Cimorelli’s Question of the Day

Let’s say, hypothetically, you can afford to spend $100,000 on a new car, would you:

(a) buy a $100,000 car for $100,000

OR

(b) buy an $80,000 car for $40,000 ?

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My, How the Times Have Changed

cliff leeUntil this season, if you said the words “Phillies” and “deadline deals” to me, it did not invoke good memories.  Throughout my lifetime, trade “deadline” has been an appropriate term for Phillie fans, because it’s often been the signal that our season is, in fact, dead.  Not that I was the biggest fan of Scott Rolen or Curt Schilling, but suffice it to say that I was even much less of a fan of Bud Smith and Trevor Lee.  Even as recently as 2006, Bobby Abreu was shipped off to the Yankees. 

While the team may have gone out and added a Kyle Lohse here or a Corey Lidle there to solidify the team for a possible late-season run, they were never the ones pulling in the names that lead on SportsCenter.  Until Wednesday.  Funny how winning a championship can change things.  Cliff Lee is just a season removed from a Cy Young Award, and he may just make the Phillies the most purely talented team in baseball.  This is the first time in my life that I’ve been able to make that statement.

Other Comments on the Deal:

-Hats off to Ruben Amaro.  As Jayson Stark wrote the other day, he was in an extremely tough position as this deadline approached, and he handled it beautifully.  While a piece of my heart will always belong to Roy Halladay, if you can land a Cy Young winner in his prime without giving up any of your top 3 prospects or any major-league talent, you deserve a lot of credit.  Between this deal and the way the Ibanez signing has worked out, Amaro has to be feeling pretty good right now. 

-Hats off, one last time, to Mike Arbuckle, the former director of player development that departed after he was passed over for the GM job in favor of Amaro.  Amaro acquiring Lee without giving up a top-3 prospect is impressive, but it was only possible because of the job Arbuckle did in making sure the farm system was so well-stocked.  The Phils gave up four good looking prospects in the deal, but the minor-league cupboard is still far from bare.

-Lee’s stats will be much discussed in the coming days, but here’s my favorite:  in 223 innings last year he gave up 12 home runs.  That’s the kind of pitcher you need at the Bank.

-I don’t know much about Ben Francisco, but he looks like a nice addition to the bench.  He plays all three outfield positions, has decent pop, and he already has 13 stolen bases this year, so he brings some speed to the bench as well, which the Phillies need.  Also, it looks like he must have played at least one season of college ball with Chase Utley, as he was a 2002 pick out of UCLA, and Chase was taken in 2000. 

-Suddenly, the Phillies have a surplus of starting pitchers, with seven: Hamels, Lee, Happ, Blanton, Moyer, Rodrigo Lopez, and Pedro when he comes back from the injury.  It will be interesting to see who end up as the odd men out.  Lopez is the first obvious choice, but he’s pitched really well.  Moyer is also a candidate to be bumped from the rotation, but that would be tough to do to the 46-year-old, and he wouldn’t really have any value coming out of the pen.  These things tend to work themselves out with injuries or ineffectiveness, but there could be some bruised egos before it’s all said and done.  In the end, of course, it’s a good problem for the team to have, and the four best guys will emerge as the eventual playoff rotation.  It also might be worth moving Lopez in a trade.  He must have at least some value right now, and it doesn’t seem like we have a place for him.  In the meantime, Phillie fans will be anxiously waiting to see when the team manages to squeeze Lee into the rotation for his first start.

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Quick Pitch

Gotta say that if the Phils can land a Cy Young pitcher without giving up Drabek, Happ, Brown, Taylor, or Knapp, then that’s a steal, in my book.  If they only have to give up Donald (not going to be very good and behind Rollins), Marson (probably going to be a decent ML’er), and Carrasco (who has flat-out stunk at AAA this year), then I love it.  In fact, I say F Halladay, or more appropriately, F RICCIARDI, have fun losing for the next decade, hoser.

UPDATE:  Done deal.  Jason Knapp, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, and Lou Marson FOR Cliff Lee and right-handed OF Ben Francisco.  Fantastic deal!  Nice work, Ruben

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Cimorelli’s Question of the Day

If Brett Myers comes back in two weeks, what role does he fill?

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Tuesday’s Top Twelve: Questions Facing the Birds on the Eve of Training Camp

I know that all we can think or talk about these days is Roy Halladay (ya, me too), but the Eagles started training camp yesterday, and let us not forget that this team is one of the clear favorites in the NFC this year.  It is a real testament to the Phils and what they have done that the city has almost forgotten about the Birds.  Any other year and Eagles training camp blows away the dog days of the Phillies summer.  But, with the combination of a title defense, a 6-game lead, and legit trade deadline drama, the Eagles are the city’s forgotten team.  I’m not complaining at all; I just want to put a little of this blog’s focus away from Halladay for a second and think football briefly.

