Should the Sixers trade Andre Iguodala and Sam Dalembert for Amare Stoudemire?
Question of the Day
Posted in Questions of the Day
Tagged amare stoudemire, andre iguodala, NBA, sam dalembert, sixers, suns
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Charting A Course to March: Games for Saturday, 2/6
There will be must-see games early next week, but before then, let’s take a look at three more Saturday games worth catching this week.
#2 Villanova at #8 Georgetown, 12:00 on ESPN
It was a somewhat odd win for Georgetown over Duke this past Saturday. Their Big Three of Greg Monroe, Austin Freeman, and Chris Wright came up big, each scoring 20+ points in the 89-77 victory. But the crazy stat from the game is that the Hoyas shot a ridiculous 72% from the field in the game. They’ve definitely been an efficient offensive team, and Duke isn’t an amazing defensive team, but you just don’t shoot 72% very often, and when you do, you would actually hope to win by more than 12 points. Still, it was an impressive win, but they had a letdown on Wednesday night with a loss to South Florida, who is under-rated, but a team G-Town should handle at home if they have Final Four aspirations. We’ll learn more about them when they welcome Villanova to town.
Nova suddenly finds itself as the 2nd-ranked team in the nation, staring at a possible #1 seed in the NCAA tournament, and considering the way #1-ranked teams have been dropping, it wouldn’t be too surprising to see them reach the top pretty soon. But to do that they’ll have to win two brutal road games in a row, with a trip to Morgantown to play West Virginia following this game.
This Nova team is pretty typical of what we’ve come to expect from them during the Jay Wright era. At first glance, the frontcourt doesn’t appear to have what it takes to be a national power, but Wright’s system seems to work best when he has a talented, versatile, and deep group of guards, and they certainly have that this year.
Of course, the big name with Nova is Scottie Reynolds, who has taken another big step with his game this year. Reynolds burst onto the scene in the second-half of his freshman year, putting up a bunch of big scoring games. At that point, though, he was basically just a gunner. It was hard to imagine that three years later he’d be shooting just under 50% from the field, and still averaging 18.5 points/game.
Since steady senior swingman Reggie Redding made his season debut (following an injury), Nova is 11-0. He’s a strong glue-guy and team leader that brings a lot to the defensive end. Their gang of guards also includes returnees Corey Fisher and Corey Stokes, as well as standout freshman Maalik Wayns. Finally, there’s a lot of pressure on forward Antonio Pena to hold his own down low and give them some inside scoring. He’s responded with a big season thus far.
#17 Temple at Richmond, 2:00 on ESPNU
Temple, the only team to beat Nova so far, followed their first loss in conference play last week with two straight easy wins and are hopefully 
prepared for two tough ones against Richmond and Rhode Island. Juan Fernandez has mysteriously disappeared from the offense over the last few games, and they’ll need him to get it going again if they want to win these next two. Are the Owls a team that can make some noise in March? It’s road games like this that hold the answer.
As for Richmond, I haven’t seen them play. I do know that they have a legitimate shot at making the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2004, thanks to quality wins over Florida, Missouri, Mississippi State, and Old Dominion. They feature a veteran starting line-up, with five upperclassmen, all of whom have played significant minutes throughout their careers. One of those starters is Delaware County native (and Springfield High graduate) Dan Geriot. Their leading scorer is guard Kevin Anderson, at 17 a game. One last fun fact about Richmond: they are the only team in college hoops history to win NCAA tournament games as a 12, 13, 14, and 15 seed. If they can win this game, they’ll be well on their way to a return to the Dance, and they could very well have a better seed than any of those listed above.
#13 Gonzaga at Memphis, 4:00 on ESPN2
This is gut-check time for Gonzaga, as their seeding in the Dance could very well be decided by how they play in the next week. They’re coming off a rare conference loss (their second in the last three seasons) to San Francisco, and they’ll get a 
solid Portland team on Thursday night, followed by Memphis on Saturday and the always-tough Saint Mary’s next Thursday. The Zags have a bunch of nice wins on their resume (Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Illinois, Oklahoma, as well as Portland and Saint Mary’s in their previous meetings), but playing in a small conference, they never have much room for error.
