly help.  They can definitely contend in the underwhelming AL West and win 90 games.

FINAL: 74-88 – WRONG
BRY takes the lead 3-2
The first “break” of the game goes to Bry, as Doogan thought the A’s would be above .500.

6. BRY – Pittsburgh Pirates – OVER 57 wins:
If I had to bet on a team to be the worst in baseball, I would absolutely bet on the Pirates.  But, I also find it really hard to believe that in a National League that is very short on great teams will give us any team that loses 105 games again.  Again, if anyone can do it, it would be the Pirates because they have been terrible for so long and haven’t really added anything to make us think they won’t, but young’ins like Andrew McCutcheon and Pedro Alvarez have to improve a little bit, right?  Maybe?

FINAL: 72-90
BRY leads 4-2
This point was probably won in July, as the Pirates improved by 15 games in 2011.

7. DOOGAN – New York Mets – UNDER 79 wins:
You definitely stole my next pick with there with the Buccos, and that’s the end of the gimmes, in my mind.  Considering the new regime in Queens and the whole Madoff situation with the owners, I really see this season being the end of an era and the Mets trading away guys like Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes in July.  I mean, by that point they’ll be, what, 20 games behind the Phils?

FINAL: 77-85
DOOGAN trails 4-3
In a point that was more dramatic than it may seem, it remains difficult to believe that the 2011 Mets won 77 games, but they did – it just wasn’t enough to cost Doogan the point.

8. BRY – New York Yankees – UNDER 95 wins:
Since we’re in the Big Apple, let’s just head over to the other Borough and pick against them too, while we’re at it.  I know that this team always wins and almost assuredly will end the season with at least one or two more major pieces than they started it with, but I really can’t find 95 wins on this roster – particularly, this pitching staff.  With Andy Pettitte retiring, the Bombers are all of a sudden counting on A.J. Burnett as their #2 starter?  That’s incredibly scary.  Maybe Phil Hughes progresses even more, but still do they win 95 games when Freddy Garcia and Ivan Nova are starting 30-40% of their games?  Yes, in true Yankees fashion, they added the best closer on the market – Rafael Soriano – to be a handsomely paid setup man, but the rest of the bullpen is somewhat shaky, and there will be a time when Mariano is just too old to keep getting it done.  And, speaking of old – have you seen the left side of the infield?  All of a sudden two of the best players of my lifetime look like they’re ready to become the centerpieces of the “stories of my youth.”  I do think Robinson Cano is one of the best players in the game, but I don’t see 95 wins in the Bronx this year.

FINAL: 97-65 – WRONG
DOOGAN ties it up 4-4
Bry’s first misstep comes at #8 with the Yanks.  They actually got 2 games better in 2011, despite injury-riddled seasons from A-Rod and Jeter and a no-show from AJ Burnett.  Curtis Granderson is probably to blame for the improvement of the Bombers this year.

9. DOOGAN – Boston Red Sox – OVER 89 wins:
Well, if the Yanks and Rays are both going under, then those AL East wins have to go somewhere, and the Sox look to be in a great position to take them.  They had a ton of injuries last year, and I see improved seasons coming from Josh Beckett and John Lackey behind Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz in the rotation.  And I haven’t even mentioned the two massive additions to the line-up, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford.  Add in a couple bullpen reinforcements in Bobby Jenks and Dennys Reyes, and this is team is the clear favorite to win the best division in baseball.  That means 96-97 wins.

FINAL: 90-72
DOOGAN takes the lead 5-4
Most people will remember the Red Sox losing game #162 as a devastating loss, little does everyone realize that they didn’t need that 91st win.  Doogan had already hit his Over with their 90th win.  Much ado about nothing…

10. BRY – Baltimore Orioles – OVER 66 wins:
Ya, that was my next pick as well, but I’ll stay here in the AL East.  Trivia question:  If we split last year into two 81-game seasons, who would have won the AL East in that second season?  Answer:  The Baltimore Orioles.  That’s right, the Orioles had a better record than the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, and Blue Jays in the final 81 games.  Now, I am not at all implying they are contenders for the title this year, but I think they will be a lot better than the 96 losses they had last year.  They have Showalter for a full year, and I actually kind of like the additions of J.J. Hardy, Mark Reynolds, Derrek Lee, and Vlad Guerrero.  Plus, guys like Matt Wieters and Adam Jones are a year older, and guys in the rotation like Brian Matusz, Brad Bergesen, and Jake Arrieta have another year under their belts.

FINAL: 69-93
BRY ties it up 5-5
While the O’s may not have “taken the next step” in 2011, they did improve by 3 games – which is enough to get Bry the point here at #10.

11. DOOGAN – Detroit Tigers – OVER 81 wins:
This is a slightly scary pick because there are a lot of “ifs” that need to turn out on the positive side, but there’s a lot of talent on this roster.  The most important “if”: IF Miguel Cabrera can keep himself alive and out of trouble, he should team with Victor Martinez in the middle of a solid line-up that also features young outfielders Austin Jackson, Ryan Raburn, and Brennan Boesch.  I think Rick Porcello will bounce back with a solid year, joining ace Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer at the front of the rotation.  And Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit will form a dependable back-end of the bullpen.

FINAL: 95-67
DOOGAN takes the lead 6-5
A stress-free point for Doogan at #11, as the Tigers were 14 games better in 2011 than the 2010 version.

12. BRY – Toronto Blue Jays – UNDER 85 wins:
This might be odd to talk about the Blue Jays regressing because they seem to a team moving in the right direction, in a weird way, but I just don’t see 85 wins of talent on this roster, especially in the AL East.  They had a slew of career years offensively last year (Jose Bautista comes to mind), so even with the normal regression to the mean for these guys, you have to expect that they will not hit 250 home runs again or score close to 800 runs again.  Plus, as bad as a contract as Vernon Wells had and as great as it was for the future of the team to move him, his loss will be felt in the short-term.  I like the depth of their pitching staff, but it’s just a collection of decent #3’s.  Put me down as surprised if this team goes .500 and pretty sure they won’t hit 85 wins again.

FINAL: 81-81
BRY ties it up 6-6
A decent Blue Jays team was only good enough to go .500 in the brutal AL East, which means Bry takes the point and stays on serve.

13. DOOGAN – Arizona Diamondbacks – OVER 65 wins:
Not gonna lie, it took me a while to find a next pick.  In the end, I’m going with one of the lower numbers out there.  I don’t think this will be a good team.  They don’t really have any stars that can carry them, but I do think they have enough to get into the 70’s in wins.  Daniel Hudson, Ian Kennedy, Joe Saunders, and Armando Galarraga are guys that have gotten it done in the bigs for various lengths of time.  The “future stars” on offense that look like they’ll never quite make it (Chris Young, Stephen Drew, maybe even Justin Upton) are at least solidly productive.  The weak bullpen could be what really derails them, but 70 wins isn’t too much to ask for.

FINAL: 94-68
DOOGAN takes the lead 7-6
The second-best pick of the whole thing comes at #13, as Doogan wins this one by almost 30 wins – wow!

14. BRY – Minnesota Twins – UNDER 94 wins:
Ya, it’s getting real tough already.  Not sure how the rest of these picks are gonna go.  And, as evidence for the difficulty, I have to go against a team that always seems to overachieve.  But, 94 wins is a lot of wins.  I know that they played most of the second half without their second-best player in Justin Morneau.  I know that they played the whole season without their star closer, Joe Nathan.  And, I know that they won 94 games last year, despite all of that.  But, I just think that they may have overachieved a little too much last year.  I could easily see them at 90-92 this year and winning the division again, but I just think 94 is a big number.

FINAL: 63-99
BRY ties it up 7-7
The second-best pick is followed up by the best pick in this middle section of the draw, as the Twins were an ungodly 31 games worse than they were in 2010.

15. DOOGAN – Los Angeles Angels – OVER 80 wins:
The Angels have taken a bunch of steps back over the last couple years, but they still have two really important things going for them:  starting pitching and money.  Jered Weaver and Dan Haren are a great 1-2 combo at the front of the rotation, and Ervin Santana and Joel Pineiro are solid veterans.  The underwhelming offense is relying on three over-the-hill outfielders (Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu, and Vernon Wells) and the once-great bullpen has been largely gutted, but the starting pitching should help make them decent, and they have the money to add payroll mid-season and make a push in a winnable AL West.

FINAL: 86-76
DOOGAN takes the lead 8-7
These guys are good, as halfway through, there have only been 2 incorrect picks out of 15.  Doogan hits this one with 6 games to spare.