So, here are the Top Twelve Questions Facing the Eagles This Season

12). What negative effects (if any) will the fact that Jeremy Maclin remains unsigned entering training camp have on the season?  Here on the morning of Day Two this is the #12 question.  If he remains unsigned on the morning of Day Ten, then maybe this question becomes higher on the list.  No matter what, any practice lost by a rookie wide receiver in a complicated offense is going to hurt his progression.  I think the answer to this will have just about everything to do with the answer to another question on this list, and I will give you a hint–it has something to do with guys named Curtis and Jackson.  I think that if the Eagles have to lean on Maclin in the early going, then that is a sign of a bigger problem and probably won’t be impacted by the time he misses or doesn’t miss in training camp.  Either way, I would like to see him sign a deal and get out on the field.

11). Did the Eagles hit any home runs in the later rounds?  Everyone is so excited about the Birds late-round picks.  Cornelius Ingram is a superior athlete at the tight end position.  Can he contribute?  “Macho” Harris is supposedly a phenomenal athlete who can play both corner and safety.  What will he bring to the team?  Apparently, there is an undrafted free agent, Marcus Mailei–a fullback from Weber St.–who has a legit shot at making this team (though, I’m not sure why they would need two fullbacks, considering they had none a year ago).  If either Ingram or Harris pan out and pay immediate dividends, then this draft may end up being one of the better drafts under Reid.

10). How much of an impact will having a true fullback have on the offense?  Honestly, if I were to handicap this question, I would say “a lot.”  Now, this is all dependent (as is pretty much everything) on the health of one star running back, but I really think that the running game (and the passing game, for that matter) was hampered by a clear lack of a fullback.  Leonard Weaver is a true, pure, in-your-face, blocking fullback.  He will run headfirst into the line and will sit back and protect McNabb in the passing game.

9). The receiving corps?  I think the fact that this question is only #9 says one of two things:  (1) the receiving issues that have plagued this team for a decade (save for one Super Bowl season) have at least subsided a bit, or (2) Yours Truly grossly overestimates the abilities of DeSean Jackson and Kevin Curtis.  I think Curtis is a pretty good #2 when healthy, and I think I am sold on Jackson.  This is never going to be the 49ers of the ’90’s, but with a healthy Westbrook as basically your #1 receiver, all of a sudden a Jackson and Curtis wideout pair looks pretty effective and productive.  And, I have learned not to count on anything from Jason Avant or Hank Baskett (which is good because we will probably get as much from them as we do from Greg Lewis, who is on the Patriots).

8). How good is this division?  As great as it is to puff out your chest to other teams’ fans and say “Yeah, but my team plays in the best division in football,” it still causes some issues.  A few slip-ups or a month without either Westbrook or McNabb and this division could eat us up and spit out a 7-9 or 8-8 team.  I still think Eli Manning has become the league’s most overrated quarterback (if anyone listens to the Football Today podcast on ESPN, you would have heard a disgustingly ridiculous debate about who is better Manning or Phillip Rivers–that’s like saying who is better Roy Oswalt or Joba Chamberlain, come on, people), but the Giants are still a serious contender.  The Cowboys may be a notch below, but still have immense talent.  And, the Redskins added the best defensive player in the league to a team that went 8-8 in the game’s best division last year.  The problem with playing the NFC Beast is that you are guaranteed six incredibly physical, emotional games every year, and because of that each of the four of us are just a bad call or a minor injury away from 8-8.

7). How will Sheldon Brown’s malcontentment affect the team?  I would like to think that the answer to this question is “not much,” but the question still needs to be asked.  In fact, maybe it should be reworded because I do not think that his malcontentment will affect the team, but if he ends up traded or sulking on the sidelines (a la Lito Sheppard) and the Eagles have to lean on the talented yet unpredictable Ellis Hobbs as its #2 corner, who knows what might happen when they bring the blitzes.  So, the question here really is–will Sheldon Brown play and play effectively, and if not, can Ellis Hobbs, et al, make up for the loss of a Pro Bowl corner?

6). Will this brand-new offensive line be as good as advertised?  On paper, this O-line looks ferocious.  We have already forgotten Thomas and Runyan because of Jason Peters and the Andrews brothers.  But, are we over-confident in this group?  Jason Peters did give up 11.5 sacks last year, according to the people who track these things.  Stacy Andrews gave up something like 9.5, and Shawn Andrews has never played tackle in the NFL.  So, two brand-new tackles and a new right guard.  It’s exciting, but a bit worrisome, at the same time.  Plus, think about this for a second.  The Birds have 6 games with the NFC East.  The Giants had, arguably, the best D-line in football last year without Osi Umenyiora.  The Redskins added the game’s premier defensive tackle to an already solid D-line.  And, the Cowboys have DeMarcus Ware–the NFL’s leader in sacks last year.  So…needless to say, a strong O-line in the NFC Beast is essential.