Matt Bouldin and Steven Gray form one of the better guard tandems in the country. And it looks like Coach Mark Few and company have found the next great Gonzaga player, as freshman forward Elias Harris has kind of come out of nowhere (actually Germany) and has been amazing. Over their last 10 games, Harris is averaging 20 points and 10 rebounds. He’s a springy 6-7, and he’s also hit 13 of his 28 3-point attempts on the year. But, all in all, this team is not nearly as deep as last year’s team, which couldn’t get past the Sweet 16, though they did run into that juggernaut North Carolina team.
As for Memphis, they could really use a win here to bolster their chances of making the Field of 64, but they are solid and the Pyramid is a tough place to play. They are led by Duke transfer Eliot Williams and his 20 points/game.
Jack-O vs. THE DIX: The Preview
I don’t really like fantasy football. I have only played it once since college, and I don’t really enjoy it that much. But, there is one part of fantasy football that has kept me entertained for about a decade now. One of BSB’s most loyal participants, Waters, has, for about 10 years now, formed a fantasy football team in a public league called “THE DIX,” and they are completely constituted of players named Johnson. And, surprisingly, they have actually won a fair number of games, even making a serious playoff push one year, when Brad was still in the league, and Larry, Rudi, and the former team member, Chad, were in their primes. THE DIX continue to be successful, as they have replaced the traitor, Chad, and the retiree Rudi with stars, such as Andre, Calvin, and Chris. In fact, the team has now become so stacked that it doesn’t look like Waters will even be able to field the team because there is no way that he will be able to get them all in a fair draft. But, have no fear, THE DIX will continue on because they now have a Washington Generals to face their Harlem Globetrotter dominance–Jack-O.
This year, I have laid down the challenge to THE DIX with Jack-O, a team formed of all Jacksons. In fact, it looks like there are going to be several challengers, as Doogan has decided to throw Jonesin’ into the mix, and J is going to enter his team, The Smiths. The specifics of the league have not been ironed out, and we are eons away from fantasy football season, but this post is going to be a quick preview of the exciting inaugural 2010 season of Jack-O vs. THE DIX.
THE DIX
- QB = Ever since Brad and Rob retired, quarterback has been an Achilles’ Heel for THE DIX, and the 2010 season probably won’t be much different. As of now, THE DIX only have one quarterback, Josh, but he’s not a terrible guy to have because there is a chance that he gets some playing time.
- RB = 2009 was a HUGE year for THE DIX, as they picked up a superstar at RB, to replace the aging Larry and the retired Rudi. Chris may have become the best player in fantasy football, and he is a tried-and-true member of THE DIX. Other than Chris, there is still Larry, who will probably go down into THE DIX Hall of Fame, but his days of dominance are probably behind him. Still, he’s not a terrible #2. They also Cincinnati fullback, Jeremi, who doesn’t really get any carries, but at least he plays.
- WR = This is where THE DIX have always shined, starting with their founding member, Keyshawn, then into the years of Chad (before his traitorous name-change), and now into the hay-days of Andre and Calvin. After the big two, there isn’t much there, but those two are pretty fantastic.
- TE = If Kevin Boss ever goes down with an injury for the Giants, their backup tight end goes by the name of David Johnson.
Jack-O
- QB = Everyone is talking about the implications to the Vikings and the league, as a whole, with the Brett Favre decision to play or not to play. But, really, the biggest implications (and the impetus for this way-too-early preview) fall upon Jack-O. If Favre does decide to hang them up, and the Vikings are unable to get another veteran QB, they are highly likely to turn over the reins to Tavaris Jackson, which would give Jack-O a bonafied quarterback in a league that will be as quarterback-deprived in 2010 as the NFC West will be.
- RB = Jack-O is short on quantity at every position, but they have a lot of quality. Running back is no exception. Steven is one of the keys to the season, as he is a superstar, but they also have up-and-coming Fred in Buffalo, and talented Brandon in Green Bay.
- WR = Again, quantity is the issue, as Jack-O currently has only two WRs on its roster, but those two have as much quality as any you will find anywhere–Vincent in San Diego and DeSean in Philly.
- TE = Jack-O is furiously scouting the draft board for a possible tight end because right now, they have none.
The Smiths
- QB = The Smiths will probably enter 2010 in the best position, quarterback-wise, as Alex seems to have emerged as the starter in San Fran. And, there is also a fallback plan for The Smiths at QB because if Joe Flacco ever goes down in Baltimore, Troy Smith will become the Ravens starting QB.