16. BRY – Kansas City Royals – OVER 67 wins:
I think I end up taking the Royals and the OVER every year, so why not get it over with now?  By almost all accounts, this team has the best farm system in all of baseball and it seems like many of these guys are just about ready to contribute on the ML level – at least by July or so.  I don’t think this team will compete this year – or even next – and they did lose their only real star in Zack Greinke in the offseason, but I can see this team getting real feisty in the second half and winning 35-40 games in the second half.  So, if they can just be not awful in the first half (which is no lock, by any means), then I think they’ll be hitting the almighty 70-win mark.  Then again, this may be really stupid, considering their rotation consists of Luke Hochevar, Jeff Francis, Kyle Davies, the immortal Bruce Chen, and a 5th starter-to-be-named-later.  Ugh…what did I just do?

FINAL: 71-91
BRY ties it up 8-8
The youthful Royals are going to be the trendy pick to win the Central for the next decade, but we’ll see if it ever happens.  Hey, they improved by FOUR whole games in 2011…Yankees watch out.

17. DOOGAN – Texas Rangers – UNDER 90 wins:
It’s hard not to like the direction this franchise is heading in, but I’ve already gone OVER on the A’s and Angels, so that would put the Rangers in a tough spot.  They also won’t get two months from a certain guy named Cliff Lee.  I feel like they’ll find a way to have a decent rotation, but C.J. Wilson as your Opening Day starter isn’t a great sign.  Adrian Beltre is a nice replacement for Vlad Guerrero in the line-up, but with him joining Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz, the team’s three best hitters are all injury-prone, which could certainly come back to haunt them. 

FINAL: 96-66 – WRONG
BRY takes the lead 9-8
The streak of 8 straight correct picks is finished, as Doogan gets burned by another great year in Arlington.

18. BRY – Colorado Rockies – OVER 83 wins:
I have been resoundingly critical of this Colorado team for a couple years now.  I could never really understand how they were any good at all with an aging Todd Helton and heavily struggling guys like Garret Atkins and Brad Hawpe in the lineup every day.  Plus, their leadoff hitter was Dexter Fowler, who almost never got on base.  But, I have come around on this team, particularly because of three guys (who are pretty obvious these days) – Ubaldo Jimenez, Troy Tulowitzki, and Carlos Gonzalez.  When you have a true #1 pitcher, an elite shortstop, and one of the best rising offensive stars in the game, you do not have all that much more building that needs to be done.  Plus, I like Jorge De La Rosa as a #2 and I think Huston Street is an underrated closer (when healthy).  I still don’t see this team as a pennant contender, but I can easily see them winning 85+ games in a mediocre division.

FINAL: 73-89 – WRONG
DOOGAN ties it up 9-9
Bry’s lead doesn’t last long, as he missed badly on the Rox in 2011.

19. DOOGAN – Houston Astros – UNDER 76 wins:
A mediocre rotation, a bad bullpen, and a line-up that really struggles to score.  Ladies and gentlemen, Ed Wade in action!  This team was lucky to win 76 last year.  They’ll be lucky to win 70 without any help from Mr. Roy Oswalt. 

FINAL: 56-106
DOOGAN takes the lead 10-9
Did they really lose 106 games???  Ouch…

20. BRY – Los Angeles Dodgers – OVER 80 wins:
Clayton Kershaw may be on the verge of being an elite starting pitcher.  If Chad Billingsley ever finds it again, he could be a solid #2; Ted Lilly is already a solid #3; and, you can do a lot worse than Hiroki Kuroda and Jon Garland as your #4-5.  Plus, the bullpen is still very good, anchored by closer Jonathan Broxton.  All of those parts add up to a really solid all-around pitching staff and when your pitching staff is solid, you have a really good chance to win more games than you lose.  And, it’s not like this offense is terrible.  Andre Ethier is not nearly as good as many people may think, but he’s solid.  Matt Kemp is not even close to as good as he probably should be, but he is immensely talented.  Rafael Furcal and James Loney are solid pieces.  This team is probably no better than a third-place team right now, but they could add a piece or two if they figure out their finances.  I wouldn’t be surprised with pretty much any result between 75 and 90, but I think the chances are better they’re over 80 than under it.

FINAL: 82-79
BRY ties it up 10-10
By the skin of his teeth, Bry avoids back-to-back misses, as the Dodgers and Matt Kemp managed a 2-win improvement in 2011.

21. DOOGAN – St. Louis Cardinals – UNDER 86 wins:
Argh, you definitely stole my next one with the Dodgers.  I hate betting against this Cardinal team, but losing Adam Wainwright for the season is a massive blow.  And I’m usually not one to buy into “distractions” affecting a team that much, but this Pujols contract situation is such a dark cloud hanging over this Cardinal season that its hard for me to see it not having a negative impact on just about everyone in the organization.  Also, isn’t about time this “Ryan Franklin as competent closer” phenomenon came to an end?

FINAL: 90-72 – WRONG
BRY takes the lead 11-10
This one burns…what I wouldn’t give for Doogan to have been right about this one.  Then again, at least he didn’t pick…

22 BRY – Philadelphia Phillies – UNDER 97 wins:
Okay, I’ve put this off long enough for six reasons:  (1) I have a hard time picking the Phillies and the Under, in general; (2) I’ve thought about picking them and the Under for the last couple years and I always talk myself into the Over and end up getting rewarded; (3) Roy Halladay; (4) Cliff Lee; (5) Cole Hamels; (6) Roy Oswalt.  It is hard to believe that the best pitching staff of all-time won’t win 97 games, but I’m a little worried.  Let’s do some math, by the dozen:  I think that even these 4 great pitchers will probably throw out 3-4 “off days” a year, so say that’s approximately a dozen losses from them.  Without Brad Lidge, I think that the bullpen could blow at least a dozen leads.  There will probably be 20-30 games with these starters lead tied.  If the Phils win about half of them, that’s another dozen losses.  A non-stud starter will get at least 30-40 starts, so say that’s another dozen losses, at least.  And, there will probably be another dozen losses when the offense just doesn’t do anything (especially without Utley) and Halladay loses 2-1 or 1-0.  So, that is, by my count, six dozen losses…or about 90 wins.  Honestly, I would definitely take the Over on 90, but I think I have go with the Under on 97.

FINAL: 102-60 – WRONG
DOOGAN ties it up 11-11
The best team in the history of the Philadelphia Phillies, and Bry went with the Under – he was unavailable for comment on this one…

23. DOOGAN – Chicago Cubs – OVER 75 wins:
I was gonna go Over on the Phils at some point.  Boo to you, Bry.  As for the Cubbies, it must make their fans sick to see some of these contracts.  This year they’re paying $19 mil. each to Soriano and Zambrano, $17 mil. to Aramis Ramirez, and $14 mil. to Kosuke Fukudome.  Anyway, it looks like they have a .500 team.  Zambrano, Dempster, and Matt Garza is a serviceable trio of starters and Kerry Wood returns to join Carlos Marmol at the back of the pen.  The offense definitely doesn’t thrill you but, again, not terrible.  111 years and counting for the North Siders.

FINAL: 71-91 – WRONG
BRY takes the lead 12-11
The Cubbies are in trouble, as a franchise.  A winnable division, a huge payroll, and 71 wins?  That’s, uh, not very good.  Bry takes the lead back, as the guys are starting to struggle here down the stretch.

24. BRY – Florida Marlins – OVER 80 wins:
Ya, I’m not a fan of my last pick, either, Doogan.  The good news is – if I had to pick one team that I think has the best chance to win the World Series, it would be the Phils because I think that 97 wins or not, they are going to the playoffs and once they get there, with that rotation – watch out.  Anyway, this paragraph isn’t supposed to be about the Phils.  It’s getting pretty tough here with these last couple, but I’ll go with the Fish and their youngsters to at least go .500.  When you have a top 5 starting pitcher and a top 5 shortstop, you should win a lot of games.  Plus, the rest of the rotation is decent and they always have good young talent on the way.

FINAL: 72-90 – WRONG
DOOGAN ties it up 12-12
The 4th straight incorrect pick gives us another tie here after 24 picks.  It’s hard to imagine that this Marlins team was a last-place team in 2011, but it’s true.

25. DOOGAN – Cincinnati Reds – UNDER 91 wins:
Even though, in a lot of ways, this is an up-and-coming team, they look more likely to take a step back this year.  Is Joey Votto really going to repeat as MVP?  Also, even though they have a bunch of decent arms in the rotation, none of them can be considered a sure thing, especially with two of them (Cueto and Bailey) starting the year on the DL.  Aroldis Chapman might turn into a beast in the pen, but they have a bunch of relievers that had really good years last year who could easily be very average this year.  The good news for them is that 87 wins could definitely take the division title again.