5). Can the Eagles finally score consistently in the red zone?  Last year, they set a franchise record in points scored (pretty unbelievable, if you think about it, because never once did I say to myself “Wow, this is an amazing offense!”), but they were 24th in points in the red zone.  That is incredibly alarming, if you ask me, because playoff games and big games down the stretch are won inside the 20’s.  This team has to score in the red zone to be effective.  And, I’m not too sure that they have addressed this problem.  Maybe Leonard Weaver will allow them to run on short-yardage and score from inside the 5.  Maybe Cornelius Ingram will blossom into the red zone threat that his size and athleticism dictate that he ought to be.  Maybe these things just even out and we’re making more of a big deal about it than it is worth.  Maybe…

4). Who is going to step up and fill the emotional vacuum left by Brian Dawkins?  This one is big, I think.  But, in swallowing my borderline man-crush on Brian Dawkins, I actually have complete trust in the Eagles brass to understand when to move on, no matter how crushing it may seem.  Granted, I think that they should have been a little more open to this one guy, but still, they were right on Troy Vincent, Bobby Taylor, Jeremiah Trotter and Michael Lewis.  So, because of that, I am not all that concerned with the on-the-field loss of the best free safety of his era.  What I am concerned with is the lockerroom loss of possibly the best leader of his era.  Where will the Eagles get leadership?  Where will they get emotion?  Who will become the ultimate go-to guy in the locker room and on the field?

3). Donovan McNabb?  Maybe.  Maybe, he will become the leader everyone always thought he should be.  Maybe, in his older age with his football mortality obvious, he will step up and be the step-on-your-throat kind of athlete that wins championships.  Maybe he will keep his (in)famous smile from Monday to Saturday, but on Sunday be a gladiator.  Regardless of his leadership, all I want from a quarterback that I have tirelessly defended is consistency.  At 32 years old, I just want Donovan McNabb to show up as a similar quarterback week-to-week.  I do not want anyone else under center for many years.  What I do want is the best of Donovan McNabb every week, and at this point in his career, that is not too much to ask for.

2). Is Brian Westbrook going to be healthy?  What role can LeSean McCoy play?  This is really question #1A because without Westbrook, this team is not anywhere near legitimate Super Bowl contention.  All indications are that he will be healthy, but for how long?  He will probably not play 16 games this year, but will it be closer to 10 or 14?  And, in those games without Westbrook, can LeSean McCoy carry the load?  Will he even know the offense?  Can he pick up blitzes in the NFL?  If Westbrook cannot play Week One, can LeSean McCoy lead the Eagles to victory right away?  Who knows.  That is the question.  Personally, I think it is borderline ridiculous that the Eagles have not signed Edgerrin James or Warrick Dunn or someone of that ilk to come into training camp.  Have we not learned from the last two years that you just cannot enter a season missing something?  Two years ago, the Birds entered the season without a punt returner and it cost them Week 1’s game against Green Bay.  Last year, they entered the season without a fullback–and they never truly recovered.  Is veteran running back what they won’t have this year?  This is especially mind-bloggling considering the fact that Westbrook is questionable to play Week One, and the only other backs are Lorenzo Booker and the rookie McCoy.  Now, I think think McCoy is going to be a fantastic back in this league, but right away?  And, I do, for some strange reason, have some belief in Lorenzo Booker, but there is nothing on which I can base that.  Warrick Dunn and Edge James are out there just waiting for a contract offer.  Go get one!

1). Just how important is Jim Johnson?  As important as Westbrook is–and he is of ultimate importance–there is no way that the Eagles would have had the success they had without Jim Johnson.  I would argue with anyone that Jimmy Johnson has been, by far, the most important factor in the decade-long success that the Eagles have had.  More than Andy Reid; more than McNabb; more than Westbrook; more than Dawkins.  Now, maybe Sean McDermott, who has been groomed for this job basically since he could walk and has trained under Johnson for several years, will be a great defensive coordinator, but there will never be another Jim Johnson.  Maybe this team will be just as prepared at kickoff (I doubt it because Johnson is one of the most innovative creators of the blitz the game has ever seen), but will McDermott be able to make the halftime adjustments for which Johnson is so famous?  I know it might be overstated, but it’s worth mentioning that one of the only two games that the Eagles defense failed to adjust last year (the other was Week Two against Dallas, but that was a crazy game with several defensive injuries) was the NFC Championship Game, where Johnson was NOT on the sidelines.  I am not saying that that is why, I’m just throwing it out there.  I think there is no doubt that the Eagles defensive coordinator position is the one position with the most question marks entering what could be a magical season for the Birds.

ps…I wrote this column before the news broke about the great Jim Johnson.  May he rest in peace…

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Cimorelli’s Question of the Day

How much of a downgrade from Halladay is Cliff Lee?