- RB = Running back is the biggest question mark for the 2010 Smiths. Detroit’s Kevin is easily their most accomplished. The only other contributor might possibly be Kolby (KC), but he may be on the practice squad again. There is no truth to the rumor that they have contacted Emmett, Antwawn, or Robert in attempts to woo them out of retirement.
- WR = With Steve on one side and Steve on the other, The Smiths should have a decent receiving corps. It is nowhere near as talented as THE DIX or Jack-O, but the two Steves should be very productive.
- TE = The Smiths at tight ends feature a current underachieving Eagles tight end and a former underachieving Eagles tight end, with Alex and L.J., respectively.
Jonesin’
- QB = Jonesin’ is currently without a quarterback, so they are hoping one materializes in April’s draft.
- RB = But, what they are lacking at QB, they might just make up for in the running back department. Easily, the best RB corps in the league, Jonesin’ features Maurice (it is undecided whether he will be awarded full points to Jonesin’ or half of his points going to Team Drew), Thomas, Julius, and Felix. They also have Kevin in Chicago and Greg in Jacksonville, who are not completely worthless.
- WR = A receiving corps that is probably overlooked, but still somewhat solid, features Green Bay’s James, Houston’s Jacoby, and San Fran’s Brandon. And, who knows, maybe Matt will get clean one day and come back to the NFL.
- TE = The only current tight end on the roster is a Baltimore Raven that I don’t think John Harbaugh has even heard of–Edgar Jones.
Tagged fantasy football, NFL
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Charting A Course to March: 3 Games to Watch on Saturday
The NFL season is down to its final game and on Monday the calendar will flip to February, which means it’s about time for all of you fair-weather college basketball fans out there to start paying attention so you can sound like you know what you’re talking about by March. I plan to be here to help by alerting you to some of the upcoming games you should be watching.
For the rest of the season, just about every Saturday will be chock full of games worth watching, and this Saturday is no exception. It’s going to be a frigid day too, so whip up some hot cocoa and kick back on the sofa to get a belated start on your ’09-’10 college hoops education. And keep checking back for more of these updates and watching the games. By the time Selection Sunday rolls around, you’ll be smoothly saying things like, “Syracuse’s length on defense reminds me of their ’03 title team; they have a shot at this thing.”
Three Games to Watch on Saturday, January 30th:
#7 Duke at #11 Georgetown, 1:00 on CBS
Unlike the two games below, this game does not feature a front-runner in the national championship race, but it does feature two storied programs that could play a key role in your NCAA bracket victory, even if you won’t be penciling them into the Final Four.
Over the past eight seasons, Duke always sits in the Top 10 for most of the season (with the exception of ’07 when they were mostly unranked), but can’t get past the Sweet 16 in March (with the exception of a Final Four appearance in ’04). So the annual question has become, are the Dukies for real this year? Despite a #7 ranking this week, a 17-3 record, and a trio of exceptional college players on the roster, the answer appears to be ‘no’, yet again.
First, let me give myself a little pat on the back for saying in November that Jon Scheyer was maybe the best player on the team, not Kyle Singler. Scheyer has had a monster senior season and has supplanted Singler as Duke’s National Player of the Year candidate. At the same time, allow me to place my foot in my mouth for proclaiming that Nolan Smith was a ‘question mark’. All Smith has done is average 18 points a game, shooting 47% from the field and 48% from 3, while playing lock-down defense on the perimeter. The bottom line though, is that, while the big men are improved from last year, they’re still not good enough. If things break right for Duke, they could end up in the Final Four, but it doesn’t look like the Big Three will have enough help to get them there.
As for Georgetown, I must say that I haven’t see them as much as I should have so far. Most of their publicity goes to sophomore center Greg Monroe, and rightfully so with his averages of 15 points and 10 boards. But I got my first good look at the Hoyas during their loss on Monday night against Syracuse and he was virtually non-existent. But he has had some huge games against top competition, including 29/16 against Villanova and 24/15 against Butler. For me, the player that makes Georgetown go is veteran guard Austin Freeman, who has really found his shooting stroke after struggling from the outside last season. He’s a smart player and a solidly built 2-guard. Finally, junior Chris Wright is perhaps second only to Scottie Reynolds among Big East point guards.