FINAL: 79-83
DOOGAN takes the lead 13-12
To get an easy point at #25 is always a welcome relief, but after 4 straight incorrect picks, this one feels pretty important for Doogan’s chances at winning the MLB Preview for the first time.

26. BRY – Chicago White Sox – OVER 88 wins:
The remaining picks are really, really tough, but the Ozzie Guillen/Ken Williams Era has been very underrated on the South Side, so I’ll go with the ChiSox.  This team is always competitive and they always seem to make a big move if they need it.  And, I think that they are arguably the best team in this decent division, which usually leads to 90+ wins.  I really like the Adam Dunn signing and the Paul Konerko re-signing.  And, even though Jake Peavy will start the season on the DL, if they can get anything close to the Peavy of old, this staff could be excellent with Mark Buerhle, John Danks, Gavin Floyd, and Edwin Jackson.  We could even see breakout performances from guys like Gordan Beckham or Alexei Ramirez.

FINAL: 79-83 – WRONG
DOOGAN leads 14-12
Yet another bad pick by Bry, as he is fading quickly down the stretch here – Doogan’s magic number is 2.

27. DOOGAN – San Francisco Giants – UNDER 92 wins:
As good as their starting pitching is, it’s pretty hard to see it getting better.  On the other hand, they’ll continue to struggle to score runs, and it’s easy to see Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell, and Andres Torres dropping their production level of last year.  They’re hoping rookie first baseman Brandon Belt will help with run production.  This also a brutal defensive team, with Burrell in left, 37-year-old Miguel Tejada at short, Pablo Sandoval at third, and Huff moving to right field to make room for Belt.  Throw in Brian Wilson starting the year on the DL, and I like the Under here.

FINAL: 86-76
DOOGAN leads 15-12 (clinches at least a tie)
A great call by Doogan here at #27 to pick against the defending champs has put him on the verge of the 2011 title.

28. BRY – Washington Nationals – OVER 69 wins:
I have put off this pick for a while now because, while I think they have to be getting better (right?), they really have no starting pitching.  And, we all know that Strasburg is out with an injury, and Jordan Zimmerman may not be ready for The Show quite yet.  But, they do have the most underrated player in the game (Ryan Zimmerman) and they added some guy named Jayson Werth.  I think they’re probably more likely to hit 65 than 75, but I still think that they’re probably around 72 or so, so I’ll take the Over – barely.

FINAL: 80-81
BRY trails 15-13
The champagne will have to stay “on ice,” as Bry cruises to an easy point here, with the Nats nearly playing .500 ball in 2011.

29. DOOGAN – Cleveland Indians – UNDER 69 wins:
I stayed away from this pick for so long because the Indians have a lot of guys that could either way: pretty good or really bad.  The offense has the potential to be average (that’s about it though), but the pitching has the potential to be epically bad (which they showed when the first two starters combined to give up 17 runs in the first two games of the year).  In a pretty tough division with three good teams to play 18 times each, it’s likely to be another long year in Cleveland.

FINAL: 80-82
BRY trails 15-14
Doogan misses another chance to clinch the title, as the Indians (despite playing about .300 baseball in the second half) had a good enough first half to nearly finish .500.

30. BRY – Atlanta Braves – UNDER 91 wins:
After taking the Phils and the Under, I had a feeling that Doogan would set me up here to be the ultimate “bad guy” with a Braves and Over pick.  But, in true stubborn fashion, I refuse.  Give me the Under.  I do like this Braves team, but I think that they are getting way too much love from the national pundits.  Their starting rotation is good, on paper, and very deep, but Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson are another year older.  Jair Jurrjens and Kris Medlin have never proven they can stay healthy for a full year, and Tommy Hanson, Brandon Beachy, and Mike Minor still have a lot more to prove in the bigs.  And, on offense, everyone is talking about how great this offense is and I just don’t get it.  This is the first four in their order:  Martin Prado, Nate McClouth, a 39-year old Chipper Jones, and Dan Uggla.  Is that the first four of a title contender?  No way.  Jason Hayward is a stud, but does that mean that Freddie Freeman is too?  Plus, they lost Billy Wagner and are now counting on a couple of really young relievers in Johnny Venters and Craig Kimbrel at the back of the ‘pen.  But, despite all of what I just said, I would absolutely have picked this team for the Over and possibly thought they had a shot in the NL East, if not for one thing – the best manager of our generation is no longer calling the shots.  It’s hard to quantify what Bobby Cox did for that clubhouse, but I can say that, regardless of his replacement, they have downgraded.  Give me the Under in Atlanta and a fifth straight NL East title for the Phightin’ Phils!

FINAL: 89-73
BRY ties it up 15-15
Three straight wins for the Phils against the Braves to close out the season gives Bry three straight points to close out the Preview, and we’ve got ourselves a flat-footed tie, folks.  And, for the first time in our four-year history, we have to go to the tie-breaker (win differential).

TIEBREAKER:
DOOGAN – 96
BRY – 49

Doogan takes the 2011 MLB Preview Title in a Tiebreaker, 96-49.

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NCAA Tournament Preview: The Midwest Region

Posted on March 14, 2012 by bry

The Committee did a pretty fantastic job all the way around, this year.  And, one of the most striking successes of this bracket is the balance that each region has.  The Midwest is no exception.  They have a UNC team that clearly has #1 talent, but hasn’t been quite as good as many thought.  Kansas is a strong #2, even though, on paper, they may not have seemed it early in the year.  Georgetown, while vulnerable, is a deserved #3.  And, Michigan/Temple at 4/5 is pretty tough.  And, yet, I still can’t say for sure that whether this region is stronger or weaker than any of the other three.  Well done, Committee, well done.

North Carolina’s Pod – Fri/Sun in Greensboro, NC

North Carolina should be one of the best college teams in a decade.  But, they aren’t; and there is nothing to say that they will become so in the next three weeks.  It was telling last week, when I had a lot riding on the Heels to beat Florida State in the ACC Championship.  You really learn about a team when you watch their game, really needing them to win.  I had no faith that they would make enough plays on either end of the floor.  They struggle to guard people, particularly on the perimeter, and have a gaping hole in the middle without Henson.  And, on the offensive end, when is Harrison Barnes going to show us why he was dubbed the “next Kobe?”  He’s just not that good.  I still might pick the Heels to win the whole thing, but that will only be because I’m neurotically stubborn.  How about this, though, I think they will definitely beat either Pat Knight’s Lamar team or Vermont on Friday.

All the talk about Doug McDermott and the Creighton Blue Jays may have hid the dirty little secret about Creighton – THEY DON’T PLAY ANY DEFENSE.  Don’t get me wrong, I love all things MVC, but this team really doesn’t guard anybody, and that almost completely precludes them from real success in this tournament, no matter how good McDermott is.  I actually really like Anthony Grant’s Alabama team.  They have top-level talent in guys like Jamychal Green and Tony Mitchell.  They also have some really solid secondary players like Trevor Relaford (or is it Travis – one of them is on Kansas and one on ‘Bama) and Andrew Steele.  And, the best part about them is that they buy into what Grant is selling – defense, defense, defense.  I think that this team could give the college hoops world a shock this weekend.

And, I’m not talking about shocking the world by beating Creighton.  I really think that Tar Heel fans should be Doug McDermott fans on Friday because this ‘Bama team can beat them.  Creighton cannot – they just don’t play enough (any) defense.

  1. North Carolina – 63.7%
  2. Alabama – 27%
  3. Creighton – 9%
  4. Vermont – 0.2%
  5. Lamar – 0.1%

Michigan’s Pod – Fri/Sun in Nashville, TN

Jon Bielein is a phenomenal coach, and he has rejuvenated this Michigan basketball program.  They tied with Michigan St. and Ohio St. for the Big Ten title, which is nothing to sneeze at.  But, are we convinced that this team really has what it takes to make a run here?  I’m not.  In fact, I think that Ohio, led by the great D.J. Cooper, has a real shot at an upset here.  Either way, I’m not sure that Michigan is quite there…yet.

The team that is there – or better be after so many near-misses – is the Temple Owls.  There is no secret as to what team I root for, but I have proven time and again that I am pretty objective when it comes to the Owls.  I was terrified of Cornell; I didn’t think they had a shot against San Diego St. last year; and, I acknowledged that Michigan St. was probably too much to ask for, as far as an upset pick three years ago.  But, this year is different.  This year, the team seems more complete and more consistent.  They don’t rely on one player, and they can both score and defend inside and outside.  Oh, and it is definitely strange to not know their opponent yet.  I think Cal is the better team and should take care of South Florida tonight, I am actually hoping that they do because I think the slowdown, physical style of USF is a nightmare for anyone in a one-game setting.  Then again, if this Temple team is as good as we think it is, they should be able to win a game at either speed.