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Cimorelli’s Question of the Day

Since the Phils seem dug in to not give up both and the Blue Jays will surely demand AT LEAST one, who would you rather the Phils give up for Halladay:  Happ or Drabek?

Honestly, I’d give up Happ before Drabek in a heartbeat.  Happ’s value will never be higher than it is right now.  He is not projected to be any better than a middle-of-the-rotation guy, but his 7-0 (now 7-1) start has people quickly changing that projection.  After 12 starts?  Okay, well move him.

For the record, I think the Phillies WILL get this deal done, and I think the package will be Happ, Dominic Brown, Carlos Carrasco, and Jason Donald.  And, I am going to be ecstatic.

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Why Not?

Now that it is official, I guess it is time to weigh in on whether or not this makes sense for the Phillies.  My take:  sure, why not? 

As a professional budget analyst, I tend to look at everything as costs and benefits, so let us do that now for this signing.  First the potential “costs,” or negatives, associated with this signing:

  • Money 
    • The contract is a base of $1 million, with incentive clauses that could make it as high as $1.5 million.  The $1 million is pretty much the cost we should look out for, though, because if they end up paying $1.5 million that would mean that Pedro hit all his incentive clauses, and that would mean it was a great signing.
    • As long as this money doesn’t alter their shot at Halladay, which has been emphasized over and over again that it will not, who cares?  They are making money hand-over-fist because of the 37 sellouts and the merchadise sales that came from the title.  Granted, they probably assumed this increased income when they upped the payroll to $135 million in the offseason, but still, a million here or there should not affect this all-of-a-sudden big market club.
  • Clubhouse morale
    • I have heard this argument several times–that Pedro is not the type of guy who would fit into this hard-nosed, hard-working, quiet clubhouse because of his diva-ish personality.  I do not buy this one AT ALL.  Since when has a fifth-starter ever affected a clubhouse?  You have to have some on-field presence to have any impact on a clubhouse, so I think this is a non-issue.  Furthermore, if it seems like he is upsetting the morale, you cut him loose–no harm done, except a million bucks.
  • Relief innings
    • This is the one concern that I think is legitimate and ought to be taken into consideration.  He is probably not going to pitch more than 5 or 6 innings (on a good day), so every time he goes out there, the bullpen is going to take a beating.  And, as we have seen time and time again in this sport, exhausted bullpens often show up in September and October and they often sink entire seasons (see:  ’08 Mets, ’07 Mets, ’93 Phillies).
    • Then again, the 5-inning Pedro notion is based on last September after he had pitched for an entire season.  Who knows if this Pedro is rested and ready to go 7 strong innings every fifth day?  I am not saying I expect it or even that it wouldn’t shock me, all I’m saying is that it is a possibility.

So, the costs are rather small, if you think about it.  What about the benefits?

  • An experienced fifth-starter
    • In June and July, and maybe even August, it is perfectly fine to run out the Rodrigo Lopez’s and Antonio Bastardo’s of the world for spot starts or even temporary spots in the rotation.  But, when the games start to mean more than just random Major League Debuts, it is a very scary proposition to send these kids out there.  In Turner Field in mid-September, I would much rather see an experienced pitcher at the end of his career than an inexperienced one and the beginning of his.  If this signing has dividends, they will be realized in September and, dare I say it, October.
  • Lightning in a bottle
    • Who knows?  Maybe Pedro has his old stuff back.  He did look dominant in the WBC–albeit in relief appearances against The Netherlands.  He is a former Cy Young winner who will probably be enshrined in Cooperstown one day.  Maybe there is just enough left in the tank for 2 months (hell, even 2 starts) of shades of the old Pedro.  It may be far-fetched, but there it has to be considered a possibility.
  • His motivation
    • Pedro, for all of his flaws, has never lacked confidence and, certainly, never lacked pride.  In fact, I would argue that his over-developed sense of pride has actually been a detriment to him, at various points in his career.  But, right now, I love it.  I welcome it.  Be prideful, Pedro.  Show the other 29 teams that they are stupid for not signing you earlier.  Give the Pedro fans one last thrill.  But, specifically, and even more importantly…
    • Stick it to the Mets.  I have heard from various sources that Pedro was standing firm on his $5 million demand for every team out there…except the Phillies?  Why?  Because he is overcome with a desire to spurn the Mets for not resigning him.  Is it rational?  Of course not.  It is possible?  Of course it is–it is, after all, Pedro Martinez.  Would it surprise anyone if this were true?  Now, this, alone, is not going to get outs.  Honestly, my hatred for the Mets is probably right on par with Pedro’s, but I’m not out there striking out David Wright.  But, every little bit helps.  And, if Pedro just needs a little extra to fire him up and get us three September wins, then it was all worth it.