#23 Vanderbilt at #1 Kentucky, 4:00 on ESPN
Everyone will have plenty of opportunities to see Kentucky, as just about every one of their games has been televised nationally, but this will be their first game following their first loss of the season, and it will be against a talented Vanderbilt team. What do we make of this Kentucky team? First off, as I said a while ago, a loss was one of the best things that could happen to them. I’m not a believer that it’s always good for teams to have a loss before post-season play, but when 3 of your top 4 players are freshmen, I think it’s a great thing. Without a loss, it’s really hard to get these freshmen to keep practicing hard and to bring their A games every time out.
Also worth mentioning is that, considering the disappearance of North Carolina and the disappointing showing so far from UConn, Kentucky really doesn’t have any “marquee” wins. We really haven’t seen these young kids match up with any of the top teams in the country and we won’t, at least until the NCAA tournament. They clearly have the physical ability to play with anyone, but do they have it mentally?
Aside from the brilliant John Wall, track the continued development of freshmen DeMarcus Cousins and Eric Bledsoe. At the beginning of the year they looked like future lottery picks, and it’s looking more and more like that “future” could be in about 5 months.
I saw Vandy play for the first time on Wednesday night, when they picked up their best win of the year so far (at Tennessee) and improved to 5-0 in the SEC. Their standout players against Tennessee were senior guard Jermaine Beal, with 25 points, and 6-11 Australian center A.J. Ogilvy, who showed shot-blocking ability and a soft touch. Their leading scorer is swing-man Jeffery Taylor.
#2 Kansas at #13 Kansas St., 7:00 on ESPN
Obviously this is a major in-state rivalry game and the fans in Manhattan, Kansas will be giving a loud welcome to the Jayhawks. Kansas, who would move back into the #1 spot with a win here, will have their hands full with the upstart Wildcats of K-State. Kansas has recovered well from their first loss of the season, winning 5 straight and blowing out solid teams in their last two games. K-State had a let-down loss to Oklahoma St. following their defeat of then-#1 Texas last week, but they came right back with a very nice win at Baylor, who will most likely be a tournament team as well.
The excitement in this game may very well come from two diminutive guards that can really score: Sherron Collins and Jacob Pullen. Collins, well-known to hoops fans at this point, is a leader and a big-game player that will surely have the ball in his hands if the game is close late. Pullen is one of the better guards in the country that most people don’t know about. He was a role player a couple years ago when K-State was thrust into the national spotlight thanks to fellow freshman Michael Beasley. Now Pullen is the Man in Manhattan, averaging nearly 20 points a game for the season.
The Jayhawk’s star freshman guard, Xavier Henry, has seen his production decrease as the season goes on after a red-hot start to the season, but two frontcourt players have been picking up the slack. Preseason All-American center Cole Aldrich has had two straight nice games and will have a definite size advantage against the K-State big men. Meanwhile, Philly native Marcus Morris has become something of an X-factor, breaking out to average nearly 20 points and 8 boards over the last five games. Finally, keep track of Tyshawn Taylor, a starter as a freshman last year, who has mentioned transferring because his minutes have been cut in favor of Brady Morningstar and Tyrel Reed.
For K-State, Pullen is joined in the backcourt by another small-ish guard, Denis Clemente, a tough and quick fifth-year senior who transferred in from Miami last year, and who just happens to be a second cousin of the great Roberto Clemente.
Posted in Charting a Course to March, College Hoops
Tagged a.j. ogilvy, austin freeman, chris wright, cole aldrich, demarcus cousins, denis clemente, duke, eric bledsoe, georgetown, greg monroe, jacob pullen, jermaine beal, john wall, jon scheyer, kansas, kansas st., kentucky, kyle singler, marcus morris, nolan smith, sherron collins, vanderbilt, xavier henry
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Well Said, Jim
As a guy whose passion is baseball and occupation is quantitative analysis, you would think that I would be head-over-heels in love with Sabermetrics. Now, I do like it. But, there is just so much complexity for the sheer sake of being complex involved in what we know, today, as “Sabermetrics,” that I find myself turned off by VORP and OPS for sheer fact that sabermetrics have become so elitist, without really grasping what they are trying to accomplish. And, the two things that I always point to when making this point is the immediacy of the sabermatrician to scoff at statistics like Runs Scored for hitters and Wins for pitchers. Ask your typical sabermatrician how (s)he values the Run Scored or Win and you will probably get an elitist answer marginalizing these stats that, quite simply, measure the desired end results of all their overly-complex (and, oftentimes, mathematically foolish, like the OPS) statistics.