And, if there is any leftover resentment from the since-vacated Michigan Final Four run in 1993 that happened to go through the Temple Owls in the Elite Eight, maybe this year will be the chance to bury those demons…ya know, if Michigan gets there.  Then again, I do think the Wolverines actually do matchup well with the Owls, so we Owls fans will be rooting for the Bobcats hard on Friday night.

  1. Temple – 34%
  2. Michigan – 31%
  3. California – 13%
  4. Ohio – 12%
  5. South Florida – 10%

Georgetown’s Pod – Fri/Sat in Columbus, OH

Georgetown has been really good this year – at least one year ahead of schedule.  Belmont has been really good this year – again – right on schedule.  This Belmont team is, dare I say, great.  They have been playing together for four years.  They are unselfish and balanced.  They are experienced, confident, and talented.  They can shoot the lights out, but don’t mind mixing it up or driving to the rack.  I am not going to say that they the favorites here against a really solid G’town team, but this is not IN ANY WAY your typical 3/14 matchup.  The Hoyas got a bit of a raw deal here, if you believe they were 3-seed worthy (which I do, actually).  This is a very live upset pick here – more than any 3/14 I can remember.

And, just to blow this pod up completely, I actually do think that N.C. State, the 11-seed, should be favored to beat #6 San Diego St. on Friday.  Not only have the Aztecs been struggling, but they rely on Jamaal Franklin a little too much, and N.C. State has a slew of athletes to throw at him.  C.J. Leslie is one of those guys that you don’t want to count on in ho-hum games on the road on a Wednesday night in January, but when the lights are on, I’ll take him.  Oh, and by the way, this game is scheduled for 9:40 am, San Diego time.

So, with both games in the first round in total flux, who can possibly tell what we have in store for us on Sunday.  Either way, it should be awfully interesting, and I think I’m going with an 11-seed to be favored to win this pod because I think they should get by SD State and certainly can beat G’town (or Belmont).

  1. N.C. State – 32%
  2. Georgetown – 29%
  3. Belmont – 22%
  4. San Diego St. – 17%

Kansas’s Pod – Fri/Sun in Omaha, NE

How good is Bill Self?  Very good.  This Kansas team was not supposed to win their 8th consecutive Big XII title (an incredible streak in any conference, let alone one of the best in the country), and yet they did.  I know that Thomas Robinson went from “good” to “best in the country” and Jeff Withey went from “stiff” to “very good,” but still, to think that this team, this year, would be a #2-seed is remarkable.  Even Ty Taylor seems to have bought in, which could seal Self’s COY honors in and of itself.  But, even with a 2-seed, they were not done any favors in the first round.  While Robinson might be the best player in the country, Detroit‘s Ray McCallum Jr. might be the second-best player in this game.  And, the Titans are rolling.  Despite a slow start, they won the Horizon tournament, despite the big disadvantage of the 3-seed, and they are playing with a ton of confidence – even talking some trash.  While they are probably deserving of their 15-seed (and, therefore, not warranted to talk any trash to Kansas), they are dangerous.  I would not have liked my draw, if I were a Kansas fan.

St. Mary’s has officially become their own program now that they beat Gonzaga for the regular season outright title and then took them down in the WCC championship game.  (Ignore the fact that they both got 7-seeds…)  Now, they get a shot to grab another tournament victory for a program that has arrived.  But, they have a really tough first test in Purdue.  The Boilermakers are battle-tested through a brutal Big Ten and, even though they lost a pair of NBA draft picks, they did add a star in Robbie Hummel back to the mix.  This game is one of the better first round matchups, and it seems like a total toss up to me.

While Kansas got, easily, the toughest 15-seed, they probably got aligned with the 7/10 duo that presents the least danger in the second round.  I love Matthew Dellavadova and the St. Mary’s Gaels, but they don’t have anyone who can possibly matchup with Robinson or Withey inside.  And, while you’d be a heartless bastard not to root for Hummel to have some sort of success, this Purdue team is just not good enough to be considered a real threat to the Jayhawks.  I would say that Purdue presents a slightly tougher matchup than St. Mary’s, but not appreciably, and the Jayhawks should still be playing next week…then again, we’ve heard that before.

  1. Kansas – 61%
  2. Purdue – 17%
  3. St. Mary’s – 15%
  4. Detroit – 7%
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NCAA Tournament Preview – East Region

Posted on March 14, 2012 by bry

Well, talk about throwing a wrench in the works.  The #1-seed in the East just lost their most important player for the tournament.  This region is, all of a sudden, the definition of “wide open.”

Syracuses’s Pod – Thu/Sat in Pittsburgh, PA

Fab Melo isn’t the best player on Syracuse, but he is, without question, the most important.  What is the biggest weakness for the ‘Cuse?  Rebounding and interior defense.  Who is, by far the best rebounder on the team?  Melo.  And, who was the Big East’s Defensive Player of the Year?  Melo.  That could spell trouble.  Fortunately, for them, Melo was declared ineligible after the seedings were announced (not that it definitely would have dropped them, but we’ve seen stranger things happen), so they are still a #1-seed and they still get UNC-Asheville tomorrow, whom they should be okay against even without Melo because Asheville isn’t all that deep.  They shouldn’t get too complacent, though, because we all know the best way to beat a zone is to get real hot from outside, and Asheville has a pair of phenomenally talented and experience guards in J.P. Primm and Matt Dickey, who comprise as good of a low-major backcourt as you’ll find anywhere.

Kansas St. is battle-tested and tough and should be pretty happy with their matchup with Southern Miss.  Larry Eustachy’s Golden Eagles have had a great season – and Eustachy is a great coach, but they seem to be taking on water recently, and I really don’t see this as your typical 8/9 game.  So, that means it will probably be the best game of the round…

Fans of the Orange are probably very much in support of Eustachy and his Southern Miss squad now, because without Melo, they do not matchup very well with the tough and rugged Wildcats.  With Melo, they probably would cruise through Pittsburgh; without him, it’s much less rosy upstate, so a Southern Miss win could go a long way.

  1. Syracuse – 52%
  2. Kansas St. – 36.5%
  3. Southern Miss- 11%
  4. UNC-Asheville – 0.5%

Wisconsin’s Pod – Thu/Sat in Albuquerque, NM

I talk a lot about underrated and underappreciated coaches on this blog, but there is no one in the country more underrated than Bo Ryan.  Name me the NBA players that Bo Ryan has been able to lure to Wisconsin.  Jon Leuer…?  Anyone else?  No, and yet the guy just keeps winning.  And, he has done it again this year, with a new set of smoke and mirrors.  But, there is one thing that has alluded him all these years – a Final Four.  I’m not too sure that this team is the one that will get that done for him, but with Bo, you never know.  Their trek starts today against a dangerous 13-seed from the Big Sky in Montana.  The Grizzlies boast a pair of dynamic guards in Will Cherry and Karim Jabbar, who really get out and guard people.  But, this isn’t a great matchup for the Grizz because Wisconsin doesn’t need to score much to win, so Montana’s defensive acumen isn’t as big of an advantage against the Badgers as it would against many other teams that rely on perimeter scoring to beat you.  That being said, if they can get by Wisconsin somehow, a second round showdown with Vanderbilt might be just the matchup that they would like.

Speaking of Vanderbilt, the Commodores come into the Tournament the way the came into the season – a chic Final Four pick.  The problem is that their work in the middle, they didn’t really do much to impress.  That being said, they have an immense amount of talent and experience, with Jenkins, Taylor, Ezeli, and Tinsley, and certainly have what it takes to make a serious run in this tournament.  The Fab Melo suspension may have helped them as much as anyone.  But, you know what’s funny?  The Vandy love is so palpable right now that it is completely overshadowing the team that I really thought would be getting that love – Harvard.  This team is really good, and were they matched up against anyone else, we might be hearing all this talk about the Crimson making the Sweet 16 and so on.  But, we haven’t…which means, they can actually be a savvy sleeper pick.

The second round in this pod is going to be so matchup-dependent (like anything else) that it is so hard to even think about right now.  Either way, this is a fascinating section of the draw that isn’t getting much talk because most people think Vandy is going to roll through (not that I disagree with them being the favorite here, I just think it’s a lot more wide open than one might be led to believe).