So, all in all, I say:  WHY NOT?

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Phillies Mid-Season Report Card

With the baseball season heading into the All-Star Break, it’s time to handout the mid-season grades for the Phillies as they make the turn and look to defend their title in the months ahead.  After a major rough patch in June, the Phils have turned it around in July, winning 8 of 9 after Saturday night’s miraculous 9th inning comeback against the Pirates.  Their division lead has been pushed to four games over Florida, with the rival Mets floundering back in 4th place, 6.5 games off the Phillie pace.

Note:  The grades take into account what was expected out of that position (i.e. it doesn’t take as much production for Pedro Feliz to produce a good grade as for Ryan Howard).

ruizCatcher:  C

Carlos Ruiz has been splitting time with Paul Bako lately, but his numbers are actually a good bit better than they were last year.  There’s been some debate over the past two seasons about what type of player Ruiz is, but I think it’s pretty clear: he’s a very good defensive player that can’t hit.  As long as the Phillies are as strong elsewhere in the line-up as they have been, he’s fine as your starting catcher, but he’s not making Lou Marson completely expendable.

First Base:  B

This grade could arguably be lower, as Ryan Howard’s numbers are not up to par with his career averages, but there are a few things to factor in.  First, even though he’s below his career averages, he’s still among the league leaders in home runs (22) and is third in the NL in RBI (66).  Second, his defense has been improved this season.  And the main reason he gets a B, is because his career numbers are WAY better after the All-Star break, so the fact that he’s basically treaded water through the first-half means that he may very well be about to explode and end up with 50 bombs.  That deep homer he hit hit to tie the game on Saturday may be a sign of things to come.

Second Base:  A

Mr. Chase Utley is on pace for career highs in a bunch of offensive categories and is a leading candidate for the MVP-NNP (Most Valuable Player Not Named Pujols) Award.  That reminds me: it’s been noted how amazing it is that the Phillies won back-to-back MVP awards and neither of them was by their best player.  It’s even more amazing that the Phillies  won back-to-back MVP’s while Pujols was in his prime.

Shortstop:  Drollins

The nightmare-ish season of Jimmy Rollins has been well-documented, but his Gold Glove defense keeps him above an F, and he’s been hot for the past week, so maybe he’s finally figured it out.

Third Base:  B

Pedro Feliz still hasn’t shown the power that the Phils thought they would get when they signed him before last season, but his .289 BA this year is well above his career average and he still has the sure-hands at the hot corner.

Left Field:  A-

The only reason Raul Ibanez doesn’t pick up an A here is because he missed 20 games with an injury.  He returned Saturday night and will look to continue his career-year and remain a candidate for that MVP-NNP.

Center Field:  B+

Shane Victorino has steadily improved offensively throughout his time as a Phillie, and that’s continued this year, as he’s currently hitting .314, ranking 2nd in the NL in hits, and will play in his first All-Star Game next week.  His abilities as a table-setter have been especially important with the struggles of Rollins.

werth victorinoRight Field:  B+

Much like Victorino, Jayson Werth has somewhat unexpectedly established himself as a very solid everyday outfielder in the big leagues.  Werth got off to a ho-hum start in the first couple months of this seasson, but he’s picked it up since then, especially over the past 10 days, and he’s also earned his first All-Star Game appearance.  Werth had career highs of 24 HR and 67 RBI last season, and he’s on pace to crush those numbers in ’09, with 20 HR and 56 RBI here in mid-July.  With the entire Phillie outfield heading to St. Louis for the All-Star Game, the unit collectively gets a solid “A”.  Pretty amazing for a team who’s power-house offense supposedly revolves around the infielders.

Bench:  B-

Greg Dobbs, who’s been hot for a while now after a horrid start, and Matt Stairs, who hit his 4th pinch-hit homer of the season on Saturday, are two guys that any team would love to have on their bench.  Beyond them, though, it gets a little dicey.  I’ve never been a fan of Eric Bruntlett, and his .139 BA in 72 AB this season isn’t making me change my mind.  The main issue for the bench is the continuing lack of a right-handed bat.  John Mayberry, Jr. has shown some raw power, but the operative word there is “raw”, as his .188 BA suggests.  If Mayberry doesn’t show something in the next 2-3 weeks, Ruben Amaro will be very tempted to add a veteran right-hander in his place at the trade deadline.