Jim Caple, in his column on ESPN.com, eloquently defends the Run as the most underappreciated offensive statistic in baseball, and I could not agree more. Now, if only someone had the cajones to do the same for the Win (the anathema of the Sabermetric statistical community), I would be overjoyed.
NOTE: Maybe one day, I’ll get fired up enough to put in a long post about my true feelings about Sabermetrics and the “Statistical Revolution” that has overtaken baseball in the early stages of the game’s third century…
Tagged jim caple, MLB, sabermetrics
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BSB Question of the Day
Okay, well, is Shane Victorino worth $22 million over 3 years?
BSB Question of the Day
Is Joe Blanton worth $24 million over the next 3 years?
Two Rounds in the Books in Melbourne
Well, the first two round of the 2010 major tennis season have been completed and it is shaping up to be another great season on the men’s tour. Let’s take a look at the goings-on in Melbourne so far with a bit of a third-round preview and then more of a look-ahead to this weekend’s Round of 16, as we will pick the 8 players that we think we still be standing after the next two rounds of play.
Federer Bracket – Top
(1) Roger Federer vs. (31) Albert Montanes
Federer, who is still working on one of the most amazing streaks in sports (21 straight Grand Slam semifinals), just does not lose early in a major. He did, interestingly enough, drop his first set of this tournament to a rather tough unseeded player, Igor Andreev, but then turned it on and won in 4. He then swept right through Victor Hanescu in the Second Round. Federer’s third round opponent, Albert Montanes, won in a walkover in Round 1, but needed all of five sets in Round 2 to knock off Frenchman Stephane Robert. Montanes, not commonly a seeded player, now has the biggest match of his life against Federer in the Third Round.
(22) Lleyton Hewitt vs. Marcos Baghdatis
Probably the Third Round match that we here at BSB are most looking forward to. Not only does it involve the great Lleyton Hewitt (my favorite all-time tennis player), but it also involves one of the most charismatic and charming players of our generation, the Cyprian Marcos Baghdatis. Baghdatis, after dispatching Paolo Lorenzi in straights in the First Round, got here with an epic 5-set win in the Second Round over 17-seeded David Ferrer (another BSB favorite, by the way). Lleyton, on the other hand, had a couple of easy victories along the way, crushing Ricardo Hochevar in the First Round and knocking off young American Donald Young in straight sets in the Second Round. Hewitt is playing great tennis in front of an adoring fan base, but Baghdatis is tough to beat anywhere. This one is must-see tennis.
BSB’s Prediction
Clearly, we are going to take Federer to handle Montanes in straight sets in the first matchup of this part of the draw, but the other one is a bit tougher to predict. We are going to go with Hewitt because, well, how could I not pick him? But, with some objectivity, I would say that the 5-set marathon with Ferrer probably has the aching Baghdatis a bit fatigued. We will take Hewitt in a black-and-blue 4-set war. And, if Baghdatis brings his A-game, Hewitt will need everything in his tank, which will probably leave him without the necessary ammunition against the World’s #1. Not to mention that Federer has absolutely owned Hewitt for many years now, so we are going to take Federer over Hewitt in 4 sets.
BSB NFL Playoff Challenge: The Divisional Round Recap & Title Scenarios
Well, three home teams won this weekend, with the only surviving team from the Wild Card Round being…the Jets?!?!? The Chargers loss to the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets did throw a wrench in the works of the Challenge this year. All in all, O’Neill wins the round and puts himself in a position to possibly win the whole thing. Josh and David also have big rounds, but Josh’s first round was slightly better and they have similar picks moving forward, so Josh is in a very good position to win the whole thing, while David is in a good position to finish second, but can’t win it. Alexi had a nice recovery from a rough Wild Card round, but his title hopes have been dashed. Scott also had a nice weekend, but he, too, is eliminated from title contention. Waters, despite a tough weekend, is still alive to possibly split the title. Doogan lost his cash cow, Arizona and, therefore, his dreams of winning the first BSB NFL Playoff Challenge. And, Bry and Ina both got hammered this weekend (oh, and we did poorly in this Challenge, too), so they are both out of the running.