  1. Vanderbilt – 41%
  2. Wisconsin – 34%
  3. Harvard – 14%
  4. Montana – 11%

Florida St.’s Pod – Fri/Sun in Nashville, TN

Florida St. had a weekend for the ages, knocking off Duke on Satuday and UNC on Sunday – wow!  And, this team might just be that good.  They are experienced, mature, and talented.  Plus, with Bunny Colvin…I mean Leonard Hamilton…on the sidelines, they are well-coached.  That being said, let’s not go too crazy about a team that might not have a single pro on the roster.  They open with a team that is pretty underseeded, in St. Bonaventure, who did finish 4th in a good, deep A-10 and then won the tournament.  And, they absolutely have a pro on the roster, as Andrew Nicholson will, most definitely, be the best player on the floor on Friday.  The senior center from Canada is a man-child.  I don’t think it’ll be easy for the Seminoles, but they should survive.

Cincinnati went to the Big East championship game for the first time in their history – an impressive feat for a team that lost at home to Presbyterian earlier this year.  Say what you will about Yancy Gates – and I have – the guy can play.  They draw a Texas team that makes another tournament for the underappreciated Rick Barnes (I feel like I defend him every year around this time…and then he proves me to be an idiot when they underachieve).  The ‘Horns didn’t expect for their freshman center and freshman point guard to bolt for the NBA last year after good, but not great, seasons.  So, they were kind of left reeling at the start of the year, but found some semblance of consistency late, including a nice win over Iowa St. in the Big XII tournament.  J’Covan Brown is probably the best player on either roster, but I think this is a really bad matchup for Texas here – as they have a tendency to be “out-toughed” (another consistent trait of a Rick Barnes team that makes it harder to defend him).

I think the Seminoles got a pretty decent draw here, all things considered, as they get a 14-seed (albeit an underseeded one) to open and then either a “tough” team that isn’t as tough as them (Cincy) or a soft team that they will push around (Texas).  The ‘Noles should be heading to their second straight Sweet 16.

  1. Florida St. – 52%
  2. Cincinnati – 29%
  3. Texas – 13%
  4. St. Bonaventure – 6%

Ohio St.’s Pod – Thu/Sat in Pittsburgh, PA

As I saw it in November, Ohio St. came into the season as one of definitely two and maybe three teams that seemed head and shoulders ahead of the rest of the country.  The one that was a maybe (Kentucky) dominated the season and is the overall #1-seed.  My clear-cut preseason favorite (UNC) struggled at times, but still ended up as a #1-seed.  The Buckeyes finished in third place (albeit tied for first) in the Big Ten and lost in the conference tournament title game, ending up with a #2-seed here.  That being said, they are still loaded and will be a really tough out.  Their first opponent – a feisty Loyola (Md) team – is probably just happy to be here.  They are a very good team that I have been touting all year, but they really don’t have the horses to match up with the Buckeyes in any way.

I really like this Gonzaga team – and you have to hand it to them for having another nationally relevant season in Spokane, and I love Kevin Jones (the rest of his West Virginia team is a bit frustrating), so this is one of the marquee first-round matchups.  In fact, there might not be a better first round game than this one.

However, as much as I like that 7/10 matchup, it seems to me as if it might be one of those incredibly physical, warlike first round battles that leaves the survivor too wounded to compete in the next round.  I don’t see Gonzaga giving OSU a fight on Saturday, and while I think Kevin Jones can do anything, I don’t think Truck Bryant or Denis Klicli make enough shots to take down the Buckeyes.

  1. Ohio St. – 69.5%
  2. West Virginia – 18%
  3. Gonzaga – 12%
  4. Loyola (Md) – 0.5%
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NCAA Tournament Preview – The West Region

Posted on March 13, 2012 by bry

The West Region is pretty stacked and, therefore, pretty wide open.  While they had a terrific season (and have the best tournament coach ever that isn’t named Wooden), it’s hard not to have some doubt in this region’s top seed, Michigan St.  Throw in the fact that they could have brutally tough matchups at every turn, and you’ve got yourself a potential sleeper Final Four pick here.

Michigan St.’s Pod – Fri/Sun in Columbus, OH

Don’t get me wrong, I didn’t say that I was doubting Michigan St., necessarily.  This team did win the regular season and conference tournament of the best conference in America.  There is something to be said for that, at least.  They did draw – by far – the toughest 16-seed, in Long Island, but it’s still a 16-seed.  Just don’t immediately count out the Blackbirds, who have been here before, and played UNC really tough last year, before bowing out in the final minutes (the Blackbirds scored 87 against the Heels as a 16-seed last year).

The 8/9 game in this region might actually be more important for Spartan fans to pay attention to than MSU’s own game.  Memphis might be the most underseeded team in the entire field at #8 and is a team that can absolutely go toe-to-toe with MSU in the second round.  But, they could just as easily get swept up by a Rick Majerus-coached St. Louis team in this first round.  The Bilikens are very deep, very talented, and, obviously, very prepared.

For a #1-seed, this is not even close to a lock.  They are lined up with a very underseeded 16-seed and an unbelievably underseeded 8-seed.  Not saying that they will lose both, but this isn’t your typical cruise control pod for a #1-seed.  The best scenario for them is a St. Louis win over Memphis (certainly possible) because they match up very well against the Bilikens.

  1. Michigan St. – 56%
  2. Memphis – 31%
  3. St. Louis – 12%
  4. Long Island – 1%

 Louisville’s Pod – Thu/Sat in Portland, OR

I am going to have trouble being objective about this one because of my love for this Long Beach St. team and, to a lesser degree, this Davidson team.  I also think that Louisville, despite their top-5 ranking in December and Big East tournament championship last week, are not as good as their seed (which is warranted) may indicate.  I do really like this New Mexico team, though.  This is, BY FAR, the most interesting pod in the entire field.  If I could go to one site this weekend, it would absolutely be Portland (they also have Indiana-NM State and Wichita-VCU).

Louisville takes on a very, very good Davidson team that beat Kansas in Kansas City this year.  Jake Cohen – a forward from Philly – leads a terrific junior class that came in in the wake of the Steph Curry tournament run.  I think that there is a really good shot at an upset here.

And, the other game has another good shot at an upset, as Long Beach St., one of the best low-majors in recent memory, takes on a New Mexico team that would compete in any conference in America.  This game is incredibly good, and I think the winner might be the favorite to win this pod.

I have no idea what is going to happen here.  I want to give everyone 25%, but that sounds cop-outish.  So, I’ll go with this year’s strange basketball obsession, Casper Ware and the 49ers.

  1. Long Beach St. – 30%
  2. New Mexico – 29%
  3. Louisville – 22%
  4. Davidson – 19%

Marquette’s Pod – Thu/Sat in Louisville, KY

If you want a sleeper title contender, look no further than Marquette.  The Golden Eagles are experienced, talented, and motivated.  While I think this whole “they play really hard” thing is totally overblown (what does Buzz Williams inspire that 50-60 other coaches don’t – I actually think he is a pretty poor game-day coach) they are just very talented.  Jae Crowder, while not at all deserving of Big East POY, is a terrific player.  Darius Johnson-Odom might even be better.  Vander Blue is a super-talented point guard, and this team flat-out guards you.  It should be really interesting to see how they do depending on who they get from the play-in game, BYU or Iona, as the teams have vastly different styles.  But, either way, I think Marquette should survive…should survive.

The Committee did a nice job with Murray St.‘s seeding.  The polls have them as a top-10 team, but their conference and schedule and such have them more like a 10-seed.  So, they split the difference and gave them a solid #6.  And, even more beneficial, they gave them a couple matchups that don’t completely overmatch them in the post.  They open with a very good, very underappreciated Colorado St. team that does stuggle away from home.  But, anywhere you play UNLV, New Mexico, and San Diego St., you’ve gotta be pretty good to pull out W’s – and they’ve got all three of them on their resume.

This pod is pretty wide-open…if Marquette doesn’t win it.

  1. Marquette – 54%
  2. Murray St. – 18%
  3. Colorado St. – 15%
  4. BYU – 8%
  5. Iona – 5%

Missouri’s Pod – Fri/Sun in Omaha, NE

Missouri could have easily been a #1-seed (over UNC).  But, at least they were put in the region with the weakest #1, on paper.  They weren’t done any favors with the #3 Marquette on their side, but I still don’t see any reason why they shouldn’t, at least, get to the Elite Eight.  Also, it looks like the Committee decided to give them a 16-seed disguised as a 15-seed, in Norfolk St.  It was a great season for Norfolk, but, short of some crazy foul trouble or an injury, they really have no shot here, as they didn’t even win the regular season title in the lowly MEAC.