Starting Pitching:  D+

It’s mostly been a disaster for Phillies starters in ’09.  Besides losing Brett Myers for the season, Jamie Moyer has been awful and Cole Hamels has not really resembled the guy he was in October.  In case you forgot, those were the top 3 starters on the championship team last year.  But it hasn’t been a total loss.  J.A. Happ has been excellent all season, with an ERA hovering around 3.00, Joe Blanton has quietly rebounded from an abysmal start (7 quality starts in his last 9 games), and you can’t count out Hamels, even though he gave up 5 runs to the Pirates on Saturday, leaving his ERA at a somewhat shocking 4.87.  With Amaro exploring all options to add arms to the rotation, this D+ grade could look a lot different by the end of the season.

Bullpen:  B-lidge

It’s been mostly good news coming out of the Phillie bullpen, with one huge, glaring exception:  Brad Lidge.  After his perfect 2008,  Lidge has already blown 6 saves this season, despite a stint on the DL.  His ERA is still over 7, and he just hasn’t been the same pitcher.  If Lidge is not right, then the whole bullpen is a bit scary, but Ryan Madson and J.C. Romero still look like excellent set-up men, and Scott Eyre, Clay Condrey, and Chad Durbin have also been solid.

Overall Team Grade:  C+

Don’t get me wrong, I’m quite content to look at the standings right now and see the Phils with a 4-game lead in the division.  But they’ve been lucky that the division has been so (unexpectedly) bad, and they’re on pace for less wins than they had last year.  Five players will represent the team at the All-Star Game, but it’s telling that not one of them is a pitcher.  With the terrible performance of the starting pitchers, and Lidge at the back of the ‘pen, the dominant offense is only enough to pull the first-half grade up to a passing but unspectacular C+.

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Tuesday’s Top Twelve – Legacies of the Sports World

In the wake of a week of huge deaths in music, entertainment, and sports–Michael Jackson, Farah Fawcett, and Steve McNair–the idea of legacy has really hit me.  Furthermore, it is fascinatingly interesting to see the varying “size” of the story each of these deaths has become.  I am hard-pressed to think about anyone–with the possible exception of our sitting president–whose death would have been a bigger story than the Michael Jackson’s was.  So, that is what leads me into this week’s Top Twelve.  Whose death today would be the biggest story?

Now, I know this idea sounds morbid, and I truly apologize if anyone is offended by speaking of the potential deaths of living people, but I want to look at it as more of a celebration of the following people’s lives (be it in a good way, a bad way, or most likely a combination of the two–like the great Michael Jackson).  It is certainly saying something, for better or worse, if you leave such an impression on the world that your death is a monumental story.  I believe that the following people’s deaths would be the “biggest” stories (however loosely that is to be defined).  Oh, and since this is a sports site (and an unlimited debate of this caliber would be essentially useless), I am going to limit it to sports figures.

Before we get into this list, I want to mention a few that were under consideration, but missed the final list.  It is an interesting question with the more you think about it because the size of a legacy can depend on many things, but particularly (1) what have you accomplised and (2) how much did you have left to accomplish.  There are some “retired” sports figures on the final list, but if their careers were over, they would have to be the most monumental of figures.  So, people like Larry Bird, Hank Aaron, Wayne Gretzky, Rod Laver, Carl Lewis, and Pele would be humongous stories were they to die today, but their “work” is pretty much complete and they have almost completely backed out of relevancy, so it would be more of a memorial to their careers than have any real impact on daily life. 

The other side of the story–that lost “potential” (see Lenny Bias) factor makes for huge stories and thoughts about “what could have been” really hit home.  But, there is still something to be said for accomplishments as opposed to potential, and people like Rafa Nadal, Tim Lincecum, Blake Griffin, and Mark Sanchez just have not done enough yet to crack the Top Twelve.

Since I can only speak to the American culture, I cannot really speak to the impact of someone like Ronaldo or Kaka would have were they to leave the soccer world today. Another factor of a “big story” is the universal appeal that would have to transcend sports and reach the hearts of everyone–sports fans and non-sports fans, alike. 

This is why guys like Albert Pujols, Roy Halladay, and Chris Paul would be huge stories in the sports world, but not quite would transcend sports enough to reach the Top Twelve. I also gave full consideration to non-players and would have included any of them had I thought they would have been bigger stories than anyone in the Top Twelve. 

And, there were a couple coaches (Bill Belichick, Phil Jackson, Bill Parcells, and Mike Krzyzewksi) that came close, but did not quite have enough, in my opinion.  There were also some owners (Jerry Jones, George Steinbrenner, and Mark Cuban) that would be big stories, but not quite big enough.

And, then there are those that basically “just missed.”  Be it for all the right reasons (Shaq, Peyton Manning, Ken Griffey, Jr.), all the wrong reasons (Roger Clemens, TO, Manny), or a bit of a bizarre combination of reasons (Brett Favre, Lance Armstrong, Phil Mickleson, Mike Tyson).  But, there was only room for twelve.  And, keep in mind, this is a snapshot in time.  This list would be VASTLY different were it done five years ago, just as it would be vastly different five years from now.  Hell, five days from now, everything might change.  In celebrity, like comedy, timing is everything. 