THIS ROUND:
O’Neill – 36
Josh – 35
David – 34
Alexi – 32
Scott – 31
Waters – 27
Doogan – 25
Bry – 24
Ina – 23
OVERALL:
Josh – 145
Waters – 143
David – 141
O’Neill – 141
Scott – 131
Alexi – 131
Doogan – 118
Bry – 111
Ina – 110
TITLE SCENARIOS:
Now, with 4 teams left, there are only 8 possible scenarios for this weekend. And, there is a chance that the Challenge title is clinched before the Super Bowl.
If Indianapolis wins the Super Bowl: Josh wins the Challenge
If the N.Y. Jets win the Super Bowl: Josh wins the Challenge
If Minnesota wins the Super Bowl: O’Neill wins the Challenge
If New Orleans beats Indianapolis in the Super Bowl: Josh wins the Challenge
If New Orleans beats the N.Y. Jets in the Super Bowl: Josh and Waters tie for Challenge title
This means that Josh can clinch the Challenge title this weekend if the two home teams win.
BSB NFL Playoff Challenge: Divisional Round Preview
Nine contestents started the BSB NFL Playoff Challenge, but after the Wild Card Weekend’s action, only seven remain with a possibility of winning the whole thing. But, surprisingly, it is not the two with the lowest point totals who have been eliminated from title contention. As we ran down earlier in the week in a post of all the scenarios for the challenge, Alexi, O’Neill, and Scott, who had the three lowest point totals after the first round, are still alive to win the whole thing, if things break the right way for them.
Anyway, it’s not just first place that we’re all playing for, so let’s preview the Divisional Round games and how they impact all nine entries. We have listed below the impacts of each game.
Then, we listed each entry and their best possible scores for this round (strictly by points, not in relation to others) and their best possible final scores. Then, we put a figure called percent chance of winning, which was calculated by the number of different scenarios that has that entry holding at least a share of the lead at the end. However, this number has to be taken with the caveat that it was done under the assumption that every game from here on out is 50-50 between the two victors (in other words, the assumption is that a New Orleans-Indy Super Bowl is just as likely as a Jets-Cards). Any given Sunday, right?
We start with each game, listing, in order, which entries will be most affected.
Arizona at New Orleans:
10 O’Neill (NO 11 – Zona 1)
9 Alexi (NO 12 – Zona 3)
8 David (NO 11 – Zona 3)
8 Josh (NO 11 – Zona 3)
7 Waters (NO 12 – Zona 5)
6 Ina (NO 8 – Zona 2)
6 Scott (NO 10 – Zona 4)
5 Bry (NO 7 – Zona 2)
1 Doogan (NO 8 – Zona 7)
Baltimore at Indianapolis:
10 David (Indy 12 – B’more 2)
10 Scott (Indy 12 – B’more 2)
10 Josh (Indy 12 – B’more 2)
9 Doogan (Indy 12 – B’more 3)
9 O’Neill (Indy 12 – B’more 3)
7 Ina (Indy 11 – B’more 4)
7 Alexi (Indy 8 – B’more 1)
5 Bry (Indy 11 – B’more 6)
2 Waters (Indy 10 – B’more 8 )
Dallas at Minnesota:
9 Bry (Dallas 10 – Minn 1)
7 Ina (Dallas 10 – Minn 3)
6 Doogan (Dallas 10 – Minn 4)
6 Waters (Dallas 7 – Minn 1)
5 Alexi (Minn 10 – Dallas 5)
3 Josh (Dallas 10 – Minn 7)
2 O’Neill (Minn 8 – Dallas 6)
1 David (Dallas 7 – Minn 6)
1 Scott (Minn 9 – Dallas 8 )
N.Y. Jets at San Diego:
11 Ina (SD 12 – Jets 1)
10 Doogan (SD 11 – Jets 1)
10 Scott (SD 11 – Jets 1)
9 Alexi (SD 11 – Jets 2)
7 Waters (SD 11 – Jets 4)
7 Bry (SD 12 – Jets 5)
5 David (SD 10 – Jets 5)
5 O’Neill (SD 10 – Jets 5)
4 Josh (SD 9 – Jets 5)
Waters:
First Place, 24 points
Best Possible After Divisional Round: 64
Best Possible Final Score: 158
Percent Chance of Winning: 35%
Thoughts:
Waters not only won the Wild Card round, but he is has the most title chances. If New Orleans wins the Super Bowl, there is only one way for him not to win. If Baltimore wins the Super Bowl, there is no way he will not win. But, he does have one land mine to avoid out there–Minnesota. He gave them a 1, so if they advance, he could lose a lot of ground. With Baltimore at 8, he is actually much better off if they knock off the Colts, even though he has 10 points in the Colts.