Missouri won’t be given a break in the second round at all, though, as Florida, a top-15 team all year, is the 7-seed, and Virginia, a top-4 ACC team, is the 10-seed.  This UF-UVa game is one of the best of the entire first round.  It should be fascinating to see just how many terrible shots that Boynton and Walker chuck up because of the frustration caused by the slow, slower, sloooooooooower pace of UVa.

And, then the winner of that game, will present Missouri with much different challenges, depending on who it is.  Florida can run and gun with anyone, and UVa can frustrate the hell out of anyone.  Mizzou is not going to have an easy time in Round 2.

  1. Missouri – 51%
  2. Florida – 30%
  3. Virginia – 18.9%
  4. Norfolk St. – 0.1%
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NCAA Tournament Preview – The South Region

Posted on March 13, 2012 by bry

The first two rounds of the NCAA tournament constitute the greatest 4 days on the sporting calendar every year.  It never disappoints and always lives up to its ridiculous hype.  It’s simply the best.  Forget “filling out our brackets” to the end, let’s just focus on this weekend’s Madness and then when the smoke clears and we know who’s left standing, we can figure out where to go from there.  It’s all the first two rounds right for me right now – and I like to think of it as a series of 4-team tournaments (or “pods”) around the country.

Let’s start in the South.  Overall, I don’t think Kentucky has all that tough a road (which is fine, considering they are the #1 overall seed).  Duke is clearly the weakest #2, though Baylor could beat anyone on any given day, but they would have to avoid implosion for three rounds before even getting a shot at UK.  Indiana is flawed at #4, and Wichita St. is good, but not real threat to the ‘Cats.  The one intriguing spot is UConn at #9, particularly with the two coaches hating each other, but that game will be played with the Commonwealth of Kentucky (Louisville), and there is certainly no guarantee that the Huskies will even arrive to play that game.

Kentucky’s Pod – Thu/Sat in Louisville, KY

The #1 overall seed, Kentucky, gets to open with the play-in winner, who will probably be in-state “rival,” Western Kentucky.  The Hilltoppers have a losing record on the year and won’t give much of a problem (nor will the winner of the dreadful SWAC, Mississippi Valley St., if they win tonight).

The 8/9 matchup is very intriguing if, for nothing else, it dictates whether or not the top overall seed has to play the defending national champs in the second round.  Iowa St.’s Royce White is a total stud and “The Mayor” Freddy Hoiberg has done great work with the Cyclones, but they get a rough first-round matchup with UConn, who may have righted the ship.

Obviously, as the #1 overall seed, playing in their home state, the ‘Cats should get out of their pod unscathed, but a second-round matchup with UConn could be a really tough proposition if this is the UConn team that was #4 in the preseason polls.  Drummond and Oreaki inside are massive, and Jeromy Lamb and Shabazz Napier have shown what they can do.  If the Huskies get anything out of highly-touted Roscoe James or the German Neils Giffey, then they can be really tough.  So, here are my very unscientific odds to win this pod:

  1. Kentucky – 85%
  2. UConn – 10.9%
  3. Iowa St. – 4%
  4. W.Kentucky – 0.09%
  5. Mississippi Valley St. – 0.01%

Indiana’s Pod – Thu/Sat in Portland, OR

The loss of Vernell Jones is absolutely heartbreaking, when you think about it.  Here is a guy who is now in his fourth year as an basketball player at Indiana University and has never played in a postseason game.  And, now, in his senior season, after three years of building to this point, when his team is finally relevant again – in the top 15 in the country – he tears his ACL in the Big Ten tournament, ending his season, his career, and his only chance at playing the Big Dance.  Just brutal.  The lone bright spot from it is that he won’t have to be in uniform when the Hoosiers get upset in the First Round.  That’s right, I really like this New Mexico St. team, and I think they will beat Indiana on Thursday.  Wendel McKines is one of the best players in the country that no one has ever heard of…until now.

The other game in this pod was the third matchup announced by CBS on Sunday, and I almost threw something at my TV because I saw where it was going – where it always goes.  The Committee always seems to have a habit of matching up really good mid-majors against one another, assuring that one of them will go out, so that they don’t continue on in the process, killing the TV ratings of later rounds.  And, I thought that this Committe was doing it again.  As it turned out, this Committee did a pretty fantastic job and was very fair to the mid-majors, this matchup just happened to come through.  Would I have rather seen Cincinnati-VCU and Wichita-Texas?  Yes, but that’s splitting hairs, and I probably would have complained about Wichita being underseeded.  Anyway, this game is going to be really good.  VCU‘s chaos pressure is actually a pretty bad matchup for Wichita St.  Joe Ragland is a great scoring guard, but isn’t incredibly efficient with the ball.  The Rams might force 20+ turnovers on Thursday.  But, they also aren’t the same VCU team that shot lights-out in last year’s tournament.  Brandon Burgess is very good player, but he’s not an NBA draft pick, like they have had in the past.  And, Wichita is very good and very deep.  Garrett Stutz might be the most improved player in the country, and all the talk about Ragland has people forget that Ben Smith and, especially, Toure Murry are really outstanding players.  I like the Shockers to survive here…barely.

And, either way, I like the winner of that 5-12 game to get through this pod en route to a showdown with Kentucky next week.  So, give me Wichita St. to win this pod, but it’s really way up in the air.  While I like New Mexico St. to beat Indiana, I actually think Indiana has a better chance to win the pod because I don’t see the Aggies winning back-to-back games.

  1. Wichita St. – 36%
  2. VCU – 29%
  3. Indiana – 21%
  4. New Mexico St. – 14%

Baylor’s Pod – Thu/Sat in Albuquerque, NM

Baylor might be the most physically talented team in the country.  They have unbelievable athletes on this team and can be scary good.  But, they play with immaturity and even apathy at times.  But, when they’re good, they can beat anyone – and are pretty scary.  They open on Thursday with a South Dakota St. team that has a guy named Nate Wolters, who you will hear a whole lot about in the next couple of days.  He’s really, really good, and puts up ridiculous numbers.  And, this team has become the poster-child for national college hoops writers that want to show everyone that they know about more than just the major conferences (my guess is because they’re enamored by the nickname, Jackrabbits).  It’s kind of annoying, but doesn’t take away what they’ve done this year.  They finished second to a good Oral Roberts team in the Summit and have a 20-point win at Washington on their resume.  But, they will be overmatched on Thursday, so don’t let anyone talk you into this upset pick.

The 6/11 game is fascinating, actually.  The Pac-12 tournament champs, Colorado, aren’t that far from home in Albuquerque, and they are very good at home.  They have a double-double machine in Anthony Roberson, but he won’t be the best big on the floor on Thursday.  Mike Moser – a UCLA transfer – is an absolute stud for UNLV, and should at least cancel out whatever Roberson gives Colorado.  And, the Rebels have better guards in Oscar Bellfield and Anthony Marshall.  I like UNLV here easily to set up a really nice second-round matchup with Baylor.  That is one I cannot wait for.

Can Baylor put together two great games in three days?  If not, UNLV will beat them.  If this game happens, it might be the highlight of a great Saturday.  Wolters is good enough to win a couple games, so, while I think the Jackrabbits are overmatched, I don’t think it’s totally out of the question that they get through here.  I actually give them a slightly better chance than Colorado.

  1. Baylor – 43%
  2. UNLV – 36%
  3. South Dakota St. – 11%
  4. Colorado – 10%

Duke’s Pod – Fri/Sun in Greensboro, NC

I do like rewarding the higher seeds with an easier path and maybe a slightly shorter trip, but I do think that UNC or Duke playing in Greensboro, NC, is a little too unfair.  But, I guess the almighty dollar always trumps everything.  This is not your typical season for a Duke team, but it is your prototypical Coach K season, as he has completely maximized the talent on his roster this year.  He is so good, it’s really getting to be unfair.  And, they drew a team that probably can’t pull off this upset – especially in Greensboro – but they will hang with them.  While everyone has been loving Nate Wolters all year, I have been singing the praises of C.J. McCollum, Lehigh‘s point gu…scratch that…do-everything-guard.  He has scored 2,030 points, dished out 262 assists, grabbed 622 rebounds, and has more steals (207) than fouls (168) and nearly as many steals as turnovers (227).  In fact, this year, he did have more steals than turnovers.  Those are unbelievable career numbers…and the dude is ONLY A JUNIOR!  That’s right, the all-time leading scorer in Patriot League history (who happens to average 3+ assists, 3+ steals, and 6+ rebounds a game) still has another year of eligibility.  Ya, he’s that good.  But, Coach K will figure out a way to slow him down – he always does.