Again, the thought here is what sports figure, were they to pass away today, would be the “biggest” story.  I wish I could phrase it in a way that was less morbid and dark, but I am hoping you understand what I mean and take it to mean a celebration of celebrity–sports and otherwise.

 12). Serena Williams.  Serena clearly fits the bill of “transcending sports.”  She is an international celebrity despite her occupation being, at times, an afterthought.  And, oh by the way, she has 11 Grand Slam titles and is on the short list of greatest female tennis players ever.  Her sister, Venus, is not quite as good at tennis (debatable) and not nearly as internationally famous (indebatable).

11). Michael Phelps.  Arguably, the greatest Olympian of all-time who happens to be 24 years old and gearing up for London in 2012.  His age and past and potential future accomplishments alone would be enough to create one unbelievably huge story, but throw in the controversies in which he has found himself and you have one interesting person and, thus, one humongous story.  And, I can’t tell you what would happen in my home city of Baltimore, which clings to Phelps like he is some combination of Mother Theresa and Jim Thorpe.

10). Michael Jordan.  There is no doubt that, at his prime, Michael Jordan was the biggest sports icon in the world.  In fact, there was probably a period of 10-15 years where he would be the UNQUESTIONABLE #1 on this list.  But, with this being a snapshot and MJ’s relevance to today’s sporting world (a below average NBA executive in Charlotte) waning, I believe that there are nine sports figures whose death would be a larger story today.  Then again, having lived in a rural African village, where most people had never seen an electic light bulb, let me tell you that Michael Jordan’s recognizability stretches to all ends of the globe–still.

9). David Beckham.  Maybe today’s largest example of transcending sports into pop culture–possibly ever–is David Beckham.  His Hollywood marriage, his national revelry in the UK, and his–from what I hear–dashing good looks makes Becks almost the definition of international superstar.  The only reason he is not higher on this list is because it is a tough argument to make that he really has anything left to do on the soccer field–the characteristic for which he originally became famous.

8). Roger Federer.  One short month ago, I probably would have put Federer in the top two, despite being “just a tennis player.”  Imagine the story if a 27-year old, in prime condition, passes away just one Grand Slam title SHY of the all-time record.  That would be the ultimate combination of a superstar in sport and celebrity with a long historical list of accomplishments and still greatness left to achieve.  But, in one month, he won Grand Slams number 14 and 15 and completed his career Grand Slam.  This would still, obviously, be a huge story, but the fact that he has surpassed Sampras means that his biggest accomplishment has been realized.  There is no debate as to who is the greatest tennis player of the Open Era (though, I will heartily debate that Rod Laver, who played prior to the “Open Era,” was better).  A month ago, the debate was still in doubt, so if he left us, it would have never been answered.

7). Magic Johnson.  It was an interesting selection to have Magic ahead of Jordan.  But, the reason I chose this is because of all the intrigue surrounding the life of one Ervin “Magic” Johnson.  Not only was he the idol to pretty much an entire generation of basketball players, but he transformed the whole sport’s image of what a point guard is.  Jordan was the best that ever played, but he was not anything that we had not seen before–he was just better than everyone else.  Magic was a brand-new animal–the 6’9″ jaw-dropping, pass-first point guard.  But, before we get bogged down into a basketball discussion that I will probably lose (because Jordan was clearly a better player and a better champion), let us not forget the HIV situation.  He played an extremely large role–maybe the largest–in bringing the Pandemic to the forefront in the 1990’s.  Magic’s press conference was one of the very few “Where Were You?” moments of my lifetime.  And, because of all of this, Magic’s imprint on this world is undefinably gigantic–and all of this will be relived upon his death, be it of natural causes or as a result of one of the most frightening diseases to ever hit mankind.

6). LeBron James.  I debated where to put LeBron for a while.  I thought about putting him as high as #1, but slipped him back to #6 because he clearly falls into the Lenny Bias category.  Yes, he has accomplished a lot (one MVP, one Finals appearance), but losing him now would clearly put all the focus on “what could have been.”  And, quite frankly, we do not know.  It certainly seems to me that he is going to win multiple NBA championships and has a legitimate chance to go down as the greatest player to ever play the game.  But, let us remember, he is not there yet, and a lot can happen from now until then.  Needless to say, he is an absolute gigantic international celebrity with the world at his fingertips.  This is one of those where if this “snapshot” was taken five years from now, I would be surprised if he was not holding down the top spot.