Bry:
Second Place, 23 points
Best Possible After Divisional Round: 63
Best Possible Final Score: 155
Percent Chance of Winning: 13%
Thoughts:
Bry’s title chances are almost exclusively limited to Super Bowl titles by either San Diego or Dallas with other factors. However, he does have a couple fluke scenarios where he would win with a Jets Super Bowl title. This week, Bry, like Waters, desperately needs to avoid a Minnesota victory. He also has New Orleans rather low, so even though he has nothing invested in the Cardinals, an Arizona victory might not be such a bad thing for his entry. He’s also looking for a B’more upset because he has them at 6.
Doogan:
Third Place, 21 points
Best Possible After Divisional Round: 62
Best Possible Final Score: 154
Percent Chance of Winning: 21%
Thoughts:
As we knew from the very beginning, Doogan’s chances are completely dependent on the Cardinals. There are only two possible scenarios of Doogan winning it all without a Cards win this week (a tie with Josh if Dallas and Indy meet in the SB after beating NO and SD in the Championship Games). So, Doogan’s fate lies in the Cardinals.
Josh:
Fourth Place, 20 points
Best Possible After Divisional Round: 62
Best Possible Final Score: 156
Percent Chance of Winning: 21%
Thoughts:
Josh is actually in a pretty good position to win this thing. He netted enough points in the first round and put enough faith in the top seeds, so that he will be the one standing if the top seeds advance. He still has his top four point totals still alive, and none of them play each other, so if it goes his way (which would only require the home teams to win except for Dallas), he will have 9, 10, 11, and 12 left in the final four.
Ina:
Fifth Place (tie), 17 points
Best Possible After Divisional Round: 58
Best Possible Final Score: 150
Percent Chance of Winning: 0%
Thoughts:
Ina had a decent performance and will probably finish pretty high, but has been mathematically eliminated from title contention. She has the biggest possible single-game implication this week with her 12-team, SD, playing her 1-team, NYJ. She does have some big swings in the other games, as well, so this is a big week for Ina.
David:
Fifth Place (tie), 17 points
Best Possible After Divisional Round: 57
Best Possible Final Score: 151
Percent Chance of Winning: 0%
Thoughts:
David, like Ina, is mathematically eliminated, even though he had a decent week. The big game for him this week is Indy (12) vs. B’more (2). David should be able to finish pretty high, but he will not be the first BSB NFL Playoff Challenge Champion.
Scott:
Seventh Place, 16 points
Best Possible After Divisional Round: 58
Best Possible Final Score: 150
Percent Chance of Winning: 6%
Thoughts:
Scott has one of those well-rounded entries, where he’s in play with a variety of combinations. Scott, like Josh, has his top four point totals all still alive and not playing one another this week. Like Josh, if Dallas wins in Minnesota and the other home teams win, his final four will be his top four teams.
O’Neill:
Eighth Place, 15 points
Best Possible After Divisional Round: 56
Best Possible Final Score: 150
Percent Chance of Winning: 4%
Thoughts:
O’Neill, despite a difficult first round, is still alive to win this thing. However, all his eggs have now been put in the Minnesota basket. If the Vikings fall this week, O’Neill’s title hopes will be gone. He also needs a New Orleans win this week because he has Arizona at 1.
Alexi:
Ninth Place, 11 points
Best Possible After Divisional Round: 52
Best Possible Final Score: 146
Percent Chance of Winning: 8.6%
Thoughts:
And, in the most interesting situation, Alexi, who had only one point more than the lowest mathematically possible score in the first round, still has a chance to win the whole thing. And, the chances are not all that remote, either. And, what is even more interesting is that Alexi (a die-hard Ravens fan who obviously had no confidence in the home team) is now actually counting on the Ravens, the team to which he gave a 1. This is because he only had the Colts at 8, while seven other entries had them at 11 or 12 and the other had them 10. So, a Colts loss would be huge for Alexi’s title chances, even though it means his 1-team advances. He also needs Minnesota to go to the Super Bowl to win, and all his title scenarios but one have the Vikes winning it all. So, obviously, with a bad Wild Card performance, Alexi needs a lot to break his way, but it’s not at all out of the question that he will pull off a miraculous comeback to win this thing.