The 7/10 game is a fascinating game between the nation’s most overachieving team (Notre Dame), and one of its most underachieving teams (Xavier).  If you said at the beginning of the season that these two teams would meet in the tournament, you might think that XU was the higher seed in a 5/12 game or 4/13 game (after getting over the shock of ND actually making the tournament).  But, no, Mike Brey has done a terrific coaching job in South Bend, and quite honestly, Chris Mack has done a pretty terrible job with the Musketeers.  That being said, XU is cleary the more talented of the two, and probably the only one of the two that really could win this pod.

Either way, Duke has a really nice draw here, both with location and opponents.  Even though it was nice of the NCAA to allow Luke Harangody to return to ND after they lost Abromaitis, it won’t be enough.  Duke should cruise through this pod.

  1. Duke – 76%
  2. Xavier – 19%
  3. Notre Dame – 4%
  4. Lehigh – 1%
Posted in College Hoops | 4 Comments

CTC Final Standings: Primm Comes from Behind on the Last Day to Steal the Overall Title

Posted on March 12, 2012 by bry

For the second year in a row, Bry enters the final day with the lead and doesn’t come through with the victory.  After Rikey stole the overall title by a single point last year, Primm takes the championship this year.  Though this year, it was by the decent margin of 57.5.  Thus ends a great CTC all around.

There were four games on Day Fourteen.  Two separate games were won by 3-seeds in the finals (worth 100 points), another was a 1-seed (worth 60 points), and the fourth was by a 4-seed that no one got right.  Interestingly, no one in the field got more than one of them right.  KA, Mac, Primm, and RDoc each got a 100-point game right to win the day with 100 points.  Gersh, Scoot, Stri, and Waters all got the 60-point game right.  The other 12 people all took a fat goose egg on the final day of the competition.

Primm, who made the ultimate jump to #1 right at the finish line, was the only person to gain more than 1 spot on the final day, as he came from 4th place to win it.  Lohse, who fell from 3rd to 5th, was the only one to drop more than one spot on the final day.  Mac, RDoc, Stri, and Waters all moved up a spot at the final buzzer.  Rikey, RSmith, Gross, Doogan, and Bry dropped a spot on the final day.

FINAL STANDINGS (days won/conferences won):

  1. Primm – 2887.5 (2 days/3 confs – NEC*, BigEast, ACC)
  2. Bry – 2830 (0 days/2 confs – BigSky*, BigWest*)
  3. Doogan – 2816 (0 days/1 conf – SWAC*)
  4. Mac – 2811 (1 day/6 confs – ASun, Patriot*, NEC*, MAC, BigWest*, SEC)
  5. Lohse – 2799 (3 days/7 confs- BigSouth, Horizon, OVC, ASun, C-USA, Southland, WAC)
  6. RDoc – 2771 (2 days/2 confs – BigSky*, MWC*)
  7. Gross – 2668.5 (0 days/4 confs – ASun, CAA, Summit, Pac-12)
  8. Alexi – 2611 (1 day/2 confs – OVC, WCC)
  9. Teddy – 2572 (1 day/4 confs – ASun, MAAC, SunBelt, A-10)
  10. Dave – 2513 (1 day/3 confs – OVC, MEAC, SWAC*)
  11. Stri – 2510.5 (1 day/3 confs – OVC, ASun, SWAC*)
  12. RSmith – 2471.5 (0 days/1 conf – MVC*)
  13. J – 2422.5 (1  day/1 conf – BigSouth)
  14. Scoot – 2388.5 (1 day/4 confs – ASun, AmEast, Southland, Big10)
  15. Lynch – 2331.5 (0 days/2 confs – BigSky*, BigWest*)
  16. Waters – 2288.5 (0 days/3 confs – AmEast, WAC, BigWest*)
  17. Rikey – 2223.5 (1 day/4 confs – OVC, ASun, NEC*, BigSky*)
  18. Gersh – 2205.5 (0 days/2 confs – ASun, Big10)
  19. Lil Lohse – 2120 (0 days/2 confs – NEC*, SoCon)
  20. KA – 1888 (1 day/1 conf – BigXII)
Posted in Conference Tourney Challenge | Tagged | 4 Comments

CTC Final Standings: Final Conference Standings & Money Division Recap

Posted on March 12, 2012 by bry

As seems to happen every year, the CTC ends right when the Selection Show begins, so I obviously get carried away thinking ahead to the greatest sports event of the year, without looking back on the CTC, as a good commish should…well, I am not a good commish.  But, considering the countless posts that I write during the two weeks, I might as well write one last one with all the tournaments that ended on the final weekend.  So, I decided to just give quick recaps on all 31 tournaments (with the money division updated).

Big South Conference

The VMI Run to the Finals Wins the Conference for J and Lohse

The unlikely run by the Keydets was enough for J and Lohse to easily win the 2012 Big South title, scoring 104 points – 41 more than anyone else.  This is the first Big South title for either of these guys, as 7 people have now won a share of the Big South over the 5 years of recordkeeping.  Defending champion, Doogan, finished a distant second place.

J takes the $9 prize from the Big South.

Horizon League

Lohse Rides Detroit to Another Conference Crown

The Lohse Train was rolling, as he wins a share of the first conference and the second one outright.  Only getting one first round game wrong, Lohse finished with 165 points in the Horizon.  This was Lohse’s first Horizon crown.  Defending champ, Bry, had won two of the last three, did finish in the top 5, but way off the pace.

Gross – who also hit Detroit – finished second place (123 points) to take the $18 bounty here.

Ohio Valley Conference

A Nearly All-Chalk OVC Tournament Gives Us a Five-Way Tie at the Top

There was only one upset (7 over 6 in the first round), so it’s no surprise that 5 people tied for this crown.  The real surprise is that no one actually hit  this perfectly, as Alexi, Dave, Lohse, Rikey, and Stri all missed one game, pocketing 70 points from this conference.  J was not a part of the five-way tie, which is a bit surprising, considering he had won this conference two years in a row.

Dave and Rikey split this pot for $4.50 apiece.

Atlantic Sun Conference

We’ll Take Your Five-Way Tie and Raise You Three More

The A-Sun wasn’t all that chalky, but it did give us our most divided conference championship of the 2012 CTC (tied for the most in history with the 2011 Summit League crown).  Gersh, Gross, Lohse, Mac, Rikey, Stri, Scoot, and Teddy all scored 48 points in the A-Sun, which was tops in the conference.  Neither Dave (co-2011 champ) nor Bry (2010 champ) were a part of this 8-way tie, but even more surprising was that the tie didn’t include J, who has a share of the 2011 A-Sun crown and sole possession of the 2008 and 2009 A-Sun titles.

Gersh, Gross, and Rikey each pocket $3 from their A-Sun excellence.

West Coast Conference

Alexi Hits Near Perfection to Take Home 130 Points and a WCC Title

The WCC was almost entirely chalk.  Alexi thought it would actually be all chalk, so he missed perfection by a single game (USF upsetting LMU).  He took 130 points here and the title, edging defending WCC champ, Bry, by 4 points.

Bry does take the $18 pot here in the money division.

Patriot League

Mac Hits Perfection in the Patriot League

A really good PL tournament was perfectly predicted by Mac, good for 72 points.  Lohse finished in second with 66, and then there was an eight-way tie for third with 54, including the defending champion, Gross.

Gross, Bry, J, and Dave were all a part of that tie, which happened to win the money division, earning them each a cool $2.25.

Missouri Valley Conference

RSmith Completes The Most Impressive Bracket of the 2012 CTC, Hitting a Tough MVC Perfectly

Perfect brackets usually come along when conference tournaments give us very few surprises.  Well, that is not the case here, as RSmith hits the MVC perfectly, which included a surprising Evansville win over Missouri St. and a shocking Illinois St. win over Wichita St.  RSmith’s impressive stuff netted him 244 points here.  Defending champion, Alexi, finished in a respectable fifth place, but was more than 100 points off the pace.

Dave, the only other one to pick Illinois St. to reach the finals, picked up the $18 pot in the process.

Northeast Conference

Four different entries hit the NEC Perfectly

Only two minor upsets through the NEC tournament led to a four-way tie at the top, all going 7-for-7 in the NEC.  Lil Lohse, Mac, Primm, and Rikey all took home 73.5 points for the perfect NEC brackets they submitted.  Scoot and Stri were perfect last year, but both finished way off the pace this year.  Stri had actually won 3 of the last 4 NEC titles (two perfectly).

The perfect brackets from Rikey and Primm net them each $4.50.

Colonial Athletic Conference

Gross Narrowly Edged Doogan for the CAA Title

Gross only misses two games in the CAA, to earn 175 points and the 2012 title.  Doogan was right behind with 168, and the two-time defending champ, Bry, was third with 161.

Gross wins the CAA kitty of $18.

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

Teddy Dominates a Tough MAAC Tournament This Year

With Iona and Manhattan losing early, this MAAC tournament was tough to call, but Teddy was pretty good – only missing two games and scoring 106 points.  Scoot was a distant 2nd with 88.  Defending MAAC champ Primm was way off the pace with 64.  Two-time champ Bry (’09 and ’10) finished in 19th place with only 20 points.

Dave, the only one in the money division to hit the Fairfield upset of Iona, takes the MAAC bounty of $9.

Southern Conference

Lil Lohse Navigates the Murky Waters of the 2012 SoCon Tournament

The very strange conference didn’t cause Lil Lohse any problems, as he took 96 points away from this tournament.  Dave and RSmith finished second, while defending champ, Gross, was in the middle of the pack.

Dave takes the $9 SoCon pot.

Summit League

Gross Utterly Dominates a Tough Summit Bracket

When Oral Roberts loses in the semis, and Oakland loses in the quarters, you know that this was tough to call.  Well, Gross hit both of those upsets and wins the Summit with an impressive 118 points.  This is our first repeat champion of the 2012 CTC, as Gross was part of an 8-way tie for the 2011 title.

Gross also earns $9 for his efforts.

Sun Belt Conference

The Craziest Bracket of Them All Goes to Lohse, Who Was One of Only Two to Even Get One of the Finalists

Lohse and RSmith (who finished second) were the only two people to even get a single finalist right.  Neither of them got the champion, and Lohse wins the tournament with 104 points.  Defending champion, J, had just 28 points, but that was 28 points more than Dave, who finished with zero Sun Belt points.

Gross wins another money division title for another $9.

Big Sky Conference

Perfection for Four People in the Big Sky’s All-Chalk Finish

Bry, Lynch, Rikey, and RDoc all went 5-for-5 in the Big Sky, as they went all chalk for 72 points.  This is the second straight title for Bry – and second straight perfect bracket.

Bry, Rikey, and RDoc will all take home $3 for their perfection.

Mid-American Conference

Mac Edges RDoc by Just 3 Points for the 2012 MAC Crown

The crazy new MAC format was good for Mac, who scored 195 in this conference, just 3 more than RDoc, who finished second.  Doogan, the defending champ and winner of 3 of the last 4 MACs, finished in third place.

Ohio’s 1-point win over Akron in the title game gave RDoc the $18 MAC title over Bry.

Big East Conference

Louisville Wins Primm the Big East and, Essentially, the Overall Title

Primm took the Louisville Cardinals all the way to the Big East finals, giving him 295 points (135 more than anyone else in the Big East) and was crucial to his come-from-behind overall championship.  Defending champion, Scoot, had just 100.

Primm won the $27 at stake here in the Big East.

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Dave Cruises to a Very Impressive MEAC Title

Dave hit Hampton over #1 Savannah St. and Bethune-Cookman into the finals, giving him 81 points and a 31-point win over everyone else in the MEAC.  Doogan, who finished all alone in second place, gives up his MEAC crown to Dave here.

Dave takes the $9 on the line for the MEAC.

Atlantic Ten Conference

Teddy’s UMass Upset Pick is Enough to Win a Conference Without Picking Either Finalist

Teddy hit the huge UMass upset of #1 Temple, leading him to 153 points and an A-10 title, despite getting both finalists wrong.  Defending champion Waters, who has won 2 of the last 4 A-10s, finished in last place here with just 36 points.

Primm continues to clean up in the money division, taking another $18 here.

Big XII Conference

KA Dominates the Big XII, Scoring 325 Points in the Process

KA got the first Big XII game wrong (Texas A&M over Oklahoma), and then went on a 10-game Big XII winning streak, including the Baylor upset of Kansas and the Missouri championship.  Defending champion, Bry, finished in second with 265 points.

Bry did earn himself $27 for his runner-up finish, though.

Pacific 12 Conference

Gross Rides Arizona and Colorado to a Pac-12 Championship

Gross had Arizona going to the finals and Colorado to the semis.  That was enough to get him 225 points and the Pac-12 championship – barely edging Doogan.  Lynch, who won the 2011 Pac-10 title, must have been thrown by the two extra teams, as he finished tied for last with 30 points.

Gross pockets another $27 here.

Conference USA

Lohse, Who Dominated Week One, Reminds People That He’s Still Around With an Impressive C-USA Title

If Houston had held on against UTEP in the very first C-USA tournament game (they blew a big second half lead and lost in OT), then Lohse would have put together one of the more impressive perfect brackets we have seen in a while.  Either way, taking 296 points was the best performance in any tournament the whole CTC (if you discount the multipliers), including riding 6th-seeded Marshall to the title game.  Defending champion, Lynch, was in the middle of the pack this year.

Gross, who was runner-up to Lohse, takes the money division for another $18.

Southland Conference

Lohse Wins Another Conference Title – Sharing This One With Scoot

Lohse is rolling again, as he wins yet another conference championship, but has to split this one with Scoot.  Both guys took home 64.5 points here, barely edging KA and Doogan for this title.  Defending champion, Dave, was in the middle of the pack here.

Doogan’s second-place was good enough for the $9 pot here.

Southwestern Athletic Conference

Dave, Doogan, and Stri are All Perfect in the SWAC

A couple of quarterfinal upsets didn’t bother these three, as they cruised to a perfect SWAC bracket and the 52 points to went with it.  Lynch was in a group that finished just off the pace, but wasn’t enough to defend his 2011 title.

Dave and Doogan split the $9 pot, taking $4.50 each.

Mountain West Conference

RDoc Goes Perfect for a Nice Mountain West Title

216 points goes to RDoc for his impressive run to perfection in the MWest.  Bry and J were both perfect last year – J had a decent 160 points this year, but Bry struggled with only 108.

RDoc’s efforts give him a quick $18 here.

Western Athletic Conference

Tied With Waters, Lohse Wins His Seventh Conference Title – Most of 2012

Lohse and Waters were the only two to hit the Hawaii upset of Idaho and pick the right champion, earning themselves 126 points and a WAC title in the process.  This is the second straight WAC title for Waters.

Gross, Gersh, and RDoc all had 96 points in the WAC, adding $6 to each of their bankrolls.

Big West Conference

Bry and Mac Hit a Nice Perfect Bracket Here

There was a 7 over 2 upset in this bracket, so going perfect was no easy task, but Bry and Mac were both able to do it for 64.5 points.  This is the second time Bry has hit this conference perfectly (2009).  Defending champion, J, was just 6 points off the leaders, in third place.

Bry wins $9 for his efforts.

Great West

Lynch and Waters Are Impressively Perfect

This conference was not easy to predict, but Lynch and Waters both did so, which included a big NJIT upset of the top-seed, Utah Valley.  Perfection got them both 22.5 points.  Defending champ, J, had a mere 2 points here, finishing in last place.

Gersh’s 14 points were enough to get him a quick $8 from the Great West.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Florida St. Gives Primm the ACC and the Overall Title at the Eleventh Hour

Primm rode Bunny Colvin’s Florida State Seminoles to 275 points, an ACC Championship and a 2012 CTC Championship.  Defending champ, Alexi, finished in 19th place with 110 points.

Primm takes the $27 pot here, and clinches an additional $72 for the overall title.

Big Ten Conference

Gersh and Scoot are Nearly Perfect in the Big Ten

If Indiana had beaten Wisconsin in the quarters, Gersh and Scoot would have been perfect in Indianapolis.  Even so, they took home 285 points from this conference.  Defending champion, Primm, had just 125.

Gersh earned himself $27 for the excellent Big Ten picks.

Southeastern Conference

Mac Sets Single-Conference Record with 405 SEC Points

The only game Mac missed was the very first one, when LSU beat Arkansas.  Other than that, he was perfect, netting him 405 – a CTC record for a single conference.  Rikey, who completed a perfect SEC bracket last year en route to a dramatic overall win, had just 100 points this year, good for 19th place.

Doogan and Primm had 315, which was just enough to hold off RDoc and split the pot – $13.50 each.

Money Division Recap

Primm’s Overall Title Leads the Way, While Gross and Dave Also Finish in the Black

  1. Primm – $102
  2. Gross – $32.35
  3. Dave – $9.75
  4. Bry – ($0.75)
  5. Gersh – ($10.50)
  6. RDoc – ($15.00)
  7. Doogan – ($24.00)
  8. Rikey – ($45.00)
  9. J – ($48.75)
Posted in conf tourney challenge, Conference Tourney Challenge | Tagged | Leave a comment