5). Muhammed Ali.  Yes, I discounted the story size for retired greats like Hank Aaron and Wayne Gretzky, as well as dropping Jordan because of his relative irrelevance today.  But, there is the occasional career that stands on its own merit in a timeless existence.  I thought that Jordan or Bird or Joe Montana may do that, but it does not seem to be that way.  Then there is Muhammed Ali.  Maybe it was because he played an individual sport–and dominated it like no one else ever has.  Maybe it was because of his colossal personality that was put on stage for all the world to see and judge, criticize and revere.  Maybe it was because he was an overly opinionated man who came to fame in an era of social and civic turbulence.  Maybe it was because of his fascinatingly tragic physical demise from Parkinson’s Disease in the, now, end stages of his life.  And, maybe, just maybe, there is just something about his nakedly honest, guttural bravado that allows us all to adhere some of the greatness in him–both in and out of the ring–to ourselves in our simple, daily, nondescript lives.  Either way, the death of Muhammed Ali will be an incredibly heart-wrenching moment with stories and memories traversing the majority of five wonderfully troubled decades of Americana.

4). Derek Jeter.  The new “Pride of the Yankees,” Derek Jeter has four World Series championships and a world of fans.  He does not exactly fit the billing of “controversial” because he has, despite a career spent entirely in the fishbowl of The Bronx, kept his nose clean and played every day with a youthful desire and competitive fire.  He is heading rapidly towards the end of his career, so you may argue that his best days are behind him, but the reason I think he is still high on this list is because the Yankees are always in contention, so there may be more championships for him to win, and, more importantly for this conversation, he has an outside shot at catching Pete Rose for the all-time hits record.  If he were to play his last game today, we would never know if he would have ever dethroned the Hit King.  Plus, throw in the fact that he is the sports legend for a generation in the largest media market in the country, and this story would be gigantic.

3). Tom Brady.  A surprisingly similar career to Jeter’s, if you think about it.  He is in a major media market and has combined an incredible track record of winning with an equally incredible track record of avoiding negative publicity (save for leaving his ex-girlfriend as a single mother, which because of how it has been handled, has not seemed to affect his image at all).  Arguably the greatest quarterback that has ever lived, Brady is still only 31 years old and in the prime of his football playing life.  The Patriots are, again, a preseason favorite to win the Super Bowl (which would be his 5th), and the NFL was not the same without him last season, as he was out with an injury.  Added to all of his on-field success is his off-the-field publicity.  He has gone from one supermodel to another and is oft found on the covers of major tabloids, but not for anything other than a seemingly normal love life with a very famous woman.

2). Kobe Bryant.  One of the very few lists on which I would place Kobe ahead of LeBron, Kobe comes in at #2.  Maybe I am blowing this one out of proportion, but the combination of the past successes (4 NBA titles, a Gold Medal, and an MVP), potential for future successes (he is only 31), and a career that has been as polarizing as any public figure, possibly ever.  The classy persona that enabled him to transcend basketball player to become an international celebrity was torn apart by rape allegations in Colorado.  The alleged rape and the admitted adultery did not take away his eloquence or worldly, upper-class upbringing, but it did strip away his clean-cut image and tarnish his reputation forever.  But even before there was any ammunition, there was a surprisingly large contingent of Kobe-haters (a group of which I am gladly a part).  Whichever you choose–love or hate–you have to admit that Kobe is one of the more fascinating characters to hit the sports stage in a very long time.  I could spend an entire column discussing his intrigue (but I will not–at least not now).  Let us just say that this intrigue coupled with immense past success and an incredible opportunity for future success, makes Kobe a gigantic figure in the world of sports and celebrity today.  If he were to leave us today, the world may not mourn anywhere near the extent it would for some of the others on this list, but, in my opinion, it would take notice and be interested in the story on a larger scale than anyone else in the sporting world, except…

1). Tiger Woods.  And, the #1 was relatively easy.  Tiger has the whole package of celebrity-ism, in the prime of his career, with uncountable successes, and still monumental achievements yet unrealized.  The greatest golfer to ever walk the earth (and one of the most publicized, marketed, and trumpeted people ever) has not yet set the record for major championships and may not have even come close to his eventual stardom.  Add in the fact that he is on the doorstep of becoming the first athlete in history to make a BILLION dollars and is, oh by the way, married to a celebrity and the father of two soon-to-be-famous young children.  I don’t even want to think about it, but a celebrity death of this magnitude may rival John Lennon, Lady Di, and even Michael Jackson.  Probably falling just short of John F. Kennedy or Abraham Lincoln.

Again, let us hope that it will not be for a very, very long time that any of the aforementioned celebrity athletes faces the same legacy questions that are now thrown on the careers of Michael Jackson, Farah Fawcett, and Steve McNair.  Let us take the time to be thankful that we have a chance to appreciate–in their times–these fascinating personalities–complete with their human flaws perfectly complementing their seemingly immortal athletic abilities.

